COVID-19 Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor - 27 November 2020 - Deloitte
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COVID-19 Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 27 November 2020
Summary of findings
Despite the substantial drop in GDP, equity markets have recovered most of the lost
ground from the very sharp decline following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic
Capital markets Development of AEX and MSCI Europe since 01-01-2020
• Equity markets have recovered most of the lost ground from the very sharp decline 110
in March 2020 following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. 100 -0.5%
• The decline in market prices in October 2020 (a.o. driven by the surge in number of -2.7%
90
COVID-19 cases) has been more than offset by the recent stock market increase
80
following the news that several vaccines are expected to successfully enter the
market in early 2021. 70
AEX
• Looking at returns, per segment quite some variance is observed, with winners 60
MSCI Europe Index
particularly in the Information Technology segment, as these companies have been 50
able to adapt quickly to the shift to home-working and benefit from the accelerated 01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020 01-11-2020
digitalisation of economies following COVID-19. The long-term impact of the (partial) Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis
lockdowns remains uncertain, but all sectors and businesses will be forced to adapt
and change as economies recover. MSCI Europe - Most vs. least affected segments*
Economic outlook and analyst expectations Information Tech.: +4.1% Energy: -38.5%
• The economic fallout following COVID-19 has led to a substantial decrease in GDP
Health Care: +3.0% Real Estate: -22.0%
projections for 2020 in the Eurozone.
• Due to the high uncertainty surrounding the development of the COVID-19 crisis, Industrials: -1.7% Financials: -14.1%
there is a great variation in economic scenarios developed by economists. Despite * Reflects share price impact since 01-01-2020 (median impact MSCI Europe is -2.7%)
the surge in number of cases in many European countries, a ‘V-shaped’ economic
recovery seems to have become more likely - or implicitly assumed by markets -
with the recent news of the expected availability of vaccines. Revenue estimates by analysts** - MSCI Europe
120
116.3
• Contrary to the increase in stock markets, projections of equity analysts have further Estimate per 01-01-2020
dropped compared to April 2020. They currently assume a 5.9% decline in 2020 Estimate per 23-11-2020
110.4
revenues for the companies in the MSCI Europe Index (1.9% as per April 2020). 110
106.3
• Equity analysts have decreased their EBITDA 2020 estimates for companies in the 103.1
106.9
MSCI Europe Index by 11.5% (compared to the estimate per 1 January 2020).
100 102.1
• We observe quite some variation between segments, with the large caps in Health 94.1
97.7
Care and Information Technology even expected to experience growth in 2020 (on
average). Also, more variation exists in the expected EBITDA estimates by different 90
analysts for the same company. This variation corresponds to the uncertainty 2019AC 2020FC 2021FC 2022FC 2023FC
surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on the (recovery of the) economy and even ** Reflects median revenue growth expected by equity analysts for companies in MSCI
Europe Index
more so on individual companies.
Source: Capital IQ, International Monetary Fund, Deloitte Analysis
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 1
Summary of findings
The volatility in market inputs and uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 still
require care for consistency and more professional judgement in valuations than before
Trading multiples EV/EBITDA 2020 & 2021 – Median MSCI Europe Index
• In March 2020, EV/EBITDA 2020 trading multiples declined sharply after the decrease +9.8%
13x
in stock prices (whilst 2020 EBITDA estimates were relatively unchanged). Due to the 11.8x
recovery in stock markets and the drop in EBITDA 2020 estimates, EV/EBITDA 2020 12x
10.8x
trading multiples are currently above their observed levels per year-end 2019. 11x
• In these times of market and economic volatility, the use of multiples becomes more 10x 10.6x
10.2x
challenging and often yields less meaningful or inconclusive results. Therefore, extra 9x
care is required and consistency in reporting periods and normalisations become
8x
even more important. Also, forward-looking multiples (if based on consistent ‘post- EV/EBITDA 2020
7.8x
7.4x
crisis’ EBITDA estimates for 2021 or 2022) likely yield more meaningful results. 7x
EV/EBITDA 2021 +4.8%
6x
DCF analyses 01-07-2019 01-10-2019 01-01-2020 01-04-2020 01-07-2020 01-10-2020
• As the earnings estimates have gradually decreased, whilst share prices recovered, Development in MSCI Europe & 2020 earnings estimates
the sharp initial increase in ERMP has normalised. 110
• Although a company WACC might have changed, a DCF analysis also requires the 100 -2.7%
financial forecasts to reflect the new economic reality. Due to the ability to model the 90
uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on a company’s performance in 80
financial scenarios, DCF analyses have become even more important. 70
-33.3%
60
Reconciling results MSCI Europe Index
50
• The variation and volatility in financial forecasts and market inputs require care for 40
2020 Net Earnings expectations
consistency and more professional judgement. A bigger variance in valuation ranges 01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020 01-11-2020
also increases the likelihood of a discrepancy in value perception between buyers and
sellers in transactions, or between current market pricing and results obtained in fair Financial scenarios and corroborating results
(market) value analyses (based on a long-term ‘value in use’ perspective).
• Despite these challenges, the need for and relevance of valuations often increase in
Scenarios
economic crises (for example in relation to financial restructurings, goodwill
DCF
impairment tests, complex / distressed M&A and shareholder disputes).
Multiples
Contacts Maurits van Maren Jeroen van der Wal Old Forecast
Partner | M&A | Valuation & Modelling Partner | M&A | Valuation & Modelling New Scenarios
Email: mvanmaren@deloitte.nl Email: jvanderwal@deloitte.nl
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Enterprise value
Tel: +31620789518 Tel: +31655853480
Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 2
COVID-19 - Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor
DSM – Discussion document
3
Capital markets
Equity markets have recovered most of the lost ground from the very sharp decline in
March 2020 following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by the recent
news that several vaccines are expected to enter the market in early 2021
• The pandemic has birthed a new Development of AEX and MSCI Europe Indices (01-01-2020 to 23-11-2020) Change in share
price since
normal for businesses and 01-01-2020
society. The long-term impact of 105
100 AEX
the (partial) lockdowns remains -0.5%
95
uncertain, but all sectors and
90 MSCI EUR
businesses will be forced to
85 -2.7%
adapt and change as economies 80
recover. 75
• Equity markets have recovered 70
65
most of the lost ground from the 23-03-2020
60
very sharp decline in March 2020 MSCI Europe lowest point
following the outbreak of the 5
-35.4%
COVID-19 pandemic. The MSCI 0
Europe Index has lost only 2.7% 01-01-2020 01-02-2020 01-03-2020 01-04-2020 01-05-2020 01-06-2020 01-07-2020 01-08-2020 01-09-2020 01-10-2020 01-11-2020
between 1 January 2020 and 23
Amsterdam Exchange Index MSCI Europe Index
November 2020. Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis
• The decline in October 2020
Share price impact MSCI Europe per segment* -
(driven by the surge in number • The Energy segment has experienced most value decrease,
of COVID-19 cases) has been also driven by the decline in oil prices
Energy -38.5%
more than offset by the recent • The Real Estate segment is also severely hit due to the
increase in stock market Real Estate -27.0% expected negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the
following the news that multiple Financials -16.6% demand for commercial real estate (offices, retail, hotels)
vaccines are expected to enter Communication Services
-11.2%
the market in early 2021. (Telecom and Media)
• The Consumer Discretionary segment, that i.a. includes
Consumer Staples
-5.5% hotels, leisure companies and retail chains (which have been
(incl. Food & Beverage)
• Looking at returns per segment,
MSCI Europe -2.7% directly impacted by the lockdowns and other restrictions),
quite some variance is observed, was initially hit hard, however did recently show the biggest
with winners particularly in the Consumer Discretionary -2.6%
recovery following the news of the vaccines
Technology segment, as these Utilities -2.3%
companies have been able to +
Materials -1.8% • The Information Technology segment benefitted from the
adapt quickly to the shift to Industrials accelerated digitalisation of businesses following COVID-19
-1.7%
home-working and benefit from (incl. Transportation)
• Other segments that are less directly impacted by the drop in
the accelerated digitalisation of Health Care 3.0% consumer spending, like Utilities and Health Care, have also
economies following COVID-19. Information Technology 4.1% performed relatively well
* Based on the average share price impact from 01-01-2020 to 23-11-2020
of companies within each segment of the MSCI Europe Index
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 4
Capital markets
Although capital market volatility is much lower than the peak levels in March 2020, the
VIX index is still above term average, which reflects above average market uncertainty
• The equity market volatility, CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) CDS spreads – Investment grade bonds
reflected in the VIX index, has
decreased after the spike 90 1.6%
1.5% 1.5%
observed in March 2020 80 1.4%
following the COVID-19 70
1.2%
outbreak. 60
1.0%
• Whilst current volatility has 50
stabilised, a VIX of 22.7 as per 40
0.8%
23 November 2020 remains 0.6%
0.5%
30
elevated compared to long-term
0.4%
averages and still reflects an 20
22.7 0.4%
environment with above 10 0.2%
average uncertainty 0 0.0%
surrounding the financial and 01-2008 01-2010 01-2012 01-2014 01-2016 01-2018 01-2020 01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020 01-11-2020
economic outcome of the Note: The presented spread is the CDS mid spread of CDS contracts with a tenor of 5
S&P VIX
COVID-19 outbreak. years, investment grade bonds in the US provided by Credit Suisse Group AG
• Similar to the stock markets,
EUR bond yields - All Corporates* 10 years Oil price development – WTI and Brent
bond markets have largely
EUR per barrel
recovered after 23 March 2020.
18% 80
16.1%
• Oil prices, that dropped sharply 16% 70
in March due to the anticipated
14%
price war between Saudi Arabia 60
and Russia (in addition to the 12%
50 46.0
expected decline in demand 10%
40
following the COVID-19 crisis), 8%
43.1
have partly recovered. 5.9% 30
6%
20
4% 3.6%
2.1% 2.8%
2% 10
0.7% 0.9%
0% 0.4% 0
01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020 01-11-2020 01-2019 04-2019 07-2019 10-2019 01-2020 04-2020 07-2020 10-2020
AAA BBB BB B WTI (ICE) Brent (ICE)
* Yield on composite bond index including EUR based corporate bonds derived by Capital IQ
Source: Capital IQ, Credit Suisse, Deloitte Analysis
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 5
Economic outlook
GDP in the Eurozone will drop substantially in 2020. With the news of the expected
availability of vaccines, a V-shaped economic scenario seems to become more likely
• The economic fallout following Historical and expected annual GDP growth (%) Expected indexed real GDP growth Eurozone
COVID-19 has led to a Eurozone
substantial decrease in Q4-2019=100
economic growth projections. 6%
5.2%
105
102.3
4%
• Due to the high uncertainty 2.5% 3.5% 100
99.2 99.3
1.9%
surrounding the development of 2% 1.3% 96.2
the COVID-19 crisis, there is a 95 93.5
0% 92.9 95.8
great variation in economic
ING
scenarios developed by -2% 90 92.1 91.6
ABN AMRO
economists. -4%
Rabobank 85
• Despite the surge in number of -6% IMF -7.1% ING base case
cases in many European 80
ING case (restrictions tightened but lockdown avoided)
countries, a ‘V-shaped’ -8%
economic recovery seems to -10% -8.9% 75
ING case (national lockdowns return)
have become more likely - or 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2022
implicitly assumed by markets - Source: : IMF October 2020, ING Bank, ING November 2020, Rabobank September 2020, ABN AMRO September 2020, Deloitte analysis
with the recent news of the
expected availability of Revenue estimates by analysts* - MSCI Europe Estimated revenue impact per segment* – MSCI Europe
vaccines.
120
116.3 Energy -39.2%
• Projections of equity analysts 9.0% decrease compared to
115 estimate per 01-01-20 Consumer Discretionary -13.2%
have further dropped compared
110.4
to April 2020. They currently 110
Materials -11.3%
assume a 5.9% decline in 2020 106.3 Industrials -7.8%
revenues for the companies in 105 103.1 106.9 MSCI Europe -5.9%
the MSCI Europe Index (1.9% Real Estate -2.9%
100 102.1
as per April 2020). Δ -9.0%
Utilities -2.1%
95 97.7 Consumer Staples -1.9%
• We also observe quite some
94.1
variation between segments, 90 5.9% decrease in estimated 2020
Communication Services -1.6%
with the large caps in Health revenues (compared to 2019) Information Technology 2.5%
Estimate per 01-01-2020
Care and Information 85 Health Care 5.0%
Estimate per 23-11-2020
Technology even expected to Financials n.m.
80
experience growth in 2020 (on 2019AC 2020FC 2021FC 2022FC 2023FC -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
average).
* Reflects median revenue growth expected by equity analysts for companies in * Based on the median revenue growth for 2020 for companies within each segment
MSCI Europe Index of MSCI Europe Index (estimate per 23-11-2020)
Source: Capital IQ, IMF, ING Bank, Deutsche Bank, Deloitte Analysis
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 6Impact on valuations: Trading multiples
Due to the recovery in stock markets and the drop in EBITDA 2020 estimates,
EV/EBITDA 2020 trading multiples are above their observed levels per year-end 2019
• In March 2020, EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 2020 & 2021 – median MSCI Europe Conclusions & recommendations
2020 trading multiples declined
sharply after the decrease in 13x +9.8% Elements in the use of multiples that can be particularly
stock prices (whilst 2020 11.8x challenging in economic crises:
12x
earnings estimates were • Decrease in comparability of LTM EBIT(DA) 2020 between
relatively unchanged, see also 11x
10.8x companies. Also, one-off effects and low / negative
next page). EBIT(DA) can lead to multiples being less or not meaningful
10x
10.6x • Time-lag in earnings estimates can more easily lead to a
• Thereafter, following the 10.2x mismatch with the underlying profit of the subject company
recovery of market values and
9x • Geographical and business model differences might become
decrease in 2020 EBITDA more important and be given more consideration
estimates, EV/EBITDA 2020 8x
7.8x Therefore, extra care is required in applying multiples:
trading multiples increased and
7.4x • Consistency in reporting periods, timing of earnings
are currently on average above 7x EV/EBITDA 2020 estimates and normalisations become even more important
their levels experienced per +4.8%
EV/EBITDA 2021 • Despite uncertainty in EBITDA outlook, forward-looking
year-end 2019 (c. 10% 6x
multiples (if based on consistent ‘post-crisis’ EBITDA
increase). 01-07-2019 01-10-2019 01-01-2020 01-04-2020 01-07-2020 01-10-2020
estimates for 2021 or 2022) could yield more meaningful
results
• This requires extra caution in
the use of valuation multiples.
Like in other economic crises, Change in EV/EBITDA 2020 per segment* EV/EBITDA 2020 per segment (as per 23-11-2020)
the use of valuation multiples Real Estate -6.5% Real Estate 22.9x
becomes more challenging and Communication Services 1.6% Information Technology 20.6x
the outcome can more easily Utilities 4.2% Health Care 15.0x
be less meaningful (please Consumer Staples 7.3% Industrials 13.8x
refer to the text box on the
Materials 9.0% Consumer Staples 11.9x
right).
Health Care 9.4% MSCI Europe 11.8x
• The average EV/EBITDA 2021 MSCI Europe 9.8% Consumer Discretionary 11.6x
trading multiple is around the Industrials 26.7% Utilities 9.7x
same level as per year-end Energy 30.8% Materials 8.0x
2019 (as the 2021 EBITDA
Consumer Discretionary 35.7% Communication Services 7.6x
estimates have not declined
Information Technology 42.1% Energy 6.8x
that much).
Financials n.m. Financials n.m.
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
* Change in median EV/EBITDA 2020 trading multiples per segment since
01-01-2020 as per 23-11-2020
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 7Impact on valuations: Equity Market Risk Premium
As the earnings estimates have gradually decreased, whilst share prices recovered, the
sharp initial increase in EMRP has normalised. This requires the financial forecasts to
reflect the new economic reality, including the adverse impact of COVID-19
• The initial sharp decline in share Development in MSCI Europe Index & 2020 Earnings yield MSCI Europe Index (E*/P)
prices, and related uncertainty earnings estimates
surrounding the impact of 110 10.0% 9.3%
COVID-19 on future cash flows, 100 9.0%
-2.7%
increased the equity returns 90
8.0%
required by investors. 80
7.0% 6.4%
• Our proprietary model indicated 70
-33.3%
6.0% 5.5%
an increase in the EMRP per end 60
MSCI Europe Index
of March 2020 for the Eurozone 50 5.0%
2021 Earnings Yield
2020 Net Earnings expectations
by 1.5% - 2.5% compared to 40 4.0%
pre-crisis levels (however this 01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020 01-11-2020 01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020
was still based on unadjusted * Based on expected net earnings for 2021
Change in net earnings estimates by analysts*
earnings forecasts at that time).
2020 2021 2022 2023
This was also reflected by the 0.0%
initial increase in expected
Conclusions & recommendations
earnings yields. 10.0% -8.7%
-11.9%
• As the analysts’ earnings
20.0%
estimates have gradually -18.6%
decreased over Q2 of 2020 • We observed that the initial sharp decline in share prices –
30.0% and related uncertainty and risk surrounding the economic
(reflecting the new economic * Reflects decrease in total Net Income estimates
between 01-01-2020 and 23-11-2020 (for all impact of COVID-19 – initially increased the Equity Market
reality) - whilst share prices -33.3%
companies in MSCI Europe Index) Risk Premium (EMRP).
40.0%
recovered - the EMRP decreased
(the earnings yield per October • As the earnings estimates have gradually decreased - whilst
Change in implied EMRP* since 01-01-2020 share prices recovered - the sharp increase in EMRP has
2020 is even below the level
normalised. We observe a normalised increase in EMRP by
observed in January 2020). 3.0%
2.8%
EMRP 0.4% - 0.8% (as per September 30, 2020). More than ever
2.5%
• Our proprietary model still this is a moving target (due to the volatility in share prices
2.0% Normalized EMRP
indicates an increase in EMRP as and quickly changing earnings estimates of equity analysts).
1.5%
per 30 September 2020 of c. 1.0% • We note that this requires the financial forecasts to reflect
0.8%
0.4% - 0.8% for the Eurozone 0.5% 0.4%
the new economic reality, including the adverse impact of
compared to the level as per 0.0% COVID-19 (ideally by using several scenarios, see next
year-end 2019. This is also the -0.5% slide).
01-01-2020 01-03-2020 01-05-2020 01-07-2020 01-09-2020
result of a decrease in the risk-
free rate compared to the level * Based on proprietary model that calculates implied expected equity risk premium
per 1 January 2020. (i.a. based on earnings estimates and certain cashflow adjustments)
Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 8Impact on valuations: DCF analysis
A DCF analysis requires modelling the uncertainty and specific effects of COVID-19 on
companies by developing multiple financial scenarios
• Although the WACC might have EBITDA estimates by analysts* - MSCI Europe Conclusions & recommendations
changed, a DCF analysis
130
requires revisiting financial * Reflects median EBITDA 124.2
growth expected by equity 121.5
forecasts in current market analysts for companies in
• Consideration should be given to the specific effects of
circumstances. 120
MSCI Europe Index COVID-19 and the resulting economic impact on the subject
113.5
company’s financial future.
• Equity analysts have decreased 107.8
116.2
110
their EBITDA 2020 estimates by • Due to the uncertainties surrounding the impact - and
109.5
11.5% (since 1 January 2020). differences in impact between companies - a DCF analysis
100 becomes even more important (also in view of the
More importantly, the impact 94.3
102.3 Estimate per 01-01-2020
challenges in using multiples).
varies substantially between Estimate per 23-11-2020
segments and companies, and 90 • Financial projections will need to be updated and ideally
2019AC 2020FC 2021FC 2022FC 2023FC multiple scenarios are considered (reflecting variations in the
quickly changes over time.
duration and magnitude of the crisis).
• Also, we observe more variation Change in EBITDA 2020 estimates* - per segment
in the expected EBITDA by Energy -43.4%
different analysts for the same Consumer Discretionary -29.2%
Forecast - scenario Value ranges
company. This variation Industrials -19.7%
corresponds to the uncertainty Materials -11.7%
Scenarios
surrounding the impact of
DCF
MSCI Europe -11.5%
COVID-19 on the economy and
Consumer Staples -11.5%
individual companies. This
Information Technology -8.4%
requires modelling this
Multiples
Utilities -3.8% Old Forecast
uncertainty by developing
Communication Services -3.6% New Scenarios
financial scenarios. * Reflects decrease in EBITDA
Health Care 2020 estimates between 01- -3.6%
• The volatility will also increase Real Estate
01-2020 and 23-11-2020
(MSCI Europe and per -2.5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Enterprise value
variance in concluded value Financials segment) n.m.
ranges, increasing the likelihood • It is important to have consistency in the used discount rates
of a discrepancy in value Variation* in EBITDA estimates per company
and financial forecast applied: if the risks and adverse
perception between buyers and -3.8% 5.7% economic effects have been properly incorporated in the
sellers, or between current Estimates perG
cash flow scenarios, only a modest increase in EMRP is
market pricing and results 01-01-2020 needed.
obtained in fair (market) value -8.7% +7.9%
• The uncertainty of and volatility in various forecasts,
analyses (based on a long-term Estimates per
valuation parameters and market inputs requires more
23-11-2020
‘value in use’ perspective). professional judgement in valuations than before.
* Variation to lowest and highest estimate from the median EBITDA estimate in a set
of analysts estimates for same company (average all companies in MSCI Europe Index)
Source: Capital IQ, Deloitte Analysis
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 9Deloitte Valuations & Modelling the Netherlands
Jeroen van der Wal Maurits van Maren Pieter van den Berg
Partner Valuations & Modelling Partner Valuations & Modelling Director Valuations & Modelling
Direct: +31 (0)88 288 0608 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 2642 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 1554
Mobile: +31 (0)6 5585 3480 Mobile: +31 (0)6 2078 9518 Mobile: +31 (0)6 1258 0326
Email: jvanderwal@deloitte.nl Email: mvanmaren@deloitte.nl Email: pvandenberg@deloitte.nl
Matthijs Wouterse Marina Hristova Ralf Meulenberg
Director Valuations & Modelling Senior Manager Valuations & Modelling Senior Manager Valuations & Modelling
Direct: +31 (0)88 288 7968 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 1655 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 4588
Mobile: +31 (0)6 8355 5194 Mobile: +31 (0)6 5261 5048 Mobile: +31 (0)6 1234 2721
Email: mwouterse@deloitte.nl Email: mhristova@deloitte.nl Email: rmeulenberg@deloitte.nl
Robbert Douglas Casper Schiernecker Joren Verkade
Senior Manager Valuations & Modelling Senior Manager Valuations & Modelling Senior Manager Valuations & Modelling
Direct: +31 (0)88 288 7289 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 7928 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 1664
Mobile: +31 (0)6 2319 8640 Mobile: +31 (0)6 8355 5104 Mobile: +31 (0)6 8201 9355
Email: rodouglas@deloitte.nl Email: cschiernecker@deloitte.nl Email: jverkade@deloitte.nl
Marijn van Kempen Chloe Peng Niels Coppoolse
Manager Valuations & Modelling Manager Valuations & Modelling Manager Valuations & Modelling
Direct: +31 (0)88 288 3857 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 4886 Direct: +31 (0)88 288 7795
Mobile: +31 (0)6 2079 9194 Mobile: +31 (0)6 8201 2242 Mobile: +31 (0)6 8333 9608
Email: mvankempen@deloitte.nl Email: chpeng@deloitte.nl Email: ncoppoolse@deloitte.nl
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 10Glossary of terms and References
Glossary of terms References
AEX Amsterdam Exchange Index Capital IQ
i.a. inter alia (“among others”) Credit Suisse Group AG
c. circa Deutsche Bank Research (2020), Impact of Covid-19 on the global economy: Beyond
the abyss
CBOE Chicago Board Options Exchange
ING (2020), Four scenarios for the global economy after Covid-19
CDS Credit Default Swap
International Monetary Fund (2020), World Economic Outlook: The Great Lockdown
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Taxation
EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and
Amortisation
EMRP Equity Market Risk Premium
EUR Euro
EV Enterprise Value
FC Forecasted
GDP Gross Domestic Product
ICE Intercontinental Exchange
IMF International Monetary Fund
LTM Last Twelve Months
MSCI Morgan Stanley Capital International
VIX Volatility Index
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WTL West Texas Light
© 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 11Disclaimer Disclaimer Notice on behalf of S&P, its affiliates and their suppliers on information contained in this report: Reproduction of any information, data or material, including ratings, from S&P, its affiliates and their suppliers, that is contained in this document (“Content”) in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the relevant party. Such party, its affiliates and suppliers (“Content Providers”) do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any Content and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such Content. In no event shall Content Providers be liable for any damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content. A reference to a particular investment or security, a rating or any observation concerning an investment that is part of the Content is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security, does not address the suitability of an investment or security and should not be relied on as investment advice. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact. © 2020 Deloitte The Netherlands COVID-19 – Valuation & Capital Markets Impact Monitor 12
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