COVID-19 Review of mid- to long-term implications - 11 May 2020 - Weforum
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COVID-19
Review of mid- to long-term implications
11 May 2020
Prof Greg Clark CBE, Senior Advisor & Global Head, Future Cities & New Industries
Commercial Financial Institution.
63 Countries
HSBC presence in cities globally c 300 cities
1865
Trade and cross border finance.
Global Network
236,000
Together We Thrive
Birmingham
Dusseldorf
London
Paris
New York
City Head Count Beijing
Hong Kong 33,819 New Delhi
Shanghai
London 19,983
Abu Dhabi Dubai Shenzhen
Paris 6,091
Cuauhtemoc, Mexico City Hong Kong
Shanghai 4,849 Mumbai
Birmingham 4,209
Mexico City 3,894 Kuala Lumpur Singapore
New York 3,763
Singapore 3,566
Dusseldorf 3,268
Buenos Aires 3,181
Sao Paulo
Dubai 3,040
Kuala Lumpur 2,733 Sydney
Mumbai 2,281
Buenos Aires
Sydney 1,168
Shenzhen 1,074
Beijing 1,016
Sao Paulo 180
Abu Dhabi 160
New Delhi 139
Total 98,414
1
Note:
1. 2017 data. Bubble size proportional to GDP. Based on combining JLL data on GDP per capita with UN data on population size.
Over 4.0m COVID-19 cases confirmed and 279k+ fatalities with countries at different
stages of the “curve” and varying approaches to measures to counter the pandemic
Daily deaths with COVID-19 (7-day rolling average), by number of days since 3 daily deaths first recorded
# of daily cases
As of 10-May-20, c.4.0m cases
confirmed globally and over
2,000 US 279k fatalities from the virus
1,000 Very limited overall umber of
UK
500 fatalities in Singapore (20), Cases within countries are not
Brazil France Italy Taiwan (6), and Hong Kong (4) evenly spread. Lombardy in Italy
200
Canada as well as Spain’s capital eclipsed
100 Germany Spain
India Iran Wuhan in China as the most
50 Russia Turkey severely affected parts of the world
20 Ireland
Japan
10 The hardest-hit urban centre in the
5 Austria world is the New York state. The
2 China state’s death toll is rising faster than
South
1 Norway (official1) in any other subnational region
Australia Korea
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Delayed spread of the COVID-19
virus in the Southern hemisphere
Days since average daily deaths passed 3
Countries took different approaches to counter the pandemic, however most countries went into lockdown to a large extent
South
China Italy France Germany Spain UK USA
Korea
Lockdown measures2
Shared spaces
Government measures during the
measures
Travel bans/restrictions
Remote working/learning
lockdown phase
Cancellation of public events
Mass testing
Personal health
measures
Ramp-up of medical care3
Availability of PPE
Mobile contact-tracing4
In development In debate
Sources: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Governments’ official communication, McKinsey,
OECD, Press articles, Worldometers
Notes: Data as of 10-May-20; Fatality rates may be under- or over-estimated depending on countries’ capacity of mass
2 3. Ramp-up of medical care includes access to universal care, number of ICUs, number of ventilators and respirators, national vs
testing regional healthcare management, air/train patient transfer between regions, healthcare crisis management, etc.
1. May be subject to revision 4. Data privacy to be ensured through: open-source algorithm code; data to be stored only on smartphones; anonymised;
2. Incl. restrictive nature of lockdown, citizen acceptance, and enforceable nature of the measures (e.g. fines) encrypted, downloadable if required only on health authorities’ servers, removed in mid-term (c. 6 months), etc.Potential exit scenarios – Risk-adjusted de-confinement strategies provide actionable
measures to gradually reopen economic and social activities
Five building blocks of de-confinement scenarios Imperatives for “timeboxing” the virus and economic impact
1 Scientific
Many countries have set up expert committees to
assess containment measures and evaluate Expand
management
gradual de-confinement plans protection, care Monitoring
The focus is on studying options to eradicate the and testing De- and cure
virus and avoid potential next waves post de- capacities confinement research
confinement Contain the virus
as fast as A1 A2/3
possible Timeline
Extensive
2 provision of
Uninterrupted provision of face masks and
hand sanitizers at large scale for the population
A4 A5
medical and Domestic insourcing of production mainly
hygiene PPE1 through manufacturing lines’ reconversion if Life
required "Timebox" safeguarding
Massive increase of import capacity of critical measures
Socio- B5 Livelihood
basic medical and hygiene supplies economic protection
shock Remain strategies
Hospital and
3 testing capacity
Reorganisation of domestic care systems with
substantial add-ons of ICUs and ventilators
B1 B4 vigilant
Timeline
Support people and
ramp up Loosening of restrictions would require a massive B2/3 Prepare to
businesses affected
increase in testing capacity (both RT-PCR2 lab scale the
by lockdowns Prepare to get back
tests and serological home kits) recovery
to work safely when
Focus on high-quality kits with low risks of false
the virus abates
negatives
4 Gradual risk- De-confinement or lockdown exit would not Next wave risks may waste lockdown efforts
adjusted de- be for everyone at the same time
confinement Some age groups, regions and business The potential for future waves is now being observed in Asia and new arrivals from
strategies functions can resume activity before others with overseas represent a significant risk
prioritisation of key workers essential for vital Mitigant measures include restrictions on overseas arrivals and resumed social
functions and young / least vulnerable distancing as well as quarantine for people coming in from overseas
populations in the least affected areas Examples from Asia:
- China: Re-closes all cinemas after re-opening post lockdown due to 2nd wave fears
Post lockdown
5 supporting
Rigorous contact tracking via mobile phone - Hong Kong: Shut down recreational facilities, mandated civil servants to restart working
apps and operators can help monitor citizens’
measures (e.g. from home and encouraged private firms to follow the same approach
mobile tracking) movements (provided privacy to be ensured3)
- Singapore: Re-introduced social distancing measures, banning short-term visitors from
Monitoring would allow for quick reaction, crucial
entering or transiting in the city and imposing a 14-day quarantine for returning residents
in order to isolate potential new infected clusters
and avoid new waves - Thailand: Imposed closure of shopping malls, non-food markets, cinemas, theatres and
most other non-essential and public venues
Sources: McKinsey, Press articles
Notes:
3
1. Personal protective equipment
2. RT-PCR tests: Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction technique used to measure the amount / concentration of SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19 virus code) gene expression in laboratory testing
3. E.g. Singapore is removing tracking apps and related personal data after 6 monthsPeak of the COVID-19 impact on GDP in H1 with a sharp recovery in H2, however a
resurgence of the virus and lockdown measures could prolong the recession period
Developed markets: Anticipating a V-shaped recovery, but level of Emerging markets: Disparity in recovery and length of GDP decline,
GDP will still be below previous trend with recovery post 2020 at a lower GDP level
Significant drop in Q1 and even 5.8%
0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 5.8%
greater in Q2 as domestic demand In the first two months of the year,
drops and labour market worsens
5.7% industrial and service sector
with temporary lay-offs
5.8% output dropped by 13% y-o-y
5.0%
China1
(1.8%) Level of GDP in 2021 c.5% below while nominal measures such as
US
10.0% the level that would have been (6.8%) 7.0% retail sales dropped by even more
achieved pre COVID-19 5.9% Global downturn in Q2 will impact
(6.5%) 6.0% (11.3%) Magnitude of defaults and 3.0%4 6.5% 3.0% China’s ability to grow as demand
bankruptcies will be important for may be limited
2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 longevity of crisis 2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% V-shaped recovery assuming 4.0% Indonesia: Negative GDP growth
4.2%
shutdowns easing in May 4.0% from Q2 ‘20, GDP growth expected
Once restrictions are eased, 3.7% to rebound in ’21
Eurozone
ASEAN1,2
economic output could swiftly Malaysia, Thailand and
(2.6%) 2.9% return close to where it would Singapore: Negative GDP growth
7.9% otherwise have been 0.0% across all quarters, with GDP growth
(6.4%) 6.1% High sovereign debts in certain (2.0%) 6.0% (3.1%) expected to rebound in 2021
(11.2%) countries may form longer term
(1.7%) (2.0%) Philippines: GDP growth halted but
risk continuing to grow
2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 6.2%
6.3%
5.6%
Decline in Q1 smaller than 5.4% Large population and insufficient
(1.2%) 3.8% Eurozone with spread of COVID- infrastructure likely to prolong
India1
UK
19 behind mainland Europe, COVID-19 impact in India
9.2% 2.0%
however a greater impact in Q2 Big dislocation of the labour force
(5.5%) 6.3% 0.0% 8.1% 5.9% will be slow to normalize
(12.7%) (6.1%) (1.9%)
2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% Argentina: decline of 6.1% in 2020
0.2% Growth momentum was already 0.4% 0.8% and rebound of +3.0% in 2021
weak pre COVID-19 Brazil: decline of 2.7% in 2020 and
(0.6%) 4.9% Impact of cancellation of rebound of +2.6% in 2021
LatAm3
Japan
Olympics 2020, with rebound in 4.4% Chile: decline of 2.5% in 2020 and
(5.6%) 1.3% 2021 (3.3%) rebound of +2.5% in 2021
Deflation environment persists in 3.3% Colombia: decline of 4.1% in 2020
(4.1%) 2.8% Japan with significant demand (4.0%) 2.7% (5.3%) and rebound of +2.0% in 2021
pressure Mexico: decline of 4.5% in 2020
2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 2019 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 and rebound of +3.5% in 2021
Source: HSBC Global Research
Notes: Data as of 2-Apr-20 (based on available info); indexed to 100
1. Y-o-y % growth
4 2020 GDP y-o-y% forecast5 Forecasted GDP growth prior to COVID-19 impact (Qn vs. Qn-1)
2. Average of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam 2021 GDP y-o-y% forecast5 Revised GDP growth rate post COVID-19 impact (Qn vs. Qn-1)
3. Average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico
4. Estimate pre (6.8%) actual Q1 disclosure 5. GDP growth y-o-y% forecasts are based on quarterly sums, e.g. Q1-Q4 2019 vs Q1-Q4 2020Unprecedented public stimulus packages to support businesses and the unemployed
will have a significant impact on the debt burden of nations
Government packages have been extensive1… Potential medium-term fiscal impacts
% GDP
Guarantees Fiscal stimulus (or total where breakdown unavailable)
25 Economic (stimulus and infrastructure investment)
20 and individuals’ (operating and wage subsidies)
15
support measures will increase debt levels
10
5 significantly, with certain countries (e.g. Japan, Italy,
0 the US, Spain) already having high public debt
Chile
Brazil
Taiwan
Germany
Australia
Sweden
Turkey
Italy
France
Spain
Argentina
UK
Malaysia
Singapore
Japan
US
Canada
Norway
Switzerland
Poland
Hong Kong
Colombia
India
Mexico
Thailand
Indonesia
China
Russia
Philippines
New Zealand
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
South Korea
Debt burden may increase further post COVID-19
economic and tax measures in some countries as
stimulus packages may be rolled out to counter the
… in order to support unemployed… recession (vs. austerity in other countries)
Unemployment expected levels
20.5% Lower unemployment spike due to Lower unemployment spike due to Increased debt burden may result in higher taxation
furlough/part-time work scheme part-time work scheme for corporates and individuals in the future to
10.5%
4.0% 6.5% 4.5% 6.2% 6.5% 6.4% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% support deleveraging
Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Post COVID-19 increased spending in healthcare
… but will put pressure on sovereign debt levels and essential infrastructure (e.g. transport) may
% GDP create co-investment opportunities. Although higher
Pre-COVID-19 national debt as % of GDP
250 debt burden may restrict some nations in
200
150 increasing investments significantly
100
50
0 Risk of increased borrowing costs for governments
Chile
Taiwan
Turkey
Sweden
Australia
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
Malaysia
France
India
Spain
Singapore
Italy
Russia
UK
Canada
US
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Norway
Switzerland
Philippines
Poland
Colombia
Mexico
Thailand
China
South Africa
Japan
New Zealand
South Korea
as debt burdens rise and post COVID-19 investors may
look to rebalance their portfolios towards equities again
in search of yield?
Sources: BIS, HSBC Global Research, IMF, National governments, OECD
Note: Data as of 2-Apr-20
5
1. Based on available information. Some breakdowns are unavailableSignificant change in consumption behaviour due to the COVID-19 pandemic…
Roughly half of spending could be adversely affected…
How affected? Change in spend1
(US consumer spending by category)
Recreation & Culture High (80%)
Recreation & Culture (9%) High risk (16%) Restaurant & Hotels High (90%)
Restaurants & Hotels (7%) Transport Medium – High (60%)
Transport (10%) Low risk
(49%) Clothing & Footwear Medium – High (50%)
Clothing & Footwear (3%)
Household & Furnishings Medium – High (50%)
Household & Furnishings (4%)
Medium-high
Alcohol & Tobacco (2%) Alcohol & Tobacco Medium – Low (5%)
risk (13%)
Communications (2%) Communications Medium – Low (5%)
Misc (14%)
Misc Medium – Low (10%)
Education (2%)
Education Low 0%
Health (22%)
Housing & Utilities (19%) Health Low 10%
Food & Drink (6%) Medium risk (22%) Housing & Utilities Low 15%
Food & Drink Low 50%
… with certain sectors being impacted significantly from the shutdowns
High: >75% closed Medium-high: >50% closed Medium-low:… whilst the medical response to COVID-19 will be a key critical driver to restoring
consumer confidence and the “re-opening” sectors…
Government Consumer
Care type Considerations Select “open” sectors
response confidence
Low consumer confidence given the economic shock
Lockdown and expected growth prospects Energy
measures
Potential loss in household income as a result of the FMCG / F&B
Reactive care economic and health policy responses to the crisis
Travel bans
(anti- Increase of savings amid future uncertainty and fears
Residential rents
inflammatories) of unemployment and labour market shrinkage
Closure of Telecom
public Focus on non-adjustable household spending
spaces Utilities
Deferral of most non-essential spending
Cinemas
Continuous Better consumer confidence if clinical trials lead to an
social effective treatment Entertainment
distancing Improvement of household spend dedicated to goods
Treatment care
and adoption and services previously prohibited or discouraged due Pubs
(antivirals) of PPE to social distancing
across the Deferral of significant spending given continuous Restaurants
population vulnerability of the economy
Unis & education campuses
Restoration of consumer confidence and optimism Automotive
across the population
Decrease of saving rates as employment and market Corporate RE (in dense CBDs)1
conditions are recovering and re-injection of cash in the
Preventive Progressive Hotels
economy
care return to
Recovery of spending index, incl. significant
(vaccines) “normalcy” Luxury goods
expenditures in leisure and other recreational activities
Central business districts may be impacted by Real estate
longer term social distancing measures and working
from home Travel
Note:
1. Corporate real estate in dense central business districts
7… with the hardest hit sectors potentially not seeing a restart until 2021 and taking
significant time to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic…
Preliminary views on some of the hardest hit sectors based on partially effective scenario1
Commercial Insurance Apparel / Fashion
Air & Travel Oil & Gas Automotive Education
Aerospace Carriers / Luxury
Estimated time
to recover Longest Shortest
Estimated Late Q2 / Q3 Late Q2 / Q3
Q3 / Q4 2021 Q1 / Q2 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020
global restart 2020 2020
Preexisting industry Deep, immediate US insurers have been Oil price massive Existing vulnerabilities Physical closure of Overall decline in
Industry specific challenges, a quick drop demand shock 5–6x strongly affected, decline driven by i) the (e.g. trade tensions, campuses and schools private consumption and
examples in possible revenue, and greater than 11-Sep; especially reinsurers and Russia-Saudi Arabia declining sales) are impacting the exports of services
high fixed costs cause c.70–80% near term life and health insurers price war, ii) the sharp amplified by acute education industry…
near term cash flow demand erosion due decrease in global decline in Chinese Demand for apparel
and long term growth to international travel Reduced interest rates demand and demand, continued … with a number of categories down
uncertainty bans and quarantines and investment consumption, itself supply chain and students requesting sharply
now prevalent in 130+ performance impacting related to air travel and production disruption (in reductions or refunds on overall and expected to
fees…
It may take years to nations returns—especially for other transport China, rest of Asia, EU) take longer to return
recover from production longer-tail lines restrictions, fall in to amplify impact despite … prolonged social than economic restart;
and supply chain Northern hemisphere industrial production, and ongoing Chinese distancing may slow online growth exists
stoppages, due to critical summer travel peak Disruptions expected drop in energy production economic down a return to (though hampered by
vendors located in areas season deeply impacted in new business and needs, and iii) crude oil Restart “normal”… labour shortage)
impacted by the virus since pandemic fears underwriting glut given rapid filling up
coincide with peak processes due to of storage capacity (oil Headwinds to persist … and in the mid-term the Retail stores
Long order backlogs booking period dependence on futures prices go into Q3 given tight recession may impact temporarily closed in
mitigate some concerns, paper applications and negative in 20-Apr) inventories (… whilst other sectors have seen very limited impact from the current pandemic and
remain resilient
Preliminary views on some of the hardest hit sectors based on partially effective scenario1
Consumer staples and
Technology Healthcare Telecoms Utilities / Renewables
food delivery
Estimated level of
negative impact Very limited / positive Limited
Industry specific Strong short-term increase in The effects of COVID-19 are Pharma diversified supply Given the quick spread of Utilities might encounter
demand for food staples and having a significant impact on chains and typically hold COVID-19 and an increase in shortages due to constrained
examples grocery shopping… the technology sector, significant inventory while countries imposing restrictions production of supplies
affecting raw materials governments tend to ensure on movement, our daily lives produced in countries highly
… with food delivery seeing a affected by COVID-19
strong increase on the back of supply, disrupting the ease of passage even in crisis have required more time at
safety concerns and electronics value chain, and scenarios such as COVID-19 home and more usage of data
lockdown measures causing an inflationary risk for work and leisure Developers of renewable
on products Manufacturing plants energy projects could
Positive long-term outlook for potentially experience
classified as Essential by Telecommunication companies difficulties in getting critical
food delivery and online food More positively, the disruption governments are focusing on increasing
retail remains strong as safety components from suppliers in
concerns may continue to has caused an acceleration of network resiliency and affected countries, especially
persist post COVID-19 remote working, and a rapid Significant demand increase reliability for the consumer those in Asia
pandemic, with supermarkets focus on evaluating and de- to cope with current COVID- while also looking at how
and other retailers increasing risking the end-to-end value 19 pandemic for hospitals, COVID-19 may impact their Expect some utilities to
their online presence and chain medical equipment and lab planned investments, experience load reductions
ramping up delivery services particularly in 5G due to dampened demand
platforms… Key subsectors that may from the commercial and
benefit: software and network Governments are likely to industrial sectors. They also
… economics of delivery equipment prioritise telecoms (e.g. towers, may find that some customers
platforms key question for are struggling to pay their bills
long term profitability and fibre, 5G, etc.) given the
change of consumer increasing critical nature of
behaviour as consumers look the sector, as it is becoming a Decline in energy prices due to
for value-based shopping ‘utility-like’ infrastructure amid demand and oil prices
the current crisis
Company specific
examples “Orders up 50% in Q1”
“Networks are demonstrating resilience,
“Cisco sees demand surge for facing moderate volume timing effects
Webex” and delays in selected maintenance
“Vodafone can play a critical role investments. Thermal and Nuclear
“Experiencing unprecedented “Increasing the production of in supporting society during this operations are modestly impacted by
unprecedented time and that is price movements on unhedged merchant
levels of demand, ten times certain critical care products and power sales. Renewables operations are
higher than normal” why we are announcing our five- also impacted by such merchant price
solutions to help diagnose and point plan, A plan that ensures movements as well as selected instances
treat patients with the new better outcomes for all citizens of operational, supply chain and finance
“Recruit 20,000 coronavirus disease” partnering constraints on capacity builds
by working more closely with and sell-downs. Supply is impacted by
temporary “All other components of our Q3 governments” lower volumes and a potential increase in
colleagues” guidance remain unchanged”2 bad debts”
Sources: Company information, Deloitte Insights, PwC
Notes:
9
1. Subject to change depending on the evolution of the situation
2. Except for the Windows OEM and Surface divisionOverview of mid- to long-term socio-economic implications
Supply chain and
7 New social contract? 1
flows of trade
Increased awareness and New imperative for resilient
demand for more managed and diversified supply chains
globalisation and inclusion of and trade relationships
social responsibility Diversification of the supply
New global social contract chain, potential re-
with more inclusion and a localisation and leveraging
focus on tackling inequalities digital supply networks to
maximise supply chain
6 Managed globalisation: geo-political impacts resilience
Geo-political implications on global governance and
globalisation will depend on medical response and
resulting recession and shape and speed of economic 2 Digital transformation and ‘servicisation’ trend
recovery Acceleration of digital transformation, contact-free, and “as a
Potential re-consideration of extensive international service” trends
integration of trade and people flows towards a managed @ Remote working, distance learning, online media content,
globalisation, more diversification and re-localisation of telemedicine and ecommerce are among the key winners’
strategic activities with enduring influence of state industries post COVID-19
intervention
New spatial patterns: shared spaces,
5 3 Health and wellness
services, and systems
Re-prioritisation of health, wellness and balanced
Geo-spatial: changed behaviour impacts Climate change and
4 lifestyle
on public transport, mass-gathering sustainable economy
Increasing awareness and demand for healthy life
activities, contact-free economy and global
Better awareness of climate and good nutrition as well as health safety and
urbanisation trends
change challenges and the need access to quality medical care
New social attitudes of physical distancing
for a more sustainable economy
and facemask wearing are bringing a new
and infrastructure
shared spaces management doctrine
The COVID-19 crisis is
accelerating the change in
consumption behaviour and
broadening the public support for
a cleaner economy and for
environmental responsibility
101 New supply chain paradigm, moving from a just-in-time model to a just-in-case near-
shoring approach
Mitigating the crisis impact requires short-term actions on … while considering mid-term solutions to build resilience
the full value chain… and diversification against potential future market disruptions
Procurement and sourcing
Diversification and geographical complexity
(suppliers)
Ensure a precise mapping of components (origin, price, region,
Diversification of supply chain beyond the dual sourcing model
quality, type)
Potential for re-localisation of strategic suppliers for key products in
Assess risk of interruption for the activity (e.g. critical components
the supply chain closer to demand locations (e.g. Hitachi expecting
shortage, after-sales stock, customs)
“serious problems” in its supply chain for rail cars in specific areas)
Identify tier-2 alternative suppliers
Assembly and manufacturing @
Leverage technology
(production plants)
Assess shock impact on operations, finance and production capacity Improve visibility across end-to-end supply chain through digital
Conduct stress tests and scenario planning (e.g. joint sourcing, supply networks
change of transport mode) Leverage advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things,
Identify key workers and activate business continuity plan (e.g. artificial intelligence, big data, and 5G solutions
Roche) Use robotisation and automation technologies
Distribution
Embedding resilience in the supply chain
(logistic platforms and dispatching centres)
Gather real-time inventory information
Materials or components substitutability (alternative spare parts,
Ensure safety for exposed workforce such as delivery, retail, and
use of after-sales stock, other geographical markets, etc.)
after-sales (e.g. Nestle put in place additional measures for its
Embedding future resilience though redundancy (increased stocks
personnel safety to avoid any cross-contamination)
and supply competition), resistance (automation) and reliability (e.g.
Optimise distribution policy (e.g. lean strategy, resilience of physical
payment terms reducing supplier’s cash-flow exposure)
flow, alternative distributors)
Sources: Arcadis, Harvard Business Review, McKinsey, Press articles
112 Acceleration of digital transformation, contact-free, and “as a service” trends creating
new opportunities towards online channels and service-focused business models
Tech – Education – Media – Consumer & Retail Healthcare – Telecom – Real Estate –
Remote working Distance learning Online content – Ecommerce Telemedecine Data surge “Servicisation”
Expensive rents for Existing Development of Expensive rents in Convenient Underlying driver Favourable trend towards
companies commitments regional and offline high street solution for senior for the operating and industrial
Enlarge job search (e.g. work or specialised Unlimited stocks population with development of a real estate
radius for employees family) not platforms and opening hours mobility issues number of sectors More supply chain,
Development of high allowing for Large Development of Cheaper solution Ongoing logistics and distribution
speed internet and physical investments in supply chain, fast vs offline medical intensification of platforms
video conferencing attendance content and delivery and easy examination 4G and roll-out of Collection hubs in the city
tools Employer production processes for Convenient 5G centres (management of
Drivers Development of high incentives capabilities returns service to avoid Development of the last mile)
capacity servers and Lower tuition fees Low cost solution Change of long line-ups data-consuming More medical-related
secured remote access for customers shopping before an applications and infrastructure (hospitals,
Demand for better work behaviour and appointment content (IoT, nursing homes, care
/ life balance massive adoption remote working centres)
Savings in commuting of digital channels and learning, Essential infrastructure
time and costs, Robotisation / OTT1, future cities, (e.g. transport) mainly in
childcare costs, catering automation of social media, etc.) emerging countries)
costs logistics hubs
Inability to unplug from Reputation of Very fragmented A number of Convenient only Expensive long- Challenging market
work online content offer consumer goods for community / term infrastructure conditions for residential
Loneliness and isolation diplomas/degrees given still require an ambulatory investments real estate (consumers
Need for high self- Challenging multiplication of offline real medicine Risk of internet deferring large spending,
discipline nature of grading platforms customer Not adapted for bottlenecks during potential increase in
Less collaborative and evaluation Business model experience specific medical surges of usage mortgage rates)
environment Absence of yet to be Preference of needs Broadband power Challenging environment
Challenges Internet access regional fellowship spirit validated (most offline shops for and speed for corporate real estate
disparities platforms are still senior population disparities across (remote working) and
loss making) regions commercial properties
(ecommerce)
Unfavourable trend for
student housing (less
international students
with travel restrictions)
Note:
1. OTT refers to over-the-top on-demand video streaming services
123 Re-prioritisation of health, wellness and balanced lifestyle
Past reduction in healthcare public Increasing awareness for healthy Push for higher government spending in
spending lifestyle health
Past budget cuts scaled down healthcare Higher demand for better wellness and More public health-related expenditure is
systems1 and participated therefore in the nutrition alongside changing habits towards inevitable, incl. better basic insurance
scarcity of resources in hospitals healthy living (incl. food, sport and gym, coverage, medical infrastructure, and
Key cost-containment measures include work/life balance, mental health, etc.) hospital capacity ramp-up
significant reductions in the number of curative
Adoption of healthy food More resources for scientific research
beds and ICUs, one of the most needed elements
in the context of the current crisis Adoption of more organic and healthier diet Governments would be more likely to
from more sustainable sources (ethical and incentivise medical research (lab funding,
Privatisation of healthcare green purchasing, small and local producers, drug and vaccines discovery, etc.) and create
Introduction of market-like competitive short circuits, fair trade, etc.) dedicated schemes to attract and retain talents
instruments in the provision of medical care
incl. privatisation of beds, change of hospital Ensure national health safety
Ongoing change of behaviour
ownership model, and creation of private-for- Consider the re-localisation of strategic medical
and re-prioritisation of health
profit structures activities to ensure health safety and better
preparedness in the case of a health crisis
Past Present Future
Erosion on public health system Fast development or remote healthcare
solidarity and health
Creation of two-tiered health system, Increasing use of telemedicine and adoption
dependent for one’s capacity to afford quality of digital and remote healthcare
private medical care in a context of increase technologies incl. tele-health, tracking
of social inequalities devices, monitoring apps, connected and
wearable consumer healthcare devices, etc.
Limited universal access to care
Limited or absence of universal access to Increasing development of health insurance
care in a number of developed and emerging Limited universal access to care is increasingly
countries (e.g. the US) pushing households of some countries to resort
increasingly to healthcare insurance (e.g. US)
Source: WHO
Note:
13
1. Many countries responded to fiscal pressure by controlling public spending on health, reducing or freezing budgets dedicated to health insurance and cutting budgets of ministry of health (e.g. Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Portugal,
Spain)4 Better awareness of climate change challenges and the need for a more sustainable
economy and infrastructure
The current pandemic is accelerating the ongoing shift towards
… and push governments and corporates to re-think global
more sustainable infrastructure and better awareness of climate
food industry
change with an environmental footprint on ecosystems…
Governments (e.g. EU in its “Marshall Green deal”) are prioritising Changed market demand and significant excess stocks (e.g. daily
sustainable infrastructure investments for the use of public surplus of 14m of litres of milk in the US and 0.7m litre in the UK due to
stimulus packages (e.g. clean energy and new transport systems, coffee shops shutdown)
more sustainable homes and buildings, improved agricultural practices
water and waste management) Agriculture staffing shortage as lockdown measures are disrupting
usual flows of farmers (e.g. Germany made an exception for Polish and
COVID-19 pandemic is a harbinger of incoming climate disasters and Romanian workers to fly in and help with Spring harvest)
the resilience required into our systems to deal with the adverse impacts
of climate change Changing food shopping habits towards more organic and healthier
food (e.g. orange commodity futures spiked on global markets by more
Oil price turmoil1 may be seen as a historic opportunity for cleaner energy than 20%+)
Since the Paris agreement, the economic activity is directly linked to Trends towards a more managed globalisation and local-centric
climate change and carbon emissions consumption behaviour
Increasing corporate awareness and investor demand for a more Pressure on China to re-consider trade in wildlife and reduce the
responsible and cleaner economy (e.g. the USD7tr BlackRock and number of live animals in food markets
USD3tn State Street both announced in Jan-20 putting climate change at
the centre of the investment strategies for their passive funds) Relocalisation of some production chains to be closer to end markets,
allowing to react more quickly
Increasing pressures on governments for de-carbonising low-emission
tech roadmaps, by investing in green energy, power efficiency and
optimised storage
Note: 14
1. Oil price fall driven by i) the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war, ii) the sharp decrease in global demand and consumption, itself related to air travel and other transport restrictions, fall in industrial production, and drop in energy production, and iii)
crude oil glut given rapid filling up of storage capacity (oil futures prices go negative in 20-Apr). Oversupply expected to remain in the market even after demand recovery, and post 2020, despite OPEC+ decision to cut production5 New Spatial patterns: changed behaviour impacts on public transport, mass-gathering
activities, low-touch economy and global urbanisation trends
1 Medical response to the The medical response to the crisis will be key in determining the depth and the long term nature of the
crisis and resulting
ongoing changes in lifestyle and customer behaviour in shared spaces. Shared spaces and services
citizen behaviour in
shared spaces would need to become ‘health risk assured’ through either vaccine or health status security
2
Adoption of new social New social behaviour is emerging from the current crisis (e.g. social distancing, facemask wearing) and
attitudes in public areas having an impact on a number of sectors involving mass-gathering
3 Mass transit modes are face dilemma between social distancing government recommendations and
Challenges around ensuring continuity of a sustainable and vital service to global cities and regions
public transport Potential change of dynamics between modes: mass transport, personal shared transports (e.g.
ridesharing services such as Uber or Didi), and privately owned transports, with spatial consequences
4 Acceleration of the low- Whilst online shopping was already meaningfully taking market share from brick-and-mortar shops, a
touch economy in the number of new industries are revising their business models and going online and omni channel
light of social Expected spikes for telemedicine, remote working and learning, and automation, minimising human
distancing behaviour contact across value chain of a number of products and services
5 Future shape of successful cities depends upon health assurance of concentration and agglomeration. It may
City planning include more distributed urbanisation for city centre activities and digitised advanced urban services
challenges in urban
agglomerations Multi-million emerging mega-cities (e.g. Delhi, Manila, Sao Paulo, Mexico, Lagos) are facing critical
prevalence risk of infections and fatalities due to dense urban areas with limited services
6 South-Eastern Asian Mimetisation of Asian approach in pandemic containment and management of shared spaces and
countries experience in
systems (mass testing, lockdown and self-isolation, tracking of infected people and their contacts, travel
pandemic management
in shared spaces bans, cancellation of mass-gathering events, closure of public spaces, mobile tracing, etc.)
156 Geo-political implications on global governance towards a more managed globalisation
and new multilateral dynamics
Citizen confidence: medical response to the
Enduring influence of State intervention
crisis and resulting nature of the recovery
The medical response to the crisis will be key in determining the depth and State intervention across multiple sectors is unlikely to be reversed
the nature of the recession and the subsequent recovery across quickly after the crisis
economic operators Healthcare systems, transport networks and ICT infrastructure are likely
Level of population optimism towards the economy, labour market and to be far more robust in a post COVID-19 world
unemployment level, public investment in health safety and social COVID-19 may spell the end of small government and a return of social
protection, and future prospects would shape political discourse and democratic social policies and Keynesian economic policies, entailing
narrative around managed and more sustainable and responsible potential implications on public investments, income tax and corporate tax
globalisation systems
An era of national competition between the major
Potential new restrictions on flows of trade and people
powers
US-China competition will be supercharged but the extent will be Potential increasing restrictions on flows of trade including tariffs, customs
shaped by the outcome of the US election, itself related to the post crisis clearance procedures, and export restrictions on strategic products
evolution
Re-localisation of newly strategic activities (e.g. production of PPE1,
There will be a long geopolitical tail risk, where countries may remember critical medical appliances, pharma active ingredients, testing kits)
who aided / “abandoned” them during this period
Critical resources and supply chains required to maintain functioning
Potential for ongoing frictions between China and Western countries
economies will be more tightly contested among countries
The issue of rescuing some ailing Emerging Markets may arise and multiple
players might emerge (e.g. China, the US, EU) Restrictive measures on flows of people including travel bans and additional
visa requirements
Much of this disruption may be temporary but the crisis is likely to have a lasting impact on political governance, global dynamics around
relationships between developed and emerging countries, and new forms of globalisation and flows of trade and people
Note:
1.
16
PPE refers to personal protective equipment including face masks, medical professional masks, medical gloves and coats, protective glasses, sanitisers, etc.7 A New Social Contract? Increased awareness and demand for a more managed
globalisation and inclusion of social responsibility
1
Massive adoption of remote working and video conferencing increases awareness around responsible
Increase of social travelling behaviour (e.g. in corporates) and avoiding non-essential high ecological footprint
responsibility among
population Lockdown and restrictive anti-stockpiling measures in supermarkets push customers to be more considerate
paving the way to a more local and sustainable economy and lower waste attitudes
2 Awareness of Low-income frontline employees of the service economy are the most vulnerable workers during the current
magnified crisis
inequalities across
the population Modest households are suffering from low social protection / safety nets
3 Appetite for more The increasing pace of trade flows highlights extensive interdependencies between the countries, whetting the
socialised appetite for more responsible and controlled globalisation
globalisation in
investment decisions Increasing consideration of social responsibility in investment decisions of large institutional investors
4 Universal access to
care to become a
non-negotiable Increased taxation on high income taxpayers and large corporations to finance a more protective public
social right for healthcare system for all
governments and
companies
5
Intensification of the
EU and a number of governments are setting up a set of measures to counter the tax dumping from low-
battle against tax
income non-cooperative offshore jurisdictions
havens
17COVID-19: Cities and New Urbanisation Trends?
COVID-19 has emerged just as we enter the 5th decade of the century of Top 30 global cities by death rate per 100,000 population1
cities. We are on the way from 40% urbanisation in 1980 to 80% urbanisation
in 2080 Milan 141.0
Madrid 125.7
COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, the largest city in Central China
New York 97.2
Cities have been at the epicentre of the contagion due to the high levels of
Barcelona 69.0
proximity and interaction, their greater exposure to international travellers and
Stockholm 62.8
their connections with other cities with high infection
Boston 62.1
Concentration effects in many cities tend to congregate people with similar London 58.2
socio-economic profiles, accelerating infection rates Paris 50.1
Although all countries have different patterns, infection is more highly Chicago 25.3
concentrated in cities than in other locations Amsterdam 24.9
Cities have been the focus of lockdown measures. For many cities the Copenhagen 15.6
lockdown has been associated with the rise in digital transformation, home Munich 14.7
deliveries and ‘as a service’ business models, remote working, home Los Angeles 9.9
schooling as well as a ‘low-touch’ economy Toronto 8.3
It has also seen a reduction in pollution and the return of cleaner air and Zurich 6.5
more visible wild life. This has raised many questions about the future of Moscow 6.1
urban services, the built environment and gathering places. Frankfurt 5.9
We are already in a major cycle of urban-tech and smart system Vienna 5.0
development for cities with the use of IoT, AI, robotics, supporting cleaner Berlin 4.0
urban growth San Francisco 3.9
New Zero Carbon strategies for cities have been emerging that emphasises Washington DC 3.9
the role of the built environment and mobility, along with energy, industry, food Sydney 0.5
and consumption Tokyo 0.4
New behaviours and changes in work and learning patterns adopted during Melbourne 0.3
lockdown may carry over into the recovery phase and next cycle, Singapore 0.3
changing the way that our cities work and the services, amenities, buildings Hong Kong 0.1
and systems they need. The exact new patterns will vary with the speed and Beijing 0.0
effectiveness of medical systems coupled with the willingness and appetite of Shanghai 0.0
citizens and governments to return to previous patterns or embrace change Seoul 0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Note:
1. As of 3-May-20
18To be updated
Government lockdown restrictions on human movements may impact flows of people
post crisis
Traffic is less than 20% of usual levels across major cities… Potential impacts on long term human
(Citymapper Mobility Index1 - % of city moving vs. normal) movements post COVID-19
Singapore
Seoul
Hong Kong Reduced international business travel with
Stockholm
Toronto
video conferencing technology replacing
Moscow selected face-to-face meetings
Mexico City
Sydney
Sao Paulo
Berlin
London
International leisure travel impacted due to
Tokyo
Istanbul safety concerns
New York
Paris
Rome
Latest 31-Mar Week ending 15-Mar
Madrid
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Impact on migration of international
… and international travel has been significantly reduced on y-o-y basis employees and students
(# of flights)
35,000 +29%
30,000
25,000 Increased awareness for responsible travel
and implied ecological footprint
20,000
15,000
10,000
(80%)
5,000
0 Major Issues for Cities
01-Apr
02-Apr
03-Apr
04-Apr
05-Apr
06-Apr
07-Apr
08-Apr
07-Mar
08-Mar
09-Mar
10-Mar
11-Mar
12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar
19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar
22-Mar
23-Mar
24-Mar
25-Mar
26-Mar
27-Mar
28-Mar
29-Mar
30-Mar
31-Mar
2019 2020
Sources: Citymapper, Eurocontrol
Note:
19
1. Calculated by comparing trips planned in the Citymapper app to a recent typical usage period20
Geo-spatial: range of potential urbanisation impacts for global cities eco-system post
COVID-19
Reform
Golden age of Families and immuno- Agglomeration Metropolitan cores are
NIMBYism? compromised play it safe economies will where we’ll let off steam -
and move out still rule! the roaring 2020s!
Hyper-divided cities: the Big city anchors
poor are squeezed for will step up
local retail, green space,
education Land use and zoning de-
regulation at the fringes
Pioneer inner cities will
move ahead with green A cycle of accelerated
zoning, procurement – peer-to-peer city
suburbs resist solutions & replication
Drip drip de-urbanisation:
remote work now works
Negative for cities New institutions to Positive for cities
serve urban
disadvantage
Revolution in
urban public
health
Time to build,
build, build!
Anti-public transport
decade
Let’s re-plan our cities:
Copenhagen for all!
Global (eco-
systems) thinking Bring on the
green/health new
deal!
Transform
Source: HSBC analysis
21The Unbundled City v The Centripetal City
The unbundled city V The centripetal city
De-centralisation from the big city due to Momentum continues towards re-
diseconomies, attitudes, technologies, urbanisation and densification, just
public policies and demographics marginally interrupted
Acceleration of internet, AI, VR and COVID-19 sorts for value-creating industries
autonomous transport allow clusters to that are even more dependent on face-to-
disperse beyond big cities efficiently face, trust and co-ordination
City-regions, especially large expensive The scale and pulling power and city-
ones, lose their competitive edge. Second regions, and costs of de-concentration, sees
cities and rural areas prosper demand for prime metropolitan locations
intensify further
Flat Earth
The Single-Centre Metropolis
22Potential new urban equilibrium towards the blended city pattern
The unbundled city The blended city? The centripetal city
De-centralisation from the big city due to Distributed urbanisation – benefits of Momentum continues towards re-
diseconomies, attitudes, technologies, proximity combine with larger effective scale urbanisation and densification, just
public policies and demographics marginally interrupted
Specialisations continue to concentrate
Acceleration of internet, AI, VR and while working patterns become flexible COVID-19 sorts for value-creating industries
autonomous transport allow clusters to that are even more dependent on face-to-
disperse beyond big cities efficiently face, trust and co-ordination
The competitive city-region has very strong
physical and spatial platform to drive
City-regions, especially large expensive agglomeration plus discretion to gather The scale and pulling power and city-
ones, lose their competitive edge. Second virtually and flexibly regions, and costs of de-concentration, sees
cities and rural areas prosper demand for prime metropolitan locations
intensify further
Rise of the networked-region, with strong
Flat Earth localisation effects in specific industries
The Single-Centre Metropolis
23The Blended City?
The Physical City The Virtual City
The Blended City
24Distributed urbanisation?
Densifying Cities Single City with New New Districts New Cities
Central Hubs
CBD
Established
New City
CBD
CBD
CBD
2nd CBD
Hub
Metropolitan Areas Expanding Metropolitan City Clusters/Mega Regions Corridors
Regions
CBD
3rd
Hub
CBD
CBD
2nd
Hub
CBD
Cross Border Regions Macro Regions Reurbanisation of 3rd Renewed Hemispherical
and 4th tier cities City Networks
Jobs and capital rich [metros]
CBD
More affordable, higher
quality of [life mid & small]
Sources: HSBC analysis
25Appendix I
Global health crisis – Geographical disparities and potential
solutions
26Pandemic and global spread
A major pandemic affecting all the countries around the globe
The first case of someone suffering Europe and the US are the worst affected regions
from COVID-19 can be traced back (cases per 1m people)
to 17-Nov-19 in Wuhan in the
Chinese province of Hubei
4,024,737
Confirmed
First contained in China, the virus
has spread around the world, the
WHO declaring it a “pandemic” on
11-Mar-20
1,375,854 0-49
50-199
Recovered
200-499
500-999
Thanks to lockdown and mass
testing and tracing measures, Asian 279,313 1,000+
countries contained the virus Fatalities
spread; Europe and the US have
become the focal points of COVID-
19 since March 6.9%
Mortality rate
As of beginning of May, the daily
Location Confirmed Recovered Fatalities Location Confirmed Recovered Fatalities Location Confirmed Recovered Fatalities
death tolls in the majority of
Western countries are in the low US 1,343,937 201,293 79,696 Brazil 156,061 61,685 10,656 India 62,939 19,358 2,109
hundreds, and in all but a few cases
EU (27) 1,016,285 524,205 115,039 France 138,854 56,038 26,310 Belgium 52,596 13,411 8,581
those numbers are decreasing
Spain 223,578 133,952 26,478 Turkey 137,115 89,480 3,739 Netherlands 42,382 — 5,422
Governments have shut down Italy 218,268 103,031 30,395 Iran 106,220 86,064 6,589 KSA 37,136 10,144 239
entire economic sectors in an
UK 215,260 — 31,587 China 82,901 78,120 4,633 Mexico 33,460 17,781 3,353
attempt to curb the spread of the
virus, which has lead to one of the Russia 198,676 31,916 1,827 Canada 67,702 31,249 4,693 Switzerland 30,231 26,400 1,532
most important socio-economic
Germany 171,324 138,330 7,549 Peru 65,015 20,246 1,814 Pakistan 29,465 8,023 639
shocks of the century
Some countries incl. Spain, Italy, Germany and China have started to de-confine and reopened gradually their economies
As of 10-May-20, c.4.0m cases have been confirmed and more than 279k fatalities globally reported with the US, the
UK and Italy being the most severely affected
Sources: Johns Hopkins University – CSSE, Press articles, WHO, Worldometers
Notes: Data as of 10-May-20; Fatality rates may be under- or over-estimated depending on countries’ capacity of mass
27
testingDifferent containment approaches across the world
Government measures during the lockdown
Shared spaces measures Personal health measures
Lockdown Travel bans/ Remote Cancellation of Mass Ramp-up of Availability of Mobile contact-
measures5 restrictions working/learning public events testing medical care2 PPE tracing3
China Strict quarantine mainly in Wuhan and 80+ cities in Hubei and other provinces
Closure of schools and unis; as of 16-Mar, several cities have restarted school
Cancellation of public events, the extent of stringency varies by city
Italy1 Enforceable full lockdown as of 9-Mar, relaxed as of 4-May
Strict travel restrictions nation-wide, relaxed as of 2-May
Closure of schools and universities from 4-Mar
France1 Enforceable full lockdown as of 17-Mar, relaxed as of 11-May
Travels inside and outside the country have been severely limited
Public meetings have been banned, most of the major public events cancelled
or postponed. Schools and unis closed. Unis to re-open post summer
Germany1 No national lockdown; state lockdown in Bavaria, Saarland and Saxony
Ban of public gatherings of more than two people, except for families and
those who live together
Reintroduction of customs’ controls at the Schengen borders4
S. Korea No strict lockdown; incentives to social distancing; smartphone tracking
Isolation policy to almost all entrants; no travel ban for nationals
Deferral of the Spring period in schools and unis
Spain1 Enforceable full lockdown as of 15-Mar, relaxed as of 2-May
Land borders are closed except for Spanish citizens, residents and land
transportation of goods
Public meetings banned, most of major public events cancelled or postponed
UK Lockdown as of 23-Mar but non enforceable by law
Borders remain open. Travel warning for British tourists abroad
Public meetings banned, most of major public events cancelled or postponed
USA Stay at home orders in 42 states. No national lockdown at US level
Americans are advised not to travel, travel ban for European citizens
Closure of schools in all states; limits on operation of bars/restaurants in
place in most states
Countries are taking different approaches to counter the pandemic, however most countries have gone into lockdown to a large extent
Sources: Governments’ official communication, OECD In development In debate
Notes: Data as of 10-May-20
1. Potential travel restrictions outside Schengen area until summer
2.
28
Ramp-up of medical care includes access to universal care, number of ICUs, number of ventilators and respirators, national vs regional healthcare management, air/train patient transfer between regions, temporary hospitals, healthcare crisis management, etc.
3. Data privacy to be ensured through: open-source algorithm code; data to be stored only on smartphones; anonymised; encrypted, downloadable if required only on health authorities’ servers, removed in mid-term (c. 6 months), etc.
4. France, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy, Spain and Austria
5. Incl. restrictive nature of lockdown, citizen acceptance, and enforceable nature of the measures (e.g. fines)Delayed spread in the Southern hemisphere
Introduction of social distancing and strict lockdown measures is being observed in spite of
limited COVID-19 cases as a proactive strategy to contain the spread
Confirmed Fatalities Mortality rate
354,579 19,566 5.5%
55,792 2,072 3.7%
62,939 2,109 3.4%
57,080 1,854 3.2%
6,846 93 1.4%
LatAm and Caribbean2 Africa India Southeast Asia3 Australia
Latin America and the Caribbean Most African countries imposed The government mandated a 21- Brunei banned nationals and The two largest states, New
suffer from a paucity of testing: social distancing and strict day lockdown until 17-May-20 foreigners from leaving the South Wales and Victoria, have
9 of the 20 countries conducting lockdown measures1 to prevent a burden on its fragile country introduced lockdown measures
the fewest tests per million in the Most countries have very fragile healthcare system Cambodian forbid travel across for all but essential services
world are in this region healthcare systems, e.g. South India has one of lowest testing provinces and districts All Australians must practice
Peru’s President Martin Vizcarra Africa has only c.1,000 ICUs in rates in the world, having local Indonesia closed its borders social distancing and stay
is trying to organise a public and private hospitals for a diagnostic companies gearing up and shut down schools and home unless going out for
c.USD15bn line of credit from population of c.57m people to scale up testing capacity workplaces in the capital essentials or exercise
the Inter-American Development A number of conditions, such as The country has extremely Thailand is under lockdown and All foreign takeover and
Bank to fight COVID-19 in malnutrition and difficult access limited capacity to face the face masks are mandatory investment proposals would be
coordination with Bolivia, Chile, to correct hygiene poses a epidemic peak due to its low Philippines mandated arrest for scrutinised by the foreign
Colombia, Ecuador and considerable risk of widespread number of ICU ventilators, lockdown violation investment review board
Paraguay infection totalling only c.20,000 machines
The spread in the Southern hemisphere, particularly vulnerable to the pandemic, could lead to a critical humanitarian crisis amid
poverty, high urban density, inexistent social safety nets, fragile healthcare systems, and food insecurity in a number of countries
Sources: Johns Hopkins University – CSSE, Press articles, WHO, Worldometers
29
Notes: Data as of 10-May-20; Fatality rates may be under- or over-estimated depending on countries’ capacity of mass testing
1. Incl. school closures, bans on social gatherings and travel restriction
2. Includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
3. Includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and VietnamYou can also read
