Company Results Dairy Farm International Dasin Retail Trust - StocksBNB
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
12 March 2018, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar
Company Results The Phillip 20
Dairy Farm International February Review
Dasin Retail Trust
ETF Model Portfolio
Company IPO February Update
Sasseur REIT
Ayondo Ltd Singapore Strategy Update
March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“PSR”) has no reason
to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation
are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSR has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or
Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSR shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made
available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSR be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or
consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the
possibility of such damages.
This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or
particular needs of any particular person.
You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment
objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
2
Dairy Farm International
Biting the bullet for better profitability
Soh Lin Sin
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
12 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
3
Dairy Farm Int’l (Buy, TP: $9.83, Last: $8.03)
Results at a glance
(USD mn) FY17 FY16 YoY (%) Comments
Supermkts & Hypermkts 6,018 6,217 -3.2% Cha l l engi ng envi ronment wi th i ncrea s ed competition i n SE As i a ma rkets
Conveni ence Stores 2,020 1,951 3.6% Better performa nce a cros s mos t ma rkets
Hea l th a nd Bea uty 2,597 2,436 6.6% Better performa nce a cros s mos t ma rkets
Home Furni s hi ngs 653 597 9.4% New 4th s tore i n Hong Kong a nd hi gher s a l es i n Ta i wa n a nd Indones i a
Revenue 11,289 11,201 0.8% As a bove
Gros s profi t 3,433 3,386 1.4% Gros s ma rgi n +0.2pp to 30.4% i n FY17
Core EBITDA 588 665 -11.6% Hi gher opera ting expens es i n Superma rkets & Hyperma rket a nd US$9mn
s tart-up cos ts from new IKEA s tore i n HK
Core EBIT 367 453 -18.8% -2.7% i f ex. US$72.8mn of bus i nes s cha nge cos ts
Sha re of Res ul ts of As s oc. 143 115 25.2% Maxim's: Sa l es +11%; Profi t +8%
& JVs Yonghui: Sa l es +17%; Profi t +45%
Assoc. & JVs contributed
PATMI 403 460 -12.5% +1.5% i f ex. US$64.5mn of bus i nes s cha nge cos ts 28.2% of FY17 EBIT (vs
DPS (cents ) 21.0 21.0 FY16’s 20.5%)
Source: Company, PSR
Positive performances in most of the segments; Strong results from its key associates
Op. profit from Convenience Stores (+15.5%) and Health & Beauty (+19.6%); Margins improved
Persistent weakness in the SE Asia Supermkts & Hypermkts
Soft consumer sentiment, intensifying competition (pricing, e-commerce and smaller format stores)
Higher operating costs, gestation costs and business change costs hurt its core operating profit
2 huge one-offs in FY17: US$9mn pre-opening expenses from the new 4th store in Hong Kong (opened in Oct-17); and
US$72.8mn of business change costs
Positive outlook
Expect recovery in consumer sentiment as well as higher Chinese tourist arrivals to HK and Macau to gain momentum in 2018
A new Group Chief Executive, Ian McLeod, joined the Group in 18 Sep-17
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
4
Dairy Farm Int’l (Buy, TP: $9.83, Last: $8.03)
Well-established regional presence with long track record. Added a net 633 stores in 2017. At 31 Dec-17,
the Group had 7,181 stores in operation in 11 countries and territories, including its interest in 779 Yonghui
stores in China and 1,210 Maxim’s stores.
Strong cash generation and solid balance sheet to support its expansion plan. FY17 net cash flow from
operating activities of US$671mn (+23.7% YoY); Net gearing ratio improved to 0.34x as at end-FY17 from
0.41x a year ago.
Increases accessibility via online and offline. Partnering Meituan (China), Happy Fresh (Malaysia) and Go-
Jek (Indonesia) to enhance last-mile delivery capabilities.
Expanding store network. In particular, two new IKEA stores in Taiwan (scheduled to open one store each in
2019 and 2021), and a 2nd IKEA store in Indonesia (secured site and pending licensing approval)
Moving towards smaller store format. Smaller store typically has shorter breakeven period and higher
profitability per retail area.
Improve profitability via better sales mix and efficiency gains. (a) New distribution centres to drive
economies of scale and provide capacity for wider range of product offerings. (b) Push for higher margin
products – Fresh, Own Brand (i.e. private label), Upscale brand, and Ready-to-Eat food.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
5
Dasin Retail Trust
Tying up FY2017 on a steady footing
Phillip Research Team
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
12 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
6
Dasin Retail Trust
(BUY (Maintained), TP: S$0.98, Last: S$0.87)
Organic growth captured from positive rental reversions and step-up escalations
•Stripping out Shiqi Metro Mall, baseline revenue continues to expand, with a positive 12.7% rental reversion in FY2017
Improved occupancy from 99.2% to 100%
•Strong occupancy for all four malls, with an above 90% tenant retention rate.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
7
Dasin Retail Trust
(BUY (Maintained), TP: S$0.98, Last: S$0.87)
Revenue in FY17 was slightly lower than expected.
•Reversion rates of Ocean Metro and Dasin E-Colour were lower than our estimates. Dasin E-Colour’s revenue was compressed by
the negative reversions of the ongoing recalibration of certain stall formats (atrium, advertising). However, this measure is temporary
and is part of Dasin’s ongoing asset enhancement, which will drive efficiency and productivity.
Source: Company
Outlook: Inorganic growth will be through its ready pipeline of 19 properties. We expect continued organic growth as all malls are
reporting at 100% occupancy. Zhongshan’s economy continues to be robust, with GDP expanding 7.73% in 2017 and exports
rebounding sharply in 2017 with a YoY growth of 13.6%.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
8Company IPO: Sasseur REIT
Expected Listing 28 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
9Sasseur REIT(Offer price S$0.80, Expected Listing 28 March 2018)
Offering size/price: S$396mn (495mn Offer shares @ S$0.80)
Cornerstone Investors (c.46% of total offering size)
Market cap: S$944mn Adroit Ideology Ltd (JD.com)
Bangkok Life Assurance
Portfolio assets: 4 outlet malls in Tier 2 PRC Cities Chongqing/Bishan/Hefei/Kunming CKK Holdings (Charles & Keith)
Tenant exposure: Portfolio WALE (By NPI) 1.2y, diversified tenant base - top 10 tenants occupy Entrepolis Ltd (YCH Group)
Secoo Holding Ltd
13.4% of total rental income. Main brands offered by top 10 tenants include Adidas, Bally, Coach, Fila,
Sparkling Gateway Pte. Ltd (L Capital Asia 2 Pte Ltd)
Nike, Puma, Columbia TMB Asset Mgmt
Source: Compa ny, PSR
Distribution yield: 7.50% for FY18
Distribution: 100% of distributable income until FY19, at least 90% thereafter
Investment Merits:
Exposure to fast-growing retail outlet mall sector in PRC
First-mover advantage in the Tier 2 PRC cities that Initial portfolio properties are located in
Mkt Cap (SGD Latest Gearing Average cost
PSR CALL PSR TARGET PRICE Price (S$) Dvd Yld: D-1 P/B
Name mn) (%) of debt (%)
SASSEUR REIT1 944 0.80 7.50 30-35 1.00 5.30
CAPITALAND RETAIL CHINA TRUST NEUTRAL 1.66 1,542 1.59 6.36 28.40 0.99 2.49
BHG RETAIL REIT 401 0.80 7.20 32.20 0.93 3.70
DASIN RETAIL REIT 497 0.90 8.95 30.70 0.59 5.00
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
1
Indicative numbers from Preliminary Prospectus
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
10Sasseur REIT(Offer price S$0.80, Expected Listing 28 March 2018)
Property (% of NPI as at Sept 17) 2014 2015 2016 Sep-17
Chongqing (71%) 99.6% 99.9% 97.8% 96.0%
Bishan (9%) 74.3% 79.2% 81.4% 85.6%
Hefei (12%) 82.1% 93.3%
Kunming (8%) 82.0% 90.7%
Portfolio average 88.4% 90.7% 86.1% 91.8%
Source: IPO Pros pectus
Source: Company
Forecast Period 20181
Property Fixed Component (S$mn) EMA Resultant Rent (S$mn)
Chongqing outlets 29.8 44.6
Bishan Outlets 6.1 8.9
Hefei Outlets 18.4 27.1
Kunming Outlets 12.2 18.0 Includes variable component
Total 66.4 98.5 (% of sales)
2018 Minimum Rent (S$) 98.52 To be topped up to minimum rent if
2019 Minimum Rent 127.38
falls below minimum rent figure
2020 onwards 127.38
Source: IPO Prospectus, Conversion rate SGDCNY 4.8
1
1 March to 31 Dec 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
11Company IPO: Ayondo Ltd
Expected Listing 26 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
12Ayondo Ltd (Offer price range:S$0.25 – S$0.29, Listing 26 Mar 2018)
Ayondo is a global Europe based FinTech with bulk of revenue generated in Europe. The
group serves B2B & B2C with 3 pillars of revenue deriving from social trading, trading
and casual trading.
•Estimated Market Cap: S$133.3m – S$149m
•Revenue ~S$26m: Social trading, Trading & Casual trading
•Regulated & licensed by UK (FCA) & Germany (BaFin)
•Positives:
Scalable platform business
Ability to charge higher spread to clients
Enjoying 50% growth in number of active clients
•Negatives:
Liquidity & credit risks
Change in regulatory environment Source: Company
May require additional funding for growth
Loss making for the past 4 years
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities Research accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 13Ayondo Ltd (Offer price range:S$0.25 – S$0.29, Listing 26 Mar 2018)
•Bulk of revenue comes from
spread trading
•Large other operating costs from
IT and marketing expenditure
•No. of active clients continues to
grow at 54% YoY marketing
efforts will continue to entice more
clients to join
Source: IPO prospectus
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities Research accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 14The Phillip 20
February Review
Jeremy Ng
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
12 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
15Straits Times Index – Technical Analysis
STI Daily Chart
• Strong bullish rejection off the 3354 – 3341 support area kept the uptrend intact
-0.45% in Feb 2018
Source: Bloomberg, PSR Red line = 20 period moving average, Blue line = 60 period moving average, Green line = 200 period moving average
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
16Realised P&L for February 18
The Phillip 20 Portfolio - Realised P&L for February 2018
Company Name Ticker L Entry Date Entry price Exit date Exit Price P&L
SUNNINGDALE TECH BHQ Long 23-Jan-18 1.940 7-Feb-18 1.860 -4.12%
YZJ SHIPBLDG SGD BS6 Long 10-Jan-18 1.610 7-Feb-18 1.470 -8.70%
PANUNITED P52 Long 22-Aug-17 0.550 9-Feb-18 0.666* 21.15
YOMA STRATEGIC Z59 Long 1-Dec-17 0.505 9-Feb-18 0.470 -6.93%
CHINA AVIATION G92 Long 13-Dec-17 1.670 13-Feb-18 1.510 -9.58%
SPH T39 Long 25-Sep-17 2.750 13-Feb-18 2.530 -8.00%
GOLDEN AGRI-RES E5H Long 26-Oct-17 0.400 13-Feb-18 0.350 -12.50%
THAIBEV Y92 Long 14-Mar-17 0.955 23-Feb-18 0.825 -13.61%
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
*PanUnited last price includes the Xinghua Port Share at HKD1.46.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
17New Entries for February 18
The Phillip 20 Portfolio – February new entries as of 9 March 2018
Company Name Ticker L Entry Date Entry price Stop Loss Last price Current gain/loss (%)
OCBC O39 Long 9-Feb-18 12.360 11.430 13.250 7.20%
800 SUPER 5TG Long 13-Feb-18 1.110 0.990 1.110 0.00%
SUNRIGHT S71 Long 20-Feb-18 0.905 0.755 0.980 8.29%
MICRO-MECHANICS 5DD Long 21-Feb-18 2.220 1.890 2.130 -4.05%
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
18Monthly performance
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
19Total return since May, as of 28 February 2018
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
20Watchlist
China Sunsine Mermaid Maritime
Sunningdale Tech Hi-P
Jiutian Chemical Memtech Intl
POSH AEM
Olam Intl Haw Par
Hotung Inv Shangri-La HKD
SingPost SBS Transit
Geo Energy Res Wheelock Prop
Valuetronics Venture
Asian Pay TV DBS
UOL UnUsUal
Avi-Tech Sunright
KimHeng Offshore Oxley
UOI Nordic
Yongnam Centurion
Allied Tech SATS
CityDev Keong Hong
InnoTek Clearbridge
UOB UMS
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
21Current Portfolio
The Phillip 20 Portfolio - Our top technical picks as of 28 February 2018
Company Name Ticker L Entry Date Entry price Stop Loss Last price Current gain/loss (%)
800 SUPER 5TG Long 13-Feb-18 1.110 0.990 1.090 -1.80%
BREADTALK 5DA Long 2-Nov-17 1.645 1.470 1.790 8.81%
CHIP ENG SENG C29 Long 12-Dec-17 0.945 0.880 0.945 0.00%
ELLIPSIZ BIX Long 3-Aug-17 0.645 0.575 0.670 3.88%
FRENCKEN E28 Long 20-Jul-17 0.525 0.445 0.625 19.05%
F&N F99 Long 24-Mar-17 2.220 2.220 2.360 6.31%
GOLDEN ENERGY AUE Long 2-Aug-17 0.425 0.360 0.410 -3.53%
JUMBO 42R Long 22-Sep-17 0.575 0.525 0.570 -0.87%
MICRO-MECHANICS 5DD Long 21-Feb-18 2.220 1.890 2.160 -2.70%
MIYOSHI M03 Long 23-Aug-17 0.074 0.062 0.072 -2.70%
OCBC O39 Long 9-Feb-18 12.360 11.430 13.060 5.66%
RIVERSTONE AP4 Long 12-Jul-17 1.065 0.995 1.040 -2.35%
SUNRIGHT S71 Long 20-Feb-18 0.905 0.755 0.875 -3.31%
SINOSTAR PEC C9Q Long 28-Nov-17 0.194 0.149 0.181 -6.70%
WING TAI W05 Long 11-Dec-17 2.270 2.060 2.200 -3.08%
Monthly Phillip 20 performance update
May 17 performance
June 17 performance
July 17 Performance
August 17 Performance
September 17 Performance
October 17 Performance
November 17 Performance
December 17 Performance
January 18 Performance
**Take profit will be updated accordingly in the future technical pulse report
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
22ETF Model Portfolio
February Update
Pei Sai Teng
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
12 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
23ETF Model Portfolio – February 2018
Aggressive Model Portfolio Balanced Model Portfolio Conservative Model Portfolio
Short Term Sovereign & Commodities Commodities
Commodities Chi na Equities Gold
Bond Credit Bond 5% Gol d 5%
10% 6% 5%
Gol d 10% 5% China 5% Short Term
5% Equi ties Short Term
Bond Ja pa n Equities
China U.S. 10% Bond
25% 6%
Equi ties Equities Ja pa n 30%
As i a-ex Japan
13% 13% Equi ties Equities
10% 6%
Ja pa n As i a-ex
Europe Europe Equities
Equi ties Ja pa n U.S. Sovereign &
Equi ties 6%
13% As i a-ex Japan Equities Europe Equities Credit Bond Sovereign &
16%
Equi ties 12% Equities 10% 10% U.S. Equi ties Credi t Bond
15% 13% 6% 30%
1 mth YTD 1 yr 3yr 5 yr
SG Aggressive Portfolio -4.1 2.0 20.3 23.3 37.2
SG Balanced Portfolio -3.6 1.0 16.8 19.7 29.5
SG Conservative Portfolio -2.9 0.0 10.7 14.9 19.7
US Aggressive Portfolio -4.4 0.8 19.4 22.4 39.2
US Balanced Portfolio -3.6 0.2 15.3 18.1 32.2
US Conservative Portfolio -2.7 -0.9 8.9 12.0 20.8
Note: Portfolio returns are inclusive of dividend reinvested and does not include any transaction costs or any other fees. Portfolio returns are calculated in USD.
Performance returns prior to May 2017 are backtested results on the assumption that the portfolios are rebalanced back to strategic asset allocation at the
end of each calendar year.
**Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
24SAA & Selected ETFs
Asset Class Singapore Listed ETFs U.S. Listed ETFs
Fixed-Income
Short Term Bond ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund SGX: A35 Short-Term Bond ETF AMEX: BSV
Sovereign & Credit
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Asia Credit Bond Index ETF SGX: QL2 iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF AMEX: LQD
Bond
Equity
U.S. Equities SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust SGX: S27 SPDR S&P 500 ETF AMEX: SPY
Europe Equities db x-trackers MSCI Europe Index UCITS ETF SGX: IH3 Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF AMEX: VGK
Asia-ex Japan
LYXOR MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF SGX: P60 iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF Nasdaq: AAXJ
Equities
Japan Equities db x-trackers - MSCI Japan TRN Index UCITS ETF SGX: LF2 iShares MSCI Japan ETF AMEX: EWJ
China Equities db x-trackers MSCI China TRN Index UCITS ETF SGX: LG9 iShares MSCI China ETF Nasdaq: MCHI
Alternatives
Gold SPDR Gold Shares SGX: O87 SPDR Gold Shares ETF AMEX: GLD
LYXOR Commodities Thomson Reuters/CoreComm CRB TR
Commodities SGX: A0W PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF AMEX: DBC
UCITS ETF
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
25Key Charts
Investment Grade Spread High Yield Spread Emerging Markets Spread
9.0 9.0
2.0
8.0 8.0
1.8 7.0
7.0
1.6 6.0 6.0
1.4 5.0 5.0
4.0 4.0
1.2
3.0 3.0
1.0
2.0 2.0
0.8
1.0 1.0
0.6 0.0 0.0
Jul-17
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-15
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-17
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-13
Jul-16
Jul-17
U.S. Gobal Euro U.S. Global Euro Emerging Markets Asia Latam
2s:10s TED Spread Volatility Measurement
70 40
150
135
60
120
30
105 50
90
40 20
75
60 30
45 10
30 20
15
10 0
0
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Sep-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
May-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Jul-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
May-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
VIX Index V2x index
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
26Singapore Strategy Update
March 2018
Paul Chew
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
12 March 2018
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
27Singapore Strategy Update – March 2018
• Macro/Sector
Trade wars is a concern; US investigation of China violating IP rights; Republican push back and only 2% of
imports so far
Latest US data makes goldilocks scenario back in play; monetary tightening scare remain in the
background; some inflation data rising above trend; worst case is tighten when economies rolling over
Singapore sectors: Property has been slower, secondary sales weakest since relaxation of property
measures; construction and healthcare seen some recovery
Electronics: semiconductor sales still robust
• BUY sustainable yield, Overweight cyclicals such as property, banks, electronics, consumer
Yield: AsianPayTV, Ascendas REIT ; most REITs now look more attractive post correction
Property: CapitaLand, ChipEng Seng; en-bloc liquidity yet to surface
Banyan Tree: large pipeline of hotel-management contracts for the next several years
Banking: switch from DBS to OCBC; SGX for pick-up in liquidity and volatility
Consumer: Laggard beneficiary – Sheng Siong, Dairy Farm, Thai Beverage, F&N
Transport: Comfort DelGro as non-taxi businesses pick up pace
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
28Ask Questions!
Archived Webinar videos can be accessed at:
Analysts
https://www.stocksbnb.com/webinars/ Paul Chew, Head of Research
Pei Sai Teng, Macro
Jeremy Ng, Technical Analysis
Soh Lin Sin, Consumer | Healthcare
Richard Leow, Transport | REITs (Industrial)
Dehong Tan, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property
Tara Wong, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property
Ho Kang Wei, US Equity
Chen Guangzhi, Oil and Gas | Energy
Alvin Chia, Research Associate
By Phillip Securities Research
Mohamed Amiruddin, Operations Exec
Have an opinion or questions on our reports?
Post them in the comment section of the report!
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
29Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“PSR”)
has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”)
contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSR has not verified this information
and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or
should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSR shall not
have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in
connection therewith. In no event will PSR be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be
incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial
situation or particular needs of any particular person.
You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific
investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 198803136N © PhillipCapital 2017. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.
Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
30You can also read
