Climate Change in the Swiss Alps - Center for Security Studies
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CSS Analyses in Security Policy
No. 290, September 2021
Climate Change
in the Swiss Alps
Climate change will increasingly impact everyday life in Switzerland.
A marked rise in heat, extreme precipitation, and associated natural
hazards is already damaging ecosystems, infrastructure, health, and
livelihoods. Collaboration and swift adaptation measures are required
to mitigate and cope with the consequences.
By Christine Eriksen
and Andrin Hauri
Climate change is not an abstract threat,
the consequences of which will affect us at
some distant point in the future. Its effects
are already felt across the globe, as evi-
denced in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Re-
port. The Copernicus Climate Change Ser-
vice recorded 2020 as the warmest year on
record in Europe – at least 0.4 degrees
warmer than the previous top-five years, all
of which have occurred since 2010. Land-
locked regions tend to heat up faster than
coastal regions, as they lack the cooling in-
fluence of the sea. There is also mounting
evidence that higher elevations warm faster
than lower elevations. The impact of climate
change on alpine regions, such as the Alps,
is particularly noteworthy.
Mud in a vineyard next to the Losentze river after a flash flood in Chamoson, Switzerland in August 2019.
In Switzerland, the annual average temper- Denis Balibouse / Reuters
ature has increased by nearly 2 degrees
Celsius since the pre-industrial era – al-
most twice as much as the average global
temperature increase. Other important Without concerted efforts to mitigate evaporation leading to drier soils and wa-
consequences of climate change are the greenhouse gas emissions, a further in- terbodies. However, warmer air can absorb
changes in frequency, intensity, and vari- crease in the annual average temperature of more moisture, which is one of the reasons
ability of extreme weather events. The 2 – 3 degrees is possible in Switzerland by extreme precipitation events like those ex-
CH2018 Climate Scenarios for Switzer- 2060. In summer, this would mean more perienced in parts of Europe this summer
land produced by the Swiss National Cen- frequent and extreme heat waves and hot will be more extreme and frequent in all
tre for Climate Services (NCCS) indicate days, and days that are on average up to 4.5 seasons. Winter months would be up to 3.5
likely climatic changes under various con- degrees warmer than today. Summer degrees warmer on average than today,
ditions by 2060 and by the end of the cen- months would also have less precipitation with the zero-degree temperature line be-
tury respectively. on average, with fewer rainy days and more ing up to 650 meters higher, and with less
© 2021 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich 1
CSS Analyses in Security Policy No. 290, September 2021
Consequences of Climate Change in Switzerland
snowfall and snow cover overall. The year- For example, farm abandonment in the intensity of uncontrollable forest fires,
round warmer temperatures in the Alps Alps has resulted in a gradual expansion of which in turn disrupt lives and livelihoods
will also accelerate the retreat of glaciers forested land since the mid-19th century, through associated economic impacts and
and the thawing of permafrost. while societal changes have simultaneously the health consequences of heat and smoke
seen more people participating in more particles that can travel far and wide.
Exploring how these climate scenarios will types of recreational activities in the moun-
likely play out in the Swiss Alps provides tains. Abandoned farms and expanding Mountain slopes that have been destabi-
insights into the broader consequences for forests equal more flammable vegetation, lized by drought and forest fire have re-
natural hazard management and everyday and more recreational activities often duced stability. Together with more intense
life in Switzerland. It also highlights some equals more sparks that can set this fuel precipitation events, this will result in soil
of the coping mechanisms available locally, alight. These are compounding issues to the erosion and more frequent landslides and
regionally, and internationally. cascading effects of climate change. rockfalls. The debris – as well as larger vol-
umes of water (in the form of heavy rain,
Natural Hazards Intensify The effects of climate change are cascading hail, and snow) – endangers downslope re-
As an alpine country, the pressure of global because one change results in, or interacts gions and increases the risk of tidal waves
warming is particularly pronounced in Swit- with, another change like a series of falling and flooding in water catchment areas.
zerland. Climate change will, for example, dominoes. A warmer and drier climate re-
directly affect the frequency and intensity of sults in drier vegetation and soil, water Another scenario that will unfold in paral-
natural hazards in the Alps. Societal chang- scarcity during summer months, along lel to the changes outlined above is the
es over time exacerbate the impact of the cli- with more high-fire danger days and lon- spread of harmful organisms, diseases, and
matic changes outlined above. It is helpful to ger forest fire seasons – not just on the alien or invasive species. Climate change,
understand these changes as “compounding southern side of the Alps where forest fires like warmer temperatures or reduced snow
issues” and “cascading effects” in order to vi- have traditionally been more common but cover, promotes their dissemination, as
sualize how climate change will likely play also north of the Alps. These conditions ex- does the presence of more people travelling
out in concrete terms. ponentially increase the risk, frequency, and in and through the Alps. They increase the
© 2021 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich 2CSS Analyses in Security Policy No. 290, September 2021
risk of animal and human illness (for ex- slopes endanger the electricity lines and gas together five partner organizations: police,
ample via the spread of ticks and tick- pipes that transport energy from abroad fire, healthcare, technical services, and the
borne diseases), and can have a disastrous and within Switzerland. On the upside, the civil protection organization (Zivilschutz).
impact on biodiversity, agriculture, and for- costs of winter services and road mainte- The cantons are responsible for these orga-
estry (such as tree dieback caused by the nance will likely decrease due to less snowy nizations on their territory, while the fed-
mountain pine bark beetle). The unique and icy conditions. eral level mainly coordinates and provides
biodiversity of Alpine ecosystems is vul- specialized support. This system has proven
nerable to the loss of habitat and invasive Depending on the concentration of CO2 its worth in the past. However, in the near
species with temperature rises, less snow, emissions going forward, between 63 and future Swiss civil protection will be con-
and the receding zero-degree temperature 94 per cent of the volume of ice in the Alps’ fronted with the more frequent climate-
line. It is therefore particularly important glaciers is expected to disappear by 2100. related hazards outlined above, for which it
to protect remaining habitats and to con- This will not only be a heartbreaking loss of has only limited theoretical and practical
nect fragmented habitats, as intact and net- Swiss environmental heritage with nega- experience and capacities.
worked habitats are more adaptable to cli- tive impacts on tourism, it will also mean
mate change. the loss of significant water reservoirs and More exchange and increased cooperation
the balancing effect glaciers have on runoff in the field of civil protection with other
Consequences for Swiss Society in downstream watercourses. While higher countries could therefore be advantageous.
The cascading effects of climate change in average temperatures may make the moun- As early as 2001, EU member states creat-
the Alps will soon shift from having an oc- tains more attractive for summer tourism, ed the Union Civil Protection Mechanism
casional to a perennial impact on everyday the economic and recreational viability of (UCPM) – a multilateral initiative to
life across Switzerland. The health impacts winter sport and winter tourism will de- strengthen cross-border cooperation in di-
of heat and smoke stress will not only be crease with reduced snow conditions. The saster preparedness and response. Member
an inconvenience for daily routines. They production of artificial snow is energy and states voluntarily pool their civil protection
will also add pressure on the healthcare water intensive, which makes it an expen- resources to support countries in need. The
system and increase the mortality rate, sive and environmentally unsustainable UCPM also aims to improve international
particularly for elderly and vulnerable temporary solution. Lower-lying winter disaster preparedness and prevention ac-
members of society. sport areas are already feeling the pinch. tivities by facilitating the exchange of
knowledge, best practices, and by strength-
Lower elevations and large urban areas act Responding to Climate Change ening cooperation through training. Par-
as heatsinks during heatwaves. This will re- How can we avert or at least partly mitigate ticipation in the UCPM is open to non-
sult in higher energy consumption for these gloomy future scenarios? Scientific EU member states for an annual fee. There
cooling purposes in summer months when knowledge clearly shows that reducing are pros and cons as well as long-term op-
hydropower production is expected to de- greenhouse gas emissions could
crease due to water scarcity. Conversely, the effectively stem climate change. Switzerland would do well to
change to milder winters with less snow The Paris 2015 Agreement
and more rain, and an increase in extreme aims to facilitate this reduction ensure that it achieves or
precipitation events, will both result in an by limiting global average sur- even exceeds the targets of the
increase in hydropower production and a face temperature increases to no
decrease in heating energy consumption more than 2 degrees above pre- Paris Agreement domestically.
during winter months. industrial levels. If the signatory
states meet the reduction targets, the portunities for Switzerland should it be-
Heat and water scarcity will also result in NCCS estimates that approximately half come a participating state of the UCPM
more restrictions on households’ everyday of the expected climatic changes in Swit- (see CSS report).
water consumption, and the die-off of fish zerland could be averted by mid-century
and crayfish with high water temperatures. and two-thirds by the end of the 21st cen- Bilateral agreements also offer a possible
Agriculture, viticulture, and forestry crop tury. insurance policy in disaster management.
losses will increase due to drought and fa- Switzerland currently has agreements with
vorable conditions for harmful organisms As a signatory state and an Alpine country all of its neighboring countries, which pro-
and diseases. However, higher mean tem- that is particularly affected by climate vide the legal basis for mutual aid in the
peratures also lengthen the growing season change, Switzerland would do well to en- event of a major incident via cross-border
and promote plant growth if adequate wa- sure that it achieves or even exceeds the cooperation, joint preparedness measures
ter supply is available. targets of the Paris Agreement domesti- through exercises and training workshops,
cally, while also working to ensure that this and the integration of cross-border emer-
The loss of glaciers and permafrost with the is the case internationally. In any case, gency services at different administrative
rise of the zero-degree temperature line Switzerland has to take stock of its current levels. Apart from Liechtenstein, all neigh-
will affect infrastructure. Warmer moun- capacity to respond to, mitigate, and pre- boring countries are member states of the
tain slopes will cause soil subsidence, which pare for the known consequences of cli- UCPM. Over the past two decades, they
will destabilize buildings, railway tracks, mate change. have developed common standards and sys-
and roads. The sediment, nutrients, and tems for cross-border deployments in the
pollutants carried away by soil erosion and In Switzerland, civil protection is the pri- EU – a process Switzerland has not been a
surface runoff also cause problems as they mary instrument for dealing with natural, part of. Neighboring countries now have
amass in aquatic ecosystems. Moreover, technological, and social hazards. It is or- less incentive to conduct joint exercises and
landslides and soil subsidence on mountain ganized as an integrated system that brings to formalize expert and knowledge
© 2021 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich 3CSS Analyses in Security Policy No. 290, September 2021
health, and spatial development. The sec- to aiding biodiversity via beehives placed in
Forest Fire 2020
ond part of the strategy consists of two ac- gardens and on urban rooftops. Such local
In response to society’s decreasing tolerance tion plans with concrete adaptation mea- actions are more likely to succeed with of-
for damage and the expected increase in sures to be implemented between ficial encouragement and support.
forest fires due to climate change, the
2014 – 2019 and 2020 – 2025 respectively.
canton of Ticino developed the concept of
“Forest Fire 2020”. It defines principles and
Outlook
objectives in four core areas of forest fire By 2020, 14 measures had been imple- Climate change has already led to many
management: 1) “prevention” targets public mented, 28 others were in progress, 19 changes. In the coming years, it will be-
awareness raising and forestry measures, were in the initial phase, and 2 measures come an all-encompassing challenge for
among others; 2) “technical and organiza-
had been postponed. An evaluation noted Switzerland, affecting and shaping all lay-
tional measures” concern the set-up of all
agencies involved in firefighting, and the that the strategy has created a common ers, sectors, and regions of society, especial-
provision of required infrastructure in and framework for coordinated action between ly in the Alps. It is no longer possible to
around forests; 3) “firefighting action” aims the Confederation and the can-
to minimize the direct damage to people tons, and by raising awareness, It is no longer possible to prevent
and property from forest fires; and 4)
it has compelled the federal of-
“post-fire management” identifies measures
fices responsible for the target-
climate change, only to limit its
such as how to restore forests after a fire.
ed areas to act. For example, the scale and consequences.
The concept builds on a cantonal history of Federal Office for Spatial De-
successfully implementing absolute fire bans
on high-fire danger days and forest fire velopment is working on spatial planning prevent this development, only to limit its
suppression, as well as a recognition that options that mitigate the build-up of heat scale and consequences through rapid
climate change will exacerbate existing risks. and increase the capacity to absorb rainwa- change, mitigation, and adaptation.
It applies to the entire canton and thus allows ter by creating more open and green urban
the planning, implementation, and evaluation spaces. Complementary efforts by the five Switzerland is not alone in facing these
of measures according to uniform standards.
partner organizations of Swiss civil protec- challenges. Collaboration and cooperation
tion to adapt and innovate at a cantonal on national and international levels are im-
level can also reduce the specific risks and portant to halt unchecked climate change.
concrete impacts of climate change. For Bilateral and multilateral agreements in the
example, the cantonal authorities in Tici- fields of civil protection, disaster manage-
exchanges with Switzerland, as they do this no, in cooperation with the Swiss Federal ment, and environmental protection aid ca-
on a much broader basis within the UCPM. Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape pacities to cope with the already unavoid-
These bilateral agreements are nevertheless Research WSL, developed the concept able consequences of climate change. Given
an important aspect of Swiss civil protec- “Forest Fire 2020” to mitigate the frequen- its geography, the compounding social is-
tion, warranting timely updates. cy of forest fires as well as their conse- sues, and the tangible cascading effects,
quences (see textbox). Switzerland should support existing and
Adaptation and Innovation emerging efforts to mitigate climate change.
In 2012, the Federal Council adopted the In addition to these official efforts, local
two-part strategy “Adapting to Climate and regional initiatives and projects can
Change in Switzerland” to enable Switzer- serve as impetus and models that enable
land to take advantage of the opportunities society to better meet the challenges ahead. For more on perspectives on socio-technical
presented by climate change, minimize the Individuals, neighborhoods, organizations, resilience, see CSS core theme page.
risks, and increase socioeconomic and envi- and businesses can all play a significant role
ronmental adaptability. The first part of the in mitigating climate change through deci-
strategy defined goals, challenges, and sions and actions that range from recycling
fields of action for the management of wa- of waste, sustainable water usage, installa- Christine Eriksen and Andrin Hauri are Senior
ter resources, natural hazards, agriculture, tion of solar panels for electricity genera- Researchers in the Risk and Resilience Team at the
forestry, energy, tourism, biodiversity, tion, and sustainable investment strategies, Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich.
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