Clean energy jobs in Regional NSW: A roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region
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Clean energy jobs in Regional NSW: A roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region The Climate Institute 27 January 2011 Funded by NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water
Will McGoldrick 27 January 2011
Policy and Research Manager
The Climate Institute
Level 4, 460 Bourke Street
MELBOURNE VIC 3000
Private and confidential
Clean energy jobs in Regional NSW: A roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region
Dear Will
We are pleased to deliver a draft of our final report on Clean energy jobs in Regional NSW: A roadmap for the NSW/ACT border
region.
The scope of the engagement was agreed between The Climate Institute and Ernst & Young in the contract dated 10 th August 2010.
The attached report provides the outcomes of this study. Our report sets out the report‟s limitations, key findings, and
interpretation of the information. Ernst & Young disclaims all liability to any party other than The Climate Institute.
Basis of Our Work
We have performed research and analysis using reports produced by The Climate Institute, analysis provided by McLennan
Magasnik Associates, and information provided by regional stakeholders from discussions held. This information was made
available to us within the timeframe specified for preparation of the report.
Whilst our aim is to provide accurate data and information, we have not independently verified, or accept any responsibility or
liability for independently verifying, any information, nor do we make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information in this report. We accept no liability for any loss or damage which may result from your reliance on any research,
analyses or information so supplied.
Yours sincerely
Matthew Bell
Executive Director
Ernst & Young
Liability limited by a scheme approved under
Professional Standards LegislationContents
1. Executive summary............................................................................................................................ 1
2. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 2
3. What is the renewables opportunity? .................................................................................................. 5
4. What jobs could be created in the NSW-ACT Border region? .................................................................. 8
5. What are the precinct‟s strengths and challenges? ............................................................................. 19
6. What does the precinct need to do in order to unlock this opportunity? ................................................ 27
Appendix A Technology specific supply chains ................................................................................. 31
© 2011 Ernst & Young Australia.
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Our report may be relied upon by The Climate Institute for the purpose of this engagement only pursuant to the terms of our engagement letter.
We disclaim all responsibility to any other party for any loss or liability that the other party may suffer or incur arising from or relating to or in any
way connected with the contents of our report, the provision of our report to the other party or the reliance upon our report by the other party.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young i1. Executive summary
1.1 Project overview and purpose
The objective of this report is to provide the NSW/ACT Border Region renewable energy precinct with a high level
view of the potential employment impacts that could result from the expansion of renewable energy generation
(„renewables‟) within the precinct and the next steps that should be considered to enable this employment
potential to be maximised. This roadmap sets out the potential for job creation in the precinct given scenarios for
renewable energy development, identifies the precinct‟s key strengths, challenges and skills gaps, and suggests a
range of initiatives and actions that should be taken to maximise the region‟s future employment opportunities.
The roadmap builds on outputs from previous stages of work from a wider project being undertaken by The
Climate Institute, as well as additional desktop research and consultations with key industry and regional
stakeholders.
1.2 Renewable energy potential
The NSW-ACT Border Region has, by far, the state‟s largest and most competitive wind resources, with a large
number of new wind farms to be developed in the coming years. Over 1,300MW capacity is predicted to be built by
2016 with the potential for further expansion after 2020 to 3,000MW if a more aggressive renewables scenario is
pursued.
1.3 New employment opportunities
It is estimated that over 200 permanent jobs to operate and maintain wind generation facilities could be created
by 2016 if the resource develops in line with the „base case‟ scenario. This number could increase further after
2024 to over 400 jobs if renewables are developed more aggressively. The majority of the construction phase is
forecast to take place between 2012 and 2015 which will require around 200 temporary workers initially, jumping
to 1,200 by 2014. More aggressive development of renewables suggests that there will be a further spurt for
temporary workers between 2022 and 2029, requiring between 200-800 construction workers.
The majority of these jobs will require electricians, engineers, technicians and general labourers.
1.4 Regional strengths and challenges
From an industry perspective, the NSW-ACT Border Region has strong agricultural and forestry industries which
require similar occupations to those required by the renewable energy industry. However the precinct also has
relatively less prominent construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating that the precinct may struggle to gain
some of the construction based job opportunities which will be available unless decisive action is taken.
Given the precinct‟s relatively small population and very large renewable energy potential, forecasts suggest that
there will not be enough available labour in the precinct to take advantage of all of the job opportunities available
unless a significant amount of up-skilling or re-skilling can be achieved in the immediate future. This is partly
because a lot of the construction is forecast to occur over a very short and concentrated period – 2014-2015.
Skills attraction into the precinct will be important in this respect, however infrastructure and housing may well be
insufficient to cope with the large influx of temporary workers that is predicted. Additional challenges for the
precinct include addressing the perceived lack of cohesion from businesses in the precinct, and the need for a
greater understanding of renewables in the wider community.
1.5 How to unlock this opportunity
There are a number of initiatives and next steps that need to be considered for the precinct to maximise
employment opportunities:
► Develop deeper understanding of the opportunity
► Raise awareness, understanding and buy-in from the business and wider community
► Up-skilling of the workforce
► Attract appropriately skilled workers to the region
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 12. Introduction
2.1 Context
The Climate Institute received a research grant from the NSW Government (Department of Energy, Climate Change
and Water) to assess and quantify the employment opportunities associated with the expansion of renewable
energy generation in each of the renewable energy precincts in NSW. This project was undertaken in three stages:
► Stage 1 – Assessment of the renewable energy potential in each precinct
► Stage 2 – Assessment of the employment potential in each precinct
► Stage 3 – Development of a regional clean energy jobs roadmap for each precinct
Ernst & Young was engaged to deliver Stage 3 of the project. This report draws on the outputs of Stages 1 and 2 as
well as regional and industry consultation.
2.2 What is the purpose of this roadmap?
The objective of the roadmap is to assist key regional stakeholders to maximise the region‟s future employment
opportunities.
This roadmap is not intended to be a definitive or comprehensive review of how to maximise the region‟s
renewables employment potential and it has reviewed each precinct at a high level only. It does however take
those first steps to setting out the employment potential and skills requirements in each precinct, as established
from the renewable energy potential identified in the earlier stages of the project. It also identifies the precinct‟s
key strengths, weaknesses and skills gaps and suggests a range of initiatives and next steps.
2.3 How was this roadmap developed?
As a precursor to this roadmap being developed, The Climate Institute commissioned consultants to quantify the
renewable energy potential in each precinct and estimate the number of operation and installation jobs that could
occur as a result.
Ernst & Young undertook desktop research to:
► Investigate the types of jobs and skills that would be required across the supply chain
► Identify the region‟s strengths and weaknesses
► Provide a high level estimate of new manufacturing jobs that could occur in the precinct
► Recommend initiatives and next steps for the precincts
This information was supplemented and refined through:
► A consultation with a range of regional stakeholders, as selected by the precinct coordinators
Several industry consultations designed to identify regional barriers from their perspective, refine assumptions
regarding the proportion of different occupations required to perform each, and confirm the proportion of jobs
expected to occur locally
2.4 About the NSW/ACT Border Region
The NSW/ACT Boarder Region precinct takes into account 40,629 km2 of land north of the ACT and as far north
to incorporate the Weddin Shire Council, and as far west as to incorporate the Cootamundra Shire Council and
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 2includes 12 local government areas (LGA).1 There are 49,954 people within this precincts labour force,
representing a participation rate of 58.8% - this is 0.1% lower than the state average. There is a lower
unemployment rate in the precinct at 5.1% when compared to the state average of 5.9%. Currently 560 people
are employed in the gas, water and electricity services industry.
Table 1 provides a summary of key socio-economic indicators based on the LGAs that make up this renewable
energy precinct.
Table 1: Summary of LGA socio-demographic profiles
Population Median age Average individual Average household
LGA Land area (km2) (people) (years) income ($) income ($)
Boorowa 2,579 2,253 44 18,928 34,320
Cootamundra 1,524 7,140 43 18,772 34,268
Goulburn Mulwaree 3,206 26,962 38 20,904 43,784
Gundagai 2,458 3,740 40 19,656 38,220
Harden 1,869 3,495 44 18,564 34,268
Junee 2,031 5,766 36 18,980 39,832
Palerang 5,167 12,386 39 31,616 66,820
Tumut 4,566 10,711 40 20,436 40,664
Upper Lachlan 7,129 6,840 43 19,344 37,700
Weddin 3,410 3,574 44 17,108 31,252
Yass 3,999 13,166 39 28,756 60,528
Young 2,694 11,774 37 19,292 35,932
Total 40,629 107,807 39 22,242 44,966
Source: ABS data, Ernst & Young analysis
This analysis found that The NSW/ACT Border Region is made up of:
► 40,629 km2 of land – approximately 30% of which is within the Upper Lachlan and Palerang LGAs.
► 107,807 people reside in this region – the largest population centres being Goulburn Mulwaree and
Palerang, with 36% of the precincts residents living in these LGAs.
► The population has a mean age of 39, although this varies between 36 (Junee) and 44 years of age (Harden,
Weddin and Boorowa) depending on the LGA.
► The average individual income within the region is $22,242, with an average household income of $44,966.
► Within this precinct Palerang residents earn on average the highest wages with the average household
earning $66,820 in 2006. The residents of the LGA of Yass also on average have household income of
greater than $60,000. The residents of Weddin currently earn the least within the precinct with an average
household earning of$31,252.
1 Boorowa, Cootamundra, Goulburn Mulwaree, Gundagai, Harden, Junee, Palerang, Tumut, Upper Lachlan,
Weddin, Yass, Young
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 32.5 Roadmap structure
Table 2 summarises the structure and content of each section of this report.
Table 2: Guide to this report
Section Content
3. What are the renewable A summary of the renewable energy potential in the precinct identified by The Climate Institute through a
energy opportunities? separate modelling exercise.
4. What jobs could be created The number of jobs that could be generated as a result of the renewables industry is set out for the
in the Central Tablelands installation and operation phases of the supply chain as estimated by The Climate Institute. These job
Precinct? estimates are broken down into the skills (by technology type) that would be required and assumptions
about local resource availability. A high level estimate of manufacturing job potential is also made.
5. What are the precinct‟s Strengths and weaknesses are set out from an industry, manufacturing, educational, skills and training, and
strengths and weaknesses? other perspective based on desktop research and stakeholder consultation. This helps to identify how the
precinct should focus its efforts with regards to the renewable industry.
6. What does the precinct The final section sets out some suggestions for initiatives and further work that is needed in these areas to
need to do in order to unlock ensure the precinct is equipped for this emerging industry and is able to maximise the number of jobs that
this opportunity? are created as a result.
2.6 Limitations of this work
The nature and content of any analysis that we have provided necessarily reflect the specific scope and limitations
of our engagement, the accuracy and quality of the information that was provided to us (both from published
sources and provided by stakeholders) and the timescale within which the advice was required. The services
provided in this engagement were advisory in nature and thus did not constitute an audit or review in accordance
with Australian Auditing Standards or an engagement to perform Agreed-Upon-Procedures.
The information contained in this document is provided on the basis that it neither represents nor is intended to
be legal, tax, investment or other professional advice. Interested parties must take steps to verify the information
contained in this publication, as well as any additional or supporting information supplied, prior to acting or
relying on such information. If expert advice is required, competent professional advice should be obtained. Ernst
& Young gives no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data, views,
conclusions, comparisons or insights contained in this publication. Ernst & Young expressly disclaim all
responsibility and all liability to any third parties that rely upon the information contained within this report.
An element of the report comprises the views of stakeholders. The views contained in this report are therefore not
necessarily those held by Ernst & Young. It was not within the scope of this project to verify any of these
statements. However, where possible, these are reported as a consensus view across the stakeholder group.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 43. What is the renewables opportunity?
The potential renewables opportunity in the NSW/ACT Border Region has been estimated by McLennan Magasnik
Associates (MMA) through a separate modelling exercise undertaken for The Climate Institute. These estimates,
which form the basis of the analysis in this roadmap, are summarised in the following section.
The NSW-ACT Border Region has one of the state‟s largest and most competitive wind resources, with a large
number of new wind farms to be developed in the coming years. The region also hosts around half of the state‟s
existing hydro capacity, which make up part of the iconic Snowy Hydro Scheme. Hydro is not considered further in
this analysis, which focuses on emerging renewable technologies.
3.1 Renewable energy potential estimated by MMA
The Climate Institute commissioned modelling by energy sector consultants MMA to provide an indication of how
much of the NSW/ACT Border Region‟ renewable energy resource might be developed over the next two decades.
For the purposes of this study, we have defined the modelling results as the „base case‟ scenario.
A full explanation of the modelling including all assumptions is outlined in a detailed methodology published
separately. In brief, the main drivers of renewable energy uptake are the government policies designed to
incentivise investments in clean energy sources, particularly the national 20% Renewable Energy Target (RET) and
the NSW solar feed-in tariff. It was also assumed that a carbon price would be in place from 2012. However, it
should be noted that the main driver of renewable energy in the short to medium term will be the RET, with the
carbon price playing a more influential role post-2020.
The modelling accounts for existing state and federal policies, but does not assess the impact of potential future
local efforts to promote renewable energy investments. Instead it provides a baseline scenario of how the
precinct‟s renewable energy resource might be deployed in the absence of a concerted local effort to promote
renewable energy. The challenge for local stakeholders and the state government is to ensure that even more of
the NSW/ACT Border Region‟s renewable energy potential is developed.
The modelling results shown in Figure 1 suggest that much of the NSW-ACT Border Region renewable energy
resource will be constructed in the immediate future and will come on line from 2016, delivering over 1,300MW
capacity. This is due to the relatively low cost of wind compared to other regions.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 5Figure 1: Renewable energy generation capacity based on MMA estimates in the ACT Border Precinct
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
Capacity (MW)
400
200
0
2011
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Year
Wind PV Solar water heating
Source: MMA Modelling
The modelling predicts that none of the precinct‟s bioenergy resource will be developed before 2030. This
suggests that compared to other precincts, the NSW/ACT Border Region‟ bioenergy resources are relatively more
expensive. However, further analysis is required to better understand these costs.
Uptake of small scale solar PV and solar hot water in the NSW-ACT Border Region is projected to increase
significantly in the coming two decades and could make up to 30% of total renewable energy generated in the
region by 2030. Small scale PV is expected to increase from a current capacity of 6 MW to more than 15 MW by
2030. By 2030 the number of buildings with solar hot water units installed is projected to rise to over 12,000, up
from an estimated 2,000 today.
3.2 The Climate Institute ‘enhanced renewables’ scenario
In addition to the base case scenario, described in section 3.1, an enhanced renewables scenario was developed
to illustrate a more aggressive pathway for renewable energy development in the region. The enhanced scenario
builds on the base case by assuming that a much larger share of the region‟s known renewable energy capacity is
deployed over the next two decades.
The results for the enhanced scenario (Figure 2) are based partly on the results from the base case for the post-
2030 period and partly on assumptions about the size of different renewable energy resources in the region.
Under the enhanced scenario, each region‟s known wind and biomass capacity is assumed to be fully exploited by
2030. In those regions with large solar resources, it is assumed that a maximum of 750 MW of this resource will
be deployed through large scale projects over the next two decades. This is a conservative cap, based on feedback
from regional and industry stakeholders.
Given the already aggressive development of the precinct‟s wind resource in the base case scenario, the enhanced
renewables scenario forecasts only slightly higher wind generation potential out to 2023. After this point,
additional wind capacity is installed and is forecast to reach 3,000MW by 2030.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 6Figure 2: Renewable energy generation capacity based on enhance renewable scenario in the ACT Border Precinct
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Capacity (MW)
1,000
500
0
2011
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Year
Wind PV Solar water heating
Source: Climate Institute
3.3 Additional renewables potential identified through
stakeholder consultation
Although MMA and The Climate Institute only assessed the potential for small scale solar and solar hot water
units, there is likely to be additional or alternative potential for a number of other smaller scale renewables as
highlighted by stakeholder discussions. These are not covered in detail for the purposes of this study but are
discussed briefly below.
► Given that there are many medium to large scale farmers in the region that use a significant amount of
electricity through activities such as pumping, there could be opportunities for these farms to install small
to mid scale electricity generating facilities such as wind turbines to power their business or bioenergy
production from aerobic and anaerobic digestion of farm wastes.
► Given the geography of the region which consists of disparate towns spread across a wide distance,
distributed generation is seen as an attractive option for the region, particularly co- and tri-generation and
could be a way of generating more energy from the human waste stream.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 74. What jobs could be created in the NSW-ACT Border
region?
This section assesses the potential employment demand in the NSW/ACT Border Region and the specific
occupations, associated with the development of the region‟s renewable energy resources.
An overarching and generic assessment was made regarding the stages of the supply chain most likely to
generate local jobs. These stages were then examined in more detail to determine the number of jobs that could
occur in each precinct and occupation type. The stages include:
► Construction/installation/transportation
► Operation and maintenance
► Manufacturing
For the „construction/installation/transportation‟ and „operation and maintenance‟ stages, the Climate Institute
estimated employment figures based on the renewable energy generation scenarios set out in section 3. A full
explanation of The Climate Institute‟s methodology is published separately. In summary, The Climate Institute
developed employment coefficients for each renewable energy technology (i.e. jobs/MW installed), based on
Australian and International experience. These coefficients were used to estimate the number of construction and
ongoing jobs supported each year as the region‟s renewable energy resource is developed. A key determinant of
employment is the timing of implementation of renewable energy projects.
Based on this analysis supplied by The Climate Institute, Ernst & Young assessed the occupations that are likely to
be required. This was conducted via a review of existing data on the mix of occupations per renewable technology
and stakeholder discussions.
Ernst & Young also made some initial estimates regarding the regional employment potential from manufacturing.
This is based on the proportion of NSW manufacturing that occurs within each precinct.
4.1 Renewable industry supply chain
As a result of the expansion of renewable power generation, there will be a need for workers across a diverse
range of industries including education, government administration, finance, transport, communication,
construction, manufacturing, business services, mining and agriculture. The jobs likely to be created will occur
along the supply chain but not all these will occur within the region. For example, many primary components of
wind turbines and solar panels are imported from abroad. Similarly, project developers are likely to be located in
major cities rather than regional areas. However, there are still many parts of the supply chain that could support
regional jobs. These are likely to be focussed on construction/installation/transportation, operation and
maintenance and selected materials/component manufacturing parts of the supply chain.
Table 3 sets out the different stages of a typical renewable energy supply chain. It identifies at a generic level, the
potential for each stage to occur in the precinct. This is a generic assessment and individual precincts will vary
depending on their characteristics and capabilities, as will certain technologies and their scale.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 8Table 3: Supply chain stages
R&D Feasibility, project management and Manufacturing Construction, installation, Operation and maintenance Project support Industry support
design transport
Research and development is Project developers oversee the project The manufacture of the componentry The construction and installation Renewable technologies will General support skills will be There will be a
required to improve existing from conception to completion. needed for a functioning renewable of the technology and surrounding require ongoing maintenance. needed across the supply requirement for general
technologies energy generation source. site requirements. chain, including: government oversight and
For small scale renewables this part of Maintenance is carried out on- ► Management support support across the supply
e.g. increase the efficiency of the supply chain can be fairly minimal This can be split into primary and Installation could typically require site and for larger scale ► Administration support chain, such as
solar panels or develop new with this being undertaken by the secondary componentry. crane hire, transportation and operations, performance is ► Specialist consultants ► Government officials
technologies installers themselves. logistics, and skilled technicians monitored remotely via (e.g. inspectors etc)
Primary componentry is often to construct the technology for computer. ► Government program
e.g. geothermal hot rock For large scale renewables projects this manufactured abroad and imported, larger scale installations. delivery
Supply chain description
development can be a major part of the supply chain such as blades for wind turbines or solar Typical activities under this stage ► Industry groups
from site identification and evaluation, panels. Civil and electrical services are include: ► Training
consultation with local stakeholders, typically contracted out separately organisations
project design, planning approval, Secondary componentry includes less and will require similar ► Monitoring
securing financial backing and agreeing technical items such as machined parts, construction requirements in ► Energy assessments
purchase of RECs, negotiating fixings, electrical components, pipes order to put in the foundations ► Performance evaluation
procurement contracts for different and also the components required to and access roads as well as the ► Grid connection
parts of the build process, compliance construct any surrounding infrastructure cabling and any transmission management
with regulatory requirements. such as concrete blocks for requirements. ► Operation
foundations. ► Maintenance/repair
► Spare parts
Typically limited potential Typically limited potential Some potential for secondary Yes potential to source Yes potential to source O&M Small potential Some potential although
compentry construction and installation employees locally numbers likely to be small
Typically located at Likely to occur in Australia but typically employees locally This will be required across
universities and therefore The majority of primary components are Permanent operation and the supply chain and is likely
Potential for precinct based employment
located centrally eg Sydney, although Although policy experts
likely to be city based. Much some may set up satellite offices likely to be sourced internationally Many of the installation jobs maintenance jobs will require to occur in the location of the are likely to be located
research will also occur locally where significant project activity under current conditions with the including balance of plant works local technicians and engineers. industry it is servicing. Most centrally, inspectors and
internationally. occurs. exception of a few specific items such will be sourced locally depending of the jobs are likely to occur educators could be
as wind towers which are currently on availability. at the feasibility, project located locally, but may
Local precincts may be able Given the importance of local produced outside of NSW. management and design cover a number of
to benefit from the knowledge and expertise, there may be Some of the specialist assembly phase and therefore are likely precincts.
commercialisation if located some use of local consultants. Secondary componentry and other civil jobs may be undertaken by to be centrally based.
close to an R&D centre – e.g. and electrical works have the propensity experts who are contracted in For small scale, this is
the CSIRO energy research to be produced in the precinct. from outside the local area. For small scale, this is more more likely to be locally
For small scale, this stage of the supply
hub in Newcastle Examples of these include fencing, likely to be locally sourced. sourced.
chain is likely to be sourced locally.
metal casings and concrete foundations Wind and solar developers cite
blocks. that around 80% of installation
jobs will be sourced locally where
For small scale, there is a propensity to this is possible.
manufacture more components locally.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 94.2 Regional employment potential
The proceeding section highlighted that the following stages of the supply chain had the most potential to create
local employment:
► Construction/installation/transportation (CIT)
► Operation and maintenance (O&M)
► Manufacturing
Estimates of regional employment potential are summarised in the following sub-sections.
It should be emphasised that not all of these jobs are likely to occur within the precinct boundaries. Wind and
solar stakeholders suggested that up to 80% of available jobs may be sourced locally with the more highly skilled
jobs (e.g. engineers) sourced more widely. This figure will vary according to factors including local capacity and
the relationships of wind developers with national companies.
For small-scale projects, there is potential for all of these jobs to be filled by local residents, but precinct specific
jobs will depend on local business appetite. The estimates presented below therefore, should be regarded as
upper estimates. A challenge for the precinct will be to unlock as many of these jobs as possible.
4.2.1 Operation and maintenance employment
Figure 3 shows that around 200 permanent jobs to operate and maintain wind generation facilities could be
created by 2016 if the resource develops in line with the base case scenario. As outlined in Figure 4, this number
could increase further after 2024 to over 400 jobs if renewables are developed more aggressively as per the
„enhanced renewables‟ scenario.
Figure 3: O&M employment based on MMA modelling for the NSW/ACT Border Region
250
200
150
100
FTE
50
0
Year
Wind PV
Source: Climate Institute
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 10Figure 4: O&M employment based on enhanced renewable scenario in the NSW/ACT Border Region
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
FTE
150
100
50
0
2027
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
2030
Year
Wind PV
Source: Climate Institute
4.2.2 Construction employment
Construction phase employment includes the total temporary workforce supported during the construction phase,
for example trades people (e.g. construction workers, electricians etc), engineers, consultants and other manual
workers involved during the construction phase. The timing of this employment will depend on assumptions
regarding when the renewable resources are constructed.
Based on MMA‟s modeling, which defines the base case scenario (Figure 5), the majority of the construction
phase will take place between 2012 and 2015 which will require around 200 temporary workers initially, jumping
to 1,200 by 2014.
The enhanced scenario renewables (Figure 6) suggests that there will be an extra spurt for temporary worker
demand between 2022 and 2029, requiring between 200-800 construction workers.
Figure 5: Construction employment based on MMA modelling in the NSW/ACT Border Region
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
FTE
400
200
0
Year
Wind PV Solar water heating
Source: Climate Institute
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 11Figure 6:Construction employment based on enhanced renewable scenario estimates in the NSW/ACT Border Region
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
FTE
400
200
0
Year
Wind PV Solar water heating
Source: Climate Institute
4.2.3 Manufacturing employment
Most primary components for renewable technologies are imported from overseas. The exception is wind towers
(produced outside of NSW) and solar hot water units (produced in various locations). Potential for this precinct to
enter the primary manufacturing market is therefore not considered as part of this analysis. However, the precinct
has potential to produce secondary componentry for each renewable energy source, for example, brackets for
solar panels, handrails for wind turbines, concrete blocks for foundations and pipes for solar hot water units.
However, given its relatively strong manufacturing base and existing industries, the NSW/ACT Border Region is in
a strong position to take advantage of these secondary componentry manufacturing opportunities.
The Climate Institute estimated the total number of manufacturing jobs that could be realised within NSW based
on:
► The anticipated amount of renewable generation in the state
► An estimate of how many manufacturing jobs are likely to be generated per MW of renewable energy
► An assumption that 10% of all manufacturing will occur in NSW, with the remainder being imported from
national and international sources
It was assumed that the manufacturing that would accrue to each precinct was proportional to the current level of
manufacturing in the precinct relative to the rest of NSW. This provides an indication of the region‟s current
manufacturing capacity/skills base and therefore should be considered as minimum estimate only.
Table 4: Manufacturing employment estimates for the NSW/ACT Border Region (number of jobs, FTE)
2010 2020 2030
Base case scenario 2 5 5
Enhanced renewables scenario 5 11 12
Source: EY estimates
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 12The results show that a reasonably small number of jobs might be created in the region as a result of an increase
in the renewable energy resource but it should be remembered that this is a lower end estimate assuming the jobs
are spread around NSW according to where manufacturing happens currently. The challenge for the region is to
try to capture a greater share of the local manufacturing potential which would otherwise accrue to some of the
bigger manufacturing centres.
4.2.4 Other employment potential across the supply chain
In addition to the job categories assessed above, additional regional employment opportunities along the supply
chain may include:
► Research and development (R&D): A significant impact on employment is not expected given the much
greater capacity for R&D to be undertaken in universities or research institutions. However, some knock on
benefits could be expected through trials in the region.
► Project development: A significant impact on employment is not expected due to the centralised location of
many project developers. Some additional jobs within local consultancies may occur where regional,
specific knowledge is captured.
► Industry support: The precinct could benefit from an increased demand for local educators, trainers and
inspectors.
4.3 Occupational breakdown
Across the supply chain, a range of occupations will be required. A breakdown of occupations is presented based
on publically available estimates, Ernst & Young estimates and industry consultations.
The types of occupations required for each stage of the supply chain are described in
Table 5 together with the training requirements.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 13Table 5: Breakdown of occupations
R&D Feasibility, project management Manufacturing Construction/Installation Operation & maintenance Project support Industry support
and design /transportation
► Scientists, ► Project managers ► Skilled workers for ► Civil engineers and ► Service technicians ► Management and ► Lawyers
► Engineers ► Renewable energy primary component technicians ► Performance monitors administration personnel ► Policy experts
► Meteologists consultant design ► Electrical engineers, ► Electrical, environmental ► Health and Safety ► Inspectors
► IT programmers ► Engineers (Mechanical, ► Variety of non-skilled and technicians and and civil engineers for the Experts ► Planners
► Statisticians Electricial) semi-skilled workers for tradespeople management of plants ► Accountants ► Educators
► Research technicians ► Material, environemental, production lines e.g. ► Variety of non-skilled and ► Software engineers ► Marketing ►
Job categories
civil, aeronautical metal welders, semi-skilled workers for ► Customer service
► EIS (EIA) specialists carpenters site installation e.g. representatives
► Metrologists, geologists crane operators, drivers, ► Lawyers
► Programmers plumbers ► Financiers
► Scientists ► Control, automation and ► Marketing personnel,
► Economists/statisticians software engineers ► Event Organisers
/modellers ► Caterers
► Energy policy experts and ► Hoteliers
community advocacy ► Site security
specialists ► Cleaners
Predominantly professionals Predominently professionals Predominently tradespeople, Predominently tradespeople, Predominently specialist Various levels of training Predominantly professional level
E.g. Bachelor, Post Graduate or E.g. MBAs, Bachelor, Post specialist labourers and general specialist labourers and general tradespeople with specific required from certificates and qualifications
Doctorate qualifications Graduate or Doctorate labourers labourers training from renewable energy diplomas in business services E.g. bachelor degrees in a
qualifications for project E.g. certificates in process E.g. certificates/ diplomas in companies training to degrees in law, number of relevant subjects
Indicative occupational training requirements
management and other technical manufacturing, resources and infrastructure finance, marketing, required for policy/planning
specialist subjects electrotechnology, diplomas of industry, electrotechnology, Eg certificate/diploma in communications. advice.
Some Para-professionals
mechanical/manufacturing machine operations. electrotechnology, mechanics.
Technical and research
specialists Some Para-professionals engineering Specialist training courses
Diplomas for on-the-ground For some technologies, Also professionals with eg required to become an inspector.
research for site evaluation specialist training from degree level qualifications in
renewable energy companies engineering. Teaching qualifications.
may be provided.
Some professionals e.g. degrees
in engineering.
Taking the operation and maintenance and the construction/installation/transportation categories, and given the job forecasts estimated above, a breakdown of the job types that are likely to be in demand is
estimated in the sections that follow.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 144.3.1 Operation and maintenance occupation breakdown
EY have analysed the likely breakdown of operation and maintenance related occupations using published data
and a number of informed assumptions. Figure 7 shows that under the base case scenario of renewables
development, technicians and electricians will be two of the main occupation categories required in the region, for
which the demand will expand rapidly past 2020 as wind farms come on line. Engineers, machine operators and
general labour also become increasingly important towards 2030.
Figure 7: Occupation breakdown for O&M employment for MMA scenario for the NSW/ACT Border Region
250
Machine operators
Jobs (Full time equivalent - FTE)
200
Plumbers
Management
150
Administration staff
Sales staff
100
Distribution
General labour
50
Technicians
Electricians
0
2010 2020 2030 Engineers
Year
Source: EY calculations. 2020 figure represents an average from 2011-2020. 2030 represents an average from 2021-2030.
This is also illustrated in the table below:
Table 6: Occupation breakdown for O&M employment for MMA scenario for the ACT Border Precinct
2011-2020 2021-2030
2010 (FTE) average (FTE) average (FTE)
Engineers 3 12 21
Electricians 12 49 83
Technicians 7 29 49
General labour 4 15 24
Distribution 1 1 1
Sales staff 0 0 0
Administration staff 1 6 10
Management 1 3 5
Plumbers 0 0 0
Machine operators 2 9 15
Total 31 125 209
Source: Ernst & Young calculations
Under the enhanced scenario, the same trend is seen but with a greater number of jobs required between 2021-
2030 as wind farm capacity expands further (Figure 8 and Table 7).
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 15Figure 8: Occupation breakdown for O&M employment for enhanced renewable scenario for the NSW/ACT Border Region
300
Machine operators
250
Plumbers
200 Management
Administration staff
Jobs (FTE)
150
Sales staff
100 Distribution
General labour
50
Technicians
Electricians
0
2010 2020 2030 Engineers
Year
Source: Ernst & Young Calculations. 2020 figure represents an average from 2011-2020. 2030 represents an average from 2021-2030.
Table 7: Occupation breakdown for O&M employment for enhanced renewable scenario for the NSW/ACT Border Region
2021-2030 average
2010 (FTE) 2011-2020 average (FTE) (FTE)
Engineers 1 12 28
Electricians 3 49 113
Technicians 2 29 67
General labour 1 15 33
Distribution 1 1 1
Sales staff 0 0 0
Administration staff 0 6 14
Management 0 3 7
Plumbers 0 0 0
Machine operators 0 9 21
Total 8 126 284
Source: EY Calculations
It should be noted that this analysis assumes that all O&M jobs will occur in the precinct. Industry stakeholders
suggest that up to 80% of these jobs could typically occur on a local level with the rest occurring at a centralised
location such as a major city. The challenge for the precinct is to position itself so that it can gain as many of
these jobs as possible.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 164.3.2 Construction Occupation Breakdown
Using the same methodology as above to determine the occupational breakdown, Figure 9 and Table 8 show that
at peak construction times – 2014-2015, there will be significant but temporary demand for engineers,
technicians, electricians, general labourers and machine workers.
Figure 9: Occupation breakdown for construction employment based on MMA modelling for the NSW/ACT Border Region
1400
1200
1000
Jobs (FTE)
800
600
400
200
0
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Engineers Electricians Technicians
General labour Distribution Sales staff
Administration staff Management Plumbers
Machine operators
Source: Climate Institute
Table 8: Occupation breakdown for construction employment based on MMA modelling for the NSW/ACT Border Region
2011-2020 2021-2030 Max year 2014
2010 (FTE) average (FTE) average (FTE) (FTE)
Engineers 0 57 12 241
Electricians 15 36 20 127
Technicians 17 80 21 325
General labour 9 40 10 163
Distribution 2 15 5 61
Sales staff 0 15 4 61
Administration staff 2 15 5 61
Management 0 15 4 61
Plumbers 2 3 6 2
Machine operators 0 28 6 121
Total 49 304 93 1222
Source: EY calculations
In the enhanced renewables scenario, the picture is similar with additional technicians, electricians and
engineers required from 2022-2029 as additional wind capacity is built (Figure 10 & Table 9).
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 17Figure 10: Occupation breakdown for construction employment based on enhanced renewable scenario estimates for the NSW/ACT Border
Region
1400
1200
1000
Jobs (FTE)
800
600
400
200
0
2010
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Engineers Electricians Technicians
General labour Distribution Sales staff
Administration staff Management Plumbers
Machine operators
Source: Climate Institute
Table 9: Occupation breakdown for construction employment based on enhanced renewable scenario estimates for the NSW/ACT Border
Region
2011-2020 2021-2030 Max year 2014
2010 (FTE) average (FTE) average (FTE) (FTE)
Engineers 35 58 74 241
Electricians 33 37 50 127
Technicians 64 82 102 325
General labour 32 41 51 163
Distribution 11 16 20 61
Sales staff 9 15 19 61
Administration staff 11 16 20 61
Management 9 15 19 61
Plumbers 2 3 6 2
Machine operators 17 29 37 121
Total 222 312 400 1222
Source: EY calculations
4.3.3 Technology specific supply chain breakdowns
Appendix A presents further information on the occupations likely to be in demand for different technologies
along their supply chains. This includes a summary of the „operational and maintenance‟ and „construction stage‟
jobs.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 185. What are the precinct‟s strengths and challenges?
This section explores the region‟s strengths and weaknesses in relation to the industries and occupational
requirements previously identified. The aim is to assist in the assessment of how ready the region is to deal with a
growing renewable energy industry. It covers the following categories:
► Industry
► Labour supply
► Training
► Other
5.1 Industry
Table 10 presents the relative size of industries in NSW and the NSW/ACT Border Region precinct as a proportion
of total industry output. This provides a broad indication of the industries where the NSW-ACT Border Region
precinct has a competitive advantage. The region‟s industrial strengths display a good correlation to the
industries that have most application and transferable skills to the renewables industry, with the exception of the
construction industry which is slightly below NSW average.
Table 10: Industry in the NSW/ACT Border Region, compared to NSW as a whole
Regional profile category Industry Breakdown
in the NSW/ACT
Industry Breakdown Border Region
in NSW (% of total (% of total regional
NSW output) output)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3% 14%
Mining 1% 0%
Manufacturing 10% 8%
Electricity, gas, water & waste services 1% 1%
Construction 8% 7%
Wholesale trade 5% 3%
Retail trade 11% 11%
Accommodation & food services 7% 7%
Transport, postal & warehousing 5% 5%
Information media & telecommunications 2% 1%
Financial & insurance services 5% 2%
Rental, hiring & real estate services 2% 1%
Professional, scientific & technical services 8% 5%
Administrative & support services 3% 2%
Public administration & safety 6% 10%
Education & training 8% 7%
Health care & social assistance 11% 10%
Arts & recreation services 1% 1%
Other services 4% 7%
Source: ABS statistics
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 19► The precinct‟s greatest economic competitive advantage is in agriculture, forestry and public
administration. The agricultural sector typically employs tradespeople and general labourers – the same job
categories that are typically required in the renewable energy sector. Furthermore, there are a range of
particular skills from this industry that could put the region in s an advantageous position in the emerging
renewable energy sector: for example, the agricultural sector requires metal welding for irrigation
equipment. The manufacturing of secondary componentry for renewable energy projects requires similar
skills to produce supporting infrastructure for other projects (e.g. welders). Another example is the forestry
sector – with a prevalent forestry sector, this makes wood waste a particular resource for the region that
could be used for biomass to produce energy. A strong presence of Public Administration could provide an
opportunity for their buildings to demonstrate some of the renewable technologies in the region to increase
awareness and understanding.
► Manufacturing is below the NSW average, which indicates that the region would not be in a particularly
strong position to capture all of the opportunities from locally sourced secondary componentry.
► Construction is slightly below the NSW average and transport and warehousing is around average: these are
both industries which will be particularly important with regards to the construction phases of renewable
energy projects.
► The precinct‟s greatest economic weaknesses are within the finance and professional, and scientific and
technical services industries, indicating that stages of the supply chain like R&D and project development
are unlikely to locate in this region.
5.1.1 Local manufacturing potential
Table 11 provides the ABS estimate of the number of manufacturing business and the number of people employed
in the manufacturing industry within this region.
Table 11: Summary of manufacturing profile (2006)
number of manufacturing
LGA total manufacturing jobs businesses
Boorowa 24 12
Cootamundra 309 51
Goulburn Mulwaree 859 105
Gundagai 156 3
Harden 87 15
Junee 199 9
Palerang 329 78
Tumut 701 27
Upper Lachlan 119 24
Weddin 57 6
Yass 234 42
Young 532 0
Total 3,607 372
Source: ABS statistics
Businesses that are likely to participate in the manufacturing of components and equipment for the renewable
energy industry would be those that currently produce similar products for other industries. During the
consultation process, regional stakeholders identified a number of companies that they believed may have the
potential to manufacture components and equipment based on their existing capabilities. No direct discussions
were held with the companies listed, nor is it a comprehensive review of all of potential businesses within the
region. However, it does provide some indication of the precinct‟s potential in this respect.
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 20► Specific renewables companies situated in the precinct
► Component manufacturers: Stakeholders highlight that there are many manufacturers around the region
that have ability to manufacture products related to the industry eg metal bashing, kiosks, transformers.
► Works companies: Stakeholders report that there are 6-7 works companies in the region who subcontract to
local civil companies.
► Other: An innovative software company was also mentioned as an example of how the region‟s businesses
were embracing and adapting to new technologies.
5.2 Proximity to Canberra
The NSW-ACT Border precinct‟s proximity to Canberra means that many of Canberra‟s strengths in the renewable
energy sector have the potential to transfer into benefits for the precinct through increasing employment,
attracting businesses and hosting demonstration projects. The challenge for the NSW-ACT Border precinct is to
leverage this potential for the benefit of the precinct.
The ACT‟s Gross State Product (GSP) rose by 5 per cent in volume terms in 2006-07 to reach A$21 billion. The
ACT‟s growth in GSP was higher than the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 3.2 per cent. Over
the past 10 years, GSP in Canberra has grown in real terms by almost 40 per cent.
There are more than 25,000 businesses in Canberra covering almost every conceivable form of activity and
business structure. They range in size from multinationals that have strategically chosen Canberra so they can be
close to the Australian Government‟s A$200 billion procurement decisions. Canberra is also home to many of
Australia‟s national representative bodies and professional societies.
Canberra was also one of the first cities in the world to introduce a broadband fibre-optic network.2
The competitive advantages possessed by Canberra include:
► loyal, plentiful and skilled workforce
► easy access to major centres of Melbourne and Sydney
► sophisticated telecommunications services
► progressive, co-operative approach to industrial relations
► leading University, and education facilities
► highest wages in Australia
Major industry sectors of Canberra include:
► Public administration
► Food services and accommodation
Furthermore, stakeholders report that Canberra university is considering opening up campuses in the precinct.
The surrounding area of the precinct can offer similar employment opportunities to those located in the precinct.
For example it is reported that „Wizard‟ have been looking at building mirrors for its solar flagships program in
Queanbeyan. This is an industry that is believed to have big export and therefore growth potential.
5.3 Existing labour supply
Assessing the current labour supply helps to form a picture of the general capacity of the precinct to supply labour
to the growing renewables industry. Ernst & Young has undertaken this assessment using current ABS statistics,
together with a number of assumptions set out below.
5.3.1 Level of education
As shown in section 4, many of the potential precinct-based jobs will require a variety of skilled and unskilled
labour. Many of the occupations that require degrees and post-graduate qualifications (e.g. R&D or project
management) are more likely to be sourced centrally or from nearby Canberra. This is consistent with the level of
education in the precinct. ABS statistics show that compared to the state average, the NSW/ACT Border Region
2 www.business.act.gov.au
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 21has a smaller proportion of the population with advanced qualifications and a larger proportion of the population
with certificate level education. This implies that the precinct has suitable education levels to capitalise on the
renewable energy industry growth.
Based on ABS statistics, 62% of the labour force possesses higher education certificate or degrees compared to a
state average of 69%. Of these:
► 53% gained a certificate
► 4% gained a graduate diploma
► 17% gained an advanced diploma
► 22% gained a bachelor degree
► 5% gained a post graduate degree
The top three categories for higher education qualifications are:
► Food and hospitality: 28%
► Engineering and related technologies: 18%
► Management and commerce: 14%
5.3.2 Potential labour supply
An assessment of the precinct‟s capacity to absorb jobs created by the emergence of a renewable industry was
made by:
1. Calculating the number of non-labour force participants in the precinct
2. Making assumptions regarding their ability and willingness to enter the workforce coupled with details of
their existing skills
Non-labour force participants can be split into the following categories:
► ►Underutilised persons: Covers those within the labour market that are not employed on a full-time basis
but possess the necessary skills and/or knowledge to transfer to the renewables industry.
► Unemployed persons: 49,954 people within this precincts labour force, representing a participation rate of
58.8%. There are 2,543 people unemployed within this precinct representing a 5.1% unemployment rate.
Our analysis makes the assumption that only 50% of unemployed people would be willing/ suitable to work
within this industry. They would most likely perform unskilled jobs given their level of education.
► Not in labour force: There are approximately 57,000 people over the age of 15 within the precinct that are
not in the labour force. Making a number of assumptions to account for those in retirement or undertaking
further study, we estimate that approximately 18,000 people aged 20 to 64 are not participating in the
labour market. Of those, it is assumed that 10% would be willing to join the labour force given the
additional opportunities provided by the emergence of this industry. These people would most likely perform
unskilled jobs given their level of education.
Based on this methodology, the potential labour force that could be available to the clean energy industry, based
on qualifications, is presented in Table 12. To illustrate how this table is to be interpreted, it can be seen below
that of those currently underutilised, we estimate the precinct has the capacity to supply 125 full time equivalent
technician and trade workers, representing 4% of the total available workforce.
Table 12: Summary of available labour for clean technology industry (FTE)
Occupation No of jobs %
Managers 20 1%
Professionals 231 7%
Technicians & trades workers 125 4%
Community & personal service workers 0 0%
Clerical & administrative workers 26 1%
The Climate Institute
Clean Energy Jobs in Regional NSW: A Roadmap for the NSW/ACT Border Region Ernst & Young 22You can also read
