CLARITY FUNDS MANAGEMENT - Global Equity Update Webinar WEBINAR - May 19 2021
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CLARITY FUNDS MANAGEMENT Global Equity Update Webinar WEBINAR – May 19 2021
Disclaimer Please note, This information is made available to NZ resident professional financial intermediaries and institutional investors only who are Wholesale Clients as currently defined by the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013. This information should not be shared or reproduced without the permission of the Manager/Presenter. This presentation is for information purposes only and contains summarised information. It does not take into account your investment needs or personal circumstances and so is not intended to be viewed as investment or financial advice. Should you require financial advice you should always speak to your Financial Adviser. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) for the fund/s mentioned in this presentation is available from Clarity Funds Management Limited (Clarity). Investors should read and understand the PDS for the relevant fund(s) in which they invest and satisfy themselves they understand all the terms and conditions of investment in the fund/s. The price, value and income derived from investments may fluctuate because values can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than originally invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Neither Clarity nor any related company of Clarity, guarantees any particular rate of return on, or the performance of, the Clarity Funds, nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from the Clarity Funds. Reference to taxation or the impact of taxation does not constitute tax advice. The levels and bases of taxation may change. Where an investment is denominated in a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may have adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. This presentation has been prepared from published information and other sources believed to be reliable, accurate and complete at the time of preparation. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Clarity, nor any person involved in this publication, accept any liability for any errors or omission.
Agenda Global Equity Update & Commentary Josh Barton, Managing Director, Relationship Manager and Head of Institutional Sales – MFS Australia and New Zealand Clarity Global Shares Fund Update Josh Wilson, CIO, Clarity Funds Management Q&A
Clarity Global Shares Fund
Webinar
19 May 2021
Josh Barton
Managing Director, Head of Institutional Sales,
Australia and New Zealand
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the speaker and are subject to change at
any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities
recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any other MFS investment
product. No forecasts can be guaranteed.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. 48517.2
Blended Research – Global Equity
Distinguishing characteristics
Seeks to deliver
Combines quantitative
strong risk-adjusted
and fundamental Systematically
performance across
research in a targets active risk
diverse market
disciplined process
environments
5
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Add quant v fundamental slide – page 5 in BRGE book
6
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.7 FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.
While Policy is Supportive, Focus on Inflation Expectations
and Quality
8
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.US Stimulus Plan Has Huge Impact on Growth Outlook
Cumulative and Incremental (since 2020) 2021 GDP Projection - Mar 2021 v Dec 2020
Fiscal Support
Forecast Mar 2021 Forecast Dec 2020
Fiscal support announced since December 2020
Cumulative fiscal support as of December 2020 China
14.00
US
12.00
10.00 UK
8.20
Percent of GDP
8.00
Canada
0.92
6.00
Euro
4.00 zone
1.17
5.90
4.89
2.00 Japan
2.95
0.00 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
United States Euro area Japan
Percentage change (YoY)
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database, national sources, OECD calculations. Left-hand chart: Fiscal support is measured as the change in net government lending as share of GDP. Data
reflects December 2020 OECD Economic Outlook projections and has been updated to reflect fiscal measures announced until February 2021. Calculations are based on December 2020
projections. Cumulative fiscal support is measured as the cumulative change in net government lending as share of GDP between 2019 and 2021. Fiscal support announced since December is
measured as share of 2020 GDP OECD Economic Outlook. Right-hand chart: Ordered by Mar 2021 project for 2021 GDP from high to low.
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Inflation Expectations on the Rise
Ten year breakeven yield
US UK Germany
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
10 Year Breakevens (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Bloomberg. Daily data as of 3 January 2000 to 31 March 2021. Earliest data available for Germany is 10 June 2009. Series show the yield difference between government bond yields and their
equivalent inflation-protected securities with the same maturity of 10 years.
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Signs of Speculative Excess
US Equity IPO - SPAC
Bitcoin price Total Deals Total Volume
300 100
$70,000 275 90
$60,000 250 80
Volume (USD Billions)
225
$50,000 70
# of Deals
200
BTC/USD spot
$40,000 175 60
150 50
$30,000 125 40
$20,000 100 30
75
$10,000 50 20
25 10
$- 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Retail trading activity
14,000
12,008
12,000
E-brokers average DARTs
10,000
8,000 6,489
6,000
4,000
2,4152,377
1,4631,5841,6481,817
2,000 1,0611,1071,1161,2561,1791,325
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Sources: Top-left: Bloomberg. Daily data as of 1 January 2017 to 31 March 2021. Top-right: Bloomberg. Annual data as of 2016 to 2020, with 2021* through 7 April 2021. Bottom-left chart: Goldman
Sachs. Annual data from 2008 to 2020. 2021 average consists of January and February 2021 figures (latest available). E-brokers include Ameritrade, Schwab, E-Trade, and Interactive Brokers.
“DARTs” = daily average revenue trades, which is a measure of retail trader activity. Bottom Right: FactSet. The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities
mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Bankruptcies Fell During The Great Lockdown
Preventing or delaying the inevitable?
The Great Lockdown, 2020 Global Financial Crisis, 2007–08 Other recessions
150
140
Bankruptcies, Indexed (last prerecession quarter = 100)
130
120
110
100
90 The Great Lockdown - counter
measures
80 ▪ Transfers to firms
▪ Credit guarantees
▪ Funding for lending
70
programs
60
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Recession quarter
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook January 2021 update. Note: Data are from 13 advanced economies with varying coverage. Lines are averages across recession types with quarter 0 the last
prerecession quarter. For The Great Lockdown, quarter 0 is the country-specific date of peak real GDP during 2007-08. Other recessions are country-specific.
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Market Rotation Continues
13
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Phases of the Crisis
Five phases of global equity performance during the pandemic
Pre-crisis Crisis Recovery Reappraisal Rotation
+22%
125
120
Cumulative performance (Index to 100)
115
110 +57%
105 +3%
100
95
-7%
90 +78%
85
80
75
70
65 -34%
Dec '19 Jan '20 Feb '20Mar '20 Apr '20 May Jun '20 Jul '20 Aug '20 Sep '20 Oct '20 Nov '20Dec '20 Jan '21 Feb '21Mar '21
'20
PRE-CRISIS CRISIS RECOVERY REAPPRAISAL ROTATION
1 Jan – 19 Feb 19 Feb – 23 Mar 23 Mar – 2 Sep 2 Sep – 2 Nov Since 2 Nov
▪ COVID-19 just a China ▪ Global pandemic and ▪ Unprecedented ▪ Uncertainty – 2nd ▪ Positive news on
problem lockdowns stimulus and partial wave concerns, hope vaccines, US election
reopening of vaccine, US election outcome more certain
▪ Continuation of 2019 ▪ Broad market sell-off ▪ Narrow market ▪ Broadening market ▪ Strong equity rally
rally
▪ Stock-specific news ▪ Cyclicals trashed ▪ Technology rally ▪ Pullback in technology ▪ Rotation into cyclicals
and from growth to
value
Source: FactSet, MSCI. Daily data as of 31 December 2019 to 31 March 2021. Total returns for the MSCI World index are net of foreign withholding taxes and in US dollars. Percentages show
returns from start to end of each phase – not cumulative returns since 31 December 2019. Chart rebased to 100 at the start of the analysis.
Since vaccine news, rotation into cyclicals has been rapid
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Market Rotation Continues in 2021
MSCI ACWI sector performance
First 10 months of 2020 Post-vaccine
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Technology 21% Energy 55%
Discretionary 18% Financials 39%
Comm. Svcs. 10% Materials 29%
Health Care 2% Industrials 28%
Materials 0% MSCI ACWI 23%
MSCI ACWI -1% Technology 23%
Staples -3% Comm. Svcs. 20%
Utilities -4% Real Estate 19%
Industrials -6% Discretionary 18%
Real Estate -16% Health Care 13%
Financials -23% Staples 11%
Energy -46% Utilities 9%
Source: FactSet, MSCI Global. Daily data as of 31 December 2019 to 31 March 2021 for the MSCI AC World Index (ACWI) and its sector indices. Total returns are net of foreign withholding taxes
and are in US dollars. “First 10 months of 2020” = 31 December 2019 to 30 October 2020. “Post-vaccine” = 31 October 2020 to 31 March 2021.
Cyclicals, high beta and low value stocks have led the rotation
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Earnings Revisions Support Cyclical Rotation
2021 EPS expectation change for MSCI World sector indices
Source: FactSet Market Aggregates. MSCI World sector indices. Series show the change in 2021 earnings expectations over the course of the timeframe.
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Where Are the Opportunities Now?
Defensive sectors lagged behind broader market
Source: FactSet. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for MSCI World Consumer Staples Index and MSCI World Health Care relative to MSCI World Index. Earnings are next-twelve-months (NTM).
Defensives are trading close to 10-year relative lows
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Valuations Matter in the Long-Run
Excess returns of trailing global equity P/E quintiles: long-run vs. recent
Long-term since 1995… First 10 Months of 2020 Post Vaccine to March 2021
15%
15% 15% 13.7%
10% 8.8%
10% 10%
7.0%
Excess returns
Excess returns
5% 3.9%
Excess returns
5% 5%
2.2%
1.3%
0.1%
0% 0%
0%
-0.4%
-1.3%
-2.2% -1.5%
-5% -5%
-5%
-5.6% -5.9%
-6.1%
-10% -10%
-10%
-15% -11.8%
-15% -15%
Source: Style Analytics. Data as of 31 March 2021. “Post Vaccine to March 2021” = 31 October 2020 to 31 March 2021. “First 10 months of 2020” = 31 December 2019 to 31 October 2020. “Long-
term since 1995 (Annualized)” = 31 January 1995 to 31 March 2021. Returns are cumulative unless otherwise stated. The exhibit above is intended to illustrate factor performance trends in the
market, and not intended to represent factor performance in MFS’ quantitative models or investment portfolios. The style performance data are hypothetical returns calculated by Style Analytics based
on stock returns within a global equity universe. The universe consists of approximately 2,800 of the largest global equity stocks, including both developed and emerging markets, based on equal-
weighting each stock at each month-end. For the factor, in this case earnings yield (E/P), stocks with available factor value data are sorted by their factor value within each country and GICS sector,
and then grouped into equal-weighted quintiles at the end of each month. The earnings yield factor is defined as annual earnings (adjusted for amortizations of intangibles, extraordinary charges and
credits) per share divided by the share price. This factor measures the worth of a company’s shares according to the company’s ability to support each share with after tax earnings. The universe is
reconstructed and returns are calculated each month, and the monthly returns are linked geometrically into cumulative returns. The returns of the hypothetical factor quintile portfolios are displayed in
the exhibit. While the data are based on sources believed to be reliable, MFS does not represent that it is accurate or complete and should not be relied on as such or be the basis for an investment
decision. As discussed, the factor analyzed for the exhibit is earnings yield (E/P) – which is the simple inverse of price-to-earnings (P/E), which are more commonly used to discuss company
valuations. Above, we label the quintiles as P/E for ease of recognition.
After a period where valuation seemingly didn’t matter, it is an important driver of stocks once again
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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.ESG Update
19
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Sustainable Investing Framework
Collaboration across departments and functions
ESG Strategy & Governance Fundamental Research
Multiple working groups and committees Detailed, bottom-up research of
to ensure integration by all investors materiality based on company,
industry & geographic factors
ESG Integration
Stewardship enables responsible Thematic Research
Using voting and engagement to reduce value creation Proprietary insights on emerging
risk and influence governance & ESG themes that impact multiple
business practices sectors and regions
Risk Management ESG Data
Deep awareness of ESG risks at Data from multiple vendors and
individual company & portfolio levels specialists; accessible to all investors
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.
2
44174.6
0Fundamental Research
Financially material ESG issues are integrated into modeling, valuation, and portfolio decisions
Income &
Renewable Plastic Bribery &
Wealth
Inputs Waste Corruption
Inequality
Industry IT Services Chemicals Packaging Mining
Adjusted base case A high proportion Risks related to Research regarding
and downside of inputs from plastic waste has frontier market
Modeling/ scenarios; Invested renewable (i.e. non- led to pass rating acquisition led to
Valuation in company with petroleum sources) on firm tied to engagement with
mgmt. team most have driven buy commodity plastics mgmt. team and
Decision focused on ratings and & trims to specialty board; team sold
“localization” ownership by plastics companies security due to
multiple PMs corruption risk
US “localization” Focus on renewable Societal focus on Company
spreading to other inputs has led to plastic packaging announced bribery
Outcome markets, margins strong demand & driving consumer & investigation & has
being impacted stock performance regulatory impacts underperformed
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.
2
44174.6
1Thematic Research
ESG in Depth: Modern Slavery and Forced Labor
Problem Key takeaways for integration
• Modern slavery is a horrific and shockingly pervasive fact of ▪ Assess which companies are likely to be engaged in activities or
life in today's world. The 2018 Global Slavery Index estimated industries that commonly face modern slavery issues.
that more than 40 million people are involved in various forms
of modern slavery. ▪ Evaluate the sustainability reports and corporate policies of
potentially impacted companies to understand the strength of
Development their efforts to eradicate modern slavery from their operations
▪ Companies in numerous industries have experienced modern and supply chains.
slavery issues in their operations and supply chains and
▪ Consider the views of organizations that are experts in this area,
regulation is on the rise to try and combat it.
such as Know the Chain.
Materiality
▪ Engage with company management teams about these risk and
▪ Risks related to modern slavery are increasing due to the their efforts to combat modern slavery.
regulatory activity and increasing consumer and investor
awareness.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Global Slavery Index 2018, HowMuch.net. Please keep in mind that a sustainable investing approach does not guarantee positive results.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. 22ESG in action: Schneider Electric
Company offers solutions to support the transition to a more electric, digital and
decarbonized environment
Environmental Issues:
▪ More than 80% of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission occurs due to energy consumption.
▪ 60% of the current fossil-based end to end energy system is lost.
▪ Buildings are the largest consuming sector of Energy and second largest emitter of CO2.
▪ Company estimates that 30% of energy used in buildings is wasted due to inefficient management systems.
Solutions:
▪ Electrification: Electricity is 2x more efficient vs. other sources (building heat, road transport).
▪ De-carbonization: 6% to 40% of electricity capacity from renewable sources (wind/solar).
▪ Digitization: Digitally enabled management systems, analytics and services.
The Potential:
▪ 50% of global CO2 emissions could be eliminated by 2040 if digitally enabled energy saving measures were
implemented in just half of the existing commercial buildings in tandem with existing global electrification and de-
carbonization initiatives.
Customer Benefits
Energy Efficiency Productivity Reliability Safety Sustainability
• Up to 85% • Up to 60% • Up to 50% • Up to 25% • Up to 50%
(average 24%) (average 30%) (average 22%) (average 20%) (average 20%)
energy capital equipment workforce CO2 footprint
consumption expenditure availability safety reduction
savings reduction increase improvements
This example is intended solely to illustrate MFS’ research process and is not intended as a recommendation. It does not necessarily reflect MFS’ current views. The securities and/or
sectors mentioned in this example should not be viewed as advice, or as a trade indication. Source: Schneider Electric, International Energy Association, as of December 2019. Please keep in
mind that a sustainable investing approach does not guarantee positive results.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. 2324 FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.
Unless otherwise indicated, logos and product and service names are trademarks of MFS® and its affiliates and may be registered in certain countries.
The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) was developed by and/or is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. and S&P Global Market Intelligence Inc. ("S&P
Global Market Intelligence"). GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P Global Market Intelligence and has been licensed for use by MFS.
Index data source: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data
contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved,
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the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
This material is directed at investment professionals for general information use only with no consideration given to the specific investment objective, financial situation
and particular needs of any specific person. Any securities and/or sectors mentioned herein are for illustration purposes and should not be construed as a
recommendation for investment. Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The information contained herein may not be copied,
reproduced or redistributed without the express consent of MFS Investment Management (“MFS”). While the information is believed to be accurate, it may be subject to
change without notice. MFS does not warrant or represent that it is free from errors or omissions or that the information is suitable for any particular person’s intended
use. Except in so far as any liability under any law cannot be excluded, MFS does not accept liability for any inaccuracy or for the investment decisions or any other
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Unless otherwise indicated, logos, product and services names are trademarks of MFS and its affiliates and may be registered in certain countries.
25
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.Agenda Global Equity Update & Commentary Josh Barton, Managing Director, Relationship Manager and Head of Institutional Sales – MFS Australia and New Zealand Clarity Global Shares Fund Update Josh Wilson, CIO, Clarity Funds Management Q&A
Clarity Global Shares Fund
Key Fund Statistics (as at 31 March 2021)
Fundamentals
Portfolio Benchmark^
(weighted average)
Price/Earnings1 15.8X 20.0X
PEG ratio 1.7X 2.1X
Dividend Yield 2.0% 1.7%
Market Capitalisation2 464.8bn 433.5bn
Number of holdings 136 2,950
Tracking Error3 2.52%
Active share 77%
^MSCI AC World ex Tobacco Index 50% hedged to NZD
112 month forward ex-negative earnings
2 Weighted average
3 Barra predicted tracking error. Source: BarraClarity Global Shares Fund
Performance
To 30 April 2021 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 3 Years Since
Inception pa
(April 2017)
Fund (net) 12.8% 26.4% 33.1% 11.0% 11.1%
Benchmark 10.0% 22.2% 33.1% 12.8% 12.7%
Fund Size $NZ 105.1m1
To Sept 30 2020 1 Month 3 Months 12 Months 3 Years Since
Inception pa
(April 2017)
Fund (net) -2.0% 3.9% -0.5% 5.5% 6.3%
Benchmark -1.9% 6.0% 6.2% 8.9% 9.2%
Fund Size $NZ 77.1m
1Asat 30/4/21
The Fund’s return is after deduction for fees/charges and before tax. The benchmark returns reflect no deductions for charges and tax. The benchmark is the MSCI
AC World ex Tobacco Index 50% hedged to NZD. Inception date was 26/4/17. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.Most years, growth and value styles don’t differ much
Histogram of annual Value vs Growth performance difference (since 1974)
14
12
More than half the time the
divergence is less than 3%
10
8
6
4
2
0
20%
MSCI All Country World Value vs MSCI All Country World Growth.
Source: Bloomberg, Clarity calculationsClarity Global Shares Fund Summary
Key Features
Actively managed and diversified global equity 80 – 120 stock holdings; holdings may differ
strategy significantly from underlying benchmark index
In partnership with leading global equity manager MFS, a US based global asset manager
Responsible investment approach ESG integration; excludes controversial weapons &
tobacco
Focus to exceed the return of broader global equity Benchmarked to the MSCI All Country World ex-
markets (benchmark) over medium term (at least 5 tobacco Index, 50% hedged to NZD1
years) net of fees and expenses
Competitive pricing Management Fee – 0.66% p.a.
Admin charges and expenses – 0.40% p.a.2
Designed for NZ investors PIE structure, 50% NZD hedged
Unique investment approach (combines quantitative Potential for strong risk-adjusted results across
and qualitative research) changing market environments
Track record of adding value The underlying strategy has a 5 year plus track record
of adding value
1MSCI All Country World ex-Tobacco (net dividends reinvested), measured in NZ dollars 50% hedged to NZ dollar.
2Please refer to the PDS for Clarity Funds Management (dated 25 January 2021) for full details on fees. The fees stated above were charged in the
year ending 31 March 2021.Agenda Global Equity Update & Commentary Josh Barton, Managing Director, Relationship Manager and Head of Institutional Sales – MFS Australia and New Zealand Clarity Global Shares Fund Update Josh Wilson, CIO, Clarity Funds Management Q&A
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