2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION - 26 SEPTEMBER 2019 - Ethos Capital
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Market conditions, cost pressures and uncertainty provide a tough investment backdrop! Key drivers impacting top-line performance… Key cost of sales drivers… Petrol price Quarterly GDP growth (%) Fund VI Fund VI 1900 Impact of key market drivers 8.0 MM Fund Price (95ul; coastal; c/l) 1700 MM Fund 6.0 1500 2011 - 2018 1300 4.0 CAGR: 1100 Quarterly growth (%) 2.0 900 6.2% 0.0 700 500 -2.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -4.0 Electricity price Fund VI -6.0 82.5 90.0 81.8 75.4 Average price c/kWh sold -8.0 67.6 70.0 62.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 58.5 2011 - 2018 50.3 CAGR: 50.0 42.2 MM Fund Annual GDP per capita (ZAR) 25.0 31.9 10.0% Fund VI 30.0 17.0 18.1 19.6 56,500 10.0 56,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 55,500 Foreign Exchange Rate 55,000 16.0 Fund VI 54,500 14.0 54,000 Average USDZAR MM Fund 53,500 12.0 2011 - 2018 CAGR: 10.0 53,000 MM Fund 9.0% 52,500 8.0 52,000 6.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2
The difficult operating environment has lent itself to opportunities across the funds Large Equity • Fund VI finished investing phase and commenced exit phase – two exits Kevro and Eaton • Intensive focus on portfolio companies with strong traction in restructurings and cost reductions Update on a fund by fund basis • Fund VII in investment phase – two deals Channel Vas and Echo – strong pipeline of opportunities ZAR2.6 billion • Focus on key investment themes and deep value opportunities with cyclical upside Invested ZAR2.1bn in new investments Mid Market ZAR500m in follow on capital • MMF is 65% invested and the team’s focus is on maximising outcomes in the portfolio • Promising signs across the mid-market equity assets (Echo, Gammatek, Synerlytic, Kevro) Autozone, Twinsaver and Eazi Access remain under pressure • Very significant SA focussed investment pipeline – can afford to be selective Mezzanine • Strong pipeline of opportunities in East African structured equity growth capital • Negotiations on two transactions nearing completion ZAR2.9 billion • Chibuku had a challenging year operationally given weather conditions and other exogenous Raised issues in Malawi ZAR2bn for Fund VII R254m for EMP3 R640m for Ai Fund I Ai • Strong traction in fund raising • Differentiated value add impact on Channel Vas and Vertice • Investment in Tyme Bank • Strong pipeline of opportunities 3
Highlights of the operating results # of Portfolio Companies NAV per Share Growth in NAV per share Key performance metrics 19 R11.34 3% EV / EBITDA Capital Invested Capital Invested (Actual) (Proforma) 6.9x R1.43bn R1.58bn Net Debt / EBITDA Total Assets Proforma invested capital (Actual) (as % of Total Assets) 1.9x R1.93bn 82% 4
Introduction Portfolio overview CONTENTS Valuation overview Liquidity analysis Outlook 5
Portfolio overview and value contribution Exposure to 19 portfolio companies across various sectors and vintages Invested Capital by sector / geography 3% 15% 4% 30% 10% Portfolio overview 12% 26% Banking Consumer goods FinTech Industrials Media MedTech Telco services 40% 60% South Africa Sub Saharan Africa 6
Fund investments in 2019 Significant investment in the past 12 months across six new portfolio companies 867 712 Net new investments 7
Net asset value contribution and “age” of the investment portfolio 18% Assets owned for more than one year 46% Portfolio composition Assets owned for less than one year 36% Cash Assets < 1yr Assets > 1 yr 8
Successful exit of Eaton Towers Investment / Exit date: June 2015 / October 2019 Ethos consortium ownership: 14.4% Business: Telecommunications Fund VI Invested Capital: R405m Portfolio company overview Ethos Fund VI ownership: 4.8% Gross returns (ZAR): 2.4x TMB / 23.4% IRR Pan-regional presence Eaton Towers is a leading independent pan-African tower company with over 5,000 tower sites across five countries 5 Presence across Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, Burkina Faso and Niger Blue chip customer base Key investment themes A++ Airtel Africa, MTN, Orange, Vodafone and Safaricom, amongst others Balanced portfolio exposure 50% EBITDA margin increased from 30% to >50% over life of investment 9
Channel VAS update Date of investment October 2018 % of EC Invested Capital 26% Total Ethos ownership 17.5% (increasing to 20%) % of EC NAV 21% % of Ethos LTM change Capital NAV: in NAV: EC Invested Capital R372m Current valuation R408m (1.14x TMB) 21% +R53m Portfolio company overview LTM Return +R53m (14%) Dividends received, valuation largely unchanged Channel VAS provides Airtime Credit Services and Mobile Financial Global presence Services to prepaid mobile subscribers through MNOs Presence across 4 continents and >25 countries Key investment themes >25 (most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa) – six new deployments since May 2018 Accessible customer base 650m Access to +650m mobile subscribers Financial Increasingly Rising Ai and hyper Daily advances Inclusion +$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 +$5m connected consumer decision- populations spending making million transactions per day (US$799m advanced YTD vs US$566m in 2018) Default rates 1.7 billion adults remain unbanked * 20% Y-o-Y LfL EBITDA growth LTM June 2019 10
Kevro update Date of investment October 2017 % of EC Invested Capital: 13% Total Ethos ownership 27.6% % of EC NAV: 11% % of Ethos LTM change EC Invested Capital R185m Current valuation: R202m (1.10x TMB) Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return +R9m (5%) Multiple unchanged, gearing benefit 11% +R9m KEY HIGHLIGHTS Weak economic environment adversely impacted end customers Service level challenges, recent improvements point to greenshoots ✓ Relatively strong financial performance in a difficult market, focus on new product strategies to drive growth ✓ COO appointed ✓ Full strategy review & operating model re-assessment completed ✓ Operational projects to improve service levels and enhance efficiencies o New Warehouse and IT systems ✓ All the above projects to be funded by internally generated cashflows ✓ Delivered 1st B-BBEE rating in FY2018. This year rating was enhanced the business achieved a Level 4 rating Constructing New Warehouse Facility ERP & WMS System “1 Box” Integrate Ops & Systems - Increased pallet locations - Enhance inventory management - Warehousing, picking mezz & branding - Improve quality of BI in support of Allows Kevro to consolidate into one site; decision-making processes expected to drive efficiencies 11
Primedia update Date of investment December 2017 % of EC Invested Capital: 12% (including SKT) Total Ethos ownership 19.9% + 5.0% (EC) % of EC NAV: 10% (including SKT) % of Ethos LTM change EC capital investment R172m Current valuation: R194m (1.13x TMB) Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return +R6m Primedia largely flat, SKT value increase 10% +R6m KEY HIGHLIGHTS Weak advertising market (industry radio and outdoor advertising spend both down YoY) Most corporate advertising budgets have been cut Lower occupancy in static billboards offset to some extent by the performance of digital billboards ✓ Relatively strong financial performance given difficult operating conditions ✓ Market share gains in broadcasting limited the revenue decline ✓ Significant investment (LTM and going forward) in digital billboards ✓ Sold SK Entertainment (proceeds used to repay debt) ✓ Unbundled SK Theatres (movies business) to shareholders, new Chairman, CEO and CFO ✓ Strategic review and operating model changes in SKT resulted in significant improvement in YoY profitability Strategic re-focus Market share Sold SKE and unbundled SKT to create a Growth in radio market share in broadcasting focussed broadcasting and outdoor was a significant positive in 2019 advertising business Digitization of Outdoor billboards Capital expenditure in digitising billboards and creating “new age” solutions for advertisers showing good momentum 12
Echo update Date of investment February 2018 % of EC Invested Capital: 11% Total Ethos ownership 31% (inc. to >65%) % of EC NAV: 9% % of Ethos LTM change EC Invested Capital R26m (+R152m) Current valuation: R28m (1.07x TMB) Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return +R2m (+7%) Effectively held at cost of investment 9% +R2m KEY HIGHLIGHTS Delayed implementation of Gondwana acquisition primarily due to regulatory challenges – likely to close in October 2019 ✓ Strong growth year on year with increased market share ✓ Appointed Group CFO and Head of Product Innovation ✓ Business successfully delivered its 1st B-BBEE rating under the ICT Codes and obtained a level 4 rating ✓ Investment in new sales force - strong momentum in delivering against sales targets (87% of target achieved in 6 months) ✓ Strategic review and operational model assessment project being scoped and will be completed by end January 2020 ✓ Strong acquisition targets pipeline: – Zambia – Kenya SSA presence Market opportunity The B2B service market is 9 Countries $9.9bn growing faster than any other segment of ICT in SSA Growth in FTTX connections Growth in Africa’s data consumption SSA severely underserved outside x3 SA; FTTX connections projected to +42 % CAGR to 2021 grow three-fold to 2020 13
Synerlytic update Date of investment April 2019 % of EC Invested Capital: 7% Total Ethos ownership 93.4% % of EC NAV: 5% % of Ethos LTM change EC Invested Capital R92m Current valuation: R105m (1.14x TMB) Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return +R13m (14%) Multiple unchanged, EBITDA growth (head office savings) 5% R13m SSA & MEI presence Ai capabilities Already processing 5% of samples 13 Countries using recently developed algorithms Pakistan UAE India Healthy M&A pipeline across Significant barriers to entry Ghana DRC various geographies Ivory Coast Holds globally applicable 1x acquisition completed, Zambia accreditations additional opportunities being assessed Angola Botswana Zimbabwe Namibia Mozambique South Africa Synerlytic Lab footprint Agent labs 14
Gammatek update Date of investment September 2018 % of EC Invested Capital: 6% Total Ethos ownership 51.0% % of EC NAV: 5% % of Ethos LTM change EC capital investment R98m Current valuation: R98m (1.0x TMB) Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return R0m Held at cost of investment 5% - KEY HIGHLIGHTS Weak consumer environment, post-paid up-trade cycle getting longer Geopolitical impacts (Huawei volume sell through impacted by US-China trade war) ✓ Relatively strong financial performance given difficult operating conditions ✓ Finalising appointment of CFO ✓ Appointed Independent Non-Executive Chairman ✓ Business successfully delivered its 1st B-BBEE rating under the ICT Codes and obtained a level 4 rating ✓ Increasing the proportion of exclusive customers to total customers ✓ In-store incentive app launched to leverage capacity of non-Gammatek staff ✓ Strategic review and operational model assessment project underway New channels targeted Poised to increase market share Assessing bolt-on acquisitions to Key competitor recently filed for business diversify channel and products rescue beyond the core (e.g. Audio) Geographic expansion options Exploring market entry strategies for East Africa and models to supply into other international markets 15
Vertice update Date of investment May 2018 % of EC Invested Capital: 4% Total Ethos ownership >75% % of EC NAV: 3% % of Ethos LTM change EC Invested Capital R58m Current valuation: R61m (1.05x TMB) Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return +R3m (+5%) Effectively held at cost of investment 3% +R3m KEY HIGHLIGHTS ✓ Strong growth year on year through increased market share, new products and acquisition-led growth ✓ Appointed new CEO with strong technology background ✓ Strong Ai potential both in terms of new business growth but also product utilisation and differentiation ✓ Strong acquisition pipeline with new acquisition opportunities well CARDIO- WOUND ORTHO SURGERY NEUROLOGY BLOOD DISEASE DIAGNOSTIC advanced VASCULAR CARE SOLUTIONS ✓ Significant investment in IT systems to facilitate platform consolidation and roll out ✓ Potential for ex-South Africa growth is significant Established Biotech Technology AI and Data uniquely Infotech platform Science skilled convergence and scale distribution 16
MTN Zakhele Futhi update Date of investment July 2017 % of EC Invested Capital: 3% Total Ethos ownership 4.1% % of EC NAV: 2% EC Invested Capital R43m Current valuation: R41m (0.96x TMB) % of Ethos LTM change Capital NAV: in NAV: Portfolio company overview LTM Return -R2m (-2%) Marked to market off MTN share price 2% -R2m KEY HIGHLIGHTS • New management team in place • “BRIGHT” Strategy fully adopted and being implemented Strategic Initiatives on course: Share price lagging strong operation performance Business remains susceptible to external policy, regulatory shocks ✓ Travelstart exited and Jumia listed on NYSE ✓ Mascom exit in progress (subject to regulatory approvals), MTN Cyprus (exited) and MTN Ghana Listed. ✓ MTN Nigeria Listed. Move to underpin stability with regulators and other local authorities ✓ Governance enhanced with establishment of senior advisory council and re-instatement of in-country VP’s across the footprint ✓ Options being explored re Tower assets (could unlock c. R20bn for MTN) 12 month share price analysis 120 100 80 c.50% INCREASE IN 60 SHARE PRICE 17
Tyme Bank Date of investment June 2019 % of EC Invested Capital: 3% Total Ethos ownership 8% % of EC NAV: 2% % of Ethos LTM change Capital NAV: in NAV: EC Invested Capital R46m Current valuation: R46m (1.0x TMB) 2% - Portfolio company overview LTM Return R0m Held at cost of investment Proven acquisition model >770,000 customers signed up since launch in 770k November 2018 Large distribution footprint Financial inclusion 50%+ Smartphone Disruptive AI and hyper decision- 14k Kiosks in 700+ stores with Tyme ambassadors, and access to cash at 14,000+ till points technology use in SA making Compelling low cost proposition 80% of customers underserved* Highly attractive South African banking sector R32 Half the cost of lowest cost banking competitor Behavioural products ✓ Products designed using behavioural economics - Unique and exclusive distribution platform through Pick n Pay and Boxer stores promoting responsible and inclusive access to with proprietary access to rich consumer data banking - Industry leading, low cost operational platform - Established and operational cloud-based technology platform operating at scale Attractive financial dynamics 25% - Reputable, experienced team with ability to scale the platform globally Technology and business model designed to attain industry leading cost-to income ratio * FinScope South Africa 2015, 2016 and 2017 consumer surveys. “Adequately served” defined as individuals having a balanced portfolio of products that are suited specifically to their financial wants and needs 18 18
Performance of selected portfolio companies AUTOMOTIVE PARTS RETAILER & FMCG INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT WHOLESALER Portfolio company overview Date of investment Dec 2016 Dec 2016 Dec 2016 % of Ethos Capital NAV 2% 4% 2% Current value R40m (-R46m YoY) R74m (-R9m YoY) R34m (-R12m YoY) LTM Return / TMB -54% / 0.51x -11% / 0.89x -26% / 0.64x Consumer sector Consumer sector Construction sector USD:ZAR USD:ZAR Eskom: long-term contracts ending NON CONTROLLABLES (INDUSTRY) Pulp price (global commodity) Poor category planning and inventory Significant operational inefficiencies Over-capacitation CONTROLLABLES management o Strategic review and reset o Strategic review and reset o Strategic review and reset o C-suite capacitation o New CEO o New CEO o Cost savings (R64m - closure of non performing o C-suite capacitation o C-suite capacitation ETHOS FOCUS OVER LTM stores) o Cost savings (R53m – operational efficiency) o Cost savings (R39m – S189 & cost controls) o Debt restructure o Debt restructure o Debt restructure ✓ Recovery plan in place with significant budgeted ✓ Significant traction on improving OEEs; ✓ Successfully diversifying away from y-o-y growth in EBITDA driven by rationalisation saleable volumes ahead of budget construction; Good growth in new industry of store footprint, leadership augmentation and ✓ Positive momentum in run rate verticals; construction = 54% of revenue at CURRENT OUTLOOK enhanced inventory management acquisition vs. 45% currently 19
Investment Strategy – backing key investment trends Key themes Recent investments Most likely sectors LSM migration-led growth in consumer goods Key investment trends Retail Growing connectivity and data access Convenience FMCG Manufacturing Lowest cost-to-serve, scalable businesses Logistics Financial Services Business Services High impact, differentiated services ICT Telecommunication Services Technology-driven disruption to Technology Enablers “business as usual” Medtech Transportable business models scaling across countries 20
Introduction Portfolio overview CONTENTS Valuation overview Liquidity analysis Outlook 21
Portfolio composition and valuation metrics Portfolio composition Key valuation metrics NAV discount 8.0x 31.3% % of NAVPS % of NAVPS 31% 6.9x 7.0x 31.2% Portfolio Composition 80% 88% 6.0x 31.2% 9.06 10.03 31% 5.0x 31.1% NAV 4.0x 31.1% 11.34 31% 3.0x 31.0% 7.80 1.9x 2.0x 31.0% 1.0x 30.9% 2.28 1.31 - 30.9% 30 Jun 19 Adjusted 30 Jun 19 EV / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA Discount to NAV Discount to peer group Cash Invested Capital Share price * Share price as at 30 June, 2019 2222
Market implied valuation analysis Portfolio valued at a 31% discount to the peer group... .....market “look-through” values portfolio at 4.8x EV / EBITDA 6.9x 100 2.28 1.9x NAV BASED VALUATION Valuation over view 31% 11.34 69 9.06 5.0x 31% NAV Cash Invested NAV Valuation 48 4.8x SHARE BASED VALUATION* 2.28 1.9x 7.80 5.52 2.9x Peer group Ethos portfolio Implied market company company company valuations valuations valuations NAV Cash Invested NAV Valuation * Share price as at 30 June, 2019 23
Growth rates and market implied EV / LTM EBITDA multiples of the portfolio Sales growth by company Net debt / EBITDA by company 3 3 Portfolio company performance 4 3 8 2 6 4 477 443 393 291 296 270 269 201 1 40 0% - 5% - 15% 0x - 1.5x - 3x - 4.5x Value - R'm Number Value - R'm Number EBITDA growth by company Market implied EV / EBITDA by company 6 6 3 527 851 5 465 3 5 4 175 297 173 2 137 55 -10% - 0% - 15% 4.5x - 5.5x - 6.5x Value - R'm Number Value - R'm Number 24
Portfolio company returns 4.0 1.6 5.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.0 0.9 1.9 6.9 4.3 4.3 3.4 4.5 Portfolio company performance Positive value contribution 1.71x 1.54x 1.38x New assets at cost Negative value contribution 1.15x 1.14x 1.14x 1.11x 1.10x 1.08x 1.07x 1.05x 1.00x 1.00x 0.96x 0.92x 0.89x 0.73x 0.64x 0.51x Eaton Ster RTT Chibuku Channel Synerlytic Bevco Kevro Primedia Echotel Vertice TymeBank Gammatek MTN Waco Twinsaver Neopak Eazi Autozone Kinekor Vas Fund VI Mid Market Fund Mezzanine Fund Direct investment/Ai Age of investment in years 25
Introduction Portfolio overview CONTENTS Valuation overview Liquidity analysis Outlook 26
Fund commitments and levels of undrawn capital by Fund 141 950 48 250 1,250 150 371 3,161 6 1 12 Current Fund commitments 360 54 1,531 887 211 EF VI EMMF I EHP EMP 3 EF VII EaiF I Direct Investments Total Invested/Committed Undrawn commitments Ethos Capital commitment to underlying fund (Rm) 27
Ethos Capital liquidity benchmarked against international peers Total commitment ratio = (Invested Capital + Undrawn Commitments) / Net Asset Value Relative liquidity benchmarks 173% 163% 139% 125% 126% 109% Harbourvest Hg APAX Princess Pantheon Ethos Capital Commitment coverage ratio = (Cash + Unutilised Debt Facilities) / Undrawn Commitments 63% 59% 58% 48% 50% 44% Harbourvest Hg APAX Princess Pantheon Ethos Capital 28
Liquidity profile analysis based on current commitments Realisations Existing outflows Available liquidity 3,000 308 12% 3,000 Available liquidity and outlook 32% 19% Estimated 2,500 outflows 2,500 by year 2,143 1,452 19% 19% 2,000 2,000 1,514 3,161 1,500 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 1,500 2,853 493 1,000 1,000 500 537 500 365 500 293 69 339 - - (500) (500) Total Fees adj Net Invested Current cash Debt facility Treasury Commitment FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 commitments commitments capital shares gap * Available liquidity = Cash plus Debt Facility less Net Investment outflows / Realisation inflows 29
Relative share price to NAV discount South African listed PE firms trade at 2x the discount of international peers 55% 45% Average = 36% 35% 2x 25% Average = 18% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% Discount to NAV 3 Year NAV Growth -35% 30
Introduction Portfolio overview CONTENTS Valuation overview Liquidity analysis Outlook 31
Outlook Unlikely to be any short term improvement in business confidence and corporate investment Outside of South Africa, growth remains strong although currency and political risks remain elevated Outlook Growth in NAV likely to increase as the portfolio is c.80% invested Investment pipeline remains strong but given the market conditions and lack of competition, focus remains on being extremely selective on deals Liquidity management remains a key focus but Board remains focused on ways to enhance shareholder value Board continues to assess strategic options that could unlock value for shareholders 32
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