CHINA'S AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET - November 2019 NEW CONDITIONS PROVIDE FUEL FOR RAPID GROWTH - China's Automotive Aftermarket 2
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CHINA’S AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET NEW CONDITIONS PROVIDE FUEL FOR RAPID GROWTH November 2019 Build · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business Consulting
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
RISING CAR AGE BRINGS STEADILY GROWING AFTERMARKET VALUE IN CHINA
• As a consequence of new car sales con�nuing to slow, the average age of passenger vehicles in China is projected to hit 5.5 years by
2023, compared with 4.6 years in 2018
• China automotive aftermarket is expected to grow steadily at ~8% p.a. in next 5 years, reaching 1.93 trillion CNY in 2023
• The propor�on of repair & accident parts in the aftermarket is expected to grow gradually, owing to rising average car age
DIVERSIFIED, DIGITALISED, STANDARDISED MARKET STRUCTURE
• A diversified, digitalised and standardised a�ermarket is being formed, owing to top-down government interven�on and growing needs from end
consumers
• From an end-channel perspec�ve, IAM (independent a�ermarket) will overtake 4S stores within the next 5 years, with branded workshops / O2O
service being a significant growth driver (~35% CAGR from 2018-2023)
• High-level digitalisation and standardisation in a�ermarket are on the way, with poten�al to further op�mise distribu�on efficiency and enhance
service quality
• O2O pla�orms are being widely adopted by consumers, especially for consumable/ wearable parts
• B2B2C is an emerging business model, with the involvement of internet giants
2 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · Grow
1. CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW
2. DIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERS
3. IMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)
4. ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTING
Build · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business Consulting
AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW
China’s new car sales are expected to further slow; with average car age rising,
the after-sales auto business is transi�oning into a major revenue source
PV (passenger vehicle) sales volume (2018-23F) PV popula�on and car age distribu�on (2018-23F)
Unit: million vehicles Unit: billion vehicles
Average car
CAGR 6% age 4.4 4.6 5.5
CAGR -1%
23.6 0.26
22.6
19.8
0.19 35% < 3 years
11.7 9.7
Sedan 11.6 49%
26% 4-6 years
0.11
10.5 47%
10.1 26%
SUV 6.1 30% 7-10 years
30%
MPV 20%
2.1 1.8 2.4 18% 5% 9% >10 years
6%
2015 2018 2023F 2015 2018 2023F
4 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Yiche; CAAM; CPCA; Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis
Note: Due to rounding, percentages may not always appear to add up to 100% Build · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business Consulting
AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW
China’s after-sales market will grow steadily, with the repair and maintenance
segment reaching CNY ~1 trillion by 2023; contribu�on of repair & accident parts
is expected to grow gradually owing to rising average car age
Market value of China’s automo�ve aftermarket (PV, 2018-23F) Parts repair & maintenance market value breakdown
Unit: CNY trillion by parts type, 2018
Other a�ermarket services 100% = CNY 0.77 trillion
Parts repair &
(e.g. 2nd-hand car, insurance & loan, maintenance services Consumable parts (e.g. lube and filter)
ba�ery recycling, car beau�fica�on) Wearable parts (e.g. tire and storage ba�ery)
2018
0.52 0.77 Repair parts (e.g. engine and generator components)
1.29
Accident parts (e.g. lights, door and bumper bars)
2019F
0.13
2020F
0.16 24% 26%
2021F 0.17
2022F 0.19
16%
2023F 0.93 1 1.93 34%
5 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Tuhu X Tencent a�ermarket whitepaper; Mob Research Ins�tute; Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · Grow
Ipsos Business Consulting
KEY TRENDS INTERPRETATION
A diversified, digitalised and standardised aftermarket is being formed, owing to
top-down government interven�on and growing needs from end consumers
PV parts repair & maintenance market value split by channel
IAM to grab market share from OES Unit: CNY trillion vehicles
• “Maintenance Management Regula�on” was
implemented in 2016 to en�tle car owners taking 1.03 CAGR
maintenance/ repair service freely in IAM within the
warranty period
0.77 43% 23%
• IAM business will grow along with rising average car
age, given that lower prices drive consumer
preference for IAM when out of warranty 4S store 50%
17% 35%
Branded workshop/ O2O 5%
Independent workshop 45% 40% 3%
2018 2023F
6 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
KEY TRENDS INTERPRETATION
A diversified, digitalised and standardised aftermarket is being formed, owing to
top-down government interven�on and growing needs from end consumers
B2B & B2C e-commerce lead to digitalised and Increasing transparency will improve market
more efficient IAM standardisa�on
• All the 4S stores/ workshops have been required to upload
• In addi�on to aftermarket specialists (Tuhu, Carzone), their service records to a nationwide database since 2017,
internet giants (e.g. Alibaba, JD) are also stepping into the in an effort to reduce over-maintenance/ fraud (this
auto aftermarket ini�a�ve is s�ll in a nascent stage)
• Workshops show strong demand for be�er procurement/ • All parts manufacturers have been required to print ‘product
logis�c services to survive codes’ on spare parts since 2015, enabling accountability
• Those born from 1980-1999 account for 50% of all a�er- tracing after accidents, and weakening the competitiveness
market customers, and have a high preference for O2O* of counterfeit parts
7 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Note: *O2O model refers to ‘placing orders online and taking repair/maintenance service in an appointed offline store’
Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
KEY TRENDS INTERPRETATION
Parts suppliers should increase investment in IAM, and cooperate with / leverage
diversified channel players to seize growth opportunities
IAM
• IAM channels should be a strategic priority, and deserve more effort and investment from auto
suppliers to seize opportunities and fulfill evolving consumer demands
Regula�ons
• Regulation-enabled market standardisa�onis s�ll on the way. More interven�on from government
is expected to further protect consumer interests and create a fairer market environment for OE/
will-fit parts suppliers
B2B/B2C/O2O E-commerce
• The penetra�on of B2B/B2C e-commerce platforms will accelerate
• Coopera�on with B2B e-commerce platforms are a must-have,but such efforts should be prudent
in order to avoid harming exis�ng distributors’ interests
• Partnership with key B2C e-commerce/O2O players is impera�ve to capitaliseon the trend
8 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · Grow1. CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW
2. DIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERS
3. IMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)
4. ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTING
Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
ROUTE TO MARKET STRUCTURE
High-level aftermarket digitalisa�on and standardisa�on are on the way, with
poten�al to further op�mise distribu�on efficiency and enhance service quality
Route-to-market structure of automo�ve parts Emerging flow Rising a�ermarket channels
Automotive parts manufacturer
1st �er distributor For national KA only OEM
(mainly branded WS
For national and O2O platform)
1
KA* only Wholesaler
B2B e-commerce platform
/ Reseller
3
In-house Workshop
B2C e-commerce 2 4
WS** of Branded WS O2O app + self-owned/ 4S store
(pure retail model) Independent WS
fleet (tradi�onal offline model) franchised/ authorised WS
Consumer
Note: *KA refers to key account with high purchasing volume
10 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com **WS refers to workshop Build · Compete · Grow
Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysisIpsos Business Consulting
SUMMARY OF RISING CHANNELS
Both B2B and B2C players are reshaping IAM dynamics, as they improve market
efficiency and customer experience
Product/Service Offering Key Advantage
• Price transparency in B2B market
Operate platforms that purchase
B2B E-COMMERCE • Larger geographical coverage, with faster delivery than
from parts manufacturer/
tradi�onal distributors/wholesalers
distributor and sell to workshops
• Customer analy�cs driven by Big Data
BRANDED WORKSHOP Offer offline repair/maintenance • More standardised repair & maintenance service compared
(TRADITIONAL
service to consumers with tradi�onal independent workshops
OFFLINE MODEL)
Sell parts to consumers online
B2C E-COMMERCE • Price transparency in B2C market
(RETAILER) without offline service
Sell parts to consumers online and
• Price transparency in B2C market
O2O PLATFORM
appoint specific workshops (self-
• More standardised repair & maintenance service compared
owned or franchised or authorised)
with tradi�onal independent workshops
to offer offline service
11 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
B2B E-COMMERCE
B2B e-commerce has built a strong market presence in recent years; Carzone and
Autozi are key representa�ves for asset-heavy and -light strategies respec�vely
Introduc�on of key types of B2B e-commerce
BUSINESS MODEL TOP PLAYERS & GMV* IN 2018 (UNIT: CNY BILLIONS) CATEGORY FOCUS
Reseller Carzone 2.6 • Started from consumable/ wearable
parts to quickly build customer base
Mainly generates profit by
Kuaizhun 0.9 • Gradually raised the share of repair/
price mark-up on top of
purchased price accident parts for higher profit margin
Tuhu 0.8
Marketplace Autozi 7.0
Mainly charges Baturu 2.8 • Wide coverage of both consumable/
commission, supply chain wearable parts and repair/ accident
Cass 2.4
finance, logistic service parts due to asset-light strategy
fees on parts suppliers Toto 2.0 • Less control on product quality
who operate a store on compared with reseller model
Autocloud 2.0
the platform
Chexiang 1.8
Note: *GMV (gross merchandise value). The business model classification is based on the source of majority GMV of each
12 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com
player. Some players utilise both reseller and marketplace models Build · Compete · Grow
Source: Official website of B2B e-commerce pla�orms; Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysisIpsos Business Consulting
B2B E-COMMERCE
B2B platforms can be a partner to reach more workshops, but the benefits of
tradi�onal distributors should be protected to avoid cannibalisa�on
Strengths compared with tradi�onal distribu�on
models How should auto parts manufacturers leverage?
Cooperate with B2B pla�orms to enlarge
Op�mise parts distribu�on efficiency through sales coverage but at a prudent pace.
advanced database and intelligent enquiry/ order dispatching Most brands hold a conserva�ve a�tude
systems on this prac�ce, in case tradi�onal
distributors interests are impacted
Offer value-added services (e.g. big data analy�cs, faster Ensure an appropriate hierarchy pricing
delivery, micro credit, technical and sales training) to structure in case distributor loses control
workshops power to B2B platforms, especially
platforms with reseller models
Enlarge geography and category coverage of parts Retain accessibility of customer (i.e.
distribution, combining own warehousing & shipping capacity workshop) data when coopera�ng with
with third-party logis�cs services B2B platforms, in prepara�on for long-
term growth strategy
13 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
BRANDED WORKSHOPS (TRADITIONAL OFFLINE MODEL)
Independent branded workshops excel in traffic genera�on while parts suppliers/
OEM sub-brands provide superior technical capability
* Number of outlets of self-owned &
Snapshot of different types of branded workshops using a tradi�onal offline model franchised stores
WORKSHOP TYPE REPRESENTATIVES OUR VIEW
High traffic volume but limited to consumable/wearable parts
Independent ~800* 955 • Usually leverages own app with O2O services to bring online traffic to
branded offline, then generate profit on offline orders from repeat customers
647 ~200 230+ • Hard to offer core services due to technical limita�ons
Relatively new model with a questionable future outlook
• S�ll in exploratory stages
OEM sub-brand Invested by Invested • Independent procurement for spare parts
~1,900 SAICMOTOR 529 by SAICGM • U�lises O2O service model
• Leverages OEM reputa�on and technical capability to win in IAM
Sub-brand of parts Stronger technical capability and wider category coverages;
300+
suppliers 1,500+ weaker in traffic generation due to lack of ‘internet genes’
• Bosch Car Service is expanding service coverage from quick service to
Sub-brand of dealer core parts (e.g. engine repair, brake inspec�on)
• Dealer group sub-brand WS can leverage their own technical capability
groups 108+ 7 to offer the same level of repair service at a lower price than 4S stores
14 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Official website of branded workshops; Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
O2O PLATFORM & B2C E-COMMERCE (RETAILER)
Various O2O platforms and B2C e-commerce services have developed niche
business models for their offerings
PROVIDER OF OFFLINE REVENUE MODEL (FOR ONLINE ORDERS
B2C PLAYER TYPE REPRESENTATIVES REPAIR/MAINTENANCE SERVICE ONLY)
O2O platform Generates profit by price mark-up and
with self-owned Self-owned store*
repair/maintenance service charges
workshop
Workshop franchised**/ authorised*** • O2O pla�orm generates profit by price mark-up
O2O platform by O2O pla�orm but owned/ operated for self-owned products and charges commission
cooperating with by third party (e.g. 天猫 站 authorised & ads fee for supplier-owned products
franchised or by Tmall, Tuhu’s franchised and • Repair/ maintenance service charges belong to
authorised workshop authorised workshop) workshop
• Generates profit by price mark-up for self-
B2C e-commerce owned products
pure retailer model No appointed workshops
• Charges commission and ads fee for supplier-
without offline service owned products
Door-to-door Staff from B2C pla�orms offer D2D
Charges D2D service fee
service provider service
Note: *Self-owned stores are 100% owned and operated by Tuhu with Tuhu’s store sign
15 **Franchised workshops are supervised by Tuhu, using Tuhu’s procurement & service system, but owned and operated by franchisees
consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com
***Authorised workshops are owned and operated by 3rd party without Tuhu store sign. They are cer�fied by Tuhu to serve users placing online orders on Tuhu App
Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
O2O PLATFORM & B2C E-COMMERCE (RETAILER)
O2O platforms coopera�ng with franchised/authorised workshops are expected to
increase market presence due to scalability and convenient user experience
SCALABILITY ON GEOGRAPHIC
B2C PLAYER TYPE USER EXPERIENCE COVERAGE QUALITY CONTROL ON PRODUCT/SERVICE
Consistent experience from High CapEx requirements Offers the best assurance on product and
O2O platform
online order placement to restrict expansion speed service quality through its self-owned
with self-owned
offline repair/maintenance model
workshop
O2O platform Consistent experience from Can quickly expand a�er audi�ng • Strict workshop audi�ng mechanism to ensure
cooperating with online order placement to workshop qualifica�ons service quality
franchised or offline repair/maintenance • Centralised procurement from manufacturer
authorised workshop /distributor to control product quality
B2C e-commerce Consumers have to find offline Only need to address warehousing and No control on offline service at all
pure retailer model workshops by themselves logis�cs for geographic expansion
without offline service
Door-to-door Rather limited to simple Hard to expand coverage due to Reliant on sub-contractor in service
service provider services such as car washing shortage of labour offering
16 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Great performance Poor performance Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
FUTURE TRENDS OF AUTOMOTIVE E-COMMERCE
Both B2B and B2C leading players are adop�ng an asset-light strategy for
expansion and transforma�on; B2B2C is evolving as a winning ecosystem with
comprehensive service for workshops
1 Asset-Light Strategy 2 B2B2C Ecosystem
Due to limita�ons on cash flow, human resources, and With internet giants such as Alibaba and JD entering the aftermarket,
over-supply of workshop number in the aftermarket, self- a B2B2C one-stop business model that connects parts suppliers,
operating models (e.g. self-owned workshops of B2C workshops and consumers is emerging
platforms, reseller model of B2B platforms) face challenges
Alibaba’s ecosystem as illustration
Parts supply via B2B Offer cer�fica�on/ endorsement Bring online traffic to
to third-party workshop offline via B2C
• AutoZi transformed from reseller to marketplace model Parts manufacturer
in 2018 / distributor
Consumer
• Carzone has not turned a profit with its reseller model
for 10 years
• Tuhu is unlikely to meet its vision of opening 2,000 self-
owned and franchised stores by 2020 (it had only 800
by the end of 2018)
Workshop
17 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consul�ng analysis Build · Compete · Grow1. CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW
2. DIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERS
3. IMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)
4. ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTING
Build · Compete · GrowIpsos Business Consulting
Next steps for auto parts suppliers in China’s after-sales marketplace
Objec�ves • Review current value proposi�ons and prepare for emerging opportuni�es brought by
new trends (diversifica�on, digitalisa�on and standardisa�on)
and Challenges • Iden�fy the variety of challenges in the new era
• Diagnose current route-to-market structure and evaluate the necessity of a revamp to
catch up with market trends
Channels • Ac�vely cooperate with new channel partners (e.g. B2B and B2C e-commerce, O2O
pla�orms, branded workshops)
• Iden�fy the core needs of emerging end-channel/ consumers and tailor the offering by
Products & customer segment
Services • Explore the possibility of offering value-added service and bundle-sales
• Empower tradi�onal channel partners to enhance their service quality and capability
19 consul�ng.bc@ipsos.com Source: Ipsos Business Consulting Build · Compete · Grow1. CHINA AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET OVERVIEW
2. DIVERSIFIED DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS AND DISRUPTIVE PLAYERS
3. IMPLICATIONS FOR AUTO PARTS SUPPLIERS IN IAM (INDEPENDENT AFTERMARKET)
4. ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTING
Build · Compete · GrowAUTHORS
Wijaya Ng Kate Gao Neil Sun
Head of Consul�ng, Associate Consulting Director, Senior Consultant,
Greater China Shanghai Shanghai
Wijaya.Ng@ipsos.com Kate.Gao@ipsos.com Neil.Sun@ipsos.com
+86 21 2231 9598 +86 21 2231 9627 +86 21 2231 9644
21
Build · Compete · GrowOUR GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET TEAM
GREATER CHINA
Wijaya Ng
NORTH AMERICA
Oscar Yuan
INDONESIA
Josua Siahaan
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