Identifying Non-Tariff Barriers: A Case Study of Attari-Wagah - Shodhganga
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Chapter 6 Identifying Non-Tariff Barriers: A Case Study of Attari-Wagah Border Amritsar (Punjab) South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was formed in 1985 with the broad objectives of economic, cultural and social cooperation among seven countries in South Asia (Dhungel, 2004). South Asian countries implemented the unilateral trade policy reforms with the goal of connecting themselves with the world economy (Taneja, 2001). The objective of SAFTA agreement is to support the intra-SAARC economic cooperation, regions potential for trade and development of their people. The agreement describes the method to remove the barriers to trade and facilitating the cross-border trade between contracting states with the purpose of fair competition. There have been several bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) within the region like India has FTAs with Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Similarly, FTAs are being negotiated between Pakistan and Sri Lanka and between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Despite such efforts by the South Asian countries, trade between India and Pakistan continues to be dreadfully low (Taneja, 2003). Under the tariff liberalization program, SAFTA allows members to maintain a negative list of items (Taneja et.al, 2011). The members of SAFTA decided a ten-year phase-out of tariffs at the beginning of January 2006. For least developed members (LDM) and non-least developed members (NLDM), tariff reduction is different. In the first two years of LDMs will decrease tariffs up to 30 percent, in case if the tariff is already below 30 percent then it will reduce by 10 percent every year. For the NLDMs, the maximum tariff reduction will be 20 percent. Tariffs already below 20 percent will be reduced by 10 percent yearly. In the second phase out of tariffs reduction for LDMs, is to between 0 and 5 percent over 8 years at a rate of no less than 10 percent annually (USAID, 2005). 119
Table 6.1: Tariff plan by the SAFTA member countries First Phase Second Phase SAARC Two Years Third Year Countries 1/1/2006-1/1/2008 1/1/2008-1/1/2018 LDCs Bangladesh Reduce tariffs to the 0-5% range Reduce maximum tariff to in 8 years (equal annually) Bhutan 30% Reductions recommended, but Maldives not less than 10%). Nepal Reduce tariffs to the 0-5% range in 5 years (Sri Lanka: in 6 years) Non-LDCs Note: It is recommended that India reductions to be made in equal Reduce maximum tariff rate to installments at least 15 percent Pakistan 20% reduction per year. Sri Lanka Reduce tariffs to 0-5% for products of the LDCs within a time frame of 3 years Source: USAID, 2005. Almost 53 percent of the total imports of trade between SAFTA members has subject to the negative lists (Appendix G) of the member countries. Among the larger member countries, India and Sri Lanka have restricted up to 38 percent and 52 percent, respectively, of their total imports by value from the SAFTA members under the sensitive list (Appendix H) category. Pakistan has excluded only 17 percent of its imports (by value) from SAFTA members under the tariff liberalization program (Srinivasan, 2006). 120
Table 6.2: Trade between India and Pakistan through Attari Land Route Year Exports Imports Total trade 2007-2008 N.A N.A US $ 129 million** 2011-2012 US $ 229 million*** US $ 161 million*** N.A 2012-2013 356.98 cr.* 92.59 cr.* US $ 161 million** 2013-2014 N.A N.A US $ 671 million** Source: * Business Standard, 2014 ** ASSCOM, 2014. ***Gill and Madaan, 2015. Several studies have pointed out that trade between the two countries is restricted by visa policy, lack of communication and infrastructure (Khan, 2009). Several trade routes of India were covered in order to incorporate the geographical diversity of commodities traded. In India, firms covered in the sample were spread across Delhi (34), Amritsar (33), Mumbai (61), Chennai (20), Kolkata (17) and Hyderabad (33) (Taneja et.al, 2014). In a similar vein, the present chapter makes an attempt to study the non-tariff barriers faced by the traders. A field survey has been conducted to understand the non-tariff barriers they face. For this purpose, Amritsar city (Attari-Wagah) has been selected for the survey because of the ethnic link of a trader with Pakistan. Total trade at this route has increased from US $129 million in 2007-08 to US $671 million in 2013-14 (Table 6.2). This survey is carried out during the month of August-November 2016.The list of 33 stakeholders engaged in bilateral trade was provided, out of which seven respondents refused to talk. The survey has found three exporter, eight importers, fifteen traders doing both the business of export and import with the Pakistan, four clearing agent and one customs officials. The Likert scale (1 to 5) has been employed to get responses from the stakeholders to know about the impact of confidential information and prediction from NTBs for trade between India and Pakistan. 121
Chart 6.1: Classification of Non-Tariff Barriers Non- Tariff Barriers Land Route Connectivity Security clash Political statement Most preferred Mode of Communication Communication Effective Communication Best source of Communication Cargo facilities Warehouse Infrastructure Barrier Lab Testing Scanner Gates at Wagah Availability of Wagon Carts Custom procedure Custom and Single window system documenting Corruption and Harassment Excessive Checking Ease in obtaining Visas Business Facilitation Availability of Visa Duration of Visa Illegal Trade Informal Trade Hawala Payment 122
Table 6.3: Time Duration of Firms Engaged in Trade Time Duration Name of the Firms 0-10 years VSB Import Export House Mediflower Herbals 10-20 years Fairway Trading Company Taran Over Seas Vishal Enterprise 20-40 years International Carriers Avatar Singh and Cooperation K.L. Gupts Consultants R.B Nath Lambha and Sons Quick Carriers Kishore International Pharma and Sons Jrahula Traders Krishna Jamuna Das Jagdish Commercial services 40-60 years KK Enterpriser Firm Shivojot Mandi JHB Enterprises Seven Star Avenue Vishesh Cargo Services Sabharwal and Sons Joginder Company Sanjay Enterprises Above 60 years Mohar Singh and Swaran Singh Malik Narayan Das And Sons Source: Field Survey, 2016. 123
The chart 6.1 reveals the existence of non tariff barriers faced by traders at the border. Table 6.3 highlights the respondents engaged in trade, it has been found that the two firms have been in the trading activity for the period of the last eight years, two companies engage in the trade for the past twenty years, ten of the respondents start business since 1947. Table 6.4: Product Exported and Imported from Pakistan Exported Imported Perishable Items Rice Cotton Yarn Roots Raw Material Crude Drugs Cement Glass Plants Lime Stone Tomato Crude Drugs Herbs , Ispaghol, Chawanprash, Hair Oil Herbs Spices , Caradamom, Cinnamon, Jaiphal, Rock Salt Javitri Karayana Spices Vegetables Gypsum Machinery Cement Ajwain Dry Fruits Tyres Dry Dates Textile Plants Roots Raw Cotton, Seed, Aluminum Ore, Gypsum Powder, Crush Gutka** Crude Oil * Auto Parts** Glass Float* Betel Leaves** Chemical*, Pluses*, Drugs * Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: *New Items, **Banned Items 124
Table 6.4 shows the primary items exported and imported by the Indian traders to Pakistan. During the month of September-October Dry Dates have been imported from Pakistan due to the demand of these items. Items exported to Pakistan via Wagah Land route are perishable items, Cotton yarn, Raw material, Cement, Plants, Tomato, Herbs, Spices, Vegetables, and Textile etc. Imports from Pakistan items namely, Rice, Crude drugs, Limestone, Rock salt, Spices, Dry fruits, Dry dates etc. Recently, a new item has been included in a trade like Crude oil, Chemical, Pluses and Drugs. Some items like Gutka, Auto Parts and Betel Leaves are banned for trade. Connectivity Problem With the launch of new ICP at Wagah border and change in the trade policy of Pakistan for India since 2012, the new trade regime has established between India and Pakistan (Gill and Madaan, 2015). Hence, to know the awareness level of the respondents for new developments in bilateral trade is imperative. The study found that about 87 percent of the interviewees are aware of the trade policy and tariff rates of the two countries. 20 percent of the respondents are aware of the railway service used for business, and they knew that goods produce under the SAFTA. Preferred Land Route However, traders preferred land route instead of the rail route due to the low cost and short distance which is only 18 kilometers from Wagah-Border. The survey indicated that around 92 percent of the respondents are satisfied with the Attari- Wagah land route and 8 percent prefer Hussainiwala-Ganda road (Figure 6.1). Some of the respondents stated that Jammu and Kashmir Land route, that is, Chakan Da Bagh has done trade through a barter system. That land route should have same road protocol which is implemented for the others land route. All the works should be done under the same law and procedure which is implemented for the other land routes. Due to the different procedure of trade, traders said that they suffer a lot. 125
Fig. 6.1: Most Prefered Land Route 92 8 0 Munabao-Khokhraoar Hussainwala-Ganda Attari-Wagah Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Security Clashes: The recent unprovoked firing at the border has discouraged traders. A survey has been conducted at the time when there are incidents of clashes on the Line of Control and at the working boundary of Pakistan and India. 78 percent of the respondents view that security clashes at the border between the two countries affected bilateral trade ties. Due to this, it hit their consignment. Fig. 6.2: Impact of Security Clashes between India and Pakistan on Trade 78 7 9 3 2 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 126
Impact of Political Disturbance on Trade: The validation of survey in 2014 by Taneja had a similar agenda that the two countries had a history of unfavorable political procedures. One of the respondents told that during the border tension in the month of July-August, 2016 has no impact on their trade because demand for fresh fruits, meat, nuts and other agricultural items increases on both sides. Discussions with respondents revealed that, the impact of political disturbance is temporary. In addition to this, none of the respondents reported that this tension has restrained the trade. Fig. 6.3: Impact of Political Disturbance on Trade 92 2 2 1 3 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Communication Barriers The arrival of the Internet, emails and mobile phones have significantly eased communication across the border, although roaming facilities for mobile phones from Pakistan and India and messaging services for Indians in Pakistan are still not available. The survey recorded in 2012 by Taneja, also found, that mode of communication was not simple. After four years, with the development of new technology, advanced app features have introduced by the software companies, as a result communication barriers have reduced. 127
Mode of Communication The survey indicated that almost all the respondents are fine with the present mode of communication. The traders recorded that they are in touch with their partners because they use whatsapp and Skype. Because they are in touch with them on a regular basis and it is difficult to establish new contacts. 35 percent of the respondents record that the telephone is the best source of channel to interact with their counterparts; 30 percent is fine with E-mail; 11 percent use mobile talk; 14 percent prefer SMS on Mobile Phone while 10 percent use Skype to interact with their partners (Figure 6.4). Fig 6.4: Most Preferred Mode of Communication 35 30 14 11 10 E-Mail Mobile Telephone SMS on Mobile Any other Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Ease of Communication The survey reveals that 50 percent of traders considered trade fairs are an efficient operational source of communication to interrelate with the partner country (Figure 6.5). These trade fairs act as imperative platforms for them to interact with the trading partner and be familiar with each others trade policy and quality of products, standard of product, technologies, etc. 70 percent of the respondents record that, visit as a tourist is the better way for trade and only 20 percent favour west portal as the foremost approach to identify the demand of merchandises in other countries and 10 128
percent prefer mobile talks as the best way. Respondents have pointed out that it is difficult for Pakistani traders to get a visa. Whenever there are border clashes at the frontier, the mobile connections are not working. They also state that for the verification of visa documents, there should be a police station in the cities (near to their offices) where verification will be held. To avoid all these hectic schedules they do not visit Pakistan. They prefer a trade fair, which is the best option for them to meet their counterparts. Fig. 6.5: Ease of Communication 50 20 15 10 3 2 West Port Newspaper Trade Fair Tourist Visit Electronic Any Other Media Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Infrastructure Constraints Lack of proper and inefficient infrastructure can raise transaction costs of trading. There are numerous blockages for transport of merchandise by the rail route. At present, goods are interchanged by rail through the goods wagon or by parcel wagons which are attached to the passenger train, Samjhauta Express (Taneja, 2014). There is a shortage of wagons as demand surpasses supply and goods are stuck for as long as 20 days. Again the allocation of wagons can take up to two months. Indian exporters assert that, there is no compensation that they get, if their goods are damaged. In spite of this, they have to pay the penalty. In the meantime the wagon balancing takes place only thrice a month, still there is a shortage of 129
wagons. The traders have pointed out that carts that are used at present are obsolete. There is no facility for movement of containerized rail consignment from Attari-Wagah Border. All containerized cargo has to be progressed by the sea route. An improved infrastructure facility at ICP on Wagah border has the foremost prerequisite for traders. The majority of the Indian stakeholders, almost 84 percent consider that improved infrastructure facilities on Attari Border will increase the trade (Figure 6.6). Fig . 6.6: Impact of Infrastructure on Trade 84 11 5 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Cargo Facilities 55 percent of the respondents believe that with the better-containerized cargo service at the Wagah border, would improve the respective trade manifolds. 45 percent of the respondents perceive its positive influence on the bilateral trade (Figure 6.7). 130
Fig. 6.7: Cargo Facilities 55 45 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Accessibility of Warehouse Warehousing and holding areas are necessary to promote trade. The availability of safe and secure storage and holding areas are critical in protecting the goods against stealing and damage. The availability of warehouse seems to be lower at the Wagah Border, Amritsar. The discussions during the survey discovered that stores are operating at full capacity and are not equipped to handle the existing trade volumes. Inefficient warehouse facilities at border create a major problem in bilateral trade. Fig 6.8: Warehouse Facilities 93 3 4 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 131
Availability of Wagons The respondents revealed that the availability of wagon is low/very low because they depend on the arrival of Pakistani wagons. So the demand for wagons by Indian traders is more. After the attack of Heroin in a cement consignment carried out by rail in the Amritsar railway station in July 2012, the demand for rail wagons has come down. In fact, exports of dates and cement have shifted to the road routes. The scarcity of wagons was another hurdle in trade via land routes. 80 percent of the Indian respondents recorded that they want more wagon (Figure 6.9). Time for Lab Testing Lab testing is a part of customs clearance producer applicable usually to imported goods. This is important to measure the standard of imported goods and to assess the specification of the product (Taneja and Pohit, 2014). The respondents stated that for the testing of their commodities, it takes a long time. 93 percent of the respondents reported that there are no proper warehouse facilities at the Attari- Wagah border. As a result, their items are jammed for a long day and their payment have been stopped. Fig 6.9: Demand for Extra Wagons 80 15 4 1 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 132
Scanner The screening of trade items for security reasons is another hurdle in India- Pakistan trade, by land route. 95 percent of respondents requested for a full body scanner on the Indian side of the border for increasing mutual trade between India and Pakistan (Figure 6.12). During the discussion, respondents stated that Pakistan has already two full body truck scanners on its side of the frontier. Fig 6.10: Facilitation of Scanner on Indian Side Border 95 2 3 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Roaming Facilities Although roaming facilities for the mobile cell from Pakistan and India is not available. The survey indicated that 80 percent of the respondents record that roaming facilities affect their trade (Figure 6.11). Both the countries are not allowing mobile roaming facility to their businessmen. Further, the present call rates for Indian traders are Rs. 13.5 per minute while the Pakistan traders have to pay only Rs. 3.62 per minute. For this, they have devised a remedy in which Indian traders place a missed call on their Pakistani traders number and they call them back. In this way, there is no much impact on this high call roaming charges on the trade. 80 percent of them opine that higher roaming charges have a very high impact on trade. 133
Fig 6.11: Impact of Roaming Facilities on Trade 80 10 6 1 3 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. More Gates at the Wagah border During the discussion with the traders about the opening of new gates, there is only one gate for exports to Pakistan and imports from Afghanistan, movement of passengers by bus and on foot. The border ceremony conducted by the Border Security Force (BSF) also takes place at the same gate. The trade occurs only from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. and the gate is closed at 4:00 p.m. for the border ceremony; hence no trade can take place after the gate is closed. Even Indian and Pakistani trucks are not allowed to cross the border of their respective countries, the trucks have to wait for the next morning at the gate itself. Another problem that they face at present is to pay a parking fee of the truck Rs. 250 per day. Goods are unloaded from the trucks and transported on head-loads by coolies up to the zero line where the goods are handed over to Pakistani coolies. Only in the case of frozen meat, cold storage trucks are allowed to come up to the zero line. In a day, only 10-12 trucks can cross the border. The road protocol is a time-consuming operation. In a 2012 amendment in the road protocol, Indian and Pakistani trucks are allowed to cross the border and unload. 45 percent reported that opening of more gates at the Wagah border must have a significant positive impact on the bilateral 134
trade. Only 5 percent of the respondents consider that there is no much impact on the trade because they trade only two-three items (Figure 6.11). Fig 6.12: Demand for New Gates 45 30 20 5 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Customs and Documentation The customs authorities play an important role to promote the trade. Land custom stations are located at road, rail, sea and airport (Taneja et.al., 2014). The survey has been conducted to understand which mode has the least or the most impediments. The earliest studies seem to suggest that the most inefficient route was the rail custom station at Attari, Amritsar (Gill and Maadan, 2014; Taneja, 2013). Time taken by Customs to process the documents The time has taken in preparing the material by the customs is two to three hours (either manually or electronically) till the goods are released. The primary documents required for trade include an Origin Invoice, Packing List, Quality Control Certificate, Bill of Export/Import, Certificate of Origin. However, Indian traders do not face any difficulty in the processing of their documents till all the work has done appropriately. The survey indicates that 86 percent of the respondents use the 135
Internet to file their papers and 14 percent use hard copy to submit their reports. 85 percent of the traders told that processing of time on the road port custom is high/very high (Figure 6.13). Fig 6.13: Time Taken by Customs to Process the Documents 45 40 10 5 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Single Window System 89 percent of the traders stated that they are satisfied with the present system of the single window system (Figure 6.14). Fig 6.14: Preference for Single Window System 89 3 7 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 136
Pruning of Sensitive List All the traders are aware of the sensitive list of items. Exporters reported that if all the items are allowed for bilateral trade, it would have a positive impact on their business. One of the exporters stated that 80 percent of exports of essential items have been going on and only 20 percent of imports come from Pakistan which is mainly Herbs and Textile. Recently, the Textile boosted their trade. 90 percent believe that if more items are pruned for trade, then it will definitely have a positive impact on their trade relations (Figure 6.15). Fig 6.15:Impact of Pruning Sensitive List on Bilateral Trade 90 3 5 2 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Corruption and Harassment Integrated Check Post (ICP) has been established to facilitate trade through land route to Pakistan. 67 percent of the respondents consider that there are cases of corruption/harassment at the land customs station at a high level (Figure 6.16). These need to be addressed by taking up the matter with the officials. 137
Fig 6.16: Corruption and Harassment 67 15 12 2 4 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Excessive Checking The political tensions and the security issues between India and Pakistan create the environment of excessive checking of consignments by customs. Sometimes it works as a barrier to trade between the two countries. The traders complained that security checks at ICP are more time consuming, which should be replaced with a more efficient electronic equipments using better technology such as scanners. The security arrangements in case of rail are inefficient, and facilities are inadequate. The survey indicates that 95 percent of the respondents felt the excessive check create hurdles in the trade, as their items do not reach in time and also perishable items usually damage due to lack of space. They pointed out that during rainy seasons their truck loaded with exportable goods remains outside without any shed. As a result, they face a lot of losses (Figure 6.17). 138
Fig 6.17: Impact of Excessive Checking 90 6 0 1 2 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Lack of Business Facilitation Policies: The business facilitation policies enable to smooth any business. In case of traders of these countries, the policies are not business friendly for them. Difficulty in Obtaining Visas Several studies have pointed out that the business between two countries is affected by the restrictive visa policy (Khan 2009; Gill and Madaan 2016). In a similar view, the survey indicated that Indian traders find it easier to obtain visas than their Pakistani counterparts. 90 percent of the respondents expected that the visa policy is liberal in the current scenario. Almost 70 percent of the traders stated that fifteen days are sufficient for the trade. 18 percent of the respondents mentioned that the duration of visa should be increased for more than one month so that they can interact with their counterparts to know the quality, standard, and market access. 7 percent of the respondents reported that one or two days are sufficient because frequent visit is not easy and there are no possibilities of advance payment (Figure 6.18). 139
Fig 6.18: Duration of Visa 70 18 7 3 2 One to Two days One Week Two Week One Month Two Month Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Availability of Visa To make trade mutually beneficiary, the visits of traders have to be frequent in each country. It requires a liberal visa regime, as 55 percent of the Indian respondents stated that visa-on-arrival is good for them to enhance the trade and 30 percent mentioned that visa policy is less liberal. Fig 6.19: Availability of Visa 55 30 10 5 Less liberal Easy More Liberal On arrival Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 140
Banking Facilities The availability of banking services is required for quick clearance of payments by the buyers and sellers of commodities. 99 percent of the respondents record that they are satisfied with the present arrangements with the bank of payments; they can easily transfer funds from their bank to the nominated bank electronically. 95 percent are happy with the efficiency of the bank. The availability of these facilities would lead to the increase in bilateral trade (Figure 6.20). Fig 6.20: Impact of Banks 70 25 10 5 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Informal Trade The informal trade happens in those commodities which are not in Pakistan’s positive list and have a high tariff in Pakistan (Acharya, 2012). The informal trade creates difficulties in payments by creating informal payment mechanism. 20 percent of the respondents agree that Hawala/irregular payments are going on between India and Pakistan due to the over invoicing of the trade payments. It is further reported by 21 percent of the respondents that irregular payments are affecting the normal trade between India and Pakistan at a high/very high level (Figure 6.21). During the discussion, one of the respondents stated that they sent 600 bags of items to Pakistan, but only 580 bags reached in Pakistan. They usually pay six-times fair 141
charges for their commodities stuck at the border and moreover, customs officer does not take any responsibility. They wash their hands by giving them set up receipt, which will save the duty of customs officials. Fig 6.21: Impact of Informal Trade on Formal Trade 76 15 6 3 Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Source: Field Survey, 2016 Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Convenient Route Almost 99 percent of respondents are satisfied with the land route because they are doing trade for the period of more than fifty years. The land route proved to be beneficial for the traders. In the case of clashes between the countries, they do trade by another mode via sea route which is less expensive as compared to air route. Fig 6.22: Convienent Route For Trade 99 1 Land Sea Air Anyother Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses 142
Irregular Payment It is further reported by 47 percent of the Indian respondents that the impact of irregular payments (Hawala) is very high and it has a negative impact on their trade (Figure 6.23). 20 percent of the traders prefer to trade through another country like Afghanistan, Gulf countries, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and with other SAARC countries. And 80 percent favour trade with Pakistan due to their ethnic languages and links. Fig 6.23: Hawala Payment 90 2 2 5 1 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses Impact of Illegal Trade In spite of the occurrence of informal trade known as quasi legal on the border, illegal trade also persists. Under invoicing, misclassification and bribery of customs and other officials are best interpreted as illegal. The majority of the traders record that the impact of illegal trade is very high. They accept it, but none of them want to give detailed information on it. 143
Fig 6.24: Impact of Illegal Trade on Legal Trade 97 1 2 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Future Expectations Both the countries are interested in increasing the cross border trade to improve the trade relations. 78 percent of the Indian respondents expected that mutual trade between India and Pakistan would increase in the future at a high/very high level (Figure 6.25). After the announcement of demonetization, most of the traders have faced the problem of reduced demand for their commodities. After 8 November 2016, the demand of their commodities has been reduced around 60-70 percent. Fig 6.25: Future Expectation 78 15 5 2 Significantly Increase No change Reduce Drastically increase reduce Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 144
The view of the respondents about the statement ‘If Pakistan allows the imports of all items instead of 137 items via Wagah’ that it would significantly increase the mutual trade between India and Pakistan. 92 percent of the Indian respondents expected that if Pakistan allows all the 137 items via Wagah border, then it will have strengthened the trade (Figure 6.27). Five percent respondents viewed that it will not have any effect on business. Fig 6.26: Impact of Increased Items from Pakistan on Bilateral Trade 92 5 3 Significantly increase Increase No change Reduce Drastically reduce Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. Labeling of the Product 92 percent of the Indian respondents consider that the country label on tradable goods have a positive impact on bilateral trade (Figure 6.28). In fact, several traders viewed that some Pakistani products like Dry Dates and Textiles are in high demand in the Indian market. 145
Fig 6.27: Labeling of Product 92 5 2 1 Very Low Low Average High Very High Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. New Facilities at ICP Wagah-Border 30 percent of the respondents record that they got new facilities at the integrated checkpoint at Attari. 70 percent of the traders stated that they do not get any new facilities at Attari border (Figure 6.29). They are much satisfied with new market created especially for food and vegetable. Fig 6.28: New Facilities at ICP Wagah-Border 70 30 YES NO Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses. 146
Table 6.5: Main Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs) being faced by the Traders Sr. No. NTBs Percentage 1. Security Clashes 92 2. Hawala payment 90 3. Infrastructure Constraints 84 4. Roaming facilities 80 5. Informal trade 76 6. Corruption and Harassment 67 Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses Table 6.5 reveals the main non-tariff barriers being faced by the traders. 92 percent of the respondents stated that due to the security clashes at the Attari-Wagah border their consignment has been stopped. 80 percent mentioned that due to the high charges of roaming facilities, they are not properly able to converse with their counterparts. 84 percent of the respondents record that there should be more space for warehouse facilities, storage facilities for their goods shipment. 76 percent of the respondents viewed that due to the informal trade, demand for their goods decreases. The respondents’ suggestion for the responses has been taken in the form of Likert scale. Table 6.6 reveals the preferences described for each item by the respondents. The ranking represents the most preferred, and the ranking five makes the least preferred item. The table illustrates that 100 percent of the respondents preferred the role of banks and communication plays a very essential role to promote trade as it will boost their trade and build stronger trade relations between both the countries. The respondents viewed that the biggest problem that they face is excessive security check as it creates the issue of payments. According to them, there should be the expansion of trade through the Attari-Wagah border and the 147
opening of the second gate at the Integrated Checkpoint. In the same manner, 86 percent of the subjects emphasize the need of establishing a single window system. Table 6.6: Ranking of Suggested Trade Measures Number of Trade Measure Ranking Percentage respondent firm Banking Facilities 01 29 100 Electronic Communication 01 29 100 Facilitates Single Window System 02 25 86 Timely discussions among all trading 03 24 83 agents Warehouse and Cold Storage 04 20 69 Facilities Avoidance of Hectic Security Checks 01 29 100 Need for Less Documentation And 03 24 83 Procedures Electronic Filing of the Documents 04 20 69 Greater Transportation Infrastructure 05 05 17 Transparency and Access to Trade 05 06 21 Regulation And Procedures Uniform and Non-Discriminatory 05 10 34 Rules Avoidance of Excessive Checking 05 29 100 Source: Field Survey, 2016. Note: Figures are percentage of the responses Informal trade between India and Pakistan Several studies recognize that informal trade between the two countries is large and pervasive. The informal trade estimates provided at various points of time by various scholars are evaluated. High tariff is the primary cause of informal trade across the borders. The informal trade attracts mainly the group of consumer goods. 148
The products like clothing, food, etc. are traded informally. As the prices of these goods are tiny, it makes the casual trade profitable (Siriwardana, 2001). The situation of informal trade arises due to the presence of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in the form of quantitative and other restriction (Taneja, 2004). Magnitude and Composition of Informal Trade between India and Pakistan Some studies have simply identified the commodities traded informally; some have provided guess estimates on total quantities or commodities traded informally. According to the estimates of The Economist, the Informal trade of India to Pakistan has US $ 2000 million in 1996. But the study of Taneja (2012-13) depict that informal trade has increased from US $ 465 million in 2005 to US $ 4.71 billion in 2012-13 (Table 6.7). A very recent study by ICRIER 2016 reveals that high tariffs, political tension, infrastructure impediments, ease of trading goods via third countries have generated a thriving industry for informal trade between the two South Asian giants. 58 percent of the traders cited ease of sending goods via third countries. The commodities are real jewellery namely gold, diamond and precious stones, which have accounted for 23 percent share in Informal exports from India to Pakistan. Most of the informal trade between the two countries are also to be found via a third country, especially Dubai, about 68 percent of India’s informal exports to Pakistan are found to be made via this route. 59 percent of informal imports from Pakistan are accounted by passengers travelling by bus or rail. 24 percent of informal imports from Pakistan are via Line of Control trade routes, while 17 percent is via Dubai (Jain, 2016). 149
Table 6.7: Estimates of India-Pakistan Informal Trade Author Year of Informal Informal Total Study exports from imports informal trade (US$ India to from million) Pakistan (US$ Pakistan to million) India (US$ million) The Economist* 1996 - - 2000 Government of 1996 50 50 100 Pakistan* Government of 1996 a - 700 to 800 Pakistan* Nabi and Naseem* 2001 - - 250 Khan et. al.* 2001 - - 438 Mukherjee* - - - 545 ASSOCHAM* 2005 - - 965 Taneja and Jain 2012-13 4 billion 720 billion 4.71 billion Source: Taneja*, 2004. Taneja and Jain, 2015. Based on the varied studies, Table 6.8 depicts the composition of informal exports from India to Pakistan. According to Government of Pakistan (1996) and Field survey (2016) Betel leaves, Textile, Confectionery, Electronic appliances, Paper, Dry Fruits and Liquor have been informally traded from India via third route due to the high charges. (approximately 258 for per gram on betel leave). Other items, namely Cattle and Other Livestock, Spices, Tea, Tubes, Silk Fabric, Medical Herbs are not informally traded in 2015-2016. Table 6.9 shows the informal imports from Pakistan to India by the different studies. The major commodities are Textile, Spices, Wheat, Edible Oils, Consumer 150
goods, Synthetic fibers followed by the Dry fruits, Plastic Goods, Textile and Clothing, Melamine Dinner Sets and Tobacco products. From the study of Taneja, 2015 commodities, namely Dry Fruits and Plastic Goods are not under the category of informal trade. According to Khan, Sugar, Ghee and Tobacco products come under the category of informal trade. On the other hand, the Government of Pakistan recorded that Cattle and Other Livestock, Betel Leaves, Spices, Tubes, Tyres, Silk Fabric, Semi-Precious Stones, Dry Fruits, Medical Herbs and Liquor come under the category of informal trade. It can be summarized that non-tariff barriers are still prominent at the Attari Wagah Route. The major non-tariff barriers faced by the traders are security clashes, infrastructure constraints, corruption and harassment, informal trade and Hawala payment. This is the major reason for the existence of the informal trade in this route. The bilateral trade between India and Pakistan will get upgraded when these barriers are eliminated forever. The imports plays a tremendous role among both the countries throws the enhancement of trade by introducing technology into partner countries. If both the nations have strong market, then the interference of a third route could be excluded at the same time it will enable both the countries to enjoy the benefits of low transportation cost which gradually increase the revenue of the government as well as the welfare of the society. Thus, the trade will earn the potential to fill the gaps between both the countries which resulted in the emergence of the primary issues since independence. In addition to this, the wider trade with Pakistan will generate the scope and opportunity for transit trade beyond Pakistan, and spreads to Afghanistan and Central Asia. 151
Table 6.8: Composition of Informal Exports from India to Pakistan Khan GOP GOP Mukherji FICCI PHDCCI ASSOCHAM Taneja, Survey et. al. 1996 1996 2001 2001 2004 2006 2015 2016 2005 Cattle and other livestock Betel leaves Spices Tea Tyres Tubes Silk fabric Tubes Silk fabric Semi-precious stones Silver metal Dry fruits Betal items Homeopathic medicines Medicinal herbs Film magazines Liquor Auto parts Chemicals Cotton and silk sarees Cloth Viscose fibre Stainless steel Cosmetics Cotton fabric Confectionaries Industrial machinery Cement Tannery equipment Video tapes, cassettes Pharmaceutical Jewellery Biri Blankets Razor blades Textile Electronics appliance Paper Source: Taneja, 2004. Taneja, 2015. Field Survey, 2016. 152
Table 6.9: Composition of Informal Imports from Pakistan to India GOP GOP Mukherji FICCI PHDCCI ASSOCHAM Khan Taneja, Survey 1996 1996 2001 2001 2004 2006 et. al. 2015 2016 2005 Textile Dried fruits Spices Carpets Wheat Edible oil Misc. Consumer goods Steel and copper scrap Dry fruits Water coolers Steel and copper scrap Synthetic fabrics Gold Narcotics Second hand clothing Plastic goods Pulses Spices Textiles and clothing Melamine dinner sets Sugar Ghee Tobacco products Leather products Video games and CDs Source: Taneja, 2004. Taneja, 2015. Field Survey, 2016. 153
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