Camden Business and Employment Bulletin - August 2021
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Cover photograph courtesy of Brian O’Donnell. For a Word or RTF version of the document, email population@camden.gov.uk Produced by Camden Strategy and Change and Economic Development © London Borough of Camden, 2021 Camden Business and Employment Bulletin August 2021
No 1 January 2012 Camden Business and Employment Bulletin [Link to Databook] August 2021 Contents Contents ..................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 Businesses in Camden............................................................................................... 5 Business numbers and characteristics ................................................................... 5 Employment in Camden businesses....................................................................... 7 Commercial property ............................................................................................ 10 House prices and rents ......................................................................................... 12 Labour market in Camden ........................................................................................ 14 Employment .......................................................................................................... 14 Unemployment ..................................................................................................... 16 Economic inactivity/worklessness ......................................................................... 19 Unemployment, economic inactivity/worklessness: key issues ............................ 21 Making sense of youth unemployment at a local level ...................................... 23 Skills and Qualifications ........................................................................................ 26 Introduction The Camden Business and Employment Bulletin has been developed by the Economic Development and Strategy & Change teams in Camden Council in order to provide an up to date snapshot of the state of the economy in the borough and more widely in London. The bulletin can be used by Camden-based services, partners and businesses to inform their plans, strategies and priorities and to support the development of business cases and applications for funding. Central London is defined in the bulletin and the accompanying databook as an aggregation to the eight Central London Forward (CLF) boroughs1. The bulletin identifies key issues and areas of need in Camden. Its purpose is not to propose solutions to the issues highlighted nor does it detail the range of activities the Council’s Economic Development team is taking forward with our partners in response to Camden’s needs and opportunities. For further details on these activities, please visit the business and employment pages of www.camden.gov.uk. 1 Central London Forward is composed of the following eight Central London boroughs: Camden, City, Islington, Kensington & Chelsea, Lambeth, Southwark, Wandsworth and Westminster. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 3 August 2021
The bulletin contains a mixture of data that predates the COVID-19 pandemic, laying-off and furloughing of workers; and data that is feeding through that does start to show the economic impact. The bulletin is normally updated every 3 months. It is supported by the accompanying Camden Business and Employment Databook which includes a number of regularly updated indicators and it also draws on data from the 2011 Census – Camden Council has produced 2011 Census summary analysis for Camden and its wards, while a set of detailed labour market and qualifications tables has also been made available. Unless otherwise stated, data is available in the Camden Business and Employment Databook. If you have any comments or feedback on the bulletin or data that you would like to see included in future updates, e-mail EconomicDevelopment@camden.gov.uk. COVID-19 Impacts The impact of Covid-19 on our economy is still unfolding, but it will be profound and long lasting. Evidence suggests that the economic impact, like the experience of the virus itself, will be experienced disproportionally by groups who are already struggling - with jobs losses and impact on earnings more marked for young people, women, low paid workers, and individuals from Black, Asian, and other ethnic backgrounds. Existing groups that the Council is focused on supporting into work, including care leavers and carers, are likely to be further negatively affected. Camden’s Good Work Camden programme is the local authority’s new employment support service. The service includes two Job Hubs in Gospel Oak and Regent’s Park, with a third in development, and also our long-established Camden Apprenticeships and King’s Cross Construction Skills Centre services. Over the last year, the Job Hubs have supported over 100 residents into work, 98 residents into enterprise training and over 50 residents into education and training. The provisions are open to all. The Camden Renewal Commission brings together a range of partners to develop practical solutions to help achieve an inclusive and sustainable economy that addresses the inequalities that exist in Camden. The Commission met for the first time in September and has focused on developing an initial set of missions that rally partners and citizens and act as calls to action as part of the borough’s broad response to the pandemic and the economic and social impact it has had and will continue to have in the future. Work around the Renewal Commission missions will instigate a range of activity to support longer-term responses and economic recovery. The Renewal Commission missions are: Borough wide diversity in positions of power Every young person is able to create and access opportunity Everyone in Camden has nutritious, affordable, sustainable food to eat. Camden’s neighbourhoods are creative and sustainable Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 4 August 2021
Businesses in Camden Camden’s geographic position in Central London and the business environment created has enabled it to become one of the most important business locations in the country. By nearly all indicators, pre-COVID-19, Camden’s businesses were doing relatively well. Employment growth has been strong in the borough. However, it is not possible to ascertain the risks or impacts on businesses posed by changes in the global economy, the global COVID-19 pandemic, or from the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. There are a large number of businesses in Camden - large employers as well as micro enterprises and Small to Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs). Many specialise in highly skilled and high value employment such as those in the Professional, Scientific and Technical and Information and Communication sectors. Business numbers and characteristics Camden is home to the second highest number of businesses in London after Westminster and is third highest in the UK. There were 36,805 businesses in Camden in March 20202, a 2% increase on 2019, with the number of businesses growing 52% since 2008. Camden has the 3rd highest number of businesses in the UK after Westminster and Birmingham. Camden accounts for 6.2% of all London local (business) units. Camden has some large employers but the majority of firms in Camden are small with few employees. Of Camden’s 36,805 businesses, the vast majority (31,495; 86%) employ fewer than 10 employees and three-quarters (27,490; 75%) employ fewer than 5. By contrast, there are 185 businesses with 250 or more employees, accounting for 0.5% of businesses in Camden2. Camden has the second highest number of business start-ups in London and the third highest number of businesses closures. There were 6,435 business ‘births’, new enterprises started up in Camden in 20193 (the latest year available), a 3% decrease on revised4 figures for 2018. This is the 2nd highest business births figure in London, after Westminster (9,180). There was an increase in the number of business ‘deaths’ between 2018 and 2019, up 1,580 2 Source: UK Business: Activity, Size and Location, Local Units, 2020 (ONS). Note that the estimates predate the COVID-19 related lockdowns and restrictions. 3 Source: Business Demography 2019 (ONS). 4 Due to a change in tax law in 2016, ONS has reviewed recent business demography data (2015- 19) and advises caution for some areas, including Camden, due to large numbers of PAYE & VAT registrations (500+) at an individual postcode. This affects total numbers and business survival rates. See notes on the ‘Business Demography’ tab of the databook (see cell A79), including links to further information. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 5 August 2021
to 5,470 (+41%) in 2019. Camden ranks 3rd in London by the number of business ‘deaths’, but is lower than Westminster (9,150) and the City (5,750). Two-fifths of new Camden businesses survive for five years. Of Camden enterprises that started-up in 2014, 39% were still active five years later in 2019. This is better than the survival rates for Central London5 and Greater London (36% and 39% respectively), but is lower than the national average (42%). Amongst London boroughs, in 2019, Camden ranked 24th by business survival rates, compared to 6th in 2010. Camden has a higher proportion of large businesses by turnover than London or the UK. 13.1% of Camden enterprises had a turnover of £1m or more in 2020, higher than for businesses in London generally (10.2%) and the UK (9.4%), but lower than Central London (15.5%). In London, only the City and Westminster have a higher proportion, while Camden ranks 9th in the UK6. Camden made a large contribution to the national economy according to localised estimates of GVA (Gross Value Added) statistics. Prior to COVID-19, the revised ONS estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA)7 showed that Camden added £34.4Bn to the national economy in 2018, an increase of 93% on 2008, growing faster than Central London (54%), Greater London (45%) or UK (34%). Camden is the 4th largest contributor to GVA in London after the City (£69.1Bn), Westminster (£68.4Bn), and Tower Hamlets (£34.6Bn). Camden contributes 7.6% of London’s GVA and 1.8% of national (UK) GVA. Camden specialises in highly skilled, high value parts of the economy such as law, management consultancy and advertising. The largest industrial sector in Camden is Professional, Scientific & Technical enterprises that make up 29% of enterprises in Camden, compared with 21% in Greater London. The sector includes legal, management consultancy, architectural and engineering practices, scientific research and advertising/market research8. 5 Central London Forward boroughs: Camden, City of London, Islington, Kensington & Chelsea, Lambeth, Southwark, Wandsworth and Westminster. 6 Source: UK Business: Activity, Size and Location Survey 2020 (ONS). 7 GVA measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in the UK. The figures are not deemed ‘National Statistics’ but ONS has provided an ‘Experimental Statistics’ time-series of GVA estimates from 1998-2018 for English local authorities. Each year the entire series is recalculated on current prices (ONS, 2019). GVA has not yet been updated. 8 Source: UK Business: Activity, Size and Location 2020 (ONS). See UK SIC 2007 for a full classification. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 6 August 2021
Employment in Camden businesses Prior to COVID-19 382,000 jobs were located in Camden, 7.1% of London’s employment. There were 382,000 jobs9 located in Camden, the third highest in London after Westminster and the City. The latest figure relates to 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and shows that - up to that point - employment continued to grow. In 2019, Camden had 91,600 (31.5%) more jobs than in 2009, compared to employment growth experienced in Central London (31.4%), Greater London (25.7%) and GB (11.6%). Despite a longer-term trend of growth in part-time jobs in Camden, there was a fall-off in part-time employment 2017-18 of 8,000 jobs (-8.7%) which has carried through into 2019. Over the long-term, there has still been a large growth in part- time employment, increasing by 23,600 (39%) 2009-2019, while full-time employment rose by 57,100 (31%). Part-time employment has increased more in Camden than Central London (29%), Greater London (27%) or Great Britain (14%). Geographically, 60% of jobs are located in the central London portion of Camden to the south of Euston Road; a quarter of jobs (24%) are concentrated in the central Camden Town/Euston/Regent’s Park/Somers Town areas; while the remainder of Camden's jobs (16%) are scattered across town centres and employment sites in north and west Camden, including Hampstead, Kentish Town and Swiss Cottage. Between 2009 and 2019, most industrial sectors saw moderate to strong employment growth: Strong growth (over 10,000 jobs) was concentrated in 5 sectors: Health (+19,000; 19% of growth) Information & Communication (+19,000, 19% of growth) Business Administration & Support Services (+12,000, 12% of growth) Accommodation & Food Services (+10,000, 10% of growth) Education (+10,000; 10% of growth) Moderate growth (1,000-10,000 jobs) was seen in the following sectors: Professional, Scientific & Technical (+9,000; 9% of growth) Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Other Services (+7,000; 7% of growth) Construction (+3,000, 3% of growth) Retail (+3,000, 3% of growth) Financial & Insurance (+3,000; 3% of growth) Property (+2,000; 2% of growth Wholesale (+1,000; 1% of growth) Public Administration & Defence (+1,000, 1% of growth) Low/no growth (less than 1,000 jobs) was seen in: Motor Trades (+550;
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (+30); Mining, Quarrying & Utilities (no change) There have been employment losses in the following sectors during 2009-2019: Manufacturing (-1,000) and Transport & Storage (-6,000) See Figures 1 and 2 below. By far the largest sector by employment in Camden is the Professional, Scientific & Technical sector, providing 75,000 jobs (20% of all jobs), compared with 13% for London as a whole10; though reduced from a peak in 2016 of 88,000. The sector includes: Legal and accounting activities Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis Scientific research and development Advertising and market research Other professional, scientific and technical activities – including design, photography, translation Figure 1: Big Industry Groups – Total Employment Change 2009-2019 90,000 13: Professional, Scientific & Technical (M) 10: Information & Communication (J) 80,000 17: Health (Q) 16: Education (P) 70,000 14: Business Administration & Support Services (N) 09: Accommodation & Food Services (I) 60,000 18: Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Other Services (R,S,T & U) 50,000 07: Retail (Part G) 15: Public Administration & Defence (O) 40,000 88: Transport & Storage (inc postal) (H) 11: Financial & Insurance (K) 30,000 04: Construction (F) 06: Wholesale (Part G) 20,000 12: Property (L) 03: Manufacturing (C) 10,000 02: Mining, Quarrying & Utilities (B,D & E) 0 05: Motor Trades (Part G) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 01: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (A) Source: Business Register and Employment Survey 2019, © ONS Crown Copyright, 2020. 10 Source: Business Register & Employment Survey 2019 (ONS). Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 8 August 2021
Figure 2: Employment by Big Industry Group 2019, Camden & London Industry group (Class), percentage Camden London Source: Business Register and Employment Survey 2019, © ONS Crown Copyright, 2020. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 9 August 2021
Travel to work [data from the 2011 Census]. The 2011 Census showed that 21% of Camden residents lived and worked in Camden, while a further 14% worked mainly at or from home. The majority of Camden–resident workers (58%) travelled outside the borough to work. The most common destination for Camden-resident workers was other London boroughs (57%, with 27% working in Westminster and in the City). The most common non- London destinations are Watford, Hertsmere and Welwyn Hatfield. 8% of Camden- resident workers have no fixed place of work. 91% of all people who worked in Camden in 2011 lived outside the borough. The majority (70%) lived in other London boroughs, the highest proportion from Barnet, Islington, Haringey and Lambeth. For those commuting from outside London, the top five origins were St Albans, Hertsmere, Epping Forest, Dacorum and Watford11. Compared to 2001, there has been a 20% growth in Camden residents in employment (from 91,900 to 110,200) and a 10% growth in the number of people employed in Camden (from 227,700 to 250,000). Travel to work data will become available from the 2021 Census by 2023, but it is expected that patterns will be affected by the COVID-19 restrictions that were in force at the time of the census. Working arrangements were not typical, with many workers furloughed, working from home and some from second homes elsewhere. Others affected were made (temporarily or otherwise) unemployed. Median gross pay of people working in Camden is higher than London. The median gross annual pay for full-time employees working in Camden was £40,772 in 2020. Camden’s median gross annual pay is lower than for Central London (£42,812), but higher compared to Greater London (£41,017) or UK (£31,461). Average pay increased in Camden in 2019-2020 by 1.3%, lower than the increases for Central London (3.1%), Greater London (5.1) or UK (3.6%)12. Commercial property Camden has the third most valuable commercial property estate in London after Westminster and the City. Business premises in Camden were valued at £1.59bn in aggregate for the purposes of business rates in September 2020, slightly lower than £1.62bn in September 2018 and 2019. This is the third highest total of London boroughs after 11 Source: 2011 Census (ONS). Compares with 2001 Census, when 84% of workers in Camden lived outside the borough and 60% of Camden residents worked outside the borough. 12 Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2020, from NOMIS. Based on a sample survey of employee earnings paid via PAYE. ASHE 2020 relates to the pay period that includes 22 April 2020, at which time approximately 8.8 million employees were furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS); the estimates include furloughed employees and are based on actual payments made to the employee from company payrolls and the hours on which this pay was calculated, which in the case of furloughed employees are their usual hours. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 10 August 2021
Westminster and the City13 and sees Camden’s share of London rateable value fall slightly from 7.98% to 7.83%. The total amount of commercial property available in the borough is increasing but the pressure on employment space resulting from high land values, housing need and permitted development remains significant. In 2016, Camden had 2,578,000 sq.m of commercial and industrial floorspace, up from 2,471,000 sq.m in 201214. In 2019/20 a total of 112,653 sq.m of B1 floorspace was completed and 76,111 sq.m was lost, resulting in a net gain of 36,542 sq.m. (The B1 business use class includes offices (B1a), light industrial uses (B1b), and warehouses (B1c)). Trends in B1 floorspace vary year by year, with recent years seeing net gains15. Although there is forecast growth in employment floorspace from large office developments, the Council remains concerned to ensure that a range of types and sizes of business space is available in the borough, including space that is suitable and affordable for SMEs. Much of the loss of B1 business floorspace in recent years has been for redevelopment or conversion to housing. The government introduced permitted development rights in May 2013, which meant that offices (including viable and occupied premises) could be converted into residential use without planning permission. Councils have very limited powers to resist changes made under the permitted development right. Almost 50,000 sq.m of office floorspace was lost as a result of the permitted development right between May 2013 and May 2020. In response to evidence of the impact of the permitted development rights, the Council introduced 'Article 4 Directions' to remove these right for the majority of office premises in the borough and also for light industrial premises. Any changes of use proposals need a planning application and, therefore, they will be assessed by the Council against its planning policies. In September 2020, the government changed planning use classes to introduce a new 'Commercial, Business and Service' use class (Class E). This incorporates the former B1 use class as well as a wide range of others uses including shops, financial services, restaurants and cafes, medical and health services, nurseries, gyms and other indoor recreation uses. Changes between the uses in Class E is not considered to be ‘development’ and therefore do not require planning permission or any prior approval and it is not possible to introduce Article 4 Directions. This reduces the Council’s ability to protect employment floorspace and manage its supply. The government also introduced new permitted development rights on 1 August 2021 that allow change of use from Class E uses to housing without planning permission. Existing Article 4 Directions for office to residential changes of use 13 Source: CIPFA, 2020. 14 Source: Valuation Office Agency (VOA). 15 Source: LB Camden Planning Service unpublished data. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 11 August 2021
remain in place until 1 August 2022 under transitional arrangements but Directions relating to light industrial premises no longer apply. In response, the Council is introducing Article 4 Directions to remove the new permitted development right to protect office and light industrial premises and town and neighbourhood centres. The Directions are due to come into force at the end of July 2022, subject to consideration by the government. House prices and rents Average house prices in Camden are amongst the highest in the country. Average house prices in Camden are the fourth highest in the country after Westminster, City and Kensington & Chelsea. Camden prices peaked in July 2019 at £894,89816, but prices have since fluctuated and now stand at £878,870 in June 2021. House prices in Camden are 1.7 times higher than Greater London and 3.1 times that for England & Wales. The average price for a flat/maisonette (the most common property type in Camden) in June 2021 is £785,703. In tandem with the overall average price, this property type peaked in July 2019 (at £807,835). All other house types (detached, semi-detached and terraced) are currently at an historical high, with average detached houses in Camden priced at £3.2m. By volume, the number of sales long-term average is 200 per month. In the year to March 2021, sales were lower, averaging 120 per month. See Fig.3 below. Figure 3: Average House Prices Average House Prices; Volume of Sales in Camden £1,000,000 500 £900,000 450 £800,000 400 £700,000 350 House prices £600,000 300 Sales £500,000 250 £400,000 200 £300,000 150 £200,000 100 £100,000 50 £0 0 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Greater London England & Wales Camden Sales Volume: Camden Source: Land Registry. This data covers the transactions received at Land Registry in the period 1 Jan-08 to 30 Jun-21, © Crown copyright 2021. 16 Source: Land Registry. Note that previous bulletins may have quoted different figures: the Land Registry continually updates both current and historic registrations to provide the most up-to-date house prices and trends. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 12 August 2021
Private sector rents are higher in Camden than London as a whole. In March 2021, the mean monthly rent was £1,861 and the median rent was £1,582. In March 2021 (latest figures17), the mean monthly private sector rent for a two bedroom property in Camden was £2,106 (£498, 31% higher than the London average), while a three bedroom property was £2,725 (£741, 37% higher). In the year to March 2021: Mean rents for all property sizes decreased: Room-only rents decreased by £249 per month (-24%); Studios have decreased by £302 per month (-23%); 1 bed properties have decreased by £299 per month (-17%); 2 bed properties have decreased by £240 per month (-10%); 3 bed properties have decreased by £387 per month (-12%); and 4+bed properties have decreased by £282 per month (-7%). Overall, mean rents for all properties reduced by £441 per month (-19%). Median rents provide an average figure not skewed by extremes. In March 2021 (latest figures), the Median monthly private sector rent for a two bedroom property in Camden was £1,950 (£500, 34% higher than for London as a whole), while a three bedroom flat was £2,250 (£525, 30% higher). In the year to March 2021: Median rents for all property sizes decreased: Room-only rents have decreased by £125 per month (-14%); Studios have decreased by £246 per month (-21%); 1 bed properties have decreased by £383 per month (-22%); 2 bed properties have decreased by £360 per month (-16%); 3 bed properties have decreased by £650 per month (-22%); and 4+bed properties have decreased by £629 per month (-17%). Overall, median rents for all properties decreased by £468 per month (-22%). 17 Source: Valuations Office Agency, 2021. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 13 August 2021
Labour market in Camden The overall employment rate in Camden is relatively low and the economic inactivity rate relatively high in comparison with London and England & Wales. The main reason for this is the large number of students living in the borough, but there are also residents that face significant barriers to accessing employment. Camden Council is working closely with partners to help address some of these barriers. Unemployment, by the hybrid JSA/Universal Credit measure the Claimant Count, had risen over 2019 and into 2020, but increased massively due to COVID-19. Recent months have shown a gradual fall. Unemployment is higher for certain groups and the Council is actively seeking to address particular issues, such as people with mental and other health issues. While the majority of Camden residents are highly educated, there are still too many residents with no or low qualifications that are increasingly disadvantaged in a high skills economy. National research has shown that the pandemic has affected some sectors more than others, with the hospitality sector taking a particularly hard hit, suggesting that the large hospitality sector in Camden will have suffered. Employment Fewer Camden residents are in work as a proportion of the working age population than in the country as a whole. Detailed 2011 Census data showed that Camden’s employment rate was lower than the average for London or England & Wales, and was among the lowest in London. The Annual Population Survey provides up-to-date estimates. According to the Annual Population Survey, the estimated employment rate in Camden was 69.6% in 2020 Q4, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter, 3.0 percentage points lower than its peak at 72.6% in 2020 Q1 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the same quarter last year. The Camden rate appears low when compared to Central London (76.2%), Greater London (75.3%) and Great Britain (75.4%). See Figure 4 below. However, the wide confidence intervals experienced by the APS data (Camden has one of the widest in London) make comparisons between areas and over time difficult18. Despite the initial observation of the estimates, once the confidence intervals are taken into account, it can be said with some statistical certainty that in the latest quarter the Camden employment rate is not significantly different to Central or Greater London, but is significantly lower than to the Great Britain rate. 18 Margin of error for Camden is +/-5.5% in Annual Population Survey (2020 Q4) compared to +/- 1.9% for Central London, +/-0.9% for Greater London and +/-0.2% for GB. Source: NOMIS. Note that this is the latest data. APS outputs for March 2021 have been delayed until September 2021. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 14 August 2021
Camden’s relatively low employment rate can be attributed to a large student population resident in the borough (27,600 in 2018/1919), people looking after home and family, as well as other sections of the population that face significant barriers to accessing employment. Figure 4: Employment Rate (%) APS Employment Rate (%) 80 75 70 65 60 55 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Great Britain Greater London Central London Camden Source: Office for National Statistics (Annual Population Survey) © Crown copyright, © 2021. Comparison with near and neighbouring boroughs (Westminster, Islington and Kensington & Chelsea) suggests that a low employment rate is typical for Central London. Up to 2017 Q3, all four boroughs mainly had employment rates below the average for the Central London (CLF) boroughs - ranging between 62-75%, with only Islington rising above that level20. In 2020 Q4, Camden (69.6%) has a lower rate than Islington (76.2%) and Kensington & Chelsea (72.2%), but is higher than Westminster (67.2%). However, because all have confidence intervals between +/- 5.4% and +/- 6.4%, it means that the difference between the rates is not statistically significant. These boroughs exhibit variability more likely to be associated with small APS sample size than real changes in their employment rate. The 2011 Census provided evidence that the employment rate in Camden is relatively low. The 2011 Census employment rate refers to 16-74 year olds rather than the working age population so cannot directly be compared. However, it does allow comparisons between areas – in Camden the employment rate for 16-74 year olds (including self-employed people) was 59.8% compared with 62.4% for London and 61.9% for England & Wales. It was eighth lowest amongst London boroughs. 19 Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) student record by area of term-time residence. 20 Central London First boroughs: Camden, City, Islington, Kensington & Chelsea, Lambeth, Southwark, Wandsworth and Westminster. In the last 4 quarters, only Islington’s rate (latest 75.0%) has exceeded the Central London rate (latest 76.3%). Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 15 August 2021
Median gross pay of Camden residents is higher than London. The median gross annual pay for full-time employees residing in Camden was £42,528 in 2020. Camden’s median gross annual pay is lower than for Central London (£43,309), but higher compared to Greater London (£38,592) or UK (£31,461). Average pay increased for Camden residents in 2019-2020 by 0.3%, lower than the increases for Central London (4.1%), Greater London (4.7%) or UK (3.6%)21. Figure 5: Residence-based Median Annual Pay for Full-time Work (ASHE) ASHE Residence-based Median Annual Pay for Full-time Work (£) 49,000 44,000 39,000 34,000 29,000 24,000 2008r 2009r 2010r 2011r 2012r 2013r 2014r 2015r 2016r 2017r 2018r 2019r 2020p United Kingdom Greater London Central London Camden Source: Office for National Statistics (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings) © Crown copyright, © 2020. Unemployment The unemployment statistics are currently undergoing an extended period of change. There are currently three sets of unemployment indicators at a local authority level: APS/ILO model-based estimates (survey improved with Claimant Count) Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimants only Interim 'Claimant Count' measure Combined JSA and Universal Credit APS/ILO model-based estimates The model-based estimates provide a rolling quarterly indicator of average unemployment in the year to the chosen quarter. The model includes data from the Claimant Count in order to improve the quality of the survey estimate. It provides a rate of overall unemployment by local authority, but is not broken down further by 21 Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2020, from NOMIS. Based on a sample survey of employee earnings paid via PAYE. ASHE 2020 relates to the pay period that includes 22 April 2020 - at which time approximately 8.8 million employees were furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS); the estimates include furloughed employees and are based on actual payments made to the employee from company payrolls and the hours on which this pay was calculated, which in the case of furloughed employees are their usual hours. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 16 August 2021
sex, age or area. The APS/ILO model-based estimates continue to provide a measure of unemployment, albeit, between 3 to 6 months in arrears. The ILO/APS unemployment rate in Camden has jumped from an all-time-low of 4.1% in 2020 Q3 to 5.3% in 2020 Q4. The change in direction is apparent for central London, Greater London and Great Britain rates following almost a decade of falling rates since the last recession – see Figure 6 below. The most rapid increase is the central London change at +1.7 percentage points, with the Camden change +1.2 points, Greater London change +1.0 points and Great Britain change at +0.3 points. Figure 6: Model-based unemployment rate APS 'Model-based' ILO Unemployment Rate (%) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Great Britain Greater London Central London Camden Source: Office for National Statistics (Annual Population Survey) © Crown copyright, © 2021. JSA claimant unemployment JSA unemployment data counts the number of claimants by age, sex, duration and ethnicity, to small areas. The JSA count will continue to be published despite its decline as people are moved onto Universal Credit, though there will always be a rump of JSA claimants. As a result, the JSA indicator alone has become mostly irrelevant, such that at June 2021, JSA accounted for just 8% of the total Claimant Count (JSA and UC combined). For this reason, the analysis of JSA has been removed from this bulletin, though the data is still recorded in the accompanying databook. Although continuing to report on the JSA statistics in the databook, extreme caution is advised due to the very small proportion JSA comprises of the total Claimant Count. Figure 7 below demonstrates the total Claimant Count and the diminishing JSA element for Camden and Central London boroughs. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 17 August 2021
Figure 7: Comparison of JSA claimants with Claimant Count Claimant Count vs. JSA 14,000 120,000 12,000 100,000 Central London 10,000 80,000 8,000 Camden 60,000 6,000 40,000 4,000 2,000 20,000 0 0 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Camden (Claimant Count) Camden (JSA) Central London (Claimant Count) Central London (JSA) Source: Office for National Statistics/DWP, © Crown copyright, 2021. Claimant Count The interim Claimant Count is intended to make allowance for changes in the benefits system combines counts of JSA and Universal Credit claimants who are unemployed but seeking work. Camden claimants started to be moved onto Universal Credit from March 2016, but its introduction to other London boroughs and other areas has been piecemeal. As the process continues, there are fewer and fewer JSA claimants and correspondingly more Universal Credit claimants. To help overcome the difficulties of counting from two different series (JSA and Universal Credit), DWP has calculated the interim Claimant Count measure from January 2013, prior to the introduction of Universal Credit. However, the Claimant Count has also been affected by changes in Government policy resulting in a broader span of claimants being required to look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance. Claimant Count is the most reliable measure of claimant unemployment going forward, but is limited to a breakdown by sex and age – crucially, there is no breakdown by duration or ethnicity. A further complication to making comparisons between areas is that GLA no longer (not since 2015) calculate rates for the interim Claimant Count series as it did for JSA, based on estimates of the economically active population to ward level22. Therefore, comparison with other areas is very difficult because the economically active population size is affected by higher numbers of students (typically not economically active) and others not economically active, such as those looking after home/family and long-term sick. 22 Excluding economically active students. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 18 August 2021
The Claimant Count shows that claimant unemployment23 had been rising over the 18 months prior to COVID-19, from 2,705 in September 2018, increasing to 4,315 by March 2020. Between March 2020 and March 2021, Camden experienced a huge increase in the Claimant Count of +7,375 (+171%) to 11,690 directly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar large increases have been experienced in Central London (+161%), Greater London (+172%) and England & Wales (+114%). Some of the increase is likely also to have been driven by the migration of people onto Universal Credit – this is because under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under JSA - but most of the increase March 2021-March 2021 is down to COVID-19. Since March 2021, Claimant Count has been gently falling-off, reducing to 10,215 by June 20121 (-1,475; -12.6%) as COVID-19 restrictions have started to relax. Slightly larger falls have been experienced by central London (-13.4%), Greater London (-13.5% and England & Wales (-14.5%) over the same period. However, the phasing out and expected end of furlough and other government support could lead to a further surge in unemployment in Camden and across the country in the coming months. The level of sustained and long-term unemployment remains a key concern for the Council. Economic inactivity/worklessness Camden has a higher proportion of economically inactive24 people than Central/Greater London or nationally. The Annual Population Survey (APS) estimates that 26.6% of the Camden working age population were economically inactive in 2020 Q425. In Camden, higher levels of economic inactivity are contributed to by large numbers of students26 and those looking after home/family. The economic inactivity rate since 2015 has mostly been below 30%. As with the employment rate, small sample size in the APS and wide confidence intervals make fluctuations more likely, and make firm comparisons with other London boroughs problematic. Camden’s economic inactivity rate (26.6%) is higher than Central London (18.3%), Greater London (19.9%) and Great Britain (20.9%). Camden's inactivity rate is 8.3 percentage points higher than the Central London average. See Fig.8 below. 23 Source: DWP Claimant Count, from NOMIS. 24 Economically inactive people are those of working age who are not actively looking for a job for a number of reasons e.g. caring responsibilities, disability, studying or retired. Full-time students may be classified as economically active but the vast majority are economically inactive. 25 Source: Annual Population Survey (ONS). Margin of error for 2020 Q4 is +/-5.3%, from NOMIS. 26 27,615 higher education students live in Camden, more than in any other London borough. Higher education students, by residence, 2018-19. Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 19 August 2021
Figure 8: Economic Inactivity Rate (%) APS Economic Inactivity Rate (%) 40 30 20 10 0 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Great Britain Greater London Central London Camden Source: Office for National Statistics (Annual Population Survey) © Crown copyright, © 2021. Economic inactivity was also measured in the 2011 Census, based on people aged 16-74: 32% of Camden people were economically inactive compared to 28% in London and 30% in England & Wales. This supports the findings of the Annual Population Survey - Camden has relatively higher rates of economic inactivity27. ‘Other - not specified’, Students, Long-term sick and Looking after home/family are the main reasons for economic inactivity in Camden. The APS provides reasons given for people’s economic inactivity. In 2020 Q4, the ‘Other (not specified)’ reasons28 were the highest, accounting for over a quarter (27.7%) of all economic inactivity. The rate has risen sharply in the last four quarters - timing that coincides with COVID-19. Of the traditional reasons for economic inactivity, being a student is the most important inactivity factor in Camden, covering 24.6% of inactivity – though now lower than Central London (30%), London (32%) and GB (27%). Other factors are Long-term sick (20.7%); Looking after home/family (14.3%); Temporary sick (9.2%) and being Retired (3.5%)29. Camden has a higher proportion of economically inactive people who stated they would like to have a job (28%) than Central London (27%), but higher than Greater London (23%) or Great Britain (22%)30. See Fig. 9 below. 27 Source: 2011 Census labour market tables (ONS) available on the Open Data Camden website. 28 Source: Annual Population Survey, 2020 Q4 (ONS). Camden margins of error for the ‘Other (not specified)’ category is +/- 10.9%. 29 Source: Annual Population Survey, 2020 Q4 (ONS). Camden margins of error: Student (+/- 10.5%); Long-term sick (+/- 9.8%); Looking after home/family (+/- 8.5%). 30 Source: Annual Population Survey, 2020 Q4 (ONS). Camden margin of error is +/- 11.7%. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 20 August 2021
Figure 9: Reasons for Economic Inactivity Reason for Economic Inactivity (%): December 2020 13.0 Other 16.2 21.0 27.7 13.6 Retired 6.9 5.0 3.5 0.7 Discouraged 0.7 1.4 0.0 23.6 Long-term sick 17.4 17.4 20.7 2.0 Temporary sick 2.7 5.6 9.2 20.1 Looking after family/home 24.3 19.6 14.3 27.0 Student 31.9 30.1 24.6 0 10 20 30 40 Great Britain Greater London Central London (CLF) boroughs Camden Source: Office for National Statistics (Annual Population Survey) © Crown copyright, © 2021. The economic inactivity rate is slightly higher for Camden women than for men, with a gap of 2 percentage points. In 2020 Q4 the APS inactivity rate for women in Camden was higher for women than for men, with 27.6% of women inactive compared with 25.6% of men31. Unemployment, economic inactivity/worklessness: key issues The Claimant Count is a hybrid of JSA and Universal Credit claimants. The nature of measuring local unemployment has changed The Government’s phased transfer of people to Universal Credit (UC) from Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) has had an impact on counts of ‘unemployment’ at the local level. For JSA it was inevitable that claimant numbers would fall as people were moved to Universal Credit, though it will never reach zero - there will always be a handful of JSA claimants. Universal Credit was introduced in in Camden in March 2016. Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance. As Universal Credit Full Service is rolled out, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise. Though JSA numbers are still being released, the official (but interim) measure of ‘Claimant Count’ is released monthly by DWP, which is a combination of JSA claimants and people on Universal Credit who are not working. Claimant Count (numbers of claimants, but not rates*) are published in the linked databook. * GLA no longer produce estimates of the economically active population, therefore, it is no longer possible to have the claimant count expressed as a rate, i.e. unemployment as a percentage of the economically active population (less students). For more information, see Annex on page 28. 31 Source: Annual Population Survey, 2020 Q4 (ONS). Margins of error are +/- 7.6% and 7.5% respectively. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 21 August 2021
The Claimant Count measure of unemployment fell considerably between March 2013 and December 2015. Stabilising during 2016-2018, it started to rise again in 2019 and early 2020. The impact of COVID-19 saw it rise substantially into 2021, though numbers for the present have peaked. The Claimant Count fell in Camden between March 2013 (5,010) and December 2015 (2,595). The number fluctuated over 2016-2018, but had increased to 4,315 by March 2020. Between March 2020 and March 2021, Camden experienced a huge increase in the Claimant Count of +7,375 (+171%) to 11,690 directly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar large increases have been experienced in Central London (+161%), Greater London (+172%) and England & Wales (+114%). Some of the increase is likely also to have been driven by the migration of people onto Universal Credit – this is because under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under JSA - but most of the increase March 2021-March 2021 is down to COVID-19. Since March 2021, Claimant Count has been gently falling-off, reducing to 10,215 by June 20121 (-1,475; -12.6%). Slightly larger falls have been experienced by central London (-13.4%), Greater London (-13.5% and England & Wales (-14.5%) over the same period. Figure 10: Claimant Count Claimant Count: Camden 14,000 12,000 11,690 11,220 10,000 10,875 10,305 10,215 8,000 Camden 6,000 5,010 4,000 4,530 4,315 4,255 4,140 4,030 3,855 3,840 3,730 3,395 3,375 3,200 2,000 2,960 2,875 2,865 2,805 2,775 2,770 2,755 2,745 2,710 2,705 2,705 2,700 2,700 2,690 2,655 2,645 2,595 0 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Office for National Statistics (DWP Claimant Count) © Crown copyright 2021. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 22 August 2021
Making sense of youth unemployment at a local level The Claimant Count is currently the most reliable measure of youth unemployment at a local level When politicians and the media talk about large numbers of young people out of work nationally, they are using the APS model-based unemployment estimate figures. However, the model-based unemployment is not available by age at a local level, e.g. London boroughs. The Annual Population Survey sample is too small to provide a reliable figure for youth unemployment. The APS model-based estimates are much higher than the Claimant Count numbers in large part because they include students who are looking for work (and therefore meet the ILO definition mentioned above). While these students are competing in the labour market in the same way as everyone else, they are not “unemployed” in the same way as those who are not in full-time education. This is particularly an issue in Camden, where there is a large number of full-time students. Many labour market analysts believe that excluding students in full-time education looking for work gives a better indication of the scale of the problem of youth unemployment. The Claimant Count excludes full-time students, as they are not eligible to claim JSA or Universal Credit. The long-term trend of falling numbers and proportions of young unemployed has seen claimants aged 16-24 bottom out by the end of 2017 and increase steadily over 2018, 2019 and into 2020. The impact of COVID-19 saw an immediate and large increase that reached a peak in February 2021. In March 2013 the Claimant Count of young people aged 16-24 was 845 (17% of all claimants) and decreased to 320 (11.6% of claimants) by June 2018. The number and proportion of young claimants then increased steadily over 2018, 2019 and into 2020 – by March 2020, reaching 670 (15.5% of claimants). The impact of COVID-19 was immediate. Between March and April 2020, the number of young claimants jumped by 380 to 1,050 (up 57%) and continued to rise until peaking at 1,940 in February 2021. It has slowly decreased to 1,670 in June 2021. The proportion of claimants aged 16-24 has been rising too, reaching 16.7% in December 2020, though in the latest quarter to June 2021 has fallen back slightly to 16.0%. This compares with lower rates for Central London (14.7%) and Greater London (15.7%), but lower than England & Wales (18.5%). See Fig.10 below. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period (March 2020), the number of unemployed young people in June 2021 is now 965 (+144%) in Camden, compared with similar increases for Central London (146%) and Greater London (144%) – these rates of increase are much higher compared to those for England & Wales generally (78%)32. 32 Source: DWP Claimant Count, from NOMIS. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 23 August 2021
Figure 11: Claimant Count: Proportion of Younger Claimants (%) Claimant Count Aged 16-24 (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 England & Wales Greater London Central London Camden Source: Office for National Statistics (DWP Claimant Count) © Crown copyright 2021. There are concentrations of unemployment in particular parts of Camden: the highest Claimant Count numbers are in St Pancras & Somers Town, Kilburn and Regent’s Park wards. Wards with the highest Claimant Count in June 2021 were St Pancras & Somers Town (990), Kilburn (825) and Regent’s Park (725). Wards with the fewest claimants were Hampstead Town (205), and Frognal and Fitzjohns (255)33. All wards have seen decreases in the last quarter (to June 2021). Over the COVID-19 period, since March 2020, the change in Claimant Count in Camden to June 2021 is +5,900 (+137%) – over that period, all wards have seen large increases, but have peaked in the spring of 2021 and are now lower. The majority of the change is a direct result of COVID-19. Wards with the largest increases over the period were St Pancras and Somers Town (+560), Kilburn (+450), and Regent’s Park (+450). The smallest increases were seen in Hampstead Town (+130) and Frognal and Fitzjohns (+160). The Claimant Count is further broken down geographically to Lower-layer Super Output Area (LSOA). This data is best expressed as a map. Fig.12 below shows the Claimant Count number by Camden LSOA, which shows the concentration of unemployment-related claimants in particular parts of Camden, including Somers Town/Regent’s Park; Camden Town/Haverstock/Gospel Oak; Kentish Town/ Cantelowes; Kilburn/West Hampstead; Highgate; and King’s Cross/Holborn. 33 Source: Camden analysis of DWP data from NOMIS. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 24 August 2021
Figure 12: Map of Claimant Count by LSOA Source: Office for National Statistics (DWP Claimant Count) © Crown copyright 2021. The number of older claimants (aged 50+) has been increasing since early 2015, but the increase has grown substantially between March 2020 and June 2021, mostly a direct result of COVID-19. Proportionally, people aged 50+ comprise over a quarter of the Claimant Count in Camden. The number of older claimants aged 50+ has been increasing since bottoming out in mid-2015 (at 665 claimants). In March 2020 the number of claimants aged 50+ had risen to 1,270. However, by June 2021, with the effects of COVID-19, this has further increased to 2,720 – an increase of 1,450 (+114%). This increase compares to a 98% rise for Central London, a 112% rise for London and an 80% rise in England & Wales. By proportion, the number of claimants aged 50+ peaked at 35% in September 2018, but has fallen over subsequent quarters and accounted for 27% of claimants in June 2021. In March 2021, in Camden, there were more male claimants aged 50+ (1,660) than female claimants (1,360), 55% and 45% respectively. Over the year to March 2021, the number of male and female claimants has grown by 925 and 820 respectively, but the change is a higher percentage increase for women (152%) than for men (126%). Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 25 August 2021
Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) claimant numbers in Camden peaked at 10,000 in May 2015 since when they have been declining. Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) replaced Incapacity Benefit and Income Support paid on the grounds of incapacity for new claims from 27 October 2008. In February 2021 (latest figures) there were 8,177 ESA claimants34 resident in Camden, a decrease of 124 (-1.5%) from the previous quarter and a decrease of 409 (-4.8%) over the year. By ESA phase, in February 2021, 88% of claims were assessed as support group (people with the severest conditions); and 8% for the work group (people deemed suitable for work in the short- to medium-term), with the remainder still being assessed within the system. The proportions are similar for comparator geographies: Central London (87% and 8%); Greater London (86% and 8%); and England & Wales (81% and 11%) respectively. The proportion within the support group has grown over time, for Camden from 67% in February 2016 to 88% in February 2021 – with similar changes in London and nationally. There has been a corresponding, diminishing, effect found with the proportion in the work group over time. Skills and Qualifications Camden residents in work are much more likely to be in high skilled jobs than elsewhere in London. A similar proportion of Camden residents work in Professional Occupations (34%) than do in Central London (34%); but more than in Greater London (30%) or in England & Wales (23%) according to the latest data available (Q4 2020) 35. For Associate Professional & Technical Occupations there is a similar proportion in Camden (21%) and Central London (22%), with Greater London (19%) and England & Wales (16%)36. For Managers, Directors and Senior Officials, Camden (18%), compares with Central London 15%, Greater London 13% and England & Wales 12%)37. Fewer Camden people work in Administrative/ Secretarial Occupations (3%), Skilled Trades (8%) and Elementary Occupations (5%), reflecting that Camden and London’s economies have moved towards higher skilled occupations. The Annual Population Survey analysis continues to echo information from the 2011 Census, both in terms of the actual percentages for each group (32% for Professional Occupations, 22% for Associate Professional & Technical occupations and 14% for Managers, Directors and Senior Officials) and in comparison with 34 Source: DWP, from Stat-Xplore. 35 Source: Annual Population Survey, Q4 2020 (ONS). Margin of error for Camden is +/- 6.4%, from NOMIS. 36 Margin of error for Camden in Q4 2020 is +/- 5.5%. 37 Margin of error for Camden in Q4 2020 is +/- 5.1%. Camden Business and Employment Bulletin 26 August 2021
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