CBAA Check Thrust Election 2021: What's Next?
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CBAA Check Thrust
Election 2021: What’s Next?
1
1 2 3 4
Results + Party Assessing the Staying on
Current State of Performance, Sector: Government’s
Play Priorities + Who Headwinds + Radar
to Watch Tailwinds
2 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Results +
Current State of Play
3 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Electoral Results
LPC 157
2019 LPC 157 2021
Liberal 157 Liberal 159 121
CPC 121
Conservative 121 Conservative 119
BQ 32
BQ 32 BQ 32
NDP 25
NDP 24 NDP 24
Greens 3 Greens 2
GPC 3 Independent 1
Independent 1
IDP
IND 1
4 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Current state of play: 6 weeks post-election
• A slow start to the 44th parliament ▪ A gender-balanced
cabinet has been
• Ministerial offices are naming Chiefs of Staff and beginning to staff up appointed.
• The Speech From the Throne will occur on November 22 or 23 ▪ The current cabinet has
38 ministers.
• The House will be in operation for only four weeks before breaking until
January 31, 2022 ▪ New parliamentary
secretaries and
• In those four weeks we have a Speech From the Throne, the possible committee members to
passage of a second budget implementation bill, a Fall Economic follow.
Statement and the re-constitution of the Finance Committee
▪ Critics for the CPC and
the NDP have been
• A more influential NDP? announced.
▪ With Liberals and the NDP in discussions for a sturdier and longer-lasting ▪ New MPs, Ministers and
agreement for the Liberals to govern, the NDP's influence on important staff are being briefed.
guiding documents like the Throne Speech will increase compared to
more acrimonious minority parliaments of the past. ▪ Senior department
officials and PCO will act
as important advisors.
5 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
What’s coming down the line
Opening of Parliament,
Cabinet Appointments Speech from the Throne
Budget 2022
October 26th, 2021 November 22nd, 2021
Spring
Fall Economic
Statement
Premiers Meeting Late November – Early
December Parliamentary Break
October 5-7 December 20
Return of Parliament
Committee January 31, 2022
Election Day Constitution
September 20 MP Swearings-in, Parliamentary December
Secretary & Critic Appointments
End of October – Early November
Introduction of Priority Legislation
Late November – December
6 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Political Performance, Priorities, and Who to Watch 7 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Liberal Party of Canada
The Liberals finished in a similar
position to 2019, shy of a majority. They Government legislation that did not
will need the support of either the NDP pass in the last Parliament will see
or the Bloc to move legislation forward. rapid re-introduction. Bills on privacy,
broadcasting and online harms will
be on the fall legislative agenda.
The tone set by Trudeau’s victory
speech and “clear mandate”
interpretation suggests he plans to
govern as though he has a majority,
securing confidence on a case-by- Given the concentrated opposition of
case basis. the West, the Liberals will have to
emphasize balance of the economy
He does not intend to make any and the environment.
formal agreement with any party.
The next steps in ending the pandemic
will be the focus of the government in the Given the financial readiness of many
near-term, both from a public health and of the opposition parties, this minority
an economic perspective. Efforts to government is expected to last the
increase vaccinations and to help average 18-30 months before another
businesses weather a possible fourth election.
wave this winter will occupy the
government.
8 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Conservative Party of Canada
Mr. O’Toole’s legislative priorities will
largely focus on job creation,
The Conservatives won the popular strengthening anti-corruption laws and
vote for the second election in a row – establishing strong mental health
nearly sweeping Alberta and policies. He will remain one of the
Saskatchewan – but were unable to only and likely most vocal champions
make meaningful advances in Atlantic of Canada’s natural resources and
Canada, Ontario and Quebec. energy sectors in Parliament, hoping to
continue to earn the trust of Western
Canadians.
After coming up short of the Conservative's
2019 results, O'Toole will be positioning The Conservatives will control many
himself to hold on to the top job, while of the parliamentary committees in
insiders weigh the prospect of another the new session, giving them
leadership race and potential candidates increased influence on their agendas
begin to jockey for position. and opportunities to thwart or stall
government priorities.
In his day after election day remarks,
O’Toole announced a formal review will be
launched to examine what needs to be done
differently in order to win in the next general
election. Mr. O’Toole’s sales pitch to Conservative
members was that he would deliver the GTA.
At least 4 ridings across Ontario and in His performance saw a drop of one 905 seat
Alberta would have likely elected a and no breakthrough in the 416. Insiders
Conservative MP if not for the PPC, and so expect strong emphasis put on legislation to
Mr. O’Toole will feel a lot of pressure from attract key demographics in these areas.
within to address this in a meaningful way.
9 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
NDP
The NDP picked up one seat total – with
25 seats, they hold enough to prop up
the government on a vote-by-vote basis
but won’t be making a formal agreement
with the Liberals. The NDP still hold a balance of
power that will given them influence
on an issue-by-issue basis.
Will look to negotiate advances on:
▪ Implementing a wealth tax on the
ultra-rich will be Singh’s number
one priority
▪ Implementing national, universal Singh was successful in a
pharmacare and dental coverage leadership review at the NDP’s
for Canadians earning less than 2021 convention and led all
$90k leaders in likeability throughout the
▪ Ending for-profit long-term care election. Despite not making big
▪ Affordable housing gains, his leadership is safe for the
▪ Climate change moment.
▪ Cell phone and internet prices
Singh’s success will now be measured by his
ability to move the NDP’s agenda forward +
extract concessions from the Liberals.
Expect the NDP to be largely
constructive during the next parliament,
but use what leverage they have to push
their progressive vision.
10 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesBloc Québécois
The Bloc campaign gained unusual
The Bloc gained 2 additional seats, momentum after the English language
will see Mr. Blanchet likely remain as debate where Mr. Blanchet was asked
a Leader, and a continuation of 3rd about certain laws in Quebec that some
party status.. consider discriminatory. This ignited a
fleury of news stories and comments by
other politicians, including Premier
Legault. It is likely this will remain part of
the discourse surrounding the Bloc.
The party’s single focus on promoting
Quebec interests was not enough to hold
the balance of power that Mr. Blanchet
spoke frequently of.
Blanchet has committed to cooperate on
any issue that is in the interest of Quebec In 2019, Blanchet tried to position
and expects Parliament to work – though the Bloc as an extension of the
it is not his party’s responsibility. CAQ Provincial Government.
Premier Legault’s endorsement of
the Conservative Party in Quebec,
came as a surprise to Blanchet
who was counting on his party’s
The clear mandate the Bloc received association with the popular CAQ.
means there will be no compromise on:
▪ Any plan to move oil across the province
▪ Language rights
▪ Quebec’s commitment to the secularism
of public institutions
11 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesExpected Early Priorities
The minority Liberal government will look
to:
▪ Finish the fight against COVID-19 and address
issues in the healthcare system.
▪ Reach childcare agreements with all
provinces, increase federal paid sick days, and
complete affordable housing projects.
▪ Reintroduce bills from the previous parliament that
died when the election was called, including Bill C-
10 and the Ban on Conversion Therapy.
▪ Implement their ambitious commitments to the
environment and climate change. Including
strengthening the Canadian Environmental
Protection Act, putting emission reduction targets
into legislation, and implementing the Just Transition
Act.
▪ Follow through on promises pertaining to Indigenous
reconciliation and racial justice, such as police
practice reforms and the $14 billion in funding to
various programs for Indigenous peoples and
communities.
12 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesPolitical Environment
▪ Political focus will remain on modest
legislative agendas, strategic consensus
building, greater co-operation with the
provinces.
▪ While another federal election likely within
one or two years, the NDP and Liberals may
reach an agreement on support that is longer
lasting.
▪ Regional divisions/polarities will remain a
factor, specifically an increasingly distressed
Alberta and Western Canada.
▪ Federal/provincial tensions are still
heightened over health care transfers
(funding).
▪ Ontario and Quebec will have elections in
2022, meaning a surge in political activity
and an emphasis on the importance of public
opinion for Conservative and Liberal
branding.
13 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesOmar Alghabra – Minister of Transport
Alghabra is passionate about
In a cabinet shuffle that was a big empowering new Canadians
shake-up, leaving Alghabra at and this as an issue on which
Transport demonstrates the PM’s trust you might find common ground
in him to execute on the file
Transport holds many of the key
Representing Mississauga Centre – policy levers alongside other
home to Pearson International – departments, so collaboration will be
since 2015, Alghabra is familiar with key
the aviation sector and topline
issues
Omar will keep his Chief of Staff, Mike
Maka and retain much of his other staff
creating continuity in the office. There
is much turnover across other offices,
so again, this demonstrates the trust
PMO has in Omar and his team
14 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesJean-Yves Duclos, Minister of Health
Jean-Yves Duclos is brand new
to the health portfolio. His most Related to his interest in policy,
recent cabinet position was Duclos is numbers-driven and can
President of the Treasury Board be persuaded by compelling data
A former economist, Jean-Yves
Duclos is known to be very policy-
minded – nicknamed "the professor" Overseeing the Public Health
by his Cabinet colleagues, who Agency of Canada, Duclos will be
regard him highly key to engage with on issues
related to airport re-opening
It is yet TBD how Duclos will split
responsibilities with Carolyn
Bennett, the Associate Minister
15 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesRegional Development Agencies (RDAs)
Pascale St-Onge, Helena Jaczek, Harjit Sajjan, Ginette Dan Vandal, Patty Hajdu,
Quebec Southern Pacific Petitpas Taylor, The North + Northern
Ontario Canada Atlantic Canada Prairies Ontario
• Key voices for regional economic development
• Will be responsible for programs such as the Regional Air Transportation
Initiative + the Aerospace Regional Recovery Initiative
© Hill+Knowlton Strategies
16Melissa Lantsman – Shadow Minister for Transport
Despite being a rookie MP,
expect Melissa to make a
Representing Thornhill, Melissa is one of big impact and rise quickly
few Conservatives elected in the in the through the ranks.
metro-Toronto region.
As a former government relations
professional, expect Melissa to be
keen to engage with stakeholders,
but ensure you come prepared.
Melissa is a former staffer with Joe
Oliver and a former war roomer for
Doug Ford.
If you’re looking to make an impact
with Melissa, know the issue
closest to her heart is mental
health.
Melissa is a former Vice President of Public
Affairs at H+K and a former political pundit.
17 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesAssessing the
Sector: Tailwinds +
Headwinds
18 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesAssessing the aviation sector: Tailwinds
✓ Attention: The pandemic has shone a spotlight on how essential aviation is
to Canada’s economy and the challenges the sector faces
✓ Alignment: Both government and the aviation sector are aligned on the need
to take action on climate change – this presents significant opportunities for
collaboration
✓ Funding: Government is delivering funds adjacent to aviation and that
indirectly benefit the sector, like the Regional Air Transportation Initiative +
the Aerospace Regional Recovery Initiative
19 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesAssessing the aviation sector: Headwinds
X Sector reputation
X The Luxury Tax
X International flights + regional airports
X Clarity on vaccine mandates + enforcement
X Falling off of government’s radar
20 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesStaying on
Government’s
Radar
21 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesStaying on government’s radar to advance sector issues
• Leverage provincial and federal cooperation,
particularly in Quebec
• Leverage departmental champions – they are
briefing ministers presently
• Activate your local MPs – in a minority
parliament MPs become much more powerful
• Working with the opposition and with the
Senate
• Activate interested parliamentarians – H+K is
currently scoping out the establishment of an
aviation caucus
• Build public support – cultivate a ‘halo effect’
• Sustainability | Contributions to vulnerable
populations
• Policy initiatives that address the urban/rural
divide (e.g. Nutrition North)
22 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies23 © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
Appendix I:
Minority
Government
Opportunities
24 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesWorking in a Minority Parliament
Power is at the centre, but the opposition wields significant influence. What that might mean in
practice:
▪ Broad directions will still be set by ‘the Leadership’ – PMO, key advisors, key ministers – but
minority parliaments offer more opportunity for legislation to be further shaped and ▪ Building out relationships
amended by the opposition. wider, across parties, and
across chambers.
Does one party hold a ‘balance of power?’ ▪ Crafting targeted
messaging that can
▪ In minority parliaments the Opposition is much more powerful and depending on the
composition of seats and formal or informal coalitions, one party may hold the ‘balance of
appeal to specific parties,
power,’ wherein their support or opposition for legislation will be essential to its passing. including opposition.
▪ More attention and
Committees take on an enhanced role. investment of time in
committees – monitoring,
▪ Committees are much more powerful in minority parliaments as their leadership (Chairs) submitting briefs,
and agendas are largely driven by the opposition. This allows them to invite Ministers and appearing as witness,
senior staff as witnesses, compel government documents, slow the progress of legislation
and drive media narratives based on testimony. etc.
▪ Consider how individual
Individual MPs are more influential. MPs can be activated, to
either act as champions
▪ In minority parliaments, individual MPs become more influential, and the prospect of for your issues, or to
passing private members’ bills is enhanced. sponsor a private
member’s bill.
An enhanced role for the Senate.
▪ Identifying and
▪ The Senate has been a key driver in the passing of legislation and will continue to be in a leveraging cross-party
minority context. Understanding the relationships that shape its power structures is crucial. caucuses.
25 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesMinority Opportunities
▪ Opposition can extract
concessions from
government as
Stakeholders will need to consider conditions for support.
▪ Deals will be
relationships with opposition as equally brokered. Opposition
important as those with government. parties will partner on
an issue-by-issue basis
to obstruct government
and the government
will partner in select
Opposition could be a significant ally circumstances,
(the reverse is equally true) – they will
compromising to push
legislation forward.
amend government legislation which is ▪ Budget bills will
continue to be omnibus
an important opportunity for which makes the pre-
budget process that
stakeholders. much more important.
▪ If the budget is
defeated, so is the
government.
26 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesParliamentary Committees
▪ In a minority government,
there are more Opposition
than government MPs in
the House; the same will
apply in committees.
▪ Opposition will control
many committees and will
influence the agenda.
▪ Having effective control in
committee, the Opposition
can choose witnesses,
pass motions, introduce
subject matter studies and
amend legislation. It is also
worth noting that
committees can compel
government documents
(emails, briefing notes,
correspondence) as they
see fit.
▪ Committee reports will
often be at odds with
government policy.
27 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesPrivate Member’s Bills
▪ Many government MPs
are not eligible to
sponsor PMBs so the
Opposition has
mathematically 2-3x
opportunity to sponsor a
PMB than does a
government back-
bencher.
▪ The right PMB can be
passed easily in a
minority government,
especially if it can do two
things:
– Pre-empt the
government’s own
legislation on the
same topic.
– Wedge the
government on an
issue they are
reluctant to act on.
28 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesRole of the Bureaucracy
▪ Senior public officials
have already begun
working on interpreting
platform commitments
into government policy.
▪ Departments need to
be prepared to respond
rapidly to Opposition
amendments and
requests for
documents from
committees.
▪ Opposition will expect
to have increased
access to ministers,
staff and briefings on
issues of interest.
▪ Continued readiness
for potential change in
government or
election.
29 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesPotential for Instability
▪ Votes on the Speech
from the Thone,
Estimates, and the
Budget are inherently
votes of confidence.
▪ For leaders, internal
party leadership
reviews will present
an opportunity for
disappointed party
members to organize
against their
continued role.
30 © Hill+Knowlton StrategiesYou can also read
