BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT - The Institute of International and European Affairs

Page created by Lawrence Sullivan
 
CONTINUE READING
BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT - The Institute of International and European Affairs
BREXIT BRIEF
         BRIEF
                                        BREXIT

 Brexit Brief Issue 49: 04 October 2018

Introduction
Brexit Brief provides up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK-EU negotiations, and brings
together relevant statements and policy positions from key players in Ireland, the UK and EU.
The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA’s UK Project Group –
including commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports – which are highlighted on the Institute’s website.
(www.iiea.com)

Section One: State of Play                                       The Brexit negotiations are entering their decisive
                                                                 phase. Various scenarios are still possible today, but
Informal Salzburg Summit                                         I would like to stress that some of Prime Minister
                                                                 May’s proposals from Chequers indicate a positive
An informal meeting of the European Council took place           evolution in the UK’s approach as well as a will
                                                                 to minimise the negative effects of Brexit. By this
in Salzburg on 19-20 September 2018, at the invitation
                                                                 I mean, among other things, the readiness to
of the Austrian Council Presidency. The agenda for               cooperate closely in the area of security and foreign
discussion set by President Donald Tusk highlighted what         policy.
he called ‘the migration blame game’ and the EU efforts          On other issues, such as the Irish question, or the
to intensify cooperation with Africa and the Arab States.        framework for economic cooperation, the UK’s
                                                                 proposals will need to be reworked and further
Ahead of the meeting President Donald Tusk wrote                 negotiated. Today there is perhaps more hope, but
                                                                 there is surely less and less time. Therefore, every
to the participating Heads of State or Government,
                                                                 day that is left, we must use for talks. I would like
promulgating a positive view of the Chequers proposals,          to finalise them still this autumn. This is why, at
indicating that the proposals represents a positive shift in     tomorrow’s meeting of the twenty-seven, I will
the UK stance, while emphasising that serious progress on        propose calling an additional summit around mid-
                                                                 November.
the Irish border issue and the framework for the future
economic partnership need to be made:                          At dinner on 19 September, Prime Minister Theresa
                                                               May was invited to speak to the leaders of the EU27
                                                               on her Chequers proposals for progress on the Brexit

                                                                                  BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

negotiations. She addressed the gathering for about ten          Following the lunch, President Donald Tusk indicated
minutes and was reported as quoting from the text of             that he had informed the British Prime Minister of the
an op-ed which she had contributed to Die Welt on the            opinion of the Council that the Chequers blueprint for
previous day (see below). President Donald Tusk spoke of         Brexit will not work in its present form. At the conclusion
the Prime Minister’s approach as “surprisingly tough and         of the meeting, he addressed a press conference,
in fact uncompromising.” There was no debate.                    highlighting three main points from the meeting: the
                                                                 issue of the backstop; clarity in the political declaration;
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Prime Minister Theresa May            and the timetable for the remaining negotiations:
met over breakfast in Salzburg on the following morning
to discuss the state of progress in the Brexit negotiations.       First, we reconfirmed that there will be no
                                                                   Withdrawal Agreement without a solid, operational
After the meeting, the Taoiseach said that the Prime
                                                                   and legally binding Irish backstop. And we continue
Minister had promised to bring forward proposals on the            to fully support Michel Barnier in his efforts to find
backstop but indicated that “we haven’t seen anything in           such a model.
writing.”                                                          Second, we agreed to have a joint political
                                                                   declaration that provides as much clarity as
The Prime Minister was understood to have expressed                possible on the future relations. Everybody shared
doubts about the possibility of concluding discussions             the view that while there are positive elements in
                                                                   the Chequers proposal, the suggested framework
by the time of the scheduled October meeting of the
                                                                   for economic cooperation will not work. Not least
European Council. The Taoiseach emphasised the                     because it risks undermining the Single Market.
importance of sticking to the October deadline: “I would
                                                                   Third, we also discussed the timetable for further
like to have the deal agreed in principle in October and           negotiations. The moment of truth for Brexit
formalise it at a special summit in mid-November.” He              negotiations will be the October European Council.
spoke of willingness to compromise, but added that there           In October we expect maximum progress and results
                                                                   in the Brexit talks. Then we will decide whether
could be no compromise on four principles: a transition
                                                                   conditions are there to call an extraordinary summit
period; protecting the Common Travel Area and the                  in November to finalise and formalise the deal.
rights of Northern Ireland citizens after Brexit and having
a legally operable backstop.                                     Theresa May’s Downing Street Speech

                                                                 Prime Minister Theresa May spoke at Downing Street
The firm Irish position was that, while the border issue
                                                                 on the day following the Salzburg summit, underlining
might be solved in the future EU-UK relationship, they
                                                                 the fact that, despite the progress made to date in the
couldn’t take the chance of the border becoming a pawn
                                                                 negotiations, there were two big issues where the two sides
in the trade talks. The backstop should be seen as simply
                                                                 remained a long way apart: the economic relationship
a guarantee that whatever happened in the upcoming
                                                                 after departure from the EU and the terms of the backstop
talks there would be no hard border. The outcome of
                                                                 to ensure that there will not be a hard border on the island
the Varadkar-May breakfast meeting was reported as
                                                                 of Ireland.
‘reverberating’ around the summit with the appearance
that the British were stalling for time on the Northern          She described EU options on the economic relationship
Ireland backstop question.                                       – membership of the European Economic Area or a basic
                                                                 free trade agreement with Northern Ireland effectively
Having dealt with the agenda items involving the EU28 , the
                                                                 remaining in the Customs Union – as making a mockery
leaders of the EU27 devoted their working lunch to Brexit.
                                                                 of the referendum outcome: “Creating any form of

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest               The referendum was the largest democratic exercise
of the UK would not respect that Northern Ireland is               this country has ever undergone. To deny its
an integral part of the United Kingdom, in line with the
                                                                   legitimacy or frustrate its result threatens public
                                                                   trust in our democracy. That is why for over two
principle of consent as set out clearly in the Belfast/Good        years I have worked day and night to deliver a
Friday Agreement. It is something I will never agree to            deal that sees the UK leave the EU. I have worked
[…]”                                                               to bring people with me even when that has not
                                                                   always seemed possible. No one wants a good
Referring to the UK proposals, as set out in the Chequers          deal more than me. But the EU should be clear:
                                                                   I will not overturn the result of the referendum.
plan, she asserted that the EU had said that they would            Nor will I break up my country. We need serious
undermine the single market but had not explained how              engagement on resolving the two big problems in
in any detail nor made any counter-proposal. This had              the negotiations. We stand ready.
resulted in an impasse.
                                                                 President Donald Tusk’s Response
On the Northern Ireland backstop, the Prime Minister
                                                                 The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk,
indicated her opposition to the EU backstop and stated
                                                                 issued a Statement in response to the Prime Minister’s
that a good future relationship between the UK and
                                                                 press conference, indicating that good relations between
the EU depends on mutual respect in negotiations: “the
                                                                 the EU and UK should be prioritised. “Out of respect to
EU is proposing to achieve this [an invisible border] by
                                                                 Theresa May”, he referred to Chequers as “a step in the
effectively keeping Northern Ireland in the Customs
                                                                 right direction”, and referred to his remarks to the EU
Union. As I have already said, that is unacceptable, we
                                                                 27 leaders before the conference, in which he highlighted
will never agree to it. It would mean breaking up our
                                                                 Chequers as a positive evolution in the stance of the UK
country.” She indicated to her intention to set out the UK
                                                                 negotiating team. In light of these comments, President
alternative “that preserves the integrity of the UK” but
                                                                 Tusk expressed disappointment in the “surprisingly tough
without a timeline. She stated that “neither side should
                                                                 and uncompromising” UK stance presented “before and
demand the unacceptable of the other”, and reiterated her
                                                                 during the Salzburg meeting.” He reported that the EU
commitment to respecting the result of the referendum.
                                                                 27 leaders had expressed confidence in Michel Barnier,
She emphasised that a good future relationship depended
                                                                 and continued commitment to protecting the integrity of
on respect in the negotiations: “Throughout this process
                                                                 the Single Market and ensuring a workable backstop.
I have treated the EU with nothing but respect. The UK
expects the same. A good relationship at the end of this           We studied the Chequers proposals in all seriousness.
process depends on it […] we now need to hear from the             The results of our analysis have been known to
EU what the real issues are and what their alternative is so       the British side in every detail for many weeks.
                                                                   After intensive consultations with Member States,
that we can discuss them. Until we do, we cannot make
                                                                   we decided that for the good of the negotiations,
progress. In the meantime we must and will continue the            and out of respect for the efforts of PM May, we
work of preparing ourselves for no deal.”                          will treat the Chequers plan as a step in the right
                                                                   direction.[..] The UK stance presented just before
The Prime Minister concluded with remarks on the Brexit            and during the Salzburg meeting was surprisingly
referendum and the importance of protecting the integrity
                                                                   tough and in fact uncompromising. The response
                                                                   of the EU27 leaders was to reiterate our trust in
of the UK:                                                         chief negotiator Michel Barnier and to reiterate our
                                                                   position on the integrity of the Single Market and
                                                                   the Irish backstop. While understanding the logic

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

  of the negotiations, I remain of the UK and a true             The complexity of the issues being negotiated and
  admirer of PM May.                                             the depth of the divisions in UK politics leads many
                                                                 commentators to suggest that Britain is not ready for what
Section Two: The Evolving Debate
                                                                 lies ahead over the six months before Brexit Day. This
                                                                 invites the conclusion that the only sensible approach for
Fallout
                                                                 the government is to invoke the provisions for stopping
Salzburg left the Prime Minister with deep problems at           the clock on Article 50 to extend the time for negotiation
home and abroad. With the EU view that key aspects of            and for to provide for reconsideration of options.
Chequers were unworkable and the hard-Brexit factions
in the Tory party celebrating her ‘humiliation’, the road        Alternative Paths
to the Conservative Party Conference looked seriously
                                                                 Two counter-proposals to Chequers emerged in the
challenging.
                                                                 lead up to the Conservative Party Conference, from
                                                                 the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) and from Boris
An Observer editorial summed up Theresa May’s position
                                                                 Johnson in a 4,600 word version of his weekly Telegraph
and the EU response on “cherrypicking”, the Single
                                                                 article.
Market and the Irish backstop:

  From the start, EU leaders insisted no cherrypicking           Described by Jacob Rees-Mogg as “the most exciting
  of withdrawal terms would be allowed. But Mrs                  contribution” to the debate, and publicly backed by
  May ignored them. The complex issues raised by                 David Davis and Boris Johnson, the substantial IEA paper
  the Northern Ireland border were flagged up early
                                                                 proposed a Canada-style free trade arrangement together
  on. But only in recent months, to the profound
  frustration of the Irish government, have Mrs May              with a new Anglo-Irish agreement to preserve the open
  and her cabinet taken this question seriously – and            border. It stated that EU membership “saddles the UK
  she still lacks a solution. EU officials complain,             with regulations that protect large incumbent businesses
  with justice, that her inflexible negotiating
                                                                 from competition” but insisted that it was not suggesting
  stance revealed an ignorant disregard, or lack of
  understanding, of the basic principles upon which              scrapping regulation but rather looking for “better
  the EU is based, namely the single market, free                regulation”. The paper argues for a global migration
  movement of people and goods and a common                      system that “recognises the economic and social benefits
  regulatory and legal framework.
                                                                 and costs of immigration.”
The former Irish Ambassador to London, Bobby
McDonagh, has commented on Theresa May’s attempt to              Boris Johnson set out a six-point Brexit plan in an article
appeal above the head of the EU chief negotiator, Michel         which argued that the Prime Minister’s Chequers plan
Barnier, which involved ministerial visits to EU capitals        cheated Leave voters, represented a “collective failure of
and lobbying at official level, was based on the illusion        government” and was “a moral and intellectual humiliation
that the EU27 would eventually cave in not least on the          for this country”. The right solution is a SuperCanada
Irish border question. At Salzburg it became clear that          free trade deal with zero tariffs and zero quotas and a
the strategy had failed as the EU27 reaffirmed their full        process for recognising each other’s rules. The withdrawal
backing for Barnier whose mandate came from the heads            agreement should state that the Irish border question will
of government themselves and who they recognised as              be settled as part of the future economic arrangement. He
“carrying out their wishes calmly and effectively.”              concluded “We must decide whether we have the guts to
                                                                 fulfil the instruction of the people - to leave the EU and
                                                                 truly take back control of our laws and our lives.”

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                   BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May responded to these ideas on her         Irish Developments
way to the UN General Assembly by saying that a no-deal
                                                                   The main development in Irish terms was the Varadkar-
Brexit would be better than any Canada-style arrangement
                                                                   May breakfast meeting described above and the fallout
as the latter would have the effect of splitting Northern
                                                                   from the conclusions of the EU27 on the Chequers
Ireland from the rest of the UK. She forcefully defended the
                                                                   proposals.
Chequers plan – a free trade area under the EU rule book - as
a viable proposal which also addresses the need to keep the        The Salzburg informal summit was the main subject of
Irish border open.                                                 briefings by Europe Minister, Helen McEntee, to the Dail
                                                                   and to the Joint Oireachtas Committee on EU Affairs. In
Evolving Labour Party Policy
                                                                   both settings the Minister stressed the urgency of progress,
The Labour Party Conference, after a long and at times divisive    quoting the Taoiseach’s insistence on the need to redouble
debate, adopted a major policy resolution on Brexit which          efforts over coming weeks to conclude the legal text of the
saw the party take a significant step towards backing a public     Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland.
vote on Brexit. The resolution argued that Labour should
                                                                   The Minister placed considerable emphasis on the need
demand a general election if Parliament rejects whatever deal
                                                                   for contingency planning for a no-deal outcome, referring
the Prime Minister agrees with Brussels. It continues: “If we
                                                                   to detailed work being undertaken by individual Ministers
cannot get a general election, Labour must support all options
                                                                   and their Departments. She spoke of these efforts being
remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public
                                                                   undertaken in parallel with a Government programme
vote. If the government is confident in negotiating a deal that
                                                                   of public information and outreach campaign – ‘Getting
working people, our economy and communities will benefit
                                                                   Ireland Brexit Ready’. As this campaign was launched the
from, they should not be afraid to put that deal to the public.”
                                                                   Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation, Heather
The Party’s Shadow Brexit Secretary, Keir Starmer, has made        Humphreys, revealed the results of a Behaviour and Attitudes
it clear that the Labour Party’s verdict on any Theresa May        survey which found that just over one quarter of businesses
deal with Brussels will be assessed by reference to Labour’s       have a plan in place to deal with Brexit. Those businesses that
six tests:                                                         expect to be heavily affected by Brexit were, however, more
                                                                   proactive. The Minister commented that “notwithstanding
1.   Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future
                                                                   the uncertainty that comes with Brexit, it is crucial that
     relationship with the EU?
                                                                   affected businesses without a plan urgently put one in place.”
2.   Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we
     currently have as members of the Single Market and            Political discussion following Salzburg saw Ministers
     Customs Union?                                                highlighting the significance of political realities in Northern
                                                                   Ireland with the absence of a Power Sharing Executive
3.   Does it ensure the fair management of migration in
                                                                   leaving Northern Ireland without a voice in crucial talks
     the interests of the economy and communities?
                                                                   and with the DUP in Westminster playing a key role in the
4.   Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a           parliamentary arithmetic. Tánaiste Simon Coveney argued
     race to the bottom?                                           that there should be no question of a DUP veto on possible
5.   Does it protect national security and our capacity to         backstop arrangements, while Europe Minister McEntee
     tackle cross-border crime?                                    stressed the importance of Michel Barnier’s de-dramatisation
                                                                   of the backstop issue: “Take the politics out of it, take the
6.   Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?        drama out of it [...]”

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

Die Welt Article                                                  Michel Barnier on Backstop

Prime Minister Theresa May contributed an op-ed to the            Following a meeting of the General Affairs Council on 18
German journal Die Welt on 19 September 2018. This                September 2018 Michel Barnier spoke to a press briefing
became a key element of the Salzburg controversy.                 on the preparations for discussion on the Northern
                                                                  Ireland backstop, referring to the proposal already tabled
In the op-ed, Theresa May wrote regarding the backstop            by the EU side in February, seen as an insurance policy
that: “We will also honour our commitment to ensure that          whatever the future relationship will bring, and indicating
there is a legally operative Protocol on Northern Ireland         that he was ready to improve on the proposal. He spoke,
but that Protocol must protect the Belfast/Good Friday            for instance, of work underway on clarification on which
Agreement in all its parts and respect the constitutional         goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK
and economic of the UK which the Commission’ proposal             would need to be checked and where, when and by whom
does not.” She further suggested that as the UK had evolved       these checks could be performed and whether checks
in its position, the EU needs to do likewise, arguing that        can take place away from the border. “We need to de-
“neither side can demand the unacceptable of the other,           dramatise the checks that are needed and that are caused
such as an external customs border between different parts        by the UK’s decision to leave the EU, its Single Market
of the United Kingdom […] or the UK seeking the rights            and customs union.”
of EU membership without the obligations.”
                                                                  He concluded that “what we need in the Withdrawal
No-Deal Guidance Notices: Third Set                               Agreement is a legally operational backstop, which fully
                                                                  respects the territorial integrity of the UK. The backstop
The UK Government has published its third set of ‘no-
                                                                  will only apply unless and until a better solution is found,
deal’ notices giving advice on how to prepare if the UK
                                                                  in the context of or future relationship.”
leaves the EU with no deal. This batch includes references
to aviation licences, air services, air traffic control, animal
                                                                  Nicola Sturgeon on Delaying Brexit
vaccination, livestock sanitary checks, coach holidays,
motorists’ certificates of insurance, mineral waters and          The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has called for
origin of processed foods.                                        Brexit to be delayed next March if the UK has not signed
                                                                  up to a detailed agreement with the European Union by
On aviation, the notice said that flights could be disrupted      then. She argued that it would be ‘absolutely reckless’
because the EU-issued aviation licences would not be              to leave the EU without knowing what will replace
valid: “If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with no             the current relationship. A vague European Council
agreement in place, UK and EU licensed airlines would             statement in October on the future UK-EU relationship
lose the automatic right to operate air services between the      would amount to a ‘blind Brexit’ she says. The First
UK and EU without seeking advance permission.”                    Minister stressed the need to avoid delaying the resolution
                                                                  of difficult issues until the transition period, when the UK
Pet owners who want to take holidays in the EU would
                                                                  will already have left the EU, which “seems to me to be
have to prepare for travel “at least four months ahead in
                                                                  tantamount to jumping off a cliff with a blindfold on […]
advance of the date they wish to travel” and would need
                                                                  it is far more in the interests of the whole UK for Article
to prove their animals were effectively vaccinated against
                                                                  50 to be extended so that all of the alternative options can
rabies. On arrival in the EU, they would then be required
                                                                  be properly considered.”
to report to a designated entry point with their animals.”

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

Section Three: Background Material and Further                   The Guardian The Guardian view on May and Brexit:
Reading                                                          honesty is still an option. Guardian, 28 September.
Background Material                                              (www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/28/
                                                                 the-guardian-view-on-may-and-brexit-honesty-is-still-an-
GOV.UK How to prepare if the UK leaves the EU with
                                                                 option)
no deal. Updated, 24 September 2018. (www.gov.uk/
government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-
                                                                 Boris Johnson My plan for a better Brexit. The
the-eu-with-no-deal)
                                                                 Telegraph, 27 September 2018. (www.telegraph.co.uk/
                                                                 politics/2018/09/27/boris-johnson-plan-better-brexit)
The Guardian No-deal Brexit could hit UK-EU flights,
says Whitehall. Guardian, 24 September 2018. (www.
                                                                 Bloomberg Johnson to Voters: My Brexit Plan is
theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/uk-eu-flights-
                                                                 Better Than Theresa May’s. Bloomberg, 27 September
would-cease-immediately-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit)
                                                                 2018. (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/
                                                                 johnson-to-voters-my-brexit-plan-is-better-than-theresa-
Prime Minister Theresa May Statement on Brexit
                                                                 may-s)
Negotiations, 21 September 2018. (www.gov.uk/
government/news/pm-brexit-negotiations-statement-21-
                                                                 Independent Labour conference passes motion saying
september-2018)
                                                                 party ‘must’ leave door open for new Brexit referendum.
                                                                 Independent, 27 September 2018. (.
European Council Statement by President Donald Tusk
on the Brexit negotiations, 21 September 2018. (www.
                                                                 The Guardian Jeremy Corbyn calls for election if MPs
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/09/21/
                                                                 vote down May’s Brexit deal. Guardian, 26 September
statement-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-brexit-
                                                                 2018.(www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/26/
negotiations)
                                                                 jeremy-corbyn-labour-conference-speech-brexit-
                                                                 chequers-plan-election)
Tony Connelly         Salzburg: How a chronic
misreading has brought Brexit to the brink. RTE, 22
                                                                 Financial Times Labour will vote against ‘blind Brexit’.
September 2018.        (www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-
                                                                 FT, 25 September 2018. (www.ft.com/content/04aa7766-
comment/2018/0921/995292-salzburg-chronic-
                                                                 c096-11e8-8d55-54197280d3f7)
misreading)
                                                                 The Guardian Brexit costing Britain £500m a week and
Tony Connelly Brexit: Delicate talks as high noon
                                                                 rising. Guardian, 29 September 2018. (www.theguardian.
approaches. RTE, 29 September 2018. (www.rte.ie/
                                                                 com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-
news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0929/998765-brexit)
                                                                 million-pounds-a-week)

Prime Minister Theresa May Article in Die Welt, 19
                                                                 Financial Times EU prepares five-year plan in case of
September 2018. (- Observer The Observer view on Theresa
                                                                 no-deal Brexit. FT, 27 September 2018. (www.ft.com/
May’s calamitous Brexit strategy. Observer, 23 September
                                                                 content/425417d4-c1c2-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a)
2018.      (www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/
sep/23/brexit-theresa-may-chequers-eu)                           Philip Stephens A timeout is Britain’s best Brexit
                                                                 option. FT, 27 September 2018. (www.ft.com/content/
                                                                 e29d24a8-c184-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

The Guardian Rise of populism in Europe hardens                  The Telegraph Cabinet backs Canada-style Brexit deal as
Macron against May’s Brexit plans. Guardian, 21                  Hunt urges PM to drop Chequers. Telegraph, 24 September
September 2018. (www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/              2018.         (www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/23/
sep/21/emmanuel-mcron-theresa-may-brexit-populism-               majority-cbinet-now-supports-move-towards-canada-
uk)                                                              style-brexit)

Christopher Castener and others       Let’s reinvent             BBC Brexit: What happens next? BBC, 21 September
Europe to reclaim its promise and heal its divisions.            2018. (www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45601502)
Guardian, 27 September 2018. (www.theguardian.com/
commentisfree/2018/sep/27/reinvent-europe-reclaim-               Centre for European Reform After Salzburg: How to
promise-heal;-divisions)                                         salvage the Brexit negotiations. CER, 24 September 2018.
                                                                 (www.cer.eu/insights/after-salzburg-how-salvage-brexit-
Dail Eireann Brexit Negotiations: Statement by Minister          negotiations)
Helen McEntee, 25 September 2018. (www.oireachtas.ie/
en/debates/debate/dail/2018-09-25/34)                            Institute of Economic Affairs Plan A+ Creating a
                                                                 prosperous post-Brexit UK. IEA, September 2018. (www.
Irish Times Irish Times view on the Brexit talks: a              iea.org.uk/publications/plan-a-creating-a-prosperous-
precarious stand-off. IT, 22 September 2018. (www.               post-brexit-uk)
irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/irish-times-view-on-
the-brexit-talks-a-precarious-stand-off-1.3637412)               Financial Times Theresa May says no deal better than
                                                                 Canada-style trade agreement. FT, 26 September 2018.
Centre for European Reform The Cost of Brexit to June            (www.ft.com/content/163e8710-c0dc-11e8-95b1-
2018. CER, 30 September 2018. (www.cer.eu/insights/              d36dfef1b89a)
cost-brexit-june-2018)
                                                                 Wolfgang Munchau No-deal Brexit is the most likely
The Guardian Ministers warn harder EU exit risks                 outcome of the Salzburg summit. FT, 23 September
breaking up Britain. Guardian, 22 September 2018.                2018.     (www.ft.com/content/37fb2b76-bd83-11e8-
(www.thegusrdian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/hard-                  8274-55b72926558f )
brexit-risks-breakup-uk-conservstives-warn)
                                                                 The Telegraph The EU is a religion – and Britain is
The Guardian ‘Don’t mistake British politeness for               up against federalist fanatics. Telegraph, 22 September
weakness’, Jeremy Hunt tells EU. Guardian, 22 September          2018. (www.telegrsapoh.co.uk/politics/2018/09/22/eu-
2018.       (www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/           religion-britain-against-federalist-fanatics)
dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-
hunt-tells-eu)                                                   Financial Times Tough Brexit stance highlights EU’s
                                                                 biggest priorities. FT, 21 September 2018. (www.ft.com/
The Guardian The Guardian view on Brexit options:                content/3aa38246-bdbb-11e8-8274-55b72926558f )
time to speak for Britain. Guardian, 24 September 2018.
(www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/24/                  RTE Corbyn says he would support second Brexit
the-guardian-view-on-brexit-options-time-to-speak-for-           referendum. RTE, 23 September 2018. (www.rte.ie/
britain)                                                         news/brexit/2018/0923/995516-corbyn-says-he-would-
                                                                 support-second-brexit-referendum)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

President Donald Tusk Remarks after the Salzburg                 BBC Brexit: EU ‘ready to improve’ Irish border proposal.
informal summit, 20 September 2018. (www.consilium.              BBC, 19 September 2018. (www.bbc.com/news/uk-
europa.eu/press/press-releases/2018/09/20/remarks-               politics-45566205)
by-president-donald-tusk-after-the-salzburg-informal-
summit)                                                          Federal Trust Brexit: Salzburg makes a People’s Vote
                                                                 More Likely. Federal Trust, 24 September 2018. (www.
President Donald Tusk Remarks ahead of the informal              fedtrust.co.uk/brexit-salzburg-makes-a-peoples-vote-
Salzburg summit, 19 September 2018. (www.consilium.              morre-likely)
europa.eu/press/press-releases/2018/09/19/remarks-by-
presidengt-donald-tusk-ahead-of-the-informal-salzburg-           Wolfgang Munchau EU citizens in Britain should prepare
summit)                                                          for the worst. FT, 17 September 2018. (www.ft.com/
                                                                 content/3525f71a-b819-11e8-b3ef-799c8613f4a1)
RTE Chequers plan will not work in present form –
Tusk. RTE, 20 September 2018. (www.rte.ie/news/                  Boris Johnson Irish Border problem a ‘gnat’ and
brexit/2018/0920/994895-varadkar-may-eu-salzburg)                backstop a ‘monstrosity’. Irish Times, 17 September
                                                                 2018.          (www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/boris-
Financial Times Theresa May seeks to staunch fallout             johnson-irish-border-problem-a-gnat-annnd-backstop-a-
from EU summit. FT, 21 September 2018. (www.ft.com/              monstrosity-1.3631286)
content/e645c5d0-bd6d-11e8-8274-55b72926558f )
                                                                 BBC Nicola Sturgeon calls for Brexit to be delayed. BBC,
The Guardian Salzburg humiliation leaves May idling              19 September 2018. (www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-
at the Brexit crossroads. Guardian, 20 September 2018.           politics-45585730)
(www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-
fighting-on-all-fronts-after-salzburg-embarrassment)             Tony Connelly         Salzburg: How a chronic
                                                                 misreading has brought Brexit to the brink. RTE, 22
RTE UK minister says no-deal Brexit unless EU softens            September 2018.        (www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-
position on border. RTE, 21 September 2018. (www.rte.            comment/2018/0921/995292-salzburg-chronic-
ie/news/brexit/2018/0921/995130-brexit-deal-uk)                  misreading)

Michel Barnier Press Statement following the General             Bobby McDonagh Why Theresa May’s plan to bypass
Affairs Council, 18 September 2018. (www.europa.eu/              Barnier was doomed. IT, 21 September 2018. (www.
rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-18-5829_en.htm)                    irishtimes.com/opinion/ewhy-theresa-may-s-plan-to-
                                                                 bypass-barnierr-was-doomed-1.3636119)
The Guardian Macron puts the boot in after May’s Brexit
Breakfast blunder. Guardian, 20 September 2018. (www.            RTE       Northern Ireland at centre of Brexit
theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/macron-puts-the-            conundrum. RTE, 25 September 2018. (www.rte.ie/
boot-in-after-mays-brexit-breakfast-blunder)                     brexit/2018/0924/995703-tommie-gorman-brexit)

Financial Times The greatest threat to Brexit is now             Diarmaid Ferriter England has always used the Border
the Brexiters themselves. FT, 18 September 2018.                 for its own gain. IT, 28 September 2018. (www.irishtimes.
(www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-ba57-11e8-94b2-                     com/opinion/diarmaid-ferriter-england-has-always-used-
17176fbf9315)                                                    the-border-for-its-own-gain-1.3644648)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT
BRIEF                                                                                BREXIT BRIEF 049 | OCT 2018

Paddy Smyth Brexit summit: Varadkar ‘reassured’ of EU
backing. IT, 20 September 2018. (www.irishtimes.com/
news/politics/brexit-summit-varadkar-reassured-of-eu-
backing-1.3635978)

RTE DUP cannot be allowed to have a ‘veto’ on backstop
deal – Coveney. RTE, 22 September 2018. (www.rte.ie/
news/brexit/2018/0922/995368-brexit)

Irish Times Newton Emerson: Sea border is different
to Brexit backstop. IT, 27 September 2018. (www.
irishtimes.com/opinion/newton-emerson-sea-border-is-
different-to-brexit-backstop-1q.3642440)

RTE Backstop has not turned into a ‘green or orange’
issue- McEntee. RTE, 23 September 2018. (www.rte.ie/
news/2018/0923/995574-ireland-brexit-politics)

Irish Times United Ireland after Brexit: do the sums
add up? IT, 19 September 2018. (www.irishtimes.com/
business/economy/united-ireland-after-brexit-do-the-
sums-add-up-1.3633581)

Irish Times Businesses too slow in preparing for Brexit-
Heather Humphreys. IT, 26 September 2018. (www.
irishtimes.com/business/economy/businesses-too-slow-
in-preparing-for-brexit-heather-humphreys-1.36412179)

Further Reading

Julian Priestley Six Battles that shaped Europe’s
Parliament. John Harper Publishing

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
The Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) is Ireland’s leading international affairs think tank. Founded in 1991, its mission is to
foster and shape political, policy and public discourse in order to broaden awareness of international and European issues in Ireland and contribute
to more informed strategic decisions by political, business and civil society leaders.

The IIEA is independent of government and all political parties and is a not-for profit organisation with charitable status. In January 2017, the Global
Go To Think Tank Index ranked the IIEA as Ireland’s top think tank.

© Institute of International and European Affairs, October 2018

Creative Commons License

This is a human-readable summary of (and not a substitute for) the license.

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)

You are free to:

• Share - copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format

• Adapt - remix, transform, and build upon the material

• The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

Under the following terms:

Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable
manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.

NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.

ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.

No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license
permits.

                                        The Institute of International and European Affairs,

                                            8 North Great Georges Street, Dublin 1, Ireland
                                                 T: +353-1-8746756 F: +353-1-8786880
                                                E: reception@iiea.com W: www. iiea.com
You can also read