BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - 24 SEPTEMBER 2018 - Concordia-Pas
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BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
24 SEPTEMBER 2018
1
CONTENTS
Overview.........................................................................................................................................3
General Elections at Federal and State Level...............................................................................4
Final Stretch...................................................................................................................................5
Important Rules..............................................................................................................................6
Presidential Elections.....................................................................................................................7
Jair Bolsonaro................................................................................................................................8
Fernando Haddad..........................................................................................................................9
Ciro Gomes..................................................................................................................................10
Geraldo Alckmin...........................................................................................................................11
Marina Silva.................................................................................................................................12
Comparison: Communication Capacity.......................................................................................13
Comparison: Political Support.....................................................................................................14
Comparison: Campaign Strength................................................................................................15
Voter Intention Polls – 2018 ........................................................................................................16
Undecided Voter Profile...............................................................................................................17
Analyzing Past Elections Polls....................................................................................................18
Comparison: Growth Potential in the First Round.......................................................................19
Runoff Scenarios.........................................................................................................................20
What to expect if elected.............................................................................................................21
2
OVERVIEW
Brazil’s 2018 election stands in contrast to those that have taken place since re- conclusions, mostly due to the methodologies used. The data Concordia has
democratization. It occurs against the backdrop of twin economic and institutional analyzed points to an unpredictable contest with five candidates capable of
crises, the starting point of which is hard to define. Some analysts point to the reaching the runoff. The high degree of political instability suggests that the
June 2013 protests, while others place more emphasis on Dilma Rousseff’s margin of error in existing polls is larger than in previous elections. Historical
reelection with a weakened political base in the Legislative branch, compounded analysis also suggests that the scenario will only be defined a week ahead of the
by the ongoing Car Wash corruption probe. However, 2018 has additional elections (by 1 October). The only consensus among analysts is that the
distinguishing characteristics. The current instability can be traced in equal campaign will be intense and prone to twists and turns. Concordia believes that,
measures to the role of Rousseff’s Workers Party (symbolized by the arrest of its by a narrow margin, the anti Worker’s Party sentiment will prevail and put push
founding leader, former president Lula) and on the outgoing administration of her Bolsonaro’s candidacy over the top, but much can happen before the runoff vote
vice president, Michel Temer, who assumed power following her widely contested on 28 October. This race is still “too close to call.”
impeachment and has no clear successor in the race. In short, the entire political
As far as the Legislative branch and the States are concerned, a plethora of social
class is seen as responsible for Brazil’s current misfortune.
movements promoting political renewal, joined by some recently founded parties
The scenario resembles that of the 1989 election, when 22 candidates ran for (bringing the total to 35), are not expected to resonate substantially to bring about
president following the first civil government. But 2018 stands alone in Brazil’s meaningful political reform. The legislation crafted by incumbents that governs the
short democratic history given a clear fragmentation of political forces with a system will channel voters toward traditional parties and promote the status-quo.
handful of competitive candidates led in the polls by a “lone wolf” (Jair Bolsonaro, The result being a rotation of power in the States among existing political parties.
a right-wing populist from a small party).
We estimate that, in Congress as well as in most State Assemblies, the large
Considering that the economy has just exited a prolonged recessionary cycle and parties (MDB, PSDB and PT) will continue losing seats and in turn will join a
is not yet growing, with unemployment at historic highs, there is a palpable and handful of midsized parties to share a new central bloc of power. This movement
generalized sense of dissatisfaction. Moreover, voters feel their interests are not toward ever greater fragmentation will make it more difficult for the president-elect
adequately reflected by the political establishment, which drives the popularity of to obtain a majority and approve reforms. Even moderate Geraldo Alckmin
two ideological extremes (the frontrunner and the Workers Party candidate). Add (PSDB), who boasts about his nine-party coalition, will have difficulties keeping his
to this the stabbing of the frontrunner at a recent campaign rally further clouding coalition together. In State Assemblies, there should be a small reduction in the
attempts to predict the election. number of parties represented, and no significant changes are expected, providing
an easier path for future governors-elect to form majorities.
Public acknowledgement that this election will in many ways determine country’s
future has led research institutes to conduct several polls that often draw disparate
Team Concordia
3
GENERAL ELECTIONS AT FEDERAL AND STATE LEVEL
PRESIDENCY OF NATIONAL STATES
THE REPUBLIC CONGRESS
President & 100% of the CHAMBER 2/3 of the SENATE 27 STATES
Vice President 513 federal deputies 54 senators will elect governors
and state deputies
Four-year term Four-year term Eight-year term
(1/1/2019 to 31/12/2022) (1/1/2019 to 31/12/2022) (1/1/2019 to 31/12/2026) Four-year term
(1/1/2019 to 31/12/2022)
Election will most likely take two Election by a proportional open Majority election, each voter has
rounds and the candidate who list system, considering the votes two votes.
obtains the majority (50% + 1) of Two round election (if necessary)
received by each coalition.
the valid votes wins. for governor and proportional
open list, considering the votes
received by the coalition for state
deputies.
4
FINAL STRETCH
There are five more debates scheduled before the elections. Bolsonaro’s absence may reduce their interest and limit their influence on voting.
Haddad, due to his position in second place behind Bolsonaro, will be the main target of the other candidates during these debates.
Less than 2 weeks from the first round, observers and candidates alike are hoping for new revelations or events with the power to change
current trends.
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN Important Dates
18/sep Debate Piauí and Poder360/ Youtube
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
20/sep Debate TV Aparecida
SEPTEMBER
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 26/sep Debate SBT/Folha
30/sep Debate TV Record
17 18
18 19 20
20 21 22 23 04/sep Debate Rede Globo and end of the electoral ad on TV
07/oct First round of the elections
24 25 26
26 27 28 29 30
30 11/oct Debate Band
12/oct Return of the electoral ad on TV
1 2 3 44 5 6 7
14/oct Debate TV Gazeta/Estadão
OCTOBER
8 9 10 11
11 12 13 14
14 15/oct Debate RedeTV
17/oct Debate SBT/Folha
15
15 16 17
17 18 19 20 21
21 21/oct Debate TV Record
26/oct Debate Rede Globo
22 23 24 25 26
26 27 28
28 28/oct Second round of the elections
5
IMPORTANT RULES
As there has already been an assassination attempt on the frontrunner, and the second place candidate died in the late stages of the 2014
election, it is important to note the rules that apply in the event of death, resignation or withdrawal between today and the end of the
presidential term in 2022.
There is some legal uncertainty regarding what happens if the winning candidate dies after final election results (runoff) are published but
before the inauguration. In our opinion, the thesis of confirmation of the running mate should prevail.
6
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
TOP 5 CANDIDATES 5 FACTORS THAT DEFINE THE WINNER
JAIR BOLSONARO (PSL)
Vice: Antonio Mourão (PRTB)
TV time
Coalition: PSL + PRTB Communication Social media
5 TV debates & narrative
4
FERNANDO HADDAD (PT)
Vice: Manuela D’Avila (PCdoB) 3
Coalition: PT , PcdoB + PROS 2
Growth potential Voting intentions
Rejection rate 1 Performance in polls
Appeal to undecideds
0
CIRO GOMES (PDT)
Vice: Katia Abreu (PDT)
Coalition: PDT + AVANTE
Campaign
GERALDO ALCKMIN (PSDB) Political Support
Strength
Local electoral support
Vice: Ana Amélia (PP) Campaign experience State coalitions
Coalition: PSDB, PTB, PP, PR, DEM, SD, PPS, PRB + PSD Campaign organization
Financing
Decisive point
MARINA SILVA (REDE) Strong point
Vice: Eduardo Jorge (PV) Not a differential
Coalition: REDE + PV
*Note: (Political Party)
7
JAIR BOLSONARO (PSL)
Jair Bolsonaro is a former army captain who sells himself as a political
outsider despite serving his seventh consecutive term as a federal deputy.
He was the most voted deputy of Rio de Janeiro state in 2014 with 465,000
ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE
votes and has been a member of seven different parties in his 27 years of
political life.
A lover of controversy, he has assumed a more moderate tone. He is a strong TV time
supporter of the military and has promised to eschew political appointments in Communication Social media
favor of competent professionals to promote liberal economic measures. TV Debates & narrative
Vice: Antonio Hamilton Mourão (PRTB)
Army Reserve General Mourão is a conservative provocateur. On several occasions he has
stated that "only the armed forces could reestablish order in a country of corrupt politicians." Voting intention
Growth potential
He has also moderated his tone in recent interviews as Bolsonaro has grown in the polls. Performance in polls
Rejection rate
Chairs the Military Club and leads the movement of former military officers entering politics. Appeal to undecided
On fiscal matters, he favors privatizing state companies and balancing the budget through
reduced spending.
Coalition: PSL + PRTB (with only 8 federal deputies and no senators)
Bolsonaro has not been able to negotiate broader alliances with the political class. Campaign Strength Political support
Campaign experience Local electoral support
Main advisors: State platforms
Campaign organization
Paulo Guedes: Should become Finance Minister, likely with broader powers magnified Financing
by the merger of other ministries. An avowed neoliberal, he will need to surround
himself with strong advisors to manage day to day economic policies. His quick temper
calls into question his ability to carry out political negotiations. Advantages: Adept communicator that knows how to harness popular
dissatisfaction with the political class (there are clear parallels with the strategy
Onyx Lorenzoni: Prominent campaign manager and responsible for negotiations with adopted by President Trump in the US)
other members of congress.
Weaknesses: Campaign with no TV time and no representation across much of the
Others: Sen. Magno Malta (PR), Dep. Mandetta (DEM), Dep. Eder Mauro (PSD), Dep. country. Absence from debates and public events after being stabbed can hurt down
Major Olimpio (SD), Francischini e Luciano Bivar (PSL) and General Augusto Heleno. the stretch.
8
FERNANDO HADDAD (PT)
Fernando Haddad is a professor and politician from São Paulo. He has
always been linked to the Worker’s party (PT). ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE
Former mayor of São Paulo and Lula’s Minister of Education, he was
chosen as the PT candidate once Lula was barred from running because
he represents a new face within the party, without any involvement in the
Car Wash investigations. TV time
Communication Social Media
He favors progressive causes and this would be reflected in his potential Debates & Narrative
government. Nonetheless, he will have limited control over political
negotiations or the PT’s governance model.
Vice: Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB) Voting intention
Growth Potential
Well-known politician from Rio Grande do Sul, she has been the most popular federal Performance in polls
deputy in her state every time she has run. She began in politics at age 23 in 2004 and Rejection Rate
despite her age has robust parliamentary experience. Appeal to undecideds
Before joining the PT coalition, she was her party’s choice to run for president. Like
Haddad, she also promotes a progressive agenda and favors tax reform based largely on
raising taxes on the wealthy.
Coalition: PT / PCdoB / PROS (82 Deputies and 11 Senators) Campaign Strength Political Support
If elected, he may manage to attract other parties beyond those of the traditional left. Experience in campaigns Local electoral support
Main advisors: Campaign organization State coalitions
Financing
Emidio de Souza: A campaign coordinator and trusted confidant. Former secretary in
Haddad’s São Paulo City administration and member of the PT’s National Board.
Chico Macena: Replaced Berzoini as campaign treasurer on Haddad’s request. He was
responsible for political coordination within Haddad’s administration in São Paulo. Advantages: Ability to attract much of Lula’s electorate; a powerful and efficient party
Rui Falcão: Campaign coordinator, very close to Lula. Former PT party president, is machine with extensive election expertise.
running for federal deputy in São Paulo. Weaknesses: Has never run for national office; unknown by a large part of the national
Party leadership: At first, Haddad will struggle to distance himself from PT’s leadership, electorate; suffered crushing defeat in his last election for mayor of São Paulo in 2016.
such as Gleisi Hoffman, Jacques Wagner, Paulo Teixeira and Lula.
9
CIRO GOMES (PDT)
Ciro Gomes is a trained lawyer and experienced politician that has held
many public positions over his 35-year political career. Previous offices include ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE
the mayor of Fortaleza, governor of Ceará and Finance Minister. Has switched
parties six times and last held public office in 2014.
In his third presidential campaign, he is selling himself as a left-wing alternative TV time
to the PT. He is a competent public speaker famous for his short temper. Communication Social Media
TV Debates & Narrative
He is known for centralizing power and his employment-focused development
agenda that favors industrial labor.
Vice: Kátia Abreu (PDT)
Growth potential Voting intention
Psychologist by training and “ruralist” in practice, Kátia is a conservative politician who was
once president of the National Agriculture Confederation and Minister of Agriculture during Rejection rate Performance in polls
Dilma’s second term. Appeal to undecideds
His choice as VP shows Ciro’s difficulty in forging political alliances, given that Abreu is
from his own party and does not enhance his electoral appeal.
Coalition: PDT + Avante (24 federal deputies and 3 senators)
His explosive behavior and the PT’s decision to run their own candidate made it difficult to Political support
negotiate alliances with center-left parties. But it would be easier to achieve this in the second Campaign Strength
Campaign Experience Local electoral support
round.
Campaign organization State coalitions
Main advisors: Financing
Cid Gomes: Former politician and Ciro’s brother and main ally, he is a leading campaign
coordinator.
Carlos Lupi: PDT party president and general campaign coordinator. Despite pending
Advantages: Gets his ideas across, has been doing well in debates and has the
investigations for corruption, Ciro would appoint him as minister “in a heartbeat”.
potential to gather more support from the center-left.
Mauro Benevides Filho: Economist from the Federal University of Ceará and would be
Weaknesses: Weak coalition, rejected by the Market with his VP and Carlos Lupi
responsible for economic policy. Likely to be appointed Finance Minister.
shrouded in controversy.
10GERALDO ALCKMIN (PSDB)
Geraldo Alckmin is a traditional politician from São Paulo known as a moderate
and for his ability to negotiate broad coalitions. ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE
Has had a successful career in politics, rising from city council of to serving as
governor of São Paulo for 14 years. He touts his achievements leading São TV time
Paulo’s government in the election and is the current president of the PSDB.
Social media
Communication
TV debates & narrative
He is the preferred candidate of a the financial sector and the political class.
However, his well structured party apparatus and leading amount of TV time has
not been enough to overcome his lack of charisma in such a polarized election.
Vice: Ana Amélia Lemos (PP) Growth potential Voting intention
Senator from Rio Grande do Sul since 2011, she represents a conservative electorate and Rejection rate Performance in polls
has close ties with agribusiness. Appeal to undecideds
She is a leading female voice in stark opposition against the PT. In the Senate, she has
been a recognized leader in healthcare policy.
Coalition: PSDB / PTB / PP / PR / DEM / SD / PPS / PRB / PSD
He has formed a broad coalition, which would give him a majority in the current formation of Campaign Strength Political support
the Congress, with 53% of the Chamber and 46% of the Senate. Local political support
Campaign experience
Main advisors: Campaign organization State coalitions
Financing
Pérsio Arida: Economist, academic and banker, was an architect of the Real Plan, and
is the first choice to lead liberal reforms in the Finance Ministry.
Senator Tasso Jereissati: Campaign coordinator and a senior leader of the PSDB; a
politician and businessman.
Advantages: Experienced in political campaigns, he has the most TV campaign
Luiz Felipe D’Ávila: Was expected to run for the governor of São Paulo; a political time and the support of the PSDB political establishment.
scientist expected to hold a high profile office in the government.
Weakness: Lack of charisma and a clear narrative that energizes the electorate in a
Duarte Nogueira: Mayor of Ribeirão Preto and federal deputy for 4 terms; one of changed environment; his moderate stance has not resonated with voters.
Alckmin’s top supporters in São Paulo’s PSDB leadership.
11MARINA SILVA (REDE)
Marina Silva is from the remote and impoverished state of Acre. The
daughter of rubber tappers, she is known for her environmental advocacy. ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE
Now in her third presidential bid, Marina was Brazil’s youngest senator in
1994 and led the Ministry of Environment for 6 years in Lula’s government.
TV time
Along the campaign, she has espoused centrist policies while vehemently Communication Social media
denouncing PT corruption. However, her falling numbers suggest that TV debates & narrative
many of her voters are shifting support to Ciro or Haddad under the
assumption that they have a better chance of defeating Bolsonaro.
Vice: Eduardo Jorge (PV)
Growth potential Voting intention
A doctor by training, Jorge was one of the founders of PT and was elected federal deputy Rejection rate Performance in polls
for the first time in 1986. He is known for supporting controversial positions such as
Appeal to undecideds
legalizing abortion and marijuana.
He is a vocal critic of corruption and the status quo. Marina’s choice of VP corroborates the
theory that she will only choose politicians untouched by corruption, but shows a general
lack of political reach.
Coalition: REDE + PV (6 federal deputies, 1 senator) Campaign strength Political support
She has had difficulty negotiating political alliances. Campaign experience Local political support
Campaign organization State coalitions
Main advisors: Financing
Eduardo Giannetti and André Lara Resende are responsible for the campaign's economic
platform. Both are respected intellectuals with a liberal bent, softened by the ideas of
center-left. However, neither of them would likely be named Finance Minister.
João Paulo Capobianco: Campaign coordinator, worked with Marina in the Ministry of Advantages: She has electoral recall in the range of 15% and her moderate
Environment and is a long-time friend and adviser. posture can attract undecideds and people tired of political polarization.
Deputy Miro Teixeira (RJ-REDE): An experienced federal deputy, Miro is a candidate for Weaknesses: Inability to create compelling anti-PT and anti-Bolsonaro narrative,
the senate and a member of the Marina campaign committee. hurt by demonstrating indecision in countless moments of the campaign.
12COMPARISON: COMMUNICATION CAPACITY
TV Time Bolsonaro has almost no TV time, but is charismatic and says
what voters want to hear. He has the largest number of
Internet x TV Facebook followers and several impact videos made by
supporters. His distance from street rallies and internal
27% Media IBOPE/CNI Paraná Polls misalignments amongst campaign advisors have damaged his
communication capacity in recent weeks.
44% TV 62% 37%
1% Haddad has the second most TV time and a social media
advantage thanks to the PT machine. The emotional appeal of
3% Internet News 33%
6% Lula’s imprisonment has the potential to win over voters.
43% However, he missed over half of the TV debates and interviews
19% Social Media /
26% while Lula’s candidacy was being challenged in the courts.
blogs
Newspapers 17% 6%
Alckmin Haddad Ciro has charisma and uses catchphrases that capture voter
Ciro Marina Radio 17% 4% attention and generate spontaneous media and memes. But his
performance in debates has been lackluster thus far, and his TV
Bolsonaro Others
time is minimal.
Alckmin has 44% of the total allocated TV time and enough
Social Media Followers money to create quality content. However, his campaign lacks a
convincing narrative, focused on criticizing the frontrunner, with
more charisma and better messaging (Bolsonaro). In debates he
is the sole representative on the right and as such is a constant
target and remains defensive.
Marina has the smallest communication capacity due to her lack
of TV time, has a complex narrative and is uninspiring in
debates and interviews. On the other hand, she has the second
largest number of followers and is supported by an Academy
award-winning director.
13COMPARISON: POLITICAL SUPPORT
STATE PLATFORMS POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS – MAYORS¹ (%)
2%
Marina
0%
0%
Bolsonaro
1%
39%
Alckmin
14%
0%
Ciro Gomes
6%
Coalition Party
2%
A state is considered a platform for a Haddad
Alckimin (PSDB) 5%
candidate in cases where the current
Haddad (PT) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
governor or front-runner is the most influential
Ciro Gomes (PDT)
political figure in the territory. In states with no
Divided scenario
Undefined
defined political leader, state platforms are POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS – COUNCILMEN¹ (%)
indicated as Divided or Undefined.
3%
Marina
0%
The political support analysis allows a better understanding of the national reach of each campaign, Bolsonaro
1%
reinforcing TV spots, rallies and other campaign actions: 2%
40%
• Alckmin is the candidate with the largest (potential) reach in the country, having the largest number Alckmin
9%
of elected PSDB councilmen and mayors, as well as from his coalition. However, there are
indications that many of those in the Northeast, are supporting “Lula”, and others in the South and Ciro Gomes
0%
Center-West are supporting Bolsonaro. 7%
Coalition Party
• PT remains strong in the Northeast, with the support of well-liked governors and leading candidates Haddad
3%
in the region. The party maintains a large number of mayors and councilmen in the region. 5%
• Ciro Gomes is also strong in the Northeast, but will struggle against the PT in the region and has 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
scattered support in the North.
• Bolsonaro and Marina do not have state platforms and their local support bases are weak if ¹ Percentage of total councilmen and mayors in Brazil members of a party or coalition.
compared to the other candidates.
Source: TSE Stats (accessed in August 2018).
14COMPARISON: CAMPAIGN STRENGTH
CAMPAIGN EXPERIENCE CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION
• Haddad’s campaign committee is the most
Weighting of each criterion: organized, and the one with higher number of
Bolsonaro
collaborators.
Elected: W4
Marina • Alckmin’s committee comes in second place, and he
Presidential campaigns: W2
has the support of allied parties.
Ciro Majority campaigns: W2
Proportional campaigns: W1
• Ciro and Marina’s campaigns are also well
Haddad organized and they have collaborators in different
areas, but with less resources.
Alckmin • Bolsonaro’s committee is small, less organized and
is struggling with internal alignment; his strength lies
0 10 20 30 40 50
on spontaneous mobilizations in different cities.
Elected Presidential Majority voting Proportional voting
CAMPAIGN FINANCING TRAVEL SCHEDULE/ RECENT EVENTS
Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro
Weighting of each criterion: Marina
Marina in R$ million
Mobilization: W3 Ciro
Ciro Key states: W2
Variety: W2 Haddad
Haddad
Quantity: W1
Alckmin
Alckmin
0 5 10 15 20
0 10 20 30 40 50
Key states Variety Quantity Mobilization
Alckmin Haddad Ciro Marina Bolsonaro
15VOTER INTENTION POLLS – 2018
Voting Intention Evolution 2018 – Stimulated answers by Polls Court cancelled
Lula’s candidacy
30
Bolsonaro stabbed 28%
25
Percentage
20
16%
15
13%
12%
10 10%
9%
7%
5
5%
0
Jair Bolsonaro Fernando Haddad Geraldo Alckmin Ciro Gomes Marina Silva Others Blank or null Does not know
16UNDECIDED VOTER PROFILE
?
Null Voter (Blank Ballot) Does not know*
Average*: 13% (11% for spontaneous answers) Average*: 6% of total voters (30% for spontaneous answers)
Age: 22% in each age group over 25 years-old Age: 65% are over 45 years-old
Income: similar to the general voter profile (small bias Income: 75% earn up to 2 times the minimum wage
towards smaller incomes)
Region: 37% live in the Northeast and 34% in the Southeast
Region: similar to the general voter profile (small bias towards
Southeast) Gender: 73% are female
Gender: 66% of undecided voters are female
▪ Bolsonaro is the candidate whose supporter profile differs the most from that of undecided voters. As such, he would likely benefit the most from a higher
number of blank ballots
▪ Theoretically, Haddad is the candidate who could most benefit from these voters, followed by Ciro, because of their higher acceptance among women, the
oldest voters and people in the Northeastern region.
▪ It is difficult to predict how many voters will cast a blank or null ballots, but the current figure is 4% higher than the number of blank and null votes in the first
round of the 2014 election. If on the one hand, the protest vote is likely to play a major role in these elections, this could be at least partially hindered by
increased polarization.
*Based on the last four IBOPE and Datafolha polls 17ANALYZING PREVIOUS ELECTION POLLS
Voting intention 1989 - Datafolha Voting intention 2014 - Datafolha
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
%
25 25
%
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data Data
24/abr 04/jun 02/jul 20/ago 24/set 08/out 19/out 03/nov 07/nov 10/nov 15/nov 09/mai 06/jun 02/jul 17/jul 18/ago 29/ago 03/set 19/set 26/set 02/out 04/out
Fernando Collor Leonel Brizola Lula Dilma Rousseff Aécio Neves Marina Silva
Others
Outros Blank Votes
Brancos e Nulos Undecided
Não Sabe Others
Outros BlankeVotes
Brancos Nulos Undecided
Não Sabe
• Since the return to democracy, only two elections were similar to the 2018 elections in terms of political polarization: 1989 and 2014.
• All other presidential elections (1994-2010) were a race between the two contenders with the highest voting intentions in the first round or, in 1994 and 1998 that was decided in the first round.
In polarized scenarios like this one, history shows that the leader in voting intentions in the first round has a tendency to lead the race throughout the entire campaign and win it. The definition
of the second candidate to advance to the runoff stage, however, is usually defined in a tight battle between the second and third place candidates in the polls, with polling numbers only
showing accuracy as to the final result a few days before the first round (5 days in 1989 and 2 days in 2014).
• In more stable years, the contest was between the two best placed candidates, with a certain runoff ballot before the start of TV campaigning, which started 3 months before election day. In all
of these instances, the leader in voting intentions since the outset of the race reached the Presidency (being reelected in half of the cases).
• It is possible for a candidate to peak twice in voting intentions; lose traction and then regain votes throughout the campaign. This happened with Collor, Dilma and FHC. But Marina Silva
seems to be an exception to this rule since she peaked in polls three weeks before the election and did not recover in 2014; she has already peaked and showing no signs of recovery.
18COMPARISON: GROWTH POTENTIAL IN 1ST ROUND
Rejection rates over time Bolsonaro has the lowest growth potential due to a high
50 absolute rejection rate, specifically among the poorest (up to 2
times the minimum wage), Northeast and female audiences.
40 This demographic represents the average Lula voter, and is the
profile of the majority of undecideds.
30
20 Marina is the candidate who, despite her high rejection rate (2nd
place overall), does not have a specific demographic indicator-
10 only a slightly more significant rate in terms of gender. This
means she has limited growth potential given that she does not
0
have a captive electorate. In the event that any candidate
Bolsonaro Alckmin Marina Ciro Haddad
stumbles, these votes would migrate to other candidates.
IBOPE 20.08 Datafolha 22.08 Datafolha 10.09 IBOPE 11.09 DATAFOLHA 14.09
Alckmin’s voter profile is similar to Marina’s, in that those who
reject him cannot be identified as a cohesive demographic
group. However, his absolute rejection rate is lower than
Rejection by demographic Marina's. In this sense, he could gain votes as an alternative to
Income Gender Age Region the Bolsonaro/Haddad polarization – due to "useful vote"
Candidate reasoning.
High Low High High Low High Low
Ciro has significant growth potential because he has the lowest
Between 16 rate of absolute rejection among all candidates, which goes with
Bolsonaro Poorest Richest Female 55 and older Northeast South
and 24 his support among the poorest and women. His voter profile
Marina Balanced Male Balanced Balanced mirrors that of Lula's and the undecideds, so he is competing
directly with Haddad for this group.
Alckmin Balanced Male Balanced - South
Haddad’s voter profile is similar to Ciro’s, but with the caveat of
Between 16
Ciro Richest Poorest Male - Balanced having better support in the populous Northeastern region,
and 24
Lula's electoral stronghold. Given that the Northeast voter profile
Between 16 coincides with that of the undecideds, he has the greatest
Haddad Richest Poorest Male 60 and older Southeast Northeast
and 24 growth potential of all candidates.RUNOFF SCENARIOS
From opinion polls and runoff
scenarios, we can reach the Haddad Ciro Marina Bolsonaro Alckmin
following conclusions:
1. Instability remains high and
there is no clear favorite to win Ciro TIE Bolsonaro Alckmin
the elections.
Haddad Average* Average* FSB** Average*
2. There are discrepancies C: 42% x H: 28% H: 36% x M: 34% B: 46% x H: 38% A: 36% x H: 32%
between polls from different V:45% P:27% V:39% P:34%
research institutes. Ciro Ciro TIE Ciro
Ciro Average* Average* Ibope** Average*
3. Ciro Gomes has the best runoff C: 42% x H: 28% V:45% P:27% C: 44% x M: 27% C: 40% x B: 39% C: 39% x A: 31%
V:45% P:27% V:44% P:32% V:45% P:38%
performance but its chances of
getting that far are diminishing. TIE Ciro Bolsonaro Alckmin
4. Bolsonaro is gaining favor and Marina Average* Average*
V:39% P:34% V:44% P:32% Average*
M:43% B:39% Average*
closing the gap with other H: 36% x M: 34% C: 44% x M: 27% B: 41% x M: 36% A: 35% x M: 32%
candidates.
TIE Ciro Bolsonaro Bolsonaro
B:41% H:40% V:45% P:38% M:43% B:39%
5. Polls indicate that Bolsonaro Bolsonaro Average* Average* Average* FSB**
and Haddad will compete in the B: 41% x H: 39% C: 42% x B: 38% B: 41% x M: 36% B: 43% x A: 36%
runoff.
Alckmin Ciro
V:40% P:32% Alckmin
V:40% P:34% A:39% M:36% TIE
6. Only Ciro and Haddad will likely
support one another in a runoff. Alckmin Average* Average* Average* Average*
A: 36% x H: 32% C: 39% x A: 31% A: 35% x M: 32% B: 39% x A: 37%
*Average of the last 6 polls (DataFolha (x2), Ibope, Ipespe, FSB e MDA) **Research institutions 20WHAT TO EXPECT IF ELECTED
▪ Bolsonaro should adopt a similar strategy to Trump and try to fulfill some of his campaign pledges early in his term. However, many promises require
congressional approval and lack consensus. At the same time, we believe he would maintain the more conciliatory tone he has adopted in the final months of
the campaign. Already there are signs of approximation with some leaders of the center parties, which would provide a window of opportunity to approve
reforms and controversial projects in the first months of his term. One of the dangers, for example, would be to reintroduce a financial transactions tax if the
negotiation to create a national VAT fails. His biggest challenge will be to overcome amateurism and attract competent people to head key ministries.
▪ Haddad has also given signs that, at least in the economic field, he must adopt more orthodox measures. However, there will be pressure from the party and
part of its support base not to re-establish fiscal balance and reverse several of the policies adopted by the Temer government (e.g.: liberalization of labor
laws). In the event of extreme radicalization, there is a possibility that the military would attempt to respond in some fashion. However, this is not our base
scenario. If the PT manages to maintain the size of its coalition in the Chamber, Haddad will probably seek and negotiate to form a minimal support base in
Congress, reducing the temptation of radicalization.
▪ Ciro must use his political experience to set up a ministerial team that will guarantee him a majority in Congress. His biggest challenge will be to avoid
criticism that he is reverting to business as usual and aligning with the same politicians as the Temer or Dilma government. In economic policy he could be
more adventurous than Haddad in pushing leftist policies in line with his philosophies on national development. He would favor the industrial sector and block
any attempts to privatize state-owned companies.
▪ Alckmin will most likely use much of his political capital in the early months of his government to try to approve pension reform. Although he now has the
formal support of the center and a likely simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies, he may face the same opposition and betrayal experienced by Temer
from within his own coalition. Corruption investigations are expected to be a distraction, but they would not lead to a political crisis since they could not lead to
impeachment on legal grounds. However, unlike the state government, he will face frequent crises of all kinds, such as a possible increase in strikes and
demonstrations.
▪ Marina should have no difficulty in setting up a cabinet of notables, for example, she would maintain the same economic team that now occupies the Ministries
of Finance and Planning. Despite stating that she wants to discuss pension reform calmly, her top economic advisers know urgent action is needed in the first
months of the administration. While environmental advocacy is her flagship platform, we do not expect drastic measures in this area, such as suspending the
granting of environmental licenses. Her greatest difficulty will be to negotiate with Congress. Her theory of governing with the good of each party will hardly
work with the Congress that will be (re) elected in October.
21SÃO PAULO BRASÍLIA
info@concordia-pas.com
www.concordia-pas.com
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