Barriers to large-scale electrification of passenger cars for a fossil independent Sweden by 2030 - LOVISA WESTERLUND
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EXAMENSARBETE INOM TEKNIK, GRUNDNIVÅ, 15 HP STOCKHOLM, SVERIGE 2021 Barriers to large-scale electrification of passenger cars for a fossil independent Sweden by 2030 LOVISA WESTERLUND KTH SKOLAN FÖR INDUSTRIELL TEKNIK OCH MANAGEMENT
Abstract
Passenger cars account for a large share of Sweden’s total greenhouse gas
emissions and contribute to increased climate impact. In a climate policy
framework previously adopted by the government, it was determined that Sweden
will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by 2045.
An important area of action to achieve the environmental quality objectives is
the transition from internal combustion engine cars to electric cars as these
have very low emissions or no emissions at all. Despite the electric car’s
many advantages, there are several barriers to enabling the transition to a
fossil independent passenger car fleet. This thesis aims to describe barriers to
a national largescale electrification of passenger cars from an industrial and
governmental point of view. Through semistructured expert interviews from
the public and private sector followed by thematic analysis, several themes
were generated from the interview data. The results from the qualitative study
indicate that there are a total of six barriers to achieve 1 million electric cars
by 2030: lack of charging infrastructure, unbalanced political instruments,
uncertain technological development, high purchase price, dissemination of
incorrect information and electric car export, which can be complied as three main
barriers: lack of charging infrastructure, unbalanced political instruments and
dissemination of incorrect information.
Keywords
Electric car, Electrification, Environment, Climate, Emissions, Infrastructure,
Charging
iSammanfattning
Personbilar står för en stor del av Sveriges totala växthusgasutsläpp och bidrar
till ökad klimatpåverkan. I ett klimatpolitiskt ramverk som tidigare antogs
av regeringen så fastställdes det att Sverige inte ska ha några nettoutsläpp av
växthusgaser i atmosfären år 2045. Ett viktigt åtgärdsområde för att uppnå de
miljökvalitativa målen är omställningen från förbränningsmotorbilar till eldrivna
bilar då dessa har mycket låga utsläpp eller inga utsläpp alls. Trots elbilens
många fördelar så finns det flertalet hinder för att möjliggöra omställningen
till en fossiloberoende personbilsflotta. Den här rapporten syftar till att
beskriva hinder för en nationell storskalig elektrifiering av personbilar från ett
industriellt och statligt perspektiv. Genom semistrukturerade expertintervjuer
från offentlig och privat sektor följt av tematisk analys så har flera teman
genererats från intervjudatan. Resultatet från den kvalitativa studien indikerar
att det sammantaget finns sex hinder för att uppnå en miljon elbilar år 2030: brist
på laddinfrastruktur, obalanserade politiska styrmedel, osäker teknisk utveckling,
högt inköpspris, spridning av inkorrekt information och elbilsexport, som kan
sammanställas som tre huvudsakliga barriärer: brist på laddinfrastruktur,
obalanserade politiska styrmedel och spridning av inkorrekt information.
Nyckelord
Eldriven bil, Elektrifiering, Miljö, Klimat, Utsläpp, Infrastruktur, Laddning
iiContents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Purpose and problem statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Previous research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 Development and growth of the electric car industry 3
2.1 The rise and fall of the electric car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.1.1 The revival of the electric car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.1.2 Political instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 The Swedish government’s environmental objectives . . . . . . . . 6
2.2.1 The European Union’s environmental objectives . . . . . . . 6
2.2.2 1 million electric cars by 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.3 A sustainable passenger car fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.4 Previous studies analyzing barriers for electric car adoption . . . . . 9
3 Method 11
3.1 Choice of method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.2 Selection of literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.3 Semistructured expert interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.3.1 Selection of interviewees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.3.2 Introduction of interview objects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.3.3 Processing interview data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.4 Evaluation of choice of method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4 Result 17
4.1 Lack of charging infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4.2 Unbalanced political instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
4.3 Uncertain technological development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.4 High purchase price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.5 Dissemination of incorrect information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4.6 Electric car export . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
5 Discussion 22
5.1 Lack of charging infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
iii5.2 Unbalanced political instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.3 Uncertain technological development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.4 High purchase price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.5 Dissemination of incorrect information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
5.6 Electric car export . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
5.7 Societal and ethical aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
6 Conclusion 26
7 Further investigations 27
8 References 28
iv1 Introduction
With an increased sense of urgency to reduce climate impact the past years, the
Swedish government has decided that Sweden will not have any net emissions of
greenhouse gases by 2045, requiring major changes in society [1]. Many measures
have been taken which has resulted in a reduction of passenger car emissions
in recent years, which is particularly interesting as passenger cars account for a
large share of emissions [2]. Despite a downward trend in emissions, the number
of registered passenger cars has steadily increased over the past decade and is
expected to continue to do so [3, 4]. At the same time, the European Union reduces
the average carbon dioxide limit every five years making it very difficult for car
manufacturers to produce passenger cars that reach this limit [5].
An important area of action to achieve the environmental objective and satisfy the
European Union’s carbon dioxide limit is the transition from internal combustion
engine cars to electric cars. Despite the electric car’s many advantages, there are
several barriers to enabling the transition to a fossil independent passenger car
fleet. The government estimates that at least 20 percent of the national passenger
car fleet, i.e. one million cars, should be electrically powered by 2030 in order to
achieve net zero emissions by 2045 [6].
The goal of this thesis is to describe barriers in order for Sweden to reach 1 million
electric cars by 2030.
1.1 Purpose and problem statement
This thesis is aimed to describe barriers to a national largescale electrification of
passenger cars from an industrial and governmental point of view. The problem
statement to investigate is therefore what are the barriers for Sweden to reach 1
million electric passenger cars by 2030?
The transition from internal combustion engine cars to electric cars is complex as
it requires cooperation between the state, municipalities and the industry. The
technological development has accelerated rapidly over the past decade and the
share of electric passenger cars has steadily increased. Despite the progress of
technological development, many obstacles remain for the electric car to diffuse
1to the majority of consumers and become a given choice when investing in a new
car.
The study is limited to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plugin Hybrid Electric
Vehicles (PHEV) registered in Sweden, which through this thesis will have the
collective name electric cars.
1.2 Previous research
Previous research in the field of electric cars has increased significantly the last
couple of years. Research linked to the Swedish governmental objectives has
focused on how different types of fuels, such as biofuels, biogas and fuel cells, can
be used to achieve the environmental objectives. Other research focus on barriers
in other geographical areas such as Europe, Scandinavia or globally. Furthermore,
some research have focused on barriers for electric vehicle adoption using other
methods such as quantitative research method. Previous research related to the
problem statement is presented in the background section.
22 Development and growth of the electric car
industry
2.1 The rise and fall of the electric car
Rechargeable batteries and electric motors are not a modern invention and as
early as the end of the 19th century, the first electric car were driven [7]. The
popularity of electric cars grew and had several advantages over the internal
combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) that was developed at about the same time.
The electric cars did not smell, were quiet, did not require a manual start and were
driven without changing gears [8]. The electric car dominated the market during
a decade and expectations of its technical development were very high. During
this decade, there was much praise from inventors and innovators about how the
development of the leadacid battery would lead to the electric car’s breakthrough
on the mass market. Simultaneously, the internal combustion engine technology
was developed at a rapid pace which resulted in increasing speeds and longer
mileage. The electric car’s breakthrough on the mass market never happened and
by 1914, the internal combustion engine (ICE) had taken over the market.
The electric car sales decreased and failed to remain on the market. Blaming
the leadacid battery’s short range in comparison with the ICE for the electric
car failure is too simplified as there is other aspects to consider. There
were many barriers to overcome at the time but the main barriers that might
explain the failure was underdeveloped charging infrastructure, nonexisting
battery exchange and high expectations of the technological development. The
underdeveloped charging infrastructure created a lot of issues for electric
car owners. The leadacid battery needed recharging frequently and the
actual charging of the car was time consuming. Furthermore, neither the
battery plug nor the electric car’s operating voltage was standardized, which
created uncertainty regarding the usage of the car. Consumers expected rapid
technological development of the leadacid battery due to the need of lighter, more
powerful and more durable battery to meet the expectations. It has showed that
expectations play an important role of forming the direction and pace of the spread
of new technology [7].
3It was not until the mid2000’s when car manufacturers began massproducing
electric cars that charging stations became a necessity. Support and rules have
been introduced to deploy charging infrastructure where new constructions of
apartment buildings require parking spaces with charging points. Additionally,
the government has allocated support to cover white spots on the charging station
map, i.e. geographical areas without charging stations [9, 10].
2.1.1 The revival of the electric car
Several efforts and initiatives were done to start manufacturing and producing
electric cars again, but the previous barriers remained and the attempt failed.
During the 1970’s, a federal research effort were done about battery technology
with the purpose ”to promote electric vehicle technologies and to demonstrate
the commercial feasibility of electric vehicles”. The Federal research program
failed due to ”the immature state of several key technologies that lead to economic,
performance and reliability handicaps that were simply too great to overcome” [7].
Having in mind at this time that the internal combustion engine had dominated
the market for the past 60 years and few efforts had been made to develop the
battery technology.
The commercialization of the lithiumion battery in 1991 was an important
technical development to further develop the electric car. The lithiumion battery
have many advantages such as long life cycle, low cost and high energy density
resulting in long runtime [11].
A crucial player in the electric car’s revival and commercialization is the electric
car manufacturer Tesla Motors, which was the first to massproduce electric cars
with lithiumion battery cells and delivered the first electric car in 2008 [12].
Several major car manufacturers were convinced that lithiumion technology was
a decade away, but had to quickly rethink when the Tesla Roadster was delivered
to the first customers [13]. Shortly afterwards, several major car manufacturers
such as Nissan, Volvo and Renault introduced electric car models to the consumer
market and began selling in Sweden in 2011. Sales growth was slow and in 2014
4,300 BEV and PHEV were registered in Sweden, which can be compared with
Norway where almost 19,000 electric cars were registered during the same year,
4despite the fact that Sweden has almost twice as large a passenger car fleet [14–
16].
The slow sales growth following the introduction of the electric car in the Swedish
market has not stopped the exponential growth that has taken place in recent
years. At the end of 2019, there were 96,608 registered BEV and PHEV in Sweden
and a year later there were a total of 179,035 registered BEV and PHEV, which is
almost a doubling of electric cars [14]. During the same year, the total passenger
car fleet increased by only 1 percent, which means that almost every electric car
purchase replaced a fossilpowered car. The exponential growth that has taken
place in has also taken place globally since the mid2010s and is mainly due
to three important areas: improvement and development of battery technology,
policy instruments that support emission reduction and standards and regulations
that promote energy efficiency and reduce petroleum consumption [17].
2.1.2 Political instruments
After the electric car’s introduction to the Swedish market, the Swedish
government quickly decided to introduce subsidies for electric cars and in 2012,
consumers received SEK 40,000 in subsidies for an electric car purchase, so
called super green car premium. Despite the subsidy, electric car sales went poorly
and subsequent studies have shown that two out of three PHEVs would have been
bought and registered even without the subsidy. Decisionmakers usually have
the perception that more policy instruments give the desired effect more quickly,
which is not always the case if different rules and policy instruments contradict
each other. This may have been a reason why the super green car premium did
not have the desired effect as there were several active instruments in 2014, such
as reduced benefit value for green cars, carbon dioxidedifferentiated vehicle tax
and vehicle tax exemption [18, 19].
These instruments were in place until 2018 when the government chose to
introduce a new system which is the system used today, the socalled bonusmalus
system. With this system, the consumer who buys an environmentally friendly
car receives a bonus that is based on how many grams of carbon dioxide the car
emits and the lower the carbon dioxide emissions, the higher the bonus. If, on
5the other hand, the consumer chooses to buy a petrol or dieselpowered car, the
car will receive an increased vehicle tax for the first three years [20]. In 2021,
the government has decided that the environmentally conscious behavior will be
further rewarded by an increased bonus amount when purchasing an electric car
and targeted subsidies when installing a charging box in the home [21].
2.2 The Swedish government’s environmental objectives
In 2017, the Swedish Parliament adopted a climate policy framework with
longterm and measurable climate goals, which is a revision of the original
environmental quality goals established by the Parliament in 1999 [22, 23]. The
main climate goal in decided in the framework stated that by 2045, Sweden
will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in order to
subsequently achieve negative emissions. In order to achieve net zero emissions
by 2045, several milestones were adopted, one of which stated that emissions
from domestic transport, excluding domestic flights, should be reduced by at least
70 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. The Government’s definition of net zero
emissions is when greenhouse gas emissions from Swedish territory has been
reduced by 85 percent by 2045 compared to 1990.
To achieve the milestone by 2030, three key initiatives have been set to reduce
emissions from the transport sector. One of these approaches is the transition
from fossilfueled vehicles to electricpowered vehicles [1].
During late 2020, it was stated that the environmental goal of net zero emissions
by 2045 will not be achieved, therefore no milestones set for greenhouse gas
emissions will be achieved as planned. The Swedish Environmental Protection
Agency estimates that emissions will be reduced by 4651 percent by 2030
compared to 2010. For the goal of net zero emissions by 2045, the estimation
is an emission reduction of 5354 percent by 2045 compared to 1990 [23].
2.2.1 The European Union’s environmental objectives
The Paris Agreement and the twodegree goal are two synonymous and well
established concepts that have been discussed worldwide since the agreement
entered into force in 2016. The twodegree goal is part of the Paris Agreement
6where all countries in the world are committed to taking measures to keep
global temperature rise below 2 degrees. Every five years, the EU tightens the
requirement for carbon dioxide emissions from newly manufactured passenger
cars [24]. In 2021, the limit for the permitted average carbon dioxide emissions
for newly manufactured passenger cars will be lowered to 95 g/km, from
the previously permitted limit of 130 g/km. The continuously tightening
requirements for carbon dioxide emissions make it very difficult for car
manufacturers to continue to produce fossilfueled passenger cars that stay below
the permitted limit. If carbon dioxide emissions are exceeded, car manufacturers
risk heavy fines. In 2025, the current limit will be further reduced to 81 g/km
[25].
2.2.2 1 million electric cars by 2030
Total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden have decreased since the 1990s and
amounted to 50.9 million tonnes in 2019. The main reason for the reduction
in emissions is seen in the industrial sector and the electricity and district
heating sector, where many measures have been taken to reduce climate impact.
Emissions from domestic transport have also decreased, despite the fact that the
number of registered passenger cars in traffic has steadily increased. Passenger
cars are the type of vehicle in the transport sector that accounts for the largest
share of emissions and account for 20 percent of the total greenhouse gas
emissions illustrated in figure 2.1 [2, 3]. The need for transport is growing at the
same time as emission requirements are becoming stricter and a conversion to
electric vehicles is necessary to reduce the climate impact of domestic transport
[26].
The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not happening fast enough and
needs to accelerate both nationally and globally to reduce emissions and reach net
zero emissions. For this reason, the government called in investigators who were
commissioned to map measures to reduce emissions from the transport sector and
consequently achieve a fossilindependent vehicle fleet by 2030. The investigation
showed that at least 20 percent of the total passenger car fleet must be electric
cars to achieve a fossilindependent vehicle fleet by 2030, which is illustrated in
7Figure 2.1: The proportion of greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport,
divided into vehicle type [27].
Figure 2.2 in relation to other fuels [6]. 20 percent of today’s passenger car fleet
corresponds to approximately 1 million electric cars [3].
Figure 2.2: Current and future traffic work divided into fuel types according to the
government inquiry ”Fossil independency on the way” [6].
82.3 A sustainable passenger car fleet
The number of registered passenger cars is steadily increasing and The
Swedish Transport Agency reported 4,950,000 total registered passenger cars
in December 2020 [3]. Of the total passenger car fleet during the same month,
179,035 passenger cars were registered as BEV or PHEV which makes 3,6 percent
of the total passenger car fleet. 1 million cars is based on the assumption that the
total number of passenger cars will be equal in 2030, which is unlikely based on
historical statistics but simplifies further assumptions [14, 16]. To reach the goal
of 1 million electric cars by 2030, 820,965 ICEV in current passenger car fleet need
to be replaced by electric cars. Assuming yearly linear increase of electric cars,
roughly 91,000 ICEV needs to be replaced by electric cars each year until 2030,
which is exactly the number of registered electric cars during 2020 [14].
A good indication of how good the country’s charging infrastructure is, is the ratio
of the number of charging stations divided by the number of electric cars. This
is defined as Charging Points per Electric Vehicle (CPEV) and according to the
European Union’s recommendation, the ratio should be at least 0.1 CPEV [28].
In December 2020, there were 11,628 charging points in Sweden and 186,905
rechargeable vehicles, resulting in a ratio of 0,062 CPEV [29]
The purchase price for a new ICEV or electric car can vary a lot. Last year’s most
sols car in Sweden was Kia Niro with a minimum purchase price of SEK 290,800
[30]. Comparing this with the most sold electric car during 2020, this was
Volkswagen ID.3 with a minimum purchase price of SEK 434,900 [31]. Looking
at the total life cycle cost for an ICEV compared to an electric car, previous studies
has shown that the total life cycle cost for an electric car is lower, compared to an
ICEV [32]. It is believed that the ICEV and the electric car will reach price parity
by 2025 [33].
2.4 Previous studies analyzing barriers for electric car
adoption
Since the inquiry Fossil Independency on the way, several studies have been
published that examine barriers of a largescale electrification of the passenger
9car fleet in order to achieve national environmental objectives as well as European
Union’s environmental objectives.
A recently published article The rise of electric vehicles – 2020 status and future
expectations leading researchers in the field of electrification summarizes the
current state of research and future expectations of electric vehicles. In the study,
the researchers summarized barriers for consumers to invest in an electric car,
these includes skepticism towards new technology, lack of charging infrastructure,
high purchase price and delivery restrictions such as car models that are not
available. In addition, adoption of advanced technology has been underestimated
in previous forecasts [17].
In another recent study Battery electric vehicle adoption in Denmark and
Sweden: Recent changes related factors and policy implications 1200
Swedish people participated and answered questions about electric car use and
preconceived notions. Three aspects were addressed for increased use of BEV
and PHEV which includes deployment of charging infrastructure, longterm
and clear political instruments to support consumers and tailored marketing
towards potential electric car buyers. In addition, the dissemination of accurate
and comprehensible information is recommended in order to avoid negative
dissemination effects [34].
In BIL Sweden’s report Roadmap for fossilfree competitiveness: The automotive
industry light duty vehicles, there are primarily two areas of development
for a largescale electrification of passenger cars. These two areas are political
instruments such as subsidies, vehicle taxes, fuel taxes and benefit car rules and
deployment of charging infrastructure where, above all, fast charging along major
roads needs to be expanded [25].
A study from 2020 Understanding the sociotechnical nexus of Nordic electric
vehicle (EV) barriers: A qualitative discussion of range, price, charging and
knowledge conducted 227 expert interviews from the Nordic region to define
barriers to electric vehicle adoption. These barriers were identified as driving
range, price and charging infrastructure. In addition, results also showed
that in barriers in general are highly interconnected and connects to consumer
knowledge and experience [35].
103 Method
This section describes chosen research methods, data collection approach and
the rationality behind used methods and selected data. Experts in the field
from various companies, organizations and governmental institutions have been
selected and interviewed. Finally, the choice of method and potential sources of
error are discussed.
3.1 Choice of method
In order to describe required adjustments for a national largescale electrification
of cars, an inductive research approach was used. An inductive research aims to
develop a theory that begins with observations and patterns, unlike a deductive
research approach that aims to use an already existing theory that ends with a
confirmation, or no confirmation, of the original theory. The approach begins
with collection of information such as data and facts which then generates patterns
and theories from the data analysis. In this study, these patterns and theories
were tested through semistructured expert interviews to confirm or contradict
the collected data and facts, which can consequently provide the study with further
observations before a theory is reached [36]. Since the research question in this
study has no unambiguous answer or underlying theory, the inductive research
approach was chosen as this is based on learning from experience, which in
this case is a comprehensive literature study followed by semistructured expert
interviews.
3.2 Selection of literature
KTH Library and Science Direct were initially used to get an overview of existing
research, articles and reports concerning rechargeable vehicles and action areas
for increased use. Keywords used in the search on both platforms were, for
example, electric car, Battery Electric Vehicle, Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle,
electrification of passenger cars, charging infrastructure, environmental objective
Sweden and fossil independent vehicle fleet. Reports and investigations from the
government’s database have been of great value for obtaining information on the
11decisions and rules that have been taken in connection with the environmental
quality goals and political instruments. In the database, there have also been
investigations carried out by various authorities. In addition, the interviewees
in this study have recommended studies and literature as a supplement to the
literature study that has been done.
3.3 Semistructured expert interviews
Semistructured interviews are conducted with one person at a time and usually
have larger question areas rather than precise detailed questions that are followed
up with why or how questions. In a semistructured interview, it is more likely
that the interviewee’s subjective perspective is expressed in an openly designed
situation, than a standardized interview or structured interview. Subjective
theory refers to the interviewees’ complex knowledge base on the subject being
studied, which appears in openended questions more than in closedended
questions.
Expert interview is a form of semistructured interview where the interest lies
in the interviewee’s knowledge in a specific area rather than the interviewee as
a person. Expert interviews are integrated into the study as a group instead of
an individual case. The definition of an expert is very difficult to define and
depends on the study’s problem formulation, research question and theoretical
background. Simply put, an expert is defined as a person who is very competent
in a certain subject matter. Since this study aims to compare data and differences
in expert knowledge in the field of electrification, expert interviews are well suited
to be used as a standalone method if relevant people and a sufficient number of
interviews are conducted [37].
All interviewees were contacted via email, telephone call or text message and one
interview was conducted via video conference while the rest were conducted via
telephone conversation. All interviews were audio recorded with the interviewee’s
approval.
123.3.1 Selection of interviewees
The starting point for the selection of interviewees was to choose companies,
organizations and governmental institutions from a broad perspective. Initially,
Vattenfall, BIL Sweden, Power Circle, the Swedish Energy Agency and the
Swedish Transport Administration were selected as all of them were published
or participated in research and studies linked to the electrification of the vehicle
fleet to achieve fossil independence. Two specific requirements profiles were
included in this study, one of which was the perspective of a politician in Sweden
responsible for environmental and/or infrastructure issues, preferably in a city
and the other requirement profile was the research perspective on the issue.
The selection of interviewees within Vattenfall, BIL Sweden, Power Circle, the
Swedish Energy Agency and the Swedish Transport Administration was based
on the person’s role within the organization. Another criterion was that the
interviewee should have a broader perspective in the electrification area rather
than narrow expertise. Lastly, a list was created with relevant experts from
companies, organizations and governmental institutions where some of them are
not mentioned here because they chose not to participate in the study.
3.3.2 Introduction of interview objects
A total of 7 people were interviewed from different companies, organizations and
governmental institutions and their role, associated organization and background
are presented below.
Annika Ramsköld, Vice President Corporate Sustainability at
Vattenfall
Annika Ramsköld has worked at Vattenfall for 30 years. Since 2014, she is Vice
President of Corporate Sustainability and has been the initiator of several projects
aimed to electrify cars. Among other things, she started Vattenfall’s program for
electric cars, was the chairman of Elbilsupphandligen together with Stockholm
stad, initiator to Roadmap Sweden and chariman for the joint venture between
Volvo Cars and Vattenfall V2 PHEV Partntership.
Daniel Helldén, Vice Mayor Traffic Division in City of Stockholm
13After the 2014 election, Daniel Helldén was appointed Vice Mayor of Traffic
Division in the city of Stockholm after previously being opposition councilor for
the Swedish Green Party. As Vice Mayor of Traffic Division, he is responsible
for all issues regarding traffic and in addition, he is the chairman of the
parking company Stockholm parking. Daniel has a PhD in political science from
Stockholm University.
Jens Hagman, Senior Researcher Electromobility at RISE Research
Institute of Sweden
Jens Hagman has a PhD in machine design with focus on electromobility and
defended his dissertation ”Diffusion of Battery Electric Vehicles: The Role of Total
Cost Ownership” during 2020 at KTH. Since the beginning of 2021, he is a senior
researcher in the unit of electromobility at RISE. For the past three years, Jens
has been writing newsletters for omEV that analyzes electric road vehicles.
Jessica Alenius, Vice CEO at BIL Sweden
Jessica Alenius started at BIL Sweden 2008. BIL Sweden is a trade association
for almost all Swedish vehicle manufacturers. As Vice CEO, she is responsible
communication and influence, which includes politics and instruments related
to vehicles. Jessica has previously worked with traffic policy and in 2013, she
participated as an expert in the government’s investigation ”Fossil independency
on the way”.
Johanna Lakso, CEO at Power Circle
Since 2019, Johanna Lakso is the CEO of Power Circle, an interest organization
for the electric power industry. As CEO, she works mainly with questions
regarding our future power system and electrification of the transport sector and
charging infrastructure. Johanna has previously worked at Svenska kraftnät and
Energimyndigheten with electrical systems and how they need to be adjusted for
our modern society.
Peter Kasche, Programme Manager Research and Innovation at
Energimyndigheten
Peter Kasche has worked at Energimyndigheten for 20 years with transport issues.
14Before Energimyndigheten, he worked with environmental issues for 10 years. He
is currently Programme Manager at the department of Research and Innovation
and responsible for a research program with approximately 100 ongoing projects
per year. The research projects research everything related to environmental
vehicles, from a broad point of view.
Rein Jüriado, Cheif Strategist at Trafikverket
For the past 5 years, Rein Jüriado has worked as Cheif Strategist at Trafikverket
primarily with research and innovation issues related to the transport sector.
He is currently project manager for the Swedish Transport Administration’s
project Triple F transition to a fossilfree freight transport system through
research and innovation. Rein has previously worked at Vinnova with transport
innovation.
3.3.3 Processing interview data
The interview data was processed through inductive thematic analysis, a method
used to analyze qualitative data by identifying patterns in a data set. An
inductive approach to thematic analysis means that the development of themes
is determined from the data set. Processing interview data through thematic
analysis can be illustrated by a funnel where the process goes through 6 phases
in a topdown approach shown in Figure 3.1.
The first phase is familiarization where the transcript is read several times to
understand and become familiar with what each interviewee has said. During the
coding phase, time is spent finding keywords and highlighting sentences that say
the same thing and seem important for the problem statement. The next step is the
phase creating themes, which means searching through the coded material and
finding broad themes and patterns and then sorting the interview data into each
theme. In the phase reviewing themes, the themes that were set in the previous
phase are checked to ensure that the selected themes represent all interview data.
In the next phase, defining themes, a detailed analysis of each theme is made
to ensure that the names of themes are correctly reflected in the interview data
collected. Finally, the interview data are woven together and the analysis is placed
in its context and in relation to the literature study [38].
15Figure 3.1: Thematic analysis visualised in a topdown approach
3.4 Evaluation of choice of method
The inductive research approach has certain limitations and shortcomings where
the approach is usually based on incomplete patterns and observations. For
example, it is very difficult to get an overview of existing research and studies on
electric vehicles as these have increased significantly in recent years, which results
in the fact that there are most likely several obstacles to a largescale electrification
of the passenger car fleet that are not considered in this study [39].
It is very difficult to identify the right experts and determine who is an expert in
a certain field. In addition, individuals with a high level of knowledge in their
area of expertise often have a role in the business world where there is a lack
of time for these types of activities. For some research questions and problem
formulations, knowledge of a specific group of individuals may be too narrow to
answer the problem [37].
Thematic analysis is a very flexible method and can be adapted to each research
need and study, however, the flexibility can make the themes that are developed
inconsistent and uniformly deficient [40].
164 Result
This section presents the result of semistructured expert interviews from the
public and private sectors followed by thematic analysis that generated several
themes from the interview data. Themes and categories that only one of the
respondents mentioned and discussed during the interview have been excluded
in the results section as these can be referred to as outliers in a set of data. The
six themes that emerged as barriers to largescale electrification of passenger
cars were charging infrastructure, political instruments, technical development,
purchase price, dissemination of information and export of electric cars.
4.1 Lack of charging infrastructure
Deployment of charging infrastructure was stated by all experts as one of the
biggest barriers to increase the share of electric cars in the national market. So
far, the vast majority of electric car buyers have been homeowners due to clear
subsidies and rules for installation of charging and charging at home and in
addition, homeowners are guaranteed charging during the night. Several of the
experts mentions the uncertainty among consumers living in larger cities or in
sparsely populated areas, where different barriers arise such as multidwelling
buildings, public charging and fast charging as well as white spots.
Multidwelling buildings
Five out of seven experts pointed out that a large part of Sweden’s population lives
in larger cities and multidwelling buildings where consumers do not have control
over installing charging points. Clear rules and political incentives are deficient,
which leads to property owners not daring or wanting to invest in deployment of
charging infrastructure in existing properties. There are both legal and cost issues
that have not yet been resolved. It is also mentioned that the National Board of
Housing, Building and Planning has certain requirements of charging availability
in new multidwelling buildings, however, this is insufficient for the need for
charging in the near future. One of the experts mentions this as a consequence
of the fact that the legislation has not kept pace with the rapid development in
recent years.
17Lack of public charging and fast charging
The interview data indicated two different barriers regarding public charging and
fast charging, one of which was parking spaces and the other was charging along
car roads. As with multidwelling buildings, there are no clear rules and political
incentives for public parking spaces. One of the experts mentioned Stockholm
as an example, which has almost 35,000 parking spaces where very few of these
offer charging options. Included in the latest budget goal in Stockholm is a
major deployment of charging infrastructure where all parking spaces in street
environment should have charging infrastructure. Another expert expressed that
deployment of charging infrastructure rather should be controlled by the degree
of utilization of the charging points for a costeffective deployment. There is a
lack of market forces in the country’s sparsely populated areas for companies and
organizations to see the value in investing in charging infrastructure. Three of the
experts point out that the government has identified what they call ”white spots”,
which are geographical points in Sweden where no market forces want to develop
charging infrastructure due to low volume of electric cars.
Lack of cooperation between charging operators
There are several large companies that have chosen to invest in the deployment
of charging infrastructure, but there is no official cooperation between these
1
charging operators. One of the experts mentioned that there is no common
payment solution for the existing charging infrastructure which may prevent
consumers from choosing an electric car. However, it was mentioned during one
of the interviews that collaboration between several large charging operators has
started to develop a strategy for how to collaborate in deployment of charging
infrastructure.
4.2 Unbalanced political instruments
The interviewed experts agreed that political instruments have been crucial for
consumers’ increased interest in electric cars. The introduction of the Bonus
Malus tax system had a clear effect where sales of new electric cars increased.
1
At the time writing this thesis, no official cooperation were known. However, on June 15th, it
was announced that Vattenfall and E.ON have developed a joint payment solution [41].
18Balancing different political instruments is difficult and complex. Too high
subsidies create room for car manufacturers to continue to have high purchase
price and high margins, while too low subsidies motivate the consumer to
choose a cheaper alternative, which in this case is an ICEV. All experts are
satisfied with the current Bonus Malus tax system, but several of them point
out the lack of subsidies for deployment of charging infrastructure in addition
to current subsidies for installing charging at home. For companies or property
owners who choose to install charging points on their own or public land, there
is currently no official subsidies available. The lack of governmental efforts
and support creates difficulties for companies and property owners to invest in
charging infrastructure as there is rarely commercial profitability. Continued
subsidies for public charging in sparsely populated areas is necessary to cure
range anxiety among potential electric car buyers and decrease the uncertainty
regarding electric car fuel.
4.3 Uncertain technological development
The technical development was mentioned by two experts as a potential barrier
to a largescale electrification of the passenger car fleet, where the lithiumion
battery was the main focus. Sufficient raw material supply for the production
of lithiumion batteries is a prerequisite to produce more electric cars and meet
future demand. Furthermore, car manufacturers must manufacture and produce
attractive cars that consumers want to buy. One of the experts adds that many
people underestimate the role of car manufacturers in transition to a fossil
independent car fleet as their separate decisions can influence consumers’ choices.
If a car manufacturer chooses to exclusively sell electric cars, consequently there
is only one choice left for the consumer provided that the consumer chooses that
particular car manufacturer.
4.4 High purchase price
Three of the experts mention the purchase price as a barrier for consumers to
choose an electric car over ICEV. The basis for the barrier is that consumers stare
blindly at the purchase price of the car and do not take the total life cycle cost into
19account when buying a new car. Two of the experts point out that the total life
cycle cost of an electric car is lower than that of the ICE. The three experts referred
to different studies that reached the same conclusion: in 2025, the electric car is
expected to reach price parity with the ICEV. One of the experts adds that the
exponential growth that has taken place in electric cars in recent years is due to
the fact that we are approaching price stability.
4.5 Dissemination of incorrect information
The dissemination of information that has taken place about the environmental
benefits of electric cars and the total life cycle cost has not reached consumers,
three of the experts believe. One mention that there is a lot of conversations
regarding energy consumption and emissions to produce the electric car’s battery,
but almost nothing about the energy consumption of extracting oil used in the
ICE. The expert continues with saying that ”you compare apples and pears”
when calculating and showing information from that point of view. Part of
the responsibility is considered to lie with the government for the correct
dissemination of information about the electric car’s environmental benefits and
the impact of the ICEV. An additional part of dissemination of information is the
lack of knowledge about the total life cycle cost of electric cars. Few consumers
are aware of the lower total life cycle cost of an electric car compared to that of an
ICEV.
4.6 Electric car export
Sweden’s environmental quality goals and existing data are based on the fact that
no electric cars are exported from Sweden which previously has been a problem,
two of the experts mentions. Due to Sweden’s high subsidies for electric car
purchases compared to other countries, it has been misused by buying the electric
car in Sweden with existing subsidies, in order to sell and export the electric
car. It does not matter where in the world the electric car is driven from a
global environmental perspective. But it is required that electric cars purchased
in Sweden also stay there to achieve the national environmental objectives. The
consequence for electric car export is that subsidies disappear to other countries
20and the electric car cannot be included in the total passenger car fleet.
215 Discussion
The results of this study indicate that lack of charging infrastructure, unbalanced
political instruments, uncertain technological development, high purchase price,
dissemination of incorrect information and electric car export are barriers that
need to be overcome to achieve one million electric cars by 2030.
5.1 Lack of charging infrastructure
The data suggests lack of charging infrastructure to be one of the larger barriers
to a largescale electrification of passenger cars since all the experts mentioned
and discussed this barrier. The interview data shows that the lack of charging
infrastructure can be divided into two subcategories: multidwelling buildings
and lack of public charging, which clarifies where the barrier is located in the
infrastructure. The reason for excluding the barrier lack of cooperation between
charging operators is due to the lack of support from the literature study or
previous research presented in this thesis. Lack of charging infrastructure are
consistent with all four previous research studies found in section 2.4 as well as
in the literature study. This may be explained by the fact that charging points
per electric vehicle (CPEV) were 0,06 in the end of last year, while the European
Union recommends that CPEV should be 0,1. This indicates that there are too
few charging points in relation to the number of rechargeable vehicles, regardless
of the geographical spread of the charging points. This is an important issue for
further research since lack of charging infrastructure was one of the main reasons
why the electric car failed to stay on the market 100 years ago. One interesting
finding from the interview data was that two of the experts were not in line on the
deployment of public charging infrastructure in parking lots. One of the experts
mentioned that Stockholm’s budget target aims for almost every parking space in a
street environment to have charging infrastructure. The other expert mentioned
that such a goal can easily become costineffective and that one should instead
think about the utilization rate for each charging point. The disagreement is
interesting and shows that there is no established plan for how the electrification
of passenger cars will take place.
225.2 Unbalanced political instruments
Unbalanced political instruments emerged from the interview data and indicates
that it is difficult to balance political instruments to provide the desired effect.
Two of the previous studies in section 2.4 support this result. Furthermore,
all of the experts seemed to agree that the current Bonus Malus tax system
have had a positive effect but point out the lack of subsidies for deployment of
charging infrastructure in addition to the chargeathome subsidy. Unbalanced
political instruments, such as too high subsidies might result in car manufactures
maintaining high margins for the cars or other countries trying to export
electric cars from Sweden due to the lower purchase price. It can be suggested
that balancing political instruments can help support deployment of charging
infrastructure as well as keep the electric cars in the country. How to
balance political instrument remains unanswered and left to the government and
authorities to investigate.
5.3 Uncertain technological development
The interview data indicates various uncertain technological developments as
barriers to reach 1 million electric cars by 2030, the uncertainty focused on the
production capacity of lithiumion battery and sufficient raw materials to produce
the battery. One of the presented studies showed that driving range was one of the
largest barriers to electric vehicle adoption. The lithiumion battery and driving
range are not directly correlated since the interviewee focused on production
capacity and the study focused on driving range. The literature study did not
indicate that production capacity of batteries was a barrier for electrification of
cars. A possible explanation for the lack of support to this barrier is the rapid pace
of the technological development, compared to other areas linked to the electric
car. For example, charging infrastructure was previously shown as slower paced
than the sales of the electric vehicle.
5.4 High purchase price
The high purchase price showed in the interview data is supported by two previous
research studies presented in section 2.4. The data suggests that consumers
23focus too much on the purchase price of the electric car, instead of the total life
cycle cost of the electric car. The literature study shows that a new ICEV have a
purchase price of SEK 290,800, compared to an electric car’s purchase price of
SEK 434,900. The purchase price gap between these two cars is not very big and
the interview data as well as the literature study suggests that price parity will be
reached by 2025. One of the interviewees referred to his own study when saying
that the total life cycle cost of the electric vehicle is lower than for the ICEV.
5.5 Dissemination of incorrect information
The interview data shows that dissemination of incorrect information affects the
consumers view on the electric car and not necessarily from a positive point of
view. The previous studies shows that one solution to increase adoption of electric
vehicles is dissemination of correct information to avoid negative dissemination
effects.
5.6 Electric car export
Electric car export was suggested in the interview data as a barrier to increase the
share of electric cars in Sweden. Previous studies in section 2.4 and the literature
study have not taken this barrier into consideration and from the discussion
above, the issues with electric car export might be solved with balancing the
political instruments.
5.7 Societal and ethical aspects
The transition from internal combustion engine cars to electric cars requires great
responsibility from the parties involved. Accelerating such a system change and
remedy barriers without considering risks can have major consequences. The
difficulty of balancing political instruments in combination with speeding up the
transition might lead to too high subsidies and can consequently be misused.
Too high subsidies when buying an electric car enables car manufacturers to take
advantage of this by continuing to have high prices to have higher margins, which
can complicate the transition as the high price has proved to be a barrier. Taking
24advantage of a climate crisis and government subsidies to increase business
profitability can in many cases be seen as unethical.
Production capacity of lithium ion batteries and sufficient raw materials is an
important part as no electric car can be produced without it. Streamlining
the lithiumion battery production to meet demand and more quickly convert
to electric cars requires a great deal of ethical responsibility from involved
companies. It is a wellknown problem that the metals constituting the lithium
ion battery often come from developing countries with substandard working
conditions. Accelerated technological development can increase the risk of
shortcuts and consequently cause stakeholders to ignore making ethically correct
decisions. This not only leads to consequences for those involved in the lithium
ion battery’s production chain, but also gives consumers support to criticize and
oppose electrification of the vehicle fleet.
256 Conclusion
Presented in this thesis is a description of barriers to reach one million electric cars
by 2030 and an indication of how the environmental quality goals will be achieved.
Using semistructured expert interviews followed by thematic analysis, several
barriers to a national largescale electrification of the passenger car fleet emerged.
The results shows that the biggest barriers are lack of charging infrastructure,
unbalanced political instruments, uncertain technological development, high
purchase price, dissemination of incorrect information and electric car export.
Through discussion and analysis, these six obstacles can be divided into three
main obstacles: lack of charging infrastructure, unbalanced political instruments
and dissemination of incorrect information.
267 Further investigations
In order to further develop the work presented in this thesis indepth analysis
of crucial areas as well as solutions to those, could lead to more efficient
decision making. One crucial area is the lack of clear rules and incentive
for deployment of charging infrastructure for multidwelling buildings as well
as charging infrastructure at parking lots. An investigation and clarification
of this area might increase the interest among the larger mass of consumers.
Furthermore, research for optimizing the balance for political instruments could
clarify how and why certain subsidies should be implemented when aiming for a
certain outcome, instead of the trial and error method.
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