AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE ENERGY MASTERPLANNING REPORT - TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - CONFIDENTIAL

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AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE ENERGY MASTERPLANNING REPORT - TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - CONFIDENTIAL
3514120A-BEE

AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE
ENERGY MASTERPLANNING
REPORT
TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

CONFIDENTIAL               MAY 2016
AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE ENERGY MASTERPLANNING REPORT - TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - CONFIDENTIAL
AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE
ENERGY MASTERPLANNING
REPORT
FINAL ISSUE
South Gloucestershire Council

Revision 2
Confidential

Project no: 3514120A-BEE
Date: May 2016

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          PRODUCTION TEAM
          WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF

          Project Engineer                          Laurie Eldridge

          Senior Project Engineer                   Andrew Goodman

          Technical Director                        Bruce Geldard

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           TABLE OF CONTENTS
            1            INTRODUCTION...........................................................................1

            2            HEAT DEMAND SUMMARY ........................................................2
                             2.1                    Cribbs Patchway............................................................................ 2
                             2.2                    New Earth to Accolade Wines........................................................ 3
                             2.3                    Southmead .................................................................................... 3
                             2.4                    UWE.............................................................................................. 4

            3            HEAT DEMAND PROFILING .......................................................5

            4            PIPELINE MODELLING ...............................................................8
                             4.1                    Estimation of peaks ....................................................................... 8
                             4.2                    Pipeline modelling ........................................................................11
                             4.3                    Outputs ........................................................................................12

            5            CHP SIZING................................................................................17
                             5.1                    New Earth Solutions .....................................................................18

            6            THERMAL STORE SELECTION ................................................20

            7            OTHER TECHNICAL INPUT TO THE MODELLING..................23
                             7.1                    Carbon Factors.............................................................................23
                             7.2                    Restrictions on number of starts....................................................23
                             7.3                    Boiler Efficiencies .........................................................................23
                             7.4                    Energy Centre Parasitic Loads......................................................23

            8            FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ..............................................................24
                             8.1                    Rationale ......................................................................................24
                             8.2                    Capex ...........................................................................................24
                             8.3                    CHP CAPEX and maintenance .....................................................24
                             8.4                    Energy centre size ........................................................................25
                             8.5                    Consumer side costs ....................................................................25
                             8.6                    New development heat networks ..................................................26
                             8.7                    Other capex ..................................................................................26
                             8.8                    Summary of CAPEX .....................................................................26
                             8.9                    Maintenance .................................................................................27
                             8.10                   Replacement costs (Repex) ..........................................................27

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                        8.11                Operating income .........................................................................28
                        8.12                Consumer unit maintenance, metering and billing costs ................29
                        8.13                Heat Sales Prices .........................................................................29
                        8.14                Electricity sales.............................................................................30
                        8.15                Electrical import and gas...............................................................30
                        8.16                Purchase of heat from New earth Solutions ..................................31
                        8.17                Variation through time...................................................................31
                        8.18                CRC and other carbon taxation schemes ......................................31
                        8.19                RHI ...............................................................................................31

       9            FINANCIAL RESULTS ...............................................................32
                        9.1                 Cribbs...........................................................................................32
                        9.2                 New Earth Solutions .....................................................................32
                        9.3                 Southmead ...................................................................................33
                        9.4                 UWE.............................................................................................34

       10           SENSITIVITY TO KEY LOADS – UWE NETWORK...................35
                        10.1                Introduction – linear heat density modelling...................................35
                        10.2                Linear heat density results ............................................................35
                        10.3                Load Profiling ...............................................................................37
                        10.4                Pipeline Modelling ........................................................................37
                        10.5                CHP modelling .............................................................................38
                        10.6                Financial inputs.............................................................................39
                        10.7                Energy centre size ........................................................................39
                        10.8                Consumer side costs ....................................................................39
                        10.9                Summary of CAPEX .....................................................................39
                        10.10               Financial results............................................................................40

       11           SOUTHMEAD NETWORK – FURTHER ANALYSIS .................41

       12           FINANCIAL SENSITIVITY ..........................................................43
                        12.1                Energy costs / Prices ....................................................................43
                        12.2                Effect of RHI .................................................................................43

       13           CARBON SAVINGS ...................................................................44

       14           CONCLUSIONS..........................................................................45

       15           STRATEGIC NETWORK ASSESSMENT ..................................46
                        15.1                Introduction ..................................................................................46

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                        15.2                  Methodology .................................................................................46
                        15.3                  Heat Supply – Capacity and Costs ................................................46
                        15.4                  Heat Loads and Network Route ....................................................48
                        15.5                  Capital Cost Estimates..................................................................52
                        15.6                  Potential Volume Of Heat Supply ..................................................59
                        15.7                  Value Of Heat Supply ...................................................................60
                        15.8                  Potential Return On Investment And Carbon Savings ...................60

       16           APPENDIX A: HEAT DEMAND PROFILES ...............................65

       17           APPENDIX B: CONSUMER SIDE COST SUMMARY ...............78

       18           APPENDIX C: PHASED AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE
                    NETWORK DEVELOPMENT .....................................................80

       19           APPENDIX D: PROCESS STEAM USE IN THE VICINITY OF
                    SERC ..........................................................................................87

       20           APPENDIX E: NEW EARTH SOLUTIONS .................................89
                        20.1                  Business Changes ........................................................................89

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      TABLES
      TABLE 2-1: HEAT DEMANDS CRIBBS PATCHWAY ......................................................... 2
      TABLE 2-2: BENCHMARKED HEAT DEMANDS – CRIBBS PATCHWAY .......................... 3
      TABLE 2-3: HEAT DEMANDS – NEW EARTH TO ACCOLADE WINES ............................. 3
      TABLE 2-4: HEAT DEMANDS - SOUTHMEAD .................................................................. 3
      TABLE 2-5: BENCHMARKED HEAT DEMANDS -SOUTHMEAD ....................................... 4
      TABLE 2-6: HEAT DEMANDS - UWE ................................................................................4
      TABLE 2-7: BENCHMARKED HEAT DEMANDS - UWE .................................................... 4
      TABLE 4-1: SUMMARY OF LOAD FACTORS.................................................................... 8
      TABLE 4-2: CRIBBS PATCHWAY PEAK HEAT DEMANDS .............................................. 8
      TABLE 4-3: ACCOLADE WINES HEAT PEAK DEMANDS ................................................. 9
      TABLE 4-4: SOUTHMEAD NETWORK PEAK HEAT DEMANDS........................................ 9
      TABLE 4-5: UWE NETWORK PEAK HEAT DEMANDS...................................................... 9
      TABLE 4-6: HIU RATINGS ............................................................................................... 10
      TABLE 4-7: FLOW AND RETURN TEMPERATURES ...................................................... 12
      TABLE 4-8: SUMMARY OF PIPELINE MODELLING OUTPUTS ...................................... 12
      TABLE 5-1: SUMMARY OF CHP SIZES .......................................................................... 17
      TABLE 5-2: SUMMARY OF CHP PERFORMANCE ......................................................... 17
      TABLE 8-1: CHP CAPEX ................................................................................................. 24
      TABLE 8-2: ENERGY CENTRE ESTIMATED FLOOR AREA ........................................... 25
      TABLE 8-3: SUMMARY OF CONSUMER SIDE COSTS .................................................. 25
      TABLE 8-4: OTHER CAPEX ............................................................................................ 26
      TABLE 8-5: SUMMARY OF CAPEX ................................................................................. 26
      TABLE 8-6: MAINTENANCE COSTS ............................................................................... 27
      TABLE 8-7: REPEX COSTS............................................................................................. 28
      TABLE 8-8: HEAT SALES PRICES .................................................................................. 29
      TABLE 10-1 LINEAR HEAT DENSITY TESTING (LIST) ................................................... 36
      TABLE 10-2: CORE UWE CHP CAPEX ........................................................................... 39
      TABLE 10-3: ENERGY CENTRE ESTIMATED FLOOR AREA ......................................... 39
      TABLE 10-4: SUMMARY OF CAPEX ............................................................................... 39
      TABLE 13-1: ANTICIPATED CARBON SAVINGS ............................................................ 44
      TABLE 15-1: CAPITAL COSTS SCENARIO 1 ALL CLUSTERS - SERC AND NES .......... 55
      TABLE 15-2: CAPITAL COSTS - SCENARIO 2 ALL CLUSTERS - SERC ONLY ............ 56
      TABLE 15-3: SCENARIO 3 – CAPITAL COSTS CPNN AND SOUTHMEAD ONLY -
                        SERC ONLY ................................................................................... 57
      TABLE 15-4: CAPITAL COSTS - SCENARIO 4 - CPNN ONLY - SERC ONLY ................. 58
      TABLE 15-5: CAPITAL COSTS - SCENARIO 5 – UWE TO CITY CENTRE LINK -
                        SERC ONLY ................................................................................... 59
      TABLE 15-6: DHW AND SPACE HEATING PROFILES ................................................... 65
      TABLE 15-7: CRIBBS PATCHWAY ESTIMATED CIU COSTS ......................................... 78
      TABLE 15-8: ACCOLADE WINES ESTIMATED CIU COSTS ........................................... 78
      TABLE 15-9: SOUTHMEAD NETWORK ESTIMATED CIU COSTS.................................. 78
      TABLE 15-10: UWE NETWORK ESTIMATED CIU COSTS .............................................. 79

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      FIGURES
      FIGURE 3-1: CRIBBS PATCHWAY NETWORK ................................................................. 6
      FIGURE 3-2: ACCOLADE WINES HEAT DEMAND PROFILE............................................ 6
      FIGURE 3-3: SOUTHMEAD NETWORK HEAT DEMAND PROFILE .................................. 7
      FIGURE 3-4: UWE NETWORK HEAT DEMAND PROFILE ................................................ 7
      FIGURE 4-1: DOMESTIC HOT WATER DIVERSITY FACTORS ...................................... 11
      FIGURE 4-2: CRIBBS PATCHWAY SCHEME.................................................................. 13
      FIGURE 4-3: NEW EARTH SOLUTIONS ......................................................................... 14
      FIGURE 4-4: SOUTHMEAD ............................................................................................. 15
      FIGURE 4-5: UWE 16
      FIGURE 6-1: CRIBBS PATCHWAY THERMAL STORE SELECTION .............................. 20
      FIGURE 6-2: SOUTHMEAD THERMAL STORE SELECTION .......................................... 21
      FIGURE 6-3: UWE THERMAL STORE SELECTION ........................................................ 21
      FIGURE 9-1: 25-YEAR CUMULATIVE DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW, CRIBBS
                        PATCHWAY.................................................................................... 32
      FIGURE 9-2: 25-YEAR CUMULATIVE DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW, NEW EARTH
                        SOLUTIONS ................................................................................... 33
      FIGURE 9-3: 25-YEAR CUMULATIVE DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW, SOUTHMEAD......... 33
      FIGURE 9-4: 25-YEAR CUMULATIVE DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW, UWE....................... 34
      FIGURE 10-1 LINEAR HEAT DENSITY RESULTS .......................................................... 36
      FIGURE 10-2: CORE UWE NETWORK PROFILE THROUGH THE YEAR....................... 37
      FIGURE 10-3: CORE UWE NETWORK ........................................................................... 38
      FIGURE 10-4: DISCOUNTED CUMULATIVE CASHFLOW – CORE UWE SCHEME ....... 40
      11-1: SOUTHMEAD NETWORK LINEAR HEAT DENSITY............................................... 41
      FIGURE 15-1: SERC TO ALL CLUSTERS ....................................................................... 51
      FIGURE 15-2: ROUTE FROM UWE CLUSTER TO THE CITY CENTRE (TEMPLE &
                        REDCLIFFE EC IN ST PHILIPS) ..................................................... 52
      FIGURE 18-1: 2019 NETWORK....................................................................................... 81
      FIGURE 18-2: 2021 NETWORK....................................................................................... 82
      FIGURE 18-3: 2023 NETWORK....................................................................................... 83
      FIGURE 18-4: 2025 NETWORK....................................................................................... 84
      FIGURE 18-5: 2027 NETWORK....................................................................................... 85
      FIGURE 18-6: 2029 NETWORK....................................................................................... 86

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1             INTRODUCTION
              This report builds on the Avonmouth & Severnside Heat Network Study – Heat Mapping Report
              completed by WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff (WSP | PB). Within this previous report, which formed
              the first phase of a study examining the potential for decentralised energy networks within the
              Avonmouth-Severnside area of South Gloucestershire, a number of heat clusters with the
              potential for decentralised energy networks were identified. Following a workshop to discuss
              these, four potential heat clusters were identified for further analysis:

              à Cribbs Patchway
              à New Earth Solutions to Accolade Wines
              à Southmead
              à UWE

              This report focuses on more detailed modelling of each of these clusters. This is set out in the
              following sections:

              à Heat Demand Summary: Summarises heat demands as set out in the heat mapping report.
                Also includes benchmarks for those loads for which no demands had been available.
              à Load profiling: Heat demands were collected in the form of kilowatt-hours per annum. In
                order to model the operation of a CHP engine against these demands, it is necessary to have
                the variation throughout the year. This section sets out the process by which annual demands
                were converted into hourly profiles.
              à CHP sizing: This section focuses on the selection of an appropriately sized CHP engine to
                meet the heat demands.
              à Pipeline modelling: WSP | PB’s bespoke model was used to size and cost the pipe network
                required to supply the heat loads. This includes estimation of peak heat demands for each of
                the loads on the network.
              à Financial modelling: A full financial model was undertaken for each of the networks, in order
                to establish economic viability.
              à Sensitivity analysis: Financial sensitivity to key criteria.
              à Update of strategic network assessment: Following on from the initial heat networks
                proposition in the previous heat mapping report.
              à Conclusions and recommendations

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2             HEAT DEMAND SUMMARY
              This section sets out the loads which comprise each of the four clusters, as identified within the
              Heat Mapping Report:

              à Cribbs Patchway
              à New Earth to Accolade Wines
              à Southmead
              à UWE

2.1           CRIBBS PATCHWAY

              The following heat demands were collected for the Cribbs Patchway cluster:

              Table 2-1: Heat demands Cribbs Patchway

              Site Name                                                              Heat demand (kWh/yr)
              Aztec Hotel & Spa                                                      Unavailable
              CPNN - residential                                                     14,166,000
              CPNN - non-residential                                                 21,305,000
              Callicroft Primary School                                              185,000
              Hilton Bristol Hotel                                                   Unavailable
              Holy Family Primary School                                             140,000
              Patchway Community School                                              1000,000
              Patchway Locality Hub                                                  200,000
              Rolls Royce                                                            7,000,000
              St Chad's Primary School                                               120,000
              Stoke Lodge Primary School                                             200,000

              For those loads where no heat demand was available, the following process was used to derive
              an estimate:

              à Area of building and number of storeys established using Google Maps to give overall
                external floor area
              à Heat benchmark applied based on CIBSE Guide TM46 fossil fuel benchmarks and an
                assumed boiler efficiency of 80%
              à Total building heat demand calculated.

              It should be noted that this is a fairly crude approach and more refined data would need to be
              gathered at the next stage of design. However, these heat demands are sufficient at this high-
              level feasibility stage.

              The calculations undertaken are set out below:

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              Table 2-2: Benchmarked heat demands – Cribbs Patchway

                                 Area from                                    Benchmark         Benchmarked
                                 Google Maps        Number                    (2006)            heat demand
              Site Name          (m2)               of floors   Use type      (kWh/m2/yr)       (kWh/annum)
              Aztec Hotel &
              Spa                5500               2.5         Hotel                       264 3,630,000
              Hilton Bristol
              Hotel              6200               2           Hotel                       264 3,274,000

2.2           NEW EARTH TO ACCOLADE WINES

              This is a very small network which provides a link between the New Earth Solutions renewable
              energy plant and Accolade Wines. As the New Earth Solutions plant is solely providing (i.e. not
              using) heat, there is no associated demand listed.

              It is noted that there are other potential heat demands in this area but these are, in the main,
              small privately owned businesses. Typically it could be expected that such loads might join a
              network that is already in operation but would not be relied on as part of a base case business
              plan. We have therefore not included these in the demands identified at this stage.

              Table 2-3: Heat demands – New Earth to Accolade Wines

              Site Name                                                 Heat demand (kWh/annum)
              Accolade Wines                                            4,165,000
              New Earth                                                 N/A

2.3           SOUTHMEAD

              Heat demands collated for the Southmead network are summarised in the table below:

              Table 2-4: Heat demands - Southmead

                                                                                             Heat demand
              Site Name                                                                      (kwh/annum)
              Badocks Wood Primary - Southmead Childrens’ Centre                             120,000
              BAE systems                                                                     1,094,000
              Charborough Road Primary School                                                170,000
              Filton Sports & Leisure Centre                                                 Unavailable
              Horfield Leisure Centre                                                        1,518,000
              South Gloucestershire & Stroud College                                         Unavailable
              Southmead Hospital                                                             28,508,000

              One of the potential additional loads on this network is Airbus. This has a significant heat demand
              of 22.8GWh – and so could nearly double the heat demands. It has been excluded as it is now
              understood that the campus has a fully decentralised heating system with around 500 different
              combustion appliances mainly in the 10-500kW range. Many are warm air or other types not
              readily converted to L/MPHW without significant expenditure.

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              A benchmarking process was followed to establish heat demands for the remaining loads, as set
              out in Section 2.1. The outcomes of the benchmarking are set out in the table below:

              Table 2-5: Benchmarked heat demands -Southmead

                                                                                                      Benchmark
                                             Area from                              Benchmark         ed heat
                                             Google       Number of                 (2006)            demand
              Site Name                      Maps         floors         Use type   (kWh/m2/yr)       (kWh/yr)
                                                                         Sports
              Filton Sports & Leisure                                    centre
              Centre                         2400         1              (dry)      264               633,600
              South Gloucestershire
              & Stroud College               8750         3              School     120               3,150,000

2.4           UWE

              Heat demands of the network in and around UWE are summarised in the table below:

              Table 2-6: Heat demands - UWE

              GIS ID                                                                Heat demand (kWh/annum)
              Bristol Rovers/ UWE stadium                                           4,980,000
              Frenchay Hospital                                                     2,936,000
              Harry Stoke                                                           7,245,000
              Hewlett Packard                                                       1,523,000
              Higher Education Funding Council                                       None
              Holiday Inn Bristol-Filton                                             None
              Land East of Coldharbour Lane                                         2,818,000
              Land East of Harry Stoke                                              11,986,000
              MoD Filton Abbey Wood                                                 8,994,000
              Romney House                                                          289,000
              UWE                                                                   6,768,000
              The outputs from benchmarking are summarised in the table below:
              Table 2-7: Benchmarked heat demands - UWE
                                                     Area
                                                     from       Number              Benchmark       Benchmarked
                                                     Google     of        Use       (2006)          heat demand
              GIS ID                                 Maps       floors    type      (kWh/m2/yr)     (kWh/annum)
              Higher Education Funding Council           1500   3         Office             96             432,000
              Holiday Inn Bristol-Filton                 6250   2         Hotel             264           3,300,000

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3             HEAT DEMAND PROFILING
              It is proposed that the clusters are initially supplied with heat from gas-fired CHP engines, with
              back up and peaking heat supplied by gas boilers. Gas-fired CHP is proposed as the base case
              for feasibility: it is a well-proven, reliable technology, with engines available from a wide range of
              manufacturers. Compared to biomass solutions, it is low risk from a planning / fuel supply and
              storage perspective.

              The hourly variation in heat demand throughout the year is used to assess the operation of the
              CHP engines, and select appropriately sized models. Annual heat demands were therefore
              converted into hourly heat profiles using WSP | PB’s in-house load profiling tool.

              This tool uses assumed daily heat demand profiles for space heating and domestic hot water
              (DHW), with separate profiles for weekday and weekend demands and an assumed percentage
              split between the two. Hot water demands are assumed to remain constant throughout the year,
              whilst space heating demands vary inversely with external temperature (it is assumed that heating
              is required once the external temperature drops below 15.5°C)

              The following main use types were used for profiling purposes:

              à Hospital
              à Hotel
              à Leisure centre (with pool)
              à Leisure centre (dry)
              à Residential
              à Office
              à Stadium
              à School
              à University uses1

              In addition, particular profiles were developed for Accolade Wines and the BAE Filton Cribbs
              Patchway New Neighbourhood development.

              These profiles are illustrated in appendix A.

              1
                  Comprising offices, refectory, student union and student accommodation.

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              The resultant annual profiles for the four networks set out above are illustrated in the subsequent
              diagrams:

              Figure 3-1: Cribbs Patchway Network

                                                    Cribbs Patchway network
                                    70,000

                                    60,000

                                    50,000
                 Heat demand (kW)

                                    40,000

                                    30,000

                                    20,000

                                    10,000

                                          -
                                                 1
                                               267
                                               533
                                               799
                                              1065
                                              1331
                                              1597
                                              1863
                                              2129
                                              2395
                                              2661
                                              2927
                                              3193
                                              3459
                                              3725
                                              3991
                                              4257
                                              4523
                                              4789
                                              5055
                                              5321
                                              5587
                                              5853
                                              6119
                                              6385
                                              6651
                                              6917
                                              7183
                                              7449
                                              7715
                                              7981
                                              8247
                                              8513
                                                               Hour through year

              Figure 3-2: Accolade Wines heat demand profile

                                                      Accolade Wines
                                    600

                                    500

                                    400
                 Heat demand (kW)

                                    300

                                    200

                                    100

                                     -
                                          1033
                                          1291
                                          1549
                                          1807
                                          2065
                                          2323
                                          2581
                                          2839
                                          3097
                                          3355
                                          3613
                                          3871
                                          4129
                                          4387
                                          4645
                                          4903
                                          5161
                                          5419
                                          5677
                                          5935
                                          6193
                                          6451
                                          6709
                                          6967
                                          7225
                                          7483
                                          7741
                                          7999
                                          8257
                                          8515
                                             1
                                           259
                                           517
                                           775

                                                             Hour through year

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              Figure 3-3: Southmead Network heat demand profile

                                                    Southmead network
                                    20,000

                                    18,000

                                    16,000

                                    14,000
                 Heat demand (kW)

                                    12,000

                                    10,000

                                     8,000

                                     6,000

                                     4,000

                                     2,000

                                        -
                                                1
                                              232
                                              463
                                              694
                                              925
                                             1156
                                             1387
                                             1618
                                             1849
                                             2080
                                             2311
                                             2542
                                             2773
                                             3004
                                             3235
                                             3466
                                             3697
                                             3928
                                             4159
                                             4390
                                             4621
                                             4852
                                             5083
                                             5314
                                             5545
                                             5776
                                             6007
                                             6238
                                             6469
                                             6700
                                             6931
                                             7162
                                             7393
                                             7624
                                             7855
                                             8086
                                             8317
                                             8548
                                                            Hour through year

              Figure 3-4: UWE network heat demand profile

                                                     UWE Network
                                    50,000

                                    45,000

                                    40,000

                                    35,000
                 Heat demand (kW)

                                    30,000

                                    25,000

                                    20,000

                                    15,000

                                    10,000

                                     5,000

                                        -
                                                1
                                              232
                                              463
                                              694
                                              925
                                             1156
                                             1387
                                             1618
                                             1849
                                             2080
                                             2311
                                             2542
                                             2773
                                             3004
                                             3235
                                             3466
                                             3697
                                             3928
                                             4159
                                             4390
                                             4621
                                             4852
                                             5083
                                             5314
                                             5545
                                             5776
                                             6007
                                             6238
                                             6469
                                             6700
                                             6931
                                             7162
                                             7393
                                             7624
                                             7855
                                             8086
                                             8317
                                             8548

                                                            Hour through year

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4             PIPELINE MODELLING
4.1           ESTIMATION OF PEAKS

              Decentralised energy pipe networks need to be sized in order to serve the peak loads which will
              be encountered. The higher the peak demand, the larger the pipe diameter required. Peak loads
              were derived from the annual loads presented in Section 2; the methodology is set out in the
              following two sections.

              NON-DOMESTIC LOADS

              To convert from annual heat demands (in kWh) to peak heat demands (kW), load factors were
              applied. Load factors are given by the following equation:

                                                                      ℎ          ( ℎ)
                                                       =
                                                                  ℎ             × 8760

              i.e it is a representation of the “peakiness” of the heat demand throughout the course of a year.

              Load factors were derived from the daily space heating and DHW profiles set out in the previous
              section and are summarised in the table below:

              Table 4-1: Summary of Load Factors

              Use type                                                     Overall load factor
              Accolade Wines                                               90%
              Hospital                                                     28%
              Hotel                                                        15%
              Leisure Centre (With Pool)                                   33%
              Office                                                       7%
              Stadium                                                      15%
              School                                                       8%
              Sports centre (dry)                                          13%
              UWE - office use                                             10%
              UWE - refectory                                              16%
              UWE – Student halls of residence                             20%
              UWE – Student Union                                          15%
              BAE Filton - CPNN - non-residential                          11%

              Applying these load factors to the annual figures for each load leads to the following totals for
              each network:

              Table 4-2: Cribbs Patchway Peak Heat Demands

                                                         Annual heat                              Peak heat
              Site Name                                  demand (MWh)        Load factor          demand (MW)
              Aztec Hotel & Spa                          3,630               15%                  2.76
              BAE Filton - CPNN - residential            14,166              N/A                  Residential

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              BAE Filton - CPNN - non-residential   21,305           11%            22.11
              Callicroft Primary School             185              8%             0.26
              Hilton Bristol Hotel                  3,274            15%            2.49
              Holy Family Primary School            140              8%             0.20
              Patchway Community School             1,000            8%             1.43
              Patchway Locality Hub                 200              7%             0.33
              Rolls Royce                           7,000            7%             11.42
              St Chad's Primary School              120              8%             0.17
              Stoke Lodge Primary School            200              8%             0.29

              Table 4-3: Accolade Wines Peak Heat Demands

                                                    Annual heat                     Peak heat
              Site Name                             demand (MWh)     Load factor    demand (MW)
              Accolade Wines                                4165           90%      0.53

              Table 4-4: Southmead Network Peak Heat Demands

                                                    Annual heat                     Peak heat
              Site Name                             demand (MWh)     Load factor    demand (MW)
              Badocks Wood Primary - Southmead
                                                             120           8%               0.17
              Childrens Centre
              BAE systems                                   1,094           7%              1.79
              Charborough Road Primary School                170            8%              0.24
              Filton Sports & Leisure Centre                 634           13%              0.56
              Horfield Leisure Centre                       1,518          33%              0.53
              South Gloucestershire & Stroud
                                                            3,150          8%               4.50
              College
              Southmead Hospital                            28,508         28%              11.62

              Table 4-5: UWE Network Peak Heat Demands

                                                    Annual heat                     Peak heat
              GIS ID                                demand (MWh)     Load factor    demand (MW)
              Bristol Rovers/ UWE stadium                    4,980         15%             3.82
              Frenchay Hospital                              2,936         N/A          Residential
              Harry Stoke                                    7,245         N/A          Residential
              Hewlett Packard                                1,523          7%             2.48
              Higher Education Funding Council                432           7%             0.71
              Holiday Inn Bristol-Filton                     3,300         15%             2.51
              Land East of Coldharbour Lane                  2,818         N/A          Residential
              Land East of Harry Stoke                      11,986         N/A          Residential

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              MoD Filton Abbey Wood                             8,993                 7%                 15.67
              Romney House                                       289                  7%                  0.47
                                      Office use                2,835                10%                  3.24
                                      Refectory Use               193                16%                  0.14
              UWE2
                                      Student halls             3,561                20%                  2.03
                                      Student union               179                15%                  0.14

              DOMESTIC LOADS

              Domestic peak loads are calculated in a different manner to non-residential loads. This is
              because significant diversity in demands for hot water needs to be taken into account. For
              example, while the units in a block of flats will have similar heat demand profiles, each dwelling
              will experience its peak demand at a slightly different time. As such, the peak domestic demand
              on the network will be lower than that calculated by multiplying the number of dwellings by the
              per-dwelling peak heat demand.

              The following peak demands are assumed per dwelling, based on typical heat interface unit
              ratings:

              Table 4-6: HIU ratings
              Peak space heating demand             3.5      kW
              Peak DHW demand                       30       kW

              The diversity curve of hot water consumption is developed from data provided in technical DH
              guidance for designers (Standard DS 439:2009), and is illustrated below:

              2
                  Note: Demands for UWE shown here are taken from work carried out by WSP | PB for UWE, August 2015

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              Figure 4-1: Domestic hot water diversity factors

                                                         Domestic hot water diversity
                                        1.00

                                        0.90

                                        0.80

                                        0.70
                 DHW diversity factor

                                        0.60

                                        0.50

                                        0.40

                                        0.30

                                        0.20

                                        0.10

                                          -
                                               0   100      200     300           400       500      600   700
                                                                    Number of dwellings

              The resultant diversified peak heat demands are summarised in the table below:

              Table 4-7: Diversified peak residential demands, Cribbs Patchway

                                                                                          Annual heat            Peak heat demand
              Site Name                                                                   demand (MWh)           (MW)
              BAE Filton - CPNN - residential                                                     14,166                36.10

              Table 4-8: Diversified peak residential demands, UWE

                                                                                          Annual heat            Peak heat demand
              GIS ID                                                                      demand (MWh)           (MW)
              Frenchay Hospital                                                                    2,936                 2.57
              Harry Stoke                                                                          7,245                 6.10
              Land East of Coldharbour Lane                                                        2,818                 2.83
              Land East of Harry Stoke                                                            11,986                10.17

4.2           PIPELINE MODELLING

              WSP | PB’s proprietary pipeline model was used to model the pipe networks. This allows the
              diameter of pipe lengths to be calculated, DH network pumps to be sized, and indicative heat loss
              and network cost to be calculated.

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              The inputs to the model are peak heat demand for each load connected to the network, flow and
              return temperatures, and network geometry.

              Flow and return temperatures are here reproduced from the London Heat Network Manual3,
              which sets out best practice in this area.

              The following flow and return temperatures are used, these are based on a combination of the
              London Heat Network Manual and WSP | PB’s experience of best practice in the construction of
              decentralised energy networks:

              Table 4-9: Flow and return temperatures
                                                           Temperature          Source
                                                                                                                    4
              Primary flow                                        90°C          District heating manual for London
              Primary return (Domestic space heating)             55°C          District heating manual for London
              Primary return (DHW)                                25°C          District heating manual for London
              Primary return (non-domestic hot water)             55°C          District heating manual for London

              Non-domestic buildings can accept higher primary side temperatures, with temperatures of up to
              110°C standard. If residential developments are served by hydraulically separated networks
              which in turn serve each property, then higher temperature flow in primary mains is possible,
              which will increase temperature differentials and minimise pipe diameters. On the other hand,
              heat losses will be higher, therefore higher temperatures would only be used when demands are
              high - for example when outside temperatures are below 5°C – so as to minimise heat losses
              through the year. The potential for such improvements would be considered in future, more
              detailed, feasibility studies.

4.3           OUTPUTS

              The table below summarises the outputs from pipeline modelling. Series 2 insulation5 has been
              assumed throughout.

              Table 4-10: Summary of pipeline modelling outputs
              Network option           Network cost        Total trench       Total load at      Pump         Annual heat
                                                           length (m)         energy centre      power        losses
                                                                              (MWth)             (kWe)        (MWh/annum)
              Cribbs Patchway             £8,450,000             7498               20.8           252             2194
              New Earth Solutions         £1,316,000             1507                1.3             6              355
              Southmead                   £5,117,000             5543                6.1            41             1464
              UWE                         £7,647,000             8265               47.3           396             2386

              Indicative pipe diameters for the networks are shown in the following diagrams and tables. These
              show the pipe to the boundary of each stakeholder, and are schematics only.

              3
                http://www.londonheatmap.org.uk/Content/uploaded/documents/LHNM_Manual2014Low.pdf
              4
                The DH manual for London recommends a temperature of 110-80°C. 90°C has been selected here as the
                  maximum safe temperature for hot water to enter dwellings.
              5
                Three insulation levels are available – 1, 2 and 3, of which 3 is the highest and 1 the lowest. Series 2 is
                  generaly recommended for projects in the UK.

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              Figure 4-2: Cribbs Patchway Scheme

                                           Cost per m
                  Diameters                               Length of this diameter in this   Total cost for pipe
                                           (trench) (£
               (nominal) (mm ID)                                   option (m)                 diameter (£)
                                             capex)
                         50                   £638       760                                £484,615
                         65                   £690       1,039                              £716,809
                         80                   £753       -                                  £0
                        100                   £873       24                                 £21,084
                        125                   £979       1,284                              £1,257,514
                        150                  £1,099      126                                £138,683
                        200                  £1,232      788                                £970,435
                        250                  £1,380      2,204                              £3,040,991
                        300                  £1,430      1,273                              £1,819,767

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              Figure 4-3: New Earth Solutions6

                                            Cost per m
                  Diameters                                   Length of this diameter in this          Total cost for pipe
                                            (trench) (£
               (nominal) (mm ID)                                       option (m)                        diameter (£)
                                              capex)
              65                         £690                 1,507                                  £1,039,830

              6
                  Please note that while shorter routes may be feasible to connect these loads we are not currently able to
                    guarantee this and so have taken a conservative position for this high level study. We also note that this
                    longer route may provide additional opportunities for other loads to connect particularly on the business
                    parks at the junction of St Andrews Rd and Kings Weston Lane

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              Figure 4-4: Southmead

                                            Cost per m
                   Diameters                                  Length of this diameter in this   Total cost for pipe
                                            (trench) (£
                (nominal) (mm ID)                                      option (m)                 diameter (£)
                                              capex)
              50                         £638             995                                   21,502
              65                         £690             1,579                                 38,664
              80                         £753             214                                   5,512
              100                        £873             -                                     -
              125                        £979             -                                     -
              150                        £1,099           1,219                                 43,581
              200                        £1,232           1,536                                 57,908

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              Figure 4-5: UWE

                                          Cost per m
                  Diameters                             Length of this diameter in this    Total cost for pipe
                                          (trench) (£
               (nominal) (mm ID)                                 option (m)                  diameter (£)
                                            capex)
              65                       £690             1,079                             £744,518
              80                       £753             30                                £22,230
              100                      £873             -                                 £0
              125                      £979             2,018                             £1,976,475
              150                      £1,099           1,039                             £1,141,800
              200                      £1,232           1,818                             £2,239,428
              250                      £1,380           1,814                             £2,502,772
              300                      £1,430           25                                £36,050
              350                      £1,584           442                               £699,501

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5             CHP SIZING
              The Cribbs Patchway, Southmead and UWE networks are to be provided with heat from a
              Combined Heat and Power (CHP) engine during the initial stages of the project (i.e. before a link
              to a waste heat supply is implemented). The one exception is the network which links New Earth
              Solutions and Accolade Wines – here heat is provided from the Energy from Waste plant at the
              former.

              Initial CHP size was calculated assuming that the CHP meets 70% of annual heat demand over
              6,000 hours. This is a rough, first-pass indicator which has been found by WSP | PB to indicate a
              suitable starting point for CHP selection, and provides a good base figure for testing different
              sizes. This formula is set out below:

                                                                     ℎ            × 70%
                                                         =
                                                                         6000

              The resultant sizes are set out in the table below, alongside the engines modelled.

              Table 5-1: Summary of CHP sizes
              Network                Annual heat             Estimated CHP      CHP(s)           Option heat
                                     demand (GWh)            size (kW)          modelled         output (kW)
              Cribbs Patchway        51.2                    5,980              2 x J616         5292
                                                                                2 x J620         6600
                                                                                J620 & J616      5946
              New Earth              4.2                     N/A                N/A              N/A

              Southmead              35.2                    4,110              2 x J420         2928
                                                                                2 x J612         3970
                                                                                2 x J616         5292
              UWE                    51.2                    5,980              2 x J612         3970
                                                                                2 x J616         5292
                                                                                J616 & J612      5946

              The performance of the CHPs listed in the table above is set out below:

              Table 5-2: Summary of CHP performance
                                                                     Thermal output
              Engine name                  Electrical output (kW)    (kW)                 Energy input kW(gross)
              J420                         1487                      1464                 3,916
              J612                         2000                      1985                 5,068
              J616                         2679                      2646                 6,756
              J620                         3352                      3300                 8,440
              J624                         4401                      4108                 10,709

              Initial modelling of the different CHP options against the heat loads showed that the following
              CHPs performed best against the loads in terms of heat output and run hours:

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              Table 5-3: Summary of CHPs modelled
              Network                Annual heat     Estimated CHP       CHP(s)              Option heat
                                     demand (GWh)    size (kW)           modelled            output (kW)
              Cribbs Patchway        51.2            5,980               2 x J620            6600
              New Earth              4.2             N/A                 N/A                 N/A
              Southmead              35.2            4,110               2 x J612            3970
              UWE                    51.2            5,980               2 x J616            5292

              These engines were thus taken forwards to the next stage of modelling.

5.1           NEW EARTH SOLUTIONS

              As already discussed, it is proposed that Accolade Wines receives heat from New Earth
              Solutions. The potential heat supply from New Earth Solutions is greater than the peak demand at
              Accolade and so should be able to supply the total heat demand except for during periods of
              maintenance. It is therefore assumed that 90% of Accolade Wines’ heat demand is met in this
              way. The remaining 10% is assumed to be served from existing gas boilers at Accolade Wines

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6             THERMAL STORE SELECTION
              The use of thermal storage can improve CHP operation through decoupling heat demand and
              supply. This means that at times when heat demand is greater than CHP output, heat can be
              drawn down from the thermal store without the need to operate top up boiler plant. When demand
              is less than CHP output, excess heat can be used to charge the store, leading to a smoother CHP
              operating regime (i.e. the engine does not need to switch on and off so frequently).

              In order to select an appropriate store size, for each scheme CHP option, a range of thermal store
                                                         3
              capacities was modelled, from 0 to 500m . Two graphs are displayed below: one showing the
              effect of varying thermal store size on the heat output from the CHPs, and the second showing
              the effect on number of starts (based on a maximum of two starts per day). Engine restarts
              increase the ‘wear and tear’ on an engine, and are hence undesirable in general. Graphs showing
              number of starts and overall heat output against thermal store size are set out below.

              Figure 6-1: Cribbs Patchway Thermal Store Selection

                                                                Cribbs Network - Effect of Changing TS size
                                               34,000,000                                                                              1,200

                                               33,500,000
                                                                                                                                       1,000
                 CHP heat output (kWh/annum)

                                                                                                                                               Combined starts per annum
                                               33,000,000
                                                                                                                                       800
                                               32,500,000

                                               32,000,000                                                                              600

                                               31,500,000
                                                                                                                                       400
                                               31,000,000
                                                                                                                                       200
                                               30,500,000

                                               30,000,000                                                                              -
                                                            -    100       200              300              400   500           600
                                                                                  Thermal store size (m3)

                                                                            Total heat supply       Total starts

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              Figure 6-2: Southmead thermal store selection

                                                                 Southmead Network - Effect of Changing TS Size
                                                22,600,000                                                                                              300.00

                                                22,500,000
                                                                                                                                                        250.00
                 CHP heat output (kWh/annum)

                                                22,400,000

                                                                                                                                                                   Combined starts per annum
                                                                                                                                                        200.00
                                                22,300,000

                                                22,200,000                                                                                              150.00

                                                22,100,000
                                                                                                                                                        100.00
                                                22,000,000
                                                                                                                                                        50.00
                                                21,900,000

                                                21,800,000                                                                                              0.00
                                                             0   100      200            300              400               500     600           700
                                                                                        Thermal store size (m3)

                                                                                  Total heat output        Total starts

              Figure 6-3: UWE thermal store selection

                                                                   UWE Network - Effect of Changing TS Size
                                                29,500,000                                                                                              800.00

                                                29,000,000                                                                                              700.00

                                                28,500,000                                                                                              600.00
                  CHP heat output (kWh/annum)

                                                                                                                                                                 Combined starts per annum
                                                28,000,000                                                                                              500.00

                                                27,500,000                                                                                              400.00

                                                27,000,000                                                                                              300.00

                                                26,500,000                                                                                              200.00

                                                26,000,000                                                                                              100.00

                                                25,500,000                                                                                              0.00
                                                             -     100          200               300                 400         500             600
                                                                                        Thermal store size (m3)

                                                                                  Total heat output        Total starts

              The trend of the curves illustrated above shows that with increasing thermal store size, the
              number of annual restarts decreases, whilst overall annual heat output increases. Engine
              suppliers would typically limit restarts to a maximum of 2 per day in maintenance contracts, and
              the use of thermal storage will help to achieve this whilst maintaining a higher level of heat
              recovery. A greater number of restarts will have an impact on guarantees on availability and
              increase maintenance costs.

              Another key consideration is the financial implications of thermal storage. Although increasing
              thermal store size leads to overall financially beneficial outcomes, these need to be set off against
              the capital cost of the store.

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              Looking at the UWE network, increasing the thermal store size by 20m 3 at an extra CAPEX of
              £20,000 leads to an extra £1200 income per year, so a payback period of around 17 years. It is
              noted that these costs and revenues are quite conservative at this stage and a further more
              detailed assessment of the benefits of large thermal stores should be undertaken in next stage
              studies.
                                                                                3
              In particular it is known that larger stores will have a lower per m capital cost and that CHP
              maintenance costs are quite sensitive to hours of operation. The potential for load shifting – ie
              generating electricity when market values are high, whilst storing heat for use at night when
              electricity is cheaper, should also be considered. Finally, a future assessment of the benefit of
              larger thermal storage for the strategic network should be considered.

              As such, it is proposed for this study to keep the size of the thermal store at a minimum, with size
              selected primarily to avoid an excessive number of starts. Using this rationale leads to the
              following thermal store selections:

                                                                                                3
              Network                                            Selected thermal store size (m )
              Cribbs                                             150
              Southmead                                          100
              UWE                                                150

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7             OTHER TECHNICAL INPUT TO THE
              MODELLING
              This section summarises all other technical inputs to the modelling.

7.1           CARBON FACTORS

              DEFRA emissions factors for company reporting are used. These are:

              à 0.50029kgCO2/kWh for electricity
              à 0.18639kgCO2/kWh for gas

7.2           RESTRICTIONS ON NUMBER OF STARTS

              All CHPs modelled were restricted to two starts per day. Additional starts create extra wear on the
              engine and increase maintenance costs

7.3           BOILER EFFICIENCIES

              We have assumed that the efficiency of new top-up boilers is 85%.

7.4           ENERGY CENTRE PARASITIC LOADS
              The predominant parasitic load at the energy centre is for pumping demands. These are set out in
              Table 4-10.

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8             FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
8.1           RATIONALE

              As has been mentioned, the heat clusters set out within this report form the constituent parts of a
              wider Avonmouth-Severnside heat network. In order to facilitate these networks to link up at a
              future date, the following approach is taken:

              à Containerised CHP, allowing the engine to be removed when a wider network develops, fed
                from SERC or another lower carbon heat source. However, each cluster still retains a
                purpose-built energy centre, which contains top-up boilers, pumps, etc. and will provide
                peaking supply to the cluster in the wider network case.
              à Boiler plant is assumed to be retained at UWE and the MoD. In the former case, this follows
                the approach taken by UWE in terms of their approach of distributed plant rooms when
                implementing CHP on the campus. In the case of the latter, it is assumed that the MoD would
                require some degree of control to be retained over their heat supply.

8.2           CAPEX

              Indicative energy centre costs are based on the following items:

              Item                                  Cost                                Source

                                                                                        Costs based on supplier
              CHP engine                            See Table 8-1
                                                                                        quotes

              Thermal storage                       £1,000 per cubic metre              Based on quotes from
                                                                                        suppliers
              Utility Connections                   £195,000 per network                Estimate
              Energy centre building                £1650/m2.                           Building costs are based on
                                                                                        the space requirements of the
                                                                                        energy centre plant.
              Mechanical processes and              £90 per kW installed capacity       Spon’s all-in gas fired boiler
              controls                                                                  cost of £91 to £99 per kW.
                                                                                        Includes gas train, controls,
                                                                                        flue, plantroom pipework,
                                                                                        valves and insulation, pumps
                                                                                        and pressurisation unit.
              Distribution pipework                 Costs set out in Table 4-10.

8.3           CHP CAPEX AND MAINTENANCE

              CHP CAPEX is listed in the table below. For the sake of convenience, maintenance costs are
              provided alongside.

              Table 8-1: CHP CAPEX
              Scheme                       CHPs chosen                Capital cost (total)        Maintenance cost
                                                                                                  (£/operating hour per
                                                                                                  CHP) for 15-year
                                                                                                  agreement
              Cribbs                       2 X J620                   2 x £1,325,500=             £25.36
                                                                      £2,651,000

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              New Earth                      N/A                       N/A                         N/A
              Southmead                      2 x J612                  2 x £921,500 =              £17.99
                                                                       £1,843,000
              UWE                            2 X J616                  2 x £1,090,000=             £21.22
                                                                       £2,180,000

8.4           ENERGY CENTRE SIZE

              The area required by the energy centre is based upon previous designs carried out by WSP |
              Parsons Brinckerhoff. The estimated floor area required is set out in the table below:

              Table 8-2: Energy centre estimated floor area
              Network                                                 Estimated energy centre size (m2)
              Cribbs                                                  1120
              New Earth Solutions                                     N/A – it is assumed that any necessary plant (heat
                                                                      exchanger and pumps) will be housed within New
                                                                      Earth Solutions
              Southmead                                               840
              UWE                                                     750

              It should be noted that these sizes are indicative and for costing only.

8.5           CONSUMER SIDE COSTS

              The cost of domestic heat interface units and non-domestic heat substations are included within
              the capital cost of the different scheme options. A domestic HIU cost of £1200 per dwelling has
              been used, based upon an average HIU cost. Commercial heat interface unit cost depends on the
              unit size, and is based upon quotes obtained from suppliers. These are summarised below, with
              full details in an appendix to this document.

              Table 8-3: Summary of consumer side costs
              Network                 Total residential    HIU cost               Number of          Overall CIU cost
                                      properties                                  non-domestic
                                                                                  connections
              Cribbs                  2750                 £3,300,000             12                 £1,225,000
                                                                                   7
              New Earth               0                    N/A                    2                  £54,000
              Southmead               0                    N/A                    8                  £232,000
              UWE                     4240                 £5,088,000             15                 £409,000

              7
                  One CIU for Accolade Wines, and assumed one CIU at the interface between New Earth Solutions and the
                   DH network

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8.6           NEW DEVELOPMENT HEAT NETWORKS

              The cost of the heat network on each new development site also needs to be taken into account.
              It is not within the scope of this work to design each new development plot network, and so the
              following approximation has been used:

              For each dwelling:

              à 5m of DN 80 main spine at £500/m – total of £2500
              à 3m of DN25 connection from main spine to dwelling at £350/m – total of £1050
              à Final connection cost to HIU of £250
              à Thus a total per dwelling cost of £3800. Note all costs are for soft dig.

               It should be noted that this is a very high-level approach and detailed analysis will be required to
              establish more accurate plot level costs. This is outside the scope of this commission, however.

8.7           OTHER CAPEX

              The following additional items of capital expenditure are included:

              Table 8-4: Other capex
                                   Item                                 Cost
                                   Professional fees                    12% of CAPEX (excluding
                                                                        pipework)
                                   Contingency                          20% of CAPEX (excluding
                                                                        pipework)

8.8           SUMMARY OF CAPEX

              Summaries of capital expenditure for the four schemes are set out in the table below:

              Table 8-5: Summary of CAPEX
                                Cribbs        New Earth                  Southmead                  UWE
              CHP               £2,651,000    N/A                        £1,843,000                 £2,180,000
              engines
              Thermal           £150,000      N/A8                       £100,000                   £150,000
              storage
              Utility           £195,000      £195,000                   £195,000                   £195,000
              connections
              Energy            £1,848,000    N/A                        £1,386,000                 £1,238,000
              centre
              building

              8
                  With a total heat output of 8MWth, the heat output from the plant is far greater than the demands of
                   Accolade Wines. As such, thermal storage is not required, as it is assumed that there will always be heat
                   supply when desired.

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                                                       9                                                10
              Mechanical      £1,875,000     £100,000             £550,000                  £2,396,000
              process and
              controls
              Transmissio     £8,450,000     £1,040,000           £5,117,000                £9,363,000
              n pipework

              On site pipe    £10,450,00     N/A                  N/A                       £16,112,000
              network         0
              HIU             £3,300,000     N/A                  N/A                       £5,088,000
              (domestic)
              CIU             £1,225,000     £54,000              £232,000                  £409,000
              (Commercia
              l)
              Professional    £1,349,000     £80,000              £517,000                  £1,399,000
              fees (at
              12%)
              Contingency     £2,249,000     £70,000              £861,000                  £2,331,000
              (20%)
              TOTAL           £33,742,00     £1,539,000           £10,801,000               £40,861,000
                              0

8.9           MAINTENANCE

              The following items of plant and system maintenance are included:

              Table 8-6: Maintenance costs
              Plant item                            Unit                          Notes
              Gas CHP                               p/kWhe                        From supplier quotes for a range
                                                                                  of CHP engine sizes
              M&E                                   £/annum                       1% of back up boiler CAPEX
              DH pipework                           £/annum                       1% of capital outlay following a 2-
                                                                                  year warranty period.

8.10          REPLACEMENT COSTS (REPEX)

              End of service life replacement costs are included within the modelling and are set out in the table
              below. Pipework has a 45 to 50 year life, and so its replacement is not included within the scope
              of this study.

              9
                  To cover pumping and peripheries
              10
                   Based on a peak network demand of 47MW minus the peak demands of UWE at 6MW and MoD at
                    14.7MW

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              Table 8-7: REPEX costs
                                                    Anticipated lifetime (years)       Replacement cost as
                                                                                       percentage of CAPEX
              Gas CHP unit                          15                                 70%
              Energy Centre Building                40                                 40%
              Back up gas boilers                   30                                 50%
              Residential HIUs                      15                                 75%
              CIUs                                  25                                 75%

8.11          OPERATING INCOME

              CONNECTION CHARGES

              Connection charges are levied by ESCOs on new developments which connect to the network, as
              developers are able to avoid the cost of installing boilers/ associated energy centre plant. A
              connection charge is only applicable to new developments (as there is no such saving for existing
              buildings), i.e. the following:

              à Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood (Cribbs network)
              à Bristol Rovers/UWE stadium (UWE network)
              à Harry Stoke (UWE network)
              à Land East of Harry Stoke (UWE network)
              à Land east of Coldharbour Lane (UWE network)

              The following connection charges are used:

              Residential                                             £4000/dwelling
              Non-residential                                         £150/kW th

              Whilst connection charges are not normally possible for existing buildings capital contributions in
              lieu of replacement of existing plant can often be included in final commercial agreements. The
              potential for these contributions would need to be examined on a case by case basis during future
              more detailed studies.

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8.12          CONSUMER UNIT MAINTENANCE, METERING AND BILLING COSTS
              Item                                                   Cost per annum
              Domestic customers
              Account management                                     £85
              Heat Trust                                             £5
              Bi Annual HIU maintenance                              £25
              Total per annum                                        £115
              Commercial customers
              Account management                                     £400
              Annual CIU inspection and maintenance                  £100
              Total per annum                                        £500

8.13          HEAT SALES PRICES

              When obtaining heat supply from boilers, there are a number of elements which need to be taken
              into account – i.e. the price of heat is more than the price of the gas which goes into the boiler.
              These elements are the following:

              à Cost of gas, taking into account the efficiency of boilers which would have been required
                (under a gas boiler “base case” scenario) to generate heat.
              à Gas supplier’s standing charge
              à Boiler maintenance
              à Boiler replacement

              These elements are all taken into account when deriving the cost of heat sold to customers, so
              this price is higher than gas cost.

              The following heat sales prices are used, as within the Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood
              Heat Network Feasibility Study11. Heat prices are indexed through time in line with gas cost as per
              DECC Quarterly Price Projections, November 2015 (Gas Services Rate, Central Scenario)

              Table 8-8: Heat sales prices
              Customer type                                                  Price (p/kWh)
              New Residential                                               10.5
              New Non-Residential                                           7
              Existing Residential                                          10
              Existing Non-Residential                                      5.6

              11
                   Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood Heat Network Feasibility Study, WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff,
                    September 2015

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South Gloucestershire Council                                                                       Project No 3514120A-BEE
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