Petten 2020 Liability Estimate - Cost Estimate for the Decommissioning of the Petten Research Centre Campus - Rijksoverheid
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Petten 2020 Liability Estimate Cost Estimate for the Decommissioning of the Petten Research Centre Campus NRG 5 February 2021 5201713.01
Notice
This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely as information for NRG and use in
relation to providing a cost estimate for the decommissioning of the Petten Research Centre Campus, for
liability provisioning purposes.
Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with
this document and/or its contents.
This document has 43 pages including the cover.
Document history
Document title: Cost Estimate for the Decommissioning of the Petten Research Centre Campus
Document reference: 5201713.01
Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date
Final Draft Issue V1
Rev 1.0 RD N/A N/A N/A 4 Dec 20
Internal
Final draft to
accommodate a change
to COVRA unit cost for
Rev 2.0 waste disposal and RD AD OH OH 8 Dec 20
change in waste
categorisation
assumption
Verified final Draft for
Rev 3.0 RD AD OH OH 11 Dec 20
issue
Rev 4.0 Verified FINAL ISSUE RD RD OH OH 22 Dec 20
Realising the opportunity
for using 200 litre drums
Rev 5.0 RD RD OH OH 5 Feb 21
for ‘Non-Pressable’
Waste Only’
Client signoff
Client NRG
Project Petten 2020 Liability Estimate
Job number 5201713
Client
signature/date
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Contents
Chapter Page
Executive Summary 6
1. Introduction 7
1.1. Limitations 8
2. Basis of the Cost Estimate 9
2.1. Cost Estimate Basis 9
2.2. Schedule 11
2.3. Contingency Analysis 11
3. Total NRG Estimate 12
3.1. Reconciliation to 2017 Estimate 13
4. Hot Cell Laboratories 16
4.1. Description of the Facilities 16
4.2. Overall HCL Programme Estimate 17
4.3. Building 7 - Research Laboratory 17
4.4. Molybdenum Production Facility (MPF) 18
4.5. Discrete Programme Risk 20
5. Decontamination and Waste Treatment Area (DWT) 21
5.1. Description of the facilities 21
5.2. Overall DWT Programme Estimate 22
5.3. Building 21 - Decontamination Building 22
5.4. Building 22 - Water Treatment Building 24
5.5. Building 24 - Waste Transfer Unit 25
5.6. Building 25 - Solid Waste Treatment Facility (including the Stel-con
area used for decontamination) 26
5.7. Building 26 - Waste Storage Facility 27
5.8. Discrete Programme Risk 29
6. Other Buildings 30
6.1. Overall ‘Other Buildings’ Programme Estimate 30
6.2. Building 15 - GBD 30
6.3. Building 28 - Fermi Building 32
6.4. Building 400 - Jaap Goedkoop Laboratory 33
6.5. Discrete Programme Risk 34
7. Sea discharge line and other drains 35
7.1. Description of the facilities 35
7.2. Project Description and Schedule 35
7.3. Building specific assumptions, characteristics and factors 35
7.4. Programme Estimate Summary 36
7.5. Discrete Programme Risk 36
8. Benchmarking 37
8.1. Petten experience and actual costs 37
8.2. International comparison 38
8.3. Contingency 39
9. Summary, Recommendations and Opportunities 40
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WASTE ONLY Page 3 of 4310. References 40 Appendices 41 Appendix A. Labour Rates 42 Tables Table 3-1 - Total NRG Estimate 12 Table 3-2 - Reconciliation to 2017 estimate 13 Table 3-3 - Analysis of cost estimate increases in the 2020 estimate 14 Table 4-1 - 'Hot Cell Laboratories' - Programme Cost Estimate 17 Table 4-2 - Building 7 - Cost Estimate Summary 18 Table 4-3 – MPF - Cost Estimate Summary 20 Table 4-4 - Discrete Risks for the HCL Programme 20 Table 5-1 - DWT Compound – Programme Cost Estimate Summary 22 Table 5-2 - Building 21 - Cost Estimate Summary 23 Table 5-3 - Building 22 - Cost Estimate Summary 25 Table 5-4 - Building 24 - Cost Estimate Summary 26 Table 5-5 - Building 25 - Cost Estimate Summary 27 Table 5-6 - Building 26 - Cost Estimate Summary 29 Table 5-7 - Discrete Risks - DWT Programme 29 Table 6-1 - ‘Other’ Buildings - Cost Estimate Summary 30 Table 6-2 - Building 15 - Cost Estimate Summary 31 Table 6-3 - Building 28 - Cost Estimate Summary 32 Table 6-4 - Building 400 (JGL) - Cost Estimate Summary 34 Table 6-5 - Discrete Risks - Other Buildings Programme 34 Table 7-1 - Sea Discharge Line and Other Drains - Cost Estimate Summary 36 Table 8-1 - Building 5, 6 and 9 estimate and actual comparison 37 Table 8-2 - Benchmarking of other similar facilities 38 Table 8-3 - Contingency Analysis 39 Table 8-4 - Contingency Benchmarking 39 Figures Figure 1-1 - The Petten Site 7 Figure 3-1 - Netherlands Inflation (CPI) data 13 5201713.01 | 1.0 | 5 February 2021 Atkins | FINAL Report Petten Facilities Decommisisoning cost estimate 2020 v5.0 (200 Litre drum for NON PRESSABLE WASTE ONLY Page 4 of 43
Table of Abbreviations COVRA The Dutch Nuclear Waste Repository DWT Decontamination & Water Treatment GBD GezondheidsBeschermingDienst = Health Protection Services HCL Hot Cell Laboratories HFR High Flux Reactor JGL Jaap Goedkoop Laboratory LFR Low Flux Reactor MPF Molybdenum Production Facility mSv/hr Micro Sieverts per hour – A measure of Radiation dose NRG Nuclear Research & Consultancy Group RL Research Laboratory (Building 7) WBC Whole Body Counter WSF Waste Storage Facility WTU Waste Transfer Unit 5201713.01 | 1.0 | 5 February 2021 Atkins | FINAL Report Petten Facilities Decommisisoning cost estimate 2020 v5.0 (200 Litre drum for NON PRESSABLE WASTE ONLY Page 5 of 43
Executive Summary
Based on the detailed work performed for the scope of this cost estimating assignment, the cost estimate of
€118M as detailed in Section 3 represents a ‘True and Fair’ view of the costs which will likely be incurred to
perform all the nuclear decommissioning work identified. This is based on scope to perform the work to
decommission the facilities listed in Section 1 to a state of ‘Green Field’ and the key assumptions noted in this
report.
A fundamental opportunity is being realised in this estimate for decommissioning, insofar as it has been
assumed that 200 litre ‘COVRA’ drums can be used to for ‘Non Pressable’ waste only. This equates to
80% of all radioactive waste. The remaining 20% of the ‘Pressable’ waste will be packaged into 90 litre
drums and is considered to be a cost effective package.
Decommissioning work has been considered on a programme, project and activity basis; that is to say that the
site decommissioning activities will be split into four distinct but integrated programmes of work. This approach
has been utilised in the UK and has been proven to provide organisational synergies and be economically
beneficial. All project costs have been considered on an activity basis.
This liability estimate has also considered the parametric modelling of demolition and asbestos removal activities
based on those which have already been performed at NRG on Buildings 5, 6 & 9.
The development of this liability estimate has also considered a more detailed review of ‘Discrete Risks’, based
on the assumptions raised in Section 1 and the arising uncertainties so as to capture a reasonable level of
contingency. This in turn, has been benchmarked against other similar scopes of work.
This estimate realises an increase against the cost estimate assignment for NRG facilities at the Petten site in
2017, of €21M. This is due to additional facilities being considered in this 2020 estimate, an increase in Waste
Disposal costs to ‘COVRA’, a reassessment of some of the labour requirements to reflect some of the more
contaminated areas of the site, some inflationary impacts and a more detailed and considered analysis of
‘Discrete Risk’ in the programme. Some cost decreases are reported, and these are due to the cost benefits of
the ‘Programmised’ approach adopted and from the parametric modelling of the Asbestos Removal and
Demolition costs already incurred for the decommissioning of Buildings 5, 6 & 9. A full reconciliation and
explanation of variances to the 2017 estimate, are discussed further in Section 3.1.
In order to further ensure the integrity of this estimate, work has been performed to benchmark this estimate
against other similar nuclear decommissioning projects and programmes across the world in particular in the UK,
the US and in Europe. It is considered that the estimate presented is consistent with these estimates having
adjusted for factors such as international or cultural differences in labour rates and productivity. Contingency
provisions which represent 22.4% of the total cost estimate are also parametrically analysed and considered to
be consistent to other similar programmes and projects.
Within the €118M estimate, there is a provision for labour of €58.6M which itself includes recovery of €16M
overhead. This review has taken the labour rates provided by NRG which assume an element of overhead
recovery. This review assumes that the labour rates provided will recover all required overhead and that there
will be no significant over or under recovery of this provision.
Recommendations are made in this report to consider future site operations and to progress the realisation of
the following key opportunities and risk mitigations:
1. Maintain the high standards of housekeeping and seek to decontaminate the ‘Hot Cells’ in particular by
performing decontamination works during periods of building or facility ‘outage’, and where it is safe and
economical to do so.
2. Consider challenging the ‘Green Field’ status to which the decommissioning has to be performed, in
order to justify for example some flexibility around the removal of foundation pilings below a specific level.
3. Separate ‘Support & Overhead’ costs from the labour rates and treat the support and overhead costs as
a specific programme which will make such costs more visible, controllable and subject to performance
monitoring.
Limitations of this review are also noted in Section 1.
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WASTE ONLYV1.0 Page 6 of 431. Introduction
The ‘Nuclear Research & Consultancy Group’ (NRG) is the owner, operator & licence holder of a number of
Radiation Research Facilities and Laboratories within a site located at Petten, Netherlands. Aside from the
research activities performed at the site, NRG is Europe’s single biggest producer and supplier of ‘Molybdenum’,
a radiation source used widely across Europe in hospitals for cancer and other treatments.
NRG require a liability estimate for the cost of decommissioning these facilities to support the ongoing planning
for the future closure of these facilities which is not expected to commence until 2040-2050. It is understood that
this estimate will be used as the basis for a provision to be raised by NRG in its financial statements to reflect the
expected cost of the nuclear decommissioning of its facilities.
NRG have previously engaged Atkins in the construction of a liability estimate for the decommissioning of Petten
facilities in 2017.
The totality of the Petten site consists of a number of radioactive material processing facilities, waste treatment
areas, as well as conventional buildings including office accommodation, which are owned by a number of
different organisations.
Figure 1-1 - The Petten Site
The ‘NRG’ facilities shown in Figure 1 are highlighted in Green. In accordance with instruction from NRG, the
facilities or buildings required to form this estimate is limited only to those buildings which contain a ‘Radioactive
Condition’.
It was agreed with NRG that for this 2020 iteration of the cost estimate the following facilities and buildings would
be included:
• Building 7 Research laboratory
• Molybdenum Production Facility (MPF)
• *Building 15 GBD Building
• Building 21 Decontamination Building
• Building 22 Water Treatment Building
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WASTE ONLYV1.0 Page 7 of 43• * Building 24 WTU Building
• Building 25 Solid Waste Processing Building (including the Stel-con area used for decontamination)
• Building 26 Waste Storage Facility
• * Building 28 ‘Fermi Lab’
• * Building 400 ‘Jaap Goedkoop’ Laboratory
• ‘Sea Discharge Line’ and ‘Other Drains’ between the above buildings
* These facilities were not previously estimated in 2017.
Note: There were three facilities which formed part of the estimate in 2017 (Buildings 5, 6 & 9) which have since
been demolished and returned to a state of ‘Green Field’ and therefore do not form part of the 2020 estimate.
In agreement with NRG, this 2020 cost estimate is calculated as if each area will be decommissioned as a
programme of works. Based on the practical decommissioning programme experience of the Atkins team, the
site is therefore divided into four distinct programmes from an organisational perspective such that NRG will
benefit economically from project synergies where they would likely exist in terms of knowledge,
decommissioning techniques, waste characterisations and physical location. This is a change in approach from
the 2017 estimate where each building was conservatively assumed to have its own project team.
The programmes have been defined as:
• ‘Hot Cell Laboratories’ (Building 7 & MPF);
• ‘Decontamination and Waste Treatment’ (DWT) facilities (Buildings 21, 22, 24, 25, 26);
• ‘Other Buildings’ (Buildings 15, 28 & 400); and
• ‘Sea Discharge Line and Other Drains’
The estimate is provided to meet the requirement of this assignment to take account of all costs associated with
the decommissioning of these research and processing facilities. In order to assist with benchmarking, these
costs are presented in accordance with the ‘International Standard for Decommissioning Costs’ (ISDC) format.
The costs are presented as:
• Labour costs
• Materials and equipment
• Other (External contract and waste container/COVRA disposal costs)
• Contingency consisting of estimating uncertainty and discrete risk
This document provides an estimate of the costs of decommissioning the research facilities and buildings listed
above, and is an update of the cost estimate carried out in 2017 (Ref 1)
A ‘Benchmarking’ exercise has also been completed to confirm that the estimates are in line with international
experience. In making the comparison between Netherlands and UK facilities, consideration has been made of
similarities and differences between the two countries. Similarities include similar technical understanding of the
challenges and the basis of regulation (EU based). Variations include differences in labour rates, productivity,
waste management (on-site versus off-site storage) and nuclear site staffing levels (UK sites labour costs are
driven by additional bureaucracy).
A further issue in carrying out benchmarking is the issue of currency changes. Estimates are made in 2020
Euros. Comparison with UK projects over the last 10 years is then used to calibrate or adjust these numbers,
but over the same period there have been significant changes in the GBP Euro exchange rate.
Section 3.1 of this report provides a reconciliation of this 2020 estimate with that provided in 2017 along with
analysis of the variations it contains.
1.1. Limitations
This estimating assignment was performed during a time of travel restrictions and various international ‘lockdown’
conditions caused by the ‘Covid-19’ pandemic. As such it was not possible to physically visit the site and its
processing and waste facilities, research laboratories and other buildings. A visit to the site and its facilities was
however made by a member of the Atkins estimating team back in 2017.
Presentations were also made by senior representatives and scope owners from NRG and information discovery
sessions have taken place with respect to the current activities and condition of the facilities in order to assist
with the delivery of this decommissioning cost estimate.
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WASTE ONLYV1.0 Page 8 of 432. Basis of the Cost Estimate 2.1. Cost Estimate Basis 2.1.1. Estimate Classification As with any project estimate, the estimates presented have an element of inherent uncertainty. Such uncertainty is particularly pertinent in this market because of the uncertain nature of high hazard nuclear decommissioning work and when considering the time proximity as to when the work will commence. The overall uncertainty on a cost estimate such as this is expected to be in the range of -30% to +50%, or Class 4 as defined in DOE G 413.3-21 Cost Estimating Guide (Ref 2). It can also be expected that the estimate class will improve as more information is known and as the work gets closer to execution and scope, time and cost uncertainties reduce. 2.1.2. Estimate Methodology This estimate uses a simplified Engineering Cost Estimating method, supported by qualified and expert judgement. It builds the overall cost estimate by summing estimates of cost at lower levels of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Each project has been broken into work packages which have been derived from the ISDC standard WBS (Ref 3) and these lower-level components are costed separately as follows: Labour NRG have stated that they intend to pursue a self-perform strategy where it has the skills to perform decommissioning works, so the majority of cost will be from employment of NRG staff. Labour cost is provided by combining direct labour hours with a labour rate to the work element. The Labour rates have been supplied by NRG and incorporate provisions to cover the site overhead (eg costs of security, regulatory fees, routine and corrective maintenance, management oversight and support infrastructure) as well as the total cost of employment. Estimates for direct labour hours are based on expert judgement and previous decommissioning experience at Petten (Ref 5). Materials Direct materials will include the equipment, consumables and personal protective equipment specifically required to carry out the project work. This will cover costs of materials and equipment which are specific to the project and are not covered by the normal site overhead. Estimates for direct materials are based on a percentage of labour usage and therefore cost. This estimating methodology is based upon experience of similar work on other nuclear decommissioning projects. The cost of materials and equipment form part of the benchmarking exercise are reported in Section 8. Other Costs The remaining elements of cost (such as costs of external contracts for asbestos and demolition, waste disposal to COVRA) are estimated separately. It is assumed that the removal of asbestos from buildings and their demolition will be carried out by external contractors, as this is specialist work that NRG does not have the skills or equipment to carry out. There is a cost for an asbestos contract and a demolition contract for each building. Experience from the UK would highlight that the removal of Asbestos can be time consuming in terms of its identification and safe recovery in particular where the Asbestos is currently inaccessible and where it will be radiologically contaminated. Experience also dictates that the volumes of Asbestos which should be anticipated can be significant in buildings constructed in the 1960’s and 1970’s, and this is factored into the contingency calculations. The base estimate for Asbestos and Demolition costs are derived by a parametric method from actual costs of asbestos removal and demolition of buildings 5, 6 and 9 (Ref 5). 5201713.01 | 1.0 | 5 February 2021 Atkins | FINAL Report Petten Facilities Decommisisoning cost estimate 2020 v5.0 (200 Litre drum for NON PRESSABLE WASTE ONLYV1.0 Page 9 of 43
Conventional waste mainly consists of concrete, brick, and to a lesser extent steel, system walls, glass, and other demolition material. Estimates of the quantities of conventional and radioactive waste from the various facilities and buildings are taken from Ref 5. It is noted whether or not a building contains asbestos, although the exact volumes or locations remain largely unknown. Conventional waste disposal is costed within the demolition contract costs. Disposal costs of radioactive waste to the Dutch waste repository ‘COVRA’ have been based on revised estimates for the unit rates of waste disposal (€ per litre), or a landfill for conventional waste is only planned if other waste routes are not possible or accepted. The unit rates for waste disposal at COVRA have increased significantly since 2017 and this is considered further in Section 3.1. Estimates for waste quantities are reflective of waste to be retrieved after the removal of radioactive sources, inventory and other operational wastes from the facilities, and after performance of the general cleaning and decontamination operations that are part of normal operations. The disposal costs at COVRA are included in the study by means of unit waste costs (Ref 6). It is assumed that a volume of contaminated low-level waste arises from each project, and that a 90% decontamination rate will be achieved; the risk that this is not achieved is considered in ‘Discrete Risks’. The remaining conditioned waste is disposed of to COVRA. These estimates are based on the current inventories of materials. For Building 7 and MPF, there is also assumed to be some residual intermediate level waste that cannot be decontaminated to lower levels. Building 24 is currently in a ‘clean’ state, however it is understood that a ‘Waste Transfer Unit’ will be installed into this building and as such provision is included for the decontamination and decommissioning of this unit also. 2.1.3. Scope References The scope of work is set out in the ‘Decommissioning plan for the installations under the installation license of NRG’ or ‘Preliminary Decommissioning Plan’ (PDP) 913243/19.154472 rev 2 2019 (Ref 4) 2.1.4. Estimate Assumptions & Exclusions Key Assumptions The end state required is green field, i.e. buildings, footings and pilings are completely removed and there is to be no residual contamination above free release levels NRG will perform the work using internal labour unless the skills and equipment do not exist in house. Labour rates include all costs of labour and recovery of site support overhead. These are provided in Appendix 1 All operational waste will have been removed from buildings during operation Of the radioactive waste to be packaged, 80% will be ‘Non-Pressable’ and will be packaged into 200 litre packages with the remaining 20% of waste being Pressable’ and sentenced to 90 litre COVRA packages. It is assumed that this split of packages will be acceptable to COVRA and will satisfy regulatory requirements and safety cases concerned for the types of containers to be utilised. All non-radioactive drains are free from radioactivity Buildings constructed in the 1960s are likely to contain asbestos in their construction, buildings built after 1990 are asbestos free There is no contamination in the ground around the buildings The decommissioning work will be carried out in four independent programmes: Hot Cell Facilities, DWT, Other buildings and Sea discharge line and drains These key assumptions form the basis of the Discrete Risks and Opportunities. 2.1.5. Productivity Factors As this estimate is made on assessments made by experienced Programme Managers (and based on similar working situations) or based upon a Contractors Fixed Price Contract, the estimates are all inclusive of any issues that might affect productivity, such as encumbrance (access constraints) and working within Contamination Controlled or Radiation Controlled Areas. 5201713.01 | 1.0 | 5 February 2021 Atkins | FINAL Report Petten Facilities Decommisisoning cost estimate 2020 v5.0 (200 Litre drum for NON PRESSABLE WASTE ONLYV1.0 Page 10 of 43
2.1.6. Procurement Strategy It is assumed that the strategy for carrying out the work will be self-performed by NRG staff supplemented by subcontractors where there is a shortage of skills and/or competence on site to do the work, for example asbestos removal and demolition. It is assumed that supply chain conditions will persist which will enable suitably qualified and experienced suppliers and contractors to be available in a competitive market environment. 2.1.7. Common Services Costs for common services on site are assumed to be included within the NRG labour rates 2.1.8. Overhead Costs Site overhead costs are assumed to be included in the NRG labour rates. 2.1.9. Indexation All estimates are provided in 2020 money values. To aid with the reconciliation of the 2017-2020 estimates, the 2017 cost estimate has been uplifted by 6.1% in line with published data for the Netherlands CPI between October 2017 and October 2020. 2.2. Schedule The work is too far in the future to have any detailed schedule prepared. The assumed overall schedule durations are based on the Pre-Decommissioning Plan (Ref 4), with duration of individual activities being based on expert judgement from the Programme Managers. 2.3. Contingency Analysis Project uncertainties are typically classified as ‘Estimate Uncertainty’, ‘Discrete Risk Uncertainty’, and ‘Schedule Duration Uncertainty’. Contingency within the estimate is analysed and benchmarked against other similar nuclear decommissioning programmes in section 8.2. 2.3.1. Estimating uncertainty Estimate uncertainty is determined through an evaluation of the maturity of the information on which the estimate is based. Atkins has identified a standard estimate uncertainty approach based on the assumption of the estimate classification. Generally, the contingency for estimating uncertainty has been added at 10% within project activities, this being the mid-point of estimating uncertainty within a ‘Class D’ estimate (-30% to +50%) as defined in DOE G 413.3- 21 Cost Estimating Guide (Ref 2). Where there is greater uncertainty in the work to be done, for example where the extent of scope is not clear or where an inventory assessment will be difficult, a measure of 25% estimating uncertainty has been applied. 2.3.2. Discrete risks Contingency provision due to ‘Discrete Risk’ is determined through a high level risk management process that identifies the main risks to the projects known at any given point and are based the key assumptions. These risks are evaluated based upon the current residual impact and probability of occurrence. It is assumed that mitigation activities are carried out within the labour estimate where appropriate and the post-mitigated risk evaluation is used to derive the contingency. For the purposes of this estimate a standard methodology has been utilised for estimating discrete risk, that is to say, an assessment has been made of the risk materialising and this is multiplied by the considered probability of impact. For reference and for benchmarking, an accrual based method has been considered whereby the full impact of contingencies are considered where the probability of impact is considered to be 50% or greater. In the case of this estimate the two methods have been considered and the delta between the two is not considered to be material. The standard estimating methodology is therefore taken into the estimate. 5201713.01 | 1.0 | 5 February 2021 Atkins | FINAL Report Petten Facilities Decommisisoning cost estimate 2020 v5.0 (200 Litre drum for NON PRESSABLE WASTE ONLYV1.0 Page 11 of 43
2.3.3. Schedule uncertainty
It is not possible to carry out schedule uncertainty analysis in the absence of a detailed schedule. Therefore, for
each of the four programmes, schedule uncertainty is represented by a single risk of delay within Discrete Risks.
3. Total NRG Estimate
Calculations for the cost estimate to decommission the NRG facilities are presented by programme as follows:
All figures in Euro Thousands
Total Materials &
Contract Costs
Total Cost Contingency Base Cost Labour Equipment Other Costs
A=B+C B C=D+E+F+G D E F G
2020 estimate 118,291 27,150 91,141 58,621 8,068 7,874 16,577
Total NRG Estimate 2017 Estimate uplifted 103,236 16,420 86,816 65,473 - 5,237 16,106
2017 estimate 97,327 15,480 81,847 61,726 - 4,938 15,184
2020 estimate 69,163 15,647 53,517 34,364 2,237 5,106 11,809
Hot Cell Laboratories - Programme
2017 Estimate uplifted 59,813 9,439 50,374 34,961 - 2,959 12,453
Total
2017 estimate 56,389 8,899 47,490 32,960 - 2,790 11,740
2020 estimate 30,301 7,388 22,913 14,840 3,288 1,849 2,936
DWT Compound - Programme Total 2017 Estimate uplifted 24,761 3,874 20,886 17,319 - 1,313 2,255
2017 estimate 23,343 3,653 19,691 16,328 - 1,238 2,126
2020 estimate 5,050 590 4,461 2,404 820 253 983
Sea Discharge and other lines 2017 Estimate uplifted 4,170 648 3,522 2,975 - 276 271
2017 estimate 3,931 611 3,320 2,805 - 260 255
2020 estimate 13,777 3,526 10,251 7,012 1,723 666 849
Other Buildings 2017 Estimate uplifted 14,493 2,458 12,034 10,217 - 689 1,127
2017 estimate 13,664 2,317 11,346 9,633 - 650 1,063
Table 3-1 - Total NRG Estimate
Note - The ‘Other Costs’ in column G above relate to the costs of disposing radiological waste to ‘COVRA’
Labour costs (column D) incorporates a provision of €16M for site overhead recovery.
Each of the Programme estimates are considered in Sections 4, 5, 6 and 7, with the detailed calculations in the
Appendices.
While the detailed calculations have been created on an individual programme and project basis, an exercise
has been performed to ‘Benchmark’ these cost estimates against other similar nuclear facilities embarking on
nuclear decommissioning programmes across the world, and this is reported in Section 8.
Contingency requirements are also considered in each of the individual programme sections, and also considered
as a benchmark for contingencies against other similar programmes in section 8.1.
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Part of the Benchmarking exercise is to reconcile to what had previously been presented in the same estimating
exercise in the previous 2017 estimate to ensure consistency of approach and to suitably explain variations to
ensure the integrity of the estimate. The reconciliation is presented as follows:
Reconciliation of estimate €000
2017 Estimate 97,327
Netherlands CPI Uplift (Oct 2017 - Oct 2020) 5,910 6.1%
less Buildings 5, 6 & 9 Decommissioned (14,493)
add New Buildings 15, 24, 28 & 400 15,599
Discrete Risks 14,250
Estimate increase / (decrease) (302)
2020 Estimate 118,291
Table 3-2 - Reconciliation to 2017 estimate
3.1.1. Netherlands inflation Uplift
The uplift in prices has been taken from the published CPI data as follows:
CPI % change
Oct-20 108.3
Oct-19 107.3
6.1%
Oct-18 104.2
Oct-17 102.1
Figure 3-1 - Netherlands Inflation (CPI) data
The outcome is that 2017 price values need to be uplifted by 6.1% in order to provide a suitable comparison.
(108.3/102.1 = 1.061)
3.1.2. Buildings 5, 6 & 9
This cost represents the values incorporated in the 2017 estimate which have been decommissioned since 2017
and therefore are eliminated from this estimate. Actual cost data supplied by NRG from the decommissioning of
these buildings has been parametrically modelled to create estimates for the Demolition and Asbestos Removal
activities of other NRG buildings and facilities pertinent to this estimate.
The actual cost data collated from NRG is not reflective of the full costs of decommissioning since at least 75%
of the decontamination and decommissioning work had already been completed prior to the capturing of any
costs. This is considered in more detail in Section 8.1 however it is reasonable to assert that all Asbestos
Recovery and Building Demolition costs were captured in the cost data provided and is therefore a sensible basis
for parametric cost modelling for other building estimates.
3.1.3. New Buildings 15, 24, 28 & 400
These buildings did not form part of the cost estimate in 2017, but in line with instruction received from NRG have
been included in this 2020 cost estimate.
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Owing to time constraints with the preparation of the 2017 estimate risk and contingency was considered against
each activity as a complete cost provision.
A more considered approach has been used for the 2020 estimate for contingency assessment which is
consistent with international estimating methods and more likely to be reflective of international decommissioning
experiences. That is to say that contingency has been considered in terms of both ‘Estimating Uncertainty’ which
is included in each of the building estimates and explained in Section 2.3.1, and ‘Discrete Risk’.
Discrete Risks have been considered for each programme and focuses on the main assumptions upon which the
estimate is based, and the likelihood and impact of these assumptions being breached. Details for each of the
values for Discrete Risk are tabled in sections 4, 5 & 6 with a benchmarking exercise performed as to the overall
view on the contingency estimate provided in Benchmarking section 8.
3.1.5. Estimate increase
There are some areas where costs changes have been experienced in the estimate as a result of:
- Known unit rate changes (eg waste disposal costs),
- Change in approach to the estimating (eg Programmisation) or
- A reassessment as to the time it will take, or the costs involved in performing decommissioning work.
This in turn could be because either better data is available from other known decommissioning works
at similar facilities, there is now a better understanding of the scope of work, or simply there has been a
different view taken on the costs of performing the work.
The analysis of the cost increases between the 2020 and 2017 estimates, forming part of this reconciliation is
as follows:
Analysis of Estimate increase Hot Cell Laboratories - Sea
All figures in €000 Programme Total DWT Compound - Programme Total Discharge
Total Building 7 MPF Building 21 Building 22 Building 25 Building 26 Line
Labour 8,990 1,459 5,289 523 492 896 252 78
Waste Disposal 303 (472) (172) (6) (22) (4) 267 713
Demolition (4,976) (1,303) (817) 125 (2,070) 46 (1,067) 110
Asbestos 1,422 458 0 252 150 74 489 0
Programmisation (8,607) (484) (4,248) (1,063) (89) (1,009) (1,063) (652)
Other (e.g. Mats & Equip) 2,566 1,009 1,156 (87) (245) 174 (72) 632
Total (302) 668 1,207 (257) (1,784) 178 (1,195) 881
Table 3-3 - Analysis of cost estimate increases in the 2020 estimate
3.1.5.1. Labour
The main estimate change is an increase in the time it is will take to perform the initial decontamination work in
the ‘Hot Cells’ programme (Building 7 and the MPF). In particular the realisation of the contamination levels
which exist within the ‘Hot Cells’ themselves.
The Hot Cells consist of a 6mm Stainless Steel box within which radiation experiments and processing occurs.
The boxes are surrounded by a construction of lead brick enclosure which provides a shielding barrier for the
radiation emitting from the boxes. The radiological contamination arisings from activities within the ‘Hot Cells’
were discussed at the 2020 estimate presentations and represent significant doses of radiation. As such this will
take a significant amount of time to clean and decontaminate using a simple but cost-effective remote technique.
The assumption is that this technique will be successful in reducing contamination levels such that the brick can
be removed and the stainless-steel boxes manually retrieved and packaged ahead of their onward despatch to
‘COVRA’. The risk that this technique will be unsuccessful is considered in Discrete Risks, section 4.5.
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The costs of waste disposal are predicated on:
- The assumptions for waste quantities confirmed by NRG, the discrete risks of which are considered in
sections 4, 5 & 6.
- The costs of waste disposal. The costs being passed on by COVRA to accept and store waste packages
are higher than those assumed in 2017, this is consistent with information presented by the NRG
representatives which highlighted significant increases in waste disposal costs (up to 17.5% per year).
3.1.5.3. Demolition and Asbestos
The cost estimates for Demolition and Asbestos removal have been taken from the parametric modelling
performed based on the Buildings 5, 6 & 9 which have now been decommissioned. Overall, there is a decrease
in the cost estimate for demolition work, while Asbestos Removal highlights a marginal increase from the
parametric modelling. Experience has however dictated that it is likely that more Asbestos will be found in
Buildings which were built in the 1960’s and 1970’s in particular, and as such this is considered within the ‘Discrete
Risk’ sections of each Programme.
3.1.5.4. Programmisation
Section 1 outlines a change in approach to the estimating, insofar as the work from an organisational perspective
will be best delivered as a series of Programmes. The synergy which NRG will benefit from here will relate to
the fact that the project management teams will be assigned to each programme rather than each project. This
is consistent with experience gained from other nuclear decommissioning programmes.
3.1.5.5. Materials and Equipment
The valuation of specific materials and equipment used in decommissioning is generally a function of the labour
using it. That is to say that as the labour requirement increases, so too does the need for materials, equipment,
personal protective clothing, laundry etc
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4.1. Description of the Facilities
The ‘Hot Cell Laboratories’ (HCL) consists of two independent buildings. These are:
• Building 7, the Research Laboratory (RL), and
• The Molybdenum Production Facility (MPF).
The two buildings are interconnected by corridors and a connecting hallway that can be used as an escape route.
The RL is used to carry out extensive research programmes on nuclear fuels and structural materials derived
from graphite moderated reactors, light-water reactors, fast breeder reactors and fusion reactor technology.
Radioisotopes (medical and non-medical) are also pre-processed, packaged and transported, and low and
intermediate level waste is conditioned and packaged, e.g. characterised, separated, reduced in size and
packaged.
The RL building is a structurally independent facility for which the building permit was issued on 27 November
1961; the laboratory was inaugurated on 5 December 1964. The RL was expanded in 1995 to include the
Molybdenum Production Facility (HCL-MPF), which is described in Section 4.4.
The building contains a central hall, which is surrounded on the south side by concrete-enclosed hot cells. This
cell line is designed for processing highly active (HA) components. Lead-lined hot cells, the 'lead cells' (F-cells
and G-cells), are located on the east and north sides. These lead cells may contain small amounts of activity and
are equipped with equipment to measure mechanical properties and to carry out metallographic procedures. All
cells are fitted with lead glass windows. A separate part of the building contains the actinide laboratory in which
chemical research is carried out on non-irradiated samples of actinides in gloveboxes.
The building contains two basements capable of providing dry interim storage of radioactive objects.
All parts of the facility are connected to the ventilation system, and the ventilation is fitted with absolute filters.
From routine operations it is known that the ventilation system is clean beyond these filters.
Characteristic work in RL involves:
• dismantling irradiation capsules by mechanical operations;
• conditioning, separation, reduction and packaging of radioactive waste;
• supply and removal of radioactive material to or from the cell line and the storage basin;
• non-destructive testing (NDT) of nuclear fuels and irradiated capsules;
• destructive testing of substances other than nuclear fuels;
• chemical treatment of material other than nuclear fuels.
The following waste streams can be distinguished at HCL-RL.
• Solid and liquid waste from the production of isotopes for medical and industrial applications;
• Waste from experiments;
• Waste generated during the operation and maintenance of HCL-RL;
• Waste from the processing of legacy waste in Building 26, the Waste Storage Facility (WSF); see Section
5.7.
After processing, the waste is transferred to COVRA, possibly after temporary storage in WSF.
Certain research techniques release gaseous fission products, which are discharged in a controlled way through
the adjacent chimney. These emissions almost exclusively involve the noble gases krypton and xenon.
The HCL-RL is constructed of brick and (probably also partially reinforced) concrete. The open central space in
the building is equipped with a large overhead crane. There are storage pipes in the floor. There is also a small
water basin, intended for the storage of irradiated material.
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All figures in Euro Thousands
Contract Materials &
Total Cost Contingency Base Cost Labour Costs Equipment Other Costs
C=D+E+F+
A=B+C B G D E F G
2020 estimate 69,163 15,647 53,517 34,364 2,237 5,106 11,809
2017 Estimate uplifted 59,813 9,439 50,374 34,961 0 2,959 12,453
2017 estimate 56,389 8,899 47,490 32,960 0 2,790 11,740
Discrete risk 7,475 7,475
Building 7
2020 estimate 36,174 5,184 30,990 19,553 1,780 2,747 6,910
2017 Estimate uplifted 35,506 5,579 29,927 20,695 0 1,851 7,382
2017 estimate 33,474 5,260 28,214 19,510 0 1,745 6,959
MPF
2020 estimate 25,514 2,988 22,527 14,812 457 2,359 4,899
2017 Estimate uplifted 24,307 3,861 20,447 14,267 0 1,108 5,071
2017 estimate 22,916 3,640 19,276 13,450 0 1,045 4,781
Table 4-1 - 'Hot Cell Laboratories' - Programme Cost Estimate
4.3. Building 7 - Research Laboratory
4.3.1. Project Description and Schedule
The project scope is to complete the decommissioning of the facility to a green field. This will be a 6-year project.
It is assumed that one year will be spent in preparing the decommissioning plan, getting approval for the project
(financial and safety) and procurement of specialist contractors.
The second year will involve post operational clean out, characterisation, removal of residual asbestos, and the
start of decontamination on the cell line.
The third year will involve the decontamination and dismantling of the cell line, including the two facilities at either
end of the building
The fourth year will involve decontamination and dismantling of the caves, as well as the basin and storage cells.
The fifth year will be final decontamination activities for the ventilation plant and demolition of building structures.
The final year will involve the final clearance of the facility. A final free release survey will be carried out along
with final site landscaping.
4.3.2. Building specific assumptions, characteristics and factors
The following assumptions have been made based upon site visits and information provided by NRG:
• The ventilation plant is contaminated up to the HEPA filters
• The pond liner has not leaked.
• The foul drain system is not contaminated.
• Radioactive waste will be packaged into 90 litre COVRA drums
• The bulk of waste will be free released, with decontamination in the Petten facility if required
• Non-decontaminable radioactive waste not requiring shielding will be packaged in 90 litre containers–
assume 115m3 arising
• Of the non-decontaminable waste, some will be intermediate level radioactive waste requiring shielding.
This will be packaged in 90 litre drums assume 50m3 arising
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resulting in additional site remediation.
• The cost of removal of 11300m3 of conventional waste to be recycled or disposed of is included in the
demolition contract.
• Disposal of asbestos waste arising is included in the asbestos removal contract
• This estimate contains the Project management element for the Hot Cells Facilities Programme
4.3.3. Cost Estimate Summary – Building 7
All figures in €000.
Material
ISDC Level
Labour Contract and Other Estimating
1
costs Costs Equipment costs Base cost Contingency Total cost
01 Pre-decommissioning 783 0 20 0 803 80 883
02 Facility shutdown activities 1,018 0 204 0 1,221 122 1,343
Additional activities for safe
03
enclosure or entombment
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dismantling activities within the
04
controlled area
8,274 566 1,655 0 10,495 2,098 12,593
Waste processing, storage and
05
disposal
4,244 0 849 6,910 12,002 2,237 14,239
06 Site infrastructure and operation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Conventional dismantling,
07
demolition and site restoration
50 1,214 20 0 1,284 128 1,413
Project management,
08
engineering and site support
5,184 0 0 0 5,184 518 5,702
09 Research and development 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 Fuel and nuclear material 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 Miscellaneous expenditures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 19,553 1,780 2,747 6,910 30,990 17% 36,174
Table 4-2 - Building 7 - Cost Estimate Summary
4.4. Molybdenum Production Facility (MPF)
4.4.1. Description of the facilities
The Molybdenum Production Facility (MPF) is an integral part of the Hot Cell Laboratories (HCL), which in
addition to MPF also includes the Research Laboratory (RL, see Section 4.3). The MPF is a structural extension
of the RL building and is located on its west side.
It is where the isotope molybdenum-99 is separated from 'targets'. The targets, consisting of an alloy of aluminium
and enriched U-235, are irradiated with neutrons in the HFR to produce Mo-99 as one of the fission products of
the uranium. This radionuclide decays to the isotope technetium-99m, which is used for medical diagnostic
applications. Separation of the Mo-99 isotope is a chemical process that involves a number of purification and
separation steps.
The process produces solid, liquid and gaseous radioactive waste. The process steps are always designed to
minimise the amount of waste generated during the production process. Working procedures have been devised
in such a way that no unnecessary waste is generated.
Solid waste drums are temporarily stored in the HCL-RL storage facility in order to eliminate short-lived
radioactive substances, after which they are transported to COVRA for processing. Liquid waste is stored in small
drums and transported to COVRA for processing. Gaseous radioactive waste is discharged by the cell ventilation
system through delay filters to the HCL chimney.
The building's exterior walls are brick construction, while the basement, floors and roof are constructed of
reinforced concrete. Exterior walls have cavity wall insulation. The building has a steel-beam frame structure.
Rough masonry interior walls have been erected between the beams (columns). The foundation consists of
reinforced concrete beams and foundation piles driven to a depth of 20 meters.
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short-term storage of liquid waste. The access to both rooms is barred by a lead-filled door and a stacked lead
wall.
The maintenance/transport hall (M/T hall) occupies the central area on the ground floor. This hall is where the
two cell lines are located. An overhead crane has been installed in the M/T hall. A production line is operated
from workstations located on the east and west sides of the M/T hall. There is also a radiation monitoring room
in the south end of MPF, as well as a number of workstations and laboratories.
The liquid-waste transport sluice and transfer area is located at the north end. The rooms are separated by
removable partitions. A hatch in the ceiling of the transport sluice provides access to the M/T hall.
The first-floor wraps around the M/T hall and therefore has a U-shape. A room on the southwest side houses the
air supply systems. The filter units, fans and glovebox for the production lines are located on the east and west
sides. The south part of the U-shape is also equipped with filter boxes and air extraction fans.
4.4.2. Project Description and Schedule
The project scope is to complete the decommissioning of the facility to a green field. This will be a 5-year project.
It is assumed that one year will be spent in preparing the decommissioning plan, getting approval for the project
(financial and safety) and procurement of specialist contractors.
The second year will involve post operational clean out, characterisation, and the start of decontamination on the
cell lines.
The third year will involve the decontamination and dismantling of the cell lines, decontamination of the liquid
tanks and the ventilation plant.
The fourth year will include the dismantling of the liquid tanks and the demolition of the building structure.
The final year will involve the final clearance of the facility. A final free release survey will be carried out along
with final site landscaping.
4.4.3. Building specific assumptions, characteristics and factors
The following assumptions have been made based upon earlier site visits and information provided by NRG:
• The starting point for the decommissioning is that there are no operational wastes remaining in the facility
as these have all been processed during operation
• The ventilation plant is contaminated
• The drainage system is contaminated.
• The foul drain system is not contaminated.
• It is assumed that it will be possible to decontaminate the cell boxes to levels where they can be size
reduced manually
• Decontamination fluids will leave via the COVRA liquids route
• The bulk of waste will be free released, with decontamination in the Petten facility if required
• Non-decontaminable radioactive waste not requiring shielding will be packaged in 90 litre containers –
assume 70m3 arising
• Of the non-decontaminable waste, some will be intermediate level radioactive waste requiring shielding.
This will be packaged in 90 litre drums assume 50m 3 arising
• There is no contamination of the ground under the foundation of the facilities during decommissioning,
resulting in additional site remediation.
• The cost of removal of 1,220m3 of conventional waste to be recycled or disposed of is included in the
demolition contract.
• There is no asbestos in this facility
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All figures in € Thousands
Material
ISDC Level
Labour Contract and Other Estimating
1
costs Costs Equipment costs Base cost Contingency Total cost
01 Pre-decommissioning 783 0 20 0 803 80 883
02 Facility shutdown activities 1,708 0 20 0 1,728 173 1,901
Additional activities for safe
03
enclosure or entombment
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dismantling activities within the
04
controlled area
7,252 0 1,450 0 8,703 870 9,573
Waste processing, storage and
05
disposal
4,244 0 849 4,899 9,991 1,734 11,725
06 Site infrastructure and operation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Conventional dismantling,
07
demolition and site restoration
0 457 20 0 477 48 525
Project management,
08
engineering and site support
825 0 0 0 825 83 908
09 Research and development 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0
Fuel and nuclear material 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 Miscellaneous expenditures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 14,812 457 2,359 4,899 22,527 13% 25,514
Table 4-3 – MPF - Cost Estimate Summary
4.5. Discrete Programme Risk
The following table identifies the main discrete risks associated with this programme of work for the Hot Cell
facilities. The most likely value of contingency associated with these risks is £7.475m and is the additional
contingency included in the overall programme cost.
Expected cost
Probability Alternative
Risk Consequence Impact Max (kEuro) Probability Risk score Mitigation Estimating
range method
method
Asbestos survey as part of
Unexpected asbestos found in Project delay to completion and
Marginal 500 Possible 50% Low characterisation to plan work 250 500
building fabric additional contract costs
in
A dismantling facility must be
Decontamination techniques are
contructed in the building and/or Selection of proven techniques
not effective in reducing cell liner Major 13,000 Unlikely 10% Medium 1,300
a new transport container must for in-cell decontamination
dose rates
be provided
Maintain a range of
Decontamination of wastes (eg
Additional container costs and decontamination techniques
cell liners) is not as successful as Moderate 10,000 Possible 20% Medium 2,000
shipments to COVRA available for the corse of the
anticipated (90=> 80%)
project
Ensure detailed
Project team employed for an
Schedule delay Marginal 5,000 Likely 50% Medium characterisation work and 2,500 5,000
additional period (1 year)
planning are carried out
Volume of waste arisings is Ensure detailed
Additional container costs and
greater than estimated (additional Marginal 2,800 Possible 25% Low characterisation work and 700
shipments to COVRA
25%) planning are carried out
Basin liner has leaked and
Additional project cost Marginal 300 Possible 25% Low 75
contaminated the concrete
Inactive drains have been
Additional project cost Marginal 500 Unlikely 10% Low 50
contaminated in the past
It is not possible to release the This will mean a more complex
Maximise the decontamination
building uncontaminated to the and less efficient demolition Marginal 2,000 Possible 25% Medium 500
work by the internal team
demolition contractor process.
Discovery of exotic materials,
contaminated with radioactivity, Ensure detailed
Delays and additional waste costs -
that are difficult to dispose of, Marginal 2,000 Unlikely 5% Low characterisation work and 100
possibly additional processing
such as beryllium, organic tars and planning are carried out
oils, PCBs.
MAX 36,100 Contingency at P50 7,475
Alternative methodology 5,500
Table 4-4 - Discrete Risks for the HCL Programme
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Area (DWT)
5.1. Description of the facilities
The Decontamination and Waste Treatment (DWT) facility has been operational since 1962. The DWT complex
consists of four buildings: The Decontamination Building (Building 21), Water Treatment Building (Building 22),
Solid Waste Treatment Building (Building 25) and Waste Transfer Unit Building (Building 24). There is also a
liquid-tight floor on the north side of the Solid Waste Treatment Building. Also associated with the DWT is the
Waste Storage Facility (Building 26).
Operations involving radioactive substances, and, to a limited extent, nuclear fuels take place within the various
buildings of the DWT and on the liquid-tight storage floor outside, such as:
• handling and storage of radioactively contaminated material and objects;
• treatment and storage of radioactive contaminated liquid waste;
• treatment / storage of radioactive contaminated solid waste;
• storage of radioactive material and fuel-containing items (e.g. sources and containers);
• preparation for transport of radioactive and, where applicable, fuel-contaminated waste.
In this connection, 'storage' refers to the storage of material and components prior to carrying out treatment or
pending transport after treatment.
The work performed in DWT is generally carried out in a single building. However, some work may also be carried
out partly or entirely in one of the other buildings or on the liquid-tight floor. For example, decontamination of
contaminated objects takes place primarily in the Decontamination Building.
Occasionally, these activities can also take place in a cell of the Solid Waste Treatment Building or, in special
cases, on the liquid-tight floor. The facilities for cleaning pipes and tubes originating from the oil and gas industry
(the pipe cleaning facility) are also located in the Solid Waste Treatment Building.
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