Australian Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-2026 - Economic assessment of RD&E priorities
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Australian Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-2026 Economic assessment of RD&E priorities by Michael Clarke, AgEconPlus September 2022
Australian Pomegranate Industry
Strategic Plan 2021-2026
Economic assessment of RD&E priorities
by Michael Clarke, AgEconPlus
September 2022
AgriFutures Australia publication no. 22-124
AgriFutures Australia project no. PRJ-012772© 2022 AgriFutures Australia
All rights reserved.
ISBN 978-1-76053-320-5
ISSN 1440-6845
Australian Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-26: Economic assessment of RD&E priorities
Publication no. 22-124
Project no. PRJ-012772
The information contained in this publication is intended for general use to increase knowledge and discussion,
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Researcher contact details AgriFutures Australia contact details
Michael Clarke Building 007, Tooma Way
AgEconPlus Charles Sturt University
Locked Bag 588
clarke@ageconplus.com.au Wagga Wagga NSW 2650
0438 844 024
02 6923 6900
info@agrifutures.com.au
www.agrifutures.com.au
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AgriFutures Australia is the trading name for Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC),
a statutory authority of the Australian Government established by the Primary Industries Research and
Development Act 1989.
Research investments made or managed by AgriFutures Australia, and publications and communication
materials pertaining to those investments, are funded by industry levy payers and/or the Australian Government.
iiForeword
Small-scale commercial production of pomegranates in Australia began in the early 2000s. However,
the industry was recently identified as a key emerging rural industry with high growth potential,
currently having a gross value of production of $10.4 million. Against this backdrop, the Australian
Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-2026 (Strategic Plan) was released in November 2021 and
was a crucial first step to better understand the potential of the industry, production opportunities, and
research priorities to help it grow.
A key part of the Strategic Plan is the research, development and extension (RD&E) priorities over a
five-year time horizon. To supplement the plan, industry identified the need for an economic analysis
of the identified priorities to provide insights on the pecuniary benefit and payback of investment in
the proposed activities. This is critical to ensuring industry targets those investments that will have the
biggest impact in terms of industry growth and adoption of best practice production systems.
This document delivers on that need. The economic assessment found that while all activities showed
a positive return on investment, the top three most impactful RD&E activities to promote industry
growth and development are:
1. Developing a best practice guide for growing pomegranates in Australia
2. Completing agronomic research to improve pomegranate production
3. Building the capacity of the pomegranate industry.
This analysis will be used by industry, AgriFutures Australia and investors to better understand the
potential impact of RD&E investments and help prioritise research activities.
This report has been produced as part of AgriFutures Australia’s Emerging Industries Program, which
focuses on new industries with high growth potential. Emerging animal and plant industries play an
important role in the Australian agricultural landscape. They contribute to the national economy and
are key to meeting changing global food demands.
Michael Beer
General Manager, Business Development
AgriFutures Australia
iiiContents
Foreword.................................................................................................................................. iii
Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... iv
Assessment purpose ................................................................................................................. 1
Approach .................................................................................................................................. 1
Key data used in the analysis .................................................................................................. 2
RD&E project concepts ........................................................................................................... 3
Best practice guide for growing pomegranates in Australia................................................ 3
Agronomic research to improve pomegranate production .................................................. 4
National pomegranate variety trials..................................................................................... 5
Market research and market development plan ................................................................... 6
Biosecurity risk assessment and treatment options ............................................................. 7
Product specifications for Australian pomegranate ............................................................. 8
Technology adoption program ............................................................................................ 9
Pomegranate industry capacity building............................................................................ 10
Economic assessment snapshot ............................................................................................. 11
References ............................................................................................................................... 12
Glossary of economic terms .................................................................................................. 13
Abbreviations
APA Australian Pomegranate Association
CBA cost-benefit analysis
CRRDC Council of Rural Research and Development Corporations
GVP gross value of production
IPM integrated pest management
PV present value
RD&E research, development and extension
ivAssessment purpose
The purpose of this economic analysis was to prioritise a small number of pomegranate research,
development and extension (RD&E) project concepts for potential investment. Potential project
concepts were prepared after reviewing the Australian Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-
2026.
A small number of ranked RD&E project concepts will be helpful for a prospective investor. A
targeted program will provide investors with confidence that progress can be made and there is not an
insurmountable list of needs associated with the Australian pomegranate industry.
Approach
The economic analysis was completed through six major tasks:
1. Review of the draft Australian Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-2026 with the
Australian Pomegranate Association (APA) Executive Officer to identify priority actions for
analysis. The review identified five priority actions documented in the draft Strategic Plan,
plus the need to drive technology adoption and industry capacity building. Post review of the
draft analysis framework, an eighth priority was added to the analysis – agronomic research to
improve pomegranate production. Industry advocacy activities are not considered RD&E
projects; therefore, this priority action has been excluded from the analysis.
2. Development and costing of RD&E project concepts using descriptions provided in the draft
Strategic Plan. The analyst’s experience completing and assessing RD&E projects for Hort
Innovation was used to prepare indicative project costings.
3. Identification of possible impacts (benefits) associated with project concepts, especially
impacts on the Australian pomegranate industry. Impacts focused on possible changes in
pomegranate production value and volume as a result of project investment, the period
required for investment (single or multi-year project) and the share of industry likely to make
use of the relevant RD&E output.
4. Review of the analysis framework with the APA Executive to ensure appropriate and accurate
description of projects concepts and their potential impacts. A draft was provided to APA on
7 September 2021.
5. Completion of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to rank project concepts. CBAs were completed
using the Council of Rural Research and Development Corporation Economic Evaluation
Guidelines (CRRDC 2018). Consistent with the guidelines, analyses were completed using a
5% discount rate and a 30-year analysis period that commenced one year after final project
investment. A glossary of economic terms used in the analysis is included at the end of this
report.
6. Documentation of CBA results, presentation of results to the APA and finalisation of the
analysis following consideration of APA feedback. The executive summary of the draft
Strategic Plan was then revised to incorporate project concept descriptions and final CBA
results.
1Key data used in the analysis
Key data used to complete the economic assessment was sourced from AgriFutures Australia research
commissioned to estimate the gross value of production (GVP) for a set of emerging industries
including pomegranate (AgriFutures Australia, 2022) and a literature review prepared as part of the
draft Strategic Plan (Baum and Cay, 2021), as well as other reports and publications (Coriolis 2017;
Nott et al., 2019; Russell 2019). Relevant data included:
• Australian pomegranate growers: 20 to 50 enterprises
• Mature pomegranate trees: 275,000 trees
• Yield: 18.75 kg/tree at full maturity
• Farmgate price of pomegranate: $2/kg ($2,000/tonne)
• Profit at farmgate: 15% of sale price (AgEconPlus assumption)
• Australian pomegranate production: 5,200 tonnes/year (275,000 trees × 18.75 kg/tree)
• Estimated pomegranate GVP in 2021: $10.4 million (5,200 tonnes × $2,000/tonne)
2RD&E project concepts
Best practice guide for growing pomegranates in Australia
Project description
Pomegranate growing guides produced overseas are not relevant to Australian conditions. This project
requires the consolidation of existing industry knowledge from the relevant literature and Australian
pomegranate grower and advisor experience into a best practice guide for producing pomegranates in
Australia. A ‘living’ document would be produced and the guide would be updated as new
information and research is made available.
Chapters in the growing guide would address varieties and their suitability by region, soil
characterisation, tree establishment, fertiliser/nutrition, micronutrients, irrigation/water use efficiency
(mulch), climate (frosts, sunburn), pests (thrips), diseases (dieback, soil borne disease, phytophthora,
trunk disease, fruit rot disease), integrated pest management, agrichemical management, minor use
permits, cropping patterns (three years to fruit, peak production in years five and six), tree architecture/
pruning/planting densities, fruit quality, and holistic farm management.
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $250,000 incurred in a single year.
Possible project impacts
The possible impacts stemming from this project are more productive orchards (higher and more
consistent yields), reduced growing costs (efficient use of inputs), and a subsequent increase in the
profitability of pomegranate-growing enterprises in Australia.
The first edition of the guide would be available to growers one year after project completion.
It is assumed that producers linked to 80% of Australian pomegranate production would make use of
the best practice growing guide. The balance of production (20%) is grown under semi-commercial
conditions where there is less interest in maximising profit from production.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 1 and a benefit-cost ratio of 4.34 has been generated, i.e., for
every dollar invested, a return of $4.34 has been estimated.
Table 1. CBA for investment in a best practice guide for growing pomegranates in Australia
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 0.98
Present value of costs ($m) 0.23
Net present value ($m) 0.76
Benefit-cost ratio 4.34
Internal rate of return (%) 19.1
Modified internal rate of return (%) 9.4
3Agronomic research to improve pomegranate production
Project description
There are major gaps in agronomic knowledge in relation to growing pomegranates in Australia. Gaps
exist in relation to nutrition, pest and disease management, canopy management, planting density, and
irrigation. This project would support a trial at a single location, with generalised information
generated that would be broadly applicable to other pomegranate-growing regions.
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $150,000 every year for three years.
Possible project impacts
The possible impacts stemming from this project are more productive orchards (higher and more
consistent yields), reduced growing costs (efficient use of inputs), and a subsequent increase in the
profitability of pomegranate-growing enterprises in Australia.
Trial results would be available to growers four years after project commencement.
It is assumed that producers linked to 80% of Australian pomegranate production would make use of
research outputs. The balance of production (20%) is grown under semi-commercial conditions where
there is less interest in maximising profit from production.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 2 and a benefit-cost ratio of 3.85 has been estimated.
Table 2. CBA for investment in agronomic research to improve pomegranate production.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 1.50
Present value of costs ($m) 0.39
Net present value ($m) 1.11
Benefit-cost ratio 3.85
Internal rate of return (%) 20.1
Modified internal rate of return (%) 9.0
4National pomegranate variety trials
Project description
The Australian pomegranate industry currently lacks accurate, independent information on the
performance of existing varieties and the potential of new varieties. This project would enable
national variety trials to review the performance of varieties under different Australian growing
conditions.
Trials would include both imported and locally established pomegranate varieties. Trials might
address soil types, nutrition responses, irrigation schedules, tree training and pruning techniques. One
aim of the trial program might be to identify early and late-season varieties, to widen the Australian
fresh pomegranate supply window.
Ideally, trials would be completed in each of southern Queensland (St George), southern NSW
(Lachlan and Murrumbidgee valleys), northern Victoria (Shepparton), South Australia (Adelaide
region, Murray Mallee, Clare Valley, and the South East) and Western Australia (near Carnarvon and
south of Perth).
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $350,000 per year for eight years.
Possible project impacts
The possible impacts stemming from this project are superior pomegranate varieties with higher and
more consistent yield, and varieties with lower production costs (e.g., new disease resistant traits). A
successful project would result in a substantial increase in the profitability of pomegranate-growing
enterprises in Australia.
New varieties would be available to growers 10 years after project commencement (eight years of
research plus two years for nursery industry production of new trees).
It is assumed that producers linked to 80% of new and replacement orchards would consider national
variety trial results prior to planting.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 3 and a benefit-cost ratio of 1.44 has been estimated.
Table 3. CBA for investment in national pomegranate variety trials.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 3.09
Present value of costs ($m) 2.15
Net present value ($m) 0.94
Benefit-cost ratio 1.44
Internal rate of return (%) 7.6
Modified internal rate of return (%) 5.9
5Market research and market development plan
Project description
The Australian pomegranate industry lacks information on market potential and a plan to best
capitalise on market opportunity. This project would produce market research to better understand
consumer profiles, consumer demands and different end-use opportunities for Australian
pomegranates.
The market research would then be used to formulate a market development plan. The plan might
include strategies to address the perception that pomegranates are fussy/messy to deal with, and how
to capitalise on the fruit’s health and nutritional attributes. Growth opportunities for frozen product
could also be explored.
The project concept does not include new research to understand pomegranate bioactive components,
which is likely to be a longer-term and more costly project. The project would not include expenditure
on marketing campaigns.
Project cost
Estimated cost for market research and a market development plan: $120,000 incurred in a single year.
Possible project impacts
The possible impact stemming from this project is the sale of Australian pomegranates at a higher
average price.
The market development plan would be available to growers, processors and other supply chain
partners one year after project commencement.
It is assumed that 65% of Australian pomegranate production would be marketed after industry
consideration of the market development plan. The balance of production (35%) is already channelled
into appropriate, high-priced markets.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 4 and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.45 has been estimated.
Table 4. CBA for investment in market research and a market development plan.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 0.27
Present value of costs ($m) 0.11
Net present value ($m) 0.16
Benefit-cost ratio 2.45
Internal rate of return (%) 12.5
Modified internal rate of return (%) 7.6
6Biosecurity risk assessment and treatment options
Project description
Profitable production of pomegranates in Australia may be disrupted by the spread of an endemic pest
or disease, or the introduction of an exotic species. National and international biosecurity preparedness
is essential. Endemic pests of concern include Queensland fruit fly and Mediterranean fruit fly. Exotic
species include various arthropods and bacterial blight, and may include the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa
(depending on this species’ host range).
This project would produce a risk assessment of key threats and further develop biosecurity measures
to ensure the integrity and viability of the Australian pomegranate industry. Research may address
Xylella fastidiosa and effective fruit fly treatment options for use on pomegranates.
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $180,000 incurred over two years. A risk assessment would be completed in
the first year, and priority pest and disease treatment options would be developed in the second year.
Possible project impacts
The possible impact stemming from this project is avoided catastrophic loss of Australian
pomegranate production from better control of a biosecurity risk, such as an exotic pest or disease
incursion and establishment.
The biosecurity risk assessment and key treatment options would be available for industry decision-
making three years after project commencement.
It is assumed that project investment would reduce the risk of a catastrophic biosecurity event in the
Australian pomegranate industry from 5% to 3% per year.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 5 and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.56 has been estimated.
Table 5. CBA for investment in a biosecurity risk assessment and treatment options.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 0.41
Present value of costs ($m) 0.16
Net present value ($m) 0.25
Benefit-cost ratio 2.56
Internal rate of return (%) 15.8
Modified internal rate of return (%) 7.8
7Product specifications for Australian pomegranate
Project description
The Australian pomegranate industry believes consumers are after a consistent product, and that
failure to set clear industry standards will impact consumer purchasing behaviour and satisfaction
with Australian pomegranates.
This project would better define national product quality and size specifications, and deliver product
quality criteria in the form of a specification sheet. The specification sheet would be made available to
all parts of the supply chain. Nationally agreed product specifications would be prepared for both the
domestic and export markets.
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $80,000 incurred in a single year.
Possible project impacts
The possible impact stemming from this project is increased sales of Australian pomegranates at a
higher average price.
Pomegranate product specifications would be available to industry and retailers one year after project
commencement.
It is assumed that, when complete, product specifications would be applied to 80% of Australian
production, with lower-grade fruit directed to processing (e.g., blended juice).
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 6 and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.21 has been estimated.
Table 6. CBA for investment in product specifications for Australian pomegranate.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 0.16
Present value of costs ($m) 0.07
Net present value ($m) 0.09
Benefit-cost ratio 2.21
Internal rate of return (%) 10.8
Modified internal rate of return (%) 7.3
8Technology adoption program
Project description
This project would focus on encouraging the uptake of technologies that would enable the Australian
pomegranate industry to grow, process and deliver its fruit in a more cost-effective (profitable) way.
Technologies and resources that would be extended to the industry include the outputs of
pomegranate research (e.g., best practice growing guide) and information on relevant developments in
other industries (e.g., relating to spraying, surveillance, mechanical harvesting, fruit packing).
The project would not include investigation of collective processing and packaging facilities, which
constitutes a separate and stand-alone project. However, the project would include development of
communications activities to make producers aware of new knowledge, resources and opportunities.
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $90,000 per year for a five-year program coinciding with the current Strategic
Plan period (2021-2026). This investment might fund communications resources (e.g., newsletter,
web page), a part-time Industry Development Officer and/or industry field days.
Possible project impacts
The possible impact stemming from this project is producer adoption of technologies that enable
reduced production costs and price improvement.
Technology adoption program outputs would be available to growers, processors and supply chain
partners in the same year as project commencement.
It is assumed that a technology adoption program would affect producers linked to 80% of Australian
pomegranate production.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 7 and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.96 has been estimated.
Table 7. CBA for investment in a technology adoption program.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 1.10
Present value of costs ($m) 0.37
Net present value ($m) 0.73
Benefit-cost ratio 2.96
Internal rate of return (%) 24.6
Modified internal rate of return (%) 10.1
9Pomegranate industry capacity building
Project description
This project would support the Australian pomegranate industry by instilling new skills in leadership,
governance, planning and pomegranate production in industry participants.
The project would fund a single training course each year for five years. An Australian Pomegranate
Association executive member might be funded to complete a company director’s training course, or
growers, advisors and agronomists might be afforded irrigation management training opportunities.
Project cost
Estimated project cost: $10,000 per annum for a five-year program coinciding with the current
Strategic Plan period (2021-2026).
Possible project impacts
The possible impacts stemming from this project are improved grower productivity and profitability,
and improved management of pomegranate industry activities and funds by the APA.
It is assumed that with the potential addition of research projects, the APA will be responsible for
managing a budget of approximately $20,000 per annum.
CBA result
CBA results are summarised in Table 8 and a benefit-cost ratio of 3.52 has been estimated.
Table 8. CBA for investment in pomegranate industry capacity building.
Investment criteria Estimate (5% discount rate, 30 years)
Present value of benefits ($m) 0.14
Present value of costs ($m) 0.04
Net present value ($m) 0.10
Benefit-cost ratio 3.52
Internal rate of return (%) 31.8
Modified internal rate of return (%) 11.7
10Economic assessment snapshot
A summary of the economic assessment results is included in Table 9. All eight project concepts
investigated showed a positive return on investment. The highest return on investment was generated
by the best practice guide, agronomic research, and industry capacity building.
Table 9. Economic assessment snapshot of priority project concepts
Project concept Benefit-cost ratio
Best practice guide to growing pomegranates in Australia 4.3
Consolidation of existing Australian industry knowledge. A ‘living’ document would be
produced and updated as new information and research is made available.
Agronomic research to improve pomegranate production 3.9
There are major gaps in agronomic knowledge in relation to growing pomegranates in
Australia. This project would address nutrition, pests, diseases, canopy management,
planting density and irrigation.
National pomegranate variety trials 1.4
Accurate and independent information on the performance of existing varieties and new
varieties under Australian conditions is needed. Trials could also be used to identify
early or late-season varieties.
Market research and market development plan 2.5
Market research is needed to understand consumer profiles, demand and end-use
opportunities. Market research would be used to formulate a market development plan.
Biosecurity risk assessment and treatment options 2.6
This project would produce a risk assessment of key threats and further develop
biosecurity measures. Research may address Xylella fastidiosa and effective fruit fly
treatment options for pomegranates.
Product specifications for Australian pomegranate 2.2
Consumers require a consistent product. National product standards would better
define quality and size requirements, and assist the supply chain with delivering what
consumers require.
Technology adoption program 3.0
This project would investment in extension to grow the profitability and size of the
industry. Technologies may be sourced via new AgriFutures Australia research or from
adaptation of developments in other industries.
Pomegranate industry capacity building 3.5
This project would support the industry through instilling new skills in leadership,
governance, planning and pomegranate production in industry participants.
11References
Baum, A. and Cay, B. (2021). Australia Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-2026.
AgriFutures Australia. https://www.agrifutures.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/21-105.pdf
Coriolis. (2017). New opportunities in new and emerging agricultural industries in Australia.
AgriFutures Australia. https://www.agrifutures.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Coriolis-
Scan_new-and-emerging-industries.pdf
Council of Rural Research and Development Corporations (2018). Cross-RDC Impact Assessment
Program: Guidelines. Council of Rural Research and Development Corporations.
http://www.ruralrdc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/201804_RDC-IA-Guidelines-V.2.pdf
AgriFutures Australia. (2022). Valuing AgriFutures Australia’s emerging industries. AgriFutures
Australia. https://agrifutures.com.au/product/valuing-agrifutures-australias-emerging-industries/
Nott, B., Farquharson, R., and Griffith, G. (2019). Information as a Key Component of Value Chains:
The Case of the Australian Pomegranate Industry. Australasian Agribusiness Perspectives 2019,
Volume 22, Paper 4.
Russell, M. (2019). Great Prices for the Start of the Australian Pomegranate Season. Australian Tree
Crop. https://www.treecrop.com.au/news/great-prices-start-australian-pomegranate-season/
12Glossary of economic terms
Cost-benefit analysis: A conceptual framework for the economic evaluation of projects and
programs in the public sector. It differs from a financial appraisal or evaluation in that it considers all
gains (benefits) and losses (costs), regardless of to whom they accrue.
Benefit-cost ratio: The ratio of the present value of investment benefits to the present value of
investment costs.
Discounting: The process of relating the costs and benefits of an investment to a base year using a
stated discount rate.
Internal rate of return: The discount rate at which an investment has a net present value of zero, i.e.,
where present value of benefits equals present value of costs.
Investment criteria: Measures of the economic worth of an investment, such as net present value,
benefit-cost ratio and internal rate of return.
Modified internal rate of return: The internal rate of return of an investment that is modified so that
the cash inflows from an investment are re-invested at the rate of the cost of capital (the re-investment
rate).
Net present value: The discounted value of the benefits of an investment less the discounted value of
the costs, i.e., present value of benefits minus present value of costs.
Present value of benefits: The discounted value of benefits.
Present value of costs: The discounted value of investment costs.
13Australian Pomegranate Industry Strategic Plan 2021-2026 Economic assessment of RD&E priorities by Michael Clarke, AgEconPlus September 2022 AgriFutures Australia publication no. 22-124 AgriFutures Australia project no. PRJ-012772 ISBN: 978-1-76053-320-5 AgriFutures Australia Building 007 Tooma Way Charles Sturt University Locked Bag 588 Wagga Wagga NSW 2650 02 6923 6900 info@agrifutures.com.au @AgriFuturesAU agrifutures.com.au AgriFutures Australia is the trading name for Rural Industries Research & Development Corporation. AgriFutures is a trade mark owned by Rural Industries Research & Development Corporation.
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