Aspirations, Ambitions, and Approaches - Observer Research ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Aspirations, Ambitions, and Approaches
India at 75
Aspirations,
Ambitions, and
Approaches © 2022 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF.
Attribution: Aspirations, Ambitions, and Approaches, January 2022, Observer Research Foundation.
Observer Research Foundation
20 Rouse Avenue, Institutional Area
New Delhi 110002
India
contactus@orfonline.org
www.orfonline.org
ORF provides non-partisan, independent analyses and inputs on matters of security, strategy,
economy, development, energy and global governance to diverse decision-makers (governments,
business communities, academia, and civil society). ORF’s mandate is to conduct in-depth research,
provide inclusive platforms, and invest in tomorrow’s thought leaders today.
EDITOR’S NOTE
There is no percentage in stating the
obvious, yet it must be reiterated: The
international community needs new
ideas, anchors and torchbearers to
reinvigorate globalisation and strengthen
global co-operation.
Towards this end, only asinine
INDIA @ 75 assessments of a future world order
as the century turns 20 would ignore
the crucial role of India in shaping this
ETHIC, decade, and determining the trajectory
of the decades to follow. Our endeavour
ECONOMY with this series of essays is to capture the
AND
ideas and ethics driving contemporary
Indian diplomacy; examine the methods
EXEMPLAR and contours of India’s engagement with
the world; and, offer a prognosis of India’s
future as a leading power.
SAMIR SARAN Under the rubric of ‘India@75:
Aspirations, Ambitions, and Approaches’,
ORF has curated 18 essays written
I
by some of the world’s finest minds,
f a weary international community— learn to live with the virus, as it shows had been evident. Generational and representing former heads of state and
reeling from unanticipated signs of transitioning to become endemic. geographical shifts in the balance of government, members of parliament,
challenges and unprecedented A “new normal” where COVID-19 does power, rapid advances in technology-led heads of international institutions,
disruptions in the early 21st not cripple communities, countries and innovations, and existential global risks leaders from business, and experts from
century—was looking forward to a whole continents is the future, even as like climate change have all strained academia and media. Between them, they
stabilising start to the 2020s, its hopes vaccine inequity makes the possibility of the capacity of prevailing international have studied India’s evolving relationship
were short-lived. COVID-19 continues more lethal variants imminent. norms and institutions. These had left with new geographies, its engagement
to weave its way through borders and them looking wilted, if not withered. Now, with new domains of global governance,
continents, felling victims and flummoxing But even before COVID-19 forced us to these norms and institutions have all but and the human imperative that must
governments. Two years down the line, radically rethink and redo the way we shattered from the strain of the pandemic. define India’s rise.
it is increasingly clear that we have to live our very lives, a certain tiredness
4 5
Few predict the path ahead will be how drastically—and rapidly—the mental
easy for India, or that latent and legacy maps of the world are morphing.
challenges confronting this nation can
be ignored. Indeed, most assessments There is a common thread that binds
in this volume suggest disquiet and these analyses: A keen interest in
uncertainty. Amrita Narlikar begins India’s evolving relationship with the
her essay with a cautionary note on US and China. These three nations will,
world affairs. “Multilateralism is facing after all, rank among the largest three
a crisis of unprecedented proportions,” economies by the middle of this century.
she writes, “It manifests itself in a The turbulent Twenties will see the
fundamental questioning of the very value dynamics of this power triangle assume
of multilateralism within countries and centre stage. The US sees India as a
deadlocks in negotiations in multilateral partner in its endeavour to neutralise an
organisations.” But this global crisis, she increasingly aggressive and expansionist
argues, also begets opportunities for China. Jane Holl Lute argues that India
India. C. Raja Mohan agrees and asserts “has understood China’s principal
that this period of churn offers India the strategic aim to replace the United States
opportunity to shed the temptation to act as the most consequential security
alone and actively build new coalitions power in Asia”. While India’s choices will
and consensus with other powers. But undoubtedly implicate the balance of
this will depend, he argues, on how quickly power between the US and China, India
India can restructure its traditional will most likely chart its own course in
worldview. old geographies acquires new salience. But shaping new geographies will also international affairs.
And this is where the new external require India to manage certain old
As Harsh V Pant writes in his essay, this partnerships are actively taking shape. relationships. The Indo-Pacific should ORF Distinguished Fellow Rajeswari
restructuring is already underway, as Central among these is the dynamically not be seen in isolation—its markets and Pillai Rajagopalan highlights India’s
“India’s past diffidence in making certain evolving Indo-Pacific construct which, communities are also rapidly integrating behaviour in international negotiations
foreign policy choices is rapidly giving as Premesha Saha posits, will weave with the Eurasian supercontinent. Steven on outer space as a primary example.
way to greater readiness to acknowledge communities, markets and states from Blockmans laments that the India-EU In every significant process—from
the need for a radical shift in thinking the East Pacific to East Africa into one relationship has underperformed given the UN GGE to the EU CoC—India has
about internal capability enhancement by strategic geography. How India adapts its potential to anchor democratic and argued for greater multilateralism while
leveraging external partnerships.” its “economic structure” to these realities rules-based governance in greater actively discouraging behaviour that is
and implements its “commitment to Eurasia. Solomon Passy and Angel “inherently destabilising”. I would add
As the world’s centre of gravity shifts prevent hegemony in the oceans”, argues Apostolov boldly make the case for India’s engagement on cyber governance,
from the Atlantic system, India’s Kwame Owino, will determine its ability to exploring the possibility of a dialogue particularly on emerging technologies, to
engagement with both emerging and lead these new regions. between NATO and India, indicating just this list. Although technological systems
6 7
are rapidly unravelling, India has sought only possible by following through on the prosperity and peace”. Indeed, each essay challenges and allow us a moment to
to frame rules for its digital economy that SDG agenda. All of this, according to Adil has this very sentiment at its core—the learn from the journey so far. The world
serve both its development interests and Zainulbhai, will be powered by India’s importance of India’s rise for its own in the 2020s demands more from us.
preserve interdependence. As Trisha Ray already immense digital infrastructure, people, its region, and indeed as a model Indians must be ready to deliver.
writes, “New Delhi must prepare to shape, innovation capabilities and skilled for the world in this century.
rather than be shaped, by these shifting workforce as it leverages the Fourth
geopolitical winds.” Others remind us that Industrial Revolution to its advantage. We hope these essays will provide an
Samir Saran
much work still needs to be done. Renato “India’s green transformation,” asserts intellectual stimulus to debates and
Flores urges India to learn lessons from Mihir Sharma, “will have to be led by the discussions that will undoubtedly President of the Observer Research
its RCEP withdrawal, shed traditional decisions of its people and by the energy contribute to shaping our collective Foundation.
hesitations, and emerge as a leading of its private sector.” future, examine our contemporary
advocate for multilateral trade.
It is these twin imperatives—achieving
India’s most significant contribution to sustainable development and the climate
the global commons will be providing change agenda—that make India a very
sustainable livelihoods to its own people, different type of ‘rising power’. Its path
and its battle against climate change. to prominence will not be defined by
Indeed, Oommen Kurian & Shoba Suri military dominance or coercive economic
begin their analysis with the proposition capabilities. Instead, India’s rise will be
that success or failure in implementing characterised by its ability to provide
the global SDG agenda is dependent solutions, technologies and finance to
almost wholly on India achieving its own emerging communities in urgent need
targets. India already produces nearly of new models of economic growth and
half of all global vaccines and is a leading social mobility. It is this ‘new economic
voice on IPR reform, as Khor Swee diplomacy’, Navdeep Suri believes, that
Kheng & K. Srinath Reddy note, making it will define India’s foreign policy priorities
essential for global health security. in the decade ahead.
India will also be tasked with achieving Underwriting India’s foreign policy will be
livelihood goals for itself and the world its civilisational identity as a democratic,
in a carbon-constrained world, which is open and plural society. Arguably the
why Jayant Sinha argues that India can most abstract of all its foreign policy
no longer rely on the ‘farm to industry’ tools, India’s own ability to retain social
model of development. Instead, Nilanjan cohesion while providing economic
Ghosh asserts that India’s own goal growth and development will, as Prime
of becoming a US$10 trillion economy, Minister Stephen Harper observes, help
which is both equitable and inclusive, is “lead the world as a whole to greater
8 9
30 days for payment. Through e-NAM,
he sells through direct purchase orders
and saves on commission and hamali
charges. Furthermore, he gets the
payment within minutes online.
Bhanu, along with his classmates, and
social media student friends from Assam,
designed a rooftop rainwater harvesting
structure for his locality in Beed,
Maharashtra. He posted his success
INDIA’S LEAP:
story via a live video on the National Atal
Innovation Challenge and got selected
EMBRACING
INDIA’S LEAP: IR 4.0 TO
EMBRACING
within a day. He now gets funding to scale
this idea and work with experts in Atal
BUILDING FOR THE
IR 4.0 TO BUILDING FOR
Incubation Centres.
WORLD
THE WORLD
Reena wants to venture into robotics and
artificial intelligence. Through Swayam
and NPTEL offerings, she curated her
personalised course toolkit (rather than
a packaged course) to learn what was
ADIL ZAINULBHAI interesting with live demo sessions. Along
with the certification, she managed to
interact with experts and meet peers in
Envision this: 5 years from now: Vikas requests, processes and gets her cohort with like-minded ideas. She is
his MBA loan approval in less than 10 now ready to tinker and build for India!
Saravanan nods with a smile when the Anurag who has just completed his minutes on his phone.
payment soundbox tells him the exact undergraduate degree intends to help More than 70% of Ravi’s crops were
transaction amount in Tamil. He sells his father in the farms near Bhagalpur. Vidyasagar, a resident of Balkonda destroyed due to untimely rains in
toys and chocolates outside a school in Using digital advisory applications Mandal, has been selling his produce Nalanda. He logs onto his mobile app and
Tiruchirapalli. (for planning and pre-planting—IMD through commission agents at applies for crop insurance. Through geo-
forecasts, soil health), Internet of Things Nizamabad market yard for 20 years. tagged data and satellite imaging, his
Dhabalesh Majhi raps out of a small (IoT) monitoring devices (in-season care) He used to stay back in the market yard claims are processed within a day and
house in Kalahandi District in Odisha, and digital marketplaces, he helps raise till weighment completion and wait 20- funds are transferred into his account.
using his phone to reach out to lakhs of farm revenues—all this using an app via
his followers. open platform and data sharing.
10 11
I
ndia has more than 750 million Industrial Revolution Wave. This marked and Mobile Number), INR 3.8 lakh force multiplier when combined
internet users today and the start of a change in India’s perception crore Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) with Aadhaar and DBT to increase
innumerable small success stories of “Electronification and Information annually to beneficiaries, and 9.3 transparency, efficiency, and
that affect lives—from the kirana Technology". billion e-KYC transactions. productivity of government delivery.
store, which has now widened its audience
to outside its street, to textile weavers Over the last decade, cyber-computing • CoWIN: To tackle COVID-19, India’s • E-Shram: This is designed as a
who sell through social media platforms. improvements have steadily narrowed open source, modular real-time National Database of Unorganised
India is at the cusp of disruptive digital the gap between the real and digital vaccine monitoring platform has Workers, which is the largest in
change, one that is already creating the worlds accelerating the onset of clocked more than 1.5 billion vaccine the world. It currently has over
next large businesses, democratising Industrial Revolution 4.0 as we know it.
ii
doses and, with open Application 21.5 crore unique registrations
ideas and driving inclusion at a scale India has been a major disruptor in this Programming Interfaces (APIs), in less than six months, seeded
never seen before. space taking giant strides in implementing is becoming a key Indian export with Aadhaar along with details of
unique, large-scale projects powered by for global healthcare during the occupation, skills and educational
Today, India is powered by consumption public digital infrastructure. pandemic. qualifications, amongst others.
by a burgeoning middle class (70% of total This unlocks huge opportunities for
spending) supported by rising disposable India’s Century - Digital Innovation • National Digital Health Mission the Government to extend suitably
incomes and affordable internet being India’s driving force Stack: This aims to create a unified tailored social security schemes,
penetration (marked by Jio’s entry into the network (remote, decentralised, targeted skilling initiatives to
telecom space in 2016) across rural and • Unified Payments Interface (UPI): coherent) to match people with increase employability and bring
urban areas. Post liberalisation, India has India’s real-time mobile payments system, resources across public and private the large informal workforce into
moved from being the business process which is universally interoperable, low- sector services. This will cut costs, the digital fold. With a unique UAN
outsourcing hub of the ’90s and 2000s— cost (replaces PoS), and mobile-first save time, and increase the ability number, we will gain unprecedented
with call centres and software testing— has seen incredible growth, clocking to monitor health compliance for insight into movement of workers,
to being at the frontier of innovation and more than 4.5 billion transactions worth millions of Indians. With the right and the demand-supply market
cutting-edge technologies at a population INR 8.26 lakh crores in just December security infrastructure in place, it marked against skills across varied
scale. 2021. In 18 months, we have seen more can help in timely interventions to geographies of India.
transactions per month in UPI than we check the course of a pandemic or
During the 1990s, India saw a boom in have had in 40 years on credit and debit in the long term for the nation at • eNational Agriculture Market: With
the services sector —predominantly in
i
cards! large. more than 2.1 lakh traders, 1 lakh+
Information Technology (IT), IT Enabled commission agents, 1000 mandis
Services (ITeS), and financial services— • Aadhaar: The largest identity • Jan Dhan Yojana: With more than and 17 million+ farmers, this pan
with the IT industry growing from US$150 programme in the world with 1.29 44.3 crore beneficiaries banked, India electronic trading portal aims
million in 1991 to more than US$5.7 billion billion individuals, has moved from the scheme has enabled banking to create a unified national market
in 2000, which, for the first time, created being an identity marker to powering penetration, financial services for agricultural commodities. More
a new set of Indian-made companies, India’s Digital Stack with 410 million usage and, more importantly, importantly, it aims to arm small
like Infosys, Wipro, and TCS, that have Jan Dhan Accounts (part of the JAM financial inclusion for a variety of farmers with the power of “choice”
become world beaters riding the 3rd trinity of Jan Dhan accounts, Aadhar, demographics. This has been a true and “information”, increasing their
12 13
bargaining power across India. are modular with plug and play, which According to MeitYv, India’s public and scale issues and democratises technology
With Jan Dhan (banking penetration, essentially seek to democratise and private digital offerings are on their way usage. Indian start-ups have already
payments), and a unified logistics decentralise technology usage. India has to unlocking more than US$1 trillion started exporting software extensively
interface platform (transport), this been building ‘open digital platforms’, in digital value by 2025. India today is as well (a change from only providing IT
is in line to be a true game-changer which are tremendous force multipliers building cutting edge technology for the services two decades ago); for example,
in the coming decade. (Platformisation). This is critical and world with offerings ranging from social more than 17 million developers and
unique in being affordable, interoperable, commerce, Software as a Service (SaaS), 98% of fortune 500 companies use the
• Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT): API-driven (and hence scalable), mobile- payments, ed-tech and much more. ‘Postman API Platform’ today.
Focussing on maximum governance first in vernacular languages, and allows
through technology, DBT has India’s entrepreneurs to build on the rails Seizing the Digital Opportunity Future is Digital
transformed the Government of these platforms to innovate and solve
delivery system over the past eight problems at scale and for trust. India’s emerging digital ecosystems Digital forces have started to re-define
years with over 311 schemes, supported by robust innovation in how we connect and transactix with
spanning 54 ministries, and India’s start-up landscape has benefited start-ups and favourable demographic each other and institutions, it has
reaching more than 900 million immensely with Aadhaar, UPI, and Jan dividendvi (with an increase in working enabled organisations to automate
citizens.iii Along with the JAM trinity, Dhan (financial inclusion) coming in. The age population till 2041 and 3.6 million routine tasks to enhance productivity,
it has increased the productivity of boom in the past 5-6 years has been STEM graduates annually) give us a and it has brought about data-driven
Government spending with leakages phenomenal. Venture Capital investment unique opportunity to lead in the decades decision-making for organisations and
coming down by more than 90%. surpassed all records in 2021, with more to come. governments. Interaction of these forces
than US $17 billion in funding and 840+ will carve out new digital ecosystems in
• API Setu: To facilitate an open API deals. India is home to 81 unicorns with a This wave of digital growth would help core the times to come. India stands to gain
policy, and build interoperable total valuation of US $275 billion (as on 29 digital sectors and ones with immense due to its cutting-edge tech stack.
digital platforms for seamless December 2021)iv, 44 of which were born growth potential (newly digitising
government delivery, this platform in 2021 itself. logistics, educationvii, healthcare, India’s Tech Stack backed by a sound
by the Ministry of Electronics and agriculture) to exponentially increase foundation (UPI, Aadhaar, open-source
Information Technology (MeitY) potential by 2025—financial services architecture with strong data security
“
currently helps provide information (170X) agriculture (70X), education (30X), measures), digital reach (> 1 billion
from more than 300 central and Government Emarketplace by 25X. internet users, local language content),
state government departments by can propel India to be the digital factory
accessing 973 different data points India is already on its way to be the of the world (software innovation, data
including Driver’s License, vehicle India is home to software development engine of the analytics).
registration, PAN, e-KYC, to name a world. This is evident in the fact that it is
few.
81 unicorns with a the fastest growing country in terms of Digital enablement will drive productivity
total valuation of developers contributing on open source , viii
from MSMEsx to big companies, redefine
What is worth noting here is that all
such large public digital solutions are
US$275.5 billion with the number projected to grow to
10 million by 2023. Open-source software
impact in
(fortifying
schools
student
and
skills,
universities
increasing
built with an open architecture, and development, at the core, solves large- Return on Investment and learning
14 15
Endnotes
i
Nandan M. Nilekani, "India's software industry turned superstar after 1991," Rediff, https://
www.rediff.com/money/2009/jan/29-indias-software-industry-turned-superstar-after-1991.
htm.
ii
T. P. Bhat, "India and Industry 4.0", Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, https://isid.
org.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/WP218.pdf.
iii
E TECH, "India to have 900 million active internet users by 2025, says report", The Economic
Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/india-to-have-900-million-
active-internet-users-by-2025-says-report/articleshow/83200683.cms.
iv
Invest India, "The Indian Unicorn Landscape", Invest India, https://www.investindia.gov.in/
indian-unicorn-landscape.
v
Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, "India's Trillion Dollar Digital Opportunity",
MeitY, https://www.meity.gov.in/writereaddata/files/india_trillion-dollar_digital_opportunity.
pdf.
vi
McKinsey Global Institute, "Digital India: Technology to transform a connected nation", McKinsey
Global Institute, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-
insights/digital-india-technology-to-transform-a-connected-nation.
outcomes); transform India’s agriculture Digital India today, means different vii
Ministry of Education, Department of Higher Education, "All India Survey on Higher Education
2019-2020", Ministry of Education, https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/
ecosystem (digital farm advisory, IoT- things to different people—with most files/statistics-new/aishe_eng.pdf
enabled monitoring) to healthcare being things we take for granted—from viii
ET Bureau, " India emerges as the fastest growing country in the world by open source
(demand-supply mismatch – telemedicine, ordering food at 2 AM, shopping online, contribution," The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/information-
tech/india-emerges-as-the-fastest-growing-country-in-the-world-by-open-source-
improve quality and trust). transferring a portion of the salary back
contribution/articleshow/81708087.cms?from=mdr.
home in real-time to creating a reel in the
ix
Nivruti Rai," Data-centric innovation and digitalisation will catalyse India’s growth", Observer
Sectors and industries will radically countryside, but what it does mean for Research Foundation, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/data-centric-innovation-and-
be impacted and change with digital the world is that India with its technology digitalisation-will-catalyse-indias-growth/
adoption. For example, software and is here to lead! x
Milind Kumar Sharma, Samir Mittal, "It's time for Industry 4.0," The Hindu,
applications layer would account for 60% https://www.thehindu. com/opinion/op-ed/its-time-for-industry-40/article36103800.ece
of the value of an autonomous vehicle in xi
Morgan Stanley Blue Papers, "Shared Mobility on the Road of the Future", Morgan Stanley,
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/car-of-future-is-autonomous-electric-shared-mobility
the future . (See Illustration above):
xi
xii
Mayank Agarwal et al.," Industry 4.0: Reimagining manufacturing operations after COVID-19,"
McKinsey Global Institute, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-
Leading this digital transformation, the insights/industry-40-reimagining-manufacturing-operations-after-covid-19
India of tomorrow will drive services and ADIL ZAINULBHAI
make major strides in manufacturing in
Chairman at Capacity
the future.xii (SAMARTH UDYOG Bharat Building Commission
4.0 aims to create technological solutions of India and Quality
Council of India
at scale and increase the share of
manufacturing in GDP to 25% by 2025).
16 17
Unlike developed economies, India’s
green transition is not a matter of
compensating those in sectors that have
to be decarbonised while retrofitting
other, profitable sectors. Nor is India,
unlike some upper-middle income
economies in East Asia, already so
industrialised that the natural movement
from manufacturing to services would be
sufficient to reduce the carbon intensity
of its output. Its commitment to reduce
the carbon intensity of its economy to 45
THE FOUR Cs OF
per cent by 2030 (over 2005 levels) is,
thus, a far deeper commitment than made
INDIA’S GREEN
by those other economies, as it requires
completely eschewing carbon-intensive
GROWTH
growth while at a very different level of
development. Such green growth would
be unprecedented. It requires India to
discover a path to high-income status
that is completely different from all those
before it.
MIHIR SHARMA
In some sectors, India has already
I
demonstrated its ability to absorb
“
ndia is in a unique position with India’s leadership on climate change is, and catalyse transformation at scale.
respect to climate change. It is therefore, not just a matter of keeping its Renewable energy is one such sector.
simultaneously the country with promises; it is a signifier of the country’s About 45 per cent of India’s greenhouse
the most citizens exposed to threats acceptance of global responsibility. Yet, gas emissions come from the power
caused by a warming world; the country the fact is that, India has to increase Commitement, generation sector—unsurprising,
which will have to most dramatically alter its ambition on carbon mitigation
co-benefits, cost
given that coal is abundant in India, and
its development trajectory if the world alongside shouldering enormous reducing energy poverty and increasing
is to keep warming below two degrees adaptation costs—all while ensuring a and captial are supply continues to be a priority for
Celsius; and the member of the G-20 that
has gone furthest towards meeting its
comprehensive economic transformation
that meets the aspirations of its young
the 4 Cs of India's the developmental state. Yet, by the
end of 2021, India had added over 100
climate targets. population. renewable miracle gigawatts of renewable energy capacityi,
and, at COP26, the Prime Minister
18 19committed to taking the non-fossil fuel Modi made clear at COP26, India expects to be built. Proper design of this build-out In the end, the greening of India’s
generation capacity in the country up to climate finance worth US$1 trillion to can reduce cooling demand at the source. development pathway will have to be the
500 gigawatts by 2030. India now has support its ambitions. This is not a gift. It product of millions—indeed billions—
the lowest installed cost for large-scale is not aid. It is investment in our shared, Similar possibilities exist in the transport of such choices. India’s commitment to
solar power in the world —another
ii
global future—an investment that will sector, both in terms of public transport climate change will be marked not just in
demonstration of its traditional skill at bring returns not just in terms of climate and in terms of individual mobility. the singular choices of its leaders, but in
supply-side process innovation. action, but in cold, hard cash. Green Many Indians are yet to buy their first the many choices made by its citizens—
growth is still growth, and growth brings car, and are not necessarily addicted for electrification, for energy efficiency,
The renewable energy revolution in opportunities for investors. to the conveniences of the internal and for responsible consumption. As has
India was powered by the alignment of combustion engine. If they are presented been the case throughout its 75 years of
several factors. First, there was clear India’s ambition on renewables has with attractive alternatives in terms freedom and development, India’s green
political commitment that translated into concealed the fact that similarly ambitious of decarbonised and accessible public transformation will have to be led by the
favourable and consistent policy. Second, targets have been set and are being met transport, or cheap and efficient zero- decisions of its people and by the energy
there were clear co-benefits given that in some other sectors as well. Consider emissions personal vehicles, they may of its private sector.
potential demand outstrips actual supply. cooling, which is inextricably linked to the never choose to buy a traditional car.
Third, technological innovations and cost housing sector as well as to agriculture Thus, there is every chance that India’s
MIHIR SWARUP
reductions could quickly be adopted and through the construction of cold-chain current rate of car ownership—of under SHARMA
adapted. And, fourth, global and domestic networks. The India Cooling Action Plan, 25 for every 1,000 people—will not
is the Director Centre
capital was incentivised to flow into the launched in 2019iii by the Union Ministry increase to levels seen in the West or for Economy and
sector. Commitment, co-benefits, cost, of Environment, Forests and Climate even China. Growth Programme
at the Observer
and capital are the four Cs of India’s Change, plans to reduce cooling demand
Research Foundation.
renewable miracle. India’s success across sectors by at least 20 per cent by
in carving out a unique green growth 2037-38 and to reduce overall energy
trajectory will depend on how effectively requirements for cooling by at least 25 per
the four Cs can be extended to cover cent by 2037-38. Given that this comes at
the greening of other sectors—from a time when the relevant residential and
mobility, to housing, to manufacturing, to commercial sectors will expand manifold
agriculture. and temperatures will continue to rise,
this is exceptionally ambitious.
Endnotes
Three of the four factors can be
engineered domestically—co-benefits, Here, however, one advantage of being
commitment, and cost. But capital will a latecomer to the development race i
Press Release, "India achieves 100 GW Milestone of Installed Renewable Energy Capacity", Ministry
require closer integration—financial, becomes visible. By some estimates, of New and Renewable Energy, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1745254
industrial, and technological—with the almost three-fourths of the buildings that ii
Sudhir Singh, " India becomes lowest-cost producer of solar power," Economic Times, https://
energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/india-becomes-lowest-cost-
rest of the world. As Prime Minister will stand in the India as of 2030 are yet
producer-of-solar-power/69565769
iii
India Cooling Action Plan, "India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP)", International Energy Agency, https://
www.iea.org/policies/7455-india-cooling-action-plan-icap.
20 21contours of the economy. Green
technologies and business models are
set to unleash an unprecedented wave
of disruption, propelling the Indian
economy towards the Green Frontier.
In the last few years, there has been a
swift expansion of the green energy and
technology ecosystem in India—spread
across wind and solar power generation
firms, biofuel production, and electric
vehicle manufacturing. What was once
GETTING TO
an aspiration has become a reality, as
countries around the world are beginning
THE GREEN
to recognise India as an attractive
destination for renewable energy
FRONTIER
investment and are making substantial
investments in India’s green energy
system. Indeed, the Indian renewable
energy industry has rapidly increased
its capacity, at an annual growth rate of
17.5 percent between 2014 and 2019,
and increased the share of renewables in
JAYANT SINHA India’s total energy mix from six percent to
10 percent. This growth was accompanied
by a sharp increase in investment in the
A
s the Indian economy The battle against climate change will and inclusive future for its population of sector, from both domestic and foreign
strides towards achieving play a pivotal role in shaping India’s 1.38 billion people, India must integrate players. Since 2014, the sector has
the US$ 5-trillion goal economic trajectory. Conventional environmental protection into the received investments worth more than
in the next decade, the development models—driven primarily growth agenda. This entails embracing a US$42 billion, and around US$7 billion in
country must navigate through a host of by unbridled industrialisation and rapid development model in which the economy foreign direct investment (FDI) between
multidimensional challenges. Foremost urbanisation—are no longer suitable leapfrogs from “farm to Green Frontier”. April 2000 and June 2018.i
amongst these is the climate change for the country’s economy. The standard
crisis. India has a vast population, with the development model, in which an economy The onset of the Fourth Industrial To be sure, substantial potential remains
majority dependent on the agricultural progresses from farm to factory, has Revolution presents a tremendous untapped in the green economy. Global
sector, making it especially vulnerable become incompatible with India’s twin opportunity for India to couple its experience suggests that long-term
to the irreversible and catastrophic goals of long-term sustainability and economic and environmental goals, economic growth in the 21st century
consequences of climate change. competitiveness. To create a sustainable which will transform the fundamental can only be sustained if policymakers
22 23effectively leverage the linkages between target for 2070 and propelling the levers (2015), National Clean Air Programme Climate change is a global challenge
technological innovation and green of development towards more green (2019) and Jal Jeevan Mission (2019) are that implicates everyone and requires
growth. This can be accomplished by and sustainable pathways. The country important examples of frameworks that coordinated, multi-stakeholder action.
focusing on two key policy levers: Market has declared to increase its non-fossil embed the principle of sustainability in the India’s low-carbon growth pathway can
creation and the mobilisation of green energy capacity to 500 GW, bring its domains of urban development, air quality provide a new and unique model for
finance. As shown by international economy’s carbon intensity down to 45 and water management, respectively. the rest of the developing world. As the
best practices, the green economic per cent, and reduce 1 billion tonnes Schemes such as the Ujjwala Yojana and third-largest greenhouse gas emitter,
transformation of any region must be of carbon emissions from the total the Rural Electrification Programme, too, the country’s climate action will play a
a market-driven process, for which projected emissions—all by 2030. The are driving green technologies across crucial role in bolstering global efforts
policymakers must unleash market capacity target for renewables has been the country. to combat the crisis. Thus, India’s green
forces to incentivise investments for increased from 175 GW to 228 GW by transformation is critical not only to the
building a low-carbon economy. It is also 2022, further committing to fulfil 50 per The next decade will be decisive in Indian growth story but also to global
imperative to dovetail the financial sector cent of its energy requirement through establishing India’s development sustainability.
with the national climate policy, to develop renewable energy by 2030. By launching pathway and with the right policies for
sufficient financing capacity from private the International Solar Alliance (ISA) renewables, electric, mobility, carbon JAYANT SINHA
as well as public sources. At the same in 2015 and the Coalition for Disaster
ii
trading systems and carbon taxes, better
is Member, Global
time, to catalyse any economy’s green Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) in 2019 iii
outcomes can be achieved not only Advisory Board,
transformation, a conducive regulatory and, most recently, the Infrastructure across environmental but also economic Observer Research
Foundation. He is
environment for green innovation is a for Resilient Island States (IRIS) in 2021,iv indicators. Massive green investments
the Chairperson of
necessary condition. Another crucial India has successfully positioned itself will lead to fast economic growth, lower the Parliamentary
policy lever is the creation of an effective as an emerging leader in the domain of energy imports, higher job creation, rise Standing Committee
for Finance and a
institutional architecture to support climate action. The Smart Cities Mission in investment levels, and more lives saved Member of Parliament
from Hazaribagh,
“
green growth, the pillars of which would from air pollution. Careful planning must
Jharkhand.
include legislative bodies, independent be undertaken to ensure the transition is
monitoring organisations, dedicated just, fair and inclusive.
funding agencies, academic institutions
with major climate change research The standard
programmes, and intersectoral expert
groups.
development Endnotes
models are no i
longer compatible
The Indian government’s commitment Jayant Sinha, Tanushree Chandra, " Getting to the Green Frontier Faster: The Case for a Green
Frontier SuperFund", Observer Research Foundation, https://www.orfonline.org/research/
to pursuing low-carbon development is the-case-for-a-green-frontier-superfund/
evident in its ambitious targets and path- with India's goal of ii
International Solar Alliance, https://isolaralliance.org/
breaking climate initiatives. The recently
sustainable Green iii
Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, https://www.cdri.world/
concluded COP26 marks a momentous
moment for India, with Prime Minister Growth” iv
Press Release, "Launch of ‘Infrastructure for Resilient Island States’ (IRIS) at COP26", CDRI,
https://www.cdri.world/press-releases/launch-infrastructure-resilient-island-states-iris-
Narendra Modi declaring a Net Zero cop26
24 25order was already struggling to manage.
That a transatlantic consensus would
provide replicable templates for
governance around the world is no
longer a popular assumption, not even in
its Western core. These challenges do not
undermine the fundamental strengths
of the democratic capitalist model,
which continues to provide prosperity,
security and resilience, wherever it is
fully embraced and thoughtfully applied.
However, they do suggest that the model
requires new champions.
THOUGHTS ON A
Few are as capable of or appropriate for
occupying this mantle as India. For all its
RISING INDIA
monumental challenges as a nation—its
multiple divisions, its colonial past, its
socialist legacy—the Republic of India
stands as a tribute to the emancipatory
potential of freedom and democracy.
Indeed, the coming decades will be
THE RT. HON. STEPHEN J. HARPER shaped in no small part by the choices
India makes as it seeks to rise to its
L “
“great-power” potential. This journey is
ight illuminates; shadows define. now more wealth and opportunity than taking place amidst a shift in the centre
Amidst the gathering clouds of ever before, but there is also growing of gravity of economic power from the
global turbulence and disruption, agitation from globalisation’s uneven Atlantic system to the Indo-Pacific region
India’s rise as a self-defined affects. Disruptions to economic norms India has achieved and during immense technological and
democratic power holds great promise and national identities have led to a lot. Its 3000-year- political transformations.
old civilisation has
for the world order. politics becoming more fragmented and
polarised, while zero-sum behaviour by India’s rise is also set against the
Even before the worldwide trauma authoritarian regimes has weakened the had wide culutral backdrop of a bi-polar contest for global
unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic,
globalisation and rapid advances in
rules-based order.
impacts on all of supremacy between China and the United
States (US), along with the increasing
technology had already been reshaping The pandemic has only strengthened the humanity." decoupling of their economic models.
societies across the globe. There is headwinds that the post-war international Most emerging economies have sought
26 27to prioritise their own development in a Jaishankar, has rightly highlighted that by economic dynamism and mutual benefit progress are incompatible with extreme
multi-polar environment and to protect 2030, India’s human capital will be a key will need to be pursued at the international social diversity and high initial levels of
themselves from the fallout of this feature of its diplomacy. Yet more than level. A well-articulated trade agenda poverty. After Independence, India left
strategic competition. However, the world half of India’s workforce is still employed is essential, which will advance India’s behind the famines of the past. Since the
is increasingly being pushed towards a in the agricultural sector, which accounts place in global supply chains and build 1990s, it has undertaken an economic
real choice: Free markets governed by for a mere 15 percent of the country’s confidence in the country as a destination transformation that is destined to achieve
the rule of law and democratic norms vs. gross domestic product. There is an for investment. It must avoid both the great heights. Now, should India make the
a state-directed, neo-mercantilist model urgent requirement for long-term pitfalls of export-oriented protectionism right choices, it will discover the potential
of trade, investment and debt. Countries structural realignment—a generational and the re-colonisation of Indian sectors. of helping to lead the world to greater
will invariably gravitate towards a rules- transformation—to prepare this diverse Doing this right will not only make India a prosperity and peace.
based world of free nations or a hub-and- workforce for the new realities of the truly wealthy country, but also enhance
spokes global order with Beijing at its Fourth Industrial Revolution. its global leadership and provide the
centre. world with a stronger and more stable THE RT. HON.
Further, India will have to undertake trading order. STEPHEN J. HARPER
India did not need Chinese aggression in substantial economic reforms to realise is Canada’s 22nd
Ladakh to demonstrate on which side of its income goals. Harnessing technology India has already achieved a lot. Its Prime Minister and
Co-Chair of the
these choices it should fall. The country to overcome its rigid bureaucracy, 3,000-year-old civilisation has had wide Observer Research
is, by its very nature, a deeply pluralistic robust federal engagement with state cultural impacts on all of humanity. Foundation’s Global
Advisory Board.
society that will naturally resist any governments, more emphasis on the Modern India has put a lie to the notion that
inclination to authoritarian governance. private sector, and better governance of democratic governance and economic
It is also an inherently entrepreneurial state institutions will be essential moving
nation that has thrived when presented forward. India’s recent policy innovations
with the opportunities that democratic towards economic formalisation, such as
capitalism affords. Thus, as India emerges the delivery of services through Aadhaar
from its non-aligned legacy and becomes and the introduction of the GST (Goods
a real player in the international arena, its and Services Tax), have been significant
success will rest on the democratic model steps in the right direction. Early
at home and appropriate partnerships measures towards the privatisation of
abroad. The bold policy directions of key sectors are encouraging. Necessary
Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicate structural reform in agriculture is being
a clear understanding of India’s growing debated. Additionally, India must scale
importance in the world, its needs and its what is already the world’s third-largest
potential. start-up ecosystem.
One of those needs is greater opportunities Finally, at a time when nations are
for the largest working-age population in reasserting the primacy of their own
the world. External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. economic interests, an Indian agenda of
28 29It was this ambitious statement of intent,
carrying an unusual blend of altruism and
pragmatism, that set the foundations of
modern India’s economic diplomacy. And
it worked. I saw this first-hand during my
extensive travels across Africa, hearing
stories of prime ministers and ministers
who had learned maths and science from
Indian teachers; of industrial estates
and agriculture schools set up by Indian
experts; of national defence colleges
A NEW ECONOMIC
established by the National Defence
College (NDC); of the vast numbers of
DIPLOMACY WHERE
civil servants and technical personnel,
doctors and nurses, engineers and
INDIA MATTERS
scientists who had been trained in India
under the ITEC. From Addis Ababa and
Gaborone to Accra and Windhoek, the
goodwill towards India was palpable. The
country was considered a helpful and
trustworthy friend.
NAVDEEP SURI It felt good, but that was about it. Barring
a handful of honourable exceptions,
India’s aid programmes did not translate
into any distinct economic benefits for the
E
conomic diplomacy is broadly and the United Nations Conference was a newly independent and still country. This started to change sometime
defined as the aspect of on Trade and Development. Foreign impoverished country announcing that around 2005. India rolled out its first lines
diplomacy that focuses assistance programmes were added as it would now provide support to its even of credit (LoCs) to Africa, with a modest
on international economic an afterthought to the principal objective poorer friends in Africa and Asia, arguing sum of US$500 million. With soft interest
relations. In the aftermath of World War of pursuing commercial goals. that, “it was necessary to establish rates that included a grant element of
II, this has usually meant promoting relations on mutual concern and inter- about 30 percent backed by a sovereign
national trade, investment and technology However, India became something of dependence based not only on commonly guarantee, these LoCs became a catalyst
interests through aggressive bilateral an outlier in September 1964, when the held ideals and aspirations but also on for some of India’s leading companies
negotiations and pushing the same Indian Union Cabinet decided to establish solid economic foundations.” to crack the difficult markets of a
interests in multilateral institutions, the Indian Technical and Economic
such as the World Trade Organisation Cooperation Programme (ITEC). India
30 31francophone Africa and to successfully The dramatic expansion of India’s aid
execute projects in countries across programmes under the Development
Asia and Africa. These projects cover Partnership Administration within the
key infrastructure sectors like transport Ministry of External Affairs accompanied
connectivity via railways, roads and an equally vigorous push to the more
ports; power generation and distribution; ‘conventional’ aspects of commercial and
manufacturing industries; and even multilateral economic diplomacy. India’s
agriculture and irrigation. As a result, diplomatic missions became actively
ambitious but often delayed connectivity engaged in organising trade shows and
projects in India’s neighbourhood— “Make in India” events, pursuing market
spanning road, rail and river transport access and contesting non-tariff barriers;
networks along with oil pipelines and wooing MNCs, private equity firms and
power transmission grids—finally sovereign funds to invest in the country;
started to take shape under the direct and pursuing oil concessions and energy
supervision of Prime Minister Modi. security arrangements. India’s high-
profile participation in Dubai Expo 2020
On the services side, India was building and the imaginative manner in which the
IT Centres for Excellence, leveraging its India Pavilion has been used to project a
satellite capabilities to offer education and New India is an example. At the same time,
health services through the e-VidyaBharti by actively participating in multilateral
e-ArogyaBharti programmes. The original institutions, India is signalling its intent
ITEC programme was expanded to to be involved in defining the new rules of
provide 12,000 fully funded training slots the game, instead of remaining a passive
in courses ranging from cybersecurity spectator to rules framed by others.
“
and climate change to entrepreneurship
and education. The government also
started to offer Buyer’s Credit to the tune
of US $1 billion to encourage countries to
purchase Indian products. Recognising India is a veritable
the importance of climate change, India
not only took the lead in establishing
lighthouse of
the International Solar Alliance but also knowledge and
agreed to provide an LoC of US$1.6 ideas, which can
billion to fund solar energy projects in
developing countries.
and will make a
difference”
32 33Nevertheless, in the new decade, India will be followed closely, not only by India’s Energy Technicians, and for IndiaStack country’s formidable strengths and
must confront fresh challenges in competitors but also by its allies in the to configure Aadhar-like solutions. There resources. India is a veritable lighthouse
the domain of economic diplomacy. developing world who count on India’s are many more waiting in the winds, to of knowledge and ideas, which can and
Protectionist trends are on the rise, advocacy to protect their own vital take their ideas and expertise beyond will make a difference.
and there is a preference for bilateral interests. The upcoming collaboration India’s shores. Thus, India must now tell
over multilateral trade arrangements. between the Observer Research its own stories—of the school children in
A growing anti-immigration sentiment Foundation and India’s Foreign Service Bangladesh, the amputees in Malawi, the
in major Western countries poses new Institute to design and run a programme solar grandmothers from Kenya, the IT
hurdles to labour mobility. With artificial on new economic diplomacy signals the graduates from Ghana, the nurses from
intelligence, the Fourth Industrial growing importance of this emerging Ethiopia and all the others whose lives
Revolution, and 5G as the emerging discipline. Over the years, it is expected have been touched by its ideas and vision. AMB. NAVDEEP SURI
backbone of economic growth, India to build significant capacity amongst
is Distinguished
must retool some of its own economic young Indian and foreign diplomats to In this world of new economic diplomacy,
Fellow at ORF
diplomacy. If data is the new oil, clear engage effectively with these issues in the India matters. Instead of lamenting
and transparent domestic laws and context of both bilateral and multilateral about India’s inability to match Chinese
institutions must be developed to inspire platforms. largesse, it is important to play to the
confidence in India as a safe destination
for data processing. If climate change In this new economic diplomacy, it is
becomes an existential matter and important to look beyond government
pandemics such as COVID-19 threaten actors alone. Some of the best talent
to send the entire global economy lies in the exceptional work being done
into a tailspin, India must lead the by India’s leading NGOs in areas such
conversations on subjects ranging from as education, healthcare and financial
resilient infrastructure to global health. inclusion. Some of the brightest ideas in
It’s active participation in the Quad these areas come from the numerous
alongside the US, Japan and Australia social entrepreneurs and start-ups
will play a key role in addressing issues that have taken upon themselves the
of climate change and vaccine production challenge of disrupting business-as-
as also in the quest for critical minerals, usual. Many have developed education,
cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, healthcare, financial inclusion, and other
adoption of 5G and other technologies models that can be scaled up and adapted
from trustworthy sources, and a host of for other developing countries. Cases
other emerging challenges. in point include the growing demand in
several countries for the Pratham model
The positions taken by India on these and of primary school education, the Jaipur
other new areas of economic diplomacy foot, the Barefoot College of Women Solar
34 35economic competitiveness at the macro-
scale is also ample.
However, the vision of growth as the
sole parameter of development has
been challenged globally for over
half a century, with the challenge
becoming more prominent recently
with development being viewed through
the Sustainable Development Goals’
(SDG) lens. To a large extent, SDGs find
TOWARDS A a theoretical underpinning in Mohan
Munasinghe’s sustainomicsii, which
10-TRILLION-DOLLAR talks of a transdisciplinary knowledge
base combining economic, social
INDIAN ECONOMY BASED and environmental goals. This also
presents itself as reconciling between
ON THE SDG AGENDA the irreconcilable trinity of
efficiency, and sustainability dimensions
equity,
of development. Much in contrary to
this global policy and academic thinking,
the Indian “growth-fetishism” has led
NILANJAN GHOSH to a development paradigm that has
“
often witnessed a compromise with
T
the concerns of equity and distributive
he Indian development story, were witnessed in large-scale land- justice, apart from environmental
especially over the last three use changes for linear infrastructure, sustainability. The sheer paucity of
decades since economic agriculture, industry, and urban India should social security to provide a cushion
liberalisation, has focussed
on economic growth only with scant
settlements; dam constructions impeding
over the natural hydrological flows, and
present itself as during crisis was evidenced during
the economic lockdown of 2020 in the
recognition of the costs of growth. While the like. These have also been associated a more equitable wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which
growth entailed creation of new capital with social costs of rehabilitation or lack
green economy by clearly revealed the anguishes of the
through large capital expenditures, in of rehabilitation leading to conflicts. Yet, country’s migrant labour, the micro and
most cases, the costs imposed on the there is no denying the critical role physical reconciling between small enterprises, and the poor. It was
society and natural ecosystem have capital plays in promoting economic equality, efficiency, apparent that the social cushioning to
been so overwhelming that they have
raised questions on the efficacy of such
growth, while the empirical evidencei
of physical infrastructure enhancing
& sustainability” the poor and vulnerable has been, so far,
provided by the market forces, thereby,
investments! Such capital expenditures the overall business environment and highlighting the failure of policy-driven
36 37You can also read
