Arc Market Databook - Bidwells

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Arc Market Databook - Bidwells
Summer 2021

Arc Market Databook

OFFICES
M1 SOUTH
                                                                               74k sq ft
                                                                               Although take up in Milton Keynes eases
                                                                               in H1, activity is set to increase in H2
                                                                               with 50,000 sq ft under offer at the end
In common with many areas across the UK, the Milton Keynes office
                                                                               of the period
market is experiencing a period of uncertainty as businesses review
occupational strategies in the wake of the pandemic. However, there

                                                                               80k sq ft
are reasons to feel positive about the city’s office market going forward.
Santander has designated its city centre Unity Place development its new
UK HQ. Moreover, the number of office space requirements in the city are
up by over a quarter on last year, albeit businesses are often trading size
for quality.                                                                   Grade A supply in Milton Keynes
                                                                               remains constrained, with only 80,064
With very little grade A space available, this will present a challenge. The   sq ft on the market
market will need to adjust to the shift in priorities, but the acceleration
of plans to refurbish Northgate House is a positive sign. The opening of
the Santander HQ in 2023, combined with a positive business outlook
for the city’s tech sector in particular, will provide an economic fillip to
Milton Keynes over the next few years. This will drive rental growth and
potentially spur forward further refurbishment and redevelopments to
accommodate the emergent office landscape.

bidwells.co.uk/research
Arc Market Databook - Bidwells
News highlights

Milton Keynes return to work gathers                                     111 bank branches along with a number of                                            MK:U announces first pilot degrees
momentum                                                                 office locations. Santander has recently                                            for business
Through the use of Google Maps, recent                                   put its 115,000 sq ft call centre at Shenley                                        MK:U launched its first four pilot Degree
research undertaken by merchant payment                                  Wood House on the market, with the                                                  Apprenticeships in May 2021, with
company Dojo has shown that the number                                   majority of staff to work from home until                                           courses due to start in September
of workers returning to the office in Milton                             Unity Place becomes operational.                                                    2021. The degrees will focus on the
Keynes is amongst the highest in the UK.                                                                                                                     technology sector, covering data science,
                                                                         Occupier demand for quality office
Data from April showed that footfall was                                                                                                                     cyber security, digital and technology
                                                                         space brings forward refurbishments
up by 14% compared to the height of the                                                                                                                      solutions along with a general business
                                                                         There is no doubt that many occupiers
pandemic in mid January, reflecting a                                                                                                                        management course. Plans for MK:U’s
                                                                         are reducing their office floor space
return to the office after the end of the                                                                                                                    permanent home in Central MK are
                                                                         requirements, but Bidwells’ Milton Keynes
third lockdown. This upturn is consistent                                                                                                                    progressing with Cranfield University,
                                                                         office has seen a surge in demand for
with the national picture, captured in the                                                                                                                   Milton Keynes Council and its business
                                                                         accommodation of 20,000 sq ft and
latest ONS statistics which reveals a record                                                                                                                 backers promoting the cause to the
                                                                         below. With the scaling back of a number
level of recruitment by UK companies in                                                                                                                      government’s new National Science and
                                                                         of larger requirements, demand for smaller
June and rising wages.                                                                                                                                       Technology Council.
                                                                         suites stood at 221,600 sq ft at the end
Santander announces Unity Place to                                       of H1 2021 - its highest level since 2017.
become its UK headquarters                                               But, whilst the scale of requirements has
Santander’s new 398,000 sq ft technology                                 eased, businesses are focusing on better
hub at Unity Place in Central MK is to                                   quality stock. This has brought forward
become the bank’s UK headquarters when                                   plans to upgrade space by landlords, with
it completes in 2023. The announcement                                   the comprehensive refurbishment of the
follows the news that the bank will close                                33,807 sq ft Northgate House in the city
                                                                         centre due to commence in H2 2021.

Milton Keynes Offices

The largest transaction in H1 2021 was the 25,729 sq ft letting to the
Department for Work and Pensions at Phoenix House in Central MK

Office supply (June 2021)                                      Office demand (June 2021)                                                                            Office rents (June 2021)
  Grade A                                                      Take up                                             Requirements
  Grade B                                                        Grade A                                              50
  Availability rate (rhs)                                        Grade C                                             10 - 20
                                                                 10 yr average                                       20 - 30
  900                                                17%       350                                                 1,200                                                  35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            £32.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     £32.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   £30.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                          £29.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                 £28.50

  800
                                                                                                                                                                               £28.00

                                                                                                                                                                                        £28.00

                                                     16%       300                                                 1,000                                                  30
  700
                                                     15%       250                                                                                                        25
  600                                                                                                               800

  500                                                14%       200                                                                                                        20
                                                                                                                    600
                                                                                                                                                                                        0.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                          1.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3.4%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            6.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.0%

  400                                                13%       150                                                                                                        15

  300                                                                                                               400                                       0%
                                                     12%       100                                                                                            11%         10
  200                                                                                                                                                         26%
                                                     11%                                                            220
                                                                50                                                                                            37%          5
  100
                                                                                                                                                              5%
    0                                                10%          0                                                   0                                       21%          0
                                                                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                                                                                        21(f)
                                                                                                                                                                                                 22(f)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          23(f)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   24(f)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25(f)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     26(f)
        2016

               2017

                      2018

                             2019

                                    2020

                                           2021 H1

                                                                      2016

                                                                             2017

                                                                                    2018

                                                                                           2019

                                                                                                  2020

                                                                                                         2021 H1

                                                                                                                       2016

                                                                                                                              2017

                                                                                                                                     2018

                                                                                                                                            2019

                                                                                                                                                   2020

                                                                                                                                                          2021 H1

Availability 000’s sq ft                             810.2 p   2021 H1                                             Requirements                                     Prime £psf                                                        £28.00 }|
Availability rate                                    15% p     Take up 000’s sq ft                   73.8 q        000’s sq ft                       351.6 p        Secondary good £psf                                               £25.00 }|
                                                                                                                                                                    Secondary poor £psf                                               £13.50 }|
                                                                                                                                                                    Annualised growth rate                                              2.5% p.a
Arc Market Databook - Bidwells
Capital Markets

Investment activity in the M1              yield of 9.00%. There are various
south office market was                    asset management opportunities         Milton Keynes Prime Office Yield
dominated by transactions in               available at Marlborough Court, with
                                                                                  8.00%
Milton Keynes, where sales                 the average lease term to break
continued at similar levels to             standing at just over 2 years.
those seen in the previous 12
                                           One of the more interesting            7.50%
months.
                                           transactions was the purchase of
                                           Drakes Mews Business Centre at
A total of £20.6m of office
                                           Crownhill by The Parks Trust for       7.00%
transactions were completed in
                                           £4.4m. The centre offers 27 small
Milton Keynes in the first six months
                                           business units and studios, with
of 2021, compared with just under
                                           the Trust currently refurbishing the   6.50%
£50m during the whole of 2020.
                                           units.
Activity has been focused on lot
sizes below £10m.
                                                                                  6.00%
The largest transaction in the year
to date was the purchase of the
44,240 sq ft, multi let Marlborough
                                                                                  5.50%
Court at Linford Wood Business
Park for £6.9m, reflecting a net initial
                                                                                  5.00%

                                                                                           2011

                                                                                                  2012

                                                                                                         2013

                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                       2015

                                                                                                                              2016

                                                                                                                                     2017

                                                                                                                                            2018

                                                                                                                                                   2019

                                                                                                                                                          2020

                                                                                                                                                                 2021 H1
                                                                                  Source: Bidwells

Key Bidwells transaction                                                          The facts

Drakes Mews, Milton
Keynes
Bidwells’ leasing and Capital
Markets teams advised on the
                                                                                  £28 psf
                                                                                  Prime office rents in Milton Keynes remain stable, with
freehold sale of Drakes Mews                                                      good quality second hand rents at £25 per sq ft
Business Centre in Milton
Keynes. Comprising of 27

                                                                                  13%
small to medium enterprise
office and industrial workshop
units, the property extends to
51,475 sq ft and provides the
purchaser, The Parks Trust,
with asset management                                                             Increase in office floorspace requirements in
potential for the estate.                                                         Milton Keynes since the end of 2020

                                                                                  14.3%
                                                                                  Five year forecast increase in prime office rents in
                                                                                  Milton Keynes, rising to £32 per sq ft by 2025
Arc Market Databook - Bidwells
Milton Keynes office locations                                                                                                 A509

                                                                                                        M1

                                         A508

                                                               X                                                    M
                                                                                                         A422
                                           E                                                                                      J.14
                                                           C                                        B                                          University Campus
                                                                                               U
                                                                                                        A509                V        W
                                                                   A5

                                                                                               CITY
        A.   Caldecotte Lake Business Park                                                    CENTRE
        B.   Linford Wood Business Centre
                                                                                                                                     Q        P
        C.   Warren Park                                                                                                                                                              J.13
        D.   National Energy Centre                                                                                     Open University
        E.   Old Stratford Business Park                                                        K
                                                                                                                        National Campus     A4146                                                    M1
        F.   Station Square
        G.   Santander House
        H.   Victoria House                                                                                                          A
        I.   Central Business Exchange                                                                       D N
        J.   Exchange Square                                                                                                                                                                     O
        K.   Routeco Business Park
        L.   Genesis House
        M.   VW Campus, Tongwell                                                                                                                                      J
        N.   Challenge House                                            A421
        O.   New City Place (to be developed)                                                                                                                                     L          I
        P.   Wavendon Business Park                                                                                       A4146
                                                                                                                                                                                      R
        Q.   Kents Hill Business Park                                                                                                                             G
        R.   The HUB:MK
                                                                                                                                                                          S   H
        S.   The Pinnacle:MK                                                                                                                                 A5
        T.   100 Avebury Boulevard                                                                              Bletchley Park
        U.   Woodlands Business Park                                                                                                                     F
        V.   Eastlake Park
        W.   Atterbury                                                                                                                                            T
        X.   Manor Farm Court

                              Holly Dawson
                              Partner, Business Space Agency
                              07917 243 887
                              holly.dawson@bidwells.co.uk

                              Saul Western
                              Partner, Capital Markets
                              07899 061 889
                              saul.western@bidwells.co.uk
                                                                                                                            Arc Market Databook

                              Sue Foxley
                              Research Director
                              07971 402 527
                              sue.foxley@bidwells.co.uk

bidwells.co.uk/research
Bidwells is a trading name of Bidwells LLP, a limited liability partnership, registered in England and Wales with number OC344553.
© Copyright Bidwells LLP 2020. Before taking any action based on this document you should consult Bidwells LLP to ensure that
it is appropriate to your circumstances. Bidwells LLP is in no way responsible for any views expressed within this document.
Arc Market Databook - Bidwells Arc Market Databook - Bidwells Arc Market Databook - Bidwells Arc Market Databook - Bidwells Arc Market Databook - Bidwells Arc Market Databook - Bidwells
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