Anzdmc.com.au Australian & New Zealand Disaster and Emergency Management Conference

DISASTER &
                                      EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

                                                anzdmc.com.au

               Australian & New Zealand Disaster and
                Emergency Management Conference
                             3 – 5 May 2015 I Jupiters Gold Coast

In association with

Dr Nicole Aimers
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Design Innovation, Swinburne University of Technology

Co-authors: Dr Clementine Thurgood, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Design Innovation Research Centre,
University of Technology, Sydney

Disaster warnings and public resistance: Why the effect of repeated exposure needs to be examined
within the emergency management sector.

Effective community messaging is a challenging and ongoing area of investigation within the emergency
management sector. In an attempt to evoke compliance, the public are repeatedly exposed to warnings
which convey risk information. However, these warnings are often ignored, creating an urgent need to
identify the reasons behind this public resistance. One such reason that requires further investigation is that
of message wear-out or message fatigue. In fact, in an article by Vermeulen (2014), a recommendation was
made to emergency professionals to not over-warn through repeatedly alerting the public about a single
event. However, this poses the question: How many times should the public be exposed to warnings before
their effectiveness begins to wane? This question could be addressed by exploring the mere exposure effect
to the disaster warnings.

The mere exposure effect has been documented as a robust a reliable phenomenon (Bornstein, 1989) and
refers to the observation that repeated, unreinforced exposure to a stimulus increases affective evaluations
of that stimulus (Zajonc, 1968). Put simply, the more familiar a person is with a given stimulus, the more they
are reported to like it. The need to investigate the mere exposure effect to disaster warnings was highlighted
by a recent study conducted by Aimers (2014). Within this study, cigarette health warnings were used and it
was identified that participant liking ratings began to significantly increase after their initial exposure.
Likewise, the health warnings also became significantly less unpleasant and arousing following only 2
exposures. Hence, given that both health and disaster warnings are designed to be attention grabbing and
provide directive instruction to change behaviour, the findings of Aimers (2014) suggest that the intended
behaviours are not always elicited as a result of repeated exposure. Therefore, emergency professionals
need to be aware of the possibility that disaster warnings are also susceptible to the effect of repeated
exposure (i.e., the mere exposure effect). As a consequence, consideration of ideal message-rotation
frequencies to retain message efficacy would be needed.

Mr Mark Babister
Managing Director, WMA WATER

Co-authors: Miss Monique Retallick, Associate, WMA WATER
Mrs Melanie Loveridge, Engineer, WMA WATER
Miss Isabelle Testoni, Engineer WMA WATER

Use of a Monte Carlo framework for Emergency Management

The Hawkesbury Nepean River is one of the largest in Australia and passes through some of the most
populated suburbs of Sydney. Within the catchment there are a large number of flood prone properties and
lives at risk from flooding.

Design flood estimation in Australia is moving from a single design event to a Monte Carlo approach where
1000's of events are modelled. The use of a Monte Carlo framework with thousands of events which
represent observed behaviour in temporal and spatial patterns of rainfall, antecedent conditions, and

variations in tributary timing provides a unique opportunity for emergency managers to investigate the
variability in events and to improve pre flood event planning.

A Monte Carlo framework has been developed of the Hawkesbury Nepean valley which allows the
equivalent of a 200,000 year flood record to be analysed rather than the standard handful design events.
The following information was extracted and analysed from the model results to inform emergency
management planning:

-     Time of inundation of key infrastructure
-     Time to reach a trigger height
-     Change in number of times a trigger height is reached
-     Rate of rise
-     Rate of recession

Ms Melanie Baker-Jones
PhD Candidate, Queensland University of Technology

Litigation Mitigation: A legal risk assessment of social media usage in Emergencies

This ongoing program of research examines the legal risks associated with the utilization of social media in
an emergency from an agency perspective. A variety of channels are available for conveying information to
citizens during an emergency. The utilization of new channels can bring about new risks which require
mitigation. The objective of this research is to undertake rigorous assessment of the legal risks associated
with social media, specifically in tort law and where intolerable levels of risk arise, identify best practice
protocols to treat them.

Background
In Australia, emergency services are engaging with social media platforms to varying degrees, with disparate
levels of expertise. For those agencies yet to engage, the pressure to do so is growing, yet concerns about
the potential liability of users still exist. Generic guidelines on government use of Web 2.0 vary in depth of
coverage although generally provide only a broad outline of the nature of the legal risks. This suggests a gap
exists.

Methods
The research adopts both a theoretical and doctrinal approach which incorporates general theory as well as
an analysis of current AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 risk management standards, legislation and case law against
the background of current practices. The theory provides the framework for the examination of legal risk
based on hypothetical case studies of real world models.

Conclusion
The research aims to provide an in-depth assessment of legal risks associated with Web 2.0 in the context of
Emergency Management in order to ascertain whether and to what extent new risks arise. The research is
valuable as by confirming existence of risk, it allows for the development of best practice protocols within
the context of a legal framework, which could be followed in order to alleviate concerns of liability and
enable maximization of an effective tool for emergency management.

Ms Shuron Billman
Psychologist, Charles Sturt University

Exploring the Psychological Sequelae of Pet and Livestock Loss following a Natural Disaster: 18 months
after the 2013 Queensland Floods

The loss of companion animals or livestock (via death or displacement) is an understudied, but increasingly
recognised impact of natural disasters. A series of tornadoes and flash flooding which struck the Wide bay
and North Burnett regions of Queensland on Australia day weekend 2013 was such a disaster.

This study examined the psychological effects of companion animal and livestock loss on the urban and rural
residents who lived in affected areas. Data collection is underway until March 2015 (n currently = 136).
Participants completed online and hardcopy questionnaires assessing demography, forced abandonment
and evacuation issues, pet and/or livestock loss and post disaster symptoms of depression, anxiety, global
psychological distress, Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and drug and/or alcohol consumption using
previously validated scales. Measures were examined, controlling for displacement from homes and
properties. Quantitative and qualitative results will be available April 2015.

Dr Deanne Bird
Research Fellow, Risk Frontiers

Co-author: Dr Rob van den Honert, Co-Director, Risk Frontiers

Defining and measuring community resilience: can it be done?

The Australian Government’s National Strategy for Disaster Resilience sets out clear goals regarding
community resilience. However, there is a lack of guidance on what is meant by resilience and how it can
and should be measured. To address these issues, Risk Frontiers is building on recent research into the field
to develop a model for measuring community resilience, based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
approaches. Input has been sought from academic experts, government officials and policy makers.

Importantly, the model will be able to quantitatively measure the change in community resilience across
time, or due to some intervention (say an education program). Essentially, the project aims to build a
measurement tool that incorporates easily accessed and/or collected data, while avoiding user fatigue.

Within this scope, we have identified the constituent elements defining resilience and garnered expert
advice to jointly determine the relative importance weights of each of these elements. From here, the model
will be tested in a community in which there has been no intervention, and at least one in which a program
of resilience building has been undertaken. In this paper, we will present the process undertaken to build the
community resilience model and discuss the outcomes of field-testing.

Mr Wayne Buckman
Senior Advisor, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning

Co-author: Ms Amy Rogers, Bushfire RRATs Coordinator, Department of Environment, Land, Water and
Planning

How a rapid risk assessment can change your recovery world - a practical example from the Adelaide Hills
Sampson Flat bushfire

As part of the interstate support to South Australia for the Adelaide Hills bushfires in January 2015, Victoria
deployed a Bushfire Rapid Risk Assessment Team (RRAT). The Bushfire RRATs program has been developed
based on the US BAER (Burnt Area Assessment Teams) deployments to Victoria to assist with the 2009 Black
Saturday Bushfires.

The Bushfire RRATs are a multi-disciplinary team that conduct rapid risk assessments following a bushfire (or
other emergency) event. These risk assessments are conducted to assist the land and emergency managers
in identifying and minimising the post-event impacts on communities, public land and adjacent private land,
with the goal of reducing further threat to life and property, infrastructure and the environment. The risks
assessed can include: flooding or land slips that damage infrastructure assets; biodiversity impacts such as
loss of species; burn severity impacting soil regeneration; and exposure damage to cultural heritage sites.

As part of this risk assessment the Bushfire RRATs produce a report that recommends strategies for risk
mitigation. These reports are a vital tool for the land managers as they transition from response to recovery,
and greatly speeds up the transition process as the Bushfire RRATs are able to give the regional staff a costed
and prioritized work program.

One of the strengths of the Bushfire RRATs program is the involvement of stakeholders in the process. By
engaging directly and early with the relevant local stakeholders the Bushfire RRATs are able to make sure
they are considering the risks with the greatest importance to the local community, as well as the more
obvious risks such as infrastructure and threatened species.

The Bushfire RRATs have now been deployed to Tasmania, South Australia and extensively used within
Victoria. NSW and the ACT have adapted the Bushfire RRATs model and developed their Burnt Area
Assessment Teams (BAATs). Having proven the Bushfire RRAT process can work outside Victoria, the
potential for further interstate deployments, or stronger connections with the BAATs program can be
explored.

Mr Phil Carney
Director, Department of Communities, Child Safety and Disability Services

Co-authors: Mrs Annabelle Johnstone, Senior Advisor Community Recovery, Department of Communities,
Child Safety and Disability Services

Reforming human and social recovery in Queensland

As lead for human and social recovery in Queensland, the Department of Communities, Child Safety and
Disability Services has introduced significant reforms to ensure that service delivery will be more efficient
and effective and contribute to building resilience in Queensland communities.

Human and social recovery helps individuals, families and communities to recover from disaster events. This
includes support for the restoration of emotional, social and physical well-being.

Until late 2013, Queensland had a model of human and social recovery based on complex processes and
procedures with limited ability to target the most disaster affected communities. Human and social recovery
was dependent on establishing large community recovery centres, complex paperwork and non-targeted
access to financial assistance and other support services.

Reform was desperately needed due to inefficiency in operationalising recovery systems, assistance not
reaching those who needed it most in an efficient manner and the high cost of delivering assistance. Due to
the number of disasters in some parts of Queensland, a lack of resilience in some communities was also
becoming evident.

New reforms introduced in late 2013 saw the implementation of a more targeted model of service delivery
using a sophisticated mapping system and mobile recovery teams, allowing assistance to reach those most in
need more efficiently. Simpler processes leading to red tape reduction and improved systems and
procedures for the assessing and granting of financial assistance with clearer eligibility criteria would see a
better use of public funds and fewer opportunities for fraud. Communities would also be encouraged to help
themselves and each other building resilience.

These reforms were tested in April 2014 during the Tropical Cyclone Ita event. The outcomes were
significant, with targeted mobile delivery of vital human and social recovery services to those most in need,
better use of public funds and evidence of Queenslanders and their communities becoming more resilient.

Mr Frankie Carroll
Chief Executive Officer, Queensland Reconstruction Authority

Building it back better to reduce risks after multiple disaster events

The Queensland Reconstruction Authority is currently managing a $13.3 billion disaster reconstruction
program, following consecutive years of major flood and cyclone events from 2009- 2014.

Building back better in order to reduce risk to communities and accelerate recovery after disasters is
recognised as a key element in the post disaster reconstruction process.

In an Australian first, the Queensland Betterment Fund was announced in February 2013 following Tropical
Cyclone Oswald, a disaster event that caused $2.4 billion in damage to many public assets that had been
repeatedly impacted and restored following earlier disasters in 2011 and 2012.

The intent of the Betterment Fund is to deliver global good practice in disaster reconstruction by increasing
the resilience of Queensland communities to natural disasters, while at the same time reducing risk and
future expenditure on asset restoration.

In a landmark agreement between the Queensland and Australian Governments, a joint, targeted fund of
$80 million was approved to allow assets to be built back to a standard that would be more disaster resilient,
reducing cost and risk to the community from future events. Under the Fund, local government assets were
to receive the funding with a focus on grass roots assets that would provide maximum benefit in terms of
resilience and risk reduction for a relatively minimal investment of public funds.

This presentation explores the establishment of the Queensland Betterment Fund and the significant role
the fund plays in increasing the resilience of Queensland communities to natural disasters, and improving
asset utility during and after natural disasters.

Mr Jason Catlin
Manager, NGIS

Assess Report and Map - MFB's State-wide Impact Assessment Capability

The Metropolitan Fire Brigade (MFB), also known as the Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services Board,
provides firefighting, rescue, medical and hazardous material incident response services to the metropolitan
area of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

With recent events across Australia and in New Zealand these MFB USAR technicians have been deployed
with other national and worldwide response efforts in offering assistance to the Christchurch’s devastating
earthquake in New Zealand, the flood crisis in Queensland and to the 2009 bushfires in Victoria. These
events highlighted the requirement of USAR to map, assess and report on the impact of these events on the
community in a timely and accurate manner.

USAR acknowledged that there was a gap in their ability to respond effectively to events in Victoria, because
there were no spatial systems that allowed management to view the event and allow them to effectively
manage their resources; their paper-based system was impacting on their ability to effectively deploy their
response capabilities.

These major events have demonstrated the need for data to be collected and shared in real time to evaluate
the extent of the emergency and allow ESO’s to plan their response. Currently Victorian ESO’s use paper
based collection methods. This is then manually collated, checked and entered into a GIS.

MFB has implemented a solution called ARM360 which has successfully replaced the manual component and
allows for an immediate, live review of data from the field. Secondary assessments and human services for
effected areas and or individual properties can also be collected.

The system provides a common operational picture (COP) that enables reports, photographs/video in
various reporting forms that will give information to Ministers, Senior Agency Officers, Incident Controllers
and other recovery agencies using the agreed state-wide standards and terms.

Mr Doug Caulfield
Principal Consultant, Emergency Management Network Solutions

Council Collaborations - Is this the new 'normal'

Victorian State EM arrangements, expect much of local government in terms of service provision before,
during and after an emergency. Rural municipalities in particular must consider innovative and cost effective
ways to meet the growing demands of their communities and the increasing requirements of government
departments and the broader emergency services sector.

In 2013, during the course of developing a set of Standard Operating Procedures for the establishment and
operation of Emergency Relief Centres, it became evident that, there would be similar (if not greater) benefit
in drafting a similar set of practices for local government’s actions in both the response to, and recovery
from emergency incidents.

And so a second funding application was submitted by the Gippsland collaboration group to the Natural
Disaster Resilience Grants Scheme to maintain the momentum gained during the initial project.
As the old saying goes, fortune favours the brave and the group’s application (albeit delayed somewhat by a
change of Federal Government) was approved and the second project commenced in October 2014.

At last year’s conference, a presentation outlined the process used to reach consensus as to the content,
procedures and design of the end product.

The same methodology is to be applied to this latest project, however, this presentation will concentrate on
the who, what, when, where and how of this new approach of integrating local government into the incident
control framework.

Not only will the Incident Controller benefit, but the council officers and other stakeholder agencies charged
with the responsibility of delivering an efficient and effective post-incident recovery program will as well.
Ultimately, the thread of improvement will aid communities by providing appropriate recovery service
delivery when and where it is needed, in a vastly improved timeframe and in a much more coordinated
delivery model.

Mr Jimmy Christiansen
Managing Director, Live Training Professionals

The next level in first response and rescue training

This dynamic live safety training organisation specialises in creating specific incidents, in a controlled, risk
managed, and participant friendly environment. Unsuspecting participants will be dragged out of their
comfort zone and into varying levels of primal state, fight or flight.

Anyone can become affected when dealing with highly stressful situations- Increased heart rate, shallow
breathing, body alarm response, tunnel vision, and an inability to comprehend what is unfolding. These are
all physiological and psychological functions that can affect our decision making and performance
capabilities in these critical situations.

To visually witness and identify what variables can occur during an incident, we can then identify mistakes
made by participants when affected by the critical incident cycle, and as a result techniques can then be
learnt on how to effectively operate in this altered, primal state. This is an immeasurable experience and
unparalleled learning tool.

We provide the tools to create the best possible outcome under extreme mental, physical and emotional
circumstances. Those of us that have been involved in these chaotic and critical incidents will know, we don’t
know how were going to behave and respond to a highly stressful situation, until we find ourselves in that
situation.

LTP has developed and patented a learning and operational model that encompasses the entire cycle of first
response, and emergency response and recue management.

The training modules designed by this company provide an experience that will open the eyes of the closed,
and hone the skills of the open.

Our live experiences use the same systems and approach to risk management required throughout the
Australian workforce, proof that the systems we are required by legislation to use, work, even when we are
tested under extreme circumstances…

Ideal for emergency services and organisations with a problematic safety culture, this is the next level of
safety and response training…

Mr Andrew Church
Food Safety Training Manager, EMCS

Food Safety, Training & Logistics In Emergency Situations

All emergency workers need fresh, quality and nutritious food to help them endure the challenges faced in
any crisis situation. Emergency situations and remote locations present unique challenges but these can be
overcome through planning & logistics, safe food handling, staff training and use of suitable equipment.

Mrs Samantha Colwell
Manager Community Fire Unit, Fire & Rescue NSW

Community Fire Units response to Blue Mountains bushfires 2013

In order to build capability in the bushfire urban interface, Fire & Rescue NSW established a Community Fire
Unit (CFU) program 20 years ago following the devastating 1994 bushfires. The program grew rapidly and
now has over 600 units and 7000 volunteers across NSW. This presentation will share the strategies used in
building resilience in bushfire prone communities with the provision of firefighting equipment, protective
equipment, training and support from a fire service to local residents. The effectiveness of these units will be
explored as well as the challenges faced by the organisation in managing such a large, diverse volunteer
workforce such as an ageing population, providing consistency in training levels and monitoring adherence
to organisation policy and procedures.

The recent bushfires in October 2013 in the Blue Mountains was the biggest test for many CFUs in the area,
as well as the overall program management by Fire & Rescue NSW. Many units were heavily impacted and
sadly 22 CFU members lost their homes in the fires. However significant work was done by these volunteers
– protecting property, community engagement and recovery activities.

The presentation will discuss how Fire & Rescue NSW supported these community volunteers during and
after this event, the challenges that were faced and the lessons learned. A case study will be discussed on
how one particular CFU not only provided significant support in a response capacity but also took the
initiative to assist with the recovery effort.

Fire & Rescue NSW commissioned research by Risk Frontiers through the Bushfire & Natural Hazards
Cooperative Research Centre to investigate the operation of CFUs in the Blue Mountains during the major
fires. These findings will be shared along with the recommendations and the improvements being made by
FRNSW as a result of these bushfires.

Mr Richard Davies
President, Warrandyte Community Association Inc.

Be Ready Warrandyte- Living with Bushfire Risk

‘Be Ready Warrandyte - Living with Bushfire Risk’ is a community-based campaign to persuade residents
within the Greater Warrandyte area to prepare effective fire plans. Warrandyte and North Warrandyte are
townships at high risk from bushfire.

The campaign is managed as a sub-committee of the Warrandyte Community Association Inc. and is
volunteer-lead. Effective engagement with local and state emergency services has resulted in strong
support and integrated and complementary initiatives.

It has been funded by the State Government, local Councils and local Community Organisations and
supported by the RMIT University’s Centre for Risk and Community Safety and the Random Hacks of
Kindness global technology community. It is a professionally managed project, by the local Good Work
Group.

In the early phase of the campaign, a broad whole-of-community survey delivered statistically valid
information regarding the preparedness of the community to respond to a bushfire threat.

This 'benchmarking' has informed the focus and the outcomes of subsequent work, a 'Be Ready Toolbox',
which includes the 'Be Ready' website, www.warrandyte.org/fire, featuring customised apps for local
conditions, high quality communications and information, sample fire plans, a spoof video (since gone viral
and picked up by emergency services globally), scenario planning workshops, public meetings and fire-
bunker information sessions and tours.

'Be Ready Warrandyte' is currently investigating the interaction and potential conflict of Bushfire and
Heatwave messaging.

The campaign has gained national recognition and received threeFire Awareness Awards in 2013 including
the overall award for excellence for making a particularly significant and innovative contribution to
promoting fire awareness in the community.

The presentation will examine what worked well, what can be done better and what needs to be done more
widely to communicate emergency messages to the wider community.

Dr Paula Dootson
Professor, Queensland University of Technology

Co-author: Prof Vivienne Tippett, Professor, Queensland University of Technology

Effective communication during disasters: What effects community decision making & action?

This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early
recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction
frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research
has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as
informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. In recent years, media reports have
consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural
disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by
floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under
stress.

This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired
action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging
from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency
instruction. To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to
develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for
compliance improvement.

Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about
emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. The research described here will contribute
improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework
that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and
multiple channels of communication including social media.

Mr Rick Draper
Principal Advisor & Managing Director, Amtac Professional Services Pty Ltd

Cross platform data gathering in the field: There might be "an app for that", but is it the best option

With the unprecedented number of smart phones and tablet devices, it seems only local that disaster and
emergency management organisations will look towards apps to gather data in the field. However,
maintaining dedicated apps across multiple platforms and generations of devices brings with it the potential
for disaster when disaster strikes.

This presentation will describe in simple terms the differences between apps and web-applications, and
highlight the pros and cons of both approaches. It will dispel many of the myths around what can happen on
and off-line, recognising that an Internet connection might just not be available in the middle of a disaster
zone. The presentation will also include insights into gathering data from social media sources and some
words of caution about the metadata in social media posts from an emergency management perspective.

Mr Andrew Edwards
Implementation Specialist, Fire & Rescue NSW

‘Miinder’ – Using Analytics to Forecast Disaster Mitigation, Preparation and Response

Fire & Rescue NSW, is one of the largest urban fire and rescue agencies in the world. In 2013/14 the
organisation responded to 126,966 incidents, of which 25,041 were fire related (Annual Report 2014:7). It is
estimated that the economic impact of these incidents in NSW alone exceeds $166.4 million (Productivity
Commission 2014:Table 9A12). With experience in developing and delivering operating information
management solutions tailored to the emergency service industry Fire & Rescue NSW is looking to the future
and how information can be better leveraged.

The ‘Miinder’ project proposes to provide a tool to model the likelihood and consequence to future
emergencies and disasters through the analysis of historical, current and forecast risk factors (eg weather,
environment, geography, socio economic) to:
     Prevent/Mitigate through targeted education of communities, behaviours and localities
     Prepare by advising emergency services and communities on the likelihood and consequence of
        forecast events (including Black Swan)
     Respond more quickly by pre-deploying resources based on predictions

This will be achieved by applying concepts used in Policing and Ambulance Services to forecast demand.
Human assisted machine learning will be incorporated into the solution to improve forecasts over time.
Ground truthing of models will occur through consultation with experienced fire fighters to confirm the
validity of any proposed solution.

By forecasting risk to the property level, perceived benefits of this project will be:
     Safer Communities through reduced harm to people and their property
     Reducing future costs through the more effective use of emergency service organisations resources
     Measure the economic triple bottom line (people, planet and public value) costs of emergencies and
        disasters
     Reduce the frequency and impact of disasters

This paper will discuss lessons learned to date following a proof of concept, current status of the project,
consultation and partnerships with industry and academia and future directions.

Ms Caroline Even
Research Assistant, NICTA

Co-authors: Dr Victor Pillac, Researcher, NICTA
Prof Pascal Van Hentenryck, Research Group Leader, NICTA

Latest advances in evacuation planning

When to evacuate, and how, can spell the difference between life and death when a major disaster strikes.
In this presentation, we will present the latest technological advances for automated evacuation planning
and simulation.

We will present three optimisation algorithms that produce (1) evacuation plans that automatically decide
which roads should be used in contraflow, (2) evacuation plans that ensure that all evacuation routes merge
at intersection points and converge to shelters or outside the threatened area, and (3) evacuation plans that

take into account the response of evacuees to evacuation orders. In all three cases, and unlike most existing
approaches, we are able to provide an evacuation plan in which each evacuated area is given an evacuation
route and an evacuation schedule. This means that each neighbourhood can be instructed to evacuate
following a specific route and at a specific time. In addition, the staging of the evacuation guarantees the
safety of evacuees, while it avoids congestion. The presented algorithms have been successfully applied to
evacuation scenarios with more than one million evacuees.

Finally, we will demonstrate the integration of these technologies in a web-based interface, and present two
applications to the Hawkesbury Nepean floodplain (NSW) and the Otway ranges (Vic).

The contributions of this work to the disaster management community are threefold. First, the tools we
propose can greatly help emergency services and local organisations to take strategic decisions on
evacuation plans, new developments, and investments in new infrastructures. Second, they can be used to
communicate to the communities by showing the different dimensions of the disaster. Finally, they can be
used during an emergency to quickly react to changing conditions.

Mr Allen Fleckner
Principal and Asset and Operations Group Lead, Advisian

Co-author: Mr Stuart Beatton, Senior Associate, Advisian

Building Engineering Resilience into Critical Infrastructure. How Resilient are your assets?

Recent local and global natural catastrophes have demonstrated the vulnerability of infrastructure due to a
variety of disruption related events. As a result, the resilience of critical infrastructure is now firmly under
regulatory and societal scrutiny. National events such as the Black Saturday bushfires, Brisbane floods and
Morwell fire have intensified Government focus surrounding the interdependency between the reliability of
assets and the effectiveness of high consequence incident management both from an organisational and an
engineering perspective.

Industry needs to take resilience to the next level and there are increasing indications of government
intervention. One example is Victoria’s amendment to 2004 legislation which concentrated on improving
resilience to terrorist incidents. To support the State’s 2012 emergency management reform, revised
legislation is in draft which will mandate owners to assess and plan for the resilience of their assets against
all hazards. Understanding the criticality of assets and their resilience to mitigate catastrophic events is vital
if adequate emergency risk mitigation is to be achieved.

In parallel to the need to improve resilience, owners and operators are becoming more aware of the benefits
that a resilience based holistic asset management approach can achieve in terms of greater margins from
aligning organisational functions, asset management culture and increasing focus on outcomes that create
benefits and competitive advantage. Industry wants to reach a status where there will be no need for heroes
to save the day when critical equipment failure occurs

ISO 55001 is the new standard for Asset management. ISO 55001 can supply an effective platform for control
mechanisms, guidance on creating, implementing and maturing asset management strategies as well as
provide the required assurance that resilience has been achieved and is being maintained.

Mr Ryan Fraser
Research Manager, CSIRO

Co-authors: Mr Hendra Wijaya, Software Engineer, CSIRO
Ms Bella Robinson, Senior Software Engineer, CSIRO
Mr Robert Power, Team Leader CSIRO
Mr Michael Kearney, Project Leader, CSIRO
Mr Paul Box, Research Consultant, CSIRO

A System of Systems Dashboard for Disaster Management

The management of disasters in Australia involves numerous agencies such as first responders, crisis
coordinators, the not for profit sector and federal, state, and local governments. Shared situational
awareness recognises that people work as members of a team, not as individuals and it is necessary for
these groups of teams to collaborate efficiently and effectively in all phases of the disaster lifecycle:
prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR).

This can only be achieved through access to timely, accurate and authoritative information which must be
shared to establish a common operating picture for the responsible agencies to help the affected
community. In summary, information sharing enhances decision making.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions are required for this however there are a
number of issues yet to be resolved. These mostly concern issues of discovering, accessing, interpreting,
transforming and integrating multiple data formats, structures and semantics to achieve information
integration. Perhaps more significant are the social and cultural challenges relating to policy, governance,
institutional arrangements and business practices.

We present a pilot activity currently underway in CSIRO to build a system of systems for disaster
management. The system provides the ability to link, integrate, process and deliver a wide variety of
information based on our previous work in numerous disaster management projects. The system uses
geospatial information and tools as a platform for integration and analysis, leveraging increasingly open and
web accessible geospatial data such as open standards from W3C and OGC together with linked data and
semantic technologies.

Mr Don Garlick
Manager: Emergency Management, Ballarat Health Services

Failure to Engage: Emergency Evacuation Planning for Vulnerable People

In any emergency it is recognised that socially vulnerable individuals experience considerably worse
outcomes when compared with their neighbours. Following the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires one of the
recommendations of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (VBRC) was to develop a system that
ensured effective emergency evacuation planning for vulnerable members of the community. This
presentation summarises the findings of my pilot research project which examined the perceptions of three
connected groups of key stakeholders with regards to the implementation of the Vulnerable People in
Emergencies (VPE) policy at a local level. These groups were: Municipal Emergency Management Planning
committee members (identified in the VPE policy as being responsible for emergency planning for their local
community with an emphasis on vulnerable people); community program staff (identified in the policy as
being responsible for the identification and registration of vulnerable clients or alternatively to provide them
with emergency planning support); and a group of potentially vulnerable community care clients.

The findings clearly demonstrate wide variations between the assumptions of the three groups in regards to
issues such as emergency evacuation planning, evacuation triggers and assistance for vulnerable people
during emergencies.

It is concluded that emergency management agencies need to directly engage with vulnerable people to
assist them with the development of meaningful personal emergency evacuation plans. The results of this
study indicate that by delegating this planning to third parties such as community health care workers, and
by ultimately limiting the pool of registered vulnerable people to a minute number of marginally
independent older adults, the VPE policy has limited effectiveness for the majority of vulnerable people and
has therefore failed to deliver on the original intent of the VBRC’s recommendation.

Ms Amanda Gaskill
Regional Relief and Recovery Coordinator, NWMR Collaboration / Nillumbik Shire Council

Co-author: Mrs Tina Georgiev, Regional Relief and Recovery Coordinator, NWMR Collaboration / Nillumbik
Shire Council

Local Government EM capacity 'built from the ground up'

EM Capacity built from the ground up the Value of the North West Metropolitan Region Collaboration
Project

The North-West Metropolitan Region (NWMR) Collaboration Project (now in its 3rd year) has created
extraordinary value for its members, emergency service organisations and community service organisations.

Sprung from the simple recognition that large-scale emergency events can quickly overwhelm a single
council, particularly following the Black Saturday February 2009 fires. This project was initiated to develop
innovative, effective and standardised practices across 14 municipal councils. The aim was to empower
councils to collaborate on planning and preparing for emergencies and support each other in a way that was
more flexible and responsive than the state apparatus.

The initiatives and innovative ideas proposed by the councils quickly gained substantial support and on-going
collaboration from Victoria Police, SES, DHS, Red Cross and Victorian Council of Churches and now the newly
established government department, Emergency Management Victoria (EMV)

The first two years of this project (2013 and 2014) realised substantial changes to the way the 14 councils
plan, prepare and share resources. Working groups have been established (having representation from the
14 councils and agencies) to concentrate on specific areas of identified need. Achievements have been made
in the areas of Standard Operating Guidelines for Emergency Relief Centres, developing emergency
management training packages, ongoing recruitment of council staff to emergency relief and recovery roles
(1100+ staff have been trained to date), Post Impact Assessment (PIA) template, guidelines and training for
Environmental Health Officers and Building Surveyors, Regional Recovery Checklist and Guidelines, Regional
Heatwave & Pandemic Plan and an annual collaborative and multi-agency regional exercise (500+)
participants.

The success of this project is that it is driven by a bottom-up approach with practices developed at the level
where the arrangements will work best. By working collectively, the project has shown how Local
Government capacity and capability can be substantially increased.

This presentation will discuss the steps that lead the project to fundamentally reframe the problem of how
do we mobilise resources, how do we increase knowledge and capability and how can we be proactive and
not reactive and to answer these questions what are the enablers that have enabled us to be successful.

A/Prof Lisa Gibbs
Deputy Director, Jack Brockhoff Child Health & Wellbeing Program, University of Melbourne

Social ties matter: experiencing and recovering from bushfires

Building understanding of resilience risk and protective factors helps to guide the development and delivery
of disaster response and recovery services. This presentation will report on the findings of the Beyond
Bushfires study on the impacts of the Black Saturday disaster experience and what made a difference to
individual mental health and wellbeing afterwards.

Beyond Bushfires is a five-year study led by the University of Melbourne in partnership with a range of
providers including community, government, emergency, and service agencies. The study explores the
medium to long-term impacts of the Victorian 2009 bushfires on individuals and communities. The
communities selected for this study had a range of bushfire experiences from low impact to high impact. The
study looked at impacts on residents such as mental health, wellbeing and social connections, within
selected communities. There were over 1,000 participants who completed surveys in 2012 and were
followed up in 2014. A sub-sample of 35 participants completed in-depth interviews.

The study results show the disaster experience itself can have a direct and prolonged impact on mental
health and wellbeing, as can subsequent major life stressors such as changed accommodation, employment,
health and relationships. Age, gender and living circumstances can influence how the disaster and its
aftermath are experienced. Importantly, this means that household/family members often had different
responses to their bushfire experience.

A particularly strong finding in terms of recovery was that social ties matter. Close emotional ties, social
networks and involvement in local community groups and organisations all contribute in different ways to
resilience and recovery. An overview of all of these findings will be provided to provide insights into the
pattern of influences on resilience and recovery, and the implications for future policy and service delivery.

Ms Barb Gonda
Manager Operations Support, Qld Fire and Emergency Services

A Disaster is NOT a Critical Incident (psychologically speaking)

Traditionally, psychological support for emergency services first responders has fallen under the trauma
management principles of proactive psychoeducation and post incident psychological first aid. During
numerous Queensland disasters ranging from the many events of the 2010/11 season (TC Yasi/SE QLD
Floods etc) to Cyclone Oswald in 2013, a therapeutic opportunity has become increasingly evident.

These operational periods are often characterised as a series of critical incidents within a large critical event
or series of events, demanding durable long term operational responses from all personnel. Healthy
psychological function was essential to operational imperatives and to sustaining and maintaining the
wellbeing of personnel to achieve this. Throughout, on the ground low key psychological care and attention
became routine with the faces and personas of peer supporters and counsellors becoming integral with daily
organisational and managerial activities. The strong need to make a difference, to be included and to
belonging to the group, were considered important aspects in this.

These early subtle interventions supported healthy function. Small interventions during the response and
referrals post deployment became good practice in many cases. Counselling styled support was readily
available for operational or personal reactions, the early identification of issues and needs often allowing for
early, less critical and more timely responses. The need to feel that someone has your back; that responders
contributed to the whole and that their experiences were heard was also essential to wellbeing.

This presentation will draw from the anecdotal experience of an employee assistance psychologist as she
attended and responded to many of the events of 2010/11 and 2013 in support of volunteer and permanent
firefighters. A model for operational psychological wellbeing will be proposed to address the unseen needs
of first responders whilst deployed and operational over extended periods of time.

Ms Michelle Gonsalvez
Program Manager, Policy and Practice Support, RACGP

Co-authors: A/Prof Glynn Kelly, GP and Chair of RACGP's Disaster Network, RACGP
Mr Andy Wisheart, Business Development Manager, Healthpoint ANZ

Elevating community resilience through GP preparedness and response

GPs and practice teams are the lynchpin of Australia’s health service infrastructure. They also play a key
leadership role in their communities, especially during an emergency. It is therefore important that the
sector is prepared and able to effectively respond to emergencies - including health emergencies such as
pandemics.

To support this role, with funding from the Department of Health (DoH), the Royal Australian College of
General Practitioners (RACGP) in collaboration with Healthpoint ANZ developed a world first Emergency
Response Planning Tool (ERPT). Launched in October 2013, the ERPT guides practices through a planning
process, creating a customised emergency plan (including response, risk, business continuity and pandemic
components) for their practice.

The innovative technology used to create the ERPT is a major contributor to its success. The tool uses a
software as a service platform which is extremely agile and reliable, enabling practices to access their plan
through any computer or smart device. The ERPT, being cloud-based, alleviates user’s concerns of having to
download additional software and updates.

The ERPT has successfully engaged approximately 26% of general practices across the country, including key
Aboriginal Health service providers and practices who had previously developed their own plan. These
services now have a greater understanding of the process of all hazard emergency planning.

The collaborative work between the RACGP and Healthpoint has enabled the project team to deliver a
practical tool that supports general practices to better prepare for and respond to emergencies and
pandemics.

This session will introduce a panel of experts with first-hand experience in disaster preparation, response
and recovery in primary health, in both Australia and New Zealand. The presentation will provide an
overview of the tool and share valuable experiences in rolling out the ERPT to approximately 2000 primary
healthcare services across the country.

Mr Peter Gould
Acting Local Controller - Redland Unit, Qld State Emergency Service

The only sustainable future is we do things together

This presentation will present a way forward for Emergency Services Volunteer Organisations to work closer
together in the interest of the community and the sustainability of organisations.

A case study of how Volunteer Emergency Services Organisations supported the response to the North
Stradbroke Island Bushfires of 2013/2014 will be embedded in the presentation.

The challenges of " Lack of Time" , "Lack of Resources", "Ageing Volunteer Workforce", "Bridging the
generations of volunteers" etc will all be explored.

Mr Alasdair Hainsworth
Assistant Director Hazard Prediction, Bureau of Meteorology

Co-authors: Miss Ann Farrell, Assistant Director Weather Services, Bureau of Meteorology

Bureau of Meteorology Support for Disaster and Emergency Management

The Bureau of Meteorology has a leading role in providing support to the Disaster and Emergency
Management community. Whether it’s through the provision of meteorologists to Emergency Coordination
Centres in the jurisdictions, or the electronic provision of expert advice and products to assist in making
critical decisions, the Bureau provides support during all phases of emergency and disaster management -
prevention, preparedness, response and recovery.

In recent years, the Bureau’s capabilities to produce high resolution weather forecast products have
increased with the installation of its Next Generation Forecast and Warnings System and this will be
augmented over the next 12 months with the establishment of a new Extreme Weather Desk located in the
Bureau’s National Operations Centre.

As communication line speeds and capacities increase, the scope for the Bureau to produce more
information and provide greater support, particularly around hazards and hazard impacts, will also increase.
This presentation will outline some of the potential advances the Bureau is exploring.

Mr Paul Hargreaves
Emergency Management Inspector, Victoria Police

Extreme Temperatures: The Hidden Killer, Heatwave

Aim
Managing and influencing risk management during a Heatwave.

Content
Catastrophic impacts of heatwave are illustrated by the European heatwave of 2003.
The aggravating factors of heatwave include interruption to power and water supplies.
Heatwave predominately affects the elderly.

In 2009, extreme heatwave conditions effected Victoria, with an estimated 374 excess deaths recorded. In
2014, significant heat periods were again predicted, with higher levels of heat related casualties expected.
Consistent with the risk identified Hume Region Police operated a full control agency response, a first for a
policing region, with the intention of closely managing, coordinating and understanding the risks, impacts
and aggravating effects of heatwave. Over the ensuing period, police formed and operated an Emergency
Management Team (EMT) examining the actions around community health and major infrastructure. The
approach demonstrated the important nature of agency actions, elevating the level of scrutiny on agency
partners. A risk identified via media and the EMT was ongoing works and therefore interrupted power
supply during heatwave periods. Whilst this practice was considered essential, there was scope to increase
risk mitigation into work practices that could modify or suspend works in extreme heat. Equally,
communication with public in particular vulnerable persons and communities dictated a stronger focus.

Conclusion
The control agency influenced the international power company to modify practices during a heatwave, later
introducing heatwave guidelines. Water agencies followed suit with modified and risk based practices. With
a focus on vulnerable people and decreased power interruption during peak risk periods there was increased
benefits and reduced risk to those susceptible to heat. Whilst Victoria recorded 179 excess deaths, Hume
region did not reach the expected health impact assessment level, resulting in increased community
confidence and decreased demand on health services. The response lifted appreciation of risk management,
communication and information sharing during a heatwave.

Mr Kevin Hennessy
Group Leader: Climate variability, extreme weather and adaptation, CSIRO

Updated climate change projections for Australia

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that continued emissions of
greenhouse gases will cause further warming, sea level rise and changes in the climate system.

CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, with support from the Australian Government, have produced
updated climate change projections for Australia. Consistent with the IPCC assessment, these projections are
based on the most recent global climate model experiments and emission scenarios. Confidence ratings
based on five lines of evidence are given for each of the 21 climate variables analysed. Projections include
averages for 20-year periods centred on 1995, 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090, as well as annual, seasonal,
monthly and daily time-series for some variables.

Key findings include (1) more hot days, fewer cold days and less snow, (2) further sea level rise and oceans
acidification, (3) more extreme rainfall events, (4) less winter and spring rainfall in southern Australia, but
increased winter rainfall in Tasmania, (5) reduced soil moisture, (6) more the time in drought over southern
Australia, (7) harsher fire weather in southern and eastern Australia, and (8) fewer tropical cyclones, but a
greater proportion of severe cyclones.

The projections are supported by a detailed technical report, eight regional reports, eight brochures and five
videos. Information is available from www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au via a range of portals that
provide text summaries, interactive maps and tools, and various data download formats. Guidance material,
training and a help desk are available to enhance the uptake and appropriate use of information.

Mr Matthew Heysmand
Detecive Inspector, NSW Police Force

What do we do to enable our most junior members to lead?

The concept of Leadership is frequently used within emergency service organisations. Senior members of the
organisations are expected in times of crisis to both provide and to demonstrate leadership. During major
incidents or emergencies such as bushfires, floods and high risk incidents there is the expectation that senior
staff will provide effective leadership to the junior staff who as a rule provide the initial frontline emergency
response.

This presentation will attempt to provide a differing perspective on leadership provided by emergency
service organisations. Rather than focus on leadership at senior or emergency operations centre or
command post level, this presentation will explore and highlight the importance of leadership provided in
the field during an emergency by more junior first responders.

This is of paramount importance as when a major incident takes place our organisations front line officers as
first responders are immediately looked to by the community for information, guidance and assistance.
Whilst the more senior amongst us are leading our own people from command posts and operation centres,
the community are working on site with our most junior members and will view them as the personification
of our agencies response. The public will continue to look to them for this leadership throughout the
response phase of any incident. Hence our organisational performance will be judged primarily on the
nature of their response.

This reality leads to the question what do we do to enable our most junior members to lead?
•
Via case studies and discussion we will explore methods by which organisations can assist their more junior
staff develop leadership skills and act on those skills. It is proposed that improvements can be made via use
of mentoring programs, formalised learning, desk top exercises and development opportunities. Leadership
is a practical skill that can be developed to enhance the capability and professional reputation of any
organisation.

Leadership is a skill which, like any, can be learnt, developed and improved through drilling and rehearsal. It
is a core responsibility of all organisations to provide this development.