Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study

Page created by Maria Lawrence
 
CONTINUE READING
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers
   of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                                  An Empirical Study

PREPARED BY

Robert Richter, CFA
Philipp Rosenbach
Commissioned by Iconic Funds & Cryptology Asset Group

                                                        1
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
DISCLAIMER
    Iconic Funds GmbH is the holding company of a series of
    subsidiaries that manage and issue crypto asset investment
    products. Collectively, Iconic Funds GmbH and its subsidiaries
    are branded as “Iconic Funds.” Iconic Funds is a joint venture be-
    tween Iconic Holding GmbH and Cryptology Asset Group p.l.c.

    Cryptology Asset Group p.l.c. (ISIN: MT0001770107;
    Ticker: CAP) (“Cryptology”) is a leading European crypto
    asset and blockchain-related business model investment
    company. Founded by Christian Angermayer’s family
    office, Apeiron Investment Group and crypto-legend Mike
    Novogratz, Cryptology is the largest publicly traded holding
    company for blockchain- and crypto-based business models in
    Europe. Noteworthy portfolio companies include crypto-giant
    and EOSIO software publisher Block.one, leading HPC pro-
    vider Northern Data, commission-free online neobroker next-
    markets, and crypto asset management group Iconic Holding.

    Collectively, Iconic Funds and Cryptology are referred here-
    into as “THE PARTIES.”

    In no event will you hold THE PARTIES, their subsidiaries, or
    any affiliated party liable for any direct or indirect investment
    losses caused by any information in this report. This report is
    not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to
    buy any securities.

    THE PARTIES are not registered as investment advisors in any
    jurisdiction. You agree to do your own research and due
    diligence before making any investment decision with respect
    to securities or investment opportunities discussed herein.

    Articles and reports include forward- looking statements, esti-
    mates, projections, and opinions which may prove to be sub-
    stantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant
    risks and uncertainties beyond THE PARTIES’ control. These
    articles and reports express opinions, which have been based
    upon generally available information, field research, inferenc-
    es and deductions through our due diligence and analytical
    process.

    THE PARTIES believes all information contained herein
    is accurate and reliable and has been obtained from
    public sources. THE PARTIES believe it to be accurate
    and reliable. However, such information is presented
    “as is,” without warranty of any kind.

2
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
Executive Summary
This report analyzes the relationship between        Payment coins’ values are largely driven by
a selection of 25 leading cryptocurrencies           financial cluster data. Bitcoin’s value was
such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, and their         found to be primarily driven by its Stock-to-
underlying value drivers. It conclusively shows      flow ratio. For other coins it was found that
that the value drivers of the many different         Bitcoin movements heavily influence their
cryptocurrencies differ based on their under-        own price movements. In most cases this is
lying structure and use of a blockchain.             expected, especially for forks of Bitcoin, but
                                                     in the case of Litecoin and Monero it was
Until now, the majority of relevant research pa-     observed that GitHub and social media ac-
pers focussed on a limited selection of crypto-      tivity are strong and medium value drivers,
currencies. This report, however, analyzes a         respectively.
wide range of cryptocurrencies and their po-
tential value drivers. It is hypothesized that the   IOT was found to be driven by development
price of each category of cryptocurrencies           cluster data. Network usage is a strong
is driven by a different set of attributes. Data     driver of Chainlink, for instance. Due to
was sourced from Santiment, Quandl.com and           data limitations, it was not possible to infer
Etherscan.io and grouped into the following          the same conclusion for IOTA, however it is
clusters:                                            a reasonable assumption that IOTA is driven
                                                     by the same cluster. Furthermore, the price
• Financial: contains financial information          of Bitcoin and Ether were found to be value
  such as prices, transaction volumes or             drivers as well.
  exchange inflows and outflows
• Development: measures the develop-                 Lending: Lending coins appear to be driv-
  ment activity on each blockchain protocol          en by the financial cluster, i.e. the price of
• Social: reflects the presence of each              Ether and Bitcoin, showing overall respon-
  protocol on social media, such as Twitter          siveness to the market. Additionally, the
• Usage: reflects how widely a protocol              MVRV ratio closely tracks price. dApps are
  is in use                                          driven by the financials and the development
• Network: measures the size or sophisti-            clusters. Here, the price of Ether is a sig-
  cation of the protocols’ network                   nificant driver since it is the leading block-
                                                     chain offering smart contracts for dApps
Rather than attempting to build the ultimate pric-   (in terms of market capitalisation). GitHub
ing model for cryptocurrencies, the analysis         activity was also found to be a value driver,
relied on a visual analysis of the trends in         whereas developer activity appears to be
cryptocurrencies and their underlying value          less impactful on asset price.
drivers. The research definitively showed that
different categories of cryptocurrencies are
driven by separate fundamentals.

                                                                                                      3
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

          Research Partners

4
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                                                                                                         5
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                                               Introduction
          Recently, Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies        For example, Bitcoin is considered to be a new
          have significantly risen in value. The blockchain eco-        ‘digital gold’ and should therefore be driven by
          system is rapidly growing while institutional investors       its stock to flow ratio. Ethereum’s key feature is the
          are starting to enter the market and regulation is            ability to build dApps on top of its infrastructure,
          providing a legal framework to operate within. The            so it would be expected that ETH is driven by
          expansion of the blockchain industry, its expanding           the number of applications and smart contracts
          recognition and the rising prices of cryptocurrencies         developed within the network and their associated
          raise the question which fundamental drivers are in-          transaction fees. These relationships are investigated
          fluencing the market value and prices of cryptocurrencies.    further in this report.

          In our previous research reports, the value of including      As outlined in more detail in the following chapter,
          cryptocurrencies in a portfolio allocation and whether        this topic has been partially analyzed in a number
          traditional investment strategies are applicable to crypto-   of articles and papers which focussed on either a
          currencies were investigated. Up until now, however,          certain coin or driver. However, a wholistic empirical
          it has not been analysed what the ultimate driver of prices   analysis of the major coins and a large base of
          for this particular asset class and the cryptocurrencies      potential drivers has not been conducted yet. The
          comprising it are. This report aims to answer this question   remainder of this report is organized as follows: The
          by analysing the statistical relationship between coins       second section is intended to provide an overview
          such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP and underlying drivers.     of the most relevant literature from the academic
                                                                        and industrial sector. Section three introduces the
          The hypothesis is that there is not one unique set of         data and section four is intended to provide an
          drivers that is applicable for all cryptocurrencies.          overview of the methodology used to obtain the
          Instead, drivers are expected to depend on the                results. Section five shows the results of the statis-
          unique characteristics of the underlying protocols.           tical analysis and Section 6 concludes this report.

6
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

      Literature review
      The value drivers of cryptocurrencies are a topic that has
      received significant attention in academia and industry.
      Whilst all blockchain protocols have common features                  emphasizes that the long-term appreciation potential
      such as their immutability, automation of trust and the fact          coupled with the hedge against inflation makes crypto-
      that they are virtually impossible to shut down, cryptocur-           currencies an attractive asset for Treasury departments.
      rencies are also expected to have different value drivers
      due to differences in their protocol set-up. The opinions and         With respect to economic variables, Walther et al. (2019)
      findings are as diverse as the blockchain ecosystem itself            find that the Global Real Economic Activity Index is the best
      and each research tends to hone in on one specific value              predictor for volatility. Their conclusion is that cryptocurren-
      driver rather than looking at the system holistically.                cies are driven by global trends rather than localized ones
      The remainder of this section summarizes the analysis                 because of the global, decentralized nature of crypto-
      of cryptocurrency price behavior showing that a large suite           currencies.
      of potential value drivers has been analysed from financials
      to network infrastructure and social media.                           Considerable production costs such as the hardware
                                                                            needed, the infrastructure as well as the energy re-
      The Financial Times (2021) recently found that Bitcoin                quired to mine coins also ensure a certain price level,
      appears to be primarily driven by its Stock to Flow ratio             because the value of a cryptocurrency is unlikely to drop
      and by whether derivatives for it can be traded. Tradimo              below its production costs. Regulation is a significant
      (2021) argues that node count is a significant driver be-             driver of prices as well. Markets lacking a sufficient de-
      cause it measures the size of the network and proxies the             gree of regulation are less likely to be considered suitable
      number of active wallets. The price-to-node ratio is viewed           investments for large financial companies such as pen-
      as an indicator for strength of the community and resistance          sion or hedge funds and will therefore hamper the price of
      to crisis. The article lists additional attributes as value drivers   those assets (Tradimo, 2021).
      for cryptocurrencies, such as popularity which measures
      whether exchanges offer the coin and the number of use                Bhambhwani, et al. (2019) argues that cryptocurrencies
      cases and applications. For example, PayPal’s announce-               are fundamentally driven by two factors, namely the trust-
      ment to offer services in BTC, ETH, Litecoin and Bitcoin              worthiness of the network and their respective adoption.
      cash have signifi-cantly increased their retail exposure, and         They stipulate that both factors are long term value drivers.
      hence, their potential to increase in popularity (Das, 2020).         The authors find that computing power and the number of
      In contrast, Balcilar et al. (2017) find that trading volume is       active users are the best proxies for trustworthiness and
      not a useful predictor of Bitcoin volatility.                         adop-tion, respectively. Rathan et al (2019), on the other
                                                                            hand, find social media activity is a significant driver of the
      From an economic view these articles list inflation,                  price of cryptocurrencies. In particular, they find Twitter
      production costs and regulation as price drivers. In-                 and Google trends are meaningful drivers of prices.
      flation is assumed to be a driver because crypto-
      currencies are not subject to monetary policy set by central          The following sections build upon this research but aim to
      banks. Consequently, they are a good store of value com-              combine the findings into a wholistic model to determine
      pared to fiat currencies in inflationary periods. Das (2020)          what factor ultimately drives the value of cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                                                                               7
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

         Data
         The data for this report is sourced from a variety      was reduced based on economic understanding
         of sources, which are all described in the following:   as well as best practice. The first course of action
                                                                 was to categorize the data into different buckets,
             Santiment is an online platform providing           as shown below:
             large amounts of cryptocurrency related             • Financial: This group contains financial infor-
             data.¹ The database offers a wide range of              mation such as prices, transaction volumes or
             data sets, including financial data as well as          exchange inflows and outflows.
             development activity, social media trends and       • Development: This group measures the de-
             overall usage of the cryptocurrency universe.           velopment activity of each blockchain protocol.
                                                                     The main drivers used for this report have been
             Quandl.com is a provider of financial data              the activity on GitHub and overall developer
             including alternative investments. Quandl.com           activity.
             has several libraries related to Bitcoin,           • Social: This category reflects the presence of
             including the stock to flow of Bitcoin and              each protocol on social media, such as Twitter
             the difficulty of mining a block.                       and Google trends.
                                                                 • Usage: Whilst not an official category on
             Etherscan.io is a database containing infor-            Santiment, this bucket was created to reflect
             mation on the Ethereum network including the            how widely a protocol is used.
             number of smart contracts deployed and the          • Network: Measures the size or sophistica-
             difficulty of the network.                              tion of the network

         Depending on the coin, the number of attributes         Table 1 provides a list of drivers that were considered
         that could be sourced is large. In order to reduce      relevant in this report including their description. The
         the number of attributes to a manageable and            table also explains which of the five categories the
         meaningful size, the number of potential drivers        cryptocurrency was allocated to .

                                                                                     ¹ www.Santiment.net
                                                                                     ² The data was initially sourced at a daily frequency. Daily data
                                                                                     would maximize the data points available but is rather noisy.
                                                                                     Monthly data is less noisy in comparison but reduces the
                                                                                     number of available data points drastically. In order to strike
                                                                                     the right balance between data availability and noise reduction,
                                                                                     the analysis was conducted based on weekly data.

8
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

Table 1:

 Classification   Attribute             Description

 Development      DEV activity          This attribute measures the development activity of a project done in its public GitHub repositories.
                                        A developer's time is a relatively expensive resource (especially in crypto), so high development
                                        activity implies that:

 Development      Github activity       The attribute measures the total GitHub activity i.e. it counts all events. It is always equal
                                        or bigger than the dev activity.

 Development      Number of smart       Measures the number of smart contracts deployed and verified on the Ethereum mainnet.
                  contracts

 Development      Number of dApps       Measures the number of decentralized Apps deployed on the Ethereum mainnet.
                                        Sourced from https://www.stateofthedapps.com/stats/platform/ethereum#new

 Financial        Prices                Measures the price of the cryptocurrency in USD at close of day.

 Financial        Stock-to-Flow         Measures the scarcity of Bitcoin and is often used in the analysis of raw materials.

 Financial        Exchange inflow       The exchange inflow measures how many coins/tokens are moved from non-exchange
                                        to exchange wallets.

 Financial        Exchange outflow      The exchange outflow measures how many coins/tokens are moved from exchange
                                        to non-exchange wallets.

 Financial        Exchange balance      The exchange balance measures the difference in inflow and outflow of coins into exchanges.
                                        The usefulness of this metric comes from the fact that transactions from missing /unknown exchange
                                        wallets to missing /unknown exchange wallets cancel each other - for example the way Coinbase
                                        works makes it impossible to detect exchange wallets.

 Financial        Exchange funds flow   Returns the difference between the tokens that were deposited minus the tokens that were
                                        withdrawn from an exchange for a given coin per day.

 Financial        Exchange percent      Exchange wallet holding percent of total supply.
                  supply

 Financial        Transaction volume    This metric shows the aggregate amount of coins /tokens across all transactions that happened
                                        on the network for a given asset in an interval.

 Financial        Velocity              The metric shows the average number of times that a coin /token changes wallets each day. Simply put,
                                        a higher velocity means that a coin /token is used in transactions more often within a set time frame.

 Social           Social Dominance      Social Dominance for an asset compares the Social Volume of that asset to the combined social volume
                                        of all available assets. Social Dominance of 50 for an asset means that half of all messages/posts
                                        regarding assets are discussing exactly this asset.

 Social           Social volume         The attribute measures the total number of text documents that contain the given search term at least
                                        once. Examples of documents are telegram messages and reddit posts. If a single short telegram message
                                        includes the word crypto more than once, this message will increase the social volume of the word crypto
                                        by 1. If a long reddit post contains the word crypto 10 times, this again will increase the social volume
                                        of the word crypto by 1.

 Social           Twitter followers     Returns the historical count of twitter followers.

 Usage            Active Addresses      Active Addresses refers to the number of unique addresses that participated in transactions on a blockchain.

 Usage            Gas used              This attribute measures the 'Gas Fees' by a blockchain. When you send tokens, interact with a contract or
                                        do anything else on the blockchain, you must pay for that computation. That payment is calculated in Gas.

 Network          Difficulty            Measures the difficulty of mining the next block.

 Network          Network growth        Measures the number of addresses that have joined the network.

                                                                                                                                                       9
Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies - An Empirical Study
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

           Methodology
           The ultimate goal of the analysis is     is to establish – on a univariate basis
           to determine which drivers explain       – which attributes are economically
           the price movements in cryptocur-        intuitive drivers that are supported
           rencies best. Various options exist      by underlying data as value drivers.
           to analyse the data, and the author
           opted for a univariate approach.         Note that “soft” indicators such as
           Rather than attempting to build multi-   regulation were deliberately left out
           variate models that may or may           of this analysis because regulation
           not work depending on the type           is applied at the national level
           of model, the focus is placed on         whereas cryptocurrencies operate
           first identifying which characteristic   globally. Since there is no unified
           seems to be driving a coin’s price       global cryptocurrency regulation, it
           movement.                                would not have been possible to
                                                    accurately predict the impact natio-
           In other words, instead of using a       nal regulation has on the market.
           brute force approach to build a sta-     The following section shows the results
           tistical model, the aim of this report   of the analysis.

10
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                                                                                                         11
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

         Results
         This section outlines the results of the univariate analysis. For the
         interest of the reader, charts are provided which show the direct
         relationship between the price of the cryptocurrency and the potential
         value driver. This section focusses on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Compound
         (ERC-20 token), XRP and the Binance coin to outline the approach.
         Towards the end of the section the analysis is summarized for all the
         coins analyzed in scope of this report.

         Bitcoin
         Bitcoin is the largest and most well-      price level started to increase in the              Difficulty: The difficulty to mine Bit-
         known of all cryptocurrencies. Many        following months. After the halving                 coin has significantly increased since
         articles have been written about its       event in May 2020, the price level                  2017. As the chart shows, the price
         potential value drivers and many           also rose in the following months.                  of Bitcoin has not reflected the in-
         experts consider Bitcoin as a digital      Since market liquidity was low in                   creased difficulty.
         gold, which is why the stock-to-flow       the first few years of Bitcoin, only the
         model is hypothesized to be a key          past two halvings provide meaningful                Developer Activity: Developer
         driver. The results of the analysis of     information. Since the last halving                 activity was rather volatile in the
         potential Bitcoin value drivers are        occurred in 2020, the time-horizon                  past. Particularly, the price increase
         shown in Figure 1.                         was not sufficiently long and therefore             of December 2017 was not met with
                                                    will require further research to con-               increased developer activity. How-
         Stock-to-Flow: Bitcoin is regularly        cretely prove the stock-to-flow model               ever, prior to the most recent increase,
         compared to gold, due to its inherent      as the main driver of the Bitcoin price.            developer activity has risen.
         scarcity. Modelling the value of Bit-
         coin akin to gold was first suggested      Active Addresses: The plot of active                Social Dominance: The dominance
         by Twitter personality Plan B (2019),      Bitcoin addresses against the Bitcoin               of Bitcoin on social media appears to
         who used the stock-to-flow approach        price is shown in the top right panel               have decreased over the past years.
         to analyse the value of Bitcoin. The       of Figure 1. It shows a steady increase             This is unsurprising given that other
         top left panel of Figure 1 compares        in active addresses over the years. The             coins, such as Ether and XRP, have
         the price evolution of Bitcoin and its     number of active addresses closely                  entered the market. The trend in social
         stock-to-flow ratio.³ The step-chang-      tracks the price until mid-2020, but it             dominance does not appear to be in
         es in the stock-to-flow ratio are driven   does not explain the recent spike in the            line with price movements.
         by Bitcoin halvings. The theory sug-       Bitcoin price.
         gests that the price of Bitcoin should
         increase as the stock-to-flow ratio in-
         creases, making Bitcoin more scarce.
         The data does indeed show evidence                                 ³ The stock to flow ratio was calculated based on mined bitcoins. The bitcoins mined
                                                                            on a daily basis represent the flow, whereas the existing stock of bitcoin represent the
         of this behavior and the stock-to-flow                             stock. In order to align with Plan B (2019), the daily mined volume was multiplied by
         ratio appears to be a leading driver                               a factor of 365 to represent the annual volume. The graph shows a 3-day moving
                                                                            average to reduce volatility. The data was sourced from Quandl.com
         of the price of Bitcoin. After the price
         jumped in August 2016, the average

12
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

Figure 1: Bitcoin Drivers₄

Bitcoin Price vs. Stock-to-Flow                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Bitcoin Price vs. Active Addresses

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     45                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1.4
                                      45                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     40
                                      40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          40                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     35
                                      35                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           35
Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Active Addresses in Millions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     30
                                      30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Stock-to-Flow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     25
                                      25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.6
                                      20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15
                                      15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10
                                      10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
                                       5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                       0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                           Mar 13
                                                    Aug 13
                                                             Nov 13
                                                                      Mar 14
                                                                               Aug 14
                                                                                        Nov 14
                                                                                                 Mar 15
                                                                                                          Aug 15
                                                                                                                   Nov 15
                                                                                                                            Mar 16
                                                                                                                                     Aug 16
                                                                                                                                              Nov 16
                                                                                                                                                       Mar 17
                                                                                                                                                                Aug 17
                                                                                                                                                                         Nov 17
                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 18
                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aug 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nov 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov 20
                                                      Closing Price                          Stock-to-Flow                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Closing Price                          Active Addresses

Bitcoin Price vs. Difficulty                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Bitcoin Price vs. Developer Activity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,5E+13                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               45
                                      45                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                40
                                      40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,0E+13                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               35
                                      35                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           35
 Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                30
                                      30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Developer Activity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,5E+13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25
                                      25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Difficulty

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                20
                                      20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,0E+13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15
                                      15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                10
                                      10                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0,5E+12                                                                  10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5
                                       5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                       0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                           Mar 13
                                                    Aug 13
                                                             Nov 13
                                                                      Mar 14
                                                                               Aug 14
                                                                                        Nov 14
                                                                                                 Mar 15
                                                                                                          Aug 15
                                                                                                                   Nov 15
                                                                                                                            Mar 16
                                                                                                                                     Aug 16
                                                                                                                                              Nov 16
                                                                                                                                                       Mar 17
                                                                                                                                                                Aug 17
                                                                                                                                                                         Nov 17
                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 18
                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aug 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nov 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug 20
                                                      Closing Price                          Difficulty                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Closing Price                          DEV Activity                                                                                                                                                 Nov 20

Bitcoin Price vs. Social Dominance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    120
                                      45
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4 Note: This report was written as part of an analysis of fundamental value drivers
                                      40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    100                                                           of cryptocurrencies. Accordingly, value drivers that are clearly not fundamental in
                                      35                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          nature have been excluded. An example would be the current price fluctuation of the
Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands

                                      30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    80                                                            Dogecoin. This currency, introduced to the world in 2018, has seen temporary price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Social Dominance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  gains of over 100% per day due to a pump and dump scheme by an internet commu-
                                      25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60                                                            nity. Since these fluctuations are not attributable to any fundamental driver,
                                      20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the have not been included in this report.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    40
                                      15

                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20

                                       5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                       0
                                           Mar 13
                                                    Aug 13
                                                             Nov 13
                                                                      Mar 14
                                                                               Aug 14
                                                                                        Nov 14
                                                                                                 Mar 15
                                                                                                          Aug 15
                                                                                                                   Nov 15
                                                                                                                            Mar 16
                                                                                                                                     Aug 16
                                                                                                                                              Nov 16
                                                                                                                                                       Mar 17
                                                                                                                                                                Aug 17
                                                                                                                                                                         Nov 17
                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 18
                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 20

                                                      Closing Price                          Social Dominance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  13
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

         Ethereum
         The key selling point of the Ethereum     Number of Smart Contracts: The              Transaction volume and social
         blockchain is that decentralized apps     number of verified smart contracts ex-      dominance do not appear to have
         (dApps) can be built on top of it to      hibits interesting behavior as shown        a meaningful impact on the price
         facilitate new functionality and new      in the middle left panel of Figure 2.       movements of Ethereum.
         business models. Unlike Bitcoin the       During the so-called “crypto winter”
         strategy is not to create value through   it appeared to be a lagging indica-
         scarcity, but rather through an ever-     tor whereas during the most recent
         expanding network. Consequently,          price increase, towards the end of
         the potential drivers differ to those     2020, it appears to be a leading in-
         of Bitcoin and are outlined in Figure     dicator. In any case, the time series
         2. Note that this analysis also serves    exhibits a similar pattern as the price
         as a proxy for other blockchains          of Ethereum and thus appears to be
         with similar characteristics, such as     a reasonably good price predictor.
         Polkadot, Cardano or Tron.
                                                   Active Addresses: The number of active
         Number of dApps: The top left             users of the Ethereum chain also ap-
         panel shows the number of dApps           pear to drive prices. As shown over time,
         developed on the Ethereum block-          the evolution of the number of active
         chain over time. Comparing the            users closely mirrors price movements.
         number of contracts developed to
         the price behavior of Ethereum            Difficulty: The difficulty is shown in
         shows that the number of contracts        the top right panel of Figure 2. The
         is a lagging indicator rather than a      time series moves in line with the price
         leading one. The number of dApps          movements to some extent, but less
         created only increased significantly      so compared to the number of smart
         after the price spike of 2017.            contracts and active addresses.

14
Ethereum Closing Price                                                                                                                                   Ethereum Closing Price                                                                                                                                      Bitcoin Closing Price

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1200

                                     0
                                         200
                                                    400
                                                               600
                                                                          800
                                                                                     1000
                                                                                             1200
                                                                                                         1400
                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  200
                                                                                                                                                                                                             400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1400
                            Jul 15                                                                                                                                                   Jul 15                                                                                                                                                Apr 15
                          Sep 15                                                                                                                                                   Sep 15                                                                                                                                                   Jun 15
                          Nov 15                                                                                                                                                   Nov 15                                                                                                                                                  Aug 15
                           Jan 16                                                                                                                                                   Jan 16                                                                                                                                                 Oct 15
                          Mrz 16                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 16                                                                                                                                                  Dec 15
                          Mai 16                                                                                                                                                   Mai 16                                                                                                                                                  Feb 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Closing Price

     Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                        Closing Price
                            Jul 16                                                                                                                                                   Jul 16
                          Sep 16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr 16
                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep 16
                          Nov 16                                                                                                                                                   Nov 16                                                                                                                                                   Jun 16
                           Jan 17                                                                                                                                                   Jan 17                                                                                                                                                 Aug 16
                          Mrz 17                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 17                                                                                                                                                  Oct 16
                          Mai 17                                                                                                                                                   Mai 17                                                                                                                                                  Dec 16
                            Jul 17                                                                                                                                                   Jul 17                                                                                                                                                Feb 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           New dApps
                          Sep 17                                                                                                                                                   Sep 17                                                                                                                                                  Apr 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Figure 2: Ethereum Drivers

                          Nov 17                                                                                                                                                   Nov 17                                                                                                                                                   Jun 17
                            an 18

     Transaction Volume
                                                                                                                                                                                     an 18                                                                                                                                                 Aug 17
                          Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                  Oct 17

                                                                                                                                                        Verified Smart Contracts
                          Mai 18                                                                                                                                                   Mai 18
                            Jul 18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec 17
                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ethereum Price vs. New dApps

                          Sep 18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb 18
                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep 18
                          Nov 18                                                                                                                                                   Nov 18                                                                                                                                                  Apr 18
                           Jan 18                                                                                                                                                   Jan 18                                                                                                                                                  Jun 18
                          Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                  Aug 18
                          Mai 18                                                                                                                                                   Mai 18                                                                                                                                                  Oct 18
                            Jul 18                                                                                                                                                   Jul 18                                                                                                                                                Dec 18

                                                                                                                Ethereum Price vs. Transaction Volume
                          Sep 18                                                                                                                                                   Sep 18                                                                                                                                                  Feb 19
                          Nov 18                                                                                                                                                   Nov 18                                                                                                                                                  Apr 19
                            an 19                                                                                                                                                    an 19                                                                                                                                                  Jun 19
                          Mrz 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Ethereum Price vs. Verified Smart Contracts
                                                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 19                                                                                                                                                  Aug 19
                          Mai 19                                                                                                                                                   Mai 19
                            Jul 19                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct 19
                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul 19
                          Sep 19                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec 19
                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep 19
                          Nov 19                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb 20
                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov 19
                           Jan 20                                                                                                                                                   Jan 20                                                                                                                                                 Apr 20
                          Mrz 20                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 20                                                                                                                                                   Jun 20
                          Mai 20                                                                                                                                                   Mai 20                                                                                                                                                  Aug 20
                            Jul 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct 20
                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul 20
                          Sep 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec 20
                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep 20
                          Nov 20
                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov 20                                                                                                                                                   Feb 21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        120
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     140
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              160

                                     0
                                         5
                                               10
                                                       15
                                                               20
                                                                     25
                                                                                30
                                                                                     35
                                                                                            40
                                                                                                    45
                                                                                                          50
                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3-0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4.0
                                                    Transaction Volume in Millions                                                                                                                                Verified Smart Contracts                                                                                                                                         New dApps

                                                          Ethereum Closing Price                                                                                                                                   Ethereum Closing Price                                                                                                                                     Ethereum Closing Price

                                     0
                                         200
                                                    400
                                                               600
                                                                          800
                                                                                     1000
                                                                                             1200
                                                                                                         1400
                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  200
                                                                                                                                                                                                             400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1400

                            Jul 15                                                                                                                                                   Jul 15                                                                                                                                                  Jul 15
                          Sep 15                                                                                                                                                   Sep 15                                                                                                                                                  Sep 15
                          Nov 15                                                                                                                                                   Nov 15                                                                                                                                                  Nov 15
                           Jan 16                                                                                                                                                   Jan 16                                                                                                                                                  Jan 16
                          Mrz 16                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 16                                                                                                                                                  Mrz 16
                          Mai 16                                                                                                                                                   Mai 16                                                                                                                                                  Mai 16

     Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                        Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Closing Price

                            Jul 16                                                                                                                                                   Jul 16                                                                                                                                                  Jul 16
                          Sep 16                                                                                                                                                   Sep 16                                                                                                                                                  Sep 16
                          Nov 16                                                                                                                                                   Nov 16                                                                                                                                                  Nov 16
                           Jan 17                                                                                                                                                   Jan 17                                                                                                                                                  Jan 17
                          Mrz 17                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 17                                                                                                                                                  Mrz 17
                          Mai 17                                                                                                                                                   Mai 17                                                                                                                                                  Mai 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Difficulty

                            Jul 17                                                                                                                                                   Jul 17                                                                                                                                                  Jul 17
                          Sep 17                                                                                                                                                   Sep 17                                                                                                                                                  Sep 17
                          Nov 17                                                                                                                                                   Nov 17                                                                                                                                                  Nov 17

                                                                                                                                                        Active Addresses

     Social Dominance
                            an 18                                                                                                                                                    an 18                                                                                                                                                   an 18
                          Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                  Mrz 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ethereum Price vs. Difficulty

                          Mai 18                                                                                                                                                   Mai 18                                                                                                                                                  Mai 18
                            Jul 18                                                                                                                                                   Jul 18                                                                                                                                                  Jul 18
                          Sep 18                                                                                                                                                   Sep 18                                                                                                                                                  Sep 18
                          Nov 18                                                                                                                                                   Nov 18                                                                                                                                                  Nov 18
                           Jan 18                                                                                                                                                   Jan 18                                                                                                                                                  Jan 18
                          Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 18                                                                                                                                                  Mrz 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Ethereum Price vs. Active Addresses

                          Mai 18                                                                                                                                                   Mai 18

                                                                                                                Ethereum Price vs. Social Dominance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mai 18
                            Jul 18                                                                                                                                                   Jul 18                                                                                                                                                  Jul 18
                          Sep 18                                                                                                                                                   Sep 18                                                                                                                                                  Sep 18
                          Nov 18                                                                                                                                                   Nov 18                                                                                                                                                  Nov 18
                            an 19                                                                                                                                                    an 19                                                                                                                                                   an 19
                          Mrz 19                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 19                                                                                                                                                  Mrz 19
                          Mai 19                                                                                                                                                   Mai 19                                                                                                                                                  Mai 19
                            Jul 19                                                                                                                                                   Jul 19                                                                                                                                                  Jul 19
                          Sep 19                                                                                                                                                   Sep 19                                                                                                                                                  Sep 19
                          Nov 19                                                                                                                                                   Nov 19                                                                                                                                                  Nov 19
                           Jan 20                                                                                                                                                   Jan 20                                                                                                                                                  Jan 20
                          Mrz 20                                                                                                                                                   Mrz 20                                                                                                                                                  Mrz 20
                          Mai 20                                                                                                                                                   Mai 20                                                                                                                                                  Mai 20
                            Jul 20                                                                                                                                                   Jul 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul 20
                          Sep 20                                                                                                                                                   Sep 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep 20
                          Nov 20                                                                                                                                                   Nov 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 20

                                     0
                                          10
                                                     20
                                                                30
                                                                           40
                                                                                      5
                                                                                                 60
                                                                                                          70
                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3-0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5.0

                                                            Social Dominance                                                                                                                            Active Addresses in Hundred Thousands                                                                                                                                           Difficulty

15
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

Figure 3: ERC20 Compound

Compound Price vs. Active Addresses
                                                                                                                 ERC20 Token – Compound
                         300                                               6                                     Since Ethereum offers the opportunity
                                                                                                                 to create ERC20 tokens on its mainnet,
                         250                                               5
                                                                                                                 the question arises what drives the val-
                                                                                                                 ue of these tokens? This example dis-

                                                                                Active Addresses in Thousands
                                                                           4
Compound Closing Price

                         200

                                                                                                                 cusses the token Compound (COMP)
                         150                                               3
                                                                                                                 but is likely applicable to a range of
                         100                                               2                                     ERC20 tokens. The results are present-
                                                                                                                 ed in Figure 3 below.
                          50                                               1

                           0                                               0                                     Active Addresses: Whilst it must
                                                                                                                 be borne in mind that the number of
                                 19 Jun 20
                                26 Jun 20
                                 03 Jul 20
                                 10 Jul 20
                                  17 Jul 20
                                 24 Jul 20
                               07 Aug 20
                               14 Aug 20
                               21 Aug 20
                               28 Aug 20
                               04 Sep 20
                                11 Sep 20
                                18 Sep 20
                               25 Sep 20
                               02 Oct 20
                               09 Oct 20
                                16 Oct 20
                                23 Oct 20
                               30 Oct 20
                               06 Nov 20
                               13 Nov 20
                               20 Nov 20
                               27 Nov 20
                               04 Dec 20
                                11 Dec 20
                                18 Dec 20
                               25 Dec 20
                                 01 Jan 21
                                 08 Jan 21
                                 15 Jan 21
                                 22 Jan 21

                                                                                                                 data points is limited – due to the fact
                               Closing Price   Active Addresses
                                                                                                                 that Compound was only launched
                                                                                                                 in 2020 – there is only limited co-
Compound Price vs. Ethereum Closing Price                                                                        movement between its closing price
                                                                                                                 and the number of active addresses.
                         300                                            1.400

                                                                        1.200
                                                                                                                 Ethereum: Akin to Stober & Prof. Dr.
                         250
                                                                                                                 Sandner (2020) it was hypothesized
                                                                        1.000
                                                                                                                 that the ERC20 token moves in line
Compound Closing Price

                         200
                                                                                Ethereum Closing Price

                                                                         800
                                                                                                                 with the Ethereum price, where the
                         150
                                                                         600                                     Ethereum price reflects the market. As
                         100
                                                                         400
                                                                                                                 shown price movements are in line,
                                                                                                                 particularly the sharp increase in Q4
                          50                                             200
                                                                                                                 of 2020.
                                                                           0
                           0

                                                                                                                 Transaction volume does not appear
                                 19 Jun 20
                                26 Jun 20
                                 03 Jul 20
                                 10 Jul 20
                                  17 Jul 20
                                 24 Jul 20
                               07 Aug 20
                               14 Aug 20
                               21 Aug 20
                               28 Aug 20
                               04 Sep 20
                                11 Sep 20
                                18 Sep 20
                               25 Sep 20
                               02 Oct 20
                               09 Oct 20
                                16 Oct 20
                                23 Oct 20
                               30 Oct 20
                               06 Nov 20
                               13 Nov 20
                               20 Nov 20
                               27 Nov 20
                               04 Dec 20
                                11 Dec 20
                                18 Dec 20
                               25 Dec 20
                                 01 Jan 21
                                 08 Jan 21
                                 15 Jan 21
                                 22 Jan 21

                                                                                                                 to significantly influence Compound’s
                               Closing Price   Ethereum Closing Price
                                                                                                                 closing price.

Compound Price vs. Transaction Volume
                                                                                                                 Ripple XRP
                         300                                              2.5                                    As Trading Education (2021) pointed out,
                                                                                                                 XRP differentiates itself from Bitcoin,
                         250                                              2.0
                                                                                                                 Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies
                                                                                                                 through its centralisation. Whilst most cur-
                                                                                Transaction Volume in Millions
Compound Closing Price

                         200
                                                                          1.5
                                                                                                                 rencies are based on decentralisation,
                         150
                                                                          1.0
                                                                                                                 Ripple is centralized amongst key players
                         100                                                                                     of the financial industry. Rather than trying
                                                                          0.5                                    to disintermediate banks entirely, XRP aims
                          50
                                                                                                                 to reduce transaction costs within the finan-
                           0
                                                                           0                                     cial services industry. Therefore the price of
                                                                                                                 XRP is likely driven by its uptake in industry.
                                 19 Jun 20
                                26 Jun 20
                                 03 Jul 20
                                 10 Jul 20
                                  17 Jul 20
                                 24 Jul 20
                               07 Aug 20
                               14 Aug 20
                               21 Aug 20
                               28 Aug 20
                               04 Sep 20
                                11 Sep 20
                                18 Sep 20
                               25 Sep 20
                               02 Oct 20
                               09 Oct 20
                                16 Oct 20
                                23 Oct 20
                               30 Oct 20
                               06 Nov 20
                               13 Nov 20
                               20 Nov 20
                               27 Nov 20
                               04 Dec 20
                                11 Dec 20
                                18 Dec 20
                               25 Dec 20
                                 01 Jan 21
                                 08 Jan 21
                                 15 Jan 21
                                 22 Jan 21

                                                                                                                 Which driver is most aligned with the XRP
                               Closing Price   Transaction Volume
                                                                                                                 price movements is shown in Figure 4.

16
XRP Closing Price                                                                                                                     XRP Closing Price                                                                                                                        XRP Closing Price

                                       0
                                                     0,5
                                                                1
                                                                        1,5
                                                                                    2
                                                                                           2,5
                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                             3,5
                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                              0,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3,5
                             Aug 13                                                                                                                                             Aug 13                                                                                                                                 Aug 13
                             Nov 13                                                                                                                                             Nov 13                                                                                                                                 Nov 13
                              Feb 14                                                                                                                                             Feb 14                                                                                                                                 Feb 14
                             May 14                                                                                                                                             May 14                                                                                                                                 May 14
                             Aug 14                                                                                                                                             Aug 14                                                                                                                                 Aug 14

            Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                         Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Closing Price
                             Nov 14                                                                                                                                             Nov 14                                                                                                                                 Nov 14
                              Feb 15                                                                                                                                             Feb 15                                                                                                                                 Feb 15
                             May 15                                                                                                                                             May 15                                                                                                                                 May 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Figure 4: XRP Drivers
                             Aug 15                                                                                                                                             Aug 15                                                                                                                                 Aug 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Bitcoin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       XPR Price vs. Bitcoin
                             Nov 15                                                                                                                                             Nov 15                                                                                                                                 Nov 15

              DEV Activity
                              Feb 16                                                                                                                                             Feb 16                                                                                                                                 Feb 16

                                                                                                                                                           Active Addresses
                             May 16                                                                                                                                             May 16                                                                                                                                 May 16
                             Aug 16                                                                                                                                             Aug 16                                                                                                                                 Aug 16
                             Nov 16                                                                                                                                             Nov 16                                                                                                                                 Nov 16
                              Feb 17                                                                                                                                             Feb 17                                                                                                                                 Feb 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    XRP Price vs. Active Addresses
                             May 17                                                                                                                                             May 17                                                                                                                                 May 17
                             Aug 17                                                                                                                                             Aug 17                                                                                                                                 Aug 17

                                                                                                                    XPR Price vs. Development Activity
                             Nov 17                                                                                                                                             Nov 17                                                                                                                                 Nov 17
                              Feb 18                                                                                                                                             Feb 18                                                                                                                                 Feb 18
                             May 18                                                                                                                                             May 18                                                                                                                                 May 18
                             Aug 18                                                                                                                                             Aug 18                                                                                                                                 Aug 18
                             Nov 18                                                                                                                                             Nov 18                                                                                                                                 Nov 18
                              Feb 19                                                                                                                                             Feb 19                                                                                                                                 Feb 19
                             May 19                                                                                                                                             May 19                                                                                                                                 May 19
                             Aug 19                                                                                                                                             Aug 19                                                                                                                                 Aug 19
                             Nov 19                                                                                                                                             Nov 19                                                                                                                                 Nov 19
                              Feb 20                                                                                                                                             Feb 20                                                                                                                                 Feb 20
                             May 20                                                                                                                                             May 20                                                                                                                                 May 20
                             Aug 20                                                                                                                                             Aug 20                                                                                                                                 Aug 20
                             Nov 20                                                                                                                                             Nov 20                                                                                                                                 Nov 20

                                        0
                                                    20
                                                           40
                                                                60
                                                                        80
                                                                              100
                                                                                    120
                                                                                           140
                                                                                                 160
                                                                                                       180
                                                                                                              200
                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                                                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                                                                                                          60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  120
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             140
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       160
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              180
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  45

                                                                    Development Activity                                                                                                             Active Addresses in Thousands                                                                                                         Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands

                                                                                                                                                                                                           XRP Closing Price                                                                                                                        XRP Closing Price

                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                              0,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2,5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3,5

                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 13                                                                                                                                 Aug 13
                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 13                                                                                                                                 Nov 13
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 14                                                                                                                                 Feb 14
                                                                                                                                                                                May 14                                                                                                                                 May 14
                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 14                                                                                                                                 Aug 14

                                                                                                                                                         Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Closing Price

                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 14                                                                                                                                 Nov 14
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 15                                                                                                                                 Feb 15
                                                                                                                                                                                May 15                                                                                                                                 May 15
                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 15                                                                                                                                 Aug 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Network

                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 15                                                                                                                                 Nov 15
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 16                                                                                                                                 Feb 16
                                                                                                                                                                                May 16                                                                                                                                 May 16

                                                                                                                                                           Transaction Volume
                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 16                                                                                                                                 Aug 16
                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 16                                                                                                                                 Nov 16
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 17                                                                                                                                 Feb 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       XRP Price vs. Network Growth

                                                                                                                                                                                May 17                                                                                                                                 May 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    XPR Price vs. Transaction Volume

                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 17                                                                                                                                 Aug 17
                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 17                                                                                                                                 Nov 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 18                                                                                                                                 Feb 18

                                                           ing is observed from early 2019 on.
                                                                                                                                                                                May 18                                                                                                                                 May 18

     growth is defined as the number of new
     centralized, its value lies in the number of
                                                           to Bitcoin, XRP did not experience a

     institutions using the technology. Network
     Network growth: Since XRP is not de-
                                                           significant price increase towards the
                                                           previously peaked in 2017, but contrary
                                                           of Bitcoin and XRP. Both currencies

                                                           end of 2020. In fact a price de-coupl-
                                                           Figure 4 shows the price movements
                                                           Bitcoin Price: The top left panel of
                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 18                                                                                                                                 Aug 18
                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 18                                                                                                                                 Nov 18
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 19                                                                                                                                 Feb 19
                                                                                                                                                                                May 19                                                                                                                                 May 19
                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 19                                                                                                                                 Aug 19
                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 19                                                                                                                                 Nov 19
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 20                                                                                                                                 Feb 20
                                                                                                                                                                                May 20                                                                                                                                 May 20
                                                                                                                                                                                Aug 20                                                                                                                                 Aug 20
                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 20                                                                                                                                 Nov 20
                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                              5
                                                                                                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                                                                                                            15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              45
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  25

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Transaction Volume in Billions                                                                                                            Network Growth in Thousands

17
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

                           addresses being created on the                                  of crypto exchange tokens using                             Active Addresses: Active addres-
                           network and is therefore a suitable                             the example of Binance. Crypto                              ses behave similarly to transaction
                           measurement for uptake in the in-                               exchanges provide users the op-                             volume. This would be expected
                           dustry. It is presented in the top right                        portunity to trade on the crypto                            because active addresses are like-
                           panel. As shown, network growth                                 market, thus enabling easier market                         ly to trade, and thus, the higher the
                           and the XRP closing price closely                               access for investors. From a theo-                          number of active users, the higher
                           move together. The 2017 spike is ac-                            retical perspective, the price of ex-                       the trading volume. By visual in-
                           curately picked up and the marginal                             change coins is likely to be driven                         spection, transaction volume ap-
                           price increase in December 2020 is                              by trading volume of exchanges                              pears to be a better fit than the
                           well mirrored by network growth.                                as their business model is built on                         number of active addresses.
                                                                                           fees. The results of the analysis are
                           Active Addresses: Compared                                      shown in Figure 5.                                          Social volume does not appear to re-
                           to the network growth, the active                                                                                           late to the price of the Binance coin.
                           addresses are an inferior price                                 Transaction Volume: The transaction
                           predictor as shown in the panel. It                             volume is shown in the top left panel of                    Based on the principles outlined
                           appears that it is not the number                               Figure 5. It closely mirrors Binance’s                      above, many cryptocurrencies
                           of active users but rather the size                             peak in June 2019 and February                              and value drivers were investi-
                           of the total network that determine                             2020 and appears to be a meaning-                           gated to determine which value
                           the price of XRP.                                               ful driver. However, transaction vol-                       drivers have an impact on the re-
                                                                                           ume fails to predict the sharp price                        spective cryptocurrencies. In the
                           Transaction volume and develop-                                 increase at the end of 2020.                                interest of brevity, the results are
                           ment activity do not appear to be                                                                                           summarized in Table 2. As shown,
                           driving the price of XRP.                                       Bitcoin: In line with other coins                           the coins are grouped into dif-
                                                                                           investigated, the price of Bitcoin                          ferent categories depending on
                                                                                           appears to be a driver of the                               their characteristics. Each of these
                           Crypto exchanges -                                              Binance coin closing price. In par-                         groups is expected to be driven
                           Binance                                                         ticular the Bitcoin price explains                          by different factors, each of which
                           Over the years, multiple crypto ex-                             the movements in Binance that                               are analysed in turn.
                           changes have opened, such as Bi-                                are not explained by transaction
                           nance, Coinbase and Bitfinex. This                              volume, namely the peaks in 2018
                           section analyses potential drivers                              and December 2020.

Table 2:                                                                                      Payments                                                        IOT                  Lending

                                         Bitcoin   Bitcoin Cash   Bitcoin SV   Ripple       Stellar      Monero        Litecoin   Dash         Zcash   IOTA     Chainlink   Compound   Nexo
               Bitcoin
               Stock to Flow
Misc.

               Ethereum
               Gas used
               Developer activity
Net. Use DEV

               Github activity
               Active Addresses
               Network growth
               Difficulty
               Exchange balance
               Exchange funds flow
               Exchange inflow
               Exchange outflow
               Exchange percent supply
Financial

               Miners balance
               MV RV Ratio
               NVT Ratio
               Price vol Diff
               Transaction volume
               Velocity
               Twitter followers
Social

               Social Dominance
               Social volume

18                                       Legend    Good value driver           Medium value driver       Poor value driver        No data available
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

Figure 5: Binance Drivers

Binance Price vs. Transaction Volume                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Binance Price vs. Transaction Volume

                         4,5                                                                                                                                                                                                   8                                                            45                                                                                                                                                                                                 45

                         4,0                                                                                                                                                                                                   7                                                            40                                                                                                                                                                                                 40

                         3,5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                35                                                                                                                                                                                                 35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Bitcoin Closing Price in Thousands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Transaction Volume in Millions
                          3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 30                                                                                                                                                                                                 30
 Binance Closing Price

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Binance Closing Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5
                         2,5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25                                                                                                                                                                                                 25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
                          2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 20                                                                                                                                                                                                 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3
                         1,5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15                                                                                                                                                                                                  15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
                          1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 10                                                                                                                                                                                                  10

                         0,5                                                                                                                                                                                                   1                                                             5                                                                                                                                                                                                  5

                          0                                                                                                                                                                                                    0                                                             0                                                                                                                                                                                                  0
                               Jul 17

                                        Sep 17

                                                 Nov 17

                                                          Jan 18

                                                                   Mar 18

                                                                            May 18

                                                                                      Jul 18

                                                                                               Sep 18

                                                                                                        Nov 18

                                                                                                                 Jan 19

                                                                                                                          Mar 19

                                                                                                                                   May 19

                                                                                                                                            Jul 19

                                                                                                                                                     Sep 19

                                                                                                                                                              Nov 19

                                                                                                                                                                       Jan 20

                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar 20

                                                                                                                                                                                          May 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov 20
                                         Closing Price                       Transaction Volume                                                                                                                                                                                                            Closing Price                      Bitcoin

Binance Price vs. Active Addresses                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Binance Price vs. Social Volume

                         45                                                                                                                                                                                                   45                                                            45                                                                                                                                                                                                 140

                         40                                                                                                                                                                                                   40                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               120
                         35                                                                                                                                                                                                   35                                                            35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Active Addresses in Thousands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               100
                         30                                                                                                                                                                                                   30                                                            30
 Binance Closing Price

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Binance Closing Price

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Social Volume
                         25                                                                                                                                                                                                   25                                                            25                                                                                                                                                                                                 80

                         20                                                                                                                                                                                                   20                                                            20                                                                                                                                                                                                 60

                         15                                                                                                                                                                                                   15                                                            15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40
                         10                                                                                                                                                                                                   10                                                            10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               20
                          5                                                                                                                                                                                                    5                                                             5

                          0                                                                                                                                                                                                    0                                                             0                                                                                                                                                                                                  0
                               Jul 17

                                        Sep 17

                                                 Nov 17

                                                          Jan 18

                                                                   Mar 18

                                                                            May 18

                                                                                      Jul 18

                                                                                               Sep 18

                                                                                                        Nov 18

                                                                                                                 Jan 19

                                                                                                                          Mar 19

                                                                                                                                   May 19

                                                                                                                                            Jul 19

                                                                                                                                                     Sep 19

                                                                                                                                                              Nov 19

                                                                                                                                                                       Jan 20

                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar 20

                                                                                                                                                                                          May 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep 20

                                         Closing Price                      Active Addresses                                                                                                                                                                                                               Closing Price                      Social Volume                                                                                                                           Nov 20

                                                                                                                                                                                   dApps                                                                                                                                                                                           Exchanges

                                                                                     Ethereum                    EOS                          TRON                          Cardano                         Polkadot           Nem                                                     Neo                          Binance Coin UNUS SED LEO Uniswap                                                         Huobi                        Crypto.com
                         Bitcoin
                         Stock to Flow
Misc.

                         Ethereum
                         Gas used
                         Developer activity
Net. Use DEV

                         Github activity
                         Active Addresses
                         Network growth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Yes
                         Difficulty
                         Exchange balance
                         Exchange funds flow
                         Exchange inflow
                         Exchange outflow
                         Exchange percent supply
Financial

                         Miners balance
                         MV RV Ratio
                         NVT Ratio
                         Price vol Diff
                         Transaction volume
                         Velocity
                         Twitter followers
Social

                         Social Dominance
                         Social volume

                                                                                     Legend                      Good value driver                                              Medium value driver                            Poor value driver                                                                     No data available                                                                                                                                                           19
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

         Payments: Bitcoin is included in        growing blockchain industry as             the most prominent of which is
         this category because it was the        well as general digitalisation. This       Ethereum. The category includes
         first major cryptocurrency aiming       is best proxied by the price of            other blockchains that allow the
         to revolutionize the payments sec-      Bitcoin, so it would be expected           development of smart contracts
         tor. As shown, the payment cate-        to find Bitcoin is a value driver.         and dApps, such as EOS and
         gory includes other cryptocur-          The analysis showed that network           Cardano. It would be expected
         rencies such as Monero, Stellar         usage, measured by the number              that these coins are driven by de-
         and Ripple. Bitcoin differs from        of active addresses and network            velopment activity, such as GitHub
         these coins, as it is driven by the     growth, is indeed a value driver of        activity or developer activity. The
         Stock-to-flow model. It would be        Chainlink. Due to data limitations,        reason is that the added value of
         expected that the other coins are       it was not possible to infer the           these chains is their ability to host
         particularly driven by the usage of     same conclusion for IOTA, how-             dApps. Increased development
         the network, such as with XRP. The      ever it is a reasonable assumption         activities signal a chains’ pop-
         reasoning is that the more peo-         that IOTA is driven by the same            ularity and, theoretically, drive
         ple/companies use the network,          driver. Furthermore, the price of          price. The analysis showed that the
         the higher its value is compared        Bitcoin and Ether were found to            dApps category is heavily influ-
         to other payment networks. Fur-         be value drivers as well.                  enced by the price of Ether, since
         thermore, financial attributes such                                                this is the main blockchain offering
         as the transaction volume would         Lending: Compound and Nexo                 smart contracts and dApps (mea-
         be expected to impact price. The        were slotted to the Lending cate-          sured by market capitalisation).
         analysis showed that financial          gory. Since they are ERC20 tokens, it      GitHub activity was also found to
         drivers do not appear to move in        would be expected that the price           be a value driver, whereas develo-
         line with the prices of the coins.      of Ether is a value driver. The price      per activity appears to have less
         However, it was found that Bitcoin      of Ether is a proxy for the overall        of an impact on the price.
         movements is a strong indicator of      popularity of the Ethereum network,
         other price movements. In many          which both of these coins are part         Exchange: The exchange coins such
         cases, this should be expected,         of. The analysis showed that lend-         as Binance Coin, Leo, Uniswap
         since Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV       ing coins are indeed driven by             and Huobi would be expected
         are hard forks from Bitcoin. In the     Ether movements as well as Bitcoin,        to be driven by the usage of ex-
         case of Litecoin and Monero,            showing overall responsiveness             changes i.e. transaction volumes.
         GitHub activity is strongly linked      to the market. Additionally, the           As shown in Table 2, the value
         to price performance and, in some       MVRV ratio closely tracks the price.       drivers for the exchanges are not
         cases, social media volume was          Whilst this is to be expected, it is not   as clear-cut. However, the major-
         found to be a reasonablevalue driver.   the norm across the coins investi-         ity appear to respond to market
                                                 gated in this report.                      sentiment, proxied through Bitcoin
         IOT: IOTA and Chainlink were                                                       and Ethereum, as well as social
         categorized as IOT related coins.       dApps: The dApps category in-              media usage, in particular Twitter
         Both coins are dependent on a           cludes a range of blockchains,             followers.

20
ICONIC FUNDS & CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP: Analyzing the Primary Value Drivers of Leading Cryptocurrencies

         Conclusion
         This report analysed the drivers of a range of crypto-       Similar to ERC20 tokens, crypto exchange tokens
         currencies. The main contribution to existing literature     were found to move in line with overall market con-
         is threefold. Firstly, this analysis compared different      ditions. It was found that the Binance coin is driven
         types of coins rather than looking at several ERC20          by a combination of the Bitcoin price as well as
         tokens or just Bitcoin. Secondly this report looked at       transaction volume on Binance. This supports the
         exogenous price drivers only. Most pricing models            findings of Stober and Prof. Dr. Sandner (2020).
         investigate structures with an autoregressive compo-
         nent, which ultimately assumes that the price of a           XRP differs from the other coins investigated in this
         cryptocurrency contains information that cannot be           report because XRP is not built on decentralization.
         observed in other fundamental drivers. Thirdly most          Due to its differing structure, the price drivers were
         papers focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum or ERC20 coins             found to be unique. Whilst some of the other cryp-
         to analyse fundamental drivers. This report went             tocurrencies were driven by the number of active
         beyond this scope and analysed coins from a range            users, XRP is seemingly driven by network growth.
         of categories, namely payment, dApps, IOT, lend-             This is once more in line with expectations since
         ing and exchanges.                                           XRP is built for large financial players where the
                                                                      value depends on the number of companies using
         The analysis showed that different categories of             the network.
         coins are indeed driven by separate fundamentals.
         Bitcoin appears to be driven by its stock-to-flow            This report has conclusively shown that the value
         model. Whilst this finding is only indicative, given         drivers of cryptocurrencies differ based on their
         the limited number of halvings carried out, the aver-        underlying structure and use of a blockchain.
         age price level does seem to correlate to the stock          Future research will attempt to roll out this frame-
         to flow’s increase over time. In contrast, Ethereum is       work to other coins to test this hypothesis further and
         mostly driven by the number of verified smart con-           conduct back testing once more time-series data
         tracts on its blockchain. This finding is in line with ex-   has become available.
         pectations because Ethereum’s unique selling point
         is not scarcity, but fostering a global, open network.
         The number of dApps deployed also showed simi-
         lar correlations but failed to pick up the most recent
         Ethereum price increase. The price of ERC20 tokens
         was found to move in line with that of Ethereum itself.

                                                                                                                                21
                                                                                                                                21
“We deliver excellence, providing the quality assurances
           investors deserve from a world-class asset manager,
      as we champion our mission of driving crypto asset adoption.”

                            Patrick Lowry, CPA
                    MANAGING PARTNER, ICONIC FUNDS
                     CEO, CRYPTOLOGY ASSET GROUP

 22
22
References

Balcilar, M., Bouri, E., Gupta, R., & Roubaud,         Trading Education. (2021). What Will Drive The
D. (2017). Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and      Ripple XRP Price in 2021? Retrieved from https://
volatility? A quantiles-based approach. Economic       trading-education.com/what-will-drive-the-ripple-
Modelling (Volume 64), pp. 74-81. doi: https://doi.    xrp-price-in-2021
org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.019.
                                                     Walther, T., Klein, T., & Bouri, E. (2019).
Bhambhwani, S., Delikouras, S., & Korniotis, Exogenous drivers of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
G. (2019). The fundamental drivers of cryptocurrency volatility – A mixed data sampling approach
prices. Retrieved from VOX: https://voxeu.org/ to forecasting. Journal of International Financial
article/fundamental-drivers-cryptocurrency-prices Markets, Institutions & Money. doi: https://doi.
                                                     org/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.101133
Das, A. (2020). What’s driving the Bitcoin price?
Retrieved from Brave New Coin: https://bravenew-
coin.com/insights/whats-driving-the-bitcoin-price

Financial Times. (2021). FT.com. Retrieved 01
25, 2021, from https://www.ft.com/content/
8db6ce04-d458-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

Plan B. (2019). Modeling Bitcoin Value
with Scarcity. Retrieved from Medium.com:
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-
bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

Rathan, K., Sai, S., & Manikanta, T. (2019).
Crypto-Currency price prediction using Decision
Tree and Regression. Proceedings of the Third Inter-
national Conference on Trends in Electronics and In-
formatics (ICOEI 2019).

Stober, A., & Prof. Dr. Sandner, P. (2020). Using
On-Chain and Market Metrics to Analyze the Value
of Crypto Assets. FSBC Working Paper, pp. 1-22.

Tradimo. (2021). What determines the value of
a cryptocurrency? Retrieved from https://learn.
tradimo.com/cryptocurrencies/crypto-value/

                                                                                                           23
                                                                                                           23
Thank you for your time
               Iconic offers an array of investment strategies from venture
               to indices with unique solutions for crypto asset managers.

           The marriage of state-of-the-art technology, innovative investment
           products and uncompromising professionalism places Iconic at the
                       vanguard of crypto asset management.

     Iconic Funds GmbH
     Große Gallusstraße 18
     60312 Frankfurt                                  contact@iconicholding.com
     Germany                                          funds.iconicholding.com

24
Thank you for your time
       Cryptology Asset Group is a leading European asset manager
            for crypto assets and blockchain-based businesses.

     With key investments in established industry leaders like block.one,
   Northern Data, nextmarkets and Iconic Funds, Cryptology drives crypto
   adoption by financing the most disruptive crypto companies and assets.

Cryptology Asset Group p.l.c.
66/67, Beatrice, Amery Street,
Sliema SLM 1707                               info@cryptology-ag.com
Malta                                         cryptology-ag.com

                                                                            25
You can also read