Airline and Business Jet Pilot Demand Outlook - 10-year view 2018 Update Your worldwide - CAE
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Airline and
Business Jet
Pilot Demand
Outlook
10-year view
2018 Update
Yourworldwide
Your worldwide
trainingpartner
training partner
ofchoice
of choice
At a glance
Civil aviation pilot demand Dear aviation colleagues,
Last year, CAE released its first pilot demand outlook report amidst
concerns over the impact of increased passenger air travel on the
Pilot Population Over The Next 10 Years Business Jet Pilots Needed airline pilot pipeline. In 2018 we’ve built on that analysis, updating
the 10-year forecast and expanding the model to include business
jet pilots.
Additional Active
Business Jet
Airline
Pilots
for Growth
Pilots
in 2028
530k +50K * A positive environment persists within the civil aviation industry. All
major market indicators – from passenger traffic to fleet growth to
10K New 65K aircraft utilization – remain strong and are driving solid performances
55K Pilots Active in both the business and commercial market aviation segments.
65K Pilots
Active Needed The result, which is being felt by fleet operators around the world,
Pilots is an unprecedented demand for professional pilots and a new
160K*
urgency to develop better pilots, faster.
Active Pilot
Pilots Replacements
2018 2028 According to our analysis, by 2028 the active combined airline
and business jet pilot population will exceed half a million pilots.
40K* Furthermore, 300,000 of those pilots will be new and 215,000 will
55K
have been upgraded to captain. In the business sector, the turnover
Airline Pilots Needed of new jet pilots will reach almost 100%.
110K 465K
How will we, as an industry, manage this? By heeding the call to action.
+270K *
Increased pilot demand is motivating fleet operators and training
providers like CAE to work more closely together. Smarter pilot
305K New 465K creation that helps cadets flourish earlier and improves the likelihood
305K Pilots Active of success throughout a pilot’s career is a joint aspiration and
Active Needed Pilots
Pilots
mutual goal. Likewise, new training systems that make better use
of real-time data and analytical insights are more than a showcase
for innovation.
2018 2028 2018 2028 Today, soaring pilot demand is a reality that those of us in aviation
“
must manage. With this update, we hope to arm you with the
information needed to understand the next decade’s pilot training
needs and to share the ideas we believe are helping to create and
develop tomorrow’s professional pilots.
Pilots Needed Over the Next 10 Years Captain Upgrades Needed The result of positive market
Nick Leontidis
CAE Group President drivers is an unprecedented
+215K Civil Aviation Training Solutions
demand for professional pilots
New and a new urgency to develop
Captains
Needed
better pilots, faster.
+300k
Active
Captains
2018 2028
*Including a net 20K movement of business jet pilots to airlines
CAE analysis based on data from the following sources: FAA/Eurocontrol/Amstat/IATA/FlightGlobal/Rolland Vincent Associates Rand
CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE |3
Table
06 Part 1: Civil aviation market drivers
07 Part 2: What it means for pilot demand
of contents 08
09
New pilot demand resulting from replacements
New pilot demand resulting from growth
11 Part 3: Developing better pilots, faster
12 Smarter pilot creation
15 Better recruitment training systems
16 Tapping into a larger talent pool
Civil aviation market drivers What it means for pilot demand
Underpinning the demand for professional pilots are Market drivers influence the key variables used to project pilot
business and commercial aviation market drivers. In 2018, demand: attrition, fleet growth, and crew ratios.
the two segments are experiencing different realities.
Business aviation Commercial aviation Pilot demand is comprised of two groups of new pilots: those
Signs of improvement are evident in business aviation even Passenger traffic has increased steadily over the past de- needed to replace the ones who leave and those needed
though new jet deliveries have remained flat since 2012 at cade, outperforming IATA's expectations over the last three as a result of growth.
approximately 700 aircraft per year. Most significantly, 2018 years and reaching a record 7% year-over-year (YOY) growth
marks a year of positive year-over-year aircraft utilization rate in 2018. In both business and commercial aviation, the pilot popula-
growth with its two largest markets, the US and Europe, up 3%. tion is aging and replacements are needed to counter retire-
Doubling since before 2000, the number of unique city ments. Furthermore, in the business sector, replacements
Inventory for sale, another key business measure, has been pairs exceeded 20,000 for the first time at the end of 2017. due to retirement are exacerbated by a net loss of business
falling steadily since 2012. This year it fell by 6% and is ex- Significant YOY growth of 7% was mainly driven by new city jet pilots who leave their jobs to join airlines.
pected to bottom-out a level below 10% of the active fleet, pairs in Europe and in Asia. China, notably, added more new
a healthy sign in the industry. pairs than any other country, even more than all European Fleet growth and changing crew ratios are also driving de-
countries combined. mand. In both sectors, the number of new pilots needed
At the same time, new large jet platforms are getting ready for growth is increasing with the size of the active fleet. At
to enter the market (Bombardier Global 7500; Gulfstream Passenger load factor, a measure of an airline’s seat-filling the same time, crew ratios, i.e. the average number of pilots
500/600; Dassault Falcon 6X). Compared with small and efficiency, increased again this year by 1%, averaging just per aircraft, is also projected to keep its increase over time.
medium platforms, the large jet segment is predicted to over 81% today.
remain the fastest growing in business aviation.
Business Aviation Pilot Replacements Growth of the Pilot Population New Pilot Demand
Signs of +3% YOY -6% YOY NEW
Improvement Utilization strengthening Inventory for sale decreasing Large jet programs coming
Replacements are mainly Growth of the pilot For business jet
Commercial Aviation age
driven by pilot population is driven by the operators and
and movements active fleet growth and airlines
within the industry the evolution of crew ratios
All-Time +7% YOY >20K >81% with new fleet types and
business models
High Passenger traffic rising Direct city-pairs expanding Average load factor increasing
6 | CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE |7
New pilot demand resulting New pilot demand resulting
from replacements from growth
The number of professional 17,000 additional business
Pilot Age Distribution in 2018
pilots over the age of 50 is and commercial aircraft will
disproportionately high. join the active fleet in the
50 The 10-year average compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
steady at approximately 3% per year, translating in a need for commercial aircraft is 3.5%, and the active fleet is expected
for 110,000 new pilots over the next 10 years. to grow by 12,000 aircraft to reach 39,000 aircraft by 2028.
35-49 During the same period, crew ratios are also projected to
increase to an average of more than 12 pilots per aircraft,
By contrast in business aviation, where there is no manda-
an outcome of improved utilization.
tory age requirement, the pilot population is even older and
attrition is projected to sit at 4% per year, driving a need for
Average Average Growth is more modest in the business aviation sector,
40,000 new business jet pilots over the next decade.
Airline Business Jet though a sustained 2% CAGR will bring the active fleet to
Pilot Age Pilot Age 27,000 aircraft by 2028. The relatively lower average crew
Furthermore, the current record-level of airline pilot demand ratio will also rise, mainly due to a continued evolution
is affecting business fleet operators who will continue to face towards higher-utilization business models.
an additional average loss of 4% of their pilots who will join
45 50
airlines every year over the next decade. Overall, the fleet and crew ratios’ growth is driving the need
for 10,000 new business jets pilots and 160,000 new airline
pilots in the next decade.
Business Aviation: 55K Active Business Jet Pilots in 2018 Business Aviation: 22K Active Business Jets in 2018
+5K aircraft
4%*
Retirements / year
+ 4%
Movement to
+40k Pilots / Aircraft
+10k
airlines / year 2018 2028 2 3 4
Private Flight Flight Charter/
New pilots neederd Operators Departments Fractional New pilots needed
in next 10 years Operators
in next 10 years
Commercial Aviation: 305K Active Airline Pilots in 2018 Commercial Aviation: 27K Active Passenger Airliners in 2018
+12K aircraft
3% *
Retirements / year
+110k
Pilots / Aircraft
+160k
2018 2028 10 11 16
New pilots needed Regional Narrowbody Widebody New pilots needed
*Including other attrition (pursuit of non-flying career, loss of medical fitness, etc.) in next 10 years in next 10 years
8 | CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE |9
Developing better pilots, faster
New data sources, professional pilot competencies and
training processes are more than ever central to the set of
How will operators
questions arising from fleet operators the world-over, faced
with the need to develop better pilots faster.
Whether in the business jet or airline market, two key op-
portunities are emerging in responses to those questions:
manage this
smarter pilot creation and better recurrent training systems.
New types of partnerships between fleet operators and
training providers are also being formed to accelerate the
deployment of a new training reality.
unprecedented
demand?
“How early do we get involved and
“What’s in the DNA of a
steer the development to our own
proficient professional pilot?”
cultural and operational realities?”
“Are we adjusting the “How can we accelerate “Are we equipping our
training programs the development of the instructors with the best
fast enough?” most relevant skills?” available data?”
Smarter Better recurrent
1 pilot creation 2 training systems
10 | CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE | 11
Smarter pilot creation Classroo
New cadet selection systems and more optimized training Optimizing the training footprint
Beyond selection, pilot training is also evolving and
footprints are becoming the new norm for professional pilot becoming more accessible and cost effective for cadets More classroom
through an expanded footprint of training centers near and simulator training
creation programs. operators’ bases. Early immersion in a professional train- components in region,
closer to operator’s bases
ing environment also means ab-initio cadets thrive earlier.
Assessing and selecting the right candidates Over the last three years, CAE launched more than 10 new
Based on the most recent ICAO standards for professional pilot creation programs in partnership with European,
pilot competencies, new assessment systems have emerged Objective assessment American, and Asian airlines increasing the proportion
promising the selection of candidates that not only can become of the professional
Objective pilot
assessment of training completed in training centers, complementing
competent first officers, but have what it takes to be successful competencies at thepilot
of the professional start flying time in academies, and enabling mentorship from Earlier ab-initio pilot immersion
captains. More objective assessments as pre-requisite for competencies at the start their future employer much earlier than before. in operator’s professional
ab-initio training are being enabled. Complementing ICAO’s training environment CAE’s 6 Fligh
standard for pilot competencies, the industry is also mov- CAE’s 50+ Civ
ing towards the inclusion of the unique operators’ cultural
reality as selection criteria, enabling candidates to be even
more successful in their assigned environment. Development of the desired
pilot profiles in
Development of partnership
the desired
In partnership with fleet operators, CAE has evolved its pilotwith the operators
profiles in partnership
cadet selection system in the last five years, tuning the with the operators
requirements for professional competencies in light of the
operator’s unique profile. Through interviews, technical tests
and psychological assessments, a more rigorous selection
Communication
process performed at the very start of the training process
is proving key to improve graduation rates, reduce remedial
training and increase retention rates. Classroom Training Flight Training Simulator Training Line Flying
CAE Cadet Selection System
Communication
More classroom
Accuracy and Technical Ability and simulator training
components in region,
Leadership and Teamwork closer to operator’s bases
Problem-solving and Decision-making
Application of Procedures
Workload Management
Earlier ab-initio pilot immersion
Situational Awareness in operator’s professional
training environment CAE's 6 Flight Aviation Academies
Professional Pilot Competencies Operator’s Unique Profile Cadet’s Objective Assessment CAE’s 50+ Civil Aviation Training Centers
12 | CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE
Better recurrent training systems
The next evolution of pilot training is enabled using new
data sources.
Evolution of the Recurrent Pilot Training Framework
Practice and Improve training
Inject line Evolve to a Objectively assess
check common program using
observations competency-based competencies
maneuvers training data
and line data framework in real-time
repeatedly as evidence
The unprecedented demand for captains are driving recurrent
training programs to adapt to today’s realities, and evolve
from the first prescriptive checklists to today’s competency-
based assessments leveraging new sources of line and train-
ing data. The ability to enable future training frameworks
and to support the migration to data-based programs is an
imperative for all stakeholders in an industry where safety
is the top priority.
New recurrent training systems, monitoring individual and
group performance in real-time, are setting up operators
with a renewed understanding of proficiency gaps, allowing
targeted training program improvements and accelerated
promotions to captains.
The recently launched CAE Rise™ training system is a great
illustration of a technology innovation enabling the trans-
lation of simulator training data into valuable insights for
instructors and training managers. This new system can arm
instructors with the capability to provide objective assess-
ments of pilot maneuvers in real-time and can equip training
managers with a new level of insights of the performance
of their entire pilot pool.
CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE | 15
14 | CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE
Tapping into a larger talent pool
Beyond provoking an overdue correction, tackling diversity is
critical to the future of the aviation industry.
In 2018, the aviation industry remains startlingly masculine.
Tackling gender diversity would address a historic imbalance
while giving business jet operators and airlines access to a
talent pool nearly twice its current size. Today, women make
up only 5% of professional pilots worldwide. The same is
true of cadets in training. Unlike many other traditionally
male-dominated professions, the aviation industry is still
not attracting enough women.
While troubling, this situation also gives us a clear opportunity
to increase diversity while broadening the civil aviation talent
pool. Fleet operators, influential organizations along with
training providers such as CAE are taking action to achieve
greater diversity and a better gender balance.
Through its recently launched CAE Women in Flight scholar-
ship program, CAE will award up to five full scholarships to
exceptional women who are passionate about becoming
professional pilots and interested in becoming role models,
to inspire even more women to join the industry.
CAE will be awarding up
to 5 full scholarships to
5
Women make up Of the 360,000+ active civil pilots aspiring female pilots
%
worldwide every year to support
Of the 120,000 professional pilots
who train at CAE every year
greater diversity and a
Of the 1,500+ cadets who graduate
better gender balance
from CAE adademies every year in the aviation industry.
16
300k
| CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE
New pilots needed over the next 10 years
About CAE CAE is a global leader in training for the civil aviation, defence and security, and healthcare markets. Backed by a record of more than 70 years of industry firsts, we continue to help define global training standards with our innovative virtual-to-live training solu- tions to make flying safer, maintain defence force readiness and enhance patient safety. We have the broadest global presence in the industry, with over 9,000 employees, 160 sites and training locations in over 35 countries. Each year, we train more than 120,000 civil and defence crewmembers and thousands of healthcare professionals worldwide. www.cae.com Follow us on twitter @CAE_Inc 18 | CAE 2018 AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK UPDATE Copyright © 2018 CAE. All rights reserved.
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