Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 - Potential lives here - OMFIF
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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 Potential lives here Pictured: Grand Bai (Pereybere) Mauritius
The Absa Africa Financial Markets Absa Group Limited (‘Absa Group’) is listed on the Index was produced by OMFIF in Johannesburg Stock Exchange and is one of Africa’s association with Absa Group Limited. largest diversified financial services groups. The scores on p.7 and elsewhere Absa Group offers an integrated set of products and record the total result (max = 100) of services across personal and business banking, corporate assessments across Pillars 1-6. For and investment banking, wealth and investment methodology, see individual Pillar management and insurance. assessments and p.42-43. Absa Group has a presence in 12 countries in Africa, with OMFIF conducted extensive approximately 42,000 employees. quantitative research and data analysis. Qualitative survey data were The Group’s registered head office is in Johannesburg, collected and analysed by OMFIF. South Africa, and it owns majority stakes in banks in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, © 2021 The Absa Group Limited and Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania (Absa Bank Tanzania OMFIF Ltd. All Rights Reserved. and National Bank of Commerce), Uganda and Zambia. The Group also has representative offices in Namibia and Nigeria, as well as insurance operations in Botswana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. Absa Project Team For further information about Absa Group Limited, please Fiona Kigen, Vice-President: visit www.absa.africa Marketing, Investment Banking, Erica Bopape, Head of Marketing, Investment Banking, Andile The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is Makholwa, Vice-President: an independent think tank for central banking, economic External Communications, CIB, policy and public investment – a non-lobbying network Phumza Macanda, Group Head of for best practice in worldwide public-private sector Media Relations, Jerome Raman, exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – Communications Manager, CIB, central banks, sovereign funds and public pension funds Benedict Maaga, Head of Integrated – with investable assets of $42tn, equivalent to 43% of Communications, CIB, Varini Chetty, world GDP. With offices in both London and Singapore, Digital Lead, CIB, Gerald Katsenga, OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes Head of Corporate Sales, ARO – particularly in asset management, capital markets Markets and financial supervision/regulation – relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators and treasuries. OMFIF promotes higher standards, OMFIF Editorial, Meetings and invigorating exchanges between the public and private Marketing Team sectors and a better understanding of the world economy, in an atmosphere of mutual trust. Clive Horwood, Managing Editor and Deputy Chief Executive For further information about OMFIF, please visit Officer, Simon Hadley, Director, www.omfif.org Production, William Coningsby- Brown, Production Manager, Sarah Moloney, Subeditor, Stefan Berci, Communications Manager, James Fitzgerald, Marketing Manager, Ben Rands, Director of Events, Sasha Stileman, Events Manager, Jamie Bulgin, Relationship Director, Economic and Monetary Policy Institute, Emma McGarthy, Head of Policy Analysis, Sustainability 2 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Contents Forewords4-5 Pillar 4: Introduction6-7 Capacity of local investors Executive summary 8-11 Examines the size of local investors, assessing the level of Contains country comparisons and highlights local demand against supply of opportunities and challenges for the region’s financial assets available in each market. markets. Acknowledgements10 Highlights 12-13 30-33 Pillar 1: Market depth Pillar 5: Examines size, liquidity and Macroeconomic depth of markets and diversity opportunity of products in each market, including the availability of Assesses countries’ economic sustainable finance products. prospects using metrics on growth, debt, export competitiveness, banking sector risk and availability of macro data. 14-21 34-37 Pillar 2: Access to foreign exchange Pillar 6: Enforceability of Assesses the ease with which standard master agreements foreign investors can deploy and repatriate capital in the region. Tracks the commitment to international financial master agreements, enforcement of netting and collateral positions and the strength of insolvency frameworks. 22-25 Pillar 3: Market transparency, tax 38-41 and regulatory environment Indicators and Methodology 42-43 Evaluates the tax and regulatory frameworks in each jurisdiction, including measures to support sustainable financial markets, as well as the level of financial stability and transparency of financial information. 26-29 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 3
Forewords Jason Quinn Interim Chief Executive Officer, Absa Group Aim of index Benefiting people and planet African economies are In today’s uncertain socioeconomic climate, one constant undergoing a significant is the need globally to ensure that sustainable economic growth benefits people and the planet. Now more than period of transition and ever, governments, businesses and organisations are called upon to provide leadership that actively demonstrates a appraisal, with growing commitment to cultivating a healthy, thriving society. foreign investment The repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic and the slow interest and much pace of the vaccination roll-out continue to be a major challenge for growth on the continent. While initiatives examination of the such as the African Continental Free Trade Area are encouraging, progress needs to be faster to address many continent’s potential for of the historical challenges and provide an opportunity for mobilising local resources. Africa to build continental resilience. Now in its fifth year, As a pan-African bank, we firmly believe that financial market development can play a vital role in increasing the index has become Africa’s resilience to shocks and improve the continent’s chances of having a sustainable recovery. a benchmark for the We are extremely proud of the annual Absa Financial investment community Markets Index report, which has become a critical toolkit and Africa generally for countries seeking to strengthen their financial markets infrastructure. Now in its fifth year, the index records to gauge countries’ countries’ openness to foreign investment and is an performance across objective indicator of the attractiveness of Africa’s capital markets, intended for use by policy-makers, investors and a host of indicators asset managers around the world. important for financial At the core of AFMI is a push towards deeper financial markets that are open, transparent and accessible and market development. facilitate the mobilisation of savings towards investment in productive assets. The introduction of sustainability-focused indicators and the improved focus on green finance will ensure that the index remains an essential resource for investor, business and governance communities to gauge the performance of financial markets in Africa. We believe in the continent’s potential for growth and our partnership with OMFIF to produce this index demonstrates our commitment to investing in Africa and shaping its growth and sustainability. 4 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
David Marsh Vera Songwe Chairman, OMFIF UN Under-Secretary- General and Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa Platform for resilience Integration and co-operation When OMFIF and Absa decided to create the Africa Financial The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Markets Index in 2016, we had two principal purposes in supports the long-term development of Africa’s financial mind. The first was to develop a first-rate comparative tool markets. A robust and competitive market environment to measure African countries’ financial market progress. The builds investor confidence, stimulates job creation and second was to set benchmark objectives for improving the creates opportunities for growth. capability of financial markets to spur growth, investment The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index is a valuable tool and prosperity. for measuring progress and encouraging initiatives that The last 18 months have been difficult. The scars of 2020- enhance investment and economic expansion. The fifth 21 show clearly in the sharp fall in average scores, although edition of this index comes at a time when demonstrating some of this is due to methodological changes. But the the continent’s deep potential has become even more need for the index has never been better illuminated. Africa important, providing a useful overview of recent has built a platform for resilience, displayed in constructive advancements and innovations in countries across the detail in this year’s findings and countries’ ability to adapt region. to a world in transition. Africa responded to the Covid-19 crisis with resilience Covid-19 has had a bigger negative impact in Africa and tenacity, but challenges remain. The continent lost than elsewhere. Exacerbated social pressures, volatile many jobs during the pandemic. Governments face fiscal commodity prices, worries about rising US interest difficulties and debt pressures. Countries in the region rates and fears that Africa could be squeezed by Sino- are vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, US competition compound the challenges. On the other as demonstrated by the drought in East Africa and other hand, although individual countries have needed debt weather-related disturbances. restructuring, Africa has not had to weather a full-scale Beneath these challenges lies Africa’s inherent ability to financial crisis. surmount them. During a period of uncertainty, investor The IMF and multilateral development banks have made optimism in the region stays firm, indicating that Africa is exceptional efforts to help emerging and frontier markets still seen as a desirable region for investment. The index weather the pandemic, underlined by international and its new focus on environmental, social and governance consensus on a $650bn special drawing right allocation. factors reflect the urgency of aligning markets with broader International reserve liquidity has held up relatively well, sustainability objectives. Capital markets will have a crucial with the assets of African global public investors rising. role to play in climate action and closing investment gaps in Africa. Three positive factors shine out from the findings. First, Africa is paying more attention than ever to adapting Integration and intra-regional cooperation will continue market standards to meet the needs of international to be an important element of Africa’s path to recovery investors seeking to diversify risks. Second, deepening and prosperity. Earlier this year, trading in the African local financial markets is now universally seen as an Continental Free Trade Area began. The single continental optimal means of hedging against international economic market will expand intra-African trade and unlock industrial fluctuations. Third, African countries are embracing capacity. Similarly, efforts to integrate the region’s capital sustainable finance, incorporating international investment markets and encourage cross-border investment will boost norms and in some cases adopting pioneering methods. growth. Tracking these developments through the index is Africa’s improved financial market resilience makes the a valuable exercise, providing a meaningful assessment of continent better equipped to forge a brighter future. the continent’s progression. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 5
Pictured: Sunrise over the Masai Mara, Kenya Introduction Future-proofing Africa’s financial markets As the global economy struggles to recover from the As part of its aim to encourage progress, this year’s index worst health crisis in a century, African economies face introduces new indicators that acknowledge the role of the twin challenges of reinvigorating financial markets sustainable finance in expanding capital markets and while strengthening market infrastructure through achieving broader socio-economic goals. The introduction technological innovation and investment-enabling of sustainability-focused indicators weighs down scores, policies. The pandemic has reinforced the importance of especially for countries at a much earlier stage of market deepening domestic markets to hedge against foreign development. However, as with all indicators used across capital outflows and help the region achieve its full the index, the new measures serve as targets for countries potential. to work towards. Average scores declined to 46.4 from 50.8 last year, with In addition to a stronger, forward-looking focus on only seven countries earning above 50. Malawi, Egypt sustainability and green finance, the index recognises and Uganda are among the countries that improved the role of digital technology and innovation in future- their ranking the most. Advancements in establishing proofing Africa’s financial markets. The report highlights the enforceability of global contractual frameworks countries’ efforts to upgrade market infrastructure and lift Malawi’s and Uganda’s scores. Reforms in Egypt regulatory support for the development of technology- continue to boost its macroeconomic prospects, and its based tools. While these initiatives do not directly management of reserves has ensured its ability to meet impact scores, they demonstrate how countries can use foreign currency demand. innovation to boost local markets and build a broader investor base. While challenging market conditions affected country scores, most drops are attributed to methodological changes adopted to better reflect country performance and evolving trends in financial markets. The index, now in its fifth year, benefits from continued engagement with policy-makers, regulators, market participants and industry experts providing the latest information about developments in the region. 6 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Rank Score Country Comments 2021 2020 2021 2020 Consistently strong performance across pillars hampered by 1 1 South Africa 86 89 weak economic growth 2 2 Mauritius 70 79 Robust legal and market environment dampened by low liquidity 3 3 Nigeria 63 65 Attractive regulatory and market environment 4 6 Ghana 62 59 Strong contractual frameworks but relatively low pension assets per capita 5 10 Uganda 57 52 Large pension fund assets under management, but illiquid markets 6 4 Botswana 51 63 Market growth offset by weaker FX reserves position 7 9 Zambia 51 53 Revival in investor confidence boosted government bond market 8 5 Namibia 48 61 Liquid market and deep pension assets 9 14 Egypt 48 50 High equities turnover and strong macroeconomic performance Adoption of Global Master Repurchase Agreement expected to boost cross- 10 18 Malawi 48 37 border repo 11 7 Kenya 47 58 Progress in sustainable finance supports market development Market depth improved by wide range of sustainable financial products 12 8 Morocco 47 56 available 13 12 Tanzania 45 50 Export market growth improves macroeconomic outlook 14 13 Rwanda 43 50 Promising growth outlook and higher level of FX reserves 15 15 Eswatini 39 49 Growth in FX reserves strengthens position Improving market environment and local investor capacity despite exchange 16 11 Seychelles 38 51 rate volatility 17 16 Ivory Coast 38 43 Wider range of financial products available 18 17 Mozambique 35 43 Improvements in adopting International Financial Reporting Standards 19 19 Senegal 34 37 Strong economic growth forecast but weak market environment 20 22 Angola 33 30 Floating exchange rate and minimal intervention aid response to shocks 21 20 Lesotho 30 33 High withholding tax rates weaken market environment 22 21 Cameroon 29 32 Merger with regional stock exchange attracts new listing 23 23 Ethiopia 25 27 Concrete steps to launch securities exchange Score across all pillars, max = 100. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 7
Executive summary Innovation in financial markets The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index evaluates equities, contributes to the score for market depth. financial market development in 23 countries, and Policies that encourage the issuance and trading of highlights economies with the most supportive these products, as well as those that intend to mitigate environment for effective markets. The aim is to against climate-related financial risks, form part of the show present positions, as well as how economies score for regulatory environment. can improve market frameworks to bolster investor OMFIF conducted extensive research using data from access and sustainable growth. The index assesses central banks, securities exchanges and international countries according to six pillars: market depth; access financial institutions. OMFIF surveyed over 50 policy- to foreign exchange; market transparency, tax and makers, regulators and executives from financial regulatory environment; capacity of local investors; institutions operating across the 23 countries, including macroeconomic opportunity; and enforceability of banks, securities exchanges, central banks, regulators, financial contracts. audit and accounting firms, and international financial In its fifth year, the index is expanding with the and development. introduction of new indicators. The availability of sustainable finance products, such as green bonds and Continued on p.10 >> Angola (33) Botswana (51) Cameroon (29) Egypt (48) Eswatini (39) Ethiopia (25) 38 55 28 42 24 11 40 29 31 79 59 28 54 61 34 60 37 28 12 60 15 18 41 10 41 76 57 82 64 62 10 25 10 10 10 10 Ghana (62) Ivory Coast (38) Kenya (47) Lesotho (30) Malawi (48) Mauritius (70) 50 34 46 11 33 57 59 55 45 48 44 55 75 55 79 50 56 83 21 11 24 13 18 68 65 62 62 52 55 67 100 10 28 10 80 90 Morocco (47) Mozambique (35) Namibia (48) Nigeria (63) Rwanda (43) Senegal (34) 53 38 32 62 30 36 40 44 44 20 61 46 73 42 41 86 67 43 39 18 100 44 15 11 64 52 64 69 64 59 10 18 10 100 18 10 KEY Seychelles (38) South Africa (86) Tanzania (45) Uganda (57) Zambia (51) Market depth 29 97 45 45 37 Access to foreign exchange Market transparency, tax 38 80 59 61 50 and regulatory environment 57 84 66 60 69 Capacity of local investors Macroeconomic opportunity 31 77 23 16 18 Legality and enforceability 62 77 65 70 47 of standard financial markets master agreements 10 100 10 90 85 (xx) = overall score 8 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Overall Pillar 1: Market depth Pillar 2: Access to foreign Pillar 3: Market transparency, tax and pillar exchange regulatory environment South Africa 97 South Africa 80 Nigeria 86 scores Nigeria Mauritius 62 57 Egypt Rwanda 79 61 South Africa Mauritius 84 83 max Botswana Morocco 55 53 Uganda Tanzania 61 59 Kenya Ghana 79 75 = 100 Ghana Kenya 50 46 Eswatini Ghana 59 59 Morocco Zambia 73 69 Uganda 45 Mauritius 55 Rwanda 67 Tanzania 45 Ivory Coast 55 Tanzania 66 Egypt 42 Zambia 50 Botswana 61 Angola 38 Lesotho 48 Uganda 60 Mozambique 38 Senegal 46 Egypt 60 Zambia 37 Kenya 45 Seychelles 57 Senegal 36 Mozambique 44 Malawi 56 Ivory Coast 34 Malawi 44 Ivory Coast 55 Malawi 33 Namibia 44 Angola 54 Namibia 32 Morocco 40 Lesotho 50 Rwanda 30 Angola 40 Senegal 43 Seychelles 29 Seychelles 38 Mozambique 42 Cameroon 28 Cameroon 31 Namibia 41 Eswatini 24 Botswana 29 Eswatini 37 Lesotho 11 Ethiopia 28 Cameroon 34 Ethiopia 11 Nigeria 20 Ethiopia 28 Pillar 4: Pillar 5: Pillar 6: Enforceability Capacity of Macroeconomic of standard master local investors opportunity agreements Namibia 100 Egypt 82 Ghana 100 South Africa 77 South Africa 77 Nigeria 100 Mauritius 68 Botswana 76 South Africa 100 Botswana 60 Uganda 70 Uganda 90 Nigeria 44 Nigeria 69 Mauritius 90 Eswatini 41 Mauritius 67 Zambia 85 Morocco 39 Tanzania 65 Malawi 80 Seychelles 31 Ghana 65 Kenya 28 Kenya 24 Morocco 64 Botswana 25 Tanzania 23 Rwanda 64 Rwanda 18 Ghana 21 Namibia 64 Mozambique 18 Mozambique 18 Eswatini 64 Egypt 10 Malawi 18 Kenya 62 Tanzania 10 Zambia 18 Ivory Coast 62 Morocco 10 Egypt 18 Seychelles 62 Namibia 10 Uganda 16 Ethiopia 62 Eswatini 10 Cameroon 15 Senegal 59 Ivory Coast 10 Rwanda 15 Cameroon 57 Seychelles 10 Lesotho 13 Malawi 55 Ethiopia 10 Angola 12 Mozambique 52 Senegal 10 Ivory Coast 11 Lesotho 52 Cameroon 10 Senegal 11 Zambia 47 Lesotho 10 Ethiopia 10 Angola 41 Angola 10 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 9
Acknowledgements We consulted more than 50 policy-makers, regulators and market practitioners across African financial markets in writing this report, whom we thank for their views and opinions. Although some requested anonymity, we thank the following: Organisations Financial Services Regulatory Authority, Eswatini Banco de Fomento Angola Johannesburg Stock Exchange Bank of Mauritius Market Infrastructure and Bank of Namibia OTC Markets department of Bank of Uganda the Financial Sector Conduct Bank of Zambia Authority, South Africa Bankers Association of Zambia Mauritius Commercial Bank Bolsa de Dívida e Valores de Merj Exchange, Seychelles Angola Ministry of Finance, Trade Botswana Stock Exchange Investment and Economic Capital Markets Authority, Planning, Seychelles Kenya Nairobi Securities Exchange Capital Markets Authority, Nigerian Exchange Group Uganda Reserve Bank of Malawi Capital Markets Commission, Angola Securities and Exchange Commission, Ghana Casablanca Stock Exchange, Morocco Securities and Exchange Pictured: Eygpt Commission, Nigeria Central Bank of Eswatini Securities and Exchange Central Bank of Seychelles Commission, Zambia Debt Management Office, Seychelles Ministry of Finance Nigeria Stock Exchange of Mauritius The report finds that: Eswatini Stock Exchange Uganda Securities Exchange Individuals South Africa, Mauritius and Nigeria maintain Adebayo Araoye, Capital Markets and Accounting Advisory their lead in the index, despite having lower overall Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers Nigeria scores than last year’s. Ghana and Uganda enter David Fernandes-Collett, Chief Operating Officer, Global the top five for the first time, both earning points Markets - Absa Regional Operations for progress in the enforceability of standard Jeff Gable, Head of Macro and Fixed Income Research, Absa master agreements. Seychelles had a challenging Abeku Gyan-Quansah, Partner/Director, PricewaterhouseCoopers Ghana year, experiencing severe exchange rate volatility. Ingrid Hagen, Vice President of Strategic Projects, Frontclear It falls five places in the index, the only country Anthony Kirui, Director, Head of Global Markets - Absa Regional with scores falling in all six pillars. Operations & Head of Global Markets - Absa Bank Kenya Jacqueline Irving, Senior Sector Economist, Sector Economics Few countries manage to score over 50 in Pillar and Development Impact Department, International Finance 1: Market depth. Low liquidity impacted marks, Corporation, World Bank Group with total equity turnover ratio in the index for Vipin Mahabirsingh, Managing Director, Central Depository and the 12 months leading to June declining by five Settlement Company, Mauritius percentage points. Market capitalisation rose in Moremi Marwa, Chief Executive Officer, Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange almost all countries in the index, but not enough Prosscovia Nambatya, Corporate Finance Lawyer to offset weak activity. Birgit Reuter, Financial Officer, Global Macro and Market Research Department, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group Nine countries have introduced products that Peter Werner, Senior Counsel, International Swaps and Derivatives can be classified as green or sustainable. Green Association bonds are the most popular instrument, available in seven countries either in exchanges or over Report authors the counter. Kenya and Morocco score highest Kat Usita, Head of Reports and Surveys in this indicator for having green or sustainable Natalia Ospina, Head of Policy Analysis, Sustainable Policy Institute bonds, equities and mutual funds in their Chevano Baker, Policy Analyst markets. Additionally, Kenya has issued ethical Mausi Owolabani, Policy Analyst securities to fund socially responsible investment With support from Brendan Kiy, Research Assistant opportunities. 10 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Securities exchanges across the region are innovating improve. The number of tax treaties that incentivise their platforms to encourage greater retail participation foreign investment increased in 14 countries. and ease listing processes. Rwanda developed eSub, a platform enabling people to buy and sell government Countries struggled in Pillar 4: Capacity of local securities using their mobile devices. In Seychelles, Merj investors, averaging a score of 31. Namibia tops the Exchange has an online listing process that does not pillar once again, earning full marks for having a deep require the submission of physical documents. pension market relative to the size of its population and securities market. However, 18 of the 23 countries failed Eswatini moves up 11 places in Pillar 2: Access to to score over 50, indicating weak potential on the part of foreign exchange. Foreign exchange reserves by grew domestic pensions markets to drive local market activity. by 24%, strengthening its position relative to total portfolio investment flows. Liquidity in FX markets, Countries performed best in Pillar 5: Macroeconomic measured through interbank figures, weakened across outlook, achieving an average score of 62. Egypt countries and pulled down the average score by 2.8. regains the lead, propelled by gross domestic product growth in 2020 while most other economies in the index Nearly all countries’ scores dropped in Pillar 3: Market contracted. All countries in the index score full points transparency, tax and regulatory, mainly due to weak for budget transparency, although there is variation in scores in sustainability indicators. South Africa is the the level of detail that governments publish. only country to have adopted climate risk as part of its macroprudential stress testing framework. Nine Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa earn full points in countries have policies that incentivise the issuance Pillar 6: Enforceability of standard master agreements. of sustainable financial products, including Kenya, The Bank of Ghana issued notice recognising netting whose Green Bonds Programme is encouraging the arrangements for transactions using global standard development of a green bond market domestically as documentation. well as across East Africa. Uganda, in fourth place, enacted legislation late last Survey respondents expressed concern about the year with provisions for enforcing close-out netting and quality of financial reporting and lack of oversight to collateral arrangements. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 11
Highlights 2020-21 Angola enacted The Egyptian Exchange Botswana‘s Non-Bank its Insolvency and launched a Treasury Bonds Financial Institutions Corporate Recovery Law Index to help investors Regulatory Authority and amended its Private track the performance of published regulations for Investment Law. securities traded. online securities trading. The Ethiopian parliament enacted the capital markets establishment proclamation to pave the way for the creation of a securities exchange. South Africa is reforming its regulatory framework for OTC derivatives. Zambia established a Capital Markets Tribunal to Cameroon extended the three-year tax breaks for companies listed on speed up dispute resolution the Bourse des Valeurs Mobilières de and settlement within the l’Afrique Centrale to last for as long as securities market. they are still on the exchange. The Stock Exchange of Mauritius Kenya raised $740m through launched its Venture Market, a the issuance of a 21-year platform for shareholders of unlisted companies to trade their securities. infrastructure bond. The Casablanca Stock Exchange launched the Morocco Stock Index 20 to aid investors in monitoring performance of the 20 most-traded listings. The Malawi Stock Exchange launched a Whatsapp portal to publicise information about securities listed and how to investment in them. 12 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Market developments and policy changes boost growth of financial markets across the continent Namibia’s Financial Institutions and Markets Act was signed into law, updating the legal framework regulating financial institutions. Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission approved guidelines for Tanzania launched a new trading derivatives on the Nigerian Stock Treasury bond with a 25- Exchange. year maturity, lengthening Energicotel became the first its yield curve. SME to list on the Rwanda Stock Exchange. The Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières, which covers Cameroon and Senegal, has been made a full member of Uganda is linking together the central the World Federation of Stock Exchanges. securities depository of the central bank and the stock exchange to facilitate Sekhametsi Investment Consortium is retail trading of government securities. preparing to become the first company to list on Lesotho’s Maseru Stock Exchange. Eswatini’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority updated its regulatory framework to create a broader capital market product offering. Ghana’s Securities and Exchange Commission launched a 10-year capital markets master plan to increase product The Central Bank of diversity and widen its investor base. Seychelles is working with the government to set up Mozambique’s investment law was a secondary market for amended to increase the minimum government securities. value required for foreign direct investments. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 13
Pillar 1: Market depth Pictured: Vineyard in Stellenbosch, South Africa 14 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Restoring dynamism Survey respondents identified weaker market liquidity and new developments in regulation as the two most significant changes in the market over the past year. Figure 1.1: Lower turnover weighed on scores Scores for Pillar 1 categories, max = 500; harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS) 500 100 450 90 400 80 350 70 300 60 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 Namibia Zambia Botswana Eswatini Malawi South Africa Nigeria Mauritius Morocco Ghana Kenya Tanzania Egypt Angola Mozambique Senegal Ivory Coast Rwanda Cameroon Ethiopia Lesotho Uganda Seychelles Product diversity Size of markets Liquidity Depth Primary dealer system Pillar 1 harmonised score (RHS) 2020 score (RHS) Source: AFMI survey 2021, national central banks, national stock exchanges, national capital market authorities, IMF, World Federation of Exchanges, OMFIF analysis. Note: Category scores (LHS) provide the average of indicator scores within each category. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all Pillar 1 indicators and is used to compile the total for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.42-43. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 15
Pillar 1 evaluates the size and up) as the market incorporates of Mauritius] a more compelling liquidity of domestic capital markets, the Covid-19 pandemic effects in capital-raising and listing platform along with the diversity of listed securities pricing.’ for niche international issuers.’ asset classes and the existence of Growth in Egypt’s equity market Between mid-2020 and mid-2021, standard features that enhance liquidity stands out when compared market capitalisation plummeted in market depth. On average, countries’ to the average performance of the Bourse des Valeurs Mobilières scores dropped by 1 point when the other countries in the index. de l’Afrique Centrale, the Stock compared to last year. Low equity The total value of equities traded Exchange of Central Africa. turnover played a significant role in increased by 68% year-on-year, However, new listings could help this deterioration. reaching $21.7bn up from $12.9bn. the exchange pick up momentum. The turnover ratio was 51%, 16 The BVMAC had its first initial public Reduced activity percentage points higher than offering since it merged with the In total, equity market turnover as a last year. In March 2021, the Douala Stock Exchange in 2019. La proportion of market capitalisation Central Bank of Egypt and the Régionale, a microfinance institution fell by 5 percentage points (to Financial Regulatory Authority in Cameroon, launched an IPO in 24%) in the year to June 2021 agreed to establish a fund aimed at February 2021, raising capital in compared with a year earlier. South increasing liquidity in the Egyptian support of its plans to become a Africa, which remains at the top Exchange, prompting the entry universal bank. It is the first financial of Pillar 1, experienced one of the of new investors. The number of institution listed on the BVMAC, most considerable reductions in listed companies on the bourse which now has five listed companies. market activity. The turnover ratio dipped slightly to 215 at the end of According to market participants, fell seven percentage points to 2020, but this recovered to 220 by the regional stock exchange is 26% due to slow market trading September of this year. expected to continue down this path during the second half of 2020 and of greater dynamism with various Market capitalisation rose in almost higher market capitalisation. Since IPOs of state-owned enterprises in all of the countries in the index. In February of this year, ‘These markets the pipeline. Mauritius, which ranks third in Pillar have normalised and exhibit ample 1 again this year, equity market liquidity […] equities have extended Fixed income markets value grew the most with a 47% gains and now exceed pre-pandemic year-on-year increase. The country’s Higher budget deficits and lower levels,’ affirmed one South African market capitalisation to GDP ratio tax revenues as a result of Covid-19 survey respondent. reached 79%, up from 42% last year. continue to sway public debt and This drop was not limited to South The Financial Services Commission impact the economy (see Pillar Africa. Market activity across most made several changes to the capital 5). Exacerbated government countries in the index continued market regulatory frameworks, dependency on the domestic debt to be adversely impacted by the including narrowing down the market has increased the size of Covid-19 pandemic. New waves definition of reporting issuers and bond markets across most countries of the virus and consequent exempting foreign companies that in the index. In Botswana, which containment measures, along with a fall into this category from specific maintains its fourth place in Pillar slow vaccine roll-out, are thwarting disclosure requirements. According 1, the total value of sovereign efforts to revamp economic activity. to one respondent, ‘These changes bonds outstanding as a percentage ‘The rate of recovery [has] an impact will definitely make Mauritius of GDP increased to 10%, up from on turnover levels and market and the SEM [Stock Exchange 6% last year. The government of confidence,’ stated one central Botswana doubled its domestic banker. borrowing programme to BWP30bn (around $2.6bn). ‘This, coupled with Another respondent commented the increased frequency of bond that as vaccination rates improve auctions, has significantly improved and the economy reopens, there bond market activity,’ affirmed one will be a more stable path towards ‘Exacerbated survey participant. Despite greater economic recovery and market players’ interest will be revitalised. government activity, the turnover ratio was Many countries in the region are dependency on the nearly unchanged because of the increase in the value of outstanding already experiencing some market domestic debt market debt. reactivation. A participant from has increased the Kenya described how ‘Recently, Governments across the region are the market has realised an upturn, size of bond markets not only issuing more bonds but also with some of the value losses being across most countries introducing longer tenors. Uganda, recouped […] market liquidity fell in the index.’ which rises one rank to eighth (though it has now started picking in Pillar 1, introduced a 20-year 16 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
treasury bond tenor on the auction calendar in the last quarter of Figure 1.2: Equity market turnover falls 2020. In April of this year, Tanzania Market size and liquidity issued its first 25-year treasury bond. Lengthening the maturity of Market Turnover of Total sovereign Total turnover in domestic government securities equities, % and corporate bond market, % Country capitalisation, of market bonds listed on of listed bonds is a step forward in central banks’ % of GDP capitalisation exchanges, $bn outstanding efforts to build robust yield curves South Africa 427.0 26.3 258.0 246.1 that can be used as a pricing Botswana 231.6 0.2 2.1 16.1 benchmark for other assets. Seychelles 149.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 As countries broaden their bond Mauritius 78.6 3.4 0.9 4.0 markets, they are also focusing on Morocco 62.8 7.5 0.8 3.7 guaranteeing an active and liquid Rwanda 36.6 0.6 0.8 4.8 secondary market by introducing Senegal 35.7 2.2 12.5 2.7 Malawi 28.0 2.3 1.0 0 essential players and strengthening Kenya 25.3 5.0 26.6 30.0 existing ones. The Bank of Uganda Namibia 18.1 33.2 3.6 5.5 reformed the primary dealership Uganda 15.9 0.1 5.1 0 system in the last quarter of 2020, Ghana 15.6 1.1 26.9 109.9 limiting the competitive bidding Zambia 14.4 0.4 5.9 266.5 in the primary market to seven Ivory Coast 14.2 2.2 12.5 2.7 primary dealer banks, who are Egypt 11.7 51.1 116.9 20.1 obliged to make markets at all Nigeria 11.7 4.9 46.0 131.5 times during trading hours. ‘Since Tanzania 11.4 3.3 6.4 15.1 the introduction of market makers, Eswatini 7.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 there is significant improvement Mozambique 1.9 1.9 1.6 5.9 in secondary market activity noted Cameroon 0.2 0.9 1.5 0 by increased secondary market Angola 0 0 6.4 28.0 turnover,’ remarked one survey Source: AFMI survey 2021, national central banks, national stock exchanges, national capital market authorities, IMF, World respondent. In Ghana, bond market Federation of Exchanges, OMFIF analysis. specialists were introduced as a new sub-category of primary dealers that have the exclusive right to participate in primary issuance of all Figure 1.3: Egyptian Exchange bucks government treasury bills, notes and bonds. downward trend Total equities turnover, % of market capitalisation, top 10 most active exchanges Market infrastructure and 60 regulatory developments The development of capital markets 50 must be built on up-to-date infrastructure. Some of the recent amendments made to the Securities 40 Act in Mauritius pave the way for the establishment of new clearing 30 and settlement facilities and other securities exchanges alongside the SEM. Kenya will soon start the 20 user-testing phase for its upgraded central securities depository, which 10 is expected to go live in April of next year. The revised CSD will address 0 challenges around horizontal Tanzania Kenya Nigeria Mozambique Mauritius Morocco Senegal* Ivory Coast and Namibia South Africa Egypt repurchase agreements, and it will also allow repos of government securities to go through a fully automated process, contributing July 2019-June 2020 July 2020-June 2021 significantly to deepening the Source: National central banks, national stock exchanges, national capital market authorities, IMF, World Federation of Exchanges, secondary market in these sovereign OMFIF analysis *Note: Ivory Coast and Senegal are among eight countries that comprise the regional stock exchange, Bourse Régionale asset classes. Additionally, and in des Valeurs Mobilières. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 17
Pictured: Train tracks in Muizenberg Beach, South Africa 18 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
‘Nine countries in the index have introduced Figure 1.4: Nine countries actively moving products that can be towards sustainable capital markets classified as green or Availability of sustainable finance products on exchanges or OTC sustainable. Green bonds are the most popular Green Other sustainable Green/ sustainable Sustainable Sustainable mutual Country ETFs instrument, being at bonds bonds equities funds investors’ disposal in seven countries.’ Kenya Morocco Mauritius South Africa Ghana line with Kenya’s efforts around Egypt financial inclusion, the CSD technology is being tailored to give Namibia access to all market participants, including retail investors. Nigeria Regulatory authorities in the region have created master plans to guide Seychelles capital market development and orderly growth. In May, Ghana Source: OMFIF Absa survey 2021 launched its capital market master plan with an enhancement path for the next 10 years. Zambia unveiled a 10-year master plan products across the world, and Partnerships and integration and the Securities and Exchange countries in the index are following Commission is finalising its strategic In addition to broadening available suit. The availability of these products, countries have developed plan for 2022-27. products in the domestic markets various strategies to increase Ethiopia reached an important is a new indicator forming part of participation in their domestic milestone in efforts to establish countries’ Pillar 1 scores. capital markets. As part of its its capital market. In June, the Nine countries in the index have internationalisation strategy, the parliament unanimously approved introduced products that can be Botswana Stock Exchange partnered and enacted the capital markets classified as green or sustainable. with Bloomberg to attract new establishment proclamation. The Green bonds are the most popular issuers and investors. Bloomberg will Ethiopian Capital Markets Authority instrument, being at investors’ include floating content about the is expected to become operational disposal in seven countries. Kenya exchange with a direct link to the before the end of this year, paving and Morocco score highest in relevant information on its website. the way for the joint partnership this indicator for having green or The Ghana Stock Exchange partnered between the government and the sustainable bonds, equities and with the London Stock Exchange private sector to constitute the mutual funds in their markets. to support Ghana’s capital market securities exchange. Additionally, Kenya has issued ethical development. This partnership securities to fund socially responsible will focus on upgrading Ghana’s Sustainability-focused products investment opportunities. In March classification from a frontier to an Many survey respondents raised the of this year, the Banque Centrale emerging market and supporting lack of product diversity as one of Populaire group in Morocco launched cross-listings between both the most significant challenges to the gender bond programme, the exchanges. capital markets in the region. A global country’s first project to finance Countries are also doubling their focus on sustainable finance has led female entrepreneurs and self- efforts to be part of globally to the introduction of green financial employed women. recognised indices to put their Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 19
Digital developments in financial markets Increased digitalisation, fintech innovation and exploration into central bank digital currencies are spurring on financial market transformation. Automation and digitalisation of trading innovation by providing a testing environment platforms and regulatory processes for pioneering products and services. Digital technologies are reshaping financial • Zambia’s SEC launched a capital markets markets in many countries. Beyond improving sandbox. accessibility, digital innovations can make • Nigeria’s SEC launched FinPort, a fintech and capital markets more efficient and competitive, innovation portal to assist fintech businesses attracting investors and issuers. to understand the regulatory requirements for the Nigerian capital market. The SEC will also • The Bank of Mauritius launched the FSC be rolling out a regulatory incubator for fintech One platform, an integrated innovative seeking to conduct capital market activities. digital system that helps track applications’ • The central banks of Angola, Eswatini and authorisation process. Ghana launched payments-focused sandboxes. • The Central Bank of Rwanda developed • The Bank of Uganda issued its legal framework eSub, a platform enabling people to buy and for a national payments systems regulatory sell government securities using their mobile sandbox. devices. • The Bank of Ghana established a new desk • In Seychelles, Merj Exchange has an online called the Fintech and Innovation Office to drive listing process that does not require the cash-lite, e-payments and digitalisation. submission of physical documents. • Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority used • Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange its sandbox regulatory regime to conduct Commission licensed Chaka, the first digital innovation testing of digital platforms. trading platform. • The Bank of Zambia aims to develop an online Digital currencies and assets government securities application platform. Central banks are exploring the possibility of • The Johannesburg Stock Exchange is issuing central bank digital currencies. Several developing a digital private placements index countries have initiated research and platform for raising capital for infrastructure development projects. The central banks of finance and small- and medium-sized Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda are researching enterprises. the potential benefits of CBDC in promoting • The Eswatini Stock Exchange is in the process payments system efficiency and stability, of launching an automated trading system. fostering competition in the financial sector • Kenya will soon start the user-testing phase and boosting economic growth. for its upgraded central securities depository, CBDC projects are further advanced in which will provide a web-based centralised Nigeria, Mauritius and South Africa. The Central registry for sovereign securities. Bank of Nigeria announced the engagement of • The Malawi CSD is being enhanced to include a technical partner for the introduction of its an investor portal that enables access to digital currency, called eNaira, later this year. accounts and portfolio investments in real South Africa recently announced the testing time. of CBDCs for cross-border payments. In 2020, Mauritius amended its legislation to make the Regulatory sandboxes for fintech and CBDC a legal tender and is now developing innovation legislation to govern virtual assets. The central Regulatory sandboxes can serve as an evidence bank also developed a licensing structure for base for regulation, allow new firm entry, custodians and standards for issuing security strengthen competition and encourage market tokens. 20 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
capital markets on the radar of Some countries have already made by June 2020 of 36.8%.’ international investors. In January significant achievements in luring On 13 November, the 30-day grace 2021, Mauritius was admitted investors back. In August, Rwanda period that Zambia had to comply to the Bloomberg African bond raised $620m through a 10-year with a coupon payment on its index. In June, Egypt was included eurobond, which was oversubscribed $1bn eurobond, which was due in the FTSE Frontier Emerging with orders of $1.6bn. A respondent on 14 October, ended. After being Markets Government Bond Index. from Uganda shared that ‘By labelled Africa’s first bond default It is working towards moving June 2021, non-resident holdings in the pandemic, the country has from JP Morgan’s watch list to its in government securities had a made significant strides in winning government index for emerging year-on-year increase of 140.6% investors’ confidence back. On its markets. compared to a year-on-year increase latest monetary policy committee statement, the Bank of Zambia reported a surge in demand for government bonds, which reached Figure 1.5: Stock exchanges using a subscription rate of 162%, a rise of 96 percentage points from technology to boost retail participation the rates seen in the first quarter. Countries with digital platforms for retail securities trading Non-resident investors represented 70% of this increased demand for Country Mobile application Online trading government bonds. International Angola investors’ holdings of government Botswana securities more than doubled, Eswatini reaching 25% of outstanding sovereign securities in June 2021, Ghana up from 13% reported in March. Kenya According to the central bank, ‘This Mauritius was mostly on the back of high Morocco yield rates and improved investor Nigeria sentiments following the credit Rwanda rating upgrade by Fitch in April 2021.’ Seychelles Tanzania Integration efforts in the region are not only aimed at widening Uganda the investor base but also, in the Zambia words of a survey respondent, ‘at Source: AFMI survey 2021 unlocking Pan-African investment flows, promoting innovations that support diversification for investors and addressing depth and liquidity in the markets.’ The Figure 1.6: African central banks considering African Exchanges Linkage Project digital currency reached an important milestone in July of this year when the African Countries with CBDCs in either research or development phase Securities Exchanges Association Type of CBDC signed the contract to procure an Country order-routing system, bringing Retail Wholesale Undecided cross-border trading one step closer to realisation. Similarly, Eswatini the Economic Community of West Ghana African States is planning to link up Kenya debt markets by the end of 2023 Mauritius to allow debt auctions from any Morocco country to be open to investors from the bloc. Ghana’s Securities Nigeria Exchange has shared that regulators Rwanda and stock exchanges from ECOWAS South Africa are currently developing a system to Source: AFMI survey 2021 enable brokers to trade across the different markets of the group. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 21
Pillar 2: Access to foreign exchange Pictured: Hot air balloon, Sossusvlei in Namibia 22 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
Managing volatility Responsive interventions, debt issuance and support from international financial institutions proved crucial in maintaining foreign exchange liquidity in a turbulent environment. Figure 2.1: FX liquidity challenges dampened countries’ performance Scores for Pillar 2 indicators, max = 400; harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS) 400 100 350 90 80 300 70 250 60 200 50 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 Cameroon Ghana Zambia Botswana South Africa Egypt Rwanda Tanzania Mauritius Ivory Coast Lesotho Senegal Kenya Mozambique Malawi Namibia Morocco Angola Ethiopia Nigeria Uganda Seychelles Eswatini Net portfolio investment to reserves Interbank foreign exchange turnover Foreign exchange capital controls Official exchange rate reporting standard Pillar 2 harmonised score (RHS) 2020 score (RHS) Sources: International Monetary Fund, national central banks, AFMI survey 2021, OMFIF analysis. Note: The harmonised score represents the average of all Pillar 2 indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1 to 6. More information on p.42-43. The Central Bank of Kenya does not publish figures for interbank foreign exchange turnover. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 | 23
Pillar 2 examines factors that impact ‘On average, country Nigeria continues to perform poorly in markets’ accessibility to international this pillar. It imposed administrative investors. These include the existence scores declined by controls by expanding the number of and severity of capital controls, 2.8 points in this pillar, goods subject to import restrictions, exchange rate reporting standards and partly due to weaker enforcing existing export repatriation the level of foreign exchange liquidity. reserve positions rules and restricting FX supply to This pillar also assesses countries’ certain windows. While these measures ability to manage volatility resulting relative to net restricted capital outflows and helped from openness. This is measured by portfolio flows.’ keep reserves stable, market liquidity central banks’ readiness to meet the remained below pre-pandemic levels. demand for currency by looking at the Due to the control measures and global ratio of net portfolio flows to reserves. macroeconomic imbalances, foreign portfolio investors’ appetite remained On average, country scores declined by subdued. The volatile FX market 2.8 points in this pillar, partly due to and the delays in the repatriation weaker reserve positions relative to net changes such as the increased use of foreign currency out of Nigeria portfolio flows. Nonetheless, budget of forward FX auctions, and limited caused further problems. Despite a support from international financial central bank interventions to smooth rebound in oil prices and remittances, institutions helped governments meet sharp exchange rate changes to the FX shortage persists as imports their FX liquidity needs and buffer protect reserves. recover faster than exports. All these reserves against the pandemic shock. factors contributed to Nigeria’s poor South Africa maintains its lead in this Managing foreign exchange liquidity performance in Pillar 2. pillar. An outlier with the most active needs interbank FX market, South Africa had Emergency funding cushioning the The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted annual turnover of $3.5tn. Egypt ranks impact of shocks on reserves FX markets and global capital flows, second place but, with annual turnover necessitating interventions in some Credit facilities from international of $55.2bn, the gap between the two countries to smooth excessive market financial institutions and bond issuers countries is significant. High interbank volatility and restrict capital outflows. have been crucial in cushioning the FX activity provides several benefits, impact of the pandemic and boosting including more accurate exchange Uganda continues to do well in Pillar FX reserves for many index countries. rates for domestic rates and a greater 2 but drops two places to fourth Reserves for many countries increased. flow of FX through the official market. this year. Amid the global financial Morocco had the largest increase market turbulence in 2020, the Bank Before the pandemic hit, Egypt of 37%, resulting from quick access of Uganda intervened in the currency implemented measures to restore to emergency funding from donors, market by selling around $200m in macroeconomic balance and increased including $3bn from the International FX, causing the shilling to appreciate. reserves to an all-time high. Floating Monetary Fund and $460m from the The Bank of Uganda authorised the the exchange rate prevented currency African Development Bank. Morocco inclusion of FX swaps in the monetary overvaluation and FX shortages. issued a €1bn eurobond in September policy toolkit to increase access Following a significant decrease 2020, which also boosted reserves. to foreign currency and moderate in net portfolio investments and a exchange rate volatility. Eswatini, one of the smallest subsequent drop in reserves, the ratio economies in the index, has the of the two fell to 3% from 25.7%. The Following a significant shortage of lowest level of international reserves buffer in reserves suggests that Egypt FX resulting from a decline in tourism among countries covered. Following will have sufficient cover even when activities, the Bank of Mauritius budget support inflows, Eswatini’s net portfolio flows increase. intervened in the FX market to provide reserves grew by 24% to $545.6m much-needed liquidity. The country’s Despite a decline in its interbank from $440.3m. It received emergency total portfolio investment flows to FX market turnover, Ghana climbs financial assistance of around reserves decreased to 79.8% from five positions in Pillar 2. Ghana’s $110.4m from the IMF to meet the 86.6% as net portfolio flows fell faster performance was driven mainly by balance of payment needs. Before than reserves. Several amendments more frequent official exchange rate the pandemic, the current account to the Securities Act were enacted as reporting and wider adoption of the surplus narrowed and international the country sought to attract more FX Global Code. Its current account reserves were declining amid increased foreign investors. The laws now permit deficit widened marginally to 3.1% of portfolio investments. Notably, the retail investors and the registration GDP, as lower oil exports were offset increase in reserves along with a of foreign funds whose assets are in part by higher gold prices, robust fall in total portfolio investments marketed to retail investors in or from remittances and fewer imports. In reduced Eswatini’s total portfolio Mauritius. Foreign reporting issuers 2020, the Ghanaian cedi remained investment flow to reserves ratio to are also no longer required to be relatively stable against the dollar 7.8% from 19.4%. This performance registered with the Financial Services due to reduced FX demand, structural lifts Eswatini by nine places, the Commission. 24 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2021
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