Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 Taking you further into Africa than ever before. 28.5167° S | 28.6167° E Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 1
The Absa Africa Financial Markets Absa Group Limited (‘Absa Group’) is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Index was produced by OMFIF in Exchange and is one of Africa’s largest diversified financial services groups. association with Absa Group Limited. The scores on p.7 and elsewhere Absa Group offers an integrated set of products and services across record the total result (max=100) of personal and business banking, corporate and investment banking, wealth assessments accross Pillars 1-6. For and investment management and insurance. methodology see individual Pillar Absa Group has a presence in 12 countries in Africa, with approximately assessments and p.38-39. 42,000 employees. OMFIF conducted extensive The Group’s registered head office is in Johannesburg, South Africa, and quantitative research and data it owns majority stakes in banks in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, analysis with additional data input Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa (Absa Bank), Tanzania (Barclays Bank from Absa. Qualitative survey data Tanzania and National Bank of Commerce), Uganda and Zambia. The Group were collected and analysed by OMFIF also has representative offices in Namibia and Nigeria, as well as insurance with significant in-country expertise operations in Botswana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and provided by Absa. The report was Zambia. written by OMFIF, with Absa acting in For further information about Absa Group Limited, please visit an advisory capacity. www.absa.africa © 2018 The Absa Group Limited and OMFIF Ltd. All Rights Reserved. The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is an independent Absa Marketing think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment – a non-lobbying network for best practice in worldwide publicprivate sector and Events team exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – central banks, sovereign funds and public pension funds – with investable assets of $33.8tn, Malcolm Isaacs, Business Manager, equivalent to 45% of world GDP. With offices in both London and Singapore, Fiona Kigen, Marketing Manager, OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes – particularly in Karena Crerar, Communications asset management, capital markets and financial supervision/regulation – Manager, Msizi Khoza, Chief of Staff relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators and treasuries. OMFIF promotes higher standards, performance-enhancing OMFIF Editorial, Meetings exchanges between public and private sectors and a better understanding of and Marketing team the world economy, in an atmosphere of mutual trust. Simon Hadley, Production Manager, For further information about OMFIF, please visit www.omfif.org Julian Frazer, Senior Editor, Sarah Holmes, Deputy Director, Head of Meetings and Membership Operations, Sofia Melis, Relationship Manager, Stefan Berci, Communications Manager, James Fitzgerald, Senior Marketing Executive. 2 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Contents Forewords4-5 Pillar 4: Capacity of local Introduction6-7 investors 24-27 Executive summary 8-11 Examines the size of local investors, assessing the level Contains country comparisons and highlights of local demands against opportunities and challenges for the region’s financial supply of assets available in markets. each market. Acknowledgments11 Pillar 1: Market depth 12-15 Pillar 5: Examines size, liquidity Macroeconomic and depth of markets and opportunity diversity of products in each 28-31 market. Assesses countries’ economic prospects using metrics on growth, debt, export competitiveness, banking sector risk and availability of macro data. Pillar 2: Access to foreign Pillar 6: Legality and exchange enforceability of standard 16-19 financial markets Assesses the ease with which master agreements foreign investors can deploy and repatriate capital in the 32-35 region. Tracks the commitment to international financial market agreements, enforcement of netting and collateral positions and the strength of insolvency frameworks. Country snapshots 36-37 Pillar 3: Market transparency, Indicators and Methodology 38-39 tax and regulatory environment 20-23 Evaluates the tax and regulatory frameworks in each jurisdiction, as well as the level of financial stability and of transparency of financial information. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 3
Vital role for the future Akinwumi Adesina President of the African Development Bank Aim of index Capital markets play a vital role in Africa’s future. The continent’s financial markets have remained resilient African economies and innovative amid slowing worldwide growth after the synchronised upturn of 2017. However, they remain are undergoing a fragmented and shallow compared to their equivalents in Latin America and Asia. The second edition of the Absa significant period Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by OMFIF, draws attention to the considerable investment opportunities and of transition and untapped market potential of countries across the continent. The African Development Bank’s African Financial Markets appraisal, with Initiative was launched in 2008 to develop local currency bond markets. Africa’s capital markets have grown growing foreign significantly over the past few decades, with around 30 stock exchanges in 2018 against just five in the 1980s. Total investment local currency sovereign bond issues increased to more than $240bn in 2017 from $28bn in 2000. This includes 94% of interest and much Treasury bills with original maturity of less than one year in examination of the 2000 v. around 80% in 2017. The Bank’s African Financial Market Database expanded to 43 countries in 2015 from 22 continent’s potential in 2012. Resilient and deeper financial markets are essential to for mobilising local Africa’s transformation. Achieving the Bank’s ‘High 5’ objectives for accelerating Africa’s transformation (light up resources. Now in and power, feed, integrate, industrialise and improve the quality of life for the people of Africa) depends on financial its second year, the markets playing a greater role in financing the real economy. index has become a The Bank’s goal is to support 20 capital markets over the next decade and address market development challenges, benchmark for the including those identified in the various indicators of the six pillars of this index. That is why the Bank engages with the investment community public and private sectors to support market reforms, such as policy modernisation and frameworks governing capital and Africa generally markets. Flexibility in accessing capital markets is key to unlocking domestic savings and attracting investment. to gauge countries’ Africa’s transformation requires significant resources. To achieve universal energy access by 2025, for example, policy- performance and makers must mobilise $30bn-$55bn annually in domestic and international capital. This calls for a shift of resource highlight how they can mobilisation, deploying robust financial systems and capital markets. The private sector will need to bear much of the learn from others. load. This latest OMFIF report provides an excellent basis for the acceleration of the delivery of the Bank’s ‘High 5’ strategy and I strongly commend its publication. 4 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
FOREWORDS Resilient capital markets are a Co-operation underpins necessity, not a luxury inclusive growth Jingdong Hua Maria Ramos Vice-President and Treasurer, Chief Executive Officer, International Finance Corporation Absa Group Delve into the history of countries that have achieved Greater co-operation and collaboration between African transformative economic growth and a common countries will be the fundamental building blocks denominator emerges: in nearly every case they relied on for sustainable economic development, accelerating sound financial architecture to effectively build and connect industrialisation and the achievement of inclusive savings to investments. Africa’s potential, if it harnesses growth. The recent signing of the African Continental the power of resilient financial architecture, is likewise, Free Trade Agreement by most member states of enormous. the African Union has ushered in an era of enhanced Policy-makers must recognise that capital markets are intraregional co-operation and was an important as important as social and physical infrastructure. The signpost on Africa’s journey towards building the good news is that a new generation of African leaders institutions and financial infrastructure that will attract are embracing the long-term view, acknowledging the local and international investors. development paradigm has changed, and prioritising the private sector. The second edition of the Absa Africa Financial Markets As this second Absa Africa Financial Markets Index reveals, Index comes at a time when emerging market economies important steps are being taken to develop financial systems are under intense pressure with currencies depreciating, that are robust and large enough to entrench resilience. Still, growth slowing and interest rates rising. The impact Africa’s corporate bond market is markedly small, and many has been driven in part by economic developments in countries face financial, security or humanitarian challenges, advanced economies but also local factors. The current and an urgent need to diversity their economies. period has only highlighted the importance of strong Without significant shifts in policy, the world is not on domestic financial markets in improving economic track to achieve the target of less than 3% of people living resilience. in extreme poverty by 2030. In some places, including The 2018 edition of the index takes us further into sub-Saharan Africa, poverty could remain in double digits Africa’s financial markets than ever before. The percentages. To create an enabling environment for job report assesses progress and potential across six creation and shared prosperity, Africa must develop deep, liquid and open capital markets both domestically key areas: market depth; access to foreign exchange; and regionally – ensuring efficient channelling of savings market transparency, tax and regulatory environment; towards entrepreneurs and financing vital rail, road, power macroeconomic opportunity; and the legality and and housing infrastructure. enforceability of standard financial markets master agreements. IFC – a sister organisation of the World Bank and member of the World Bank Group – is the largest global development We believe the index is an important tool that can be institution focused exclusively on the private sector in used by policy-makers and market participants to guide developing countries. More and more of our clients in Africa their efforts in building robust financial markets that can are demanding local currency financing. As a triple A-rated drive inclusive growth. We are proud to be relaunching institution, we are increasingly offering local currency the index as part of the Absa Group’s commitment to solutions and access to local capital markets so they can contributing to pan-African growth and prosperity. focus on growing business instead of worrying about exchange rate volatility. We are also committed to building capacity, and recently welcomed our third class of fellows for the Capital Markets Program we have developed with the Milken Institute and the George Washington University, forming champions for capital markets development in emerging economies. Capital markets are not a luxury – they are a necessity. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 5
Signs of progress amid regional economic weakness The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by OMFIF, provides a toolkit for countries seeking to strengthen their financial markets infrastructure. It tracks progress on financial market developments annually across a range of countries and indicators. This year’s edition extends coverage to three additional countries – Angola, Cameroon and Senegal – and pays special attention to policies to enhance market growth, including financial inclusion and investor education. Kenya, Morocco and the Seychelles have improved their scores most over the last year, particularly in terms of openness to foreign exchange. Nigeria’s score has also strengthened, thanks to policies augmenting market depth and enhancing the capacity of local investors. Mauritius and Namibia, while still among the top performers, have seen their scores deteriorate across most pillars. Improvements in market infrastructure and regulatory frameworks could boost the performance of countries in the middle of the index over coming years. 6 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
INTRODUCTION 2018 2017 Score Comments 1 1 South Africa 93 Deep and liquid financial markets but shows weaker macroeconomic outlook 2 3 Botswana 65 Stable performance across pillars with efforts made to improve local investor base 3 5 Kenya 65 Top place for access to foreign exchange but limited product diversity 4 2 Mauritius 62 Strong regulatory and legal framework but shallow foreign exchange market 5 6 Nigeria 61 Improvements in administrative efficiency and tax incentives boost regulatory environment 6 4 Namibia 57 Strong local investor base but low liquidity in domestic market 7 7 Ghana 55 Markets benefit from regulatory reforms but have weak insolvency framework 8 9 Zambia 53 Relaxation of capital controls supports growth of foreign exchange market 9 12 Morocco 50 Broad improvements across all pillars, especially on local investor base 10 10 Uganda 50 Stable performance with good foreign exchange access but low local investor capacity 11 8 Rwanda 49 Discrepancies between strong official rules on transparency and reality of implementation 12 16 Seychelles 45 Liberalisation of capital account boosts foreign investment opportunities 13 13 Ivory Coast 44 Improving reporting standards but weak foreign participation in the market 14 - Senegal 44 Regional exchange provides opportunities for growth but legal framework lags behind peers 15 11 Tanzania 43 Mining sector regulations help market deepen but local investors continue to lack capacity 16 14 Egypt 42 Improving foreign exchange environment but problems with contract enforcing 17 - Cameroon 41 Low market depth and weak legal framework 18 15 Mozambique 36 Improved reporting standard but poor access to foreign exchange 19 - Angola 34 Move to more flexible exchange rate encourages foreign investment but capital controls still in place 20 17 Ethiopia 26 Underdeveloped financial system lacking security exchange and corporate bond market Score across all pillars, max = 100. The second edition of the index adds three additional countries (Angola, Cameroon and Senegal). The scope for direct comparison of countries’ position in the index between 2017 and 2018 is therefore limited. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Morocco Building Africa’s financial markets 41 40 66 65 65 21 The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index evaluates financial market development in 20 countries, as well as highlighting economies with clearest growth prospects. The aim is to show Senegal not just present positions but also how economies can improve market frameworks to meet yardsticks for investor access and sustainable growth. The Index assesses countries according to six pillars: market depth; access to foreign exchange; tax and regulatory environment and market transparency; capacity of local investors; macroeconomic opportunity; and enforceability 45 53 64 21 50 30 of financial contracts, collateral positions and insolvency frameworks. In addition to quantitative analysis, OMFIF gained additional insights by surveying over 50 policy-makers and top executives Ivory Coast from financial institutions operating across the 20 countries, including banks, investors, securities exchanges, central banks, regulators, audit and accounting firms and international financial and development institutions. Continued on p.10 >> 40 66 67 14 51 26 Overall pillar scores max = 100 Pillar 1: Pillar 2: Pillar 3: Pillar 4: Pillar 5: Market Access to foreign Market transparency, Capacity of Macroeconomic depth exchange tax and regulatory local investors opportunity environment South Africa 100 Kenya 93 Nigeria 94 South Africa 95 South Africa 75 Nigeria 66 South Africa 91 South Africa 94 Morocco 65 Egypt 71 Mauritius 56 Uganda 83 Rwanda 90 Botswana 64 Namibia 70 Ghana 55 Botswana 79 Mauritius 89 Namibia 56 Botswana 69 Botswana 48 Zambia 77 Botswana 78 Nigeria 50 Morocco 65 Zambia 48 Seychelles 75 Ghana 71 Seychelles 49 Kenya 65 Senegal 45 Namibia 72 Tanzania 70 Kenya 33 Uganda 63 Kenya 44 Ivory Coast 66 Kenya 70 Egypt 30 Mauritius 63 Namibia 43 Cameroon 62 Ivory Coast 67 Cameroon 29 Ethiopia 62 Uganda 43 Ghana 58 Morocco 66 Angola 29 Seychelles 61 Egypt 42 Nigeria 53 Senegal 64 Senegal 21 Nigeria 59 Morocco 41 Senegal 53 Uganda 60 Tanzania 19 Tanzania 58 Ivory Coast 40 Mauritius 52 Namibia 57 Mauritius 18 Angola 57 Mozambique 38 Morocco 40 Zambia 56 Mozambique 17 Ghana 57 Tanzania 35 Egypt 37 Angola 52 Ivory Coast 14 Rwanda 56 Angola 29 Tanzania 36 Mozambique 49 Rwanda 14 Cameroon 55 Cameroon 28 Rwanda 35 Egypt 45 Zambia 14 Ivory Coast 51 Seychelles 24 Ethiopia 30 Cameroon 45 Ghana 13 Senegal 50 Rwanda 21 Mozambique 29 Seychelles 26 Uganda 13 Mozambique 50 Ethiopia 10 Angola 29 Ethiopia 22 Ethiopia 10 Zambia 44 8 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Egypt KEY Pillar 1 Market depth 42 37 45 30 71 24 Pillar 2 Access to foreign exchange Pillar 3 Market transparency, tax and regulatory environment Pillar 4 Capacity of local investors Pillar 5 Macroeconomic opportunity Ethiopia Pillar 6 Legality and enforceability of standard financial markets master agreements Nigeria Uganda 10 30 22 10 62 23 Cameroon 66 53 94 50 59 42 43 83 60 13 63 33 Kenya Ghana Rwanda 28 62 45 29 55 30 44 43 70 33 65 83 55 58 71 13 57 74 21 35 90 14 56 77 Tanzania Seychelles Pillar 6: Legality and enforceability of Angola standard financial markets Zambia master agreements 35 36 70 19 58 38 South Africa 100 Mauritius 94 24 75 26 49 61 32 Kenya 83 Zambia 78 29 29 52 29 57 10 Mozambique Rwanda 77 48 77 56 14 44 78 Ghana 74 Botswana 52 Botswana Namibia 43 Namibia Nigeria 42 38 29 49 17 50 32 Tanzania 38 Uganda 33 Seychelles 32 Mozambique 32 48 79 78 64 69 52 Senegal 30 43 72 57 56 70 43 Cameroon 30 Mauritius South Africa Ivory Coast 26 Egypt 24 Ethiopia 23 Morocco 21 Angola 10 56 52 89 18 63 94 100 91 94 95 75 100 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 9
The report finds that: Countries are progressing and regulatory environment’. market growth and development’, with policies that support the according to survey respondents. The greatest area for improvement development of financial markets for the continent remains the International financial reporting across the continent. South ‘capacity of local investors’. standards are required for domestic Africa’s ‘twin peaks’ strategy for companies in 17 out of the 20 Excluding the top-five scorers, improving financial regulation and countries in the index. Both Ivory the remaining countries average a Mozambique’s ‘financial sector Coast and Mozambique have score of just 22 in Pillar 4. Survey development strategy’ stand out transitioned from ‘permitted but not respondents highlighted that the among the frameworks introduced required’ to ‘required’ in the space of lack of knowledge and expertise over the past year. Such initiatives a year. of pension fund trustees and have boosted performance for the other asset owners hinders the Only South Africa, Nigeria and index as a whole. development of new financial Namibia use the Master Agreement While year-on-year comparisons products, by reducing their demand of the International Swaps and can be problematic given the for more sophisticated assets and Derivatives Association, the Global introduction of three additional strategies to diversify returns. Master Repurchase Agreement countries to the group (see Investor education is a major and the Global Master Securities Methodology on p.38-39 for more component of these countries’ Lending Agreement, making them information), some broad trends financial development frameworks. more prepared to drive product can be noted: Kenya, Morocco and innovation and growth in the ‘Market transparency, tax and the Seychelles have improved their derivatives market. Other countries regulatory environment’ and scores across the index, while those aiming to attract outside investment ‘macroeconomic opportunity’ are the of Mauritius, Namibia and Tanzania must look at encouraging financial highest-ranking pillars. They are also have deteriorated. institutions to adopt international the ones with the smallest degree of South Africa continues to lead variation among countries. Nigeria’s standard master agreements. the index, supported by strong score has jumped considerably, Increasing the size and volume of financial market infrastructure and reflecting improvements in intraregional transactions can be a a robust legal framework. However, administrative efficiency of step towards wider use of these. its macroeconomic performance has the tax system, as well as the Foreign exchange liquidity remains worsened. Additionally, it no longer implementation of tax incentives low in Africa, with just three tops the index across all six pillars, and exemptions for capital markets countries (South Africa, Kenya and having been overtaken by Kenya on activities. In contrast, Uganda’s Ghana) recording interbank foreign ‘access to foreign exchange’ and by above-average withholding tax exchange turnover above $20bn. Nigeria in ‘market transparency, tax rate and other policies ‘discourage But markets are becoming more 10 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Acknowledgements Absa Group Limited Jeff Gable, Chief Economist open. The central banks of Nigeria, George Asante, Head of Markets (Africa ex. SA) Morocco and Egypt are taking steps Garth Klintworth, Global Head of Markets to liberalise their exchange rates, while Kenya, the Seychelles and OMFIF Zambia are relaxing capital controls. Danae Kyriakopoulou, Chief Economist and Head of Research Ben Robinson, Deputy Head of Research Overall liquidity is generally low, Bhavin Patel, Economist with 15 countries having equity Kat Usita, Economist market turnover of less than 10% Max Roch, Research and Policy Analyst of market capitalisation, and 10 Pierre Ortlieb, Research Assistant countries having bond turnover of less than 10% of outstanding bonds. However, policies to improve market depth and activity are The team consulted more than 50 policy-makers, regulators and market practitioners across African financial markets in writing this being implemented. Online trading report, whom we thank for their views and opinions. Although some platforms and the development of requested anonymity, we thank the following for their views and derivatives products have improved opinions: Nigeria’s performance. Sheila Abrahams, Policy and Regulation Consultant, Johannesburg Stock Liberalising financial structures Exchange and pursuing greater integration Sunil Benimadhu, Chief Executive, Stock Exchange of Mauritius with global markets can have Enid Busingye, Equity Sales Trader, SBG Securities, Stanbic Bank, Uganda disruptive effects in the short term. South Africa’s open and highly Jacqueline Irving, Senior Sector Economist, Sector Economics and Development Impact Department, International Finance Corporation, liquid foreign exchange market World Bank Group has exposed it to capital outflows, George Kwatia, Tax Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers Ghana reflecting’ concerns about the country’s macroeconomic trajectory. Vipin Mahabirsingh, Managing Director, Central Depository & Settlement, Mauritius However, supporting liberalisation and openness is necessary to help Peter Moses, Research Analyst, Cordros Capital, Nigeria the continent transition, diversify Anica Nerlich, Financial Analyst, Global Macro and Market Research and develop. Survey respondents Department, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group highlighted the importance of a Rui Gonçalves Oliveira, Head of Asset Management, Banco Fomento gradual and coordinated approach to Angola developing financial markets. Isaac Sekitoleko, Senior Planning and Risk Officer, Capital Markets Authority, Uganda Nonde Sichilima, Manager Market Supervision, Securities and Exchange Commission, Zambia Madelein Smith, Managing Director, Namibia Equity Brokers Kaodi Ugoji, Associate Executive Director, Corporate Development, FMDQ OTC Securities, Nigeria We also thank individuals from the following institutions: International Finance Corporation, Africa Finance Corporation, Bank of West African States, Bank of Uganda, Bank of Mauritius, Mauritius Commercial Bank, Orbit Securities, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Nigerian and Ghanaian Securities and Exchange Commissions, Grant Thornton, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 11
Pillar 1: Market depth 33°55’51”S | 18°51’16”E 12 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Regional effort to boost listings and liquidity African countries are implementing policies to bolster regional stock market integration and encourage expansion. However, low liquidity, few prospects for new listings and lack of product diversity present significant obstacles to capital market growth across the continent. Figure 1.1: Direct market access improves Nigeria’s score Ranking of Pillar 1 categories, max = 500 (LHS) Harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS) 500 100 450 90 400 80 350 70 300 60 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 South Africa Seychelles Botswana Ivory Coast Ethiopia Senegal Egypt Tanzania Mauritius Nigeria Kenya Angola Zambia Rwanda Mozambique Uganda Namibia Cameroon Morocco Ghana Product diversity Size of markets Liquidity Depth Primary dealer system Score (RHS) Sources: National securities exchanges, national central banks, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS) provide average scores for the indicators within each category. For full list of indicators, see Methodology on p.38-39. The harmonised score (RHS) is the average of all indicators across all categories, giving a total pillar score. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 13
Deep and liquid capital markets are which other securities can be priced. turnover of less than 10%. Overbearing fundamental to supporting economic According to a multilateral financial or inadequate regulation and oversight growth, creating domestic investment institution operating in Kenya, ‘Instead of capital markets play a major role. opportunities and attracting foreign of issuance of a few large bonds in key Regulators in one southern African and local capital. Pillar 1 measures this maturities that could provide good country reported they ‘do not have full by looking at market capitalisation and reference points, the primary market capacity to supervise the securities product diversity. The average market consists of many small-sized bonds business due to shortage of staff’. capitalisation of the 20 countries concentrated in the short end of the Stringent, inflexible and outdated covered by the index is just 56% of yield curve.’ Short-term treasury bills regulation adds significantly to GDP; even this low figure masks large account for around 40% of all local costs. This makes it less attractive variations between countries. currency debt in Kenya. This makes it for companies to list. ‘Cultivating Only three countries (South Africa, harder to build a broader market. a pipeline of new prospective Botswana and Ghana) have a market Secondary markets are generally issuers remains a stumbling block,’ capitalisation greater than 100% fragmented and illiquid, hindering according to survey respondents in of GDP, while in 14 countries it is transparency and price formation. This Kenya. Respondents in all countries lower than 50%. Ethiopia lacks a is reflected in low turnover figures for highlighted this as a concern, even securities exchange, apart from one bonds and equities. Ten countries have in relatively advanced markets like for commodities. There are no equities total bond market turnover of less than South Africa, where local financial listed on Angola’s exchange, and both 10%, and 15 countries have equity firms complain ‘there are very few new Cameroon and Mozambique have a entrants’ and that the main issuers are market capitalisation of less than 5% ‘the normal suspects’. of GDP. South Africa is the only country Thin secondary markets where the total value of listed equities is more than $100bn, at $1.1tn. This encourages buy-and-hold strategies, hindering secondary market Almost all countries (except Angola, liquidity. There were no trades in Cameroon and Ethiopia) have some corporate bonds in Zambia, Uganda, form of corporate bond market. These, Rwanda, Namibia, Egypt, Cameroon however, are typically small. Excluding Figure 1.2: Market and Angola over the last 12 months outstanding, listed on exchanges, $bn Total sovereign and corporate bonds South Africa, with more than $40bn size and liquidity at least. This is because of the lack of worth of listed corporate bonds, the Total turnover in bond market, active market makers and investors average value is just $707m. Total % of market capitalisation Total turnover of equities, holding on to assets that are scarce, listed government bonds outvalue Market capitalisation, % bonds outstanding according to respondents. corporate bonds by around six-to-one, at $313bn against $54bn. While most countries have a primary dealer system in place for % of GDP Given the relatively small volume of government bonds, the value of outstanding securities, trading values ‘horizontal repo’ (transactions between are generally low, with a lack of market South Africa 316 40 294 203.3 commercial banks) is low, resulting makers and investors tending to buy Botswana 228 1 8 1.4 in an inactive market. The lack of bonds and holding them to maturity. Ghana 118 1 53 46.5 centralised collection of data on these Excluding South Africa, which has Mauritius 91 5 5 0.9 Senegal 64 4 1 5.3 transactions means the total value of a bond turnover of almost 300% of Morocco 57 11 26 0.8 horizontal repo is unclear. However, market capitalisation, the average Rwanda 38 1 2 0.2 beyond South Africa and Nigeria (with value of traded bonds to those Kenya 31 7 40 12.4 average daily turnover of around outstanding was just 20% between July Uganda 29 0 0 2.2 $6.5bn and $300m, respectively), all 2017-July 2018. For all countries in Ivory Coast 26 4 1 5.3 other markets are largely inactive. High the index, the average value of traded Zambia 24 2 26 5.5 Namibia 22 2 2 2.7 costs, unclear property rights and lack equities to market capitalisation over Egypt 20 36 6 43.8 of information are some of the reasons those 12 months was even lower, at Tanzania 19 2 12 4.4 cited by survey respondents for this 6.4%. Seychelles 18 1 5 0.2 low uptake. Domestic limitations Nigeria 10 10 126 23.8 Mozambique 4 1 4 0.8 Some national policies aim to Structural issues contribute to the Cameroon 1 0 2 0.5 address these shortcomings. low level of African capital market Angola 0 0 56 7.5 Telecommunications and mining development. Many countries lack Ethiopia - - - - companies in Tanzania are required a benchmark yield curve for liquid, Sources: Thomson Reuters, National Stock Exchanges, to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock African Securities Exchanges Association, OMFIF analysis long-dated government bonds against Exchange and float 25% of their shares 14 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
to local investors, adding substantially mining and energy. ‘Secondary markets to market capitalisation. However, local investors often lack the capacity Market infrastructure is also improving. are generally The South African Reserve Bank has set to guarantee a full take-up, as in the up an electronic trading platform for fragmented and case of Vodacom in Tanzania and MTN in Ghana. Other countries require primary dealers in an effort to improve illiquid, hindering domestic institutional investors to hold liquidity and transparency in the transparency and government bond market. There are large amounts of their portfolios in plans to expand this to other market price formation. This local assets, boosting demand. As an example, new rules require insurance participants and for other securities, is reflected in low and pension funds in Namibia to invest including corporate bonds. turnover figures for a minimum of 45% of their assets in domestic securities by October 2018. Nigeria has introduced online trading platforms that allow investors to bonds and equities. Improvements in capital market execute trades on their own during Ten countries have development trading hours. Direct market access, total bond market whereby institutional investors can Several countries are implementing trade without passing their mandates turnover of less than policies to encourage capital market through brokers, is another important 10%, and 15 countries growth. Ghana, Kenya, South Africa and the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs step. The introduction of electronic have equity turnover initial public offerings and progress Mobilières (the stock exchange for towards derivatives trading will deepen of less than 10%.’ eight West African countries) are the Nigerian market over coming years. lowering barriers to entry for small Automated trading, which has already firms to try to expand the pipeline been introduced in Uganda, Rwanda of new listed companies. One way of and other countries, will also boost achieving this is the introduction of activity. an alternative market for small and medium-sized enterprises, which Regional integration can act as an ‘incubator’ for these Many national exchanges in Africa companies before they list on the main are small, illiquid and inefficient, and board. local investor capacity is often limited. Rwanda, Botswana and Ghana are Therefore, fostering closer integration among the countries introducing between national exchanges, or measures to bring companies into the creating and strengthening regional formal sector and to encourage them ones, is an important area of focus. to list on alternative exchanges. This Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and the long-term approach requires providing regional BRVM are exploring closer significant education and training to alignment between their exchanges companies about financial markets and to allow brokers from each to trade the benefits of listing. Education is one of the principle areas of focus for all directly on any of the other bourses. countries in this index. This is being considered through the West African Capital Markets Creating new products that are Integration programme. attractive to local and international investors is another key focus. A committee of stock exchanges Ghana plans to introduce real estate from the 16 countries that comprise investment trusts on the exchange the Southern African Development by the end of 2018, according to the Community is pursuing capacity- country’s Securities and Exchange building initiatives to stimulate Commission. Sukuk bonds are being cross-border trades. This includes developed in Nigeria, the West African harmonising listing requirements and Economic and Monetary Union, improving data dissemination to attract Mauritius and Kenya, among others. local and international investment. In The BRVM is targeting 16 new sukuk July 2018, finance ministers from SADC listings by 2020 to raise finance across countries approved the centralisation a range of sectors including telecoms, of secondary trading of government finance, agribusiness, construction, securities on their exchanges. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 15
Pillar 2: Access to foreign exchange 31.6295° N | 7.9811° W 16 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
On the path towards liberalisation Economies are becoming more open as central banks take steps to liberalise exchange rates and relax capital controls. Egypt and Nigeria show progress, but South Africa’s experience highlights the need for active management of vulnerabilities resulting from open markets. Figure 2.1: Volatile capital flows cost South Africa top spot Ranking of individual categories, max=100 (LHS); harmonised score, max=100 (RHS) 400 100 350 90 80 300 70 250 60 200 50 150 40 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 Ethiopia Seychelles Botswana Mauritius Namibia Kenya Nigeria Egypt Ghana Uganda Senegal Morocco Tanzania Rwanda South Africa Zambia Ivory Coast Angola Cameroon Mozambique Official exchange rate reporting standard Capital controls Interbank foreign exchange turnover Total portfolio investment flows to reserves Pillar 2 overall score (RHS) Sources: International Monetary Fund, national central banks, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS) provide rankings for the exchange rate reporting standard, capital controls, interbank foreign exchange turnover and the total portfolio investment flows to reserves. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’ indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 17
Given their relatively restricted Strategies for boosting interbank to top the list with 44%, from around sources of domestic capital, African foreign exchange liquidity 36% last year. financial markets are highly reliant on South Africa’s experience highlights Foreign reserves have been steady foreign investment. This is especially the risks of open capital markets. in most index economies since 2012, pronounced against a background With the US Federal Reserve raising with some exceptions. Oil-dependent of improving growth in advanced interest rates, pressures on emerging Nigeria and Angola have suffered from economies and continuing challenges markets are high. Africa, home to many weak commodity prices over the past across emerging markets. commodity-exporting economies, is few years, and have drawn on foreign Pillar 2 measures some of the factors especially exposed. Foreign exchange reserves to defend their currencies. that determine markets’ potential liquidity as measured by the amount Between 2012-17, Angola’s reserves attractiveness to international of foreign exchange traded in the fell by $14bn (45%), and Nigeria’s fell investors. These range from the level interbank market is low across the by $7bn (15%). Conversely, Egypt, of capital controls and exchange rate continent, making this one of the key Morocco and Mauritius have seen reporting standards that define the differentiating factors for variation in strong growth in reserves. ease with which investors can access countries’ scores in this pillar. them, to the level of foreign exchange The case of Egypt is the most The most active foreign exchange impressive; reserves almost tripled liquidity that affects investors’ ability market is in South Africa, with more between 2012-17, growing by $22bn. to deploy and repatriate capital. than $1.2tn annual turnover over Its reserves have reached record levels The need to manage volatility resulting 2017, according to central bank data. in 2018, aided by a $4bn Eurobond from openness is also addressed in the Kenya comes second with around sale in January that helped provide a pillar, as measured by central banks’ $34bn and Ghana follows with cash cushion and by setting up the ability to meet demand for currency $29bn, a significant increase from ‘Egypt Fund’ in July to help manage the by looking at the ratio of net portfolio last year’s $18bn. Morocco, Nigeria country’s sovereign wealth. flows to reserves. and Uganda also have strong levels of turnover above $10bn. Beyond these Towards a more open environment Kenya earns the highest marks in countries, foreign exchange turnover is Despite the short-term risks arising this pillar, a significant improvement relatively low. Some states are taking from open markets, underdeveloped from ranking sixth last year. The steps to improve the environment foreign exchange markets can be relaxation of capital controls boosted for foreign exchange transactions. sources of instability and obstacles its performance, as did improvement In 2017, Mozambique introduced its to long-term development. Investors of the country’s net portfolio flows to financial sector development strategy, who participated in OMFIF’s survey reserves ratio. South Africa has fallen which approves the standards and consider a gradual opening of capital to second place this year. While South procedures for foreign exchange markets underpinned by solid market Africa is top in the interbank foreign transactions, and changes processes infrastructure as an important step exchange turnover, capital controls regarding their registration and in strengthening Africa’s financial and official exchange rate reporting authorisation. markets. The exchange rate regime categories, it suffers from a fairly high ratio of net portfolio flows to reserves. The index rewards countries with and degree of openness to the flow Over 2017, it experienced portfolio a high level of foreign exchange of capital are crucial in shaping the investment outflows of $16.4bn, liquidity. However, while this can foreign investment environment. against $50.5bn of reserves held by be an important element of well- Of the 20 index economies, five have the South African Reserve Bank. functioning and resilient markets, it a fixed regime, five an intermediate is also important that central banks regime, and 10 have freely floating South Africa has the highest daily observe prudent reserve management currencies. Among those with fixed foreign exchange turnover to annual strategies and can cope with sudden regimes, Ivory Coast and Senegal GDP ratio among emerging markets, capital outflows. In response to this use the West African CFA franc, and at 17.1%. This is significantly above need, index countries bolstered their Cameroon uses the Central African CFA average and around five times higher collective reserves to $233.4bn in than that recorded in other Brics franc, both of which are pegged to the 2017 from $192.6bn in 2012. countries (Brazil, Russia, India and euro. The remaining two, Botswana’s China). In the light of global trade More than half the reserves were held pula and the Namibian dollar, are fixed tensions, a slowdown in China and by three of the continent’s largest to the South African rand as part of the an unorthodox policy mix in the US, economies: South Africa, Nigeria and Common Monetary Area. Intermediate being one of the most liquid emerging Egypt. However, reserves as a share regimes exhibit greater variation, from markets has created vulnerabilities of GDP are highest in Africa’s smaller managed floats (Ethiopia), to floating in South Africa, as was demonstrated but more developed economies. Over systems with bands (Morocco, Angola) during this year’s emerging market 2017, this metric grew substantially in to yet other arrangements closer to sell-off. Mauritius, which overtook Botswana flexible rates (Egypt, Rwanda). 18 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
However, even those with floating to repatriate profits. Capital inflows Over the last year, Ivory Coast and currencies do not always exhibit full also grew, as evidenced by the demand Ethiopia moved towards single flexibility in movement of capital, and for January 2018’s $4bn Eurobond sale, exchange rates, boosting their score many index countries display high which was three times oversubscribed. in this pillar. The presence of multiple degrees of capital controls. These exchange rates (often a mix of official The Central Bank of Nigeria has taken include Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, and unofficial rates) can impede asset steps to improve liquidity and reduce Morocco, Mozambique, Rwanda and valuations and exacerbate exchange Tanzania. The degree of capital controls vulnerabilities arising from the floating rate risks. The quality and frequency has a relatively high correlation with of the naira. In April 2017 the CNB of exchange rate reporting also plays countries’ performance in the index. introduced the ‘investor and exporter an important role. Exchange rates are foreign exchange window’ to support Exchange rate regimes and capital reported daily and in a timely manner exchange rate flexibility and the controls in index countries have in most index countries, with some convergence of different exchange rate remained broadly steady – such exceptions. levels on the parallel market. This is systems change rarely. Still, there have reported to have significantly boosted Against the backdrop of improving been some developments indicating a portfolio inflows. financial market infrastructure to move towards greater openness. facilitate foreign capital inflows, Nigeria’s economic structure, The National Bank of Angola in January some countries are taking measures characterised by an external sector 2018 replaced its fixed exchange to attract investors. The Bourse dependent on basic commodities, regime with a floating exchange Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières makes it an exceptional case. An system with bands. Bank Al Maghrib, (the stock exchange for eight West exchange rate determined by market Morocco’s central bank, also moved African countries) organised several forces could be highly volatile in this towards a more flexible regime. In investment days with three roadshows structure, stressing the importance of 2017 the Central Bank of Nigeria in London, Johannesburg and New diversification policies to complement decided to float the naira (though York over 2018. But, as analysis in many restrictions still apply), while the moves towards openness. Pillars 3 and 4 shows, the presence of Central Bank of Egypt did the same to Gaps in exchange rate reporting are a local investor base and a strong tax the Egyptian pound in 2016. Kenya, not unique to Nigeria. Ghana and and regulatory regime are also crucial the Seychelles and Zambia have all Angola also suffer from dual and to engendering confidence in foreign taken steps to lower capital controls multiple exchange rates, respectively. investors to deploy their capital. over the past year. Greater flexibility has raised the possibility of heightened vulnerability Alternative option: Portfolio flows to reserves and volatility. The more flexible the Figure 2.2: Mauritius and Egypt most vulnerable to capital outflows regime, the greater the impact of Net portfolio Net portfolio investment investment to reserves,to % reserves, % market forces in determining the exchange rate. A move to a new regime 160 can also cause sharp corrections in other economic indicators. In Egypt, 140 the liberalisation of the pound 120 resulted in a sharp depreciation that led to soaring inflation, especially in 100 commodities. Some products recorded 80 price rises of more than 50%. Two years later, the situation is more 60 stable. While the pound has halved in 40 value since the float, its level has been steady for around a year. Additionally, 20 the move towards a floating pound, 0 0 0 together with the gradual lifting of Zambia Ethiopia Uganda Rwanda Ivory Coast Mauritius Egypt Nigeria Namibia Cameroon Angola Ghana Seychelles Botswana Senegal South Africa Kenya Morocco Tanzania Mozambique capital controls (which included the lifting of caps on foreign exchange transfers), has bolstered dollar trading on the interbank market. This is a significant improvement compared with previous dollar shortages that Source: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OM Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OMFIF analysis created problems for investors wishing Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 19
Pillar 3: Market transparency, tax and regulatory environment 24°32’47° S | 15°19’47° E 20 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Reforms spur improvements in regulation and transparency Several countries are creating a more transparent and well-regulated market, supported by an improving tax environment. This is vital for attracting foreign investment, encouraging domestic participation and aiding market development. Figure 3.1: Nigeria boasts most favourable market environment Ranking of individual categories, max = 800; harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS) 800 100 700 90 80 600 70 500 60 400 50 300 40 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 Seychelles Mauritius Ethiopia South Africa Namibia Egypt Nigeria Botswana Kenya Ghana Uganda Ivory Coast Tanzania Morocco Senegal Rwanda Zambia Angola Cameroon Mozambique Financial stability regulation Reporting and accounting standards Tax environment Financial information availability Market development Corporate action governance structure Protection of minority of shareholders Existence of credit rating Pillar 3 Harmonised score (RHS) Sources: Bank for International Settlements, International Financial Reporting Standards, Deloitte International Accounting Standard plus, World Bank Ease of Doing Business, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, ABSA, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS) provide rankings for financial stability regulation, tax environment, market development, minority shareholder protection, reporting/accounting standards, financial information availability, corporate action governance structure, existence of credit rating. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’ indicators, and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p38-39. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 21
Pillar 3 addresses improvements to the survey, said the regulatory transactions lack a framework for in Africa’s regulatory and tax environment is heading in the right exemptions. This view was reiterated environments, which play a critical role direction, citing the use of simple by respondents in the Ugandan in developing an attractive domestic and relatively low tax rates applied to securities market. capital market. A handful of countries returns on some investments. They Corporate governance, protection in Africa have focused on regulation also noted that government bonds of minority shareholders and quality to bolster market development and for non-residents are not subject to financial reporting are prerequisites attract foreign investors. income tax. However, a respondent for capital market development. Nigeria and South Africa score highly from another Big Four firm highlighted To support price discovery, timely, in this pillar. The former has made room for improvement, saying ‘the tax accurate and relevant data must be changes to its tax system which, regime is good for multinationals, but available. International credit ratings according to the central bank, will for smaller companies with second-tier also aid transparency. ‘broaden the tax base while improving audit firms there may be questions. the efficiency of tax administration The tax system is reasonably Rwanda fares well in terms of and regulation’. A large securities sophisticated, but I believe it actually transparency and regulatory firm in Nigeria noted that ‘ongoing inhibits growth. It should encourage strength, receiving the highest score amendments are likely to improve the more foreign investment.’ possible in the index for protection system’. Capital market transactions of minority shareholders. However, Uganda, which scores low on the there are discrepancies between are exempt from withholding taxes, tax indicator, has not undertaken while there are more than 20 tax the official rules and regulations on significant reforms. Public sector transparency and the reality of their treaties and agreements on double respondents noted that the current taxation with third countries. implementation. The country also lacks system’s structure discourages any corporate credit ratings from the Government bonds are subject to a tax market growth and development. main agencies, and scores relatively holiday on income earned. The withholding tax on government low for tax environment. Mauritius A senior figure in a Big Four securities is 20%, against a regional has 27 corporate ratings but only one accountancy firm in Ghana, responding average of 15%, and capital market sovereign rating. Ensuring regulatory consistency Figure 3.2: Only 10 index countries have corporate ratings The number of corporates rated by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Unlisted countries scored zero. In South Africa there is the perceived risk of ‘fragmentation’ of trading on 0 the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Morocco 7 due to the introduction of four new 1 3 Egypt domestic exchanges since 2016. The 1 0 country is, however, in the closing stages of implementing a ‘twin peaks’ regulatory framework to strengthen capital markets and aid their 1 development. This model separates regulatory functions between a 1 16 1 Nigeria Ghana 0 regulator that performs prudential 1 4 supervision and one that performs Kenya market conduct supervision. 1 0 Angola Instead of having a separate regulator 0 1 for banks, South Africa’s new structure 0 creates two ‘peaks’, ‘prudential 1 regulation’ and ‘good conduct’. The Namibia 1 0 0 Botswana Mauritius legislation is bolstered by the launch of the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, 5 0 15 which has a broader scope than its precursor, the Financial Services Board. 10 6 6 As one senior South African regulator South Africa 33 22 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 14
said, ‘The financial sector will be made safer through a tougher prudential Implementing international financial standards at too early a stage can ‘Creating a and market conduct framework. Many hamper expansion by raising costs supportive of these standards are in line with and complicating the transition. regulatory international commitments agreed Creating a supportive regulatory via the G20 and other processes.’ environment requires sensitivity environment Regulatory strength and consistency and flexibility, enabling market requires sensitivity are essential for creating confidence and motivating new participants, growth by ensuring regulations are not excessively burdensome, while and flexibility, especially foreign investors, to enter maintaining financial stability and best enabling market the market. practices. Countries do not always growth by ensuring get the balance right, but those that Financial reporting do adjust their policies accordingly regulations are Financial reporting levels vary across tend to fare well. Nigeria, which has not excessively the continent, though there have been widespread improvements over recent been criticised by survey respondents for heavy regulation, has made a burdensome, while years. International financial reporting concerted effort to alleviate the maintaining financial standards are required for domestic constraints on small and medium-sized stability and best public companies in 17 out of the 20 enterprise financing by expanding countries in the index. Both Ivory Coast the parameters for what constitutes practices.’ and Mozambique have transitioned collateral for credit, for example. It has from ‘permitted but not required’ to also improved its derivatives trading ‘required’ in the space of a year. Of framework. the three countries where IFRS are Despite this need for flexibility, a not required – Ethiopia, Egypt and robust regulatory environment is vital the Seychelles – only the latter two to attracting foreign investors, a point have generally accepted accounting repeated by many survey respondents. principles in place. International investors face higher Technological limitations and issues costs and greater uncertainty when with human resources hamper they have to follow different sets of institutions’ ability to report in an requirements across different markets. effective and timely manner. As one This can dissuade investors from central bank official said, ‘Reporting entering or increasing their presence skills and tools are just evolving, in these locations. Attracting foreign data rendition processes are in some investors is essential for facilitating cases manual, and regulators are growth, increasing access to credit and overwhelmed by manpower limitations supporting business in less developed and oversight tools.’ markets. Nevertheless, financial stability Investor diversification and the ability regulations have improved significantly to attract foreign capital are critical in many jurisdictions. Last year for providing a stable base for capital only seven countries in the index markets. The presence of foreign were implementing the Basel III investors can, in turn, help influence international regulatory banking policy-makers to undertake reforms. framework. This year there are 12, The need for participation of local with Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia, Egypt investors is equally important in and Ghana joining the ranks of the creating a larger and more liquid highest scorers. Angola and Senegal, market, and can provide stability new additions to the index, have during periods of international implemented Basel II. Cameroon and capital flight. Achieving this investor Ethiopia achieve low scores, having mix requires building an attractive only implemented Basel I. regulatory and tax environment. Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 23
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