A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte

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A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities
The roadmap to reducing
fossil fuel dependence
October 2021
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
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01
Why now?
                                            02
                                            The IEA’s net zero report: time to fast-track the
                                                                                                03
                                                                                                What the energy transition means for Dubai
                                            phase-out of fossil fuels                           and Manchester

04
Decarbonisation considerations for cities
                                            05                                                  06
                                            Conclusion: pathways                                Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

01   Why now?
                                                                        Why now?
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels

     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      The recent Net Zero report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), published in May, garnered headlines
01   Why now?                                         with its surprising conclusions. It called for a cessation of new fossil fuel exploration, and a concerted effort
                                                      to curtail production and use in generation. While many applauded the new view given the IEA’s close
                                                      connection to oil-producing countries, the report sparked a predictable backlash.
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               The report laid out a detailed roadmap for decarbonising the energy sector. By                              In other ways they are quite dissimilar: they have a different focus on sectors to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         providing over 400 milestones across all sectors and technologies, it identified a                          decarbonise; different political, policy, institutional and legal systems; and different
                                                      variety of paths that market players could take to get to a broadly similar end state:                      infrastructure legacies that will require adaptation. If Dubai is about invention,
                                                      a radical reduction in energy-related emissions by 2050.                                                    Manchester is about reinvention.

                                                      Deloitte wanted to explore what were some of the different paths suggested by the                           The choice of such apparent extremes is deliberate, in order to highlight the various
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             IEA, and what would need to change if specific locales were to adopt them.                                  options, opportunities and obstacles that will dictate the path forward.

                                                      While much of the impetus for energy transition will be at a national level, our focus
                                                      is on cities. Deloitte has developed an Energy Transition Index1 that assesses the
                                                      readiness of major cities in selected countries to move towards a low-emissions future.
                                                                                                                                                                  “If Dubai is about invention,
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities
                                                      We compare and contrast two cities in two countries that could not be more different:
                                                                                                                                                                     Manchester is about reinvention.”
                                                      Dubai in the UAE and (Greater) Manchester in the UK. At first glance, they share some
                                                      interesting similarities: They have roughly the same population, around three million
                                                      people, and similar national wealth levels (measured as GDP per capita), around
                                                      US$41,000. Neither city is the country’s capital, meaning they must set their own
05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                      course within a broader national economic and regulatory context.

06   Contact us
                                                      1
                                                           e analysed 22 cities in 17 countries: Australia (Melbourne and Sydney), Brazil (Sao Paulo), Canada (Toronto and Vancouver), China (Shanghai), Indonesia (Jakarta), Ireland (Dublin), Italy (Rome),
                                                          W
                                                          Japan (Tokyo), Portugal (Lisbon), The Netherlands (Amsterdam), New Zealand (Auckland), Saudi Arabia (Riyadh), Singapore, Spain (Barcelona), Sweden (Stockholm), United Arab Emirates (Dubai),
                                                          the United Kingdom (London and Manchester), and the United States (Los Angeles and Washington DC).
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

01   Why now?
                                                                        The IEA’s net zero report:
02   The IEA’s net zero report: time to
     fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels
                                                                            time to fast-track the
     What the energy transition means for
                                                                         phase-out of fossil fuels
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      In the desired outcome scenario in the IEA report, the consumption of fossil fuel—                Although there is a range of views about when demand for each of these fossil fuels
                                                      coal, oil and natural gas—falls from almost 80 per cent of total energy supply in 2020            will peak, to be followed by their decline, we compared the UN’s Inevitable Policy
01   Why now?                                         to slightly over 20 per cent by 2050, when fossil fuel use is confined to sectors where           Response (IPR) baseline scenarios to the IEA’s net zero numbers to highlight how much
                                                      clean tech options are not readily available, at facilities where abatement is installed,         faster the transition would have to happen under the IEA’s projections. See Figure 1.
                                                      and to goods where they are a key ingredient, such as plastics.
                                                                                                                                                        Figure 1. World fuel demand, UN IPR and IEA net zero projections to 2050
                                                      • Coal: The first to be phased out, having peaked in 2014. Unabated coal demand
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to                 drops by 90 per cent to just one per cent of total energy use in 2050.
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels
                                                                                                                                                                                     120

                                                                                                                                                  Energy demand in EJ (2020 = 100)
                                                      • Oil: Demand declines by 75 per cent, from 90 mb/d in 2020 to 24 mb/d in 2050.                                                100

                                                      • Natural gas: The last fossil fuel to see use significantly curtailed. Demand falls                                             80
                                                        by 55 per cent, to 1,750bn cubic metres.
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester
                                                                                                                                                                                       60

                                                                                                                                                                                       40

                                                                                                                                                                                       20

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2020              2030                    2040                 2050

                                                                                                                                                                                     Coal (UNPRI)      Coal (IEA)   Oil (UNPRI)   Oil (IEA)          Gas (UNPRI)    Gas (IEA)

                                                                                                                                                        Source: IEA, UN, Deloitte analysis
05   Conclusion: pathways

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A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      To achieve the rapid curtailment of fossil fuel use, the IEA suggests a timeline for fundamental and far-reaching changes that should happen in the four main sectors where
                                                      fossil fuels are used: electricity generation (and heat); industrial; buildings; and transport. See Figure 2.
01   Why now?
                                                      Figure 2: Key milestones on the IEA’s pathway to net zero

                                                                                 2025                                     2030                                    2035                                     2040                                       2050
                                                                  No new sales of fossil fuel boilers            Universal energy access             Most appliances and cooling                 50% of existing buildings                  More than 85% of buildings
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02
                                                                                                                                                     systems sold are best in class          retrofitted to zero‐carbon‐ready                  are zero‐carbon‐ready
                                                                                 2021                              All new buildings are
     fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels                                                                       zero‐carbon‐ready             50% of heavy truck sales are electric        50% of fuels used in aviation           More than 90% of heavy industrial
                                                                     No new unabated coal plants
                                                                                                          60% of global car sales are electric                                                     are low‐emissions                     production is low‐emissions
                                                                      approved for development                                                            No new ICE car sales
                                                                                                                                                                                            Around 90% of existing capacity in
                                                                  No new oil and gas levels fields          Most new clean technologies in              All industrial electric motor                                                  Almost 70% of electricity generation
                                                                                                                                                                                             heavy industries reaches end of
                                                                approved for development; no new         heavy industry demonstrated at scale              sales are best in class                                                      globally from solar PV and wind
                                                                                                                                                                                                    investment cycle
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester
                                                                  coal mines or mine extensions
                                                                                                                  1 020 GW annual solar           Overall net‐zero emissions electricity   Net‐zero emissions electricity globally
                                                                                                                    and wind additions                  in advanced economies
                                                                                                                                                                                              Phase‐out of all unabated coal
                                                                                                                Phase‐out of unabated coal
                                                                                                                                                                                                  and oil power plants
                                                                                                                 in advanced economies

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2045
                                                               40
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities                 35                                                                                                                                                         50% of heating demand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            met by heat pumps
                                                               30
                                                               25
                                                               20
                                                     Gt CO2

                                                               15
05   Conclusion: pathways                                      10
                                                                5
                                                                0
                                                                -5        2020                           2025                              2030                       2035                          2040                             2045                         2050

06   Contact us                                               Buildings      Transport        Industry     Electricity and heat       Other

                                                      Source: IEA
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      For any entity that was basing its phase-out of hydrocarbons on a more graduated
                                                      timeline, the adoption of the IEA’s targets will require it to move faster and more
01   Why now?                                         ambitiously. The decade 2020-2030 will be decisive, when much of the groundwork
                                                      must be prepared and the required technologies scaled and deployed.

                                                      The IEA estimates that the total annual investment in energy will need to rise to over
                                                      US$ 4 trillion by 2030, compared to just over US$1 trillion in the years 2016-2020.
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               New power plants, new factories, building retrofits, EV charging networks, and
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         energy-efficient white goods are just some of the areas where new infrastructure and
                                                      equipment will be required.

                                                      The IEA acknowledges that the world will continue to consume fossil fuels for decades
                                                      to come. Countries like the UAE are relying on future fossil fuel revenues to fund their
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             energy transition.

                                                      Yet, expectations could change abruptly, especially in developed countries, if there
                                                      are sharp drops in demand. We are already starting to see the introduction of more
                                                      stringent regulatory regimes, such as reductions in fossil fuel subsidies and increases
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities        in carbon taxes; changes in investor appetites and willingness to finance fossil fuels;
                                                      a rise in legal actions and resulting liabilities; and a shift in consumer preferences
                                                      in Western countries. The ‘slow and steady’ approach that minimises economic
                                                      disruption may not hold.

                                                      And finally, the IEA’s timelines will not be met without strong and effective
05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                      partnerships. Governments need to act and bolster their long-term pledges with
                                                      specific near-term policies and measures. Corporates whose business models are
                                                      based on the use of fossil fuels must now rethink them. And people should be made
                                                      aware of how the choices they make every day contribute to the global demand for
                                                      polluting fuels—and should be encouraged to shift to something greener.
06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

01   Why now?
                                                                What the energy transition means
02   The IEA’s net zero report: time to
     fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels
                                                                       for Dubai and Manchester
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence October 2021 - Deloitte
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      The roadmap in the IEA report contains over 400 detailed milestones spanning all          Dubai has a certain amount of autonomy within the federal system of the UAE. The
                                                      sectors and technologies. Various factors will shape the speed, scope and options         centralised, coordinated approach in Dubai means that the centre of decision-making
01   Why now?                                         available for energy transition in different parts of the world: their levels of fossil   is at the state level, not at the corporate level. This can enable faster decision-making
                                                      fuel dependence, and differing sources of comparative advantage. Some cities and          and rapid response to changes as circumstances dictate.
                                                      countries are further than others along the transition path.
                                                                                                                                                Dubai has made a number of pledges on climate change and net zero to various
                                                      Implementing the transition will happen largely at the city level. Cities account for     international bodies, with a focus on the decarbonisation of electricity and transport.
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               approximately 66 per cent of global energy supply—and are where 75 per cent of all
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generated. They are increasingly where people          The city has its own energy strategy, the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050, which is
                                                      live—about 55 per cent of the world’s population today and forecast to be 70 per cent     more ambitious than the federal plan for the UAE. Its aim is to produce 75 per cent of
                                                      in 2050. Cities are the powerhouses of economic growth.                                   Dubai’s energy from clean sources by 2050. The interim target, to 2030, is for a mix
                                                                                                                                                of natural gas (61 per cent), clean coal (7 per cent), solar (25 per cent) and nuclear (7
                                                      They don’t often have free rein to shape their own destiny, but “[c]ities and             per cent). As part of this strategy, it is the first Arab Gulf state to commission a coal-
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             subnational government have greater ability than national governments to create and       fired power plant. The $3.4 bn Hassyan plan comprises four 600 MW units whose
                                                      lead multi-sectoral networks involving various levels of government, private sector       operations are being phased in from 2020 through 2023.
                                                      and civil society.”
                                                                                                                                                Dubai has a number of important strengths it can play to in its transition away from
                                                      Dubai, UAE                                                                                fossil fuels. See Figure 3 for our assessment of Dubai.
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities        Glitzy, cosmopolitan Dubai is the largest city in the UAE, and the best known. The
                                                      economy of Dubai itself relies very little on oil and gas directly—its share of GDP is
                                                      only about one per cent. The government has sought to develop Dubai as a regional
                                                      financial, business, and logistics hub, and has invested heavily in its tourism and
                                                      service sectors.

05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                      Yet its location as the central trading hub in the UAE, a petrostate, and in the wider
                                                      Gulf region means that, indirectly at least, oil and gas markets will continue for some
                                                      time to be the driving force for Dubai’s economic development. The IEA estimates
                                                      however that annual per capita income from these commodities could fall by as much
                                                      as 75 per cent by the 2030s.
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A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      Figure 3. How we scored Dubai’s ability to transition      The city uses natural gas for most of its energy use—something it will need to reduce
                                                                                                                 in future. It has enormous potential for solar and could do a lot more to increase its
01   Why now?                                                 Social
                                                                                                                 installed capacity of renewables— beyond its 25 per cent target for 2030.
                                                                                          • Information flow
                                                                                                                 The city’s economic development took off in the 1980s, meaning that much of its
                                                                                         • Standard of living
                                                                                                                 infrastructure is relatively recent and able to accommodate new technologies. This
                                                                                             • Energy access     gives it good scores for innovation ability and the smartness of its grid.
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels            Technological                                           Its Green economic potential scores lower due to the percentage of its trade in green
                                                                                         • Innovation ability    products; the relatively low proportion of its workforce employed in green industries
                                                                                                 • Smart grid    (despite services being an important part of its economy overall); and its ranking on
                                                                                                                 Green Complexity Potential, which rates the economy’s future competitiveness in
                                                                                  • Clean electricity capacity
                                                                                                                 green products.
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester
                                                        Environmental                                            Our overall view is that Dubai has one of the more difficult road maps in energy
                                                                                                 • Air quality
                                                                                                                 transition but it is well positioned to make the change. Its relatively new infrastructure
                                                                                      • Renewable potential      is comparatively energy efficient, and it has the potential to develop a world-beating
                                                                                           • Climate impacts     capability in solar, hydrogen and CCS technologies. However, its location in an oil-
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities                                                                   and-gas-orientated part of the world exposes it to contingencies that could severely
                                                                                                                 impact its ability to manoeuvre.
                                                            Economic
                                                                                  • Fossil fuel independence

                                                                                     • Green econ potential

                                                                                       • Financing capability
05   Conclusion: pathways

                                                             Political
                                                                                       • Institutional quality

                                                                                  • Decarbonisation pledges

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                                                                                                • Regulatory

                                                      Source: Deloitte analysis
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      Manchester, UK                                                                            Figure 4. Manchester’s energy use, 2018 to 2038
                                                      Greater Manchester is starting from a relatively strong position: it is a thriving city
01   Why now?                                         in an OECD country. Its economy is already highly diversified, and its power grid is              2018
                                                      relatively decarbonised. As the largest urban area in the north of England, it is the        100% = 51.5TWh                 18%
                                                      economic hub of the region.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          36%
                                                      Its energy consumption is similar to the national breakdown. Buildings account for 36
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               per cent of use, transport for 35 per cent, industry 11 per cent and electricity 18 per
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         cent. See Figure 4.
                                                                                                                                                                        11%

     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester
                                                                                                                                                                                     35%

                                                                                                                                                        2038
                                                                                                                                                   100% = 39.2TWh
                                                                                                                                                                               21%
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

                                                                                                                                                                                                           43%

                                                                                                                                                                        11%
05   Conclusion: pathways

                                                                                                                                                                                     25%

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                                                                                                                                                   Buildings     Transport       Industry   Electricity

                                                                                                                                                Source: Electricity North West, Cadent
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      The local authorities in the region have announced their own plans, prioritising a 50        Figure 5. How we scored Manchester’s ability to transition
                                                      per cent reduction in carbon emissions from buildings, energy use and transport by
01   Why now?                                         2025, and reaching net zero by 2038, 12 years ahead of the national government’s
                                                                                                                                                           Social
                                                      target. The plans also envision an overall reduction in annual energy use, from 51.5                                             • Information flow
                                                      TWh in 2018 down to 39.2 TWh in 2038.
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Standard of living

                                                      The decarbonisation of home heating will need sustained attention. Over 80 per cent                                                 • Energy access

     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               of buildings use natural gas for heating and cooking, one of the highest rates in our
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         cohort.                                                                                         Technological
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Innovation ability

                                                      Most of Greater Manchester’s housing stock was built before the 1980s, and                                                              • Smart grid
                                                      approximately a third before WWII. Future options for energy transition will likely
                                                                                                                                                                               • Clean electricity capacity
                                                      include a mix of electrification, hydrogen, heating networks and hybrid options. But
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             the region will need to work in alignment with the national strategies, infrastructure
                                                      and incentives to craft options that are attractive to residents of its 1.1 million homes.     Environmental
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Air quality

                                                      Efforts to electrify city fleets and to encourage more public and active transport use                                       • Renewable potential

                                                      are moving forward quickly. Almost 100 per cent of the fuels used in transport are                                                • Climate impacts

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities        petroleum products, due to high personal vehicle use and the prevalence of diesel as
                                                      the main fuel for freight and commuter rail systems.
                                                                                                                                                         Economic
                                                                                                                                                                               • Fossil fuel independence
                                                      The central government has committed to ending new car sales of internal
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Green econ potential
                                                      combustion vehicles (approximately 2.5m vehicles per year nationally) by 2030. The
                                                      Greater Manchester Transport Strategy 2040 (published before the government’s net                                             • Financing capability
05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                      zero plan) aims for 50 per cent of daily trips to be made by mass transport or active
                                                      modes, through an expansion of bus and light rail systems, and an increase in the                   Political
                                                      cycling infrastructure.                                                                                                       • Institutional quality

                                                                                                                                                                               • Decarbonisation pledges
                                                      See Figure 5 for our scores.
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                                                                                                                                                                                             • Regulatory

                                                                                                                                                   Source: Deloitte analysis
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      The UK economy is very diversified, and its oil and gas industry is small, occupying
                                                      around one per cent of GDP.
01   Why now?
                                                      Manchester’s renewable energy consumption is the same as the UK national
                                                      average: 13 per cent. Interestingly, the UK punches above its weight when it comes to
                                                      deployment of solar energy and Greater Manchester’s plans include a large amount
                                                      of rooftop solar in its planned energy mix.
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         A potential challenge will be in how the city finances its transition. It can benefit from
                                                      the central government’s planned Levelling Up agenda and the provision of funding
                                                      that is likely to be made available. Unlike Dubai, which can use government-related
                                                      entities to fulfil larger national goals, Greater Manchester will need to incentivise
                                                      private sector companies to participate, and to devise ways of getting its citizens to
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             adopt lifestyle changes.

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

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A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

01   Why now?
                                                                               Decarbonisation
02   The IEA’s net zero report: time to
     fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels
                                                                        considerations for cities
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      A comparison of the two cities, with two very different sets of ambitions and
                                                      advantages, demonstrates the specific constraints and contexts that are at play. The
01   Why now?                                         IEA report’s 400-plus suggestions offer a variety of paths to energy transition. Cities
                                                      will need to have a clear understanding of their particular strengths, weaknesses,
                                                      opportunities and threats when crafting their net zero plans:

                                                      • The level and form of government involvement, the city’s capabilities, and its ability
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to                 to set a credible roadmap and implement will be critical;
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels
                                                      • The role of the citizens, how willing they are to support the transition, and how
                                                        much they are expected to pay for it; and

                                                      • The commercial and industrial organisations that will need to make meaningful
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                               changes to their business models and, in some cases, lead the charge.

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      Figure 6 suggests some key considerations that must be woven into any plan of action.

01   Why now?                                         Figure 6. Considerations when charting a path to net zero
                                                                                                                                              Neutral
                                                                                     Decision-making is centralised                                     Decision-making requires buy-in
                                                            Political system
                                                                                           or limited to few groups                                     of a range of interest groups

     The IEA’s net zero report: time to                  Level of government                     National-level plan                                    Regional or local-level plan
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels

                                                              Economy size                                    Small                                     Big

                                                        Fossil fuel dependence                   Highly dependent                                       Highly independent
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester
                                                         Developmental level                              Emerging                                      Developed

                                                       Diversification potential                                 Low                                     High
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities
                                                                                                 Low levels of ‘soft’                                   High levels of ‘soft’
                                                         Institutional support
                                                                                                    infrastructure                                      infrastructure

                                                        Sectors to decarbonise                               Harder                                     Easier
05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                         Companies involved                            State-owned                                      Investor-owned

                                                            Funding sources                         Private markets                                     Public markets

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                                                         Manchester         Dubai

                                                      Source: Deloitte analysis
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      Government involvement is key, at different levels. Whether it’s to establish national        Manchester does not have a sovereign wealth fund to deploy although it should get
                                                      policies for economic transformation, or to set targets or standards or incentives for        funding from the central government as part of the broader Levelling Up agenda. Its
01   Why now?                                         buildings and fuel, government action can dictate how fast or slow, and how joined up         proximity to one of the world’s largest financial centres, the City of London, should
                                                      or piecemeal the energy transition efforts will be.                                           enable it to obtain further funding for energy transition. Its economy is already well
                                                                                                                                                    developed and diversified and its private sector is extensive and able to drive the
                                                      Dubai is an example of a top-down approach. The government is actively involved in            transition forward. It just needs to have the right regulatory, institutional and financial
                                                      setting multi-sectoral, long-term plans to diversify the economy. It has large stakes in      incentives in place.
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               key companies.
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels
                                                      In Manchester, by contrast, the government will not have the same role: It needs
                                                      to establish the road map, and create the right frameworks and incentives. As the
                                                      decarbonisation efforts are largely in consumer-facing sectors, customer-centric
                                                      design and innovation is required, and where benefits will be shared mutually to
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             enable citizens and companies to make things happen.

                                                      Dubai’s transition will be more fundamental, but it has two key advantages that it can
                                                      leverage to shift more quickly: its weather and its wealth. Its climate and relatively low
                                                      population density put it 6th in a global ranking of 61 countries for solar potential. Yet,
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities        at present, it only ranks 19th in terms of installed capacity. Here it should go faster
                                                      and bigger with renewables—at this point, they are not only cheaper than fossil fuels,
                                                      but they play to Dubai’s natural advantages.

                                                      Dubai also has formidable financial firepower that it can deploy through the
                                                      Investment Corporation of Dubai (a sovereign wealth fund), the UAE’s SWF, the
05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                      Emirates Investment Authority, and other sources.

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A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

01   Why now?
                                                                        Conclusion: pathways
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels

     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                      Despite their different strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a few       Form partnerships: Cities are where action needs to happen, but they cannot do it
                                                      steps are relevant to all cities:                                                        on their own. The transition will “involve simultaneous transformation of several vital,
01   Why now?                                                                                                                                  interconnected infrastructure systems” and this requires a system-wide approach,
                                                      Rethink existing plans: The thirty-year horizon to 2050 to establish the essential       meaning collaboration and partnerships at all levels.
                                                      preconditions for success might now have compressed to about ten years. The IEA
                                                      recommends ceasing all new development of oil and gas fields immediately.                Move faster: Both cities have net zero plans that are more ambitious and with
                                                                                                                                               shorter timeframes than the national plans. The technologies needed to meet their
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to               For those in fossil fuel-related industries thinking that the key threat was from        respective goals – methane capture and solar generation for Dubai; alternative
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels         government mandates and related regulation, recent events suggest that the               heat sources (electric pumps, biofuels, heat networks) and transport types for
                                                      pressure could come from multiple sources: the legal system, the boardroom,              Manchester—are available and deployed profitably at scale elsewhere.
                                                      investors, insurers and even consumer actions. The drastic drop in demand caused in
                                                      2020 due to COVID could be a preview of the future state of oil markets.                 The IEA calls for a ban on sales of fossil fuel boilers by 2025. The current UK
                                                                                                                                               government plan to have 600,000 heat pumps installed per year by 2028 would
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester                             The economics of power provision are changing quickly. Take the example of Dubai’s       need to be much more than the 22,000 or so currently installed. This will need a big
                                                      clean coal plant. When the deal was made, the agreed price of about 5 cents per          increase in training and certification of qualified installers. Can the UK accelerate its
                                                      kilowatt-hour was cheaper than the price from local solar farms. That is no longer       switch to decarbonised heat sources to meet the IEA timelines?
                                                      the case.
                                                                                                                                               By having a good understanding of the transition, cities and their civic and
04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities        Current strategies should be stress-tested across shorter timeframes, and across
                                                      social, technological, environmental, economic and political domains. The aim is to
                                                                                                                                               commercial partners can take advantage of the opportunities in specific markets,
                                                                                                                                               such as transport, small-scale energy systems or building decarbonisation, or in
                                                      ensure there is a clear view of advantages and disadvantages and where additional        specific business lines, such as energy efficiency retrofits, or electric vehicle charging.
                                                      capabilities must be brought in.
                                                                                                                                               The IEA’s message is clear: The transition is coming, whether or not governments,
                                                      Then, create a modular set of strategy elements that are resilient and flexible across   cities, companies or citizens are ready for it. The pace is about to pick up. The
05   Conclusion: pathways
                                                      a variety of plausible timelines. Identify no-regret moves and robust moves and          roadmap is clear. It is time for all parties to come together to make it happen.
                                                      prioritise the sequence.

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

01   Why now?
                                                                        Contact us
     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels

     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities

05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
A Tale of Two Cities | The roadmap to reducing fossil fuel dependence

                                                                             Mark Lillie                                               Daniel Grosvenor                                         Simon Bedford
                                                                             Partner                                                   Power, Utilities and                                     Partner
01   Why now?                                                                mlillie@deloitte.co.uk                                    Renewables Leader                                        sbedford@deloitte.co.uk
                                                                                                                                       dgrosvenor@deloitte.co.uk

     The IEA’s net zero report: time to
02   fast-track the phase-out of fossil fuels                                Bart Cornelissen                                          Justine Bornstein
                                                                             Energy, Resources                                         Senior Insight Manager
                                                                             & Industrials Leader:                                     jbornstein@deloitte.co.uk
                                                                             Middle East
                                                                             bpcornelissen@deloitte.com
     What the energy transition means for
03   Dubai and Manchester

04   Decarbonisation considerations for cities
                                                                        Deloitte is helping clients to survive and thrive in a net zero economy, supporting them to: set their strategy; innovate their business
                                                                        models and identify growth opportunities; design their enablers; and orchestrate their transformation.

                                                                        Contact our team for more information.
05   Conclusion: pathways

06   Contact us
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