A POST-MORTEM ON 2020 - ELECTION RESULTS & ANALYSIS: Ryan Houck - Florida Association ...
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ELECTION RESULTS & ANALYSIS:
A POST-MORTEM ON 2020
Ryan Houck
RESULTS
Turnout
(TIME / November 5, 2020)
(U.S. Election Project)
County Map: Florida in 2016: Trump v. Clinton (McLaughlin & Associates)
County Map: Florida in 2020: Trump v. Biden (McLaughlin & Associates)
Immediate Takeaways:
Trump lost ground in the suburbs and gained ground in rural areas, as this
Clay County precinct heat map demonstrates:
2016 Election in Clay 2020 Election in Clay Margin shift from 2020
Trump 69.9% Trump 67.8%
Clinton 25.9% Biden 30.8%
(MCI Maps)
Immediate Takeaways:
Duval County went blue for the first
time since Carter, but there was a lot of
ticket-splitting. The Clerk of Court race
shows this occurred most heavily in
white suburbs and along the beaches.
Midyette Margin
versus
Biden Margin
2020 Duval County Clerk of
Court General Election
Jody Phillips 51.4%
Jimmy Midyette 48.6%
(MCI Maps)Immediate Takeaways: Trump made significant improvements elsewhere, including South Florida and Orange and Osceola Counties. § Trump lost Miami-Dade by only 7-points, after losing it by 30 in 2016. § He improved his performance in Osceola County by 11-points Democrats won a solid majority of Hispanic voters nationwide and 68% of Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida, though the Biden campaign had hoped for 80 percent. § Similarly, exit polls suggest Trump may have improved on his 2016 performance among Puerto Ricans in Central Florida by 11-points. (Miami Herald / November 12, 2020)
Immediate Takeaways: Rick Scott established and Trump built upon Republican gains among Puerto Rican voters, as well as South Florida’s Nicaraguan, Colombian, Venezuelan and Cuban-American communities. Trump also made gains among white women (+2 percent), Hispanic women (+5 percent), and Black women (+9 percent). Trump made similar gains among Hispanic, Asian and African American voters writ large. Within some subgroups, gains reached well into the double-digits. (The Guardian / Sat 14 Nov 2020)
Immediate Takeaways: The only race/gender constellation among which Trump did not make gains? White men, who he won by 23-points instead of 31-points. What may look like “blips” in 2020 continue a trend that began in 2006.
Declines in Democratic electoral shares in
Presidential elections: 2008, 2012 and 2016:
The Democrats' vote share declined every presidential cycle in 18 observed demographic
categories. There was no category in which Democrats consistently improved.
(New York Times / NOV. 8, 2016)Declines in Democratic electoral shares in
Midterm elections: 2006, 2010, 2014:
The Democrats' vote share declined every midterm cycle in 16
observed demographic categories.
(New York Times / NOV. 8, 2016)Immediate Takeaways: Contrary to popular opinion, at the same time Democrats were experiencing attrition among minorities, the GOP experienced attrition with whites throughout Trump’s time in office. § In fact, Trump captured a slightly smaller share of whites in 2016 than Romney in 2012 but compensated with stronger performances among Hispanics and by concentrating his votes in the right states. (NBC News / Aug. 6, 2020)
Immediate Takeaways:
Do you approve or disapprove of this person's response to the protests?
(Opinium / Jul 9, 2020)Immediate Takeaways:
Do you think President Trump’s response to the
demonstrations around the country has ____
(npr / June 5, 2020)Immediate Takeaways: 2020 Presidential Results by FL Congressional District Donald Trump 51.2% 15 Seats Joe Biden 47.7% 12 Seats (MCI Maps)
The Early Hypothesis
The Early Hypothesis: In South Florida, there appears to be a growing cultural (rather than partisan) objection to certain aspects of the Democratic platform and coalition, namely “Socialism.” Yes, Hispanic voters seem to have rejected socialism, particularly those of Cuban, Colombian, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan descent. However, that is not the entire story. The “socialism” message does not have the same cachet among Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida, where Trump also made significant gains.
The Early Hypothesis:
COVID-related
shutdowns
Other issues that appear
to have contributed to The
Perception Permanent
improvements in Trump’s of Hostility Closure of
performance among to Small
Hispanic voters including Entreprene Businesses
economic issues: urship
Job Losses
(Politico / Nov 21, 2020)The Early Hypothesis:
Use Latinx
Have heard of Latinx 3%
20%
Cultural Issues: The perception that COVID-related Do not
rules were not evenly applied, like closing churches use Latinx
while large public protests continued; efforts that
were perceived as politically correct or out-of-touch, Have not
such as the use of the non-gendered term “Latinx” 76% heard
of Latinx
which 97 percent of Hispanics do not use.
(Pew Research Center / Nov 8, 2020)The Early Hypothesis: Safety Issues: The perception that Democrats were tolerant or even supportive of rioting and property destruction. Hispanics were nearly as receptive to Republican messages on law enforcement and jobs as whites. Increasingly, it seems that Hispanics’ working-class identity may be more important than racial identity. Outreach or Engagement: Many Democrats have been critical of Joe Biden’s campaign for failing to fully engage Hispanic voters.
The Trouble with Definitions
“There are people in this community who happen to be Hispanic
— from Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, the Dominican
Republic or wherever — but their primary political identity is not
Hispanic. Their primary political identity is worker.”
Marco Rubio"Many Hispanics view the Democrats and their allies as
moralistic snobs. No one wants to come home after a long day
of work to be ‘wokesplained’ that they need to change their
language, stop buying Goya, and that they're bad people if
they're concerned about border security.”
Giancarlo Sopo,
Hispanic Communication Strategist for the Trump campaign
(former Democrat)
(Politico / Nov 21, 2020)Long Term Implications
Long Term Implications:
This cycle raised more questions than it answered,
but here are the right questions:
§ Can Democrats recapture their margins among Hispanics, Black and Asian voters?
§ Can Republicans regain the suburban white voters Trump lost while continuing to make
inroads among blue collar Latinos?
§ Did Trump’s gains among Latinos normalize voting Republican in certain communities?
§ Once COVID recedes as an issue, will Republicans lose the economic messages that
helped them with working class voters this cycle?2020 and Polling: What’s wrong?
2020 and Polling: What’s wrong? In the 1980s, a pollster could safely assume that 20% of demographically similar voters (let’s say white men over 55 living in rural areas) would “talk to you.” Whereas a pollster in the 80s might expect to complete 1 interview for every 5 calls, the ratio is now closer to 1:100. Instead, we have what researchers call a “convenience sample.” Essentially, those who consent to share their time and opinions. This can severely affect margins for error because the samples are not truly representative. (Hill Research)
2020 and Media: What’s changing?
2020 and Media: What’s changing?
The shift toward streaming continues
Much of this is “uncaptured”
by advertising. For example,
you can’t buy advertising on
Netflix, so it’s “dead time”
14.6B 14.8B from a messaging standpoint.
12.3B
10.9B
8.8B 9.6B
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 (Roku Internal Data, 2020)2020 and Media: What’s changing?
However, the growth in ad-supported streaming is accelerating
Average Daily Ad-Supported Viewers | Change Since First Week of the Year 2019 2020
50%
45%
40% +37%
35%
30%
25% +32%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
of 1/5 of 2/2 of 3/1 of 3/29 of 4/26 of 5/24 of 6/21 of 7/19 of 8/16 of 9/13 of 10/11
(Roku Internal Data, 2020)Moderate America
Moderate America
Democrats have been gaining whites (slowly) for several cycles and
Republicans have been gaining minorities (slowly) for several cycles as well.
The question this election settled was two-fold:
§ Would declining GOP support among whites (particularly suburban whites)
outweigh GOP gains among minorities?
§ Is America more moderate than its political parties seem to suggest?
Across the country, voters seemed to assert moderation.
(WSJ / Nov. 16, 2020)The Hope?
The Hope? The country may be more “polarized” than ever. But most Americans don’t want it that way. There is a silent majority in America and that majority is moderate. It is not strident on Facebook; it is not present on Twitter; its opinion is seldom represented at all on cable news. America is not supposed to be a battleground between two enclaved tribes, staring at each other across a field of bitterness and resentment. We should not feel that losing an election means losing our country.
The Hope?
The Hope? You.
The Hope? You. We must lower the stakes of national elections by returning decision making power to local communities. Where serious and active dissent generally results in compromise and conciliation. If red counties were generally permitted to govern red, and blue counties generally permitted to govern blue, we would not feel that the other party’s capture of Congress and the Presidency were so detrimental to national survival. Home rule isn’t just good for America, it may save America.
ELECTION RESULTS & ANALYSIS:
A POST-MORTEM ON 2020
Ryan HouckJust for fun
Wondering how
Democrats could
have carried Florida,
North Carolina
and South Carolina?
(MCI Maps)You can also read
