A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION - Suburban Alliance
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A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION PREPARED FOR Suburban Alliance February 2020 1
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Important Notice © MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any form by any means without the written permission of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd. All Rights Reserved. All methods, processes, commercial proposals and other contents described in this document are the confidential intellectual property of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd and may not be used or disclosed to any party without the written permission of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd. MacroPlan staff responsible for this report: Mark Courtney, General Manager – QLD Yvette Burton, Senior Consultant Harry Courtney, Analyst Jack Courtney, Analyst Contact Level 1 310 Edward Street Brisbane QLD 4000 (07) 3221 8166 info@macroplan.com.au 2
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION ABOUT THE SUBURBAN ALLIANCE www.suburbanalliance.com.au The Suburban Alliance is a not-for-profit collaboration of Research project sponsor: people and businesses who believe that opportunities for The Residential Development greater suburban quality of life, business opportunity and Council economic expansion could get more attention and support than they currently do. We are not a lobby group but instead intend to promote leading ideas, world-class thinking, and local issues that relate to the enhancement and vitality of suburban centres and their future prospects. Our Mission The Residential Development Council is a division of To promote a better understanding of the important the Property Council of Australia. It is the leading role of the suburban economy in the life of our cities, representative for the country's largest residential through shared insights, information and analysis. developers, providing powerful advocacy on behalf of the industry that drives Australia's economy. It seeks to promote an evidence based approach to Our Vision understanding the role of the residential development Progressive cities where quality social and economic sector in the economic life of Australia, and in infrastructure is equitably distributed across both providing Australians with homes in which to live. suburban and inner urban locations. Our Goal Equitable quality of life for suburban residents by facilitating greater employment, leisure and retail choices closer to where people live. Corporate Members Supporting the research efforts and public engagement activities of The Suburban Alliance: 3
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Table of contents Key findings 5 Introduction 6 Regional and local context 7 Amenity & infrastructure 9 Population profile 11 Demographic profile 12 Worker profile 14 Property market indicators 15 Energy use & sustainability 16 4
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Key findings On behalf of the Suburban Alliance, Macroplan have undertaken an evidenced-based assessment of new suburban communities. Below are the key findings for the master-planned communities of North Lakes and Greater Springfield, in comparison to Brisbane Inner suburbs. LOCAL AMENTIY & INFRASTRUCTURE • Significant variance in the amount of • Every day needs are well open space enjoyed by residents accommodated for – transport, • Commute time to Brisbane CBD just education, medical, retail, sporting 45 mins and entertainment facilities. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS • Strong historic population growth as • Larger average household size with the suburbs have developed and a higher proportion of traditional continue to develop families • Lower population density covering a • Higher percentage of couples with larger geographic area just one person employed full-time • Younger average age, with a higher • Comparable household incomes % of children • Higher average household spend on • Higher dependency on cars for groceries, household goods and getting to work and driving kids to general retail school and sport EMPLOYMENT 10% • Only ~10% of residents commute to • Retail sector top employer Brisbane Inner for work • Higher percentage of the workforce • The majority (65-70%) work either are female locally or within the surrounding area • Higher percentage of the workforce are under 30 yrs of age RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY 50% • Affordable housing with house prices • Lower vacancy rates up to 50% cheaper and comparable • Higher rental yields to Bris Inner unit prices ENERGY USE • Similar to Brisbane Inner, however • Households in Springfield 4.4 times Springfield residents consume and North Lakes 2.4 times more around 10% more on ave. per month likely to use solar energy 5
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Introduction In some urban planning circles, suburbs are viewed as inferior to inner urban areas for a host of reasons: from economic, to environmental, to traffic/congestion, and cultural and social. New suburban development has been pejoratively labelled “sprawl” and is widely regarded as a less desirable form of urban growth. The Suburban Alliance believes an evidence-based assessment of new suburban communities will reveal that many of these anti-suburban prejudices are not justified. We have chosen North Lakes and Springfield in the Brisbane region as two case studies of new suburban development because they were both “masterplanned” suburban communities which started from nothing, and both have had more than 20 years to develop and mature. The Suburban Alliance engaged Macroplan to prepare an evidence based assessment of new suburban communities in order to facilitate and inform discussion around urban and regional development, with North Lakes and Greater Springfield chosen as case studies. The report includes the following for each case study community: • A review of the regional and local context of the areas, including a brief history of the community and masterplan background; • A review of the demographic profiles, based on the latest Census data; • An overview of the residential property market profiles; • A review of the employment profiles of each community; • A review of commuting patterns for each community; • A review of environmental and open space attributes for each community; and • An overview of local services and amenity of each community. “Suburbia is not a condition that needs to be cured. It is not an ailment. Indeed, in many respects, new suburban developments offer enhanced quality of life, environmental and economic outcomes to their residents. A more balanced appreciation of the characteristics of new suburban developments is what we hope to achieve via research projects such as this.” The Suburban Alliance. February 2020. 6
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Regional and local context NORTH LAKES • North Lakes is located within the Moreton Bay • Local amenity is set to improve with a new Regional Council area, approximately 27km north lifestyle and commercial precinct, Laguna North of Brisbane and 10km inland of Redcliffe. Lakes, with construction due to commence mid- 2020. • Residential development of the master-planned community began in the late 1990’s with new • The $250 million precinct will include a further residents calling the suburb home at the start of 5,000 sq.m of retail, 10,500 sq.m of commercial 2000. space, 140-room hotel, 2,000 sq.m gym, lagoon- style swimming pool and learn to swim pool plus • Originally part of Mango Hill, North Lakes was 3,000 sq.m poolside restort-style hospitality gazetted as a separate suburb in 2006. venue. Continued residential development would see the resident population grow strongly by an average • Residents also benefit from access to Moreton 13% per annum for the 10 years following. Bay’s first university campus newly completed in early 2020 in the nearby suburb of Petrie, of • North Lakes, home to an estimated 36,650 which is readily accessible by train. The new residents in 2019, was developed as a place University of Sunshine Coast campus had its first where people could live, work and play with intake of students in Semester 1 2020, with the around 30 percent of the suburb dedicated to campus forming part of the first stage of the 10.5 open space, including waterways, parklands and hectare, ‘The Mill’, educational and cultural recreational facilities. precinct. • Now a well-established community, residents • For the purposes of this assessment, the North have access to a variety of schools, health Lakes – Mango Hill SA2 has been used, which precinct and hospital as well as multiple retail also includes the suburb of Mango Hill, another facilities including Westfield North Lakes, sub- masterplanned community, which was largely regional shopping centre, an Ikea and established when development in North Lakes Queensland’s only Costco outlet. began. North Lakes Source: stockland.com.au 7
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Regional and local context GREATER SPRINGFIELD • Greater Springfield (Springfield) is located within the Ipswich City Council area, approximately 30km southwest of Brisbane and 20km southeast of Ipswich CBD. • Encompassing 2,860 hectares Springfield is Australia’s largest and first privately developed satellite city, situated in one of SEQ’s fastest growing corridors and includes the suburbs of Springfield, Springfield Central, Springfield Lakes, Augustine Heights, Spring Mountain and Springfield Central Brookwater. Source: greaterspringfield.com.au • The master-planned community is centralised • In addition to a growing town centre, residents around the town centre of Springfield Central, also have access to a significant amount of which currently accommodates a sub-regional parklands and recreational facilities, with 30 shopping centre, Orion Springfield, Orion percent of Springfield to be dedicated to outdoor swimming lagoon as well as commercial, space. This currently includes the 24ha Robelle educational and health precincts, including a Domain parklands, White Rock - Spring Mountain Mater Private Hospital and University of Southern Conservation Estate, Springfield Central Sports Queensland campus. Complex (opened 2019) and Brookwater Golf Club as well as a number of parks and children’s • Once fully developed, Springfield Central’s playgrounds. 390-ha CBD will accommodate 2.6 million square metres of mixed use space, including • Some key developments proposed for Springfield commercial, retail and educational uses, along include a 1,200-bed Mater Public hospital, and a with 22,850 residential units. Brisbane Lion’s AFL stadium (due for completion 2021). • Since residential development first began in the late 1990s, Springfield’s population has grown • As the city continues to develop, sustainability will significantly with the resident population continue to be paramount, with the city aiming to increasing by an average of 10.1% per annum achieve zero net energy by 2038 as well as over the 10 years to 2016. integrating sustainable design into buildings and the landscape. • With an estimated resident population of approximately 36,000 in 2019, Springfield’s population is forecast to increase to nearly So how do these two 120,000 by 2036. • Residents have access to a variety of schools master-planned regions offering both primary and secondary, public and really compare to the likes private education as well as a TAFE and a number of child care centres. of Brisbane’s Inner • Springfield is supported by bus services as well suburbs? as two train stations located at Springfield Central and Springfield. The region is also easily accessible via the Centenary Highway as well as Why are more and more the Logan and Ipswich motorways, providing people choosing to live in connections to Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold Coast. the New Suburbia? 8
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing amenity & infrastructure Open space Public space - % of total geographic area 30% 9% 42% North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner • Residents in North Lakes and Springfield enjoy a Private space Public space 0.41 much higher percentage, 30% and 42% respectively, of the suburb dedicated to open 800 0.22 space, compared to just 9% in Brisbane Inner 535 445 • On per capita basis, North Lakes and 0.02 Springfield enjoy 10 to 20 times more public open space to that of Brisbane Inner residents Ave. lot sizes (sq.m) Sq.km / 1000 residents • Residents also enjoy a greater amount of North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner private space, with larger average lot sizes. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Brisbane City, Ipswich and Moreton Bay Regional councils, macroplan Parks, recreation areas & sporting facilities Public space in masterplanned communities tends to be provided for by developers. In the inner city, it is provided by tax payers via state of local government instruments. North Lakes: Springfield: Brisbane Inner: • Town Park Lake Eden • Robelle Domain • South Bank Parklands, • North Lakes Golf Course • Orion Lagoon and parklands • Botanic Gardens (CBD), • Halpine Lake Reserve • Springfield Sports Complex, • Roma Street Parklands, • Melaleuca Lakes and Parklands • White Rock - Spring Mountain • New Farm Park, • North Lakes Environmental Park Conservation Estate, • Kangaroo Point Cliffs • North Lakes Aquatic Centre • Brookwater Golf Club, North Lakes Environmental Park Orion Lagoon Brisbane Botanic Gardens Source: weekendnotes.com.au Source: greaterspringfield.com.au Source: brisbane.qld.gov.au 9
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing amenity & infrastructure Social Infrastructure North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner Hospitals 1 1 9 Medical centres 8 3 49 Child Care 16 8 35 Primary School 12 9 11 Secondary School 9 6 14 Universities 0 1 6 Tafe 0 1 3 Public transport Major Developments North Lakes Brisbane Inner • Laguna project (p) - $250m North Lakes Lifestyle and Springfield 40-45 minute commute to CBD Commercial precinct to include: 5,000 sq.m of retail, North 45 minute commute to CBD 10,500 sq.m commercial space, Lakes 140-room hotel, 2,000 sq.m gym, lagoon-style swimming pool and learn to swim pool plus Sporting clubs & facilities 3,000 sq.m poolside restort-style hospitality venue. Due to commence mid-2020, North Lakes Springfield with completion by 2022. AFL Y Y AUS Kick Y Y Basketball Y Y Springfield Bowls N N • 75% of Greater Springfield yet to Cricket Y Y be developed, with planning Cycling Y Y approval for a further ~2.685 Golf Y Y million sq.m of mixed use Indoor sports centre Y Y Little Athletics N Y development (worth ~$70bn). Martial arts (Boxing, Karate, etc.) Y Y • Mater Hospital, 1,200 beds (p) Netball Y Y • 18 ha education precinct Park run Y Y • Brisbane Lions stadium & Performing Arts / Dance Y Y training facility (p) Public pool / Aquatic centre Y Y Rowing / sailing / canoing N Y Brisbane Inner Rugby Y Y Rugby League Y Y • Queens Wharf (UC) Soccer Y Y • Cross River Rail (UC) Tennis Y Y • Brisbane Live (p) Touch Y Y • Brisbane Metro (p) Walk/Bikeways Y Y UC – under construction Source: flaticon.com.au, macroplan p - proposed 10
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing population profile Historic and projected population Average annual growth 140 13.0% Thousands 120 10.1% 100 80 6.1% 60 40 3.0% 3.2% 2.4% 20 - 2006 2016 2036 (f) 2006-2016 2016-2036 North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner • Historically, North Lakes recorded the strongest Population density (persons / sq.km) growth @ 13% AAGR • Springfield is set to continue strong growth and North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner by 2036 accommodate a resident population similar to Brisbane Inner, but at nearly two and 2016 half times less in density. 2036 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan Source: communities.lendlease.com 11
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing demographic profile Household type & size North Springfield Brisbane Lakes Inner • Traditional families (couples with dep't child.) the more predominant type in suburban areas, with 60% 62% 27% an average household size of 3 compared to 2 in Brisbane Inner 18% 16% 37% • Households without children make up 60% of families in Brisbane Inner 5% 4% 23% • With a higher proportion of young families, the Ave. household 3 3.1 2 average age of North Lakes and Springfield size residents is considerably lower than Brisbane Inner 100% 37 40 32 29 Average age 63% 50% • Higher average age for Brisbane Inner reflective 50% 46% 20 34% 35% of higher proportion (~50%) aged between 20 and 24% 20% 40yrs and ~24% aged 50 and over. 15% 13% • Over a third of residents in North Lakes and 0% 0 North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner Springfield are infant and school aged children (0- 0-19 20-50 50+ Ave Age 19yrs) compared to ~13% in Brisbane Inner Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan Ethnic origin Average incomes, employment & education level 5% Bris Inner 55% 19% $116,295 4% Household $124,508 $116,876 Springfield 66% 5% 9% 10% $38,945 Per capita $39,796 North Lakes 65% 9% 9% 7% $57,219 Australian UK NZ Asia Other • Higher proportion of Australian-born residents in 45% 44% Springfield and North Lakes 36% • Of those born overseas currently living in North 23% 26% 27% Lakes the majority are from either the UK or New Zealand, compared to a higher proportion of Asian-born residents in Brisbane Inner Both employed FT One employed FT • Lower per capita incomes relative to Brisbane Inner, however household incomes on par or higher which, as further indicated by the 42% 32% 32% employment status of ‘couple families’, reflects a 21% 21% 21% 19% 19% greater opportunity for one partner to either stay- 16% at-home or be employed part-time • Only 21% have a Bachelor degree or higher Bachelor degree or Diploma / Cert Year 12 higher compared to 42% of Brisbane Inner residents North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner • North Lakes and Springfield residents are more likely to have a Diploma or Certification (~32%) Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan 12
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing demographic profile Retail Spend • Similar to average incomes, per capita retail Household spend compared to Brisbane Inner spend is lower in North Lakes and Greater Springfield, compared to Brisbane Inner, however Food Catering average household retail spend is between 16 Retail Services and 20 percent higher. General Retail Household Goods Household Other Food & Groceries Fresh Food Per capita -25% 0% 25% 50% North Lakes Springfield North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner • Higher household expenditure and the type of • Household spending is considerably higher on retail categories on which it is spent is reflective fresh food and groceries (30-45%), household of higher average household size and proportion goods (20-30%) and general retail (40-50%), of traditional families. whilst lower on food catering (-20%) and retail services (up to -20%). Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan Modes of transport Car ownership How residents get to work 100% 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.2 Walk/Bicycle 28% 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 Private car 50% 1.2 38% 1.0 0.8 0.6 Public transport 0.4 20% 0.2 0% - 0% 50% 100% North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner % 0 Cars % 1 Car % 2 + Cars Ave. no. of people per car • There is a higher proportion of multiple car • High car ownership is reflected in a higher ownership in North Lakes and Springfield, with proportion of North Lakes and Springfield over 50% owning 2 or more cars, compared to a residents using a car as their primary mode of thirdd of Brisbane Inner households. This is transport to and from work (~75%) reflective of traditional families where a car is • Brisbane Inner residents have a stronger needed for multiple purposes (school drop off, preference for walking/cycling to work and a kids sport, etc.) relatively higher profile for public transport • High car ownership is also reflected in a higher proportion of NL and GS residents using a car as their primary mode of transport to and from work Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan 13
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing worker profile Where residents work 56% 48% 48% Reside: Work: Study area Brisbane Inner Local area Surrounding area 34% North Lakes SA3 Within study Brisbane north side area and Moreton Bay 22% 17% Springfield SA3 Within study Brisbane south side, 16% 11% 12% 10% area Ipswich and Logan 9% 7% 5% 6% Bris Inner n/a - refer local Within study Rest of Brisbane area area LGA Brisbane Local area Surrounding Elsehwere in Elsehwere in Inner area Greater Qld & Brisbane interstate North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner • Percentage of residents that live and work in their • North Lakes and Springfield residents local and surrounding area: are just as likely to work elsewhere in Greater Brisbane or somewhere else in • North Lakes = 70% Queensland as they would Brisbane • Springfield = 65% Inner. • Brisbane Inner = 90% • The proportion of residents that work • For both North Lakes and Springfield, only within their local area has increased by around a tenth of residents commute to 4-5% for both North Lakes and Brisbane Inner for work. Springfield between 2011 and 2016. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, macroplan Local workforce profile North Lakes Brisbane & Springfield Inner 100% 75% ~50% 50% ~50% aged Female 25% Over 30% ~60% 30-50yrs 0% aged 40% less ~$93,000 Prof. tech & Retail trade • The workforce in both North Lakes and #1 employer services ~20% Springfield have a higher proportion (over 30%) ~20-25% of workers who live locally (ie within the same catchment as their workplace), compared to 75.0% Brisbane Inner (11%). • Between 2011 and 2016, the size of North Lakes’ 50.0% and Springfield’s workforces doubled, compared Brisbane Inner’s increasing by only 7 percent. 25.0% • Even with a doubling in workforce size, North 0.0% Lakes and Springfield’s rate of self-sufficiency Unemployed Full time Part Time Male Female (i.e. employing those who live locally) remained North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner relatively unchanged at ~30% and ~48% respectively Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan, 14
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing property market indicators Housing affordability Dwelling typology & ownership Unoccupied ≈ Unit $485,000 - $390,000- House $525,000 $530,000 North Lakes & Brisbane Springfield Inner Rent HOUSE UNIT Mortgaged • The median sale price for a unit in Brisbane Inner Owned is comparative to a house in North Lakes and Springfield 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% • Median house prices in North Lakes and North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner Springfield are up to 50% cheaper than Brisbane Inner. • Detached houses are the predominant dwelling • While the proportion of dwellings rented is type for both North Lakes (77%) and Springfield typically high in Brisbane Inner, North Lakes and (86%), compared to higher density dwellings Springfield have around 45% of dwellings that are (71%) in Brisbane Inner. rented, with a lower unoccupied rate’ indicating healthy tenant demand. • Average lot sizes larger than Brisbane Inner ‘As at 2016 census night Source: CoreLogic RP Data, Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan Yields and Vacancy rates Indicative yields North Lakes Springfield Bris Inner Vacancy rates 7.5% 5.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% 4.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Houses Units • Vacancy rates have averaged ~3% for both North • With strong tenant demand, indicative yields are Lakes and Springfield (2014-2019) compared to also stronger for both houses and unit compared ~5.5% for Brisbane Inner to Brisbane Inner Source: CoreLogic RP Data, SQM research, macroplan 15
A NEW SUBURBIA CASE STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL SUBURBAN EXPANSION Comparing energy use & sustainability Residential energy & solar Per capita energy use Households using solar 172 Springfield (4300) 157 5,522 152 North Lakes (4509) Bris Inner 3,070 1,264 North Lakes Springfield (4300) Bris Inner 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (4509) Usage ratio to Brisbane Inner • Energy usage on a per capita basis is relatively similar compared to Brisbane Inner. Springfield residents consume around 10% more electricity 4.4 X Solar usage Springfield on average per month. 2.2 X Pools • We assume Springfield households likely consume more energy due to a higher number of North 2.4 X Solar usage pools. Lakes • Growth in solar usage has outstripped that of 1.6 X Pools Brisbane Inner, with households in Springfield 4.4 times and North Lakes 2.4 times more likely to Energy usage and pool counts are based upon Energex data by postcodes 4509, 4300 and an aggregate of postcodes 4000, 4101 use solar energy. and 4005 for Brisbane Inner. Source: Energex, Australian Bureau of Statistics, flaticon.com, macroplan Sustainability North Lakes: Springfield: • Sustainable building practices: • Sustainable building practices – 5-green-star The Corso – first commercial building in rated: Australia to be awarded a 5-green-star Springfield Tower, rating GE Building North Lakes Business Park designed • Dedicated integration of uses with the natural around sustainability design guidelines environment and provision of open space North Lakes Sports Club powered by 1,000 • Zero net energy target by 2038: solar panels renewable energy generation; storage infrastructure district energy schemes green mobility solutions energy efficiency initiatives water saving sustainable living practices 16
SYDNEY MELBOURNE BRISBANE GOLD COAST PERTH Level 10 Level 16 Level 1 Level 2 Level 1 580 George Street 330 Collins Street 310 Edward Street 89 - 91 Surf Parade 89 St Georges Terrace Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Brisbane QLD 4000 Broadbeach QLD 4218 Perth WA 6000 (02) 9221 5211 (03) 9600 0500 (07) 3221 8166 (07) 3221 8166 (08) 9225 7200 www.macroplan.com.au
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