A Daisyworld Ecological Parable Including the Revenge of Gaia and Greenhouse Effect
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fractal and fractional Article A Daisyworld Ecological Parable Including the Revenge of Gaia and Greenhouse Effect Marcelo A. Savi * and Flavio M. Viola Center for Nonlinear Mechanics, COPPE—Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, P.O. Box 68503, Rio de Janeiro 21941-901, Brazil * Correspondence: savi@mecanica.coppe.ufrj.br Abstract: The Daisyworld model illustrates the concept of biological homeostasis in the global environment by establishing a connection between the biota and environment, resulting in a single intertwined system known as Gaia. In essence, the Daisyworld model represents life by daisy populations whereas temperature represents the environment, establishing a population dynamics model to represent life–environment ecological interactions. The recent occurrence of extreme weather events due to climate change and the critical crises brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic are strengthening the arguments for the revenge of Gaia, a term used to describe the protective response of the global biota-environment system. This paper presents a novel Daisyworld parable to describe ecological life–environment interactions including the revenge of Gaia and the greenhouse effect. The revenge of Gaia refers to a change in the interplay between life and environment, characterized by the Gaia state that establishes the life-environment state of balance and harmony. This results in reaction effects that impact the planet’s fertile regions. On the other hand, the greenhouse effect is incorporated through the description of the interactions of greenhouse gases with the planet, altering its albedo. Numerical simulations are performed using a nonlinear dynamics perspective, showing different ecological scenarios. An investigation of the system reversibility is carried out together with critical life–environment interactions. This parable provides a qualitative description that can be useful to evaluate ecological scenarios. Keywords: ecology; Daisyworld; revenge of Gaia; greenhouse effect; nonlinear dynamics; Citation: Savi, M.A.; Viola, F.M. A life–environment system Daisyworld Ecological Parable Including the Revenge of Gaia and Greenhouse Effect. Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/ 1. Introduction fractalfract7020190 Daisyworld is a model originally proposed by James Lovelock [1,2] that represents Academic Editors: Haci the biological homeostasis of the global environment, describing the self-regulation of Mehmet Baskonus and Golan Bel the planetary system. Daisyworld established the biota–environment coupling, which Received: 23 January 2023 means that life and environment is a single coupled system: Gaia. Watson and Lovelock [3] Revised: 2 February 2023 developed a mathematical model presented as a parable considering an imaginary planet Accepted: 13 February 2023 because the Earth case is too complex to be modeled. Published: 14 February 2023 The basic idea is that the environment is characterized by temperature and life is represented by daisy populations. Biodiversity is symbolized by the colors of daisies, each of which has its own albedo, the ability to reflect light and heat from the sun into the atmosphere. The simplest version of the Daisyworld model employs black and white Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. daisies only. The Daisyworld defines the symbiotic interactions of daisy populations with Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. the ambient in order to preserve temperature in the optimal conditions for life. This article is an open access article Since its inception, the Daisyworld model has garnered significant attention from vari- distributed under the terms and ous perspectives and has become an iconic representation of the Gaia theory. It symbolizes conditions of the Creative Commons the fundamental principles of ecology theory. One of the most important characteristics of Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// the Daisyworld is the capability to describe either global or local phenomena [4]. Wood creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract7020190 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/fractalfract
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 2 of 14 et al. [5] presented a general overview regarding the literature associated with the Daisy- world, emphasizing the model characteristics, different approaches for the analysis, spatial aspects and variant models. A debate that has arisen over the years concerns the adaptability of the system and how it shapes the evolution of life through natural selection. Stocker [6] discussed mutations in the Daisyworld considering grey daisies that appear between white and black daises. Saunders [7] discussed evolution without natural selection in the Daisyworld. Afterward, Darwinian aspects were investigated by Robertson and Robinson [8], allowing for the description of adaptive evolution where the daisy populations can change their optimal temperature. Lenton and Lovelock [9] included constraints on adaptation showing that Daisyworld operates in a Darwinian manner, where different types of life compete with one another, and exhibit heritable variations in traits, which is a form of natural selection. Sugimoto [10] presented mathematical analytical arguments showing that Gaia hy- pothesis and Darwinian evolution can coexist. Staley [11] proposed an alternative approach to the Daisyworld model that is based on conventional Darwinian principles, in which en- vironmental regulation is a result of population dynamics rather than Darwinian selection, which favors the organisms with the highest survival capabilities. The conclusions point out that, as the environment is influenced by life, there is a co-evolution until the optimal conditions for life coincide with the equilibrium conditions. Doolittle [12] presented a Darwinized Daisyworld model which discussed the apparent contradictions and proposed a Gaia theory in a neo-Darwinian framework. Pujol [13] discussed the thermodynamical aspects of the Daisyworld model employing the maximum entropy principle. Results enlarge the range of climate stability. Ackland [14] employs the principle of maximum energy production showing that Daisyworld follows evolutionary dynamics. Nevison et al. [15] incorporated the energy equation to assess the temperature of the planet, leading to the discovery of self-sustaining temperature oscillations in Daisyworld. Cohen and Rich [16] explored the interactions among the daisy populations and how they contribute to maintaining an appropriate temperature range. Boyle et al. [17] discussed the symbiotic physiology of the Daisyworld establishing qualitative comparisons with the system without symbiosis. Weaver and Dyke [18] discussed timescale perspective using an analytical approach. Climate changes can also be described by considering greenhouse gases. Viola et al. [19] incorporated greenhouse gases in Daisyworld, considering prescribed time series that alter system albedo. Climate variability was also of concern considering har- monic variation of the solar luminosity. Complex dynamical responses were observed presenting chaotic behavior. Paiva et al. [20] discussed climate changes from the perspective of thermal balance. A crucial aspect to consider in evaluating the ecological behavior of Daisyworld is the impact of human activities, which are often characterized by destruction, pollution, and other damaging actions. It is important to determine whether these actions are so severe as to be considered symbiotic. In this regard, Lovelock introduced the revenge of Gaia theory which explained that Earth is fighting back against human activities [21,22]. Climate change is probably the most emblematic effect related to this reaction, but human society is still acting with an attitude of denialism. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic brought another point to be imagined as a possible consequence of the revenge of Gaia. Cazzolla-Gatti [23] clearly pointed out that “coronavirus outbreak is a symptom of Gaia’s sickness”. The literature points to various issues related to the revenge of Gaia. Jones [24] em- phasized a scenario of rapid global warming leading to human extinction within 500 years, which he referred to as “Gaia bites back.” Aside from the ecological issues, it seems that human behavior has also evolved in the last few centuries. Torres [25] presented a survey of arguments related to that which attempted to answer the question: “Who would de- stroy the world?”. Morgan [26] evaluated two scenarios of the world on fire: nuclear and climate change.
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 3 of 14 Wilkinson [27] pointed that Daisyworld can be employed to describe catastrophic scenarios. Ackland et al. [28] discussed catastrophic desert formation, considering spa- tiotemporal aspects of the model. Chaotic behavior associated with the Daisyworld is another source of unpredictability. Although this is a controversial point, Viola et al. [19] showed chaos in the Daisyworld induced by climate variability. The literature on ecological modeling is vast and includes different perspectives. Phe- nomenological models are useful due to their simplicity. In this regard, besides Daisyworld models, there are distinct initiatives to describe biosphere processes where carbon-cycles are of special interest [29–31]. Equilibrium and stability are some aspects that can be analyzed employing, for example, the Le Chatelier principle [32,33]. Time series analysis is another important subject with considerable impact because it seems to be more convincing for a non-technical audience. In this regard, different perspec- tives are employed analyzing temperature, sea levels, greenhouse gases, deforestation and pollution, among others. Recently, sophisticated nonlinear tools and artificial intelligence have been employed to analyze distinct aspects of climate change [34–38]. This paper deals with a novel Daisyworld parable to incorporate the revenge of Gaia and greenhouse effects. The novel mathematical model is proposed considering the classical variables—black daisies, white daisies and temperature—that incorporate extra variables to represent the planet fertile area, the Gaia-state condition associated with life–environment harmony that defines the Gaia reaction level, and greenhouse gases and their interactions with the planet. On this basis, Gaia state introduces constraints for the daisy populations establishing new scenarios for the planet’s self-regulation. Numerical simulations are carried out that show the model capabilities using a nonlinear dynamics perspective which provides an understanding of system behavior. The reduction of life has an impact on the biota–environment balance, which shows the effect of the revenge of Gaia. 2. Daisyworld Model: Gaia Revenge and Greenhouse Effect Gaia is represented by the Daisyworld model, a self-regulated planet that is composed of the interactions between the environment and life. The classical Daisyworld model considers that life is represented by colored daisy populations and the variety of colors represents the biodiversity. For the sake of simplicity, two colors only are enough for a first approach to description: white, W; and black, B. The environment is represented by the temperature, T, and the thermal balance of the Daisyworld is defined by the energy equation that includes radiation energy and greenhouse effect [15,39]. Other effects can be incorporated in the Daisyworld parable by considering that Gaia reacts due to the unbalance of the life–environment interactions. The revenge of Gaia can be associated with either thermal balance or life conditions. In this regard, it is defined a variable G that represents the Gaia state with respect to life–environment harmony. Besides, the area that is proper for life—the planet fertile area—is represented by variable P. The classical Daisyworld assumes that this is a constant parameter, and the novel model assumes that it varies due to the Gaia state. The effect of greenhouse effect is incorporated by considering variable H that represents any greenhouse gas. In general, different gases can be treated, but a single generic gas is assumed. The greenhouse effect evolves based on the emission of greenhouse gases, defined by a time history h(t), being controlled by the carbon cycles from forests and oceans represented by the term ϕ H H. In essence, greenhouse gases alter the albedo, reducing the planet’s self-regulation capacity.
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 4 of 14 On this basis, Daisyworld is described by a population dynamics model that allows a qualitative description of planet self-regulation governed by the following equations: . W = W α g β( TW ) − γ . B = B α g β( TB ) − γ . P = γ P − γG G . . (1) G = γG G Ξ + ε P (1 − P) sign P . . H = h(t) − ϕ H H 1 SL(1 − A) − σT 4 T= c where γ is the daisy mortality rate; γP is a devastation/recovery rate that defines the planet fertile area reduction/increase, depending on the parameter sign; γG establishes the influence of Gaia state on planet fertile area, which means that the increase in variable G reduces thefertile area; and ε P connects the planet devastation with Gaia state; in . . . addition, sign P = P/ P . It should be pointed out that Gaia state, G, affects the daisy populations (W and B) reducing planet fertile area (P). The governing equations are coupled by temperature that has an influence on all populations; the main aspects of these couplings can be understood with the definitions presented in the sequel. The variable αg is the fertile fractional area coverage of the planet, being represented by αg = P − W − B (2) where 0 ≤ P ≤ 1. Note that (1 − P) represents a desert area that is not proper for life. Therefore, the total covered planet area is given by: αtg = 1 − W − B (3) The mean planetary albedo, A, can be estimated from the individual albedo of each daisy population (aW and a B ), the ground albedo (a g ), and the greenhouse gas albedo (a H ), which is weighted by the term associated with the amount of greenhouse gases, κH: A = WaW + Ba B + αtg a g − κHa H (4) The function β defines the optimum environment, being usually assumed to be a symmetric single-peak function. Here, a Gaussian function is assumed as follows: 1 2 β( TW ) = β 0 e− k (TW −Topt ) (5) 1 2 β( TB ) = β 0 e− k (TB −Topt ) (6) where β 0 is a parameter related to environmental characteristics, Topt is the optimal tem- perature for life, usually considered as Topt = 295 K; k is the variance of the curve and usually it is assumed to be k = 35 K which means that temperature life conditions can vary from 277.5 K to 312.5 K. Figure 1 presents the optimum environment function β = β( T ) considering two environmental characteristics represented by β 0 = 1 and 2. The local temperature of each population is given by: 4 = q( A − a ) + T 4 TW W TB4 = q( A − a B) + T 4 (7) Tg4 = q A − a g + T 4 where q is a constant used to calculate local temperature as a function of albedo. The temperature calculation considers L as the solar luminosity and S as the solar constant that
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 14 Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 5 of 14 Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 14 establishes the average solar energy represented by SL; σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant; c is a measure of the average heat capacity or thermal inertia of the planet. Figure 1. Optimum environnent function = ( ). The local temperature of each population is given by: = ( − ) + = ( − ) + (7) = − + whereenvironnent q is a constant used βto=calculate ( T ). . local temperature as a function of albedo. The Figure 1. Figure Optimum 1. Optimum function environnent function = β ( ) temperature calculation considers L as the solar luminosity and S as the solar constant that Finally, establishesΞ the average = Ξof( Geach solartoenergy represented Gaiabystate SL; changes. σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann The localfunction temperature constant; ) is used c is a measure represent ofpopulation the averageis theby: given heat capacity The definition or thermal inertia of the planet. of this function is inspired by phase transformations that presents hysteretic behavior [40]. Finally, function Ξ = =Ξ( ) is used to of)harmonyrepresent the Gaia state changes. The definition On this basis, Gaia state varies from ( − a state + Ξ = 0, to a critical reaction state, of this function is inspired by phase transformations that presents hysteretic behavior [40]. represented by Ξ = 1. Therefore, the following function On this basis, Gaia state varies from a state of harmony is proposed, Ξ = 0, to a critical reaction state, = ( − ) + (7) represented by Ξ = 1. Therefore, the following function is proposed, Ξ = 1 − exp[−µG + Gs ] + Ξ0 (8) = Ξ−= 1 −+exp[− + ]+Ξ (8) Note that, Ξ = 0 until = GS /µ, where µ is the parameter that defines the transforma- where q is Note that, Ξ a constant to=condition 0 until =local / temperature , where μ isasthe parameterofthat defines the tion that starts at GS ; Ξused 0 is the transformation that calculate starts at at ;the Ξ beginning is the of theaat condition function state the beginning albedo. transformation.of the The The state temperature calculation considers L as the solar luminosity and S as the solar 2 ln(constant 10) that transformation is completed transformation. when The Ξ = 1 or, considering transformation is completed Ξ when Ξ =G = 0.99, 1 for, = considering+ GµsΞ. = 0.99, establishes the average ( ) solar energy represented by SL; σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann µ constant; c is a measure The reverse=transformation + . on the Gaia state is represented by the following equation of the average heat capacity or thermal inertia of the planet. The reverse Finally, function transformation Ξ = Ξ( ) isΞused on the Gaia state is represented by the following equation = Ξto represent 0 exp[− µG − Gs ] the Gaia state changes. The definition (9) of this function is inspired by phase transformations Ξ = Ξ expthat [− − ] hysteretic behavior [40].(9) presents On this Now, Ξ = basis, Gaia state G 1Now, until varies = Gfrom /µ, aandstatethe harmony Ξ = 0,istocompleted of transformation when Ξstate, a critical reaction = 0 Ξ = 1 untilS = / , and the transformation is completed when Ξ = 0 or, represented by Ξ = 1. Therefore, or, considering Ξ = 0.01, G = the 2 ln(following 10) ( G)s function is proposed, − . Figure 2 shows the phase transformation R , µ= considering Ξ = f0.01 µ − . Figure 2 shows the phase transformation function where it is observed function Ξ = 1 −aexp[− where it isaobserved hysteretic ]+Ξ +characteristic. characteristic. hysteretic (8) Note that, Ξ = 0 until = / , where μ is the parameter that defines the transformation that starts at ; Ξ is the condition at the beginning of the state transformation. The transformation is completed when Ξ = 1 or, considering Ξ = 0.99, ( ) = + . The reverse transformation on the Gaia state is represented by the following equation Ξ = Ξ exp [− − ] (9) Now, Ξ = 1 until = / , and the transformation is completed when Ξ = 0 or, ( ) considering Ξ = 0.01 , = − . Figure 2 shows the phase transformation Figure 2. Gaia state transformation represented by function Ξ = Ξ( G ). function where it is observed a hysteretic characteristic. 3. Numerical Simulations Numerical simulations are carried out considering the fourth order Runge–Kutta method. Initially, the classical Daisyworld is treated and afterward, the effect of the revenge of Gaia and greenhouse effect are of concern. The classical Daisyworld parameters are presented in Table 1. The other parameters related to the Gaia revenge and greenhouse effect are described in Table 2. Parameters can vary to characterize different scenarios, and such changes are noted when necessary.
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 6 of 14 Table 1. Classical Daisyworld parameters. Description Parameter Value Optimum temperature Topt (K) 295 Temperature range k (K) 308 White daisy albedo aW 0.75 Black daisy albedo aB 0.25 Planetary albedo ag 0.50 Daisy mortality rate γ 0.3 Definition of the local temperature from albedo q K−4 2.06 × 109 Stefan–Boltzmann constant σ K−4 5.67 × 10−8 Solar constant S 915 Thermal inertia of the planet c K−4 950 Table 2. Gaia revenge parameters. Description Parameter Value Devastation rate γP −3 × 10−4 Gaia scenario effect on the fertile area γG 2 × 10−4 Devastation on Gaia scenario εP 5 × 10−3 Phase transformation condition µ 1 Start of the phase transformation GS 0.4 Greenhouse gas absorption ϕH 0.5 Influence of greenhouse gases on albedo κ 0.1 Greenhouse gas albedo aH 0.25 Classical Daisyworld simulations are of concern in order to show planet self-regulation. In this regard, it is assumed that parameters of Table 2 vanish (γP = γG = ε P = µ = ϕ H = h(t) = 0) and thermal inertia is neglected, which means that c = 0. The solar luminosity is assumed to have a linear increase, varying from 0.8 to 1.8 and ambient condition is represented by β 0 = 1. Figure 3 presents the evolution of daisy populations and temperature showing that daisy population interactions define a temperature that tends to be constant close to the optimum temperature, the best condition for life. It is also Fractal Fract. 2023,noticeable 7, x FOR PEER that the increase in the luminosity reaches a critical value that causes planet REVIEW 7 of 14 death, a situation where there is not life anymore. (a) (b) Figure 3. Life–environment Figure 3. Life–environment interactions interactions of the classical of the classical Daisyworld Daisyworld neglecting thermal neglecting thermal inertia: (a) inertia: daisy populations; (b) temperature. (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature. The effect of thermal inertia on the classical Daisyworld is presented in Figure 4. It The effect of thermal shows inertia the evolution on the of daisy classical populations and Daisyworld temperature andis presented in Figuresub- the daisy population 4. It shows the space. evolution of daisy populations and temperature and the daisy Thermal inertia causes oscillations of the daisy populations and temperaturepopulation subspace. Thermal inertia around the steady causes oscillations state solution of the daisy of the previous populations case. Figure 5 showsand temperature the same case show- ing a different ambient condition represented by = 2. around the steady state solution of the previous case. Figure 5 shows the same Similar qualitative results are case predicted, but it should be pointed out that, under these conditions, planet showing a different ambient condition represented by β 0 = 2. Similar qualitative results death is post- poned. From now on, all results are simulated considering an ambient condition repre- sented by = 2.
(a) (b) Figure 3. Life–environment interactions of the classical Daisyworld neglecting thermal inertia: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature. The effect of thermal inertia on the classical Daisyworld is presented in Figure 4. It Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 7 of 14 shows the evolution of daisy populations and temperature and the daisy population sub- space. Thermal inertia causes oscillations of the daisy populations and temperature around the steady state solution of the previous case. Figure 5 shows the same case show- are predicted,ingbut a different it shouldambient condition be pointed outrepresented that, under = 2.conditions, bythese Similar qualitative planet results death are is predicted, but it should be pointed out that, under these conditions, planet death is post- postponed. From now on, all results are simulated considering an ambient condition poned. From now on, all results are simulated considering an ambient condition repre- represented by β 0 =by2. = 2. sented (a) (b) (c) Figure 4. Life–environment interactions of the classical Daisyworld considering thermal inertia: (a) Fractal Fract. 2023,Figure 7, x FOR4. Life–environment PEER REVIEW interactions of the classical Daisyworld considering thermal inertia: 8 of 14 daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. (a) (b) (c) Figure 5. Life–environment interactions of the classical Daisyworld considering thermal inertia and Figure 5. Life–environment interactions of the classical Daisyworld considering thermal inertia and = 2: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. β 0 = 2: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. The effect of greenhouse gases is now of concern assuming a linear gas emission, The effect of greenhouse varying gases 6ispresents from 0 to 3. Figure now oftheconcern evolutionassuming a linear gas of daisy populations emission, and temperature varying from and 0 to shows 3. Figure 6 presents the evolution of daisy populations and temperature the daisy subspace also. Note that greenhouse effect anticipates planet death and shows the daisy the because subspace also. greenhouse Notereduces albedo that greenhouse effect anticipates the daisy populations. Therefore,planet death the greenhouse effect is similar because the greenhouse to thereduces albedo increasethe in black daisydaisy population,Therefore, populations. but they arethe notgreenhouse interacting to induce planet self-regulation. In other words, greenhouse effect influences planet har- mony, being associated with global warming when the gas emission is greater than the capacity of the planet to neutralize it.
(c) Figure 5. Life–environment interactions of the classical Daisyworld considering thermal inertia = 2: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 The effect of greenhouse gases is now of concern assuming a linear gas emiss 8 of 14 varying from 0 to 3. Figure 6 presents the evolution of daisy populations and temperat and shows the daisy subspace also. Note that greenhouse effect anticipates planet de because the greenhouse albedo reduces the daisy populations. Therefore, the greenho effect is similar to the increase in black daisy population, but they are not interacting to effect is similar to the increase in black daisy population, but they are not interactin induce planet self-regulation. In other words, greenhouse effect influences planet harmony, induce planet self-regulation. In other words, greenhouse effect influences planet h being associatedmony, with global being warming associatedwhen the gaswarming with global emissionwhen is greater than the gas the capacity emission is greater than of the planet to neutralize it. capacity of the planet to neutralize it. Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 o (a) (b) (c) Figure 6. Life–environment Figure 6. Life–environment interactions interactions of the of the classical classical Daisyworld Daisyworld considering considering greenhouse greenhouse g gases and = 2: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. and β 0 = 2: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) daisy population subspace. The effect of theThe effectof revenge of Gaia the revenge is now of in Gaia focusisby now in focus byluminosity considering consideringvarying luminosity vary from 0.8 to 1.4, = 2. from 0.8 to 1.4, β 0 = 2. The greenhouse effect is neglected to mainly focus on the focus The greenhouse effect is neglected to mainly Gaia on the G revenge phenomenon. Figure 7 presents the Daisyworld behavior showing the statethe state v revenge phenomenon. Figure 7 presents the Daisyworld behavior showing ables represented variables represented by the of by the evolution evolution of daisy populations, daisy populations, temperature, temperature, planet fertile a planet fertile and Gaia state. Gaia transformation variable Ξ and daisy population subspace are a area and Gaia state. Gaia transformation variable Ξ and daisy population subspace are presented. The Gaia reaction promotes a reduction in the planet fertile area, which redu also presented. The Gaia reaction promotes a reduction in the planet fertile area, which the daisy populations and, due to that, temperature dramatically increases. It is also reduces the daisy populations and, due to that, temperature dramatically increases. It is ticeable that the planet becomes a dead planet at the end of this scenario because = also noticeable that the planet becomes a dead planet at the end of this scenario because Similar behavior is observed when greenhouse gases are considered, anticipating pla P = 0. Similar behavior is observed when greenhouse gases are considered, anticipating death even before the critical point where = 0. planet death even before the critical point where P = 0. The reversibility of the revenge of Gaia is evaluated with a devastation reversion represented by positive values of the parameter γP . This is expressed by considering that γP = −3 × 10−4 for t < 900, becoming γP = +2 × 10−4 for t > 1000, with a linear transition between both values. Figure 8 presents the Daisyworld behavior showing the state variables. Note that there is a time instant that planet fertile area starts to increase again, opening space for the growth of daisy populations and therefore, the temperature stabilization around optimum values. This behavior is associated with the reduction of the Gaia reaction, which means a recovery. Nevertheless, there is a critical point where, after that, the reversibility is not possible anymore. Figure 9 shows a scenario where the devastation reversion starts for t > 1000 (instead of 900 of the previous simulation) showing that the reversion is not (a)possible, and planet death occurs although(b) the fertile area does not vanish yet. This result shows the nonlinear sensitivity of this complex system.
ables represented by the evolution of daisy populations, temperature, planet fertile ar and Gaia state. Gaia transformation variable Ξ and daisy population subspace are al presented. The Gaia reaction promotes a reduction in the planet fertile area, which reduc the daisy populations and, due to that, temperature dramatically increases. It is also n ticeable that the planet becomes a dead planet at the end of this scenario because = Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 9 of 14 Similar behavior is observed when greenhouse gases are considered, anticipating plan death even before the critical point where = 0. (a) (b) Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 1 (c) (d) (e) (f) Figure 7. Life–environment Figure 7. Life–environment interactions interactions in in the Daisyworld the Daisyworld associated associated with the of with the revenge revenge Gaia: of Gaia: ( daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) planet fertile area; (d) Gaia state; (e) Gaia phase transfo (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) planet fertile area; (d) Gaia state; (e) Gaia phase transfor- mation; (f) daisy population subspace. mation; (f) daisy population subspace. The reversibility of the revenge of Gaia is evaluated with a devastation reversion rep Although the previous simulations present a general idea about the reversibility of the resented by positive values of the parameter . This is expressed by considering tha revenge of Gaia, the hysteretic characteristic of the Gaia state transformation introduces a = −3 × 10 for < 900, becoming = +2 × 10 for > 1000, with a linear tran more complex behavior associated with this issue. In this regard, a scenario of destruction sition between both values. Figure 8 presents the Daisyworld behavior showing the stat is evaluated by examining a period of devastation followed by a recovery phase, and then variables. Note that there is a time instant that planet fertile area starts to increase again another episode of destruction (Figure 10). In order to focus exclusively on the reversibility opening space for the growth of daisy populations and therefore, the temperature stabil effect, luminosity is assumed to be constant L = 1 and greenhouse effect is neglected. zation around optimum values. This behavior is associated with the reduction of the Gai Figure 12 presents state variable evolution showing that planet fertile area does not return reaction, which means a recovery. Nevertheless, there is a critical point where, after tha to the originalthe state after the revenge reversibility of Gaia, is not possible even though anymore. Figure 9the recovery shows is similar a scenario wheretothe the devastatio devastation. Therefore, hysteretic characteristics introduce difficulties for the reversion reversion starts for > 1000 (instead of 900 of the previous simulation) showing that th of the revengereversion of Gaia iseffects. At theand not possible, end, the death planet planetoccurs deathalthough is reached due to the fertile thedoes area lastnot vanis destruction phase. yet. This result shows the nonlinear sensitivity of this complex system.
opening space for the growth of daisy populations and therefore, the temperature stab zation around optimum values. This behavior is associated with the reduction of the Ga reaction, which means a recovery. Nevertheless, there is a critical point where, after th the reversibility is not possible anymore. Figure 9 shows a scenario where the devastati reversion starts for > 1000 (instead of 900 of the previous simulation) showing that t Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 10 of 14 reversion is not possible, and planet death occurs although the fertile area does not vani yet. This result shows the nonlinear sensitivity of this complex system. (a) (b) Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of (c) (d) (e) (f) (e) (f) Figure 8. Life–environment Figure 8. Life–environment interactions interactions in the Daisyworldin the Daisyworld showing showing the of the reversibility reversibility the revenge of the reven Figure of 8. (a) Gaia: Life–environment daisy interactions populations; (b) in the Daisyworld temperature; (c) planet showing fertile the(d) area; reversibility Gaia state;of (e)the reveng Gaia pha of Gaia: (a) daisy ofpopulations; Gaia: (a) (b) daisy temperature; populations; (b) (c) planet fertile temperature; (c) area; (d) planet Gaiaarea; fertile state; (d)(e) Gaia Gaia phase state; (e) Gaia phas transformation; (f) daisy population subspace. transformation; transformation; (f) daisy population subspace. (f) daisy population subspace. (a) (b) (a) (b) Figure 9. Cont. (c) (d) (c) (d)
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 11 of 14 (a) (b) (c) (d) Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 14 Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of Although the previous simulations present a general idea about the reversibility of the revenge of Gaia, the hysteretic Although characteristic the previous simulationsof the Gaia astate present transformation general idea about the intro- reversibility duces a more complex the revenge behavior of Gaia, associated withcharacteristic the hysteretic this issue. Inofthis theregard, Gaia state a scenario of transformation intr destruction is evaluated duces a more by complex examining a period behavior of devastation associated with thisfollowed issue. In by thisa regard, recovery a scenario phase, and then destruction is evaluated another episode by examining of destruction (Figure a period 10). Inoforder devastation to focusfollowed exclusively by a recover phase, on the reversibility (e) and then effect, another episode luminosity is assumed of destruction to be constant (f) = (Figure 10).1 In andorder to focus exclusive greenhouse effect on the is neglected. reversibility Figure 11 presents effect, luminosity state variable isevolution assumedshowing to be constant that = 1 fertile planet and greenhou Figure Figure 9. Life–environment 9. Life–environment interactions in the interactions Daisyworld in the Daisyworld showing showing a situation wherea situation where the revers the reversibility area effect does not return bility is neglected. oftothe the original revenge Figure state of Gaia 11 presents is after not the state revenge possible variable even with evolution ofreversion: aGaia, even devastation showing though the that daisyplanet (a)recov- ferti of the revenge of Gaia is not possible even with a devastation (a) reversion: daisy populations; population ery area is similar to(b) the does not devastation. temperature; return to the Therefore, (c) planet original state fertilehysteretic area; (d) Gaiaafter the revenge characteristics of Gaia, introduce situation; (e) Gaia even though difficulties phase transformation; the reco (f) dais (b) temperature;ery(c) is planet similarfertile area; to the (d) Gaia situation; devastation. Therefore, (e) hysteretic Gaia phasecharacteristics transformation; (f) daisydifficulti introduce for the reversionpopulation of the subspace. revenge of Gaia effects. At the end, the planet death is reached due population subspace. for the reversion to the last destruction phase. of the revenge of Gaia effects. At the end, the planet death is reached du to the last destruction phase. Figure 10. Figure Devastation 10. Devastation scenario Figure scenario 10. represented Devastation byrepresented scenario represented by parameter γ P .parameter . by (a) (b) (a) (b) Figure 11. Cont.
Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, 190 12 of 14 (a) (b) Fractal Fract. 2023, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of (c) (d) (e) (f) Figure 11. Irreversibility Figure 12. Irreversibility of life-environment of life-environment interactionsinteractions in the Daisyworld in the Daisyworld due thedue the revenge revenge of of Gai (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) planet fertile area; (d) Gaia situation; (e) Gaia phase tran Gaia: (a) daisy populations; (b) temperature; (c) planet fertile area; (d) Gaia situation; (e) Gaia phase formation; (f) daisy population subspace. transformation; (f) daisy population subspace. 4. Conclusions4. Conclusions This paper presents a novel Daisyworld model to describe the revenge of Gaia an This paper presents a novel Daisyworld model to describe the revenge of Gaia and the the greenhouse effect. Besides black daisies, white daisies and temperature, the mod greenhouse effect. Besides black daisies, white daisies and temperature, the model incor- incorporates the planet's fertile area, the Gaia state condition associated with life–environ porates the planet’s fertile area, the Gaia state condition associated with life–environment ment harmony and the greenhouse effect. Numerical simulations are carried out employ harmony and the greenhouse effect. Numerical simulations are carried out employing the ing the fourth order Runge–Kutta method and a nonlinear dynamics perspective. Resul fourth order Runge–Kutta method and a nonlinear dynamics perspective. Results show show scenarios where the revenge of Gaia reduces life through the reduction in th scenarios where the revenge of Gaia reduces life through the reduction in the planet’s fertile planet's fertile area. The greenhouse effect also reduces the self-regulation capacit area. The greenhouse effect also reduces the self-regulation capacity, changing the planetary changing the planetary albedo. In other words, greenhouse effect influences planet ha albedo. In other words, mony, being greenhouse associated effect withinfluences planet harmony, global warming when the being associated gas emission with than th is greater global warming when the gas emission is greater than the planet’s capacity to neutralize planet's capacity to neutralize it. The reversibility of the Gaia revenge is possible but ther it. The reversibility of thepoint is a turning Gaiawhere, revenge is that, after possible but thereisisnot the reversion a turning possible,point where, showing the nonlinea after that, the reversion sensitivityisofnot thispossible, complex showing the nonlinear system. Planet death cansensitivity occur due to ofGaia this reaction complexeven whe system. Planetthedeath canarea fertile occur stilldue to Gaia exists. reaction Besides, even when hysteretic the fertile characteristics area stilldifficulties introduce exists. for th Besides, hysteretic characteristics introduce difficulties for the reversion of the reversion of the effects of the revenge of Gaia, which make its consequences effects of theeven mor revenge of Gaia, which make its consequences even more dramatic. The authors believe dramatic. The authors believe that this new parable matches exactly Lovelock’s ideas o that this new parable the revengematches exactly of Gaia, Lovelock’s and the ideas of theof critical consequences revenge of Gaia, and the the anthropomorphic action on th critical consequences of the anthropomorphic action on the planet. Furthermore, planet. Furthermore, it shows the greenhouse effect in the planet’s thermal it shows balance, als the greenhousecollaborating effect in the toplanet’s thermal balance, the anticipation also collaborating of the planet's death. to the anticipation of the planet’s death. Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.A.S.; methodology, M.A.S.; software, M.A.S. and F.M.V validation, Author Contributions: M.A.S. and F.M.V.; Conceptualization, formalmethodology, M.A.S.; analysis, M.A.S.; investigation, M.A.S.; software,M.A.S.; M.A.S. resources, and F.M.V.;M.A.S.; wr ing—original validation, M.A.S. draft and F.M.V.; preparation, formal M.A.S. analysis, and F.M.V.; M.A.S.; writing—review investigation, M.A.S.;and editing, M.A.S.; resources, M.A.S.;visualizatio writing—original M.A.S. draftand F.M.V.; supervision, preparation, M.A.S. and M.A.S.; project F.M.V.; administration, writing—review andM.A.S.; funding editing, acquisition, M.A.S.; visual- M.A.S.. A authors ization, M.A.S. and havesupervision, F.M.V.; read and agreed to theproject M.A.S.; published version of theM.A.S.; administration, manuscript. funding acquisition, M.A.S. All authors have read Funding: The and agreed authors to the would likepublished versionthe to acknowledge of support the manuscript. of the Brazilian Research Agenci CNPq, CAPES and FAPERJ. Funding: The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Brazilian Research Agencies CNPq, CAPES andData Availability Statement: The datasets are available from the corresponding author on reaso FAPERJ. able request. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. References 1. Lovelock, J.E. Gaia as seen through the atmosphere. In Biomineralization and Biological Metal Accumulation; Westbroek, P., d Jon E.E., Eds.; D. Reidei Publishing Company: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1983; pp. 15–25.
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