24/05 30/05 Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom
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24/05 — 30/05
01 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05 SUMMARY The Guardian Council’s vetting of candidates for the Iran presidential elections has seen the disqualification of Ali Larijani, the main rival of Ebrahim Raisi. Hence, there is little doubt that the latter with much support from hardliners will be winning the 18 June elections, amid widespread voter apathy and calls for boycott from politicians formerly an accepted part of the ruling establishment. Meanwhile, the economy has been a focal point of the presidential campaigns, but there are no signs of realistic proposals that would help much-needed economic recovery. Moreover, the Vienna talks over the revival of the JCPOA have, according to the Iranian delegation, reached a critical juncture in which further progress hinges upon consultations of the parties involved with their respective capitals in the next few days.
02 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05 03 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05
DOMESTIC POLITICS
On 25 May, Iran’s Interior Ministry by the Rouhani campaigns in the past, Interestingly, the Guardian Council’s
announced the names allowed to may reverse voter apathy, mobilizing more-than-expected disqualifications
run for the 18 June presidential disenchanted Iranians to take to the led also Raisi to protest, publicly asking
elections, which were vetted by the polls to vote in order to vote for him as the Guardian Council to reconsider some
ultra-conservative Guardian Council: a “lesser evil” against Raisi – a routine of the disqualifications – in an apparent
Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, scenario in many Iranian elections in the fear that as things stand now he will be
Abdolnasser Hemmati, Saeed Jalili, past few decades (although this concern seen as a pre-selected candidate and
Mohsen Mehralizadeh, Ebrahim Raisis, may have been exaggerated or a result of therefore cannot claim popular legitimacy
Mohsen Rezaee and Alireza Zakani. As in paranoia, given the fact that Ali Larijani as Iran’s next president – an important
previous elections, the Guardian Council is not very popular among Iranians as prerequisite towards realizing his ambition
also disqualified all 40 women who had he may been seen a guarantor for the to become the next Supreme Leader after
registered to run for the presidency – status-quo rather than a reformer); (c) Khamenei’s demise. However, this and
according to the Constitution of the a result of past élite infighting between other calls – also on Khamenei to order an
Islamic Republic the President must be powerful establishment clans: Besides executive directive to reinstate disqualified
male and of Shia faith. Raisi, who has Ali, the Larijaini brothers include most candidates by the Guardian Council – were
served as Chief Justice for the past two importantly Mohammad-Javad and finally rejected by Khamenei.
years, is a close confidant of Supreme Sadegh. The latter, who serves as chairman
Leader Khamenei, who is also traded as of the Expediency Discernment Council – a Moreover, also former President Mahmoud
his potential successor. body that was originally set up to resolve Ahmadinejad has been disqualified as in
differences between the Parliament and the past round. Since his second term
the Guardian Council – openly blasted the as president, he had fallen out with his
decision of the Guardian Council, of which erstwhile backer Khamenei, and ever since
he himself is a member, to disqualify pursues his own brand of political ideology
his brother Ali. This is indicative of the where nationalism overshadows Islamism
schism that has emerged among Iran’s and is engaged in a campaign of rebranding
establishment as the Guardian Council himself, away from a radical ideologue
decisions has led to a shrinking of the to even a non-ideological “liberal
élite’s inner circle; and (d) his daughter democrat” as he has portrayed himself
living in the U.S., which has been quite in an interview with a leading Iranian
recently introduced as a hurdle for Iranian intellectual magazine. Ahmadinejad is
Raisi is also referred to as “blood judge” presidential candidates from running. still very much detested by Iran’s middle
because of him being part of Ayatollah However, Ali Larijani’s disqualification is class who had taken to the streets after the
Khomeini’s infamous four-man death also quite surprising given (a) his record as 2009 presidential race that was believed
committee that was implicated in the long-standing senior figures of the Islamic to have been rigged to his favour, in what
mass executions against thousands of Republic, serving inter alia as Speaker of became known as the Green Movement.
political prisoners in the summer of Parliament and diplomat (including chief However, among Iran’s lower classes
1988. Against this background, it is nuclear negotiator) and (b) the good ties he is still quite popular as his monthly
feared that a Raisi presidency may be he seemed to enjoy with Supreme Leader cash payments to Iranian houseless
turning into a nightmare for Iranian Khamenei, for it was him and, for instance, during his presidency had ameliorated
civil society, which has also not fared not President Rouhani who prepared the their economic situation. In case of the
well under the “moderate” Rouhani controversial 25-year accord with China. Guardian Council again disqualifying
administration despite claims to the Yet, it seems that for Tehran’s hardliners, him from running, Ahmadinejad had
contrary. Raisi is on the sanctions list his mixed political character between a already pledged that he will not grant
of both the U.S. and the EU. hardliner and a reformist, whose views his support to any other candidate. Now,
on domestic and foreign affairs are close to after being disqualified, he has joined
As a result, Raisi remains by far the top Rouhani’s, was too much of a risk to take the call for boycotting the elections. In
contender for the presidency, since in the bid to help elect their favorite Raisi. a nutshell, albeit presidential elections
his main rival Ali Larijani has been in the Islamic Republic have always been
disqualified. Larjani’s disqualification Another key candidate is disqualified is heavily engineered “from above”, this
may be a combination of (a) the hardline Mostafa Tajzadeh, the reformist camp’s time around a kind of Syrianization can
élite’s sense of hubris given the historical most prominent candidate, who in his be witnessed as everyone is expecting a
weakness of the their domestic rivals, campaign was calling for the IRGC to clear Raisi victory amid the lack of any “Raisi is also referred to as “blood judge” because of
i.e. the reformist or moderate camp; (b) “return to the barracks”, i.e. to limit its competition as most other qualified
a fear that Larijani’s very recent media role to defense rather than being heavily contenders are likely to throw their weight
him being part of Ayatollah Khomeini’s infamous
and social-media offensive (including on involved in commercial matters, and for behind his candidacy and instead only seek four-man death committee that was implicated in
the audio platform Clubhouse), in which limiting the also totalitarian powers of positions in a future Raisi administration. the mass executions against thousands of political
he mimicked some of the promises made the Supreme Leader. prisoners in the summer of 1988.”
04 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05
“It is an indisputable fact
that Iran’s economy has
significantly suffered
from Trump’s “maximum
pressure” sanctions.”
ECONOMY
The head of the Central Bank of Iran prominent economist and professor at
Abdolnaser Hemmati, who has been Tehran’s Allameh Tabataba'i University,
qualified to run by the Guardian Council, described what candidates propagate
in a television interview promised to as a roadmap for rescuing the economy
create one million new jobs in his is precisely what led the economy to
first year in office, even as he oversaw collapse in the first place. Eight years
one of the steepest declines in Iran’s ago, President Rouhani promised to
economy. On his part, Mohsen Rezaee, a bring prosperity to Iranians, instead
former IRGC commander and a regular It is an indisputable fact that Iran’s a six-fold rise of the dollar against
presidential contender, promised a five- economy has significantly suffered the national currency as well as high
fold increase in monthly cash subsidies, from Trump’s “maximum pressure” inflation rates were witnessed. The most
a scheme that would almost certainly s a n c t i o n s , wh i c h e x a c e r b a t e d central problem regtarding economic
exacerbate inflation. He also said that widespread dissatisfaction among recovery remains the misguided belief
Iran’s currency, one of the world's Iranians toward their leadership. by the Islamic Republic’s officials that
cheapest currencies, will be the most Against this backdrop, all presidential their political ambitions (domestically
powerful in the Middle East after the US candidates have raised economic issues and in foreign affairs) can be separated
dollar and Euro under his presidency! during their campaign. However, the from the economy, or in other words
Seid Jalili has said: “We must counteract proffered suggestions seem impractical that the latter can be shielded against
the economic leverages of our enemies as they sideline the crucial role the the former.
by economic resistance”. Raisi also Islamic Republic’s foreign policy and
has focused on the economy and had a its enmity with the West, particularly
meeting with private sector economic the U.S., has played in sustaining and
actors. He promised to improve Iran’s deepening the country’s economic
economy by investing in private sectors. woes. Last week, Farshad Momeni, a
06 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05
INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS
After weeks of negotiations in Vienna i.e. Tehran reversing its reduction of suggested that Araqchi may be an agent
on the revival of the JCPOA, it seems a nuclear commitments under the deal of one political faction. i.e. that of the
critical juncture has been reached, at and Washington removing the sanctions reformists and “moderates.”
least for the Iranian side. Deputy Foreign Trump had re-imposed. Both sides, at
Minister Abbas Araqchi has said progress least publicly, have urged the other Since the start of the Vienna talks,
has been made so far but now major side to take the first step. Meanwhile, President Rouhani has frequently said
issues of dispute have been identified. it is normal for delegations to seek that the revival of the JCPOA, including
He raised doubts that the current consultations with their government’s the lifting of sanctions, was within
round of talks will see a breakthrough, during these kind of Iran nuclear reach. Last week, he then claimed that
while stating it may be necessary negotiations. This is especially true for the U.S. had agreed to lift all major
for all delegations to return to their the Iranian delegation from the Foreign sanctions. However, rather than a
respective capitals for consultations. Ministry, as the main decision-makers realistic assessment of the negotiations
He also added that good meetings have in Tehran is the Supreme Leader. Also, process, Rouhani’s overtly optimistic
taken place between Iran on one hand it is not clear whether in addition statements are reflective of his desire
and Russia and China on the other, as the mentioned disputes concern any to see the revival the JCPOA – his main
well as consultations with the European Western demands on non-nuclrear political project now in shatters – before
parties to the JCPOA, while working issues, i.e. Iran’s regional policies and mid-August when he must leave power.
group meetings have continued. ballistic missile programme, which However, while the eagerness of the
Tehran has consistently said is non- Biden administration to rejoin the deal
negotiable – but it may end up have to has emboldened Iranian officials. U.S.
offer concessions if the U.S. side won’t be Secretary of State Antony Blinken has
willing to grant Iran the sanctions relief recently said: “And what we haven’t
it urgently needs to allow much-needed yet seen is whether Iran is ready and
economic recovery. Moreover, despite willing to make a decision to do what
much speculation, a breakthrough in it has to do.”
Vienna before the 18 June elections may
not be probable, which can be an asset
for Iran’s hardliners who are poised to
take over the presidency and who hope
Araqchi’s description of the state of to see the benefits of a JCPOA revival
affairs signals that there are serious reaped under their rule.
hurdles between the main antagonists,
Iran and the U.S. This may concern However, Tasnim, an IURGC-affliated
(a) the question of sequencing within news agency, has written that “our
the intended compliance-versus- correspondent reported from informed
compliance mechanism meant to sources that what is currently going
bring both sides back into compliance on in Vienna is essentially far from a
with their obligations with the deal, good deal for the Iranian people.” It also
07 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05 08 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05
SOCIETAL
Voter apathy remains a constant where it stood at double that rate
feature in the run-up to the election, 73.3%. The lowest ever turnout was
paving the way for the repeat of last in 1993 with 51%, when President Ali-
year’s voter turnout fiasco for the Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani got re-
parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, elected. The highest was in 2009 with
calls for boycotts are gaining steam. 85%, when President Ahmadinejad
was re-elected. Meanwhile, the past
two presidenetial elections witnessed
a turnout of more than 70%.
Yet, these figures need to be taken
with a grain of salt, as voter turnout
is not seldom engineered by Iranian
authorities in the effort to signal,
especially to the outside world, that
a high turnout is a confirmation for
According to a 28 May poll conducted the popular legitimacy of the system.
by ISPA (seen as the most reliable It seems that this time around, these
polling agency in Iran), almost half kinds of concerns have been shelved
of respondents (47%) say they “don’t for hardliners’ thirst for monopolizing
know” whom to vote for, while almost power in all branches of governments.
44% said they will vote for Raisi.
(Traditionally, supporters of regime Moreover, the boycott campaign,
hardliners are usually keen on heeding which has been supported by Iranians
their candidates’ call to take to the outside and inside the country, has
ballot box, while the reformists’ ability gained steam. Tajzadeh, the barred
to mobilize their own supporters has reformist, blasted the Guardian
tremendously been undermined Council’s decision as turning elections
by their severe decline in popular into “appointments by the Leader.”
legitimacy over the Rouhani years). Also, the Reformist Front – a core
Besides, voting intentions for the other assembly of reformist politicians –
candidates remains well under 4%. has now joined the call for boycotting
On the before, an ISPA poll predicted the elections.
a voter turnout of 36–37%, a dramatic
decline from the previous election
09 IRAN 1400 BRIEF 24/05 — 30/05 AUTHOR Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad (Ph.D. Islamic Republic of Iran Four Decades Senior Lecturer in Middle East and SOAS) is a German–Iranian political On: The 2017/18 Protests Amid a Triple Comparative Politics), in the Ph.D. scientist with a focus on Iran, the Crisis (Brookings Analysis Paper) and program of Qatar University’s Middle East, the post-unipolar world The Politics of Culture in Times of Gulf Studies Center, at FU Berlin’s order, and right-wing populism in Rapprochement: European Cultural Center for Middle Eastern and North Europe. He is the author of the much- and Academic Exchange with Iran African Politics, the University of acclaimed Iran in an Emerging New (2015–16) (Wissenschaftsverlag Westminster, SOAS etc. Due to World Order: From Ahmadinejad WeltTrends). COVID-19, his Visiting Professorship to Rouhani (Palgrave Macmillan’s at the Centre for International Studies Studies in Iranian Politics, May 2021) Ali holds a Ph.D. in International of the University of Economics in and of the Iran 1400 Brief: Beyond Relations from the Department of Prague is postponed. the Headlines weekly newsletter Development Studies at SOAS (School (Friedrich Naumann Foundation for of Oriental and African Studies) His about 200 analytical pieces Freedom’s Middle East and North University of London and was a post- in English, German, and French Africa program). Based in Berlin, he doctoral Associate with the Harvard have been translated into a dozen is a Non-Resident Senior Research Kennedy School’s Iran Project. Also, languages. A frequent speaker at Fellow at the Afro–Middle East Centre he had been the in-house Iran expert academic conferences and political (AMEC), South Africa’s think-tank at the Brookings Institution’s Middle forums, he regularly contributes to specialized on the Middle East, as East center in Doha (BDC, 2017–20) leading international media outlets well as affiliated researcher with and the German Council on Foreign in English, German, and French. Ali Centre d’Études de la Coopération Relations (DGAP, 2015–18). is fluent in German, French, English, Internationale et du Développement and Persian, and reads Dutch. (CECID) at Université libre de Bruxelles He has taught globalization and (ULB) as well as Freie Universität (FU) development in the Middle East, https://www.fathollah-nejad.eu/ Berlin’s Center for Middle Eastern contemporary Iran, the Arab and North African Politics. In 2020, Revolts and great-power politics he published two monographs: The at the University of Tübingen (as
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