Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+ - HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline Processes - Lehrstuhl ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Automation in
Commercial Aviation
2030+
Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline
Processes
HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Copyright Statement
Copyright Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, München, 2017.
Study performed by Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, ifmo and
Flughafen München without any commercial interest.
Please note that all results, diagrams and pictures documented in this handout are only for
internal use. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the
expressed written consent of the Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München,
Airbus and Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.
Munich & Hamburg, January 2017
Slide 2
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Project Responsibilities
Technische Universität München
Gilbert Tay
Airbus Operations GmbH
Axel Becker
Process Design & Moderation
Axel Becker / Gilbert Tay
Slide 3
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Contact
Technische Universität München Airbus Operations GmbH
Lehrstuhl für Luftfahrtsysteme Cabin Marketing
Boltzmannstraße 15 Kreetslag 10
85747 Garching 21129 Hamburg
Gilbert Tay, M.Sc. Dipl.-Ing. Axel Becker
Tel: +49 (0) 89 289 16708 Tel: +49 (0) 40 743 68512
gilbert.tay@tum.de axel.becker@airbus.com
www.llls.mw.tum.de www.airbus.com
Slide 4
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Project Participants
STUDENTS EXPERTS
Martin Azzouni Gilbert Tay - Lehrstuhl für Luftfahrsysteme
Iason Bausewein Axel Becker - Airbus
Alexander Depser Annika Paul - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.
Marc Hirschka Kai Plöttner - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V
Robin Karpstein Peter Phleps - Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (ifmo)
Florian Meindl Christoph Schneider - Flughafen München GmbH
Daniel Metzler Jördis Därr - Airbus
Patrick Muschak Kevin Keniston - Airbus
Jacob Nowak
Flavio Rehn
Christina Rosenmöller
Julian Schmid
Thomas Schönberger
Slide 5
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Table of Contents
1. Welcome – Prof. Mirko Hornung (BHL/LLS), Axel Becker (Airbus) 7
2. Topic Motivation - Gilbert Tay (TUM) 12
3. Project and Scenario Approach – Gilbert Tay (TUM) 15
3. Description of Scenario Results – Students 20
– Scenario A 25
– Scenario B 42
– Scenario C 57
4. Synthesis of Scenario Results – Students 73
5. Conclusions & Outlook – Students 89
Slide 6
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome
Prof. Mirko Hornung (TUM/BHL), Axel Becker (Airbus)
Slide 7
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | Overview Institute of Aircraft Design
As part of the Institute for Aerospace at the Technische Universität München the
Institute of Aircraft Design focuses on the three topics:
Scenario Analysis, Aircraft Design Analysis & Evaluation of
Future Trends & (civil & military) Air Transport Systems
Technologies
Slide 8
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | Main Objectives
What are the main objectives of the practical course
„Air Transport Scenarios“ at TUM?
cross-system
thinking within
• To deepen the insight into the cross impacts within the air aviation
transport system on basis of a specific issue
• Presentation of scenario techniques as a methodology for presentation of
strategic planning scenario
methodology
• Strengthening of soft skills:
structured communication, organization and discussion
within groups and plenum, presentation of complex results strengthening of
soft skills
Slide 9
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | History
10th Scenario project of Airbus with TU München &
Bauhaus Luftfahrt
• Airbus is supporting the lecture since 2006.
• Since 2015 as integrated part
of Airbus Cabin Marketing (before Cabin Innovation).
• Working with scenarios to better understand future
market developments.
• Close co-operations with internal and external
stakeholders.
• “Green Airlines” scenario in 2015 part of Airbus´
sustainability approach
Slide 10“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | Focus Airbus
Automation & Robotics in Aviation
• Airlines & airports embrace smartphones as digital
companions to further guide passengers towards a
self-service environment along travel chain.
• Increasing applications and trials of automation & robotics
along passenger travel chain and airline operations.
• Drones and robots further drive airline and airport process
efficiency with smart humanoid service robots allowing an
"emotionalization" of the human machine interface.
• Identification of cabin-related needs and opportunities in
Airbus cabin strategy, R&T and innovation portfolio.
• Offer opportunities for internships and thesis projects in
Airbus Cabin Marketing.
Slide 11“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Topic Motivation
Gilbert Tay (TUM)
Slide 12“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Topic Motivation | „Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+“
• Maintaining a competitive cost structure is crucial for airlines, amidst a
persisting challenging operating environment. I.e. cost pressures to
maximize overall productivity on one hand, ensuring more consistent
operations at high standards as well as removing other constraints to
growth.
• Automation along the passenger journey and in airline operations has been
taking place in the last couple of years. E.g. self-service check-ins, bag-
drop counters, automated boarding gates.
• Technology is advancing fast in automation, robotics and artificial
intelligence:
More automation in other fields of transportation and tourism
Exploring opportunities of more automation in passenger & airline
processes
Major investments made in these new fields of technology
• Challenges:
Passenger & user acceptance
Regulation & certification issues incl. safety & health issues
Relationships with crews, ground support staff and labour unions
Slide 13“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Topic Motivation Main Questions Addressed in the
Scenario Project
Topic Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+
Region Global
Time Frame 2016 - 2030
Key questions:
1. How will future business models and strategies change in the air transport sector within an
increasing „automation“ along passenger, airline and airport processes?
2. How will passenger and staff acceptance be influenced by more automation?
3. What are the „touch points“ (hardware & software) and core technologies along the entire
travel chain („Door-2-Door“) and in airline processes?
4. What could be definitions for different grades of automation and the use of robots?
Slide 14“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario
Approach
Gilbert Tay (TUM)
Slide 15“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Techniques
Scenario techniques help to cope with
uncertainty in future developments
A scenario is a consistent picture of a
comprehensive, future situation
and
a description of how this situation has Source: Daimler STRG
emerged
The question is not what will happen but what might happen?
Slide 16“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Approach at LLS
Methodical approach of scenario projects at TUM-LLS
Scenario transfer
Problem
definition
Implication Environment
analysis analysis
Scenario Consistency
2030
storyboards analysis
Scenario
frameworks
Slide 17“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Overview
Automation Environmental Analysis – Status Quo 2016
Kick-Off
Introduction to current developments and applications
Golden Age of Automation Scenario presentations:
Workshop 1 • Scenario description
Inclusive Development
• Travel-Chain Analysis
Security First • SWOT-Analysis
Workshop 2 Travel Chain Analysis – In 3 Scenarios 2030
Operational Implementation SWOT-Analysis
Awareness
Derivation of various Grades of Automation
Passenger
Workshop 3
Various Scenario-Specific Stakeholder 2030 2030
Implications
• Airlines • Visibility
•
•
Slide 18“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Intro to Student’s Presentation
To be presented now
Environment
analysis
Golden Age of
Automation
Structure of the
three Scenario
presentations:
Inclusive
• Scenario
Development description
• Travel-Chain
Analysis
Security First • Stakeholder
SWOT-Analysis
today 2030
Slide 19“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Description of
Scenario Results
Students
Slide 20“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | Overview of Scenario Factors
ECONOMICS, POLITICS &
TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL & PASSENGER AIRLINE & AIRPORTS
REGULATIONS
• Political stability & security • Development of ICT • Passenger acceptance of • Market structure of mobility
situation • Cyber-attack threats for automatization along travel service providers
• Legal framework for automated systems process • Use of automation to improve
automation technologies • Reliability of automated • Traffic load along passenger workplace safety
• Economic efficiency of integrated systems processes • Position of unions on
automated systems • Market penetration of • Development of air travel introduction of automation
• Investment propensity on advanced physical automated demand • Quality of access to airport
automation technologies systems • Demographic development • Airport security practices
• Development of collaborative • Level of automation during
data management aircraft ground handling
• Potential for travel time
reduction from D2D
Slide 21“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | Uncertainty-Impact (UI) Analysis
20
rather
uncertain Security situation Technology
(Political stability) development
Technological advancement
16 in ICT and A.I.
of physical automation and
robotics (incl. A.I.)
User acceptance
Mobility service providers
Infrastructure capacity
(Airlines and 3rd-parties) Legal Data and
12 (D2D and Airport)
cybersecurity
UNCERTAINTY
framework
Accessibility of airports Travel (time) Automation
(Door-2-Door) efficiency system reliaility
Ecology of Individualisation Data management
automated systems of pax needs Airport security and sharing
Air traffic demand regulations Investment
8 User experience propensity
and expectations
Consumer know-how Influence of unions Economics of
Ground-handling
and perception automation (GSE) automation
Workplace safety
4
rather Demographic development
certain (aging / restricted accessibility)
0
0 4 8 12 16 20
less important IMPACT very important
Slide 22“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | Criteria of Research
RELEVANCE DISSIMILITUDE
1 To have impact, the scenarios
should connect directly with the
mental maps and concerns of the
user.
3 The scenarios should be archetypal
and describe generically different
futures rather than variations of one
theme.
LASTING EQUILIBRIUM
Each scenario ideally should
2 4
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY
describe an equilibrium or a state in
The scenarios should be internally
which the system might exist for
consistent to be effective.
some length of time, as opposed to
being highly transient.
Slide 23“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | 3 Scenarios at a Glance
A B C
Golden Ages of Inclusive Security First
Automation Development
Revolutionary technological developments Coevolution instead of revolution Automation in aviation in a hesitant world
+ high investments in the industry Incremental introduction of user focused & turbulent times
+ Passengers expect highly personalized and faultless automatization systems Ongoing cyber attacks
services + high cooperation between MSPs strict national standards and regulations
integrated D2D travel investor distrust and lack of passenger
acceptance for automated systems
Slide 24“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A
Golden Ages of
Automation
Slide 25“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
The worldwide political situation is still tense but there aren’t any
escalations. International trade agreements have been established
between Europe, USA and South Korea which encourages the global
trade market, securing an annual average GDP growth of 1.5% in
Europe and Northern America. Due to the continued accelerated
globalization the strong economic growth of BRICS states will
continue, averaging at about 3.5%.
Thanks to the stable economy and political situation, air travel
demand increases by an average of 5.5% annually. Even though
processes are streamlined, more planes are indispensable over time.
Manual and semi-autonomous systems are being replaced by fully
autonomous systems in high risk areas to increase workplace safety.
Thanks to AI, ground support vehicles now drive autonomously, für Automatisierung
reducing costs and time between overhaul for airlines and airports.
Tasks like refuelling the plane with water and kerosene are fulfilled
automatically. This leads to reduced costs for airports and airlines.
Slide 26“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
In 2022, the Federal Ministry of Automation is founded in Germany,
based on a Japanese proof of concept in 2021. It is designed around
the principles of lean management and is in itself highly automated
and flexible. Its competences are: Setting standards for automated
systems and providing certification marks, as well as working
internationally to reduce the threat of cyber attacks and actively
pushing the development of automated systems by providing
subsidies.
The federal ministries of automation of the western hemisphere
collaborate in the Global Automation Treaty (GAT, 2024) to
encourage investments in start-ups around automated technologies
through tax incentives. The demand for well educated people is very
high.
In disputes between stakeholders and unions in the EU, the unions
achieved a guideline, obligating the industry to offer re-education for
at least 80% of the affected workforce. However, in developing
countries like India and Bangladesh, the integration of young, low
qualified workers represents a big problem, as the fight continues
between unemployed people and the application of automated
systems. Bangladesh’s Attempt to ban automated systems if they
take away jobs from humans backfired, resulting in an economic world education index
crisis in Bangladesh which is still affecting peoples lives today.
Slide 27“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
In 2030 the average passenger expects to see a cheap, yet
personalized travel experience. To meet this expectation high quality
data around each passenger is generated and shared between the
single service providers to achieve a comfortable, fast and easy D2D
chain.
The traffic load on the way to the airports decreases, even though air
travel demand rises. Based on worldwide standards for autonomous
driving established at GAT in 2024, automated vehicles such as
drones, cars, busses and trains prevent traffic jams, especially in the
dedicated autonomous lanes, where they are able to drive faster and
reduce the safe distance. This significantly improves the quality of
access to the airport for the passenger. Autonomous cars are often
offered in car sharing services, creating the advantage that the
passenger doesn’t have to drive, as well as worrying about a parking
spot. The big parking lots are now used for autonomous vehicles
from car sharing services offered by the airport as well as for rental
parking space to preserve airport earnings.
In 2027, the first drone taxi pilot project is tested which evolved from
the Airbus Vahana project. With this approach, even more time can
be saved during the D2D travel time.
Slide 28“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
Upon arriving at the airport, the passenger checks in at the safety
gate by showing his ticket and ID. The baggage is being dropped off
at the automated station. The system matches the ID with the face-
scanner data, screens the person and guides the passenger to his
gate on moving walkways. If the algorithms trigger a warning, the
passenger is further screened by security staff.
For airports, the integration of automation initially caused a problem.
A lot less space is needed, as baggage drop, security check and
emigration merge, as well as immigration, baggage claim and
customs. The attempt to fill out these areas with more customer
attractions failed in part as passenger servicing time was reduced.
Later on this problem was resolved by the rising air demand,
implicating an higher amount of passengers.
Slide 29“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
A lot is at stake with the strong market penetration of ICT. Cyber
criminals are continuously launching attacks to gain access to high
quality data, but as the systems revolutionized in the recent years,
major IT systems are robust, so that they detect and defend against
most attacks independently.
In 2026 the Geneva Cyber Convention (GCC) is adopted, entailing
political rules for cyber warfare, prohibiting attacks on civilians (data
leaks) and attacks on critical infrastructure (trains, nuclear reactors,
autonomous cars, electricity grid, …). Also the threat coming from
non-government cyber criminals was recognized. First steps to build
an international team to defend critical infrastructure and the
population from those attacks worldwide were taken and since
further expanded.
Slide 30“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
In addition to the high market penetration of ICT, the revolutionary
physical automated systems effectively lower processing times for
the passenger. The intuitive interfaces for the passenger are well
accepted by tech-savvy travelers, however older generations have a
hard time trusting the new systems. As AI still has not reached a
humanoid level of intelligence, service points, customer care and
other jobs that require human cognitive functions as emotions and
creativity are still occupied by humans. Media agencies mostly
report positively about the application of new systems on behalf of
the ministries to support user acceptance.
In the background, some ground handling tasks are still being done
manually since the architecture of planes hardly changed. However,
the workforce is supported by exoskeletons and other highly
adaptable automated systems.
The high reliability level needed for the complex tasks in the
background as well as on the interface to humans is guaranteed
through machine certifications by the federal ministries of
automation which confirm an average operating time of at least privacy ranking 2007
99.65%
After the big hacking disaster in 2023, where the database of the
John-F.-Kennedy Airport was hacked and released to public, cyber-
attacks became increasingly unsuccessful, due to robust defense
systems since then.
Slide 31“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Storyboard
The attitude towards data privacy is relatively unchanged compared
to 2016. Society is divided – many fear the effects of big data, but
ironically they still share every little bit of it if it brings them any
benefit. On the other side data privacy activists warn of this
development and demand a more transparent handling of data by
big companies. They achieve the Worldwide Data-usage Act in 2024,
giving the customer the ability to object commercial data usage.
Slide 32“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Core Messages
Continuous economic growth
Political Stability & Security situation
Political stability comparable to status quo
Revolutionary soft- & hardware development → high
Development of ICT market penetration of automated systems
Investment Propensity on Tax incentives, need to keep up with market, cost
Automation cutting, …
Expectation towards personalized Passengers expect highly personalized services due to
experience high data availability
Traffic load along passenger Non-invasive and highly automated security checks
processes enable lower travel time
Slide 33“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Timeline
Political tensions in Critical data leak at New Geneva cyber
middle east continue York JFK airport convention regulates
cyber warfare
2018 2019 2022 2023 2025 2026 2030
Federal ministry of
automation encourages
development through
legal frameworks. Fully integrated and
Industry must offer automated security,
Maiden flight Airbus Extensive use of check-in and baggage
reeducation and
Vahana automated travel drop processes
improved workplace
safety
Bundesministerium
für Automatisierung
Slide 34“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Travel Chain
Baggage Drop, Security & Retail, Shopping,
Booking & Planning
Emigration/Immigration Lounge & Waiting
• Artificial Intelligence as Personal • Passenger Screening & Profiling • Personalized Information with regards
Assistant • Aviation AI to flight/shopping/F&B
• Personalized Routing to
Gate/Shopping
Slide 35“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Travel Chain
Bus Transfer & Ground
Gate / Boarding In-Flight / Cabin
Handling
• Artificial Intelligence monitors • Autonomous vehicles operate on the • No Money on board. Cash less
passenger throughout Terminal -> No tarmac (Up until interface with the A/C) payment through facial recognition by
ID Check required anymore • Aircraft Surveillance AI linked to boarding Ticket (Billing
• Boarding optimized with respect to information)
• Drones support Pre-Flight Check
passenger Comfort enabled through AI • Automated Service Robots
• More differentiation between booking
classes
Slide 36“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Travel Chain
Baggage Claim & Aircraft MRO Between
Customer Feedback
Customs Flights
• AI reunites baggage & passenger on • Personal Assistant on smartphone • Automated Anti-Germs Warfare
automated even escalator (Human is gathers Feedback • No unauthorized access through
moved on conveyer belt) • Facial recognition enables AI to identify Aircraft Surveillance
• Screened baggage is either cleared current state of well-being • Maintenance inspections by drones
together with passenger or rerouted to
Customs
Slide 37“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Market share • Existing alliances / co- • Dependent on hub airport • High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
• operations development
Number of offered • Rather slow in innovation
destinations • Internal technology & • Missing flexibility / old topics
• Data / experience / know system operation structures / strong unions
customer groups very capabilities / know-how / etc.
well (frequent traveler • Good co-operation with • Limited door-to-door
programs) their main hub(s)
SW capabilities / know-how
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• High-end / tailored • Enhance efficiency of hub • Too slow to cope with
experience for customer operations revolutionary
groups FSC development
• Extending travel chain • Difficulty in replacing
beyond classical humans with automations
departure and arrival / (unions: 80% of staff)
possibility to cooperate • Problems in competing
with MSP / other airlines / with prices of LCCs
etc.
Slide 38“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Consistently profitable • More flexible due to the • Offer to the passenger • Limited growth potential
• route network
Cost efficiency • Not present at major • Limited internal
(outsource many choice of destinations
airports technology & system
services, low capital • Offer to the passenger operation capabilities /
• Not compelling to high
investments flexibility) know-how
value customers
• Rather fast in innovation • Lower yields in general
•
topics
SW Image issues
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• Greater efficiency of • Better understand • Airport and passenger • FSCs can achieve similar
aircraft and passenger customer base handling costs are higher cost efficiency due to
services due to greater
automation
LCC • Passengers expect highly automated services
personalized services
• Change service providers due to high data
who offer better services availability
for lower costs
Slide 39“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Network of destinations • High yield passengers • Capacity constraints due • Dependence on transfer
• Economies of scale • Passenger differentiation to high traffic market
(Passenger, A/C (esp. during peak hours) • Physical infrastructure
• Accessibility of
movements) and scope intermodal transportation • Strong dependency on development
(synergies) network carrier
• Co-operation / -branding • Often location in urban
• Diversity of business with “home” network • Long distances within areas limits options to
segments carrier SW terminals expand
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• Process optimization • Support from the • Autonomous driving • Greater potential for
• Creating new capacity government outcomes of automation: cyber-attacks
• Easing the traveler's
HUB non-used infrastructure
journey • Difficulty to tackle needs
of inhomogeneous
• Tailored passenger passenger group through
information standardized full-scale
• Personalized advertising automation
Slide 40“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• More growth potential • Proximity to destinations • Few transit passengers • Consumer expectations of
• with high awareness and international passenger
More regional and local • Cannot stimulate growth
stakeholder focused – appeal experience (retail etc.)
beyond a ceiling
ability to work together
• Higher cost of other on- • More limited ground
to support new routes transport options
airport service providers
and build airline
• • Limited cargo potential
confidence
SW Peak hour infrastructure
pressure • Highly seasonal
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• Development of • Regional competition
autonomous vehicles dedicated to easier way
• Easy shopping, cashless 2ND of access to airport
payment • High investments to
• More detailed remain market leader
personalized passenger (continuous development
database existing of technology)
customer base
Slide 41“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B
Inclusive
Development
Coevolution Instead of Revolution
Slide 42“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Storyboard
Until 2030 the global GDP has increased by 2,5% annually, as well
as the air travel demand, which increased 4,5% a year.
The increase of political instability and the continuing high threat of
cyber-attacks, have lead to an overall higher demand in security and
reliability for automated systems. Only the best systems, in terms of
safety and reliability, are introduced.
As politics are focused on other topics (due to political instability),
automation technologies are marginally regulated by legal
frameworks, what leads to few standards in this sector. Only security
relevant processes have high requirements.
Slide 43“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Storyboard
Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICT
automation technologies have been improved continuously and
introduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly used
in all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all major
airports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,
working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-
automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.
Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,
baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.
To address customer demands, existing MSPs have started
collaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2D
transportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high quality
data between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journey
from D2D through a single portal and then experience the
transportation services of the different MSPs as one product.
Slide 44“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Storyboard
Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICT
automation technologies have been improved continuously and
introduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly used
in all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all major
airports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,
working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-
automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.
Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,
baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.
To address customer demands, existing MSPs have started
collaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2D
transportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high quality
data between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journey
from D2D through a single portal and then experience the
transportation services of the different MSPs as one product.
Slide 45“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Storyboard
Quality of access to airports has been enhanced in terms of travel
duration, comfort and individualization: Automated technologies are
performing most of the tasks previously done by passengers during
their travel. Therefore, passengers have more time and can enjoy
customer tailored services along the journey for example.
The traffic load along the passenger processes has not greatly
changed: Automation has improved efficiency and process times
leading to higher airport capacities, however passenger numbers
have risen simultaneously, so that the overall reduction in D2D travel
time has been moderate. A case example for this can be the
following: A passenger can check in his baggage in the autonomous
vehicle driving him to his terminal and leave it there, and then pick it
up again once he has reached his final journey destination. Thus
waiting times for baggage drop off and pick up are avoided,
increasing the overall throughput capacity of the airport.
Slide 46“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Storyboard
In many fields, automation is found in the form of semi-automated
systems, requiring a human operator in a supervising function. E.g.
non-intrusive automated security systems have been introduced,
with special checks performed by humans if necessary; Ground
handling is partly automated, with human operators still required for
special or safety critical tasks.
Since human operators are still a required part of the (semi-
)automated system and work safety has improved due to automation
(physically demanding tasks are executed by machines), unions have
not opposed the introduction of automation.
New technologies in commercial aviation are introduced
incrementally and therefore do not overwhelm the customer. Instead
of introducing revolutionary, immature technologies, the introduced
automatization developments are working faultless and reliable,
leading to a high acceptance among passengers.
In this world automation doesn’t revolutionize the way of travelling
immediately but rather slowly and steadily, therefore it doesn’t
overwhelm all involved parties (passengers, the market, all
stakeholders). Revolution always leads to conflict in certain areas
(regulation, passenger acceptance, unions) but a inclusive
coevolution, where human and machine work alongside each other
might result in a plausible and bright scenario for the future of
automation in commercial aviation.
Slide 47“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Core Messages
Airport throughput capacity and RPK increase load
Development of Air Travel Demand factor remains unchanged
Expectation Towards Personalized The passenger of 2030 demands a personalized travel
Experience experience
Incremental introduction of customer focused and
Evolutionary Development faultless automatization systems
Development of Collaborative Data High cooperation between MSPs integrated D2D
Management travel
Passenger Acceptance of High acceptance for semi-automated systems among all
Automation passengers
Slide 48“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Timeline
Lufthansa offers BMW start series (Semi-)automated
integrated D2D travel production of airports show great rise
service autonomous cars in capacity, increasing
profitability while
simultaneously lowering
landing fees
2018 2019 2022 2025 2029 2033 2035
Car sharing available in Japanese government World’s first (semi-) Almost all major airports
every major city promotes the automated airport are (semi-)automated,
development of an emerges in Japan with automatization
(semi-)automated airport being demanded and
with research funds considered as normal by
passengers
Slide 49“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Travel Chain
Baggage Drop, Security & Retail, Shopping,
Booking & Planning
Emigration/Immigration Lounge & Waiting
• Integrated planning, booking & • Bag pick up robots trolley robots are • Personalized travel information through
ticketing available in all important airport areas personal electronics
• Due to cooperating MSPs D2D travel • Baggage can be “checked-in” inside of • Info on best paths / routes through the
products can be booked under one autonomous cars airport, shopping suggestions, time /
ticket • Fully automated security check with duration / delay information, info on
• Integrated D2D-travel human operator on (only) supervising destination
function • Waiting areas are becoming more and
more obsolete due to better (i.e. more
time-efficient) connections
Slide 50“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Travel Chain
Bus Transfer & Ground
Gate / Boarding In-Flight / Cabin
Handling
• Fully automated • Automated busses (controlled by • Highly personalized in-flight
• Exact prediction ground / apron controller) entertainment
• Display of boarding times • Human operators still present (on / off • Recommendations based on previous
loading of aircraft bulk cargo), but travels and on travel destination
assisted by automated technologies
(exoskeletons)
• Push back vehicles fully automated
(but: push back command issued by
human ground/apron controller)
Slide 51“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Travel Chain
Baggage Claim & Aircraft MRO Between
Customer Feedback
Customs Flights
• Baggage delivery in autonomous car to • Data is gathered actively • Refueling and replenish of goods only
final destination ( integrated D2D) (questionnaires) and passively(other supervised
• Baggage delivery directly to final data / behavior) throughout the travel • Inspection and deicing by drones
destination (independent of passenger operated by humans
travel from airport to final destination) • Rubbish collecting robot
• Customs procedures only automated in
countries where shopping data are
shared with government agencies
(customs)
Slide 52“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Market share • Existing alliances / co- • Dependent on hub airport • High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
• operations development
Number of offered • Rather slow in innovation
destinations • Internal technology & • Missing flexibility / old topics
• Data / experience / know system operation structures / strong unions
customer groups very capabilities / know-how / etc.
well (frequent traveler • Good co-operation with • Limited door-to-door
programs) their main hub(s)
SW capabilities / know-how
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• Evolutionary tech • Possibility to cooperate • Choose higher revenues
development fits with MSP Extending instead of innovations
inflexible company
structures
travel chain FSC • Problems to compete
with lower prices of LCCs
• Automation is not • Decrease in non-aviation
perceived as cost revenues
reduction measurement
Slide 53“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Consistently profitable • More flexible due to the • Offer to the passenger • Limited growth potential
• route network
Cost efficiency • Not present at major • Limited internal
(outsource many choice of destinations
airports technology & system
services, low capital • Offer to the passenger operation capabilities /
• Not compelling to high
investments flexibility) know-how
value customers
• Rather fast in innovation • Lower yields in general
•
topics
SW Image issues
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• Blurred lines between • FSC can achieve similar
FSC and LCC cost efficiency
encourages LCC to
acquire FSCs
LCC • High cooperation
between MSP and FSC is
• Long-haul flights become not offered to LCC
attractive to LCCs • Passengers expect highly
• Higher process & cost personalized services
efficiency
Slide 54“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Network of destinations • High yield passengers • Capacity constraints due • Dependence on transfer
• Economies of scale • Passenger differentiation to high traffic market
(Passenger, A/C (esp. during peak hours) • Physical infrastructure
• Accessibility of
movements) and scope intermodal transportation • Strong dependency on development
(synergies) network carrier
• Co-operation / -branding • Often location in urban
• Diversity of business with “home” network • Long distances within areas limits options to
segments carrier SW terminals expand
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• New business models • Through the use of semi- • Introduction of new
for Airport automatization technologies can be
• Gradual implementation expectations of
inhomogeneous
HUB more expensive due to
lack of standardization
of technologies is
possible passenger group can be • Risk of unused / empty
met infrastructures
Slide 55“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• More growth potential • Proximity to destinations • Few transit passengers • Consumer expectations
• with high awareness and of international passenger
More regional and local • Cannot stimulate growth
stakeholder focused – appeal experience (retail etc.)
beyond a ceiling
Higher cost of other on- •
ability to work together More limited ground
•
to support new routes transport options
airport service providers
and build airline
• Peak hour infrastructure • Limited cargo potential
confidence
SW pressure • Highly seasonal
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• High acceptance • Higher investments in
between passengers technology to stay
• Predictable passenger 2ND competitive
load and distribution • High sophisticated
• Evolutionary progress in customer expectations
technology constant • Risk of unused / empty
development infrastructures
Slide 56“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C
Security First
Automation in Aviation in a Hesitant World & Turbulent
Times
Slide 57“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Storyboard
Multilateral co-operations between Western nations become weaker.
At the same time, an increasing number of threats and therefore
insecurities hinder the establishment of strong multinational
partnerships, while existing contracts are being broken up. This
results in a “reduced European Union” existing with its core
members only. This leads to heavily fluctuating exchange rates and
high risks and volatility on the financial markets. Moreover, after the
USA leaves the NATO due to an increasing distrust in military
collaboration, multiple other nations follow this incident. As a result,
Russia is able to establish stronger bonds under pressure with its
neighboring countries and new partners, including the USA in the
second row as well.
In the Middle East a new alliance, called "Middle Eastern
League"(M.E.L) is founded by the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Bahrain and several other Arabian countries. One part of the contract
regulates freedom of trade and travel between its contract partners,
preferring M.E.L. states while reducing foreign trade and transport.
Meanwhile the World Bank estimates the worldwide economical
growth to less than 2% for the upcoming 20 years. The passenger air
traffic may increase by 4,5% due to high global population growth.
Slide 58“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Storyboard
While the trust between nations decreases, a rising number of cyber
terrorist hacker attacks and threats affects the national security of
many countries. Moreover, a successful threat by, so called
hacktivists against AT&T diminishes public faith in American IT,
automated and intelligent systems. The occurrence is presented by
media coverage in an exaggerating negative way. Those incidents
make security to the key of all interest for all new strategic programs
at ICAO and for all other regulations in commercial aviation. New
special security guidelines for automation are established in every
possible working field. Most of the existing technologies are not able
to comply with those new standards. Therefore only high-standard
and expensive technologies can succeed in the market and will be
developed by nearly every single country or union on their own.
Slide 59“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Storyboard
Most of those new revolutionary technologies in automation can not
be implemented due to a lack of public faith. Passengers tend to
refuse physical automated systems in comfort areas and sometimes
security areas as well because of negative media coverage about
former accidents. As an future projection example: After the
introduction of fully automated “robo-taxis” at the Frankfurt airport,
there has just been a slack demand and therefore those systems
could not be integrated in most of the other travel chains which are
connected to commercial aviation ground infrastructures. At the
same time, there are upcoming problems with the quality of access
at big airports. Strong growth of metropolitan areas result in high
traffic jams especially during peak hours. Automated systems could
solve those problems but besides the strict regulations the
investment costs are too high.
Although people try to avoid physical automated systems, most still
buy and use latest mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets
with AI and other revolutionary technologies. ICT stays an integral
part of a passenger’s life and social media is further established as
the most popular communication tool. In general ICT users don´t
claim about commercial data sharing if search algorithms and
software tools are running automated in the background.
Slide 60“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Storyboard
At Munich Airport an implementation of a new automated service
goes completely wrong: A university research project introduced an
application for smartphones to replace physical signs and airport
service staff for guidance through airport terminals. The app has
become a commercially successful business model which is sold to
other international airports as well after a short period of time
because unions couldn’t block the app introduction due to different
legal frameworks in different countries. One day, there has been a
complete system hack. The flight booking system broke down as
well because of billions of faked terminal-gate search app-requests.
As a result Munich Airport and all the other participating airports
remove the app and its support and return back to former terminal
service concepts which cost a multiple.
Slide 61“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Storyboard
The low time efficiency of most commercial aviation services and
therefore additional waiting times in queues and traffic jams lead to
unpredictable travelling comfort for passengers. Moreover there is a
lack of incentives for collaboration between different mobility service
providers due to a strict legal framework. Contracts are barely
negotiable, due to new and harder job safety rules. Furthermore
high security standards make it hard for new business partners
entering the market or establishing international business
collaborations.
To improve the work conditions inside airports, American and
German unions fight for the implementation of semi-automated
systems for the airport security without reducing staff and workplace
safety and support as well e.g. with exoskeletons. In most of the
modern countries it is difficult to hire young staff for simple process
and production work. Moreover it is not allowed to hire immigrants
from foreign countries for those kinds of job. Most American airports
are under pressure to introduce a cost intensive mixture of direct and
indirect airport security methods. Because of new national U.S.-
security standards which have to be fulfilled by the connected
international airports as well the amount of incoming and outgoing
U.S.-flights has to be reduced.
Slide 62“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Storyboard
In Europe, some airports introduce new ICT technologies in their
airport information systems to enable real-time information between
employees achieving a more responsible and agile ICT-system. This
results in a higher workplace safety and improves the economic
efficiency of nearly all of the concerning systems. The generic
structure of those systems allows the implementation at most of the
major airports which have to sponsor the costs unwillingly. Unions in
Germany encourage the introduction of airport information systems
in order to achieve a higher level of workplace security and safety. In
modern international airports exoskeletons and comparable
technologies are being used as a standard, such as in new opened
airports in Istanbul, the Middle East and East Asia.
Slide 63“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Core Messages
NATO dissolves, EU & the € struggle, Arabian countries
Political Stability & Security Situation strengthen multilateral cooperation, Russia strengthens &
increases USA cooperation
Cyber Attack Threats on Automated Ongoing attacks force economy and politics to national
Systems regulation without international compatibility
Low passenger acceptance & strict legal frameworks
Passenger Acceptance & Economic slower market penetration & too high in investment costs
Efficiency for automatization
Workplace Safety, Airport Security & Automated Systems are implemented in background
Position of Unions processes and in non-public areas
ICAO & other regulations put security as key interest for
Security Key Interest all new strategic progams
Slide 64“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Timeline
EU and the Euro Unions fight for Most of the automation
currency struggle. automation technologies technologies are too
Moreover, the UAE form that support employees; high in investment costs;
a stronger multilateral there are hardly chances problems with traffic
cooperation with Oman, to hire young or jams, access to airports
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and immigrant persons and passenger
other Arabian countries processes are increasing
2016 2017 2020 2022 2025 2030 2035
Unions fight for Lower air traffic but also
Political changes in the Opening of the world‘s automation technologies no economical growth
USA and Europe; we largest airport in Dubai; that support employees. (“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Travel Chain
Baggage Drop, Security & Retail, Shopping,
Booking & Planning
Emigration/Immigration Lounge & Waiting
• Personalized marketing through • Automated systems are only in contact • Data trading formats for customer data
cookies with staff exchange / sales
• Protection service for personal data • Information system for passengers • Customer profiling for understanding
• Hidden automation without contact (data collection) processes within airport
with customers • Warning systems for dangerous loads • Autonomous customer transport
vehicle for people with limited mobility,
but often unused because of trust
issues
Slide 66“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Travel Chain
Bus Transfer & Ground
Gate / Boarding In-Flight / Cabin
Handling
• Autonomous customer transport • Autonomous vehicle for people with • No obvious automation
vehicle for people with limited mobility limited mobility • Single information systems and real-
• Less automation less trust issues by • Exoskeletons help staff and aim for time handling of data possible
passengers better workplace efficiency • No worldwide standards
• Information systems for employees are • Information systems are generated for
a common auxiliary, sometimes with each airport individually
unreliable hardware
Slide 67“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Travel Chain
Baggage Claim & Aircraft MRO Between
Customer Feedback
Customs Flights
• Baggage scanning systems and early- • No obvious automation • Staff is supported by exoskeletons, but
warning systems for dangerous loads • Automation systems are not reliable technology can’t replace special
• Information system for incoming enough machinery or staff
passengers • Certain happenings lead to wrong • Information systems (if they are used)
• Support of custom officers handling in investments get bigger, better, and more reliable
unsecure situations • Every automation system means
disproportinally high investment costs
Slide 68“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Market share • Existing alliances / co- • Dependent on hub airport • High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
• operations development
Number of offered • Rather slow in innovation
destinations • Internal technology & • Missing flexibility / old topics
• Data / experience / know system operation structures / strong unions
customer groups very capabilities / know-how / etc.
well (frequent traveler • Good co-operation with • Limited door-to-door
programs) their main hub(s)
SW capabilities / know-how
OPPORTUNITIES
O T THREATS
• Able to meet security • Able to use personalized • Current flight plans • Image loss after
regulations of hub advertisement for might have to change successful cyber attacks
processes additional revenue FSC due to more border
controls
is higher for FSCs in
comparison to LCCs
• Able to introduce
automated background • Heavy increase in D2D
systems with new, travel times in
standard-conform, comparison to
reliable & secure ICT alternatives
technology
Slide 69You can also read
