2021 Tech Trends Report - New Realities Synthetic Media News Information
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Volume 3 of 12 14th Annual Edition 2021 New Realities Tech Trends Synthetic Media Report News Strategic trends that will influence business, Information government, education, media and society in the coming year.
New Realities, Synthetic Media, 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 News & Information 03 Overview 24 Using Synthetic Media to Get 04 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends Around Copyright Laws 06 Summary 24 Synthetic Media Marketplaces 08 New Realities 24 Truth Decay in an Era of Synthetic Media 09 Keeping Track of New Realities 25 News and Information 10 Diminished Reality 26 Expert Insight: How the News Industry 11 Smart Eyewear and Must Evolve to Fit into Daily Life Head-Mounted Displays 28 Cancel Culture and 12 AR for the Enterprise Accountability Politics 13 Holograms 29 Sensory Journalism 14 Scenario: Eco-Sight 30 Geography Reshapes the Virtual World 15 Spatial Displays 31 Scenario: Reality Prescriptions 16 360° Video 32 The End of Attention Metrics 16 Volumetric Video 33 Digital Frailty 16 Spatial Audio 34 Sensitive Content Warnings 16 WebAR/WebVR 35 New Search Interfaces 16 The Metaverse 36 Expert Insight: New Horizons 17 Expert Insight: The Future in Book Publishing of Live Entertainment 39 Journalism-as-a-Service 20 Synthetic Media and Content 40 One-to-Few Networks 22 Synthetic Media Technologies 41 Media Consolidation 22 Speech Synthesis 42 I-Teams for Algorithms and Data 22 Modulating Custom Voices 43 The Subscription Economy Matures 22 Deep Behaviors and Predictive 44 Trust in Media Machine Vision 45 The First Amendment in a Digital Age 22 Generative Algorithms for Voice, Sound, and Video 46 Scenario: AutoINcorrecting History 22 Mapped Synthetic Environments 47 Application 23 Synthetic Media and Society 48 Key Questions 23 Live Portraits 49 Sources 23 Synth-pop Makes a Comeback 50 Authors 23 Simulating Human Experiences 54 Why FTI 23 Synthetic Voice Fraud 55 About FTI 24 Synthetic Sex Tapes 56 Disclaimer 24 Synthetic Property Rights 57 Creative Commons License and Legal Protections
New Realities, Synthetic Media, 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 News & Information Overview The 1920s began in chaos. Cata- It’s difficult not to see striking ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed clysmic disruption resulting from parallels to our modern world. A nearly 500 technology and science the first world war and the Spanish tumultuous U.S. election, extreme trends across multiple industry flu shuttered businesses and pro- weather events and Covid-19 sectors. In each volume, we discuss voked xenophobia. Technological continue to test our resolve and the disruptive forces, opportunities marvels like the radio, refrigerator, our resilience. Exponential tech- and strategies that will drive your vacuum cleaner, moving assembly nologies—artificial intelligence, organization in the near future. line and electronic power trans- synthetic biology, exascale com- Now, more than ever, your organi- mission generated new growth, puting, autonomous robots, and zation should examine the poten- even as the wealth gap widened. off-planet missions to space—are tial near and long-term impact of More than two-thirds of Ameri- challenging our assumptions about tech trends. You must factor the cans survived on wages too low to human potential. Under lockdown, trends in this report into your stra- sustain everyday living. The pace we’ve learned how to work from tegic thinking for the coming year, of scientific innovation—the dis- our kitchen tables, lead from our and adjust your planning, opera- covery of insulin, the first modern spare rooms, and support each tions and business models accord- antibiotics, and insights into theo- other from afar. But this disruption ingly. But we hope you will make retical physics and the structure of has only just begun. time for creative exploration. From atoms—forced people to reconsid- With the benefit of both hindsight chaos, a new world will come. er their cherished beliefs. and strategic foresight, we can The sheer scale of change, and the choose a path of reinvention. Our great uncertainty that came with 2021 Tech Trends Report is de- it, produced two factions: those signed to help you confront deep who wanted to reverse time and uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For Amy Webb return the world to normal, and this year’s edition, the magnitude Founder those who embraced the chaos, of new signals required us to cre- The Future Today Institute faced forward, and got busy build- ate 12 separate volumes, and each ing the future. report focuses on a cluster of relat- 03 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 6 1 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends 2 3 4 5 For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re- searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result. Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business. We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries, including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination. Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories. Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk. Each trend offers six important insights. 1. Years on the List 2. Key Insight 4. Disruptive Impact 6. Action Scale Informs Strategy We track longitudinal tech and Concise description of this trend The implications of this trend on FTI’s analysis of what action your Strong evidence and data. Longer- science trends. This measurement that can be easily understood and your business, government, or organization should take. Fields term uncertainties remain. Use it to indicates how long we have repeated to others. society. include: inform your strategic planning. followed the trend and its progression. 3. Examples 5. Emerging Players Watch Closely Act Now Real-world use cases, some of Individuals, research teams, Mounting evidence and data, but Ample evidence and data. This which should be familiar to you. startups, and other organizations more maturity is needed. Use it to trend is already mature and emerging in this space. inform your vision, planning, and requires action. research. 04 © 2021 Future Today Institute
New Realities, Synthetic Media, 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 News & Information Macro Forces and Emerging Trends Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal- lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact, high-uncertainty situations using signals available today. 1 1. Headline 2 A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes. 2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3 A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic. 3. Narrative The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments leading us to this point in our future history. Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali- tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re- search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter- views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula- tive fiction. 05 © 2021 Future Today Institute
New Realities, Synthetic Media, 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 News & Information + As current forms of digitally + The combined augmented and mediated reality evolve and new forms emerge, they are poised to virtual reality market is estimated merge along a virtuality-reality to be valued in the hundreds of spectrum. billions of dollars within the next decade. New Realities, + Diminished reality, or DR, is a + Synthetic media will become form of augmented reality fo- cused on suppressing existing an integral part of our future XR elements of our physical envi- experiences. ronment, rather than introducing + In the wrong hands, synthetic Synthetic new digital elements to it. DR media can be a powerful and represents a unique and exten- dangerous tool in spreading mis- sive range of AR applications. information and disinformation. + The shift from hands-on to + As margins continue to shrink in heads-up is upon us, marked Media, News news media, industry consolida- by the gradual transition from tion continues, at the expense of smartphones to smart eyewear. journalistic integrity. + With advancements in spatial in- + News outlets are encountering ternet, and the impending spread & Information competition well beyond their in- of 5G and smart eyewear, the dustry as the subscription econ- prospect of a metaverse—a per- omy matures and an ever-grow- sistent, shared, digitally mediated ing list of companies vie for the realm that layers into the physical attention, time, and money of an world—is coming into focus. overstimulated audience. Summary + Smart eyewear will rely in part on advanced voice technology, so expect investment and ad- vancements in natural language processing and generation, and emotive recognition. 06 © 2021 Future Today Institute
New Realities, Synthetic Media, 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 News & Information I do think that a significant portion of the population of developed countries, and eventually all countries, will have AR experiences every day, almost like eating three meals a day. It will become that much a part of you. — Apple CEO Tim Cook © 2021 Future Today Institute
You can also read