2021 Tech Trends Report - New Realities Synthetic Media News Information

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2021 Tech Trends Report - New Realities Synthetic Media News Information
Volume 3 of 12

14th Annual Edition

2021                                             New
                                                 Realities
Tech Trends                                      Synthetic
                                                 Media
Report                                           News
Strategic trends that will influence business,   Information
government, education, media and society
in the coming year.
2021 Tech Trends Report - New Realities Synthetic Media News Information
New Realities, Synthetic Media,
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                                                                                        News & Information

03   Overview                                    24   Using Synthetic Media to Get
04   Macro Forces and Emerging Trends                 Around Copyright Laws
06   Summary                                     24   Synthetic Media Marketplaces
08   New Realities                               24   Truth Decay in an Era
                                                      of Synthetic Media
09   Keeping Track of New Realities
                                                 25   News and Information
10   Diminished Reality
                                                 26   Expert Insight: How the News Industry
11   Smart Eyewear and
                                                      Must Evolve to Fit into Daily Life
     Head-Mounted Displays
                                                 28   Cancel Culture and
12   AR for the Enterprise
                                                      Accountability Politics
13   Holograms
                                                 29   Sensory Journalism
14   Scenario: Eco-Sight
                                                 30   Geography Reshapes the Virtual World
15   Spatial Displays
                                                 31   Scenario: Reality Prescriptions
16   360° Video
                                                 32   The End of Attention Metrics
16   Volumetric Video
                                                 33   Digital Frailty
16   Spatial Audio
                                                 34   Sensitive Content Warnings
16   WebAR/WebVR
                                                 35   New Search Interfaces
16   The Metaverse
                                                 36   Expert Insight: New Horizons
17   Expert Insight: The Future                       in Book Publishing
     of Live Entertainment
                                                 39   Journalism-as-a-Service
20   Synthetic Media and Content
                                                 40   One-to-Few Networks
22   Synthetic Media Technologies
                                                 41   Media Consolidation
22   Speech Synthesis
                                                 42   I-Teams for Algorithms and Data
22   Modulating Custom Voices
                                                 43   The Subscription Economy Matures
22   Deep Behaviors and Predictive
                                                 44   Trust in Media
     Machine Vision
                                                 45   The First Amendment in a Digital Age
22   Generative Algorithms for Voice,
     Sound, and Video                            46   Scenario: AutoINcorrecting History
22   Mapped Synthetic Environments               47   Application
23   Synthetic Media and Society                 48   Key Questions
23   Live Portraits                              49   Sources
23   Synth-pop Makes a Comeback                  50   Authors
23   Simulating Human Experiences                54   Why FTI
23   Synthetic Voice Fraud                       55   About FTI
24   Synthetic Sex Tapes                         56   Disclaimer
24   Synthetic Property Rights                   57   Creative Commons License
     and Legal Protections
2021 Tech Trends Report - New Realities Synthetic Media News Information
New Realities, Synthetic Media,
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                                                                        News & Information

Overview
                                                       The 1920s began in chaos. Cata-                    It’s difficult not to see striking      ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed
                                                       clysmic disruption resulting from                  parallels to our modern world. A        nearly 500 technology and science
                                                       the first world war and the Spanish                tumultuous U.S. election, extreme       trends across multiple industry
                                                       flu shuttered businesses and pro-                  weather events and Covid-19             sectors. In each volume, we discuss
                                                       voked xenophobia. Technological                    continue to test our resolve and        the disruptive forces, opportunities
                                                       marvels like the radio, refrigerator,              our resilience. Exponential tech-       and strategies that will drive your
                                                       vacuum cleaner, moving assembly                    nologies—artificial intelligence,       organization in the near future.
                                                       line and electronic power trans-                   synthetic biology, exascale com-
                                                                                                                                                  Now, more than ever, your organi-
                                                       mission generated new growth,                      puting, autonomous robots, and
                                                                                                                                                  zation should examine the poten-
                                                       even as the wealth gap widened.                    off-planet missions to space—are
                                                                                                                                                  tial near and long-term impact of
                                                       More than two-thirds of Ameri-                     challenging our assumptions about
                                                                                                                                                  tech trends. You must factor the
                                                       cans survived on wages too low to                  human potential. Under lockdown,
                                                                                                                                                  trends in this report into your stra-
                                                       sustain everyday living. The pace                  we’ve learned how to work from
                                                                                                                                                  tegic thinking for the coming year,
                                                       of scientific innovation—the dis-                  our kitchen tables, lead from our
                                                                                                                                                  and adjust your planning, opera-
                                                       covery of insulin, the first modern                spare rooms, and support each
                                                                                                                                                  tions and business models accord-
                                                       antibiotics, and insights into theo-               other from afar. But this disruption
                                                                                                                                                  ingly. But we hope you will make
                                                       retical physics and the structure of               has only just begun.
                                                                                                                                                  time for creative exploration. From
                                                       atoms—forced people to reconsid-
                                                                                                          With the benefit of both hindsight      chaos, a new world will come.
                                                       er their cherished beliefs.
                                                                                                          and strategic foresight, we can
                                                       The sheer scale of change, and the                 choose a path of reinvention. Our
                                                       great uncertainty that came with                   2021 Tech Trends Report is de-
                                                       it, produced two factions: those                   signed to help you confront deep
                                                       who wanted to reverse time and                     uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For      Amy Webb
                                                       return the world to normal, and                    this year’s edition, the magnitude
                                                                                                                                                  Founder
                                                       those who embraced the chaos,                      of new signals required us to cre-
                                                                                                                                                  The Future Today Institute
                                                       faced forward, and got busy build-                 ate 12 separate volumes, and each
                                                       ing the future.                                    report focuses on a cluster of relat-

03                                                                                                                                                                             © 2021 Future Today Institute
2021 Tech Trends Report - New Realities Synthetic Media News Information
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                                                                                                                                                     6

                                                                                                    1

Macro Forces and
Emerging Trends                                                                                                         2                     3                    4                               5

For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re-
searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result.
Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our
futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities
for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business.
We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries,
including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find
a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.

Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.

Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for
key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.

Each trend offers six important insights.

1. Years on the List                       2. Key Insight                         4. Disruptive Impact                      6. Action Scale                        Informs Strategy
  We track longitudinal tech and             Concise description of this trend      The implications of this trend on         FTI’s analysis of what action your   Strong evidence and data. Longer-
  science trends. This measurement           that can be easily understood and      your business, government, or             organization should take. Fields     term uncertainties remain. Use it to
  indicates how long we have                 repeated to others.                    society.                                  include:                             inform your strategic planning.
  followed the trend and its
  progression.                             3. Examples                            5. Emerging Players                         Watch Closely                        Act Now

                                             Real-world use cases, some of          Individuals, research teams,              Mounting evidence and data, but      Ample evidence and data. This
                                             which should be familiar to you.       startups, and other organizations         more maturity is needed. Use it to   trend is already mature and
                                                                                    emerging in this space.                   inform your vision, planning, and    requires action.
                                                                                                                              research.
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                                                                                  News & Information

Macro Forces and
Emerging Trends

Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes
You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and
converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal-
lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact,
high-uncertainty situations using signals available today.                                                                                    1

1. Headline                                                                                                                                   2
  A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes.

2. Temporal and Emotive Tags                                                                                                                  3
  A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is
  optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic.

3. Narrative
  The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments
  leading us to this point in our future history.

Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali-
tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical
sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re-
search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter-
views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula-
tive fiction.

05                                                                                                                  © 2021 Future Today Institute
New Realities, Synthetic Media,
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                                                                      News & Information
                                                                                                        + As current forms of digitally
                                                                                                                                                + The combined augmented and
                                                                                                          mediated reality evolve and new
                                                                                                          forms emerge, they are poised to        virtual reality market is estimated
                                                                                                          merge along a virtuality-reality        to be valued in the hundreds of
                                                                                                          spectrum.                               billions of dollars within the next
                                                                                                                                                  decade.

New Realities,
                                                                                                        + Diminished reality, or DR, is a
                                                                                                                                                + Synthetic media will become
                                                                                                          form of augmented reality fo-
                                                                                                          cused on suppressing existing           an integral part of our future XR
                                                                                                          elements of our physical envi-          experiences.
                                                                                                          ronment, rather than introducing
                                                                                                                                                + In the wrong hands, synthetic

Synthetic
                                                                                                          new digital elements to it. DR
                                                                                                                                                  media can be a powerful and
                                                                                                          represents a unique and exten-
                                                                                                                                                  dangerous tool in spreading mis-
                                                                                                          sive range of AR applications.
                                                                                                                                                  information and disinformation.
                                                                                                        + The shift from hands-on to
                                                                                                                                                + As margins continue to shrink in
                                                                                                          heads-up is upon us, marked

Media, News
                                                                                                                                                  news media, industry consolida-
                                                                                                          by the gradual transition from
                                                                                                                                                  tion continues, at the expense of
                                                                                                          smartphones to smart eyewear.
                                                                                                                                                  journalistic integrity.
                                                                                                        + With advancements in spatial in-
                                                                                                                                                + News outlets are encountering
                                                                                                          ternet, and the impending spread

& Information
                                                                                                                                                  competition well beyond their in-
                                                                                                          of 5G and smart eyewear, the
                                                                                                                                                  dustry as the subscription econ-
                                                                                                          prospect of a metaverse—a per-
                                                                                                                                                  omy matures and an ever-grow-
                                                                                                          sistent, shared, digitally mediated
                                                                                                                                                  ing list of companies vie for the
                                                                                                          realm that layers into the physical
                                                                                                                                                  attention, time, and money of an
                                                                                                          world—is coming into focus.
                                                                                                                                                  overstimulated audience.

Summary
                                                                                                        + Smart eyewear will rely in part
                                                                                                          on advanced voice technology,
                                                                                                          so expect investment and ad-
                                                                                                          vancements in natural language
                                                                                                          processing and generation, and
                                                                                                          emotive recognition.

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                                                                          I do think that a significant portion of the population of
                                                                          developed countries, and eventually all countries, will
                                                                          have AR experiences every day, almost like eating three
                                                                          meals a day. It will become that much a part of you.
                                                                                  — Apple CEO Tim Cook

                                                                                                                                       © 2021 Future Today Institute
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