2018 DEER HUNTING FORECAST - Region 9 - NY.gov
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2018 DEER HUNTING FORECAST Region 9 Region 9 is the westernmost region in New York. Encompassing six counties and approximately 5,353 square miles, this region is composed primarily of two major ecozones: the Lake Plains of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and the Appalachian Plateau. The northern half of the region (the Lake Plains ecozone) is characterized by flat topography and human activity focused on agriculture and urban/suburban uses with small woodlots interspersed. A majority of this area is considered excellent deer habitat, as it offers an abundance of natural and agriculturally derived foods, fertile soils and mild winters (excluding areas of lake-effect snow). The southern half of Region 9 (the Appalachian Plateau ecozone) is characterized by hilly terrain and vast expanses of forestland. Human habitation is less dense here, and agriculture also decreases as one progresses south, due to steeper slopes and less fertile soils. Though not as productive as lands to the north, the southern half of Region 9 offers good deer hunting opportunities. In the extreme southern tier, large tracts of mature forest dominate the landscape. As these forests continue to mature, the need for habitat improvement will become more apparent. Landowners willing to put forth the effort and expense to improve their lands through active forest management and creation of young forest habitat will see better hunting. The total 2017 deer harvest in Region 9 was approximately 36,784—nearly a 2% drop from 2016. A portion of that drop was likely due to the reduction in DMPs available in some southern tier units. The buck harvest in Region 9 actually increased 4.5%, with approximately 19,039 bucks taken in 2017. We began to see the effects of two consecutive mild winters, as there was a surge of yearlings and fawns on the landscape. This can be seen by looking at the proportion of buck fawns in the 2017 antlerless harvest [pg. 8 of the 2017 Deer Harvest Summary]. The 2018 hunting season should continue to reap benefits from these mild winters with an increasing abundance of adult bucks—especially 2½ year-olds. There should also be a bumper crop of yearlings, as last year’s fawns will now sport their first set of antlers this fall. It’s times like these when hunters can play a vital role in enhancing their future deer hunting experiences by choosing to pass up these young bucks, allowing more of them to make it into adulthood. Region 9 has a large contrast between its two ecozones. Generally, population objectives are lower in the north and higher in the south, because human density and associated activities in the north result in different social tolerances for deer. This necessitates different population objectives. We urge hunters to help us meet management goals by taking antlerless deer wherever DMPs are available. Hunters are the biologist’s “silver bullet” when it comes to managing the deer herd. Access for hunting continues to be a major concern for NYSDEC. We promote access for hunting on all DEC-owned lands wherever possible. There are many opportunities for public access and hunting throughout Region 9, with the best access occurring in the south. There are also a number of cooperative hunting areas in the region, giving hunters additional lands on which to recreate. Finally, there are many landowners willing to allow hunting on private lands. We encourage you to ask permission from these landowners to get access to private lands and to always be mindful that you are a guest. WE For more information, or to sign up for email updates from NYSDEC, visit our website: www.dec.ny.gov
ALSO encourage landowners to seriously consider allowing responsible hunters access to their properties to help promote the sport of hunting and continue effective management of the deer herd through hunting. Unit Summaries for the 2018 Season Included in the discussion of most WMUs is a term called the Buck Take Objective (BTO). The BTO for a WMU is the number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested per square mile when the WMU’s deer population is at the desired level as recommended by a Citizen Task Force. The BTO is not the estimated take for the coming season but rather is the objective of our management efforts. The annual buck harvest is used as a gauge of population size and its relationship to the desired population level. WMU 9A Area = 462 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 1.9 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 1.1 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 4.6 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9A is situated primarily in Niagara County but also includes Erie County’s Grand Island Township. This unit is characterized by relatively flat land sloping north toward Lake Ontario. The majority of the landscape comprises small stands of mixed hardwood forest and expansive agricultural fields, orchards and vineyards, with a number of wetlands intermixed. There is very little public access for hunting in this unit, so most hunters will need to arrange access to private lands. The only public hunting land available in this unit is the Hartland Swamp WMA. Hunters who can secure permission on land containing small woodlots and vegetated drainages that act as travel corridors should have good success. Lack of public land coupled with private land use patterns may have a greater role in determining deer harvest here than the number of deer available. Buck take in 9A has consistently been above objective despite liberal antlerless permit allocations, further suggesting that hunter access is an issue in this unit. WMU 9A has been identified as one of several units in Region 9 where alternative measures are needed to increase antlerless harvest. Resident and non-resident applicants will have a high probability of obtaining first and second permits. As in past years, it is likely that the number of permits available will exceed the number of applicants. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 2
WMU 9F Area = 277 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 3.2 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 2.5 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 7.1 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9F is located in Erie and Niagara Counties, primarily in the suburban areas east and northeast of metro Buffalo. This area is highly residential with a number of medium-sized family farms. Old abandoned farm fields make up the majority of the non-residential landscape with a few small parcels of hardwood forest interspersed. There is no public access for hunting in this unit. Archery and crossbow hunters should consider requesting access to private lands as this unit receives less hunting pressure and supports a healthy deer population. These conditions, along with 9F hunters choosing to voluntarily pass on younger bucks, have helped this unit produce big deer with impressive antlers. Slightly more than 50% of all bucks taken in WMU 9F in 2017 were aged 2 ½ years old or older! Voluntary restraint this season might produce big dividends in future seasons as a bumper crop of yearlings produced from the mild winter of 2016-17 matures into adult bucks. The deer population in this unit has consistently remained above objective levels despite liberal antlerless harvest options. With a history of deer overabundance in this unit, followed by another relatively mild winter, antlerless harvest opportunities will be plentiful again this season with a 5% increase in DMPs from 2017. Resident and non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving first and second permits. With a slight increase in DMPs this season, additional permits will likely be available on a first-come-first-served basis. WMU 9G Area = 230 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 2.6 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 1.8 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 6.5 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9G includes portions of Erie and Chautauqua Counties sloping west toward Lake Erie. This unit includes a mix of suburban residential areas, large vineyards, and old farm fields mixed with hardwood and occasional conifer stands. The southern portion of 9G is primarily agricultural. Hunters in this unit will need to arrange access to private lands, as there are no public hunting areas available. As with other units within the Lake Plains ecozone, hunters who can secure permission on land containing small woodlots and vegetated drainages that act as travel corridors should have good success. The annual buck harvest in this unit remains well above its objective, though high antlerless harvests in recent years appear to be initiating the desired reduction. There will be roughly 5% more DMPs available this fall to further reduce the population toward objective and counter any rebound induced by high survival through another relatively mild winter. By taking an adult doe in place of a yearling buck this season, hunters in this unit will be doing their part to bring the population closer to its objective, while also enhancing their future hunting endeavors by allowing more yearling bucks to make it into adulthood. Based on the anticipated number of applicants, resident and non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving first and second permits. Additional permits will likely be available on a first-come-first- served basis as well. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 3
WMU 9H Area = 973 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 4.0 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 3.7 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 8.9 deer harvested per mile2 This large WMU includes sizable portions of Erie and Wyoming Counties, and also a small portion of Genesee County. While there is limited public access in this unit, it is well known for producing some of the best quality bucks in Western New York. The unit includes some residential areas, but the vast majority of the landcover is either agriculture or mature forest. Transitioning out of the Lake Plains ecozone into the Appalachian Plateau, rolling hills are the common landscape theme, with many freshwater wetlands interspersed. Locating travel corridors between agricultural fields and along the edges of wetlands and drainages should put hunters in optimal locations to spot some handsome animals. This unit receives exceptionally heavy hunting pressure, so look for secluded areas off the beaten path where few hunters tend to travel. Think outside the box, but don’t bust up a mature buck’s bedding area or you’ll likely never see him again. Visiting hunters should consider Carlton Hill Multiple Use Area (MUA). The deer population in 9H has been above its management goal for several years, but recent harvests indicate the population is moving toward its objective. To slow this trend and prevent an undesirable dip below the objective, there will be a 6% reduction in DMPs this season. Resident and non- resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. Residents will have a medium chance of receiving a second permit. There will be no second permits available to non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 4
WMU 9J Area = 694 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 3.7 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 3.5 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 8.0 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9J is situated entirely in Chautauqua County and is characterized by two distinct terrains: the rolling hills of the Cattaraugus highlands (part of the Appalachian Plateau ecozone) and the Lake Plains. These two areas are separated by a geographic feature known as the Chautauqua Ridge or the Portage Escarpment. Hunters should note that rifles are not a legal implement for big game hunting on lands north of Route 20. This unit is highly agricultural, with many large family farms and vineyards. The southwest corner of the unit contains some large freshwater wetlands. Visiting hunters should consider Watts Flats WMA or any one of the many NYSDEC state forests located within this unit. WMU 9J has fluctuated near its management objective level for the past decade, and management efforts are geared toward maintaining stability at this level. After another slight increase in the buck take last season, and with fewer adult does being harvested than desired, it’s expected that this unit will maintain itself above objective. Therefore, in an attempt to maintain stability and stem off any large increases above the management objective, there will be approximately 10% more DMPs available this fall. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving first and second permits. Non- resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to non-residents. WMU 9K Area = 446 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 4.0 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 4.0 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 7.3 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9K includes portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Mostly rural bottomland, this unit is predominantly agricultural with some large stands of hardwood forest and an occasional conifer stand. Additionally, there are several large freshwater wetland complexes within the unit. These large tracts of wetland provide bucks with the necessary cover and sanctuary to grow old. With age being one of the most critical ingredients in the “big buck recipe”, hunters who choose to pass on yearling bucks in hopes of getting a chance at one of these large “swamp bucks” will be helping themselves out in future seasons by enabling these younger bucks to put on more weight and antler. There is moderate public access within WMU 9K. Visiting hunters should consider Canadaway Creek Wildlife Management Area (WMA) or Conewango Swamp WMA. There are also a number of NYSDEC state forests located within this unit. The 9K buck harvest has been on a slow, steady increase for the past four years and has now reached its objective. There will be approximately 30% more DMPs available this fall to safeguard against rapid population increases from high survival after several years of good fawn production. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. Non-resident hunters will need preference points in order to be eligible for a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents or non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 5
WMU 9M Area = 330 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 4.3 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 5.1 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 8.4 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9M is entirely located within Cattaraugus County and is typified by rolling hills and a mix of hardwood forest and agricultural lands. Some larger conifer forests exist on the southern end of this unit. WMU 9M has relatively little public access for hunting, and visiting hunters should consider Zoar Valley Multiple Use Area or the few state forest tracts in the southern part of the unit. With the South Branch of Cattaraugus Creek running through it, and bordered by Cattaraugus Creek to the north, this unit contains many streams and drainages. These bottomlands surrounded by tracts of mixed hardwood forest and agricultural land provide valuable travel routes and bedding areas that attract deer and other species, including black bears, bobcats, etc. Look to these areas to find superior hunting grounds. Deer are plentiful in this unit, and hunters who can access these private lands should be able to locate some nice animals. Though plentiful, the population is slightly below its management objective. We will hold DMP availability at approximately the same level as last season in an attempt to encourage growth. Based on the anticipated number of applicants, resident and non- resident hunters will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents or non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 6
WMU 9N Area = 207 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 3.8 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 3.5 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 8.1 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9N includes portions of Allegany, Cattaraugus and Wyoming Counties, and contains rolling hills and large tracts of hardwood forest throughout, with the occasional wetland area. This unit is occupied by family farms and several larger agricultural operations. Numerous drainages originate within WMU 9N, including Cold Creek, Clear Creek, Elton Creek and the Wiscoy. These creek bottoms provide valuable cover and travel corridors for multiple species, because they run along agricultural fields, often providing a vegetated travel route from hardwoods to feed. These areas may prove to be the best spots to locate a roaming whitetail during the peak of the rut. With limited public access, visiting hunters should consider either Lost Nation State Forest or Swift Hill State Forest. 9N has been hovering slightly above its management objective for several years, despite increased antlerless harvests. We increased antlerless permits in 2017 by 8% in hopes of bringing the buck take down to its objective. To further encourage a downward trend, the antlerless permit quota will increase again this year by a similar amount. Based on the anticipated number of applicants, resident and non- resident hunters will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. Resident hunters will have a medium probability of receiving a second permit. There will be no second permits available to non-residents. WMU 9P Area = 582 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 4.8 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 6.0 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 7.3 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9P is situated primarily in Allegany County but includes small portions of Livingston and Steuben Counties. This large unit is very diverse. The southern reaches of the unit consist of heavily forested hills and ridges within the higher elevations of the Appalachian Plateau. Agriculture in this portion of 9P is sparse to nonexistent. As one moves north, gradients become less steep and the soil becomes more fertile, with the northernmost reaches of 9P being prime farmland with several large agricultural operations. This diversity can present challenges to deer managers as they attempt to prescribe an antlerless quota. Hunters able to gain access to lands bordering farmlands should see plenty of game. With a bounty of public land, access is a non-issue. Visiting hunters should consider Keaney Swamp WMA, Rattlesnake Hill WMA or a host of state forest properties throughout the unit. Public land is notorious for receiving a lot of hunting pressure, but with thousands of acres open to public hunting in this unit, the pressure is not as heavy as many might think. The smart hunter will look for quiet areas off the beaten path where few other hunters will, or dare to, travel. In addition, look for recent timber harvests as these areas tend to hold more deer and other game, especially as the pressure increases later in the season. The buck harvests in this unit were on a flat-lined trajectory below its rather high objective for many years. However, last season there was a substantial increase. We have maintained conservative DMP availability for over 5 years in an effort to stimulate modest growth. This year we intend to maintain a modest quota similar to past seasons to further encourage the trend upward. There will, however be an increase in the number of permits available to account for the increasing harvest. Resident applicants will need preference points to be eligible for a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 7
WMU 9R Area = 218 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 2.7 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 4.1 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 3.5 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9R is situated primarily in Cattaraugus County on the foothills of the Allegany Mountains. The eastern boundary of this unit is made up of valleys and lowlands associated with the Allegheny Reservoir. The unit is more heavily forested than areas to the north. There are several parcels of state land in WMU 9R that provide opportunities for hunting. Hunters looking for public access should consider South Valley State Forest or Bucktooth State Forest. The mature forests and lack of early successional habitat make for poor deer hunting relative to neighboring units to the north and west. Hunters that can access lands near recently logged parcels should experience the best success since lands opened up from logging create an increase in available browse and cover from thick undergrowth. Hunters pursuing black bears will have good opportunities in this unit. The deer population in 9R remains low and has struggled to gain much ground toward its rather high objective, even after reducing antlerless permits in 2015 and 2016. However, last year’s buck harvest showed an increase as desired. The recent mild and moderate winters along with decreased antlerless harvests may be paying off. After a season of limiting antlerless permits to only landowners and disabled veterans, we have increased the antlerless permit quota to a level similar to the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Based on the anticipated number of applicants, residents will need preference points to be eligible for a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 8
WMU 9S Area = 92 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 1.5 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 3.1 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 2.1 deer harvested per mile2 Recreational hunting is a primary use for Allegany State Park, which constitutes most of WMU 9S. This unit has the most public land available in Western New York, and is almost entirely forested with a good combination of hardwood and mixed forests. A few large water bodies are found within this unit, including the Allegheny Reservoir. Ample opportunities for hunting exist, but separate hunting permits must be secured from the New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation (OPRHP) for hunting within the Park. Though a separate permit is required, the process is relatively fast and easy, so do not be discouraged. The large wooded tracts and limited road access within WMU 9S are unusual for Western New York and attract hunters wanting to take a deer in a more wilderness-like environment. With adequate scouting, hunters can locate travel corridors through this heavily forested, mountainous terrain. Due to the low hunting pressure, bucks are able to grow older than in the surrounding areas. As a result, numerous exceptionally large, old bucks are harvested from this unit every year. Hunting near beaver flows or near an abandoned apple orchard (a hidden treasure) can be quite productive. Locating hard mast crops can also be very useful later in the season. While hunting these food sources, one is also very likely to encounter a bear. Unfortunately, bear hunting is not permitted within the Park. The buck take in this unit remains well below the objective level, but harvests may be as affected by hunter effort within the Park as by overall population levels. To maintain interest from hunters and provide opportunity to harvest a deer while passing up younger bucks in anticipation of an old wilderness giant, the antlerless permit quota will remain similar to last season’s, with only a slight increase to accommodate the anticipated number of applicants. Resident applicants will need preference points to be eligible for a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents. WMU 9T Area = 248 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 2.5 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 4.4 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 3.4 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9T is located in Cattaraugus County and contains a small amount of public hunting access, primarily in its northwestern portions. The unit is mainly forested, though a few small family farms are interspersed across the landscape. Hunters requiring public access should consider Golden Hill State Forest and Windfall Creek State Forest. With the Allegheny River valley running through the middle, look to bottomlands for some of the better hunting. During years of heavy acorn crops, the oak ridges can also be great producers and might also provide the opportunistic hunter with a chance at a black bear. As in neighboring units in the extreme southern tier, 9T buck harvests have remained well below the rather high objective for many years. Large reductions in antlerless permits in 2015 and 2016 did not produce the desired result. Last year, we further reduced the antlerless permit quota in hopes of sparking growth. Though last season’s buck harvest did show a modest increase, it is still too early to tell if past reductions in antlerless harvests along with mild to moderate winters have set this unit on its desired upward track. Hopefully this year we will witness another increase that will show this unit is indeed on the desired course. Resident applicants will again need preference points to be eligible for a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to non- residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 9
WMU 9W Area = 250 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 3.7 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 4.4 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 6.1 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9W includes portions of Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties and is similar in character to WMU 9N to the north. The unit is heavily forested, with a number of medium-sized farms in the northern portion. Agricultural activity decreases as one moves south through the unit, in conjunction with increasing slopes and decreasing soil fertility. WMU 9W contains several areas with public access for hunting, and visiting hunters should consider the renowned Hanging Bog WMA or Bush Hill State Forest. With the Genesee River valley to the east and the Ischua Creek to the west, bottomlands again provide this southern tier unit with its better hunting grounds. Hunters accessing property where agriculture and bottomland coincide should have the best chance of locating the heavily pressured, elusive bucks. Hunters who have chosen to pass up on younger bucks in the past should see an increase in rutting activity and intensity as a result of more adult bucks competing for available does. The buck harvests have increased for two consecutive years now. Hopefully this trend will continue as a result of past reductions in antlerless permit quotas along with mild to moderate winters. The number of permits to be issued for 2018 will be increased slightly in anticipation of this unit’s approach to its management objective. Resident applicants will have a medium probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will permits be available to non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 10
WMU 9X Area = 219 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 3.3 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 5.8 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 4.7 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9X is situated in Allegany and Cattaraugus Counties and has no public lands accessible for hunting. This unit is characterized by large forested ridges running north-south as waters drain south into Pennsylvania. The unit does, however, include a spattering of small family farms. 9X is bordered by several rivers and large creek valleys, including the Genesee and Allegheny Rivers. These bottomlands surrounded by large tracts of mixed hardwood forests attract deer and other species, including black bears, bobcats, etc., from miles around. Look to these areas to find the superior hunting grounds in this unit, especially late in the season when pressured animals head for thick cover and available food. As in neighboring units, the buck harvests in 9X have stabilized well below its rather high objective for many years. Consequently, the buck take is not expected to increase significantly during the 2018 season. Last year’s slight increase provides some hope that the population may be increasing, although the fact that the buck take did not respond to lower DMP quotas in past years may be cause for skepticism. Mild to moderate winters and reduced antlerless harvest have given this unit every opportunity to progress toward its objective. A higher buck harvest this season would indicate that the population in 9X is, in fact, responding. Resident applicants will need preference points to be eligible for a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents. WMU 9Y Area = 125 mile2 2017 Buck Take = 4.4 bucks harvested per mile2 BTO = 5.0 bucks harvested per mile2 2017 Total Deer Take = 8.0 deer harvested per mile2 WMU 9Y is a relatively small unit located in southeastern Allegany County. Mostly forested, this unit comprises round- topped hills and valley floors. Compared to its neighboring southern tier units, there is noticeably more agriculture found here, but farming is still relatively low compared to northern units within the region. There is little public access to hunting lands in this unit, so hunters requiring public access should consider either Phillips Creek State Forest or Vandermark State Forest. Be advised to heed WMU boundary descriptions, as both state forest properties span the boundary between WMUs 9P and 9Y. Buck harvests in this unit have been relatively stable but slightly below the objective level despite conservative antlerless harvests. The past few mild to moderate winters have resulted in increased fawn production and survival. Hunters who choose to pass up younger bucks will benefit in future years by allowing these bumper crops of fawns and yearlings to mature into adult bucks. This past season, 9Y experienced its first buck harvest increase in four years. Reduced antlerless permits along with the increased survival through milder winters may be paying off. Hopefully the 2018 buck harvest will produce another increase toward this unit’s objective. Therefore, to build upon this long- awaited uptick in the buck harvest, antlerless permit availability will be similar to last season’s. Based on the anticipated number of applicants, resident hunters will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will there be any permits available to non-residents. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 11
Ryan D. Rockefeller Big Game Biologist – Region 9 New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 12
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