World Car Trends 2014 - "Smart Efficiency and Digital Intelligence"
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World Car Trends 2014 “Smart Efficiency and Digital Intelligence” New York, April 2014
World Car Trends 2014
Global Expert Community Global Media Trends
69 Top Automotive Journalists TV, Print, Online News Channels
All World Car Jurors Blogs, Forums, Networks Social Channels
Top 25 markets Countries
All automotive brands [> 150] and models Brands
World Car Trends 2014 | Summary
Introduction The Electric Vehicle Recession?
The World Car Awards brings together top journalists After the hype in 2012, Electric vehicles are currently
from all over the world. PRIME Research combines the losing some momentum.
expertise of this panel with our industry-leading media Plug-in hybrids are seen as the most promising electric
study on over 150 brands across 25 markets globally. drivetrain option for 2014, however the onset of
Automotive Trends 2014 premium electric vehicles driven by the BMW i3 and
Efficiency, lightweight materials, design, connectivity and Tesla Model S bring electric vehicles back into the
new energy powertrains are the most important spotlight. Coverage around these two models accounts
automotive trends for 2014. These trends form part of a for over 40% of all media coverage on electric
bigger picture within the automotive industry, “the vehicles. Our expert community evaluates these two
efficiency cluster” which we at PRIME call “Smart models far better than first and second generation EVs.
Efficiency”. “Digital Intelligence”
“Smart Efficiency” Connectivity and in-car electronics rank as the fourth
Smart Efficiency is driven by a variety of related most important trend, with infotainment and
technologies like the downsizing of engines, while connectivity systems seen as increasingly significant.
improving power and performance, significant weight Digital intelligence is describing a major macro trend of
reduction and more stability, improved aerodynamics the years to come. Tech giants such as Apple, Google &
while increasing desirability and new energy Microsoft have now joined the game: teaming up with
powertrains; particularly plug-in hybrids. automotive brands to create the next generation of
digital cars.
Lightweight Constructions
Lightweight materials are currently in the spotlight. Once “Smart Efficiency” and “Digital Intelligence” represent key
reserved for premium cars, the Ford F150 has brought trends in the industry for 2014. Utilising these trends is
aluminium to the mass market, and the BMW i3 has the challenge for the automotive industry today and in
positioned carbon fibre as a material manageable and the near future.
suitable for premium cars.
3
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“Efficiency is the top trend in 2014
The current “efficiency cluster“ is driven by downsizing of engines, lightweight constructions, improved
aerodynamics and plug-in hybrids.
1 Efficiency
2 Lightweight Materials Top 5
3 Design Trends
4 Connectivity 2014
Plug-in Hybrids Battery Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell
5 New Energy Cars
Quality
Safety
Budget Cars
Car Sharing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
? “What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2014?” 5Lightweight is the top emerging trend in 2014
The importance of lightweight constructions and materials has been on the increase since 2012.
2012 2013 2014
Efficiency Connectivity Efficiency
Lightweight
Connectivity Efficiency
Materials
2
New Energy New Energy
Design
Cars Cars
Design Design Connectivity
Lightweight New Energy
Budget Cars
Materials 5 Cars
Safety Budget Cars Quality
Quality Quality Safety
Lightweight
Materials 8 Safety Budget Cars
Car Sharing Car Sharing Car Sharing
0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30%
? “What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?” 6Engine downsizing is seen as the most promising weight saver
Two important shifts in perception – the Ford F150 for aluminium and the BMW i3 for carbon fibre.
mixed good very good
The actual downsizing of an engine for weight
Downsizing of Engines /
reduction is seen as the most promising
Powertrains technology to save weight.
The new Ford F-150 shifts the image of aluminium
Aluminium from a rather exclusive to a more volume
material for weight-saving.
Clever material mix is seen as a very promising
Material-Mix option for weight saving.
The BMW i3 could change the perception of
carbon fibre: from an expensive and exclusive to
Carbon Fibre an affordable, mass-market material for weight-
saving.
High strength steels are still evaluated very
2014 positively, but are seen due to the already wide
High Strength Steel Expert Panel use within the industry as a kind of maxed out
option for weight saving.
0 1 2 3
? “From your point of view, what are the most promising lightweight technologies?” 7Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“Electric vehicle recession?
After the hype in 2012, electric vehicles finally arrived in ”reality“ – but electric vehicles are still among the
top 5 most important trends within the industry.
2012 2013 2014
Efficiency Connectivity Efficiency
Lightweight
Connectivity Efficiency
Materials
New Energy New Energy
Cars 3 Cars 3 Design
Design Design Connectivity
Lightweight New Energy
Budget Cars
Materials Cars
5
Safety Budget Cars Quality
Quality Quality Safety
Lightweight
Safety Budget Cars
Materials
Car Sharing Car Sharing Car Sharing
0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30%
? “What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?” 9Visibility of EVs is pushed by Tesla Model S and BMW i3
Out of more than 250 EV models in 2013-2014, the Tesla Model S and BMW i3 combined account for more
than 40% of all coverage. Almost every second electric vehicle story is about either one of them.
Media Panel | Share of coverage 2013-2014
12%
Tesla and BMW i
Emerging Trend Hype Slowdown Other EVs
game changer?
58.3%
9%
6%
5,1%
4,8% 4,8% 4,8% BMW i3 Tesla Model S
4,6% 21.3% 20.4%
2,9%
3%
100% = Total e-car coverage in 2013/2014
2,0%
42%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
100% = Total automotive media coverage in respective year 100% = Total electric vehicle coverage in 2013/2014
10PHEVs remain the most promising electric drivetrain option
However, BEV are experiencing a new momentum through premium electric vehicles.
very poor mixed very good
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles with Is the Tesla Model S a game changer? Combining
range extender zero emissions with a good range and breathtaking
sports car performance.
► New momentum through premium electric vehicles.
2013
Expert Panel
3 Battery electric vehicles
2014
Expert Panel
2013 2014
► But safety issues remain.
Fuel cell vehicles
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?” 11Tesla and BMW with outstanding EV reputation
BEV gain credit in 2014 due to i3 and Tesla Model S – Premium electric vehicles might be the game changer
in the future.
very poor mixed very good
1 Tesla Model S
Premium electric vehicles
2 BMW i3
Second generation
and
compact
electric vehicles
First Generation
and
low budget “Compromised“ electric vehicles
electric vehicles
2014
Expert Panel
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “How would you rate the following e-cars from a general perspective?” 12Norway: Tesla achieves an 11% market share in March ‘14
Exponential growth of EVs in Norway; especially the Tesla Models S due to generous government subsidiaries.
Electric vehicles registration figures in Norway
12.000
› EVs in Norway
achieved a 5.6%
10.000 market share in 2013.
› No purchase tax, no
8.000
VAT, no tolls are
making EVs very
6.000
attractive.
› Free and extra parking
4.000 areas for EVs.
› EV infrastructure.
2.000
› Clean Norwegian
0
energy production.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13Norway with pioneering character regarding E-Mobility
The former benchmark market for E-Mobility, Japan, slightly loses the confidence of the expert community
and remains on one level with Germany and the USA.
very poor mixed very good
Norway
Japan
Germany
USA The Tesla factor
› Supercharger
infrastructure
› Plans for
France battery
gigafactory
UK
Ambitious plans, limited
China momentum
› 5 million e-cars in
2013 2020
Italy Expert Panel › New joint-venture
brands arrive
2014 › Denza
Spain Expert Panel › Zinoro
? “Which markets will be the key drivers for e-mobility?” 14Fuel-Cell with chances in the long run
In the last 10 years, Honda showed the strongest ambitions of all manufacturers regarding fuel cell
technology, followed by Hyundai/Kia and Mercedes-Benz.
Fuel-Cell “Hype“ period Attention-shift to BEV Re-Focus on FCEV Comeback as “Next Generation EV“?
Most major manufacturers focus on FCEV First volume BEV appear on the Especially Hyundai/Kia continues to FCEV in series (announcements):
as battery technology is not improving fast market and the BEV hype begins. focus on FCEV and in 2014 Hyundai/Kia: 2014 | Toyota: 2015 | Honda: 2016 | Daimler: 2017
enough and the range issue as well as high Manufacturers shift their focus on announcements of affordable FCEV
costs are thought hard to be solved. battery electric vehicles rather than in series strongly increase.
continuing their FCEV strategy.
1,0%
0,8%
0,6%
0,4%
0,6%
0,6%
0,5%
0,5%
0,4% 0,2%
0,3% 0,3%
0,3%
0,1% 0,1%
100% = all automotive coverage in respective year
0,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
15Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“Connectivity is already a key factor in evaluating a car
For 71% of automotive journalists, connectivity already is or is quickly becoming a key factor in evaluating a
car.
“Yes, as it becomes a priority for young “It is becoming a key factor, because
buyers.” younger people do not care about
powertrains, maximum speed and
Increasingly emotional driving anymore.”
[42%]
Already
[29%]
Not yet
No [17%]
“No. Ease of use is, but connectivity is not
[12%]
critical. It's also very difficult to
communicate, given that average readers
just want to know if they can plug the “Not yet but is going to grow once they
phone in or not.” sort out the basics.”
? 2013 Expert Panel: “Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car?” 17In-car electronics and connectivity are increasingly important
Exponential increase of media attention to in-car electronics and connectivity.
Media Panel | Share of coverage Top Connectivity Trends
12%
In-car electronics play an increasingly Internet-based
important role within the product Infotainment
strategy. Systems
9%
Driver Assistance
6,4%
6%
3,9% Navigation
3%
1,5% 1,5%
Communication
0,2% 2013
0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2%
Expert Panel
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% 20% 40% 60%
100% = all coverage about “product strategy“ in respective year
? 2013 expert panel: What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013?” 18The “digital” car | > 100 million lines of code
Cars are no longer only hardware, they are also software products. Cars already have more lines of code
than aircrafts and operating systems like Windows 8 or Apple Tiger.
100.000.000
90.000.000
80.000.000
F35 Fighter Jet
70.000.000
60.000.000 Boeing 787
50.000.000
40.000.000 US Military Drone
30.000.000
F22 Raptor Fighter
20.000.000
Jet
10.000.000
0 Space Shuttle
Car Software and its
“lines of code”
of average modern
high-end-car 19Silicon Valley is moving in on the car industry
Google is clearly seen as the key driver for the “digital car”. Apple and Microsoft are seen as more
conservative.
passive/conservative pro-active/aggressive
“Fiat spent years betting on the wrong Microsoft horse.”
The Ford Sync system is also far away from being
benchmark:
“Ford, with its hopeless voice command system, small
2014 screens and convoluted programming if you can't get
Expert Panel the voice commands to work.”
0 1 2 3
? “Which IT companies will be the key drivers for the “digital car”?” 20Autonomous driving wins credit in 2014
Overall, safety related driver assistance systems are evaluated much more positively than comfort features.
not important at all mixed very important
Brake Assist Systems
Pre-Crash Systems
Intelligent Lights
Pedestrian Detection
Blind Spot Detection
Adaptive Cruise Control
Automated Crash Reporting
Traffic Sign Recognition
Attention Assist
2013
Nightvision Systems
Expert Panel
Lane Keeping Systems
2014
Expert Panel
Park Assist
Autonomous Driving
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?” 21Autonomous cars are expected within the next 5 years
The world car experts are anticipating autonomous cars in series production within the next five years.
5 Years
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
? “When do you expect to see fully autonomous driving cars in series production?” 22Key markets for autonomous driving are USA, Germany, Japan
Due to high costs and the need for infrastructure, autonomous driving will be strongly pushed by the most
developed car markets.
reluctant passive/conservative pro-active/aggressive
USA
USA, Germany and Japan are clearly
Germany seen as the key markets for
autonomous driving.
Japan
UK
France
China
Italy
2014
Spain Expert Panel
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “Which markets will be the key drivers for autonomous driving?” 23Challenges to autonomous driving
Legislation is seen as the biggest challenge to autonomous driving, closely followed by infrastructure and
industry standards for Car-to-Car and Car-to-X communications.
mixed important very important
Legislation (on federal & national level)
Infrastructure Investments
Industry standards for Car-to-Car
and Car-to-X communications
Consumer Acceptance
Integrity of Technology
New Business Models & Scenarios
Automotive Ecosystem (new players) 2014
Expert Panel
0 1 2 3
? “How important are the following challenges enabling autonomous driving from your point of view?” 24Safety is key to consumer acceptance of autonomous driving
However, extra costs are seen as the second most important factor to clear the way for autonomous cars.
mixed important very important
Safety is the key to consumer acceptance of autonomous
Safety / crash elimination
driving.
Extra cost
Reduced travel times
Comfort
Increased productivity City motorists in Europe and the US waste Ø 60-80 hours
(work while driving) per year in congestion.
Data protection
Improved energy efficiency
Reduced need for new
infrastructure
New models of vehicle ownership
2014
(e.g. car sharing) Expert Panel
0 1 2 3
? “How important are the following factors from your point of view regarding the consumer acceptance of autonomous driving?” 25Contact
PRIME Mainz (Germany)
PRIME Oxford (UK)
PRIME Ann Arbor (USA)
PRIME Zurich (Switzerland)
PRIME New York (USA) PRIME Shanghai (China)
PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India)
PRIME São Paulo (Brazil)
PRIME Montevideo (Uruguay)
Dr. Rainer Mathes Bernd Hitzemann Jens Meiners
PRIME Research PRIME Research World Car Awards
Chairman Project Director Director Steering Committee World Car Awards
mathes@prime-research.com hitzemann@prime-research.com jmeiners@hearst.comYou can also read
