Why I'm Short Lumber Liquidators (LL) - Whitney Tilson Kase Capital Management June 14, 2015
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Why I’m Short Lumber Liquidators (LL)
Whitney Tilson
Kase Capital Management
June 14, 2015
Kase Capital Management
Is a Registered Investment Advisor
Carnegie Hall Tower
152 West 57th Street, 46th Floor
New York, NY 10019
(212) 277-5606
info@kasecapital.com
Disclaimer
THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY AND SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED TO CONSTITUTE
INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL CONSTITUTE
A SOLICITATION, RECOMMENDATION OR ENDORSEMENT TO BUY OR
SELL ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT.
INVESTMENT FUNDS MANAGED BY WHITNEY TILSON HAVE A SHORT
POSITION IN LUMBER LIQUIDATORS. HE HAS NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN AND MAY MAKE INVESTMENT
DECISIONS THAT ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN
THIS PRESENTATION.
WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE
ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS OF THE INFORMATION,
TEXT, GRAPHICS OR OTHER ITEMS CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION.
WE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ALL LIABILITY FOR ERRORS OR OMISSIONS IN,
OR THE MISUSE OR MISINTERPRETATION OF, ANY INFORMATION
CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND
FUTURE RETURNS ARE NOT GUARANTEED.
-3-
This presentation is posted at:
www.tilsonfunds.com/LL.pdf
To read all of the articles I’ve published on Lumber
Liquidators since the 60 Minutes story aired, go to:
www.tilsonfunds.com/LLTilsonarticles.pdf
If you want to be added to my LL email list and/or have any
information, comments or questions, please email me at:
WTilson@kasecapital.com
The First Presentation
If It Seems Too Good to Be True…
Why I'm Short Lumber Liquidators (LL)
Whitney Tilson
Robin Hood Investors Conference
November 22, 2013
If you have comments on this presentation and/or information about Lumber
Liquidators, please email me at WTilson@KaseCapital.com.
The latest version of this presentation is posted at: www.tilsonfunds.com/LL.pdf
Overview of Lumber Liquidators
• Lumber Liquidators is the largest specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in
North America, with 305 locations and run-rate revenues of $1 billion
• Founded in 1994 by current Chairman Tom Sullivan
-7-
Lumber Liquidators's Stock Has Risen
More Than 7x in Less Than Two Years
Lumber Liquidators Since Its IPO
Source: BigCharts.com.
-8-
Lumber Liquidators Has Grown Rapidly in the
Past Decade, Especially in the Past Two Years
$1,000
• Revenue growth of 22% annually for Revenues
$800
nearly a decade: ($M)
•
$600
In Q3 '13, revenues, SSS, and EPS
grew 25%, 17%, and 58%, respectively $400
• In 2014, analysts project revenue $200
growth of 17% and EPS growth of 26% $0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
14%
Operating Margin
12%
• Operating margins have increased 10%
8%
from 4.9% to 13.1% in only nine 6%
quarters: 4%
2%
0%
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
$80
Net Income
$70
• Profits have skyrocketed thanks to $60
($M)
$50
strong revenue and operating margin $40
growth: $30
$20
$10
$0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -9-
LL's Operating Margin Has Risen to an
Unusually High Level, Exceeding All of Its Peers
Q3 '13 Operating Margin
14%
LL's high margins make no sense in light of
12% the commodity product and ferocious
competitive environment: LL has only 11%
10% market share, with Home Depot and Lowe's
taking 27% and independents with 62%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Stock Building Lumber Builders Beacon Roofing Tractor Supply Lowe's Home Depot Lumber
Supply Liquidators Q2 FirstSource Supply Liquidators Q3
11 13
Source: CapitalIQ.
-10-LL's Operating Margin Expansion Has Been Driven
Almost Entirely By Gross Margin Expansion
Of the 820 bps of operating margin expansion from Q2 11 to Q3 13 (4.9% to
13.1%), 780 bps of it is due to gross margins increasing from 34.0% to 41.8%
14% 43%
13% 42%
Operating
12% Margin 41%
11% 40%
10% 39%
9% 38%
8% Gross 37%
7% Margin 36%
6% 35%
5% 34%
4% 33%
Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13
Source: CapitalIQ.
-11-LL's Gross Margin Two Years Ago Was
Comparable to Home Depot's – But No Longer
Gross Margin
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Home Depot Lumber Liquidators Q2 11 Lumber Liquidators Q3 13
(estimate for wood flooring & accessories)
Source: Interview with Home Depot store manager, who said wood flooring and accessories had 24% and 72% gross margins, respectively.
Applying LL's percentages (18.5% moldings and accessories), the comparable blended average for Home Depot is 32.8%. -12-How Has Gross Margin Risen?
• On the Q3 13 conference call, LL CFO Daniel Terrell said: "Our third
quarter average sale was $1,745, up [7.1%] from $1,630 in 2012 due to
an increase in average retail price per unit sold, which benefited from a
net increase in the sales mix of premium flooring products, a 180 basis
point increase in the sales mix of moldings and accessories [from 16.7%
to 18.5%] and stronger retail price discipline at the point of sale."
• Later, he added: "Our gross margin over the past two years has benefited
from a portfolio of initiatives working individually and in combination to
deliver cumulative multiyear benefit…We aggregate gross margin drivers
in three primary categories, all of which contributed to third quarter
expansion. The product margin drove 300 basis points due to shifts in our
sales mix, including an increase in moldings and accessories, lower cost
of product due to sourcing initiatives and higher like kind ASP, not due to
retail price increases, but a result of greater retail price discipline at the
point-of-sale." (emphasis added)
• I believe that a substantial fraction of LL's gross (and operating) margin
expansion is due simply to buying the same products for less.
-13-Reduced Product Cost Accounts for Nearly
All of LL's Gross Margin Expansion
Source: Company presentation, 8/14/13.
-14-Another Explanation for Why LL's
Margins Have Skyrocketed
• Robert Lynch became President of LL in January 2011 and then CEO a year later.
Many attribute the company's improved performance, especially margin increases,
to his leadership, but I think another event two years ago also played a critical role
• In late 2011, LL paid $8 million to acquire Sequoia, which is based in Shanghai, for
its "quality control and assurance, product development, claims management and
logistics operations in China. We believe our cost of product was reduced, primarily
in 2012, due to both the net cost reduction of owning those services and the
benefits of working directly with the mills." – LL 2012 AR
• Since this acquisition, the percentage of product sourced in Asia has risen from
42% to 51% and margins have skyrocketed:
55% 14%
Percent of Product Sourced in Asia 12%
Operating Margin
50% 10%
8%
45% 6%
4% LL acquires
40%
2% Sequoia
0%
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
35%
2011 2012 Q1-Q3 '13
How could a tiny $8 million acquisition have such a big impact??? It's not like
directly sourcing wood from mills in China is some great secret, unavailable to
Home Depot, Lowe's and others…
Source: Company filings.
-15-I Believe That a Meaningful Portion of LL's
Margin Expansion Is Due to Buying Illegal Wood
• On October 9th, the Environmental Investigation Agency,
a London-based nonprofit that conducts "undercover
investigations, including audio and video recordings, to
expose environmental crime", released a 64-page report,
Liquidating the Forests: Hardwood Flooring, Organized
Crime, and the World's Last Siberian Tigers (http://eia-
global.org/news-media/liquidating-the-forests), which
"details the organized crime of illegal timber harvesting in
Eastern Russia, and tracks the wood across the border
into China, through factories and warehouses, to its
ultimate destination in showrooms around the world."
• "During a multiyear investigation by the EIA, Lumber Liquidators, the largest
specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in the United States, emerged as the
strongest example of a U.S. company whose indiscriminate sourcing
practices link U.S. customers to the destruction of critically endangered tiger
habitat and forests in the RFE [Russian Far East]. While making record
profits in recent years, Lumber Liquidators has turned a blind eye as its
purchases have fueled rampant illegal logging in the region."
-16-A
Is the EIA Report Correct – And If So, So
What?
• The EIA report is meticulously researched and documented – it's an
extremely impressive piece of investigative work
• The story is consistent with everything we know about Russia and China:
the Wild West of capitalism, widespread corruption, little rule of law or
concern for environmental issues, etc.
• Both EIA's evidence and common sense indicate that the EIA report is
directionally correct – but the devil is in the details: how widespread is the
illegal logging in Russia, how many mills in China are trafficking in illegal
wood, and how compromised is LL's supply chain?
• My best guess is that this is a big problem, not a small one
• But even if I'm right, so what? Lots of companies are doing lots of even
more nefarious things and regulators/authorities do nothing
• What's the catalyst?
-18-Federal Authorities Raided LL's
Headquarters Two Months Ago
• On September 26th, agents from the Department of Homeland Security's
Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service raided LL's headquarters, executing sealed search warrants
"which relate to the importation of certain of the Company's wood flooring
products"
• LL hasn't revealed any further information other than to say: "We are
continuing to cooperate fully with the authorities to provide them with the
requested information and there is no update or additional information
pertaining to the request that we can provide at this time." (Q3 '13
conference call, 10/23/13)
• Normally a stock falls sharply and stays depressed with news like this –
but in this environment (and in light of LL's blowout Q3 earnings), the
stock is near its all-time high
-19-The Lacey Act
• The Lacey Act of 1900 prohibits trade in wildlife, fish, and plants that have
been illegally taken, transported or sold
• It was amended in 2008 to include anti-illegal-logging provisions
• It carries criminal penalties of up to $500,000 per violation
• The most relevant prior use was against Gibson Guitar, which the United
States Fish and Wildlife Service raided in 2009, accusing the company of
illegally importing hardwoods from Madagascar
• The case was settled on August 6, 2012, with Gibson admitting to
violating the Lacey Act and agreeing to pay a fine of $300,000 in addition
to a $50,000 community payment
-20-How I Think It Will Play Out
• I do not think federal authorities are likely to impose a meaningful fine
• I think LL will successfully claim that it didn't know it was buying illegal
wood (unless company executives were very indiscrete in their emails
and documents)
• Like Gibson Guitar (see appendix), LL will probably pay a small fine a
year or two from now
• BUT – this is key – LL will have to ensure that it is no longer buying illegal
wood
• While the largest mill supplying LL only accounts for 4% of LL's hardwood
purchases, I think it is likely that a meaningful percentage of the 51% of
LL's wood sourced in Asia is from Chinese mills that are trafficking in
illegal wood
• Thus, the raid by federal authorities – even before any resolution is
announced – is likely to disrupt LL's supply chain and materially impact
margins
-21-Lumber Liquidators's Stock Is Priced for
Perfection
• Stock price (11/21/13 close): $115.36
• Market cap: $3.2 billion
• Cash: $84 million
• Debt: $0
• Enterprise value: $3.1 billion
• TTM EPS: $2.53
• 2014 est. EPS: $3.47
• P/E (trailing): 46x
• P/E (2014 est.): 33x
• EV/EBITDA (trailing): 24x
• TTM revenues: $954 million
• P/S (trailing): 3.4x
Any disruption to Lumber Liquidators's supply chain and/or margins could
result in the stock being cut in half.
-22-My Two-Year Price Target Is $53
• Sales in 2015: $1.35 billion (16% annual increase in 2014 and 2015)
• Operating margin: 9% (give back half of the 830 basis point increase in
the last nine quarters and go to 9%, still far above LL's long-term
average)
• Tax rate: 39%
• Diluted shares outstanding: 28 million
• Equals EPS of $2.65
• P/E multiple of 20 (generous if earnings are flat for two years and
margins contract)
• Equals share price of $53
-23-Summary: There Are Many Ways to Win
• The valuation is very high – far above historical and peer averages
• Operating margin is at an all-time high, roughly double the historical
average
• The raid by federal authorities could impact the company in many ways:
• LL might have to change many of its suppliers, which could raise product costs
and disrupt its supply chain
• It could suck up significant time and attention of management
• Legal/compliance costs might be large, both up front and ongoing
• LL might get hit with a big financial penalty and/or other actions such as
charges against management
• The EIA report might get picked up by the media and/or social networking,
which could impact sales and put additional pressure on the company
• LL may have a formaldehyde problem, which could gain traction thanks to
a class action lawsuit that was just filed
• A major new direct competitor, Floor & Decor, has emerged and is growing
rapidly
• Customer dissatisfaction appears to be extremely high, which could impact
future growth
-24-Appendix
A Formaldehyde Problem?
• A short seller bought three samples of flooring LL imported from China,
had them tested for formaldehyde, and discovered that one was tainted
with dangerous levels of formaldehyde:
– "I recently conducted independent lab testing -- engaging Berkeley Analytical,
an IAS accredited testing laboratory -- on a sample of Lumber Liquidators
house brand flooring ("Mayflower" brand), and the results that came back
weren't pretty: Over 3.5x the maximum legal level for formaldehyde. (This
product was purchased retail from a Southern California retail store.) Fully
understanding the importance of this finding, we submitted samples from the
same package to a second laboratory, this one the "gold standard" lab for the
National Wood Flooring Association, NTA. This second lab confirms the
product is in violation of the legal limit for formaldehyde."
• By itself, this proves nothing – but tainted products from China are so
common that I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a big problem
for LL
• For more, see two articles by Xuhua Zhou: Illegal Products Could Spell Big Trouble At Lumber
Liquidators (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1513142-illegal-products-could-spell-big-trouble-at-
lumber-liquidators) (6/20/13) and Lumber Liquidators – Management's Silence And Broker's
Rebuttal May Validate The Worst Fear, (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1517322-lumber-
liquidators-managements-silence-and-brokers-rebuttal-may-validate-the-worst-fear) (6/24/13)
-26-A Formaldehyde Scare in China
• "A&W, Anxin Weiguang Flooring, was a leading hardwood flooring company in
China until February of 2012 when a consumer advocate broke the news on the
Internet that A&W branded engineered hardwood flooring products do not meet
regulatory formaldehyde emission standards. For investors who are unfamiliar with
formaldehyde, it is listed as a known carcinogen in June of 2011 by the National
Toxicology Program. In addition to being a known human carcinogen,
formaldehyde is also shown to cause childhood asthma and female reproductive
issues. A&W is a major Chinese flooring company counting Carlyle as one of its
investors. Media nicknamed the issue "toxic flooring gate" and drew an incredible
amount of attention from consumers. Among the allegations, the advocate detailed
A&W branded engineered hardwood flooring products used in certain
condominiums developments significantly exceed the regulatory limits and such
flooring products were sourced directly from A&W. The issue turned into a major
controversy forcing China Vanke, the largest residential real estate developer in
China, to re-test all the flooring products sourced from A&W. After comprehensive
testing of the flooring products in question, Vanke identified at least one of its
developments where the formaldehyde emission level of the flooring products was
noncompliant. The incident caused significant public concerns and subsequently,
A&W experienced a drastic sales slump and almost went bankrupt as a result of
the incident."
Source: Illegal Products Could Spell Big Trouble At Lumber Liquidators, Xuhua Zhou, Seeking Alpha, 6/20/13.
-27-The Second Presentation
Why I'm Short Lumber Liquidators (LL)
Whitney Tilson
Robin Hood Investors Conference
October 21, 2014Lumber Liquidators' Stock Has Been Cut in Half Since
I Presented It at Last Year's Robin Hood Conference
Despite its decline, however, I have recently added materially to my
position in Lumber Liquidators and it is now my largest short position.
My presentation
Source: BigCharts.com.
-30-Same Store Sales Have Plunged in the
Last Two Quarters
Same Store Sales
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Source: BigCharts.com.
-31-After Three Years of Spectacular and Somewhat
Inexplicable Increases, Margins Are Reversing
14% 43%
13% 42%
Operating
12% Margin 41%
11% 40%
10% 39%
9% 38%
8% 37%
7% Gross 36%
6% Margin 35%
5% 34%
4% 33%
Q2 11Q3 11Q4 11Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 12Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 13Q1 14Q2 14
Source: CapitalIQ.
-32-Why I've Increased My Short Position at
Current Prices
• The business fundamentals are weakening and the stock is expensive at
11.2x EV/EBITDA and 21.3x trailing earnings
• More importantly, however, I now believe that my investment thesis a
year ago – that Lumber Liquidators almost certain was (any may still be)
sourcing illegally harvested Siberian hardwoods from Chinese mills – is
only the tip of the iceberg
I believe that Lumber Liquidators is trafficking in tainted wood to a much
greater degree than just hardwoods – and I think I will soon be able to prove
this, so stay tuned
-33-Current Thoughts on Lumber Liquidators
Despite the Stock's Collapse, Lumber
Liquidators Remains My Largest Short Position
• The stock isn't cheap: at $21.49, it's still trading at 14.4x analysts'
estimates for 2016 of $1.49
• I see nothing but bad news emerging for the company over the short-,
intermediate- and long-term horizons.
• I think regulators (most likely the California Air Resources Board and the
Consumer Product Safety Commission) will announce that their tests of
Lumber Liquidators' Chinese-made laminate show the same (very high)
levels of formaldehyde shown by the tests 60 Minutes, myself and others
commissioned.
• At that point, I expect regulators to take strong action against the
company, including fines/penalties, requiring proper testing, and
remediation steps.
• I think that the legal liabilities will be enormous, especially once hard
evidence emerges that the company was knowingly poisoning its own
customers.
– I see the largest legal exposure in two areas: a) damages to customers who
suffered adverse health effects and b) damages to investors who bought the
stock at inflated prices based on information (the true source of margin and
profit expansion) that management knew was false. -35-The 60 Minutes Story Aired on March 1st
• On March 1st, 60 Minutes, the longest running, most respected
investigative news program in the U.S., aired a devastating
story about how Lumber Liquidators' Chinese-made laminate
has dangerous levels of formaldehyde
• The most devastating part of the 60 Minutes story was hidden
camera footage from the Chinese laminate mills, where
employees confessed that the laminate being manufactured for
LL was not CARB2 compliant
-36-A Four-Minute Excerpt from the
60 Minutes Segment
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations
-37-Lumber Liquidators' Stock Has Collapsed
Since the 60 Minutes Story Aired
LL discloses upcoming
60 Minutes story
60 Minutes story airs
Source: BigCharts.com.
-38-I Think It's 90%+ Likely That Senior Managers of
Lumber Liquidators Knew That the Company Was
Sourcing Non-CARB-Compliant Laminate
• Was Lumber Liquidators duped by its Chinese suppliers – in which case, the
senior managers are guilty of nothing more than being sloppy, naïve and/or overly
trusting – or did they knowingly source toxic laminate and poison their customers
to save ~10% on their sourcing costs?
• If the latter proves to be the case, it would be devastating to the company in the
courtroom, amongst regulators, and in the court of public opinion – so much so, in
fact, that I believe the fate of the company (and the stock) will be largely
determined by this issue. It would also indicate that the senior managers are truly
evil and are engaging in a massive cover-up to hide their behavior.
• I think it's 90%+ likely that they knew for the nine reasons outlined on the next six
pages.
• However, I cannot prove my hypothesis. To date, no damning emails, documents
or whistle-blowers have emerged, nor have any Chinese suppliers ratted them out.
But I'm not surprised by this – these things take time, and it's been less than three
months since the 60 Minutes story aired.
• I'm confident that the truth will eventually be discovered by the many regulators,
lawyers, reporters and short sellers who are carefully scrutinizing the company.
-39-Nine Reasons Why I Think They Knew (1)
1. Two anonymous tips
– "I must start by saying that you have become something of a hero here. For
years, all us mom-and-pop indy flooring retailers suspected something was
awry at Lumber Liquidators. You have brought this to light. THANK YOU.
There is a good chance in the next week or so I will be in possession of the
smoking gun you seek on proving various knowledge by Lumber's
management."
– "I would put myself in the top 5 or 10 people who knew what was going on. I
have some fairly damning information that they did it to save a buck, and they
knew about it. I also know someone else involved."
2. A long-time installer for Lumber Liquidators told me that when he
complained to the company about the high failure rate of their bamboo
flooring, a senior executive told him it was occurring because they
switched to an inferior water-based resin because the prior bamboo
flooring had high levels of formaldehyde (due to a formaldehyde-based
resin).
-40-Nine Reasons Why I Think They Knew (2)
3. Lumber Liquidators' behavior
– Since the 60 Minutes story broke, the company has, in my opinion, acted
exactly as I'd expect a guilty company, not an honest and reputable one,
which would have immediately taken the following steps:
• Stop selling the product in question (even if it doubted the validity of the testing 60 Minutes did,
why take any chances with customers' health and the company's reputation, not to mention future
liabilities?).
• Offer a full refund to any customers who wanted to return unopened product.
• Set up a Special Committee of the board, made up of independent directors, to conduct a full
investigation.
• Hire an independent firm to do a wide range of testing, not just of Chinese-made laminate, but all
of the company's products.
• Offer to send a trained specialist with sophisticated equipment to do proper testing in customers'
homes.
• Rather than waiting for inbound calls and complaints, send a letter to every customer who had
purchased the product in question in the past, say, five years, informing them that the product may
be emitting dangerous levels of formaldehyde and offering a proper test.
• For any customers with a reading above 0.016 parts per million (16 ppb), the standard set by both
FEMA and NIOSH (I'm being generous – 7 ppb is the limit set by the California Office of
Environmental Health Hazard Assessment), offer to pay all costs for them, if they wish, to
temporarily move out of their home until the flooring can be removed and replaced with safe
flooring (even if the customer chooses carpeting or wood flooring bought from another company).
Also, for these customers, offer to pay all medical bills for anyone in the home suffering symptoms
consistent with formaldehyde exposure.
-41-Nine Reasons Why I Think They Knew (3)
4. The sudden and unexpected resignation last week of CEO Robert Lynch
and the departure a month ago of CFO Dan Terrell
– People with nothing to hide tend not to suddenly quit (or get fired from) their
jobs when under scrutiny.
5. Industry scuttlebutt
– Pretty much everyone I've talked to tells me that LL is a notorious bad actor:
cutting corners at every opportunity, selling very low-quality products, treating
customers, vendors, installers and employees badly, and, most damningly, not
being serious about compliance.
6. Knowledge of the industry, the product, and China
– Laminate is a low-end, global commodity product in which 1% or 2% differences
in pricing are meaningful. Thus, a savvy player like LL, which has been buying
in China for roughly two decades, would instantly know that if they were buying
10% below the standard price for a particular type of laminate that something
was wrong: perhaps it was stolen, used illegal or inferior materials, was of
exceptionally low quality, or was filled with toxic chemicals.
– This is especially true given that China is the wild west when it comes to
environmental standards and rule of law.
– You can't hit the low bid in China and expect to get high-quality, compliant
product. -42-Nine Reasons Why I Think They Knew (4)
7. Knowledge of the Chinese mills
– The Chinese mills openly sell non-CARB-compliant laminate – just ask them
for a price quote. This isn't surprising, as they sell to customers all over the
world and many countries don't have formaldehyde standards.
– It's simple: the Chinese mills will produce whatever the customer orders and
package it however the customer wishes, even if it says the laminate is
CARB-compliant when it's not. Heck, they'll even provide phony
documentation to that effect! This is all part of the customer service package
many Chinese mills are happy to provide – especially to a very big customer
like Lumber Liquidators.
8. A lie-detection analysis
– The ex-CIA guys at Qverity, authors of Spy the Lie, did a careful analysis of
what Lumber Liquidator' founder and Chairman, Tom Sullivan, did and didn't
say when he was interviewed by Anderson Cooper in the 60 Minutes story,
and they have posted a damning report that concludes:
QVerity's behavioral analysis of the interview concluded that Sullivan was likely aware
that his company was selling flooring that was non-compliant with these regulations,
and that he appeared to be withholding information, the disclosure of which could
result in serious negative consequences for himself and his company.
We have drawn that conclusion on the basis of the high volume and the specific types
of deceptive behaviors exhibited by Sullivan during the course of the interview.
-43-Nine Reasons Why I Think They Knew (5)
9. Ray Cotton
– No company serious about compliance would hire (and twice promote)
someone like Ray Cotton to be Senior Vice President, Chief Compliance and
Sustainability Officer.
– He's totally unqualified for the job: his LinkedIn profile reveals a college
degree from an online, for-profit school followed by plenty of job hopping (10
jobs at seven employers from October 2000 to the present), every one of
which was related to either "security" or "loss prevention".
– He appears to have no prior experience whatsoever related to his most
important areas of responsibility at Lumber Liquidators: quality control,
sourcing, managing suppliers in China, overseeing the testing program, etc.
– In summary, Ray Cotton is exactly the person I think a company would hire if
it was knowingly sourcing tainted product and didn't want the head of
compliance to know about it (though I suspect he knew).
– PS: I hear he's one of Lynch's guys, so he'll likely be following him out the
door very shortly.
-44-Nine Reasons Why I Think They Knew (6)
9. More on Ray Cotton
– He doesn't appear to be a serious person, as evidenced by his personal home page and
Twitter feed, which border on comical and bizarre
• He's taken both down since I started writing about them, but I saved screenshots.
– He was tweeting from the Oscars on the morning of Wednesday, February 25th at the
very moment that LL was reporting: a) terrible earnings; b) the Department of Justice
might be bringing criminal charges against it for violations of the Lacey Act (for buying
and importing hardwoods illegally harvested in Siberia); and c) 60 Minutes was running a
negative story a few days later – all of which crushed the stock 26% that day.
Ray Cotton's Personal Home Page Ray Cotton's Tweets from the Oscars, 2/24/15
-45-Why Did They Do It?
• Why would they do something so immoral and potentially destructive?
The oldest reason in the universe: greed.
• Prior to the 60 Minutes story, Chinese-made laminate, one of the
company's most profitable product lines, accounted for 14% of Lumber
Liquidators' sales and this was.
• Non-CARB-compliant laminate is ~10% cheaper, so the company saved
a lot of money on sourcing costs, not a few pennies, as founder,
Chairman and new CEO Tom Sullivan claims.
• This was a meaningful contributor to a quick doubling of margins, which
in turn helped send the stock price up eight times from $15 to $119 in
less than two years.
• Sullivan and Lynch recognized a golden opportunity when they saw it,
dumping $37 million worth of stock at prices more than triple today's level
in early- to mid- 2013 (Sullivan: $26.7 million; Lynch: $10.6 million).
-46-Formaldehyde Causes Numerous Adverse
Health Effects
• The National Cancer Institute and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
say that formaldehyde can cause "watery eyes; burning sensations in the eyes,
nose, and throat; coughing; wheezing; nausea; and skin irritation," "upper
respiratory tract irritation (that) can potentially exacerbate asthma symptoms and
other respiratory illnesses," "chronic runny nose, chronic bronchitis, and
obstructive lung disease," and is a "known human carcinogen" associated with
"several cancers, including nasopharyngeal cancer and leukemia."
• This chart, in a report by the Consumer Product Safety Commission, summarizes
it nicely:
-47-It's Easy to Find LL Customers Suffering Symptoms
Consistent With Formaldehyde Exposure (1)
• I just wanted to thank you for your work on Lumber Liquidators. My wife and I put
the St James Vintners Reserve (a Chinese-made laminate) in our house back in
May 2013. We have a 7-month-old who had basically been sick his whole life with
all the symptoms caused by formaldehyde poisoning (asthma, rashes, upper resp.
infections, daily breathing treatments, constant wheezing) and we (including the
pediatricians, who were trying everything) for the longest time could not figure out
what was wrong with him until we saw the airing of 60 Minutes. We got our things
and got out of our house while we could figure out what steps to do next. During the
time out of the house (little over a month) my son started almost immediately doing
better as did my wife, me and our little girl.
• …our dogs have developed allergies and my youngest daughter who will be 4 in
August has been running fever like an off and on switch every few weeks she runs a
high fever for a couple of days then she's OK until the next episode. I'm not sure if
this has to do with the flooring. I'm almost speechless on one hand I want to rip the
floor out on the other we don't have the money to put flooring back in...So at this
point I'm not sure what to do.
• I had head and chest congestion the whole time we were installing the floor. My
friends teased me that maybe I was allergic to the floor. I was at the doctors so
many times that he sent me to an allergist. Severe symptoms subsided when we
finished putting down the floor. But I still use an inhaler when I exercise.
Source: Email to me; Classaction.org blog
-48-It's Easy to Find LL Customers Suffering Symptoms
Consistent With Formaldehyde Exposure (2)
• My symptoms are burning eyes and nose and coughing up phlem at night. Also
have itchy skin. My two dogs also cough. I thought they had kennel cough, but now
think it is the flooring… Open your windows and air the place out frequently,
especially before bed. Then pray this gets settled soon as I read that the off
gassing can last 10 years.
• I was doing some reading of scientific papers on this formaldehyde effects,
wondering two things. 1. Could my tremors that I have had for the past few month
be related to this? Sadly, yes. It also cause neurological damage. 2. How long does
outgasing go on with a product like laminate flooring. Bad news again. It was
estimated to be in the 10 year range.
• …we have had boughts of sore throays, burning eyes and my son and I always
have stuffy, runny noses.
• …the itching was so sever I literally had scratches all over my body – it was
insane…
• …my husband…has had MAJOR skin issues…
• …our children and dogs and I have had multiple issues…
• My husband has had major skin issues since installation (he installed it).
• We both have runny noses and burning eyes.
Source: Classaction.org blog
-49-Formaldehyde Isn't Asbestos, However
• The levels of formaldehyde Lumber Liquidators' customers are being
exposed to are likely causing a range of adverse health effects, some
even debilitating and requiring medical attention, with possible long-
lasting effects.
• There are three mitigating factors, however:
a) Formaldehyde, at the levels and length of exposure at issue here, is unlikely
to cause cancer;
b) The most common symptoms can be caused by many things, not just
formaldehyde, so in court the company will surely claim other causes for its
customers' ailments; and
c) Formaldehyde dissipates ("off-gasses") in 3-10 months.
• For these three reasons, Lumber Liquidators' problem, while serious, isn't as
serious as asbestos because:
a) Exposure to asbestos can cause a much more serious illness:
mesothelioma, an often-deadly form of cancer;
b) Asbestos exposure is pretty much the only way to get mesothelioma; and,
c) Asbestos doesn't off-gas in the environment, nor does it dissipate in the
body.
-50-But This Doesn't Mean Lumber Liquidators
Is Off the Hook
• The fact that formaldehyde isn't as serious as asbestos is great news for
Lumber Liquidators and its customers and installers, but it doesn't mean
the company is off the hook.
• Many, many people – perhaps tens of thousands, maybe more – have
likely been harmed and suffered adverse health effects, ranging from
unpleasant to debilitating.
• But in one critical way, things may be much worse for Lumber Liquidators
than for the companies associated with asbestos:
– Asbestos wasn't known to be a dangerous product when most of these
companies were mining, using and/or installing it, so they could honestly claim
that they had no idea they were endangering their employees and customers.
– In contrast, I think it's highly likely that the senior managers of Lumber
Liquidators knew that they were buying toxic, formaldehyde-drenched, non-
CARB compliant laminate from their Chinese suppliers, knowingly putting
untold numbers of American families at risk.
-51-Lumber Liquidators' Defense – MDF Cores
Are Compliant (1)
• As part of its first web site responding to the crisis (since removed), LL
showed this chart of test results of the MDF cores it claims were used to
make its laminate flooring:
-52-Lumber Liquidators' Defense – MDF Cores
Are Compliant (2)
• Based on my conversations with a number of experts, it's not possible for
formaldehyde levels of the finished product that 60 Minutes, Drury and I all
independently tested to be as high as they were – 6-7 times CARB2 limits – if the
MDF cores had low levels of formaldehyde.
• Thus, either the test results are bogus or, more likely, the MDF tested (and shown
to be compliant) wasn’t what was used to produce the laminate LL bought.
• It would be very easy for the Chinese laminate mills to cheat. They produce both
CARB-compliant and non-CARB-compliant laminate, depending on customers’
wishes, so they could simply produce the latter for Lumber Liquidators (using
cheap, non-CARB-compliant MDF), while providing the company with the
documentation it desired showing CARB2 compliance.
• The mills may also be using corrupt and/or conflicted inspectors. An industry insider
with first-hand knowledge of many mills that Lumber Liquidators buys from told me:
"What even LL does not know is their own QC (quality control) inspector is paid a
commission by the factories. This inspector knows there's no way to make CARB2-
compliant product at the prices LL demands, especially after he takes his cut of the
price."
• I have no way to verify this statement, but: a) I believe the person is credible; and
b) It's consistent with what I know about China – namely, that creating phony
documents is very common.
-53-Lumber Liquidators' Defense – Its Finished
Product Is Compliant (1)
• LL also showed this chart of test results of the finished product:
-54-Lumber Liquidators' Defense – Its Finished
Product Is Compliant (2)
• The problem with this test is that Lumber Liquidators didn't “deconstruct”
the finished product (i.e., sand off the veneer/outer layer).
• The formaldehyde is in the MDF and resins used to make the laminate,
so it’s mostly sealed in by the veneer.
• Thus, testing how much formaldehyde is emitted by the laminate sample
without deconstruction (especially when the sides and back of the sample
are sealed) will of course show minimal levels of formaldehyde.
• CARB was aware of this when developing its testing methodologies and
standards. It set a standard based on the formaldehyde in the MDF, so
naturally it requires deconstruction prior to testing finished product.
• Lumber Liquidators says: "60 Minutes used a 'deconstructive test,' which
would be like testing the emissions of a car by removing the catalytic
converter and muffler."
• This is a spurious analogy. A correct one would be if the emissions
standard for cars was set by regulators based on a test in which the
catalytic converter and muffler were removed, and then a company
rigged the test by not removing them – and then (falsely) reported that its
cars met the standard.
-55-More on Deconstruction (1)
• Lumber Liquidators says that "CARB has indicated to us that no one in
the industry is required to conduct deconstructive testing for compliance
purposes."
• This is a typical statement from Lumber Liquidators: true but highly
misleading and disingenuous.
• It's true that CARB does not require testing finished products – only the
MDF core prior to being processed into laminate.
• But many companies that sell laminate (including Lumber Liquidators), to
their credit, test the finished product for the logical reason that, especially
when you're dealing with Chinese manufacturers, it's important to trust
but verify.
• However, if testing of finished product is done, CARB clearly specifies
that it must first be deconstructed.
-56-More on Deconstruction (2)
• While plenty of people and companies (including, of course, Lumber
Liquidators) question whether this is the right way to do the testing,
there's no question that CARB requires it – it's under the frequently asked
questions section of its web site (emphasis added):
42. How will CARB test pre-assembled case goods made of composite wood
products (e.g., a small table) that are painted, with no edges unsealed?
CARB will purchase case goods, deconstruct them, remove the paint, and
test the exposed composite wood product surface using our enforcement test
method. CARB staff has developed the sample preparation protocol to be
followed to remove the layer of paint or laminate, and then will determine if the
composite wood product in the case good complies with applicable standards
or not.
• Contrary to Lumber Liquidators' claims, deconstruction isn't a new or
unproven test method. Rather, it was developed over several years, with
industry consultation and peer review, and was finally published in 2013.
-57-More on Deconstruction (3)
• CARB's Final Statement of Reasons (FSOR) on page 42 states:
Agency Response [24-Landry-070423-CWIC]: Yes it is correct that finished
products must be deconstructed to test for compliance. But, we disagree that there
is great uncertainty in the enforcement program. Deconstructive testing is needed
for finished goods to verify compliance with the emission standards.
• And on page 231 states:
Agency Response [20.4-Bradway-080215-Mannington]: …To determine if
compliant materials are being used to make finished goods, we must deconstruct
the finished good and test its component parts...
• To summarize, the regulation and the official legislative history make clear
that finished composite wood products should be tested through
deconstructive testing and that CARB would be developing a sample
preparation method for such testing. That method is the SOP (Standard
Operating Procedures), an official CARB agency guidance document that is
consistent with the regulation and therefore has the force of law and is
entitled to deference. Lumber Liquidators' argument that the SOP is to be
ignored makes no sense and ignores black-letter legal principles. Instead,
the SOP is an official CARB agency document entitled to great deference.
-58-More on Deconstruction (4)
• Kip Howlett, the President of HPVA, which operates HPVA Laboratories,
a CARB-certified lab that I hired to test samples of Lumber Liquidators'
products, said:
“CARB has an SOP (Standard Operating Procedures) where you take the
surface layer off to test the formaldehyde level in the core. So when you have
five labs follow the SOP and remove the surface layer – and all show levels of
formaldehyde higher than the CARB2 standard, you have a problem. And
when it's 1,000% higher, you have a big problem!
When you have five labs all doing it the same way and getting the same
results, it isn't about the test method. The company either didn't understand
the SOP, or did understand it and did a work-around. They're either stupid or
they're lying – which is it?
Another problem they have is that if you stamp the box “CARB2 compliant”,
you had damn well better be CARB2 compliant.
It's telling that the American-made laminate was all compliant, but every
sample from China wasn't. The Chinese producers are completely and totally
unfairly competing with American and Canadian companies who abide by the
law and produce safe laminate.”
-59-Another Type of Test: “Exposure Scenario”
• Rather than testing samples in a lab, what most people really care about
is how much formaldehyde people are actually exposed to.
• To measure this, one must use an “exposure scenario” test, which follows
rigorous protocols established by the California Department of Public
Health (CDPH), including making assumptions that are widely accepted
and scientifically based regarding various factors such as the
temperature, humidity and air circulation in the home.
• This "exposure scenario" test is what the Consumer Product Safety
Commission is doing.
• Lumber Liquidators claims that its tests "measure a product according to
how it is actually used by consumers,“ which at first glance might lead
one to conclude that it’s done exposure scenario tests, but in fact it hasn’t
(or at least hasn’t disclosed this). Rather, this is the company’s way of
saying it doesn’t deconstruct its samples prior to doing chamber tests.
-60-Dr. Philip Landrigan's Comments on the
Exposure Scenario Test Results
• 60 Minutes commissioned three exposure scenario tests of samples of
Lumber Liquidators’ Chinese-made laminate, which showed formaldehyde
levels of 57, 93 and 268 ppb.
• 60 Minutes showed these test results to Dr. Philip Landrigan, one of the
world's leading experts on formaldehyde and exposure to toxic chemicals,
and here's what he said:
Dr. Philip Landrigan: It's not a safe level, it's a level that the US EPA calls
polluted indoor conditions.
Anderson Cooper: Would you want that in your home?
Dr. Philip Landrigan: No.
Dr. Philip Landrigan of N.Y.'s Mt. Sinai Hospital, specializes in environmental
pediatrics and exposure to toxic chemicals. He's talking about the results of
another kind of test Drury and Larson conducted measuring the concentration of
formaldehyde emissions coming off the laminates into the air of a typical home.
Dr. Philip Landrigan: I would say long-term exposure at that level would be risky
because it would increase the risk for chronic respiratory irritation, change in a
person's lung function, increased risk of asthma. It's not going to produce
symptoms in everyone but children will be the people most likely to show
symptoms at that sort of level. -61-There Are Many Sources of Formaldehyde
• According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), "Everyone is
exposed to small amounts of formaldehyde in the air" because
formaldehyde is found in:
– Resins used in the manufacture of composite wood products (i.e., hardwood plywood,
particleboard and medium-density fiberboard)
– Building materials and insulation
– Household products such as glues, permanent press fabrics, paints and coatings,
lacquers and finishes, and paper products
– Preservatives used in some medicines, cosmetics and other consumer products such as
dish washing liquids and fabric softeners
– Fertilizers and pesticides
• It is a byproduct of combustion and certain other natural processes, and
so is also found in:
– Emissions from un-vented, fuel burning appliances, like gas stoves or kerosene space
heaters
– Cigarette smoke
• The primary way you can be exposed to formaldehyde is by breathing air
containing off-gassed formaldehyde. Everyone is exposed to small
amounts of formaldehyde in the air that has off-gassed from products,
including composite wood products.
-62-So Why Worry About the Formaldehyde in
Lumber Liquidators' Flooring?
• I asked Dr. Philip Landrigan the following question:
Given all of these sources of formaldehyde, why should anyone be worried
about a little bit more from Lumber Liquidators' laminate?
• He replied:
It all depends on how much someone is exposed to. Substances considered
toxic are harmless in small doses and, conversely, an ordinarily harmless
substance can be deadly if over-consumed.
• Exactly. For all the talk about the many sources of formaldehyde in a
home, various studies have shown that the average American is
actually exposed to very low and declining levels of formaldehyde in
their home.
• The most recent study found the "mean concentration of
formaldehyde…in housing of 17 ppb…(and) a mean level of
formaldehyde for mobile homes or trailers ranging from 15.5 to 24.7
ppb." (Note that this study is a decade old, so levels are likely even
lower today.)
• This trend of declining formaldehyde levels in the average home is a
testament to the effectiveness of strong environment regulation and is
great news for American families. -63-Regulators Have Set Various Limits (1)
• There is no national law setting a limit for formaldehyde in indoor air –
rather, various regulators have come up with vastly different numbers, as
this table shows:
• [1] NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards, September 2005 (NIOSH is the National Institute for
Occupational Safety and Health, a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
• [2] AN UPDATE ON FORMALDEHYDE, 1997 REVISION, U.S. CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY
COMMISSION, WASHINGTON, DC 20207 -64-Regulators Have Set Various Limits (2)
In addition, here are three more data points:
1. The California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (COEHHA) sets
formaldehyde limits of 55 micrograms per meter cubed for acute (short-term)
exposure and 9 micrograms per meter cubed [7 ppb] for 8-hour and chronic
exposure.
2. COEHHA, in another document, sets formaldehyde limits of 40 micrograms per
meter cubed [33 ppb] for "No Significant Risk Levels (NSRLs) for Carcinogens."
3. The California Air Resource Board (CARB), in a 2004 report entitled
Formaldehyde in the Home, notes that adverse health effects begin at 40 ppb and,
in addition, citing a study by COEHHA, concluded that:
For an eight-hour exposure time, no short-term adverse effects would be expected to occur
if average levels do not exceed 27 ppb (OEHHA's interim 8-hour REL).
However, people often spend more than eight hours a day in their homes; infants, young
children and the infirm sometimes spend virtually the entire day inside their home. Thus, it
is highly desirable that residential levels remain well below 27 ppb to avoid acute effects in
such individuals. To avoid irritant effects, air concentrations in new homes, including
manufactured homes, also should not exceed 27 ppb.
(Note that a 1991 report by CARB, entitled Formaldehyde in the Home, Indoor Air
Quality Guideline No. 1 and Supplement, set 100 ppb as an "action level" and 50
ppb as a "target level," but this has been superseded by the 2004 CARB report.)
-65-Regulators Have Set Various Limits (3)
• To summarize, the seven regulators are all over the map, at 7 ppb at the
low end and 750 at the high end, as this table shows:
• Recall that the three samples of Lumber Liquidators' Chinese-made
laminate that 60 Minutes had tested came in at 57, 93 and 268 ppb, so
depending on which standard one uses, one could conclude that the
laminate is far (8-38 times) above a safe level of 7 ppb – or that's it's well
below the HUD and OSHA levels.
• What should we conclude? And, more importantly, after numerous
federal regulators such as the Consumer Product Safety Commission
and EPA finish emissions tests on Lumber Liquidators' Chinese-made
laminate, what are they likely to conclude?
-66-Regulators Are Likely to Set a National
Standard at a Low Level (1)
My view is that regulators are highly likely to set a national standard
somewhere in the range of the very low levels established by COEHHA,
CARB, NIOSH and FEMA for six reasons:
1. The HUD and OSHA standards are very out of date: the former was
established 30 years ago in 1985 and the latter was last revised 23 years
ago in 1992. Since then, the science on formaldehyde has improved
dramatically, and there's now far greater awareness of its dangers (it's
been established as a known carcinogen, among other things), which are
reflected in the more recent and much lower levels set by other
regulators.
2. The OSHA standard is for a workplace (i.e., adults, eight hours per day)
whereas, for flooring, regulators will be concerned about babies and
children in homes pretty much 24/7.
3. There are five data points between 7 and 33 ppb – and two extreme
outliers. Where do you think regulators are likely to set the national
standard?
-67-Regulators Are Likely to Set a National
Standard at a Low Level (2)
4. Note that the maximum formaldehyde levels in the table above are for all
formaldehyde in indoor air, not just from flooring, so when regulators set
a level for flooring only, they are likely to pick an even lower number.
5. The regulatory agencies looking into this are part of a Democratic
administration that's been very strong on environmental issues.
6. Given that there will always be some level of ambiguity – it's not like
anyone can definitively say "16 ppb is safe, but 17 isn't" – I can't think of
any reason why an agency charged with protecting consumers would
want to take any risk.
My answer: they won't. I think regulators are almost certain to set a
standard in the 7-33 ppb range (probably much closer to the low end),
which means all three Lumber Liquidators samples 60 Minutes had
tested are far out of compliance.
Assuming the regulators' tests show similar results, it's unclear what
actions they might take, but I suspect they'll be very onerous for Lumber
Liquidators – and its stock.
-68-What About Lumber Liquidators' Claim That 97% of Its
Customers' Homes Have Safe Levels of Formaldehyde? (1)
• On May 7th, Lumber Liquidators disclosed:
Initial Indoor Air Quality Testing Program Results
Initial results of the indoor air quality testing program for certain laminate
flooring customers – conducted by independent, accredited laboratories –
indicate that over 97% of customers' homes were within the protective
guidelines established by the World Health Organization for formaldehyde
levels in indoor air…
… While various groups have recommended higher or lower levels, there is
currently no national standard for recommended indoor home air
concentrations in the United States. The company has used the guideline
established by the World Health Organization, which is an international
consensus standard that draws on recent research and the expertise of the
many governments, academic institutions and researchers that have studied
formaldehyde emissions.
• Phew, we can all breathe a big sigh of relief, right? WRONG!
-69-What About Lumber Liquidators' Claim That 97% of Its
Customers' Homes Have Safe Levels of Formaldehyde? (2)
These results are meaningless for three reasons:
1. The testing program, according to expert testimony, is "the cheapest possible way
to test," "cannot be considered valid" and "will likely provide some consumers with
poor data that give them a false sense of security." In short, Lumber Liquidators
has rigged the testing program to show the results it seeks.
2. For many customers, the formaldehyde will have off-gassed – a process that can
take anywhere from a few months to a year or two. Thus, even if the testing
program was rigorous and legitimate, it would show low levels of formaldehyde in
the air of most customers' homes (I'd guess pretty much all of them who'd installed
their flooring more than a year ago). But that doesn't mean that they weren't being
poisoned to a significant degree in the first year or so after the flooring was
installed. And it certainly doesn't mean that the Chinese-made laminate that
Lumber Liquidators was selling until very recently is safe – in fact, all of the
evidence indicates that it's not.
3. The WHO standard of 81 ppb that Lumber Liquidators chose is among the highest
of any regulators and is certainly not the appropriate standard for flooring in one's
home, where babies and children might be playing/crawling on the floor for many
hours every day. Four different American regulators have set limits for homes
ranging from 7-33 ppb.
-70-You can also read
