Weather forecasting for race management 15th April 2018

Weather forecasting for race
management 15th April 2018

Weather Forecast Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
          C9TOpAYQz0U

Meteorology and Weather
forecasting is not an exact science
   The most important lesson that you
     will learn today, if you have not
            already learned it!!!

Our Temperate Climate is predictably
          unpredictable

Our Jet stream

Week before an event
• www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/surface-
  pressure
• www.met.ie - Surface Pressure Charts
• www.magicseweed.com
• www.noaa.gov
• https://www.ventusky.com
• http://pocketgrib.com

Surface Pressure charts

Weather Chart Symbols

Weather Language
•   Imminent: within 6 hours;
•   Soon: between 6 and 12 hours;
•   Later: between 12 and 24 hours.
•   The speed of movement of pressure and frontal
    systems is described as follows:-
•   Slowly: up to 15 knots;
•   Steadily: 15 to 25 knots;
•   Rather quickly: 25 to 35 knots;
•   Rapidly: 35 to 45 knots;
•   Very Rapidly: greater than 45knots.

Tracking lows across the Atlantic
• Monitor their pressure daily
• Monitor their direction
• Monitor their speed
• Observing pressure difference between the
  areas of Low & High Pressures
• Monitor the rate of advance
• Coll

Movement of fronts
Cold Fronts                 Warm Fronts
• Slope is 1: 100           • Slope is 1:200
• Speed 15 (Active); (in-   • Speed 10 Knots
  active) 25 knots          • Direction – north east
• Direction - Easterly

Weather Tools
•   Your Mark Layers
•   Chimneys - Incinerator in Dublin Bay
•   Weather Buoy Network
•   Met Ocean Smart buoys on Twitter
•   UK – Met Office Surface pressure charts
•   Shipping Forecasts - listen
•   Met Eireann- be aware of warnings - listen
•   Algorithms! – are only Models

Algorithms/Models
• UK Met Offices in February commissioned a new
  Cray XC40 which is the world's most powerful
  supercomputer dedicated to weather
• "It's one of the largest machines in the world,
  and it's capable of doing more calculations in a
  second then there are grains of sand on every
  beach in the world,"
• " This gives us a statistical understanding of the
  confidence and probability of a given forecast."

Your favourite Algorithms?
•   https://www.windguru.cz
•   http://www.xcweather.co.uk
•   https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin
•   https://magicseaweed.com
•   https://www.wunderground.com
•   https://www.windfinder.com
•   https://www.accuweather.com
•   https://www.weatheronline.co.uk

Your favourites Algorithms?
•   http://www.globalsailingweather.com
•   http://www.myweather2.com
•   https://www.predictwind.com
•   https://www.passageweather.com
•   www.wetterzentrale.de
•   Met Eireann 3 hour forecast

Weather instruments
•   Portable digital weather stations
•   Measures barometric pressure & trend
•   Temperature Max & Min
•   Humidity Max & Min
•   Anemometer – direction & speed
•   Wind bending – veering & backing
•   Wind oscillations – left & right

Met Ocean Smart buoys
• Wind/gust speed and       •   Fastnet Lighthouse
  direction                 •   Kish Bank Lighthouse
• Air and sea temperature   •   Ballybunion
• Barometric pressure       •   Coningbeg
• Humidity                  •   Dublin Bay
• Wave data                 •   Finnis
• Current profiles          •   Foyle
• Radar transponder         •   Splaugh
• Pollution information     •   South Hunter
                            •   South Rock

Cloud Types

Land & Sea Breezes

Avoid Lightening – get the boats in off
    the water and sailors out fast

The weather window!
• Use your favourite algorithm forecast as an
  indicator
• Then prove it by examining the weather
  buoys and smart buoys on cil.ie or Twitter
• Check barometric pressure, temperature and
  humidity that they support the weather
  algorithm model you are using.
• Check radar picture
• Check Met Eireann 3 hour forecast

Weather (Wind) Warnings
• STATUS YELLOW - Weather Alert - Be Aware
• only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location
  and/or activity. Mean Speeds between 50 and 65 km/h;
  Gusts between 90 and 110 km/h
• STATUS ORANGE - Weather Warning - Be Prepared
• all recipients in the affected areas should prepare
  themselves. Mean Speeds between 65 and 80 km/h;
  Gusts between 110 and 130 km/h
• STATUS RED - Severe Weather Warning - Take Action
• recipients take action to protect themselves &
  properties. Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h;
  Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h

Thank you for your for not falling
              asleep!
• Any Questions?
• jfmleech@gmail
  .com
• 086 2382919