Verication of Anatolian Earthquake on February 6, 2023 Prediction using seismic coecient analysis
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Veri cation of Anatolian Earthquake on February 6, 2023 Prediction using seismic coe cient analysis Amir Shamgani M.Sc, Shahid Beheshti University Hamid Saffari ( h_saffari@sbu.ac.ir ) Shahid Beheshti University Research Article Keywords: Eastern Anatolian fault, spatial b-value anomalies, temporal b-value anomalies, seismicity parameters, earthquake prediction Posted Date: March 17th, 2023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2678885/v1 License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License Additional Declarations: No competing interests reported.
1 Verification of Anatolian Earthquake on February 6, 2023 Prediction
2 using seismic coefficient analysis
3 Amir Shamgani1, Hamid Saffari2*
4
1
5 M.Sc., Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
6 a.shamgani@mail.sbu.ac.ir
2,*
7 Associate Professor, Department of Structure & Earthquake, Faculty of Civil, Water & Environmental Engineering, Shahid
8 Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
9 h_saffari@sbu.ac.ir
10 *corresponding author
11
12 Abstract
13 A number of large and deadly earthquake occurred on February 6, 2023, in the vicinity of the
14 Eastern Anatolian Fault, which caused a lot of financial and human losses. This fault runs from
15 the south to the northeast of Turkey, which forms a tectonic boundary between the Arabian plate
16 and the Anatolian plate. Due to the fact that the Arabian plate is moving towards the north and
17 the Anatolian plate is moving towards the west, the mechanism of this fault is strike-slip. In this
18 article, the spatial and temporal changes of seismic parameters in an area with coordinates of 35
19 to 40 degrees longitude and 35.5 to 39 degrees latitude, which includes the Eastern Anatolian
20 fault, have been investigated. To this purpose, seismic data from 01/01/1990 to 02/21/2023 with
21 a moment magnitude greater than or equal to 3.5 (Mw≥3.5) was considered. This research
22 showed that before large earthquakes occurred on February 6, 2023, the seismicity parameter b
23 clearly decreased. This was happened in the about 6 months before the earthquakes so the b-
24 value had significantly decreased from 3.98 to 0.69. Using spatial and temporal analysis of
25 seismic coefficients besides other pre-detectors such as changes in the amount of stress, wave
26 velocity, gravity characteristics, electric resistance and magnetic field can lead to better
27 prediction of hazardous earthquakes.
28 Keywords: Eastern Anatolian fault, spatial b-value anomalies, temporal b-value anomalies,
29 seismicity parameters, earthquake prediction
30
31 1. Introduction
32 Earthquakes are one of the natural phenomena that have threatened human life since the
33 distant past. The occurrence of large earthquakes in the south of Turkey has caused many human
34 and financial losses. The Eastern Anatolian fault is an active fault in Turkey, which is the border
35 between the Arabian and the Anatolian plates. The Arabian plate is moving towards the north,
36 and the mechanism of the Eastern Anatolian fault is strike-slip. The strike of this fault is running
37 from eastern to south-central Turkey. The investigation of the seismicity of the region shows that
38 destructive earthquakes have occurred in this region for centuries. Development of cities and
39 population centers in the 20th and 21st centuries in the vicinity of this fault caused many
40 buildings and lifelines to be destroyed due to February 6, 2023 earthquake. Since they were
41 located in the fault zone, accelerations were applied several times higher than the seismic codes
42 to them and were destroyed.
43 The East Anatolian Plateau, is a part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogen which has a 200 km
44 wide, E-W trending. This area has been surrounded by two peripheral mountains of the
45 Anatolian Peninsula (Yılmaz and Yi 2022). The plateau is covered by thick, interbedded
46 Neogene volcanic and sedimentary rocks (Yilmaz et al. 1997). New geological and geophysical
47 data indicate the existence of an ophiolite mélange accretion complex under the topsoil of eastern
48 Anatolia. Deposition of cover units began during the closure of the Neo-Tethys Ocean, located
49 between the Pontidian Arcs to the north, and continental debris drifted southward from the
50 Arabian Plate (Yılmaz and Yi 2022).
51
52 The surrounding orogenic belt experienced different orogenic evolution. The East Anatolian
53 Orogenic Belt was formed during the late stages of development of the surrounding orogenic
54 belts. The Neothesia oceanic lithosphere disappeared from all of eastern Turkey in the late
55 Eocene. After the oceanic lithosphere was completely submerged, the eastern Anatolia began to
56 rise as the Arabian Plate continued its northward advance. The current stage of elevation of the
57 East Anatolian Plateau as a coherent block began in the late Miocene (Yılmaz and Yi 2022). It
58 should be mentioned that many researchers have also studied seismotectonic of Anatolian
59 Plateau (Şengör and Kidd 1979; Sengör and Yilmaz 1981; Yılmaz 2017, 2019; Yilmaz et al.
60 1997; Yılmaz and Yi 2022). In figure (1), the location and direction of movement of the
61 Anatolian plate and Arabian plate relative to each other and faults northern and eastern of
62 Anatolian plate are shown.
63
a) Slip rates of Arabian & Anatolian plates (Hubert-Ferrari b) Major active faults in the Anatolian Plate
et al. 2009; McClusky et al. 2000) (East Anatolian Fault - Wikipedia, n.d.)
64 Figure 1: Map of the main tectonic plates and faults in the area of study
65
66 2- Investigation of seismicity parameters
67 During an earthquake some physical properties of soil and rock will change (Wyss and
68 Habermann 1979). Some of these specifications, such as wave velocity, gravity properties,
69 electric resistance and magnetic field are totally independent from mechanism of faulting. Some
70 studies even indicate changes may happen in the general physical conditions in the region during
71 an earthquake (Arabelos et al. 2001). The seismic parameters of the region also change under the
72 effect of energy release and earthquake occurrence. Regarding the relationship between
73 cumulative Frequency-Magnitude Distribution (FMD) of earthquakes in a region, relation (1) is
74 presented as follows by Gutenberg and Richter (1944):
75 (1)
76 In relation (1), parameter b represents the distribution of earthquakes based on magnitude,
77 parameter a represents the seismicity level of the region, and λ indicates the annual exceedance
78 rate of the magnitude M, which is the cumulative frequency of earthquakes versus their
79 magnitude. By drawing the λ diagram versus Mw and calculating parameters a and b in a desired
80 area for a time period, it is possible to judge the level of seismicity of the area and the energy
81 level, which is related to the large or small earthquakes. In other words, the parameter ―a‖
82 indicates the y-intercept of the curve, so it expresses the number of earthquakes that occurred in
83 the region and a certain time period, which describes the seismicity level of the region. The b
84 parameter indicates the slope of the curve (FMD), which is the relative probability of small and
85 large earthquakes in such a way that as the value of b increases, the number of small earthquakes
86 increases compared to the number of larger earthquakes. Many studies proved the change of the
87 value of b before the occurrence of a large earthquake and it can be used in the prediction of
88 earthquakes. In this case, the value of b decreases in a period of several months before the
89 occurrence of large earthquakes (Sammonds et al. 1992). Molchan and Dmitrieva (1990) have
90 investigated the time variations of b for foreshocks. Molchan et al. (1999) stated that by
91 examining local and global earthquakes the value of b resulting from foreshocks has decreased
92 by 50% before the occurrence of the main earthquake.
93 The most famous methods for calculating the b parameter are the least squares method and
94 the maximum likelihood method (Wiemer and Wyss 1997). Equation (2) is used to calculate b-
95 value using the maximum likelihood method (Hirata 1989; Aki 1965):
96 ̅
(2)
97 where ̅ indicates the average magnitude of the earthquakes in the catalog and Mmin
98 represents the smallest magnitude. Determining the Mmin parameter is related to the distribution
99 of earthquake magnitudes in the study area. In most cases, this parameter is obtained by drawing
100 a diagram of the cumulative frequency of earthquakes versus the magnitude. So, the drawn graph
101 is approximated with a line and the value for which the data is placed under the line is chosen as
102 the smallest value. Many researchers have investigated the changes of the b-value parameter
103 (Ogata et al. 1991; Wiemer & Benoit 1996; Wiemer & Wyss 1997). They showed that b-value
104 changes over time and space. Main et al. (1989) stated that during the period of time before an
105 earthquake, ̅ increases greatly. The researches result shows that before a big earthquake, the
106 average increases greatly and as a result the b-value decreases (Smith 1986; Wyss and Lee
107 1973). A low b-value indicates high stress in the area, and different b-values in different areas
108 show different stress accumulation in the area (Kanamori 1981).
109 Woessner and Wiemer (2005) proposed to modify the parameter Mmin with relation (3) where
110 MC represents the magnitude for which the catalog is complete:
111 (3)
112 MC can be calculated by the maximum curvature method in the frequency-magnitude plot for
113 data that follow the Gutenberg-Richter law (Wiemer and Wyss 2000). The MC parameter over
114 time is obtained from the sliding window method (Wiemer et al. 1998). The occurrence of large
115 to medium earthquakes causes an increase in the value of MC for a short period of time (Wiemer
116 and Katsumata 1999).
117 The amount of error caused by calculations in statistical analyzes needs to be calculated.
118 Analyzing the parameter b is a statistical work, so it requires calculation of error and reliability
119 percentage of calculations. The amount of calculation error b can be obtained from equation (4)
120 (Shi and Bolt 1982):
∑ ̅
121 √ (4)
122 where n is the total number of earthquakes in the study area. Using equation (2), the value of
123 b can be calculated with the availability of sufficient seismic data for the desired area. Time-
124 dependent parameter for this task, by using a time window that includes events belonging to a
125 specific time interval, the value of b is calculated in different time intervals. Of course, there may
126 be an overlap between two time windows. In this way, the calculation of the value of the b-value
127 is done in different time intervals and its graph is drawn, which is called the time-dependent
128 change graph of the b-value (Firouzfar and Ansari 2019).
129 Mandelbrot (1982) proposed natural phenomena with fractal geometry, which with the help
130 of it, complex phenomena from the aspect of temporally and spatially, such as seismic activities,
131 have been interpreted. Seismic activities have a fractal structure with respect to time, place and
132 magnitude (Kagan and Knopoff 1978). One of the powerful tools in calculating self-similarity in
133 a geometric phenomenon is the analysis and calculation of the correlation dimension (Öztürk and
134 Bayrak 2012). Relation (5) expresses the correlation dimension of the spatial distribution of
135 seismicity of a region (Grassberger and Procaccia 1983):
136 (5)
137 where C(r) is the correlation function obtained from relation (6) and calculates the spatial 138 classification and the distance between a set of points: 139 (6) 140 where N (R
171 different cases of the borders of the study area for analyzing the b-value. In other words, it shows
172 the sensitivity of the b-value to the boundaries of the investigated area.
(a)-Case 1: Wide rectangular boundary and respective b-value over the time
(b)-Case 2: Faulting zone system boundary and respective b-value over the time
(c)-Case 3: Earthquake affected zone boundary and respective b-value over the time (Using events just after
Earthquake February 6, 2023)
173 Figure 2: The sensitivity of the b-value parameter to the boundaries of the study area
174
175 In Figure 2-a, a rectangular area from longitude 35 to 40 and latitude 35.5 to 39 is selected, 176 and the value of parameter b is drawn on its right side. Figure 2-b presents a large rectangular 177 area showing fault zone system which is parallel to the boundary between the Arabian and 178 Anatolian plates, and the variation of its b parameter over time is shown in right side. Figure 2-c 179 shows the location of earthquakes and aftershocks of February 6, 2023 until February 21, 2023. 180 If the range of these earthquakes be selected as the investigation area, the changes of its b 181 parameter will be according to the graph on the right side. Obviously, with any choice of 182 boundaries of the study range of the parameter b, the changes will be somewhat different. The 183 authors suggest that the proper boundary of study area can be selected using slip vectors and the 184 migration pattern of the seismic centers. In such a way that far earthquakes independent of this 185 seismic zone do not affect the changes of b-value in the study area. 186 187 Seismic catalog and analysis results 188 In this research, the seismic catalog extracted from AFAD (Turkey Disaster and Emergency 189 Management Authority) was used to calculate and check the spatial and temporal b-value. The 190 specifications of the spatial window of the catalog are according to the figures 3, 4 and 5 with 191 longitude coordinates of 35 to 40 degrees and latitude of 35.5 to 39 degrees. The time span of the 192 catalog is from January 01, 1990 to February 21, 2023. The minimum magnitude of the seismic 193 moment in the catalog is equal to 3.5. To convert the values, the relations proposed by 194 Kadirioğlu and Kartal (2016) were used. The number of data extracted for this research is 2438 195 earthquakes in a period of 33 years. 196 197 198 Figure 3: Seismicity map of Turkey and epicentral distribution of seismic events from January 01, 1990 to 199 February 21, 2023 (AFAD | Deprem.Gov.Tr, n.d.)
200 In figures 4 and 5 all the events with MW greater than or equal to 3.5 are shown in the study
201 area. Events with a magnitude greater than 6.5 are also marked with a yellow star.
202
Figure 4: Epicentric distribution map of the investigated Figure 5: Three-dimensional map of the
seismic catalog in the desired study area (Mw≥3.5) investigated seismic catalog in the target study
area (Mw≥3.5)
203
204 The diagram of the number of earthquakes versus magnitude, time and depth includes
205 general information about the seismicity of the study area. The study of the seismicity of this
206 area according to the diagram in Figure (6) shows that the number of data has decreased from
207 magnitude 3.55 to 4.05, but the number of events at magnitude 4.15 has increased significantly.
208 The survey between the years 1990 to 2023 in the region shows that the region's characteristic
209 earthquakes in view point of frequency were as large as 4.1 ~ 4.2 and after that 4.2 ~ 4.3. At
210 higher magnitudes, the number of events has a downward trend, which of course is expected.
211 Figure (7) shows the histogram of the number of events in the hours of the day and night, in
212 the study area, which shows that at least 80 events occurred in each hour of the day and night.
213 The highest number of earthquakes (Mw≥3.5) occurred at 2:30 AM and 21:30 AM.
214
Figure 6: The histogram of the number of events per Figure 7: The histogram of the number of events per
moment magnitude (Mw≥3.5) hour of the day and night (Mw≥3.5)
215
216 In figure (8), the diagram of the depth of events versus time shows that in the study area,
217 most of the earthquakes occurred at a depth of less than 20 km. According to this diagram, it can
218 be seen that earthquakes greater than or equal to 6.5 occurred at a depth of less than 10 km. The
219 diagram in Figure (9) shows the distribution of event sizes versus time in the study area.
220 According to this chart, earthquakes with Mw≥6.5 between 1990 and 2023 occurred in 2020 and
221 later.
222
Figure 8: Depth diagram of earthquakes over time Figure 9: Magnitude diagram of earthquakes over time
(Mw≥3.5) (Mw≥3.5)
223
224 Figure (10) shows the cumulative frequency diagram of events. In Figure (11) the cumulative
225 frequency diagram of moment magnitude versus time in the study area between 1990 and 2023
226 has been shown.
227Figure 10: Cumulative abundance chart by time Figure 11: Frequency diagram of torque in terms of
(Mw≥3.5) time (Mw≥3.5)
228
229 MC can be calculated according to Figure (12) by the maximum curvature method in the
230 frequency-magnitude diagram for data that follow the Gutenberg-Richter law. In figure (12), the
231 value of MC, b-value and a-value in the study area has been obtained by the maximum curvature
232 method. In calculation of MC over time, the sliding window method has been used. Figure (13)
233 shows the changes of MC versus time. According to this figure, the value of MC has decreased
234 versus time. This means the quality and performance of the seismic network has increased
235 around the area. It can be seen that there are a series of disturbances in the value of MC which
236 can be resulted from the stop of sending data of some stations for various reasons. One of these
237 reasons can be originated from low attention of the network operator to register small events. Of
238 course, the occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes causes an increase in MC value for a
239 short period of time which they are happened. Figure (14) shows the spatial change of MC in the
240 study area. In this figure, the value of MC varies between 4.1 ~ 4.5 and in most of the cases it has
241 a value close to 4.1.
Figure 12: Frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) Figure 13: Diagram of MC changes versus time and
and estimated values of seismicity parameters a, b and its decreasing trend (Mw≥3.5)
MC (Mw≥3.5)
242243 244 Figure 14: Spatial MC distribution 245 246 The b parameter varies over time and space. In the time period before the earthquake, the ̅ 247 increases. The researches results show that before a big earthquake, the ̅ increases and the b- 248 value decreases, consequently. Figure (15) shows the changes of b-value versus time. According 249 to this figure, b parameter has a value of 3.98 on August 30, 2022, and reached a value of 0.69 250 on February 6, 2023. In other words, before the occurrence of the biggest recent earthquakes of 251 the Eastern Anatolian fault, the b-value has decreased a lot and reached its lowest value in 33 252 years. 253 In figure (16) the changes of b-value are given versus magnitude. It can be seen that the b- 254 value has increased with the occurrence of small earthquakes. On the other hand, with the 255 occurrence of larger earthquakes, b-value has been decreased. 256
Figure 15: Diagram of b-value changes over time, one Figure 16: Diagram of b-value versus magnitude
year before the main earthquake of February 6, 2023.
257
258 Figure (17) also shows the changes of b-value versus time in an overview. According to this
259 Figure, the value of b in 2023 is lower than all years in study time span, and it can be seen that
260 the probability of large earthquakes in this year is higher.
261
262
263 Figure 17: Diagram b-value changes versus time
264
265 In figure (18), the spatial changes of b-value in the study area are shown. The b-value
266 changes in this map show the range between 1~1.7, which indicates high stress in the areas with
267 low b-value. As expected, recent large earthquakes have occurred in areas with low b-value,268 which have high stress. The reason for the different b-value in other areas is the accumulation of 269 different stress in the area during the time period. Figure (19) shows the standard deviation map 270 of the b-value in the study area. The standard deviation ranges from 0.08 to 0.2, which is less 271 than 0.12 in most of the area. 272 273 274 Figure 18: Spatial b-value distribution 275 276 Figure 19: Spatial b-value standard deviation distribution
277 Figure (20) shows the map of the spatial changes of the a-value in the study area. This 278 parameter expresses the level of regional seismicity so the higher the regional seismicity, the 279 larger the a-value parameter. In this area, the a-value varies between 7.0 to 8.8. 280 281 Figure 20: Spatial a-value distribution 282 283 Conclusion 284 Eastern Anatolian fault is formed at the meeting of Arabian and Anatolian tectonic plates. 285 This fault is running from the south to the northeast of Turkey. In this research, a detailed 286 investigation was done on the temporal and spatial changes of seismicity parameters. The 287 selected catalog was focused on the Eastern Anatolia region from longitude 35 to 40 degrees and 288 latitude 35.5 to 39 degrees. Catalogue involves events from January 1, 1990 to February 21, 289 2023 with a moment magnitude greater than or equal to 3.5. Next, sensitivity analysis of b 290 parameter was performed according to different selection of boundaries in the study area. In the 291 investigation of temporal b-value, it can be seen before the earthquake on February 6, 2023, the 292 b-value has been decreasing since about 6 months before. It confirms the theory of b-value 293 decreasing before the big earthquakes. Although changes of parameter b and especially its 294 decrease in the months leading to a moderate or large earthquake are effective in predicting the 295 time and location of earthquakes, it is suggested to promote the prediction using other advanced 296 analysis. Some of these are containing of changes in the amount of stress, wave velocity, gravity 297 characteristics, electric resistance and magnetic field. Using all mentioned measuring and 298 analysis of them will help better estimation of time and location prediction of moderate and large 299 earthquakes and it will be lead to better management of earthquake crisis and minimizing the 300 human and financial losses.
301 Declarations 302 Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. 303 Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. 304 Consent for publication: All authors give their consent so this paper can be published. 305 Conflict of interest: There is no conflict of interest. 306 Funding The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the 307 preparation of this manuscript. 308 309 310 References 311 312 AFAD | deprem.gov.tr. (n.d.). Retrieved March 6, 2023, from https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/event-catalog 313 Aki K (1965). Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N=a-bM and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthquake Res. 314 Inst., Tokyo Univ., 43, 237–239. https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1573387450038851840 315 Arabelos D, Asteriadis G, Contadakis M, Zioutas G, Xu D, Zhang C, Zheng B (2001) The use of an outlier detecting method in 316 time series of continuous daily measurements of underground water level and temperature in earthquake prediction 317 investigation. Tectonophysics, 338(3–4). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00086-5 318 Cooper G R J, Cowan D R (2008) Comparing time series using wavelet-based semblance analysis. Computers and Geosciences, 319 34(2), 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.03.009 320 East Anatolian Fault - Wikipedia. (n.d.). Retrieved March 6, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Anatolian_Fault 321 Enescu B, Ito K, Struzik Z R (2006) Wavelet-based multiscale resolution analysis of real and simulated time-series of 322 earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 164(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02810.x 323 Firouzfar A, Ansari B (2018) Parameter b , a common point in the occurrence of recent earthquakes in Iran. The 1th National 324 Conference on the Role of Civil Engineering in Hazard Mitigations. (In Persian) 325 GhaedAminiHaroni Kh (2017) Spatial Analysis of b-value and fractal dimension of Earthquakes in Central Iran. M.Sc. thesis, 326 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, department of physics. (In Persian) 327 Grassberger P, Procaccia I (1983) Characterization of strange attractors. Physical Review Letters, 50(5), 346–349. 328 https://doi.org/10.1103/PHYSREVLETT.50.346 329 Gutenberg B, Richter C F (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34(4), 330 185–188. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0340040185 331 Hasanzadeh B (2013) Investigation and analysis of seismicity parameters a and b, fractal dimension in the central Kope Dagh. 332 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. (In Persian) 333 Hirata T (1989) A correlation between the b value and the fractal dimension of earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 334 94(B6). https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB06p07507 335 Hubert-Ferrari A, King G, van der Woerd J, Villa I, Altunel E, Armijo R (2009) Long-term evolution of the North Anatolian 336 Fault: New constraints from its eastern termination. Geological Society Special Publication, 311. 337 https://doi.org/10.1144/SP311.5 338 Ji Y-S, Oh S-H, Kim K-Y (2012) Wavelet Based Semblance and Eigenvalue Analysis for Geomagnetic Variation Related to 339 Micro-Earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula. Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society, 33(5), 408–421. 340 https://doi.org/10.5467/jkess.2012.33.5.408 341 Kadirioğlu F T, Kartal R F (2016) The new empirical magnitude conversion relations using an improved earthquake catalogue 342 for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 25(4), 300–310. 343 https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-1511-7
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