UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
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VOLUME 113 | ISSUE 4 | JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2021 UNION BUDGET 2021 Cover Story Tax Corner Global Connect India FY 2021/22 Union Budget: Budget 2021 – 2021: A Promising Bold spending plans Setting the Pace Chapter in the underpinned by Shaky for a Resilient India-Germany 07 Funding Projections 15 V-shaped Trajectory 20 Story REBOOT REFORM RESURGE
Contents President Mr. Rajiv Podar January- February 2021 Vice-President Mr. Juzar Khorakiwala Editor & Publisher Mr. Ajit Mangrulkar Director-General Executive Editor Mr. Sanjay Mehta Dy. Director-General Copy Editing & Concept Ms. Chitra Kamath Jt. Director-Membership Ms. Jayshree Poojary Asst.Director-PR Views expressed in the IMC Journal are not necessarily those of the Committees of the Chamber. Non-receipt claims will not be entertained after four months of the publication of the journal; six months in the case of overseas subscribers. Please send correspondence concerning this journal to: Editor, IMC Journal IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry IMC Marg, Churchgate, Mumbai- 400 020 Tel: +91-022-71226633 Fax: 2204 8508 E-mail: ajit.mangrulkar@imcnet.org Website: www.imcnet.org Insight 7 UNION BUDGET 2021-2022 Single Copy Price Agri-infra focus of Union Budget will ` 50/- exert long-term positive impact Annual Subscription 11 Budget 2021-22: Enhanced focus on (For 6 Issues) digitisation ` 200/- (India) | $ 30 (Abroad) Cover Story 14 Does the budget have the Midas Design & Printing: 8 India FY 2021/22 Union Budget: touch? Let us see through the Fog Finesse Graphics & Prints Pvt. Ltd. Bold spending plans underpinned by with Insight and Clarity in this Tel: +91-022-4036 4600 E-mail : info@finesse.co.in Shaky Funding Projections recovery of a Century Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 1
Tax Corner 35 Can the Union Budget 2021-22 accelerate India’s Economic Growth? 16 Budget 2021 – Setting the Pace for a Resilient V-shaped Trajectory 35 Reimagining your Business for the Digital Era 36 How to Start-up and then Scale-up? 36 Commodity Market Drivers and Outlook for 2021 Global Connect 37 Startup Entrepreneurs - Art of Fundraising 21 2021: A Promising Chapter in the India-Germany 37 Pre-Packaged and Liquidation under IBC Story 38 What MSMEs need in the Current Economy? 23 Meeting with Norwegian Consul General to Mumbai 39 Marketing and Sales Guide for Entrepreneurs 2021 23 MOU signed between IMC and Japan Association to establish Bilateral Business Forum 40 Business Partner City Roundtable by Osaka City Government Special Initatives 41 Recipe of Success with Innovation and Tech 24 Hon’ble Finance Minister at 42 Commodities: Options in Goods Contract - Gold and Sarvasparshi Arthsankalp 2021 Gold Options in Goods Contract - An Investment Tool 24 Memorandum Of Understanding signed with the Department of Commerce and Industries, 42 What if the soul of your business disappeared Government of Mahrashtra overnight? Turning calamities into opportunities 25 Conference on Technical Textile – The Future of 42 Human Capital – Your Differentiator in 2021 POETRY Indian Textile Industry 43 Start-ups – Tax and Regulatory Perspective Budget Special 27 The Union Budget 2021-22 Ladies Wing 43 An Inside View of BR Chopra Iconic Films – In Conversation with Mrs. Renu Chopra Knowledge 44 The Grandeur of Russia 29 Will the New Farm L aws Reshape Agriculture 44 Shots of Serenity with Swami Purnachaitanya Markets? 44 Women in Philanthropy - A Personal Journey, a 29 Seminar on – Navi Mumbai as Entrepreneurship Hub Public Conversation 31 Panel discussion on Small Company Stock Market 44 Union Budget 2021 – Possibilities Amidst Listing Pandemonium 32 Journey Beyond Accreditation 45 Journeys Beyond Wanderlust - XPD2470 Drive from Coimbatore To London 33 INDCON 2020-21 – Building Stronger Research & Development Ecosystem – Enabling Saksham Bharat 45 Genext Espresso Abhiyaan 45 The Short Story Discussion with Ms. Soha Parekh Reboot | Reform | Resurge 2 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
From the President’s Desk Mr. Rajiv Podar As we move from survival to revival Wishing IMC phase, everyone alonga very happy with ourand26a sprosperous p e c i f i c - enew x p eyear r t 2021! committees continues We started to work 2021on range on of an programs extremely and positivevirtual noteevents with theto galvanize, commencement inspire and empower of the COVID-19our members vaccinationwith drive.a The shared learning second phase experience of the vaccinationas we navigate drive hasthrough already COVID begun and crisis.brings new hope and enthusiasm in our drive to fight the With COVID.the vaccine now being developed and approved by a few countries, we hope we can begin World Economy “normal living” in the coming Although recent vaccine approvals months. have raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic later this year, renewed World Economy social distancing through 2021, contraction in government spend- waves and new variants of the virus pose concerns for the outlook. Amid weighing heavily on GDP. ing). It is expected the decline in world exit a technical recession. Supply- basis, the second advance estimate exceptional uncertainty, the global GDP in 2020 to be less severe at side Indianmeasure, EconomyGVA recovered to pegs a weaker • Basis growthelevated the recent for FY21CPI at economy is projected to grow 5.5 –3.7% compared to –4.4% in the +1.0%YoY from -7.3% in Q2. -8.0% vs. preliminary estimate inflation prints and expectations on of percent in 2021 and 4.2 percent in September Global Economic • India’s GDP growth, while still -7.7%. evolvingHowever, at a closer(food price pressures look,and we 2022. The return to positive growth is Outlook(GEO). The Fitch Rating in contraction, registered a shal- find that GVA is now expected cost-push), inflation trajectory for to remarkable especially since it has The projected Research Reportsgrowth haverecovery also revised this lower contraction of 7.5% YoY in Q2 see a shallower contraction H2FY21; was revised by RBI at 6.5% occurred almost a quarter earlier yeartheir up follows a severe annual world collapse in 2020 GDP growth F Y 2 1 v i s - à - v i s b ro a d m a r ke t vs. -7.0% earlier projecting – which inflation is the at 6.8% fortrue Q3 than was envisaged 3-6 months that has for forecast had acute 2021, butadverse impacts only modestly, expectation of 8-9% contraction. indicators of real economic activity. and 5.8% for Q4 (vs. a range of 4.5- back and in comparison, to record on5.3% to women, (fromyouth, 5.2%), as thethepoor, deterio-the 5.4%rose announced contraction of 24.4% and 7.3% in PMI to 55.3 ininFebruary Oct-21).from For informally rating employed, outlook in the veryand near thoseterm who • Q2 GDP data has pushed India FY22, it estimates a range of 4.6- Q1 and Q2 respectively. The brisk 52.8 in January owing to quicker work in contact-intensive partially is offset by a stronger sectors. into a technical recession. However, 5.2% in H1. sequential recover y in Q3 FY21 increase in new orders. The global outlook fromgrowth contraction the second half for of the economy has shown signs of can be attributed to - pickup in 2020year. the is estimated We are now at -3.5 percent, significantly reviving due to easing of supply • Recovery in the manufacturing 0.9 percentage manufacturing, construction and Union Budget 2021-22 more optimistic point higher for 2022, as than we disruptions as well as unlocking of space in Q2 was driven by the real estate activities as the economy We thank of the Motor Hon’ble Vehicles Union Finance projectedvaccine assume in the rollout previous willforecast facili- pent-up demand. sectors and underwent a gradual unlock and Minister (reflecting tate stronger-than-expected a material easing in social Transport Equipment,considering for favorably Electrical labour mobility normalised, pent- IMC’s recommendation during Pre- momentumand distancing in boosting the second half of economic • On supply side, the noteworthy Equipment, Fabricated Metals, up and festive consumer demand Budget discussion. 2020). activity. A significant uplift to feature is the return of Manufactur- Tobacco, Textiles and Apparels, getting bunched up and mercifully Eurozone GDP of growth in 2022y isis ing and Utilities GVA to expansion L e a t many With h e r, Efresh l e c t ro n i c s the ideas, , H FY22 eavy The strength the recover an absence of a second wave of expected territory. Growth in Manufacturing projected from to varygrant disbursements significantly across virus in India alongside a few policy Machinery, Budget signalsFurniture the surgical anddelivery Wood from the EU’s Next Generation EU GVA has now turned positive after a Products, by Beverages,inBasic the Government areasMetals, it was countries, depending on access to initiatives especially for the real recovery fund (NGEU). The US gap of 4-quarters, upending the among others. desired the most. Undoubtedly, the medical interventions, effectiveness estate sector. Further, accelerated and the support, of policy Eurozoneexposureis expected to cross-to drag from both pre COVID and economic backdrop against which progress on vaccine and its rollout regain countrypre-pandemic spillovers, and (4Q19) GDP structural COVID related reasons. Further, • On this demand Budget wasside, while all was presented key in Q4 has buoyed consumer and levels earlierentering characteristics than the previously crisis. healthy expansion in Agriculture drivers continue challenging to say to thecontract least. Theon business sentiment. In this spirit, anticipated, by 3Q21 and 2Q22, and Allied activities on the back of a annualized has government basis, the extent focused on growth of underscoring the strength of the respectively. Indian Economy Vaccine rollout surplus monsoon is comforting. The contraction and economiceased recoverysignificantly by providingin V-shaped recovery, a gamut of lead problems or delays are the drag in growth however came from aQ2 vis-à-vis counter Q1. fiscal push. cyclical India’s GDP posted a mildly positive indicators either surpassed or were in key downside risk and could the financial sector (emanating growth of 0.4%YoY in Q3 FY21 after striking distance of pre-COVID levels In totality, bythe Budget result in repeated circuit- from deceleration in credit offtake) • Supported expenditure a hiatus of 2 quarters to finally by the end of CY20. On an annual announcements breaker lockdowns and extensive and public sector (reflected in a rationalization and other sources in must be seen of Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMCIMC Journal Journal < November-December n January-February 2021 2020 3 01
From the President’s Desk conjunction with the multitude of smart and intelligent way to generate Sitharaman ji at a meeting measures announced for the rural funds. organized during her first visit and MSME sectors in the ongoing to Mumbai post the Budget. IMC welcomes the proposals to fiscal year. set up – (i) Asset Reconstruction • Agriculture accounts for 16% Amidst the pandemic, while an Company Limited and Asset of India’s GDP has emerged as enhanced focus on Health sector was Management Company to tackle the star performer in India’s expected, the Budget overdelivered stressed assets of the banking pandemic-hit-economy by on this front. The introduction of sector, (ii) A Development Financial recording 3.4% growth during the new PM AtmaNirbhar Swasth Institution with an initial corpus of the first two quarters of 2020- Bharat scheme, a clearly demarcated Rs 20,000 cr for infrastructure and 21. IMC organized an excellent fund allocation towards COVID real estate lending along with début expert panel discussion on the vaccine, along with 137% increase in of a National Monetization Pipeline Agricultural reforms to discuss allocation towards the health sector and Zero-coupon bonds. These are the transformations expected are welcome steps. all steps to ensure requisite long-term in the Indian agricultural funds. landscape. In addition, the thrust on universal coverage of water supply, clean air, Separately, increase in permissible • India witnessing the startup expansion of Ujjwala scheme reflects FDI limit from 49% to 74% in boom with of 50,000 plus the positive intent of the Government Insurance Companies and allow startups. We sparked a new to improve general wellbeing. foreign ownership and control with conversation to harness safeguards is an attempt to attract the entrepreneurial spirit The Budget reinforces the overseas players in this underinvested in Navi Mumbai with a continued thrust on agriculture sector. webinar on New Mumbai as sector and welfare of farmers, via Entrepreneurship Hub Series higher outlays to RIDF, expansion In addition, the revised customs duty to create an ecosystem for POETRY of Operation Greens Scheme and structure to eliminate distortions, entrepreneurs to fulfil their e-NAMs etc. In fact, introduction especially for iron and steel, needs in terms of access, of the Agri-infrastructure cess in Electronic and mobile phone, textiles, human capital and funding. a non-inflationar y manner is a chemicals, gems & jewellery, leather smart move to channelize revenues among others, reinforces the creation • With technology accelerating in a guaranteed manner to further of levers to propel growth in the job- innovations and digitization agriculture investments. creating sectors. changing the face of business today, we had a scintillating From industr y perspective, However, there are few misses session on driving Digital the Budget rightly frontloads specially concerning the Tourism, Strategy by Prof Sunil Gupta, infrastructure investment. The Aviation, Hospitality sector. Also, Edward W. Carter Professor allocation towards infrastructure with there are some concerns regarding from Harvard University. a stronger focus on roads, railways, Tax amendments got in the Budget. ports, urban infrastructure among IMC has taken up the issues and • IMC has been organizing others, will create a much-needed represented to the Hon’ble Finance INDCON Building Stronger multiplier impact in the economy. Minister for consideration. Research and Development Towards this end, the pegged capital Ecosystem Enabling Saksham Overall, the Union Budget makes spending at 2.5% of GDP in FY22 Bharat Abhiyan – a series of a fervent pitch by attaining a fine which is a significant jump from virtual conclave pan-India with balance of supporting growth via a 1.7% in FY20, assumes paramount a focus on industry-academia durable impetus to investments with importance given that capex has partnership. A fter Mumbai- the commitment of a glide path of a nearly 7x impact on GDP than Pune, Delhi-NCR INDCON fiscal consolidation beginning FY22 revenue spending. Kolkata & Guwahati has also onwards. received a resounding success A well laid out plan for disinvestment with India’s top educationist including 2 Banks and an Insurance IMC Activities and eminent industry experts Company sets the stage for • I had the honour to speak and covering a wide range of issues. revamping of Public Sector Policy. share the dais with the Hon’ble A robust collaboration between Focus on Monetization of Assets is a Finance Minister Smt Nirmala industry-academia will create Reboot | Reform | Resurge 4 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
an employment-ready workforce biggest competitor, disrupt Considering the emergence producing a vast pool of skilled your business and emerge of technical textile as a fast- talent. in the new stronger avatar.” growing sub-segment finding – Mr. Rajesh Srivastava. its usage in an array of sectors • MSME’s represent the spirit A scintillating session on IMC was honored to have of enterprise and are the discovering the soul of your Hon’ble Minister for Textiles & backbone of our economic Women and Child Development engine as we head towards our business by Author Rajesh Smt. Smriti Irani at the $5 Trillion Goal! Through a Srivastava sparked a new Technical Textile Summit. session on What MSME’s need dynamic on how re-inventing On the potential of technical in the current economy. We our businesses at regular textile, she said that Technical had eminent experts discussing intervals can help us thrive in Textile is poised to be the tangible solutions and an ever-changing world. future of the Textile Industry actionable insights to accelerate • Technical Textile accounts for with target growth of 15-20pc the growth momentum for 13% of India’s total textile and to increase to 40-50 B USD by MSME’s. 2024. apparel market contributing • “Businesses never die, to 0.007% of India’s GDP. Stay safe Stay well Business models do. Be your Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 5
Knowledge UNION BUDGET 2021-2022 Agri-infra focus of Union Budget will exert long-term positive impact G. Chandrashekhar Economic Advisor, IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Director, IMC-ERTF The focus of the Union Budget To address the issue of water stress, and southern coast to be developed 2021-2022 is on healthcare, the Budget has doubled the micro- as hubs of economic activity. At the education & infrastructure. Despite irrigation fund to Rs 10,000 crore. same time, inland fishing will be robust economic growth, our social boosted with plans to develop inland India is among the world’s largest development indicators leave much to fishing harbours and fish landing producers of fruits and vegetables. be desired. So, higher outlay for and centres along the banks of rivers and The scope of Operation Green renewed emphasis on healthcare and waterways. which focused on tomato, onion education is welcome. With proper and potato is now extended to as India is the world’s second largest implementation, over time, our social many as 22 perishable products of producer and exporter of cotton. But conditions are sure to improve. horticulture. This is intended to we do import about 15-20 lakh bales To pare India’s infrastructure deficit, result in reduced wastage, higher of extra-long staple (ELS) varieties the outlay of Rs 5.54 lakh crore value addition, price stability and of cotton that are not grown in our will look to create assets like roads, improved price realisation for growers country in adequate quantities. To bridges, etc., ease transportation while strengthening the supply chain. discourage imports and encourage INSIGHT bottlenecks, create jobs and incomes domestic production, the Budget has The varying rates of basic customs as also utilize commodities such as imposed a 10 percent customs duty duty on import of a variety of cement, steel, copper and so on. on cotton import. vegetable oils and pulses have now The policy to scrap old vehicles been reduced and standardized. The This levy has no doubt upset the user will boost the automobile industry, basic customs duty will be 15% on all industry. But there is a silver lining. promote commodity consumption and vegetable oils and 10% on all pulses. There is now an opportunity for the help reduce vehicular pollution. This standardization will also help user industry to establish backward address objections raised at the WTO linkages and boost cultivation of ELS Agriculture and allied activities saw by supplier countries about India’s cotton domestically. The industry enhanced agricultural credit target, unstable customs duty regime. must work with farmer producer higher allocation for micro-irrigation, companies by using the contract focus on rural infrastructure To compensate for loss of revenue farming law. development and rationalization due to standardization of customs of customs duty on imports of duty at lower levels, a new levy All these budgetary provisions when specified commodities while levying called Agriculture Infrastructure read with the three agri-market a new agriculture infrastructure Development Cess is introduced. reform laws (contract farming, development cess on such imports. The fund created will boost agri- private markets and liberalization infrastructure. APMC mandis (usually of ECA) are expected to have a The agriculture credit target has under control of State governments) significant positive impact on the been enhanced by 10% to a new are eligible to access the fund for farm ecosystem. high of Rs 16.5 lakh crore for 2021- augmenting infrastructure facilities. 22 with focus on increasing credit Union Budget 2021-2022 is a Simultaneously, 1,000 more mandis flows to animal husbandry, dairy and pro-growth budget coming at a are to be integrated with e-NAM fisheries. Higher credit flow will help challenging time for the economy. (electronic national agricultural farmers access inputs in time and The key to success is implementation. market). boost output. The policymakers need It is critical New Delhi monitors to ensure that small and marginal The growth of the fisheries sector the implementation of the budget farmers are able to access and benefit has now been fast-tracked with five proposals and provides the nation from the enhanced credit availability. major fishing harbours on eastern periodic updates. Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 7
Knowledge India FY 2021/22 Union Budget: Bold spending plans underpinned by Shaky Funding Projections THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research. Key View The Indian central government Wide Deficit To Continue • We at Fitch Solutions forecast released its FY2021/22 (April – India - Central Government Fiscal India’s central fiscal deficit to March, FY22) Union Budget on Balance, % of GDP be 8.0% of GDP in FY2021/22 February 1 2021. Major expenditure (April – March, FY22), versus areas in FY22 remain on the government’s 6.8% infrastructure, healthcare, agriculture projection. and rural development. No major changes were announced on the COVER STORY • Infrastructure, healthcare, revenue front regarding direct tax agriculture, and rural rates. development were the main focus areas for government As we hold a less optimistic forecast expenditure in FY22. for real GDP growth in FY22 at 9.5%, against the government’s 11.0% e = Government Revised Estimates, • With no major changes to projection, this also informs our view f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: revenue-side measures, we for revenue collection to be less than Budget Documents, Fitch Solutions forecast revenues to come the government had projected for the in below the government’s fiscal year. Government Raining Cash On projections, given our real The Economy GDP growth forecast of 9.5% in As such, we at Fitch Solutions forecast the FY22 central The central government FY22, which is less optimistic deficit forecast to be 8.0% of budgeted expenditures for FY22 versus the government’s 11.0% GDP, versus the government’s at INR34.8trn, 0.9% above the expectation. 6.8% projection. Nevertheless, our FY21 revised estimate of INR34.5trn, • A likely shortfall in projected forecast does reflect our view for and effectively maintaining its high asset divestment receipts will revenue collection to pick up on the level of spending as per FY21 to push up the government’s back of an improvement in economic revive growth in the economy domestic market borrowing activity, this drives our view that the following the pandemic crisis. For above budgeted levels over the deficit will narrow compared to the context, fiscal expenditures in the coming quarters. government’s estimated shortfall of revised FY21 estimates were already 9.5% of GDP in FY22. 13.4% more than budget estimates • We forecast public debt to GDP to fall to 84.6% in FY22, On the whole, we think that high and 30% higher than actual FY20 from an estimated 86.7% in government spending in the FY22 levels. Our estimate for FY22 FY21, as a recover y in the budget will be very supportive of central government expenditure GDP level will offset a rise in growth although this also brings the is in line with the government net borrowing. risk of fueling inflationary pressures. at INR34.7trn. Key spending areas Reboot | Reform | Resurge 8 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge in FY22 remain in infrastructure Of which INR1.1trn will be capital financing of infrastructure investment (transport, urban, power), healthcare, expenditures for road transport and trusts and real estate investment e = Government Revised Estimates, f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Budget Documents, Fitch Solutions agriculture and rural development. highways. The government plans trusts by foreign portfolio investors. Government Raining Cash On The Economy to complete 11,000km of national No Change The central government budgeted expenditures for To FY22 atExpenditure INR34.8trn, 0.9% above the FY21 revised estimate of In other areas of infrastructure INR34.5trn, and effectively maintaining its high level of spending as per FY21 to revive growth in the economyhighway following corridors by March 2022. Focus the pandemic crisis. For context, fiscal expenditures Areas in the revised FY21 estimates were already 13.4% more than spending, the government has budget estimates and 30% higher than actual FY20 levels. Our estimate for FY22 central government expenditure Moreover,is it has also planned for in line with the government India – Budget at INR34.7trn. Key spendingExpenditures, % (transport, urban, areas in FY22 remain in infrastructure budgeted INR3trn over a five- power), healthcare, agriculture and rural development. additional economic corridors such Of Total year period to reform the power No Change To Expenditure Focus Areas as the 3500km National Highway India Ð Budget Expenditures, % Of Total distribution sector. Meanwhile, works in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and INR2trn has been budgeted over five West Bengal. In urban infrastructure, years for the government’s existing over 1000km of metro lines are under construction in 27 cities, with production-linked incentive scheme ongoing work on the Kochi Metro to improve the scale and size of key Railway, Chennai Metro Railway, economic sectors. Bengaluru Metro Railway, and the INR2.2trn will be allocated towards Nagpur Metro Railway. spending on health and wellbeing Source: Budget Documents, Fitch Solutions Outside budgetary support for capital in FY22, up 137% from the FY21 Source: Budget Documents, Infrastructure spending was a key focus of the government during the FY22 Union Budget. In particular, capital spending, the Ministry of Railways expenditure surged to INR5.54trn in the FY22 budget estimates, up 26% from INR4.39trn in the FY21 revised estimates. budget estimate of INR944bn. Of Fitch Solutions Transport and power were key areas identified for capital investment. will also spend INR1.0trn on existing which, INR746bn will be allocated Infrastructure spending was a key works on the Western Dedicated towards healthcare. The government focus of the government during the Freight Corridor (DFC), and Eastern will inject INR641bn over six years FY22 Union Budget. In particular, DFC, expected to be commissioned into a scheme to develop the capacity COVER STORY capital expenditure surged to by June 2022. The government of health systems, strengthen existing INR5.54trn in the FY22 budget will also set up a Development health institutions, and create new estimates, up 26% from INR4.39trn Financial Institution to support and institutions. Additionally, INR350bn in the FY21 revised estimates. manage long-term debt financing will be set aside for Covid-19 Transport and power were key areas for infrastructure projects, and vaccines, with the government ready identified for capital investment. will capitalise this institution with to provide more funds if required. A total of INR2.3trn has been INR200bn. Legislation reforms will Meanwhile, the government plans budgeted for transport spending. also be implemented to allow debt to achieve universal water supply Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 9
Knowledge shortfall in asset divestment receipts against budget projections would subsequently imply higher domestic market borrowing over and above the budgeted INR14.3trn to fund fiscal expenditures for FY22. While this theoretically implies an upward push on longer-dated bond yields, we think that the central bank will continue to intervene to cap long end yields, so as to avoid crowding out private sector borrowing. Set To Fall Slightly In FY22 coverage in all urban local bodies 11.0% projection. There were no India Ð Public Debt (Central And State), % of GDP and liquid waste management in all changes to direct tax rates nor Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and major announcements which would Urban Transformation (AMRUT) have a large impact on direct tax cities, with an outlay of INR2.8trn collections (accounting for 50% of over five years. gross tax revenue). Separately, the budget also announced plans to look Agriculture and rural development into and rationalise certain segments will see a combined expenditure of of custom duties come October 1 Source: Bloomberg, Fitch Solutions INR3.4trn in FY22. The government 2021. Source: Public Debt Levels To Improve Slightly Bloomberg, Fitch Solutions has increased the allocation for the We forecast public debt to GDP to fall to 84.6% in FY22, from an estimated 86.7% in FY21, as we expect a recovery in the Rural Infrastructure Development Public Debt L evels To Improve GDP level to offset the rise in net borrowing. Rising borrowing will inevitably raise the government’s interest burden, Divestments Likely To which the government projects to be 23% of expenditures in FY22, however, the central bank intervening to cap long- Fund to INR400bn, from INR300bn Slightly dated borrowing yields combined with the low interest environment will somewhat aid to slow the pace in which interest Underperform Projections burden rises. previously, as well as doubled the L ooking at how the government We forecast public debt to GDP to fall Micro Irrigation Fund to INR100bn. This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company In the plans are also investments to plans to finance its FY22 deficit, to 84.6% we number 08789939 registration ('FSG'). FSG in FY22, is an affiliate from of Fitch an Ratings Inc. estimated ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2021 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. © Fitch develop modern fishing harbours and believe that asset divestments areGroup Limited86.7% Solutions in FY21, as we expect a All rights reserved. seaweed cultivation. That said, the unlikely to come in as high as the recovery in the GDP level to offset government expects to wind down government’s INR1.7trn projection, the rise in net borrowing. Rising spending on a rural employment with our estimates at INR400bn, borrowing will inevitably raise the scheme to INR730bn in FY22 as somewhat similar to the average of government’s interest burden, which economic activity improves, from previous years. the government projects to be 23% INR1.1trn in the FY21 revised of expenditures in FY22, however, This is given persistent challenges estimates. the central bank intervening to cap faced by the government in finding COVER STORY long-dated borrowing yields combined buyers for its state assets. A Reforms And Banking Sector Aid shortfall in asset divestment receipts with the low interest environment Also Announced against budget projections would will somewhat aid to slow the pace in In the budget, the government also subsequently imply higher domestic which interest burden rises. announced that it would relax the market borrowing over and above the This report from Fitch Solutions foreign direct investment ownership budgeted INR14.3trn to fund fiscal Country Risk & Industry Research cap in the insurance sector to 74%, expenditures for FY22. While this is a product of Fitch Solutions from 49% previously, allowing foreign theoretically implies an upward push Group Ltd, UK Company registration players to have majority control in on longer-dated bond yields, we think number 08789939 (‘FSG’). FSG is an domestic insurance firms. Regarding that the central bank will continue affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. (‘Fitch the banking sector, public sector to intervene to cap long end yields, Ratings’). FSG is solely responsible banks will receive recapitalisation so as to avoid crowding out private for the content of this report, without of INR200bn, while an asset sector borrowing. any input from Fitch Ratings. reconstruction company will be set Copyright © 2021 Fitch Solutions Set To Fall Slightly In FY22 up to manage the toxic assets in the Group Limited. © Fitch Solutions India – Public Debt (Central And sector. INR15bn will also be allocated Group Limited All rights reserved. State), % of GDP towards the use of digital payments. Funding Projections Shaky The government projects revenue collection of INR17.8trn in FY22, which reflect its expectation for revenue to recover by 15% from INR15.5trn in FY21. By contrast, we are forecasting revenues of INR16.9trn in FY22, given our less optimistic real GDP growth forecast of 9.5% for the fiscal year versus the government’s Reboot | Reform | Resurge 10 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge Budget 2021-22: Enhanced focus on digitisation Geeta Ramrakhiani and Urvashi Agarwal The Finance Minister presented the (8) Procedural relaxations. (2) No deduction for delayed Union Budget 2021-22 on 1 February deposit of employee’s 2021. With massive investments (1) Slump exchange and contribution by the Indian government in depreciation on goodwill Currently, taxpayers claim digitisation of the tax processes, Slump exchange taxable employees’ contribution the future of tax compliances lies deposited after the due date in faceless tax compliances and Currently ‘slump sale’ is prescribed under the relevant assessments. The Government of defined to mean transfer of Acts, but before the filing of India is working towards introducing one or more undertakings as the return of income. However, dynamic jurisdiction to impart a result of sale for a lump this has been an area of greater efficiency, transparency and sum consideration without litigation and various High accountability, and to also eliminate values being assigned to the Courts have taken divergent human inter face to the extent individual assets and liabilities views in this regard. It is in such transactions. If the COVER STORY technologically feasible. proposed to clarify by insertion business was transferred for a While the central theme of the of an Explanation, stating that non-monetary consideration, Budget has been digitising most employee’s contribution which based on favourable judicial of the tax processes, extension of is deposited after the due date precedents an argument was some of the existing incentives was prescribed under the relevant taken that slump exchange is inevitable during these testing times. Acts, but before the due date not taxable. It is now proposed The Budget also proposed to ease of filing the return of income to amend the definition of out some compliance burden and is not allowable as a deduction, the term ‘slump sale’ so as rationalise certain provisions in order on the basis that the same has to include ‘slump exchange’ to avoid long drawn litigations. been deposited before the due within the term from date of filing the return of The key Budget proposals are assessment year (“AY”) 2021- income. While, the proposed classified into eight baskets as under: 22 and onwards. In view of Explanation indicates that the this, tax implications on the (1) Slump exchange and clarification is retrospective in proposed slump exchanges will depreciation on goodwill; nature but the Memorandum now need to be reviewed. explaining the provisions of (2) No deduction for delayed Goodwill not to be considered the Finance Bill states that deposit of employee’s as a depreciable asset the said amendment will apply contribution; from AY 2021-22 and onwards. Based on favourable tax (3) Tax incentives; rulings, taxpayers were able to (3) Tax incentives (4) Higher tax withholding for non- claim depreciation on acquired filers; goodwill as depreciation on Extending incentives for intangibles. It is proposed that affordable rental housing and (5) Tax deducted at source from AY 2021-22, depreciation start-ups (“TDS”) on purchase of goods; will no longer be available on The tax holiday period in (6) Widening the scope of future acquisitions as well relation to affordable housing equalisation levy (“EQL”); as on goodwill, appearing as developers has been extended (7) Reducing compliance life cycle; opening written down value in to 31 March 2022. Further, and the intangible asset block. affordable rental housing Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 11
Knowledge project (to be notified) will also from 1 July 2021 as under: credit for purchase of goods, eligible for 100% tax holiday. whichever is earlier. These Particulars TDS TCS provisions are not applicable Deduction towards interest A. At twice Higher Higher on – (i) transaction which on loan, taken for purchase the rate of A or of A or attracts TDS under other of affordable housing project specified in B or C B provisions of the Act, or (ii) is proposed to be extended in the relevant TCS under provisions, other respect of loans that may be provision of than TCS on sale of goods. sanctioned up to 31 March the Income- The specified buyer is the one 2022. tax Act, 1961 (“the Act”) whose sales, gross receipts or Capital gains exemption for turnover from business carried B. At the rate incentivising investment in on by him exceeds INR 100 of five percent start-ups will be extended to million during financial year C. At twice Not (“FY”) immediately preceding 31 March 2022. the rate or Appl the relevant FY . Exemption for Leave Travel rates in force icable Concession (“LTC ”) cash (6) Widening the scope of scheme EQL Specified person is defined to Cash allowance in lieu of LTC Finance Act, 2020 expanded mean: is proposed to be exempt, the scope of EQL provisions so subject to conditions (to be — A person who has not as to provide that non-resident prescribed). Some indicative filed return of income ecommerce operators are liable conditions are as follows: for two immediate years to pay EQL at the rate of 2% COVER STORY preceding the year in on consideration received or a) Employee exercises the which tax is required be receivable by an ‘ecommerce option for deemed LTC deducted/collected; operator’ from provision / fare in lieu of applicable facilitation of ‘e-commerce LTC for the 2018-2021 — Time limit to file return supply or services’. It is now block; of income under section proposed to clarif y the EQL b) Expenditure to be 139(1) of the Act, for provisions as under: incurred from 12 the aforementioned period has expired; and a) EQL will not apply October 2020 to 31 on consideration that March 2021 on goods or — Aggregate of TDS and is chargeable to tax services liable to GST at TCS exceeds INR as royalty or fees for 12% or above; 50,000 in each of the technical services under c) Amount of exemption two preceding years; the Act or tax treaties. shall not exceed lower A non-resident not having a b) EQL shall be applicable of - (i) INR 36,000 permanent establishment in on e-commerce supply per person; or (ii) India is specifically excluded. or services irrespective one-third of the above expenditure; of whether the (5) TDS on purchase of goods e-commerce operator d) Payment is through TCS is applicable on sale of owns the goods or banking channels. goods at the rate of 0.1% w.e.f. provides / facilitates the 1 October 2020. It is now services. (4) Higher tax withholding for proposed that w.e.f. 1 July c) Income subject to EQL non-filers 2021, TDS will be applicable will be exempt from To ensure filing of return on purchase of goods in excess income-tax from 1 April of income, higher TDS/Tax of INR 5 million, by a specified 2020 onwards. collected at source (“TCS”) buyer at the rate of 0.10% (5% rates are proposed in case of in case PAN is not furnished) d) Definition of the term specified persons with effect at the time of payment or “online sale of goods” Reboot | Reform | Resurge 12 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge and “online provision Proposed time limits for completion digital transactions and of services” is now of regular assessment as applicable also reduce compliance expanded to include one for AY 2020-21 and AY 2021-22 are burden. or more of the following as under: activities taking place Cases not online: referred to Cases refe- the Transfer (i) acceptance of offer AY Timeline prescribed rred to the Pricing for sale; TPO Officer (“TPO”) (ii) placing the purchase order; 2020-21 12 months from the end 31 March 31 March 2023 of the relevant AY plus 12 2022 (iii) acceptance of the months in cases which are purchase order; referred to the TPO 2021-22 9 months from the end of 31 December 31 December (iv) payment of the relevant AY plus 12 2022 2023 consideration; or months in cases referred to the TPO (v) supply of goods The timelines for reopening or provision of b) Income of foreign completed assessment or tax returns services, partly or institutional investors which have escaped assessments wholly. from securities will is proposed to be reduced from six COVER STORY years to three years, if the tax officer be subject to TDS at (7) Reducing compliance life the rate of 20% or is in possession of information which cycle relevant tax treaty rate, suggests that income chargeable to In view of the digitisation of tax has escaped assessment. The whichever is lower. tax processes, the due date for time-limit is proposed to be increased The role of the submission of tax returns are to 10 years in certain specified cases. government in digitising proposed to be reduced from the compliance and AY 2020-21 as under: (8) Procedural relaxations litigation procedures is Particulars Existing due Proposed a) The turnover threshold commendable. However, date due date for applicability of tax the process needs to be Belated return Last date of the T h r e e audit is now proposed evolved over the next relevant AY (i.e. m o n t h s Revised return 31 March) before the to be further enhanced few years. Till such end of the from INR 50 million time, taxpayers will have relevant AY (i.e.31 to INR 100 million to go through the mill. December) (i.e. Euro 0.56 million It is important that the The timelines for issuance of notices to Euro 1.13 million) challenges and hardships for assessments or processing of for the taxpayers who faced by the taxpayers income tax returns are also proposed carry out 95% of their in the implementation to be reduced by three months. transactions digitally, of digital compliances Revised time limits are as under: in order to incentivise is addressed in a timely and efficient manner. Particulars Existing due date Proposed due date Time-limit to process 31 March (i.e. 1 year 31 December (i.e. 9 months Information for the editor for tax returns from the end of the from the end of the relevant reference purposes only relevant AY) AY) Geeta Ramrakhiani is Director with Notice for selection of 6 months from the 3 months from the end of Deloitte Haskins and Sells LLP and a case for assessment end of the relevant AY the relevant AY (i.e. 30 June) Urvashi Agarwal is Deputy Manager (i.e. 30 September) with Deloitte Haskins and Sells LLP Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 13
Knowledge Does the budget have the Midas touch? Let us see through the Fog with Insight and Clarity in this recovery of a Century Anirudh Gupta CEO & Certified Corporate Director (Institute of Directors) Ashiana Financial Services Does the budget have the Midas below. 0.50 % depending on the quality of touch? Let us see through the Fog What do you expect from the the paper in the 2-5 year Category. with Insight and Clarity in this Budget? The only silver lining is Oil is in a recovery of a Century. range acceptable to India’s long term Lower Taxes – 30% The Budget is a statement of intent. interests, however as the commodity Better Long term direction – 30% cycle is picking up, it needs to be It also shows on what priorities the country’s finances are focused Relief for the needy – 10% watched. This in the past has led to on. This budget rightly focuses on Better policy making – 30% earnings upgrade especially with the creation of a stronger health care Infrastructure theme being supported Basis this as there is no system and doubles the pace on in a big way by the government. enhancement of tax slabs our infrastructure creation particularly research team rates it a 7 out of 10. Every budget leads to creation of an roadways and also strives to look at opportunity or a change in policy If you are looking at markets from which leads to creation of that correcting the imbalances in the COVER STORY a business exit point of view then opportunity. Let us examine the key power sector. The government rightly maybe you need to keep the tax elements which can have a multiplier so has considered a good choice of considerations in mind and you effect creating assets and is leading from may need specialized advice there. the front which has been indicated However for most part of it all the 1. Bank Recapitalization: in a conscious stance to increase the tax rules continue to be the same PSU Banks have been merged fiscal deficit to 6.5% of GDP for the for long term and short term capital with the consequence that most of coming year and a strong medium gains across asset classes. the bad loans have been provided for. term approach for asset creation. Since we have strong reserves this is Is there any change? There could be some opportunities not likely to impact us as a Country No, not as far as the critical decisions as an Investor from a tactical point if things go wrong. go. of view. That said most of the PSU banks are not as well run on return More importantly it also looks at A question which comes to mind is ratios as they could be. Therefore we creating a development financial how will this be funded? recommend them selectively on a institution which would have an One way is disinvestment wherein case to case basis. overall book of 20000 crores with 10 heavy weights like LIC and BPCL times the ability to leverage deposits. are likely to hit the markets next 2. NBFC Funding: This is particularly important as financial year. Also 2 Public sector The funding has increased we seek to emerge out of China’s banks and 1 general insurer will be from 7 lakh crores to 8 lakh crores in influence in Asia. privatized. Also the vivad se vishwas the last quarter. This is important as For the bygones in the stressed asset scheme is gaining traction and has many companies are not qualified to space an asset management company already collected close to 1 lakh take a loan from mainstream banks. approach is advised which is similar crore.It is also being extended till They rely on NBFC’s for funding to a bad bank approach. These are Feb 28, therefore a possibility of gaps. This apart from the government good ideas if done for a limited time higher numbers happening would support is likely to grow as most frame as it can create a negative help in meeting the enhanced Capital people have parked their savings in impact on accountability related expenditure numbers. deposits last year from a safety view issues and create a conflict of interest This already is showing some and Banks will have a higher capacity issue within Public Sector Banks. strain on government finances and to lend. That said the capex cycle is Our team did a poll on LinkedIn on the result is increase in interest not expected to start before March prebudget expectations with a 1000 rates by 0.20% in the short term 2023 which implies that Banks may plus views, the result we are sharing categor y (upto 2 years) & 0.40- lend to NBFC ’s a bit more. This Reboot | Reform | Resurge 14 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge is so as earlier Banks have burnt utility oriented sector it is a cashcow, Alternatively one could look at their hands in infrastructure related however till the ground level issues Zero Coupon Bonds which have a lending wherein they are likely to are sorted this does not appear to be similar taxation effect. fund housing and other relatively investment worthy. sure and safe bets. 3. Real Estate 8. Defence As per numerous studies 3. Affordable Housing In this sector orders are conducted on the sector from time to The tax holiday has been slower to be executed. Also there time the oversupply for Residential extended by one year to March are a couple of companies which housing is in the region of 36-60 2022.Investment in housing has operate at scale in this sector. Since months depending on micro market. a multiplier effect of 8 from an as an opportunity it is large, most likely weapons will be procured Considering the fact one needs employment perspective. This is from outside India as in many areas to look at it selectively and are likely likely to address the employment gap to some degree. Depending upon we lack technology and technology in the region of 8-12% gross returns fulfillment for housing for all targets transfers come at a steep price basis commodity price rise over a laid down by the concerned ministry, considering the not so successful period of time. the extension may happen. Joint Venture Model in this sector over the years. 4. Alternate Assets 4. Agriculture Alternate assets like Hedge 9. Railways funds can be considered from a cash Agricultural credit target set by the Finance Ministry is 16.5 lakh The FM has been generous flow perspective. crores.This is aimed towards animal in allocations. That said Railways Any areas in which one may husbandry, dairies and fisheries. This is more of a social enterprise need to plan differently? is likely to provide stimulus to the considering the operating ratios published by the Government from Two major pointers come to COVER STORY economy going forward. In the listed time to time. mind space opportunities are relatively less, however it does affect the broader Given all this what are the options 1. PF: If the PF is above markets. from an Investment perspective? 250000 per annum, the amount above that will 5. Infrastructure 1. Equity/Equity Oriented be taxed for interest opportunities Zero Coupon Bonds in income. Infrastructure Investment Trusts India is a good long term One of our clients would be good opportunity from an opportunity and needs to be thought pays 6 lakhs in PF per investment point of view. These are on those lines. Next Ten-fifteen years annum.3.5 lakhs is also efficient from a taxation point of are critical from a growth point of view for India. additional. view. Considering the need for funds for the sector this is a good move. To become a developed nation The interest earned on the government is taking all steps 3.5 lakhs will attract 6. Roadways and we are on our way to build taxation as per your tax Despite a tough covid situation growth over a period of time on the slab. 3800 kms of roadways has been back of strong infrastructure spends 2. ULIP’s: Unit Linked constructed so far for the year. and consumption which increases Insurance plans as Another 11000 kms are likely to be over a period of time as connectivity they are called will not completed by March 2022.Cement increases. have a tax free status companies with lower utilization We can look forward to the if premium is above levels may be looked at from a next decade for a double digit returns 2.5 lakhs to bring medium term point of view. from a markets standpoint. parity between Mutual Funds and Insurance 7. Power 2. Debt Funds companies. A revamped reforms-based Commodity prices and a stretch at the fiscal deficit are Therefore any ULIP’s result-linked power distribution sector likely to create conditions of higher purchased after 1.2.2021 need to scheme will be launched with an outlay of `3, 05, 984 crores over inflation. This is likely to result in be planned on this basis. It is not 5 years to consider viability. This higher interest rates over a period of applicable to older policies. is likely to bring the next level of time. A return of 7-7.5% on a post That said, it depends on policy accountability for a critical sector tax basis can be expected over a 3 execution on the ground. May we for the country’s progress. Being a year period. choose wisely. Reboot | Reform | Resurge IMC Journal n January-February 2021 15
Knowledge Budget 2021 – Setting the Pace for a Resilient V-shaped Trajectory CA Minita Khanchandani The world has endured a year of the The Union Budget 2021-22 was companies and asset management unexpected onslaught by COVID-19 founded on the 6 pillars – companies would takeover stressed virus. The virus has posed an assets and manage them to later on 1) Health and Well-being; unprecedented challenge for policy dispose them to potential buyers. making, globally and nationally. It has 2) Physical and Financial Capital; While the concept of bad banks by tested the mettle of policymakers to itself is not new, it is expected to deal with uncertain, fluid, complex 3) Inclusive Development for strike a chord specially in this Covid- and dynamic situations having far- Aspirational India; ridden environment wherein the reaching socio-economic implications. 4) Reinvigorating Human Capital; NPAs are likely to go up. It has also tested the frontiers of medical science, which rose to the 5) Innovation and R&D; and A number of initiatives on the challenge by developing an effective corporate law from such as 6) Minimum Government and strengthening the NCLT regime, vaccine within a year. Maximum Governance. widening the ambit for small India has far exceeded its fiscal companies, incentivizing one person With real estate and infrastructure deficit target due to higher spending companies and permitting non- TAX CORNER being the critical economic engines to stimulate the economy amidst the residents to set up foreign companies of the Indian Economy, the present pandemic and has budget the deficit emphasis on providing an impetus in India are also on the cards. at 6.8% of GDP for 2021-22. While to infrastructure is quite the Decriminalisation of the LLP Act, the net tax revenues are expected to highlight. Furthermore, unveiling introduction of alternate methods for grow at ~14%, the said revenues are the disinvestment strategy by the debt resolution as well as introduction not expected out of increase in taxes government, the anticipated capital of a special framework for MSMEs is or surcharges, as was anticipated. inflows are to be on account of the also on the cards. Further, for curbing the fiscal deficit, much awaited LIC IPO coupled with in addition to the capital receipts Moving on from the macro to the the privatization of various public of ` 1.75 lakh crores expected from micro front, the key tax proposals sector banks as well as certain PSUs. disinvestment proceeds of several were as follows: public sector undertakings, significant Bringing in certain regulator y borrowings (about 15 lakh crores) liberalisation so as to amp up the Impetus to affordable housing are budgeted to be raised, thereby ease of doing business scenario under “Housing for All” increasing the GDP to borrowing in India was again one of the • In order to incentivize ratio. noteworthy features. Consolidating affordable housing, make the securities’ laws into a unified available low cost funds to Against this backdrop, the Finance code would address various home buyers and to boost the Minister presented the Union Budget interpretational challenges amongst ‘Housing for All’ incentive by for the year 2021-22 these regulations. Suggesting a the Government, the Finance permanent institutional framework Act, 2020 had introduced a so as to mobilise the corporate bond Section 80EEA wherein market wherein retail investors can a deduction of up to INR participate in such issues. Raising 1,50,000 shall be available the investment limit for foreign incase of a house property investments in the insurance sector the stamp duty value of which has also garnered positive responses. does not exceed INR 45 Lakhs Another upcoming feature is the ‘bad and the time period for the banks’ wherein asset reconstruction sanction of the loan should be Reboot | Reform | Resurge 16 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
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