Transition till 2030 2050 - transition to renewable energy in the EU - countries - Energia sostenible
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A just and democratic
transition to renewable energy
Transition till 2030 – 2050
in the EU – countries
- The INFORSE Visions
Gunnar Boye Olesen, International Network for
Sustainable Energy (INFORSE-Europe)
Seminar, Barcelona,
13. September 2010
- European network of 75 NGOs working for renewable energy and energy efficiency Active on EU policies, sustainable energy, visions/ scenarios, sustainable energy education, etc Work on global climate and energy issues with INFORSE members in other continents, e.g. climate negotiations Supported by EU – DG Environment, members and others
The INFORSE Vision
• Phase out fossil fuel and nuclear power
• Provide everybody with basic energy needs, also
the 1 billion that lack basic clean energy for
cooking and light today
INFORSE Sustainable Energy Visions
Global Vision
Vision for EU-27
Bulgaria
Denmark
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Slovakia
UK Zero Carbon Britain
Belarus
Russia
Ukraine
We need to limit global climate change
to 2'C (or better 1.5'C)
Only than can we avoid catastrophes for nature and
humanity
In spite of recent press there has been very broad
scientific consensus on this for several years
It is expressed in the IPCC 4th
Assessment report (2007) and
stronger emphasized in later studies
A quick look at climate science:
Climate Sensitivity:
How much will global temperature increase
with a doubling of atmospheric greenhouse
gases?
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/mmalte
The risk of exceed 2'C global warming – depending on CO2 emissions 2000 – 2049 (The Climate Budget)
EU's Challenges in a Global Development Rights Framework http://www.ecoequity.org
The Global Vision – Enough
Renewables for 9 billion people if we
use it efficiently
Prof. Bent Sørensen, 100% Renewable Energy
Scenario, Low Energy Consumption Scen. 1999Energy Services per capita
Industrialisedcountries Developingcountries.
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000 Transport
4000 El.+mechanical
3000 Medium+hight.
2000 Lowtemp.
1000
0
2000 2050 2000 2050Primary Energy (TWh/y)
Industrialisedcountries Developing countries
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 Nuclear
20000 Fossil
15000 Biomass
10000 Hydro
5000 Solar
0 Wind
2000 2050 2000 2050EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision - Above 95% reduction by 2050 (98%), - Fast application of known solutions to 2020 and 2030 - Sustainability issues addressed (biomass, biofuels) - No net import or export over longer periods
Energy Service Developments
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Demand side:
¾ Modest increase in energy services (sufficiency/sust.)
¾ Less road transport in EU-15 (sufficiency,
environm.)
¾ Large increase in energy efficiency, factor 4 in end-
use
sectors when possible until 2050
¾ Transition to electric and hydrogen transport, ~95%Energy Efficiency Increases
¾ ►Ecodesign, EU will drive efficiency of many
products until 2020, and with updates until 2030
and beyond
¾ ►Factor 4 for personal cars, industry, until 2050
¾ ►55% for space heating, until 2050
¾ ►40% for railways, 60% for road freight until 2050How the energy efficiency looks like
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Supply side:
¾ Efficient energy supply with combined heat and
power(CHP), smarter and more efficient grids
¾ Rapid development of renewable energy
¾ Phase out of nuclear until 2025 (end of lifetime), no
CCSRenewable Energy Supply - EU27
Renewable Energy Supply, EU27
20 000
18 000
Solar PV
16 000
Solar heat
14 000
12 000 Windpower
10 000
Biogas
PJ
Bio-fuel, liquid
8 000 Energy Forest
6 000
4 000
Biomass
2000
2 000 Geothermal
0
Hydro
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Electricity
Electricity Divided in Supply, EU-27
12 000
Nuclear
10 000
Import
8 000 Fossils
Solar PV
PJ
6 000
4 000 Wind
2 000 Biomass
Hydro
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Primary Energy
Total Primary Energy Supply, EU-27
70 000
Nuclear
60 000
50 000
PJ (thousands)
40 000 Natural gas
30 000
Oil products
20 000
Coal & waste
10 000 Biomass
25%
Other RE
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050EU CO2 emissions from energy - mill. tons
INFORSE Vision
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500 EU15
2.000 EU12
1.500
1.000
500
0
2.000 2.010 2.020 2.030 2.040 2.050Will the EU Biomass Use be
Sustainable?
EU-27 Biomass potential/use 2050 (PJ)
16000
14000
12000
Solid e ne rgy crops
10000 Biofue ls/crops
Bioga s
8000 Stra w
Old tim be r/wa ste
Industria l wood re sidue s
6000
Wood/biom a ss
4000
2000
0
INFORSE EEA2020* FoE/SEI-m itiga tion'50
White Pa pe r'10* INFORSE-DK** EREC2050
* EU-15 figures up-scaled with 20% to EU-27
** DK figures up-scaled with population ratio to EU-27Why no nuclear?
Not a safe energy source, lifetime extension increases
safety problems
Waste problems not solved (not even in Sweden)
Expensive, new nuclear more costlier than alternatives
Inflexible
Power prices, new plants, present fuel prices, Latvia
120
100
80
60
40
Carbon price
Fuel costs
€/MWh
20
O&M
0 Investment
Wood-CHP-medium
Gas CHP
Bio-CHP-large
Coal CHP-large
Gas CC-CHP-large
Coal-large, el-only
Biogas
Windpower
Nuclear
Wood-CHP-small
Straw-CHP-smallVision for Denmark (OVE) 2030 ¾ Strong growth in windpower, sust. biomass ¾ Reduce specific building consumption 39% to '30 ¾ Reduce specific electricity use, industry 42% to '30 ¾ Flexible energy: district heating, heat pumps, electric cars and hydrogen ¾ Sustainable transport system, 80% more efficient ¾No new international power lines
Danish Primary Energy Demand
Danish
Primary Energy Supply
900
800
700
Coal & Waste
600 Oil
Natural Gas
500
Ambient via heat pumps
PJ
400 Wind, Solar, Waves
Biomass
300
200
100
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035District Heating = 70% of Heat
District Heat Supply, Denmark (PJ)
140
120
Heat pumps
100 Solar heating
Geotermi
Bio-CHP
80
Bio-heat
Waste
60 Gas-CHP
Gas-heat
40 Coal+oil-CHP
Coal+oil-heat
20
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035DK CO2 emissions from energy • In total 2 t/capita per year in average 2010 – 2049 = sustainable level
DK System in balance in 2030 z Hourly balances made with Energy Plan programme z 1% unused windpower z Existing import/ export lines RES12 = Wind RE34 = wave+PV CHP incl. geothermal
Costs
Costs calculated based on Danish national price
forecasts, standard and high fossil fuel prices,
Price for entire Danish energy supply system in 2030
Costs in 2030, DK Energy Vision and basis, 3% interest Costs in 2030, DK Energy Vision and basis, 6% interest
90 100
80 90
70 Efficiency In- 80 Efficiency
vestments & in- 70 Investments
60
terest 60 & interest
Billion DKK/year
Billion DKK/year
50
External 50 External
40 el.trade el.trade
40
30 Investment&int Investment&in
30
20 erests terests
20
O&M O&M
10 10
Fuel Fuel
0 0
Vision Basis Basis,high- Vision Basis Basis,hig
fossil- h-fossil-
prices pricesIn Conclusion
Europe can move to 100% renewables,
with energy efficiency and reduced/no
growth in energy services
In Denmark a fast transition can pay.
We need to change!
What about Catalunya?Thank you See www.inforse.org/europe
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