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THE WEEKLY UPDATE
Week 8, 2022
Mar 1, 2022
Sponsored by
Market Update
New crypto narratives are spinning up as the war in Ukraine
1
escalates. Bitcoin has seen a sharp recovery in the last week
and saw a 14.5% price increase on Monday – its largest daily Cryptocurrency Donations to Ukraine*
gain since February 8th, 2021.
$24m
Russian and Ukrainian trade volumes are soaring at the
moment, as the USDTRUB pair reached new all-time highs
yesterday and Ukrainian BTC volumes see a sharp increase.
$20m
Directionally the stock market and BTC moved in lockstep last
week as the Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated. Meanwhile,
gold saw strength.
Valuation
$16m
2 After a sharp recovery yesterday, bitcoin has returned to its
$40-44k trading range.
$12m
The annualized basis on Binance has now fallen below CME’s
basis for the first time since November 2020, as premiums now
align across all exchanges. The 3mth annualized futures basis
on Binance reached its lowest 24hr average level in history on
Monday of 1.17%. $8m
Funding rates are in its third consecutive month in a neutral to
below neutral regime.
$4m
Blockchain Activity
3 All red on-chain. Miner revenues plummet, and transaction fees
are now at the lowest point in one-and-a-half years. $0m
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb 1 Mar
Thousands of people globally are donating millions worth of
cryptocurrencies to support Ukraine. Have we underestimated Ukrainian Government Come Back Alive NGO
the power of using cryptocurrencies for fundraising?
Source: Elliptic.co *Cumulative donations
Sponsored by
THE NEWSROOM
Crypto Donations to Ukraine Jump ECB Wants Quick Action on Crypto South African Exchange Raises $50M
to $20M Regulation Following Russian in Africa’s Largest Funding Round
Sanctions
Speaking to the press following a meeting of the South African crypto exchange VALR has raised $50
The Ukraine government’s call for donations to million in a Series B equity funding round, marking
EU's Economic and Financial Affairs Council, ECB
resist the Russian invasion and provide aid to the largest-ever funding for an African crypto
President Christine Lagarde says it's "critically
those affected has been embraced by the crypto exchange. With this latest round of funding, VALR’s
important" for the so-called MiCA legislation to be
community with nearly $20 million raised in ether valuation has increased to $240 million, a 10X in
pushed through as soon as possible. While there's
and bitcoin. On Monday, Binance announced it growth since it raised its $3.4 million in a Series A
been lots of speculation on how Russia might make
would donate $10 million crypto to the effort and round in July 2020. This round was led by VC
use of cryptocurrency networks to assist in evading
launched a crowdfunding portal to encourage its Pantera Capital, Alameda Research, Coinbase
stringent financial sanctions imposed by the EU and
users to donate more. Ventures, and several others.
U.S., many legal and blockchain experts aren't
convinced it's possible.
Mar 1, 2022 3
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New narratives born for crypto?
New crypto narratives are spinning up as the war in Ukraine escalates. Bitcoin Correlation:
Cryptocurrencies serve as powerful fundraising tools for Ukraine (slide 20). At the
same time, the demand for crypto may increase as both the western block and
90-day correlation
(weekly change included) ETH GOLD S&P500
Russia introduce the strictest capital controls in decades (slide 8 and slide 9).
BTC 0.880 0.004 -0.200 -0.120 0.485 -0.001
Investors are speculating that crypto will become increasingly important as Source: CoinMetrics
apolitical and trustless money in a time of escalating geopolitical uncertainty,
conflict, and capital controls. This speculation may have contributed to the 15%
increase in the bitcoin price over the past seven days. Top 3 by Market Cap: Percentage Change in Price Over the Last Week
Gold has historically fared well in times of increasing conflict but has not
15% BTC 15% $43,518
experienced nearly the same gains as bitcoin over the past few days, being
significantly negatively correlated to bitcoin. BNB 13% $415
Correlations between the different cryptocurrencies continue to be elevated, as 10% ETH 13% $2,925
BNB and ETH follow bitcoin and are both up 13% over the past seven days.
Bitcoin’s meteoric rise on February 28th lifted all crypto boats, and OKB is the 5%
only coin of the top 50 by market cap that is down over the past seven days.
0%
Last week of top 50 by market capitalization
Best Performing Price Last week Last month YTD
Terra 88.81 76.7% 74.5% -3%
-5%
Cosmos 31.71 33.1% 8.5% -12%
Avalanche 87.40 24.8% 21.0% -24%
Worst Performing Price Last week Last month YTD -10%
OKB 18.07 -0.3% -13.5% -38% 22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb 1 Mar
LEO Token 6.03 2.8% 72.7% 59%
TRON 0.06 3.2% 2.3% -19% BTC ETH BNB
Source: CoinGecko, messari.io Source: Tradingview (Coinbase)
Mar 1, 2022 4
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Bitcoin wins the fearful February
Percentage of Total Market Capitalization
BTC ETH USDT BNB USDC XRP LUNA ADA SOL AVAX
Market
43.02% 18.23% 4.16% 3.54% 2.79% 1.93% 1.75% 1.70% 1.61% 1.11%
Share
Weekly
0.83% 0.00% -0.64% -0.02% -0.39% -0.05% 0.60% 0.01% 0.02% 0.08%
Change
Source: Coinmarketcap.com
Bitcoin beats all the crypto indexes in February - a month filled with
geopolitical uncertainty.
Monthly Performance of Market Cap-Weighted Indexes
Bitcoin is the best performer in February with a 12% gain in its first 20%
month of positive performance since October.
15%
Behind bitcoin follows the Large Cap Index with a 9% gain. The Medium 12%
Cap and Small Cap indexes both end February where they started. 10%
9%
5%
February was an extraordinary month for crypto. The month started with 0%
growing prices, but in the middle of the month, the market turned sour 0%
as the fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine grew. When Russia invaded 0%
on February 24th, the crypto market turned around and started growing.
-5%
After bitcoin's recent outperformance, the bitcoin dominance is now -10%
43%, significantly up from the bottom of 39.3% in the middle of January.
-15%
-20%
1 Feb 4 Feb 7 Feb 10 Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Feb
Bitcoin Large Mid Small
Source: Bletchleyindexes.com
Mar 1, 2022 5
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Fear and greed index back to neutral
The Fear and Greed Index suddenly entered neutral territory after staying in the "extreme fear" area for most of 2022. One of the reasons the crypto market remained in a prolonged fearful
state was geopolitical uncertainty related to the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. As the attack unfolds, investors seem to have changed their opinions on how increased geopolitical
uncertainty and conflicts may affect the crypto market (slide 4).
Fear & Greed Index
Extreme Greed
51
51
Now Last week Last month
Extreme Fear Extreme Fear
Greed (51) Fear (26)
(20)
Source: Alternative.me, NYDIG
Mar 1, 2022 6
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Highest daily bitcoin trading volume since December
The real bitcoin trading volume* pushed above $10 billion last Thursday when Russia invaded Ukraine. This was the highest volume seen since December 4th, and Monday also saw high
trading volumes. The market seems to be waking up after a dozy February.
Real BTC Daily Volume* (7-day average)
$20b
$18b
$16b
$14b
$12b
$10b
$8b
$6b
$4b
$2b
$0b
Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 22 Feb 22
Source: Skew, Tradingview (Binance, Binance US, Bitfinex) *Includes Bitwise 10 exchanges, LMAX, FTX.
Mar 1, 2022 7Sponsored by
Volumes in the Russian ruble soaring
On February 28th, we saw a massive volume increase in the ruble pairs on Binance, particularly in USDT, as the USDTRUB volume reached a new all-time high of $35 million. The bitcoin
volume also saw a substantial rise. These volume increases could indicate that Russians seek stablecoins to get dollar exposure ahead of possible sanctions directed towards Russian
crypto traders. However, the rising volumes could also be caused by market makers seeking to eliminate their ruble exposure. As explained in the next slide, Ukrainians are also seeking
crypto exposure in these uncertain times.
Binance: Daily Volume USDTRUB Binance: Daily Volume BTCRUB
$40m $30m
May 19th, 2021 Feb 28th, 2022
$35m $34.31m $34.94m
$25m
$30m
$20m
$25m
$20m $15m
$15m
$10m
$10m
$5m
$5m
$0m $0m
Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 1 Jan 8 Jan 15 Jan 22 Jan 29 Jan 5 Feb 12 Feb 19 Feb 26 Feb
Source: Tradingview (Binance) Source: Tradingview (Binance)
Mar 1, 2022 8Sponsored by
Ukrainians are buying crypto as never before
Like the Russians (previous slide), Ukrainians are also buying crypto as never before, as both the USDTUAH and BTCUAH pairs on Binance see enormous increases in trading volume.
Many Ukrainians worry that the banking system in the country may collapse and are seeking to crypto as a safe haven for their savings. In addition, by exchanging their liquid assets for
crypto, Ukrainians can escape the country and bring some of their wealth with them, just like described by this Ukrainian refugee in Bitcoin Magazine.
Binance: Daily Volume USDTUAH Binance: Daily Volume BTCUAH
$10m $3.5m
$3.0m
$8m
$2.5m
$6m
$2.0m
$1.5m
$4m
$1.0m
$2m
$0.5m
$0m $0.0m
1 Jan 8 Jan 15 Jan 22 Jan 29 Jan 5 Feb 12 Feb 19 Feb 26 Feb 1 Jan 8 Jan 15 Jan 22 Jan 29 Jan 5 Feb 12 Feb 19 Feb 26 Feb
Source: Tradingview (Binance) Source: Tradingview (Binance)
Mar 1, 2022 9Sponsored by
Bitcoin’s largest daily percentage gain in one year
On Monday, the bitcoin price increased 14.5%. This daily price increase was the largest since February 8th, 2021, when Elon Musk announced that Tesla had bought $1.5
billion in bitcoin. It made the 7-day volatility shoot up to 5.4%, which is the highest level since June 2021 – once again proving that bitcoin often behaves opposite of the rest
of the financial markets concerning volatility, as upwards price movements often cause the most significant volatility spikes.
BTC-USD Volatility
Daily Return 30-Day Volatility 7-Day Volatility
20%
15%
10%
5.4%
5%
4.2%
0%
-5%
-10%
Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 Mar 22
Source: Tradingview (Coinbase)
Mar 1, 2022 10Sponsored by
Last week saw gold behave as a safe haven asset vs BTC and indexes
Last week: Gold vs BTC vs Global indexes
6%
Directionally the stock market and BTC moved in lockstep last
week as the Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated. Meanwhile, 4%
gold saw strength.
2%
Bitcoin has followed the stock market closely for a long while,
evident by the 60-day correlation reaching new all-time highs
recently. 0%
Last week’s market was no exception, with both bitcoin and various -2%
stock indexes seeing a sharp correction on Thursday amid the
invasion before recovering on Friday.
-4%
Meanwhile, gold showed clear tendencies of behaving as a safe
haven asset as fear soared in the markets, evident by gold’s -6%
Thursday rally. In other words, gold behaved just as investors
expect it to do.
-8%
Since 2008, Russia has accumulated gold heavily, increasing its
gold reserves from 450 tonnes to 2,200 tonnes. As more sanctions -10%
reach Russia, the long-term implications for gold could be
interesting to follow, with a potential scenario being Russia seeking
to use gold for barter. S&P 500 DE40 UK 100 BTC Gold
-12%
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Source: Tradingview
Mar 1, 2022 11Sponsored by
An overview of the Web3 landscape
We are working on an article series on Web3, explaining
what Web3 is and why you should care. You can read the The Web3 Landscape
first article of the series here. Social networks Publishing Music
TV shows
Curated marketplaces
Showtime Zero Bitclout Superlocal Yup Mirror Sigle Known Origin SuperRare Foundation
Catalog Royal Sound Vezt Mad Realities
Islands Sapiency RSS3 Akasha Momento RDCRDSHP OneOf Aok1verse Artpool Nifty Gateway MakersPlace
Web3 is a model of decentralized networks where
Cortex
Stoner Cats
Discovery
participants: 1. can interact without an institution; 2. are in
Orbis Solcial Steemit Wall ShowMe Melodity Audius Emanate Open marketplaces
Talent Video platforms
total control over central aspects of their digital identity,
Station Braintrust OpenSea Rarible Solsea
Communication Soundmint Nina Yellowheart Beam Glass
Film & TV
including their underlying encryption keys; 3. control how
Pravica Status Secretum Ritestream Pallet Underdog LooksRare Mintable Cargo
Fashion
their credentials and personal data is shared/used. ComingChat Session Vabble The Fabricant DIGITALAX Artisant RTFKT UNXD.
Productivity Native marketplaces
MessageParty Alter Hollywoodao Blocksurvey Cal.com The Dematerialized Stylexchange NBA Top Shot LarvaLabs
DRESSX Neuno
The current version of the internet, Web2, has concentrated
Ecosystems Building tools Domains Payments Community management
power among a few companies who decide which users get
Ethereum Stacks Secret Flow Hive Project Galaxy Zora Moralis Celestia Unstoppable ENS Suberra Kask Agora Beyond
network access and how these users’ data is secured. DeSo Near Solana Theta Avalanche Streamr Verida Golem Biconomy Handshake RNS Alice Cask Snapshot Juicebox
Infrastructure
Polygon Helium Cosmos Lukso Polkadot Cardstack Ceramic Gitcoin Butterfly Utrust DePay Unlock UniPass Glow
Storage Identity Privacy protocols Wallets Token gating Browsers Social graphs
The big promise of Web3 can be summarized in a single Arweave Swarm SpruceID IDX Civic Aleo Ruby Metamask Argent MintGate CharmVerse Brave CyberConnect
concept: user-control. A decentralized successor to the Filecoin Storj Ryder Jolocom NyCypher NYM Rainbow Trust wallet Rally FWB Gatekeeper POAP Opera Lens Protocol
current internet is being built. Sia BitTorrent Profile BrightID Panther Anoma Coinbase wallet Collab.Land Bonfire Coinvise Beaker Mem Protocol
Virtual worlds Custom spaces Play-to-earn Move-to-earn
The map on the right highlights a mere fraction of what Decentraland Nifty Island OVR Bloktopia Netvrk Spatial Arium Portals Genopets
Web3 has to offer, spanning everything from career
Axie Infinity Enjin AlienWorlds DeFi Kingdoms
Cryptovoxels Bullieverse Wilder World Monaverse RareRooms Stepn
Experience
The Sandbox
platforms to collaborative music platforms to decentralized
Cometh Gaia Everworld Aurory Gods Unchained
Somnium Space Everdome NFT Worlds Dvision Network Cyber Space Sports
credentials and reimagined versions of social media. Commerce Physical spaces AR Avatars
Cryptotanks Wonderhero Dalarnia Mobox
Sorare
Illuvium Gala Games BattleVerse Illuvium
Clytie Metamall ClubRare Digital Art Fair Xone Ready Player Me ZED
Osiris Splinterlands Space Misfits REVV Racing
Stay tuned for more articles in the series, where we will dive
Highstreet Walmeta ALTAVA Crypto Portal Illust.space Genies Delta Time
deeper into all the different sectors illustrated on the map.
The overview is not all-inclusive
Mar 1, 2022 12Sponsored by
VALUATION
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Bitcoin revisits the 40-44k range for the third time in 2022
After a sharp recovery yesterday, bitcoin has
returned to its $40-44k trading range.
Bitcoin tested its $40,000 support throughout
the weekend and followed up with a convincing
breakthrough yesterday.
As was the case during the early February rally,
bitcoin has found resistance at $44,000. This is
an important resistance level, and bitcoin has
yet to convincingly break the $44,000 resistance
since its early January sell-off.
If the third time is the charm, and bitcoin
manages to breach through the $44,000
resistance, $47,000 is the next resistance area to
pay attention to.
Towards the downside, the $40,000 resistance
has again been flipped and may now act as
support, with further support found in the $36-
38k range.
Source: Tradingview, Coinbase
Mar 1, 2022 14Sponsored by
CME’s basis above Binance for the first time since November 2020
Bitcoin Futures Annualized Rolling 3-Month Basis
The annualized basis on Binance has now fallen below CME’s
basis for the first time since November 2020, as premiums now
align across all exchanges. 12%
Last week’s volatile environment is reflected in the futures basis, 10%
and yesterday we saw the first substantial basis recovery in the
market since Jan 26th as the futures premiums climbed amid
bitcoin’s strength.
8%
However, the basis remains at unusually low levels, and
yesterday, Binance’s 24hr average basis reached an all-time low 6%
of 1.17%, as illustrated in the next slide.
2.88%
The subdued basis on Binance and a stabilizing basis on CME 4%
has led CME to trade at a premium to Binance for the first time 2.97%
since November 2020.
2.23%
2%
2.22%
Following yesterday's sharp gain in BTC, open interest fell by
15,000 BTC in the futures market, suggesting profit-taking while 1.69%
also indicating a short squeeze. 0%
Overall, the futures premiums remain very low, and pessimism -2%
still seems to be the prevailing emotion among derivatives
1 Dec 8 Dec 15 Dec 22 Dec 29 Dec 5 Jan 12 Jan 19 Jan 26 Jan 2 Feb 9 Feb 16 Feb
traders.
FTX BitMEX Deribit Binance CME*
Source: Skew.com
*Closed Saturday - Sunday
Mar 1, 2022 15Sponsored by
Basis reaches all-time low on Binance’s quarterly BTC futures
Bitcoin futures: Binance 3mth annualized basis (24h MA)
45%
40%
The 3mth annualized futures basis on Binance reached its lowest 35%
24hr average level in history on Monday of 1.17%.
30%
The futures basis on Binance reached a new all-time low on
Monday, plummeting to levels lower than the July 21st lows.
25%
The previous low coincided with BTC bottoming after its sustained
summer sell-off and was followed by a substantial short squeeze as 20%
BTC broke out of its then $30k to $40k range, analogous to a range
of $35k to $45k today.
15%
Feb 28th, 2022
While history doesn’t necessarily repeat, and the basis overall has 10% 1.17%
been far more muted since May, the basis reaching historical lows
reflects that the sentiment is poor and possibly that sellers are
losing fire powder. 5%
July 21st, 2021
1.18%
0%
Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22
-5%
Source: Skew
Mar 1, 2022 16Sponsored by
Perp traders not convinced by recent rally
Funding rates still muted
Bitcoin perpetuals: Funding Rates vs BTCUSD
$60,000 0.04%
Funding rates in its third consecutive month in a neutral to below
neutral regime. $55,000 0.02%
0.01% (neutral funding)
Funding rates remain in neutral to below neutral terrain. Thus,
despite the strong recovery yesterday, perp traders remain $50,000 0.00%
cautious.
We’ve now seen three consecutive months of a neutral to negative
$45,000 -0.02%
funding rate regime, similar to what we saw during the summer
bear market of 2021.
Liquidations has picked up in the last week, with Feb 24th and Feb $40,000 -0.04%
28th seeing the largest daily short liquidation volume in bitcoin
since the volatile Dec 4th crash.
$35,000 -0.06%
Despite yesterday’s liquidation uptick, the perp open interest
remained fairly stable, falling from 223,000 BTC to 219,000 BTC,
suggesting that traders are actively re-adjusting risk.
$30,000 -0.08%
1 Dec 11 Dec 21 Dec 31 Dec 10 Jan 20 Jan 30 Jan 9 Feb 19 Feb 1 Mar 11 Mar
BTC Price Average Funding Rate (Binance + Bybit)
Source: Skew
Mar 1, 2022
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BLOCKCHAIN ACTIVITY
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Bitcoin on-chain summary: All red on-chain
All red on-chain. Miner revenues plummet, and transaction fees are now at
the lowest point in one-and-a-half years.
Daily miner revenues drop 14% to $34.6 million, caused by a slower than
average block production rate and a struggling bitcoin price over the
previous seven days.
On February 17th, Bitcoin increased its difficulty by 4.8% in the sixth upwards
difficulty adjustment in a row. Increased difficulty makes it harder for miners
to produce blocks, and mining becomes less profitable. Therefore, many
miners turned off their machines, and the hashrate decreased 6% over the
past seven days.
Source: Bytetree
The declining hashrate led to a 5.3% reduction in the block production rate.
After increasing six times in a row, the difficulty is finally expected to decrease Bitcoin Hashrate (7-day average)
by 2.4% on Thursday. 220
200
In addition to plummeting miner revenues, the most notable on-chain metric
180
now is the 29% decrease in transaction fees per day. They haven't been lower
since the summer of 2020, showing us how little on-chain activity there was 160
over the past seven days.
EH/s
140
120
It will be interesting to see if the conflict in Ukraine will lead to an increase in
on-chain activity going forward, or if on-chain activity will continue to stay 100
muted.
80
Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Oct 21 Dec 21 Feb 22
Source: Blockchain.com
Mar 1, 2022 19Sponsored by
Crypto donations are pouring in to support Ukraine
Thousands of people globally are donating millions worth of Cryptocurrency Donations to Ukraine*
cryptocurrencies to support Ukraine. Have we underestimated the $24m
power of using cryptocurrencies for fundraising?
On February 24th, the Ukrainian NGO "Come Back Alive" started
raising crypto. Donations poured in, and by February 25th, they had $20m
already raised more than $4 million.
The Ukrainian NGO's crypto fundraising success must have inspired $16m
the Ukrainian Government, which started raising crypto on
February 26th, posting Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses on Twitter.
Ukraine is one of the strongest crypto adopters globally, proved by $12m
its 4th rank in Chainalysis 2021 Global Crypto Adoption Index, and
the Ukrainian Government has historically been open towards
crypto. Still, it's unique for a government to plead for crypto
donations. $8m
Using crypto for fundraising has proved to be straightforward, both
for the donator and the receiver. There are no middlemen, so the
receiver saves fees, receives the funds faster, and can be 100% $4m
certain that the funds will not be confiscated by intermediaries who
disagree with the cause.
$0m
So far, more than $24 million of crypto has been donated to
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb 1 Mar
Ukraine, but this number is likely an underestimation since
countless smaller NGOs are collecting funds. Ukrainian Government Come Back Alive NGO
Source: Elliptic.co *Cumulative donations
Mar 1, 2022 20Sponsored by
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