WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank

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WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
T H E

W E A LT H R E P O RT

 THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON PRIME PROPERTY & INVESTMENT

                     2020 — 14TH EDITION
WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
T   14th Edition              Definitions                                         • The Knight Frank Wealth Sizing Model — Our                                                                                        As Head of Knight Frank Private Office, I am
                                                                                  new model created by our data engineering team                                                                                      delighted to welcome you to the first edition of
H   Editor                    UHNWI                                               measures the size of HNWI, UHNWI and billion-                                                                                       The Wealth Report of this new decade.
    Andrew Shirley            Ultra-high-net-worth individual – someone with      aire cohorts in over 200 countries and territories.                                                                                   The next ten years have already been dubbed by
E                             a net worth of over US$30 million including                                                                                                                                             some the new “roaring twenties” – and I am optimistic
    Global Head Of Research   their primary residence                             Third party data                                                                                                                    that, with many positives to look forward to, they will
    Liam Bailey                                                                                                                                                                                                       live up to that soubriquet.
                              HNWI                                                Superyacht Intelligence                                                                                                               One of the most exciting opportunities to my
    —
W                             High-net-worth individual – someone with a          With the industry’s largest in-house team                                                                                           mind is the growing focus on wellbeing I see among
    Written by                net worth of over US$1 million including their      of researchers and analysts, working alongside                                                                                      Knight Frank’s wealthy clients. This presents many
E   Knight Frank Research     primary residence                                   the most respected market commentators, the                                                                                         opportunities for readers of The Wealth Report, whether
                                                                                  Superyacht Intelligence Agency is the most                                                                                          it’s the investment potential of the global demographic
A   Flora Harley              Prime property                                      respected source of market analysis, insight and                                                                                    trend towards longer, healthier lives – explored in
    James Culley              The most desirable and most expensive property      consultancy focused solely on this specialist                                                                                       detail in our Big Interview on page 10 – or the ability
L   Kate Everett-Allen        in a given location, generally defined as the top   sector. consultancy@superyachtintelligence.com                                                                                      of forward-thinking property investors and landlords
    Lee Elliott               5% of each market by value. Prime markets often                                                                                                                                         to capitalise on demand for “healthy” workspaces
T   Maiia Sleptcova           have a significant international bias in terms of   WINGX                                                                                                                               that boost productivity, which we discuss on page 76.
    Mike Denicolai            buyer profile                                       Founded in 2011, WINGX Advance provides                                                                                             In parallel with this, “giving something back” is
H   Patrick Gower                                                                 business intelligence for the global private                                                                                        increasingly important to the UHNWI community, and
    Tom Bill                                                                      jet market spanning the entire supply chain,                                                                                        on page 86 we profile three fascinating philanthropists
    William Matthews          Data sources                                        from airports, operators and manufacturers                                                                                          whose work benefits a diverse range of causes.
                                                                                  to industry investors and financial analysts.                                                                                         A central pillar of The Wealth Report, the results of
R   Marketing                 Numbers from Knight Frank’s proprietary             office@wingx-advance.com                                                                                                            our proprietary Wealth Sizing Model – unveiled on
    Carrie Russell            research and from carefully selected third                                                                                                                                              page 18 – reveal that wealth continues to be created
E   Robert Man                parties lie at the heart of The Wealth Report’s                                                                                                                                         around the world, especially in Asia’s economic hubs.
    Sarah Guppy               findings. Some of the report’s key sources          Key                                                                                                                                 This growth in private capital is having a noticeable
                                                                                                                                        R O R Y P E N N — H E A D O F K N I G H T F R A N K P R I VAT E O F F I C E
P   Tom Smith                 are detailed below.                                                                                                                                                                     impact on real estate markets globally.

                                                                                                                                        Welcome                                                                         Providing real estate advice and transacting for
                                                                                  These icons have been designed and positioned
O   Public relations          Proprietary research                                to help you navigate The Wealth Report 2020                                                                                         private clients has been central to our 124 years as
    Astrid Recaldin                                                               and all of its content.                                                                                                             an independent partnership. With the world around
R                             • The PIRI 100 — Now in its 13th year, the                                                                                                                                              us rapidly evolving, Knight Frank continues to adapt
    Sub-editor                Knight Frank Prime International Residential                ONLINE CONTENT                                                                                                              to our clients’ developing needs and aspirations for
T   Louise Bell               Index tracks movements in luxury prices across                                                                                                                                          high quality service and thought leadership. We want
    Sunny Creative            the world’s top residential markets.                        R E L AT E D A R T I C L E S                                                                                                clients to be fully informed of future trends and the
                              The index, compiled using data from our                                                                                                                                                 opportunities that we see in real estate from surfacing
    —
                              research teams around the world, covers major               AT T I T U D E S S U R V E Y R E S U LT S                                                                                   data, repurposing assets, continued urbanisation and
    Design & direction        financial centres, gateway cities and second                                                                                                                                            wealth preservation.
    Adam Evans                home hotspots – both coastal and rural – as well                                                                                                                                          To take just one example, our market-leading Private
                                                                                  All Knight Frank contacts:
    Tom Evans                 as leading luxury ski resorts.                                                                                                                                                          Office team provides a single point of contact for pri-
                                                                                  firstname.familyname@knightfrank.com
                              • The Attitudes Survey — The 2020 instalment                                                                                                                                            vate clients and family offices, serving their property
    Data visualisation        is based on responses provided during October                                                                                                                                           needs, from sourcing luxury homes in prime markets
    Matthew Rowett            and November 2019 by 620 private bankers and                                                                                                                                            to creating well-structured, diverse investment port-
                              wealth advisors who between them manage                                                                                                                                                 folios across the wide range of residential, commercial
    Illustration              over US$3.3 trillion of wealth for UHNWI clients.                                                                                                                                       and alternative asset classes. For more information,
    Omar Aqil                 Special thanks to Alfa Bank, ANZ Bank Australia,                                                                                                                                        please see the supplement in the back of this report.
    Cheryl Goh                ANZ Bank New Zealand, Bank of Singapore, Citi                                                                                                                                             We operate wherever our clients need us to be and
    Santi Zoraidez            Private Bank, Crestone Wealth Management,                                                                                                                                               our expertise spans the globe, connecting a far-reach-
    Stephen Cheetham          CTBC Bank (Philippines) Corporation, ICEA LION                                                                                                                                          ing network with local expertise. To allow us to pro-
                              Asset Management, JBWere, Macquarie Private                                                                                                                                             vide personal, consistent and discreet advice to
    Photography               Bank, Maybank Philippines Inc, NCBA Group,                                                                                                                                              private clients, we are delighted to see the Private
    Graham Lee                Nedbank Private Wealth, RBC Wealth Manage-                                                                                                                                              Office expanding into a number of key global wealth
                              ment, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore,            View The Wealth Report and properties                                                                                               hubs in 2020. If Knight Frank can be of any help to you,
    Print                     Sumitumo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd and UOB              from around the world on your device                                                                                                please do get in touch. I hope you find the contents of
    Optichrome                Private Bank for their participation.               knightfrank.com/wealthreport                                                                                                        The Wealth Report interesting and valuable.

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WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
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Contents

06                                           W   18                              C   36                               H   48                                I   70                                  P   86

Decade of Virtue                                 Onwards & Upwards                   The Big Apple Bounces Back           Cities Shine                          Doing their Homework                    The Ultimate Investment
Opinion – Liam Bailey                             Research – The inaugural            Research – The latest results        Research – The results of the        Analysis – Private investors            Interviews – Philanthropists
                                             E                                   I                                    O                                     N                                       A
casts his eye over ESG                           results of the Knight Frank         from our City Wealth Index           PIRI 100, our unique Prime            and the commercial                      on what drives them to give
                                                 Wealth Sizing Model                                                      International Residential Index       property market
10                                           A                                   T   38                               M                                     V                                       S   90

Medicine Man                                     22                                  The Pursuit of Happiness             54                                    74                                      Objects of Desire
Interview – Jim Mellon and                       Spotlight 2020                       Research – Findings from            Inside Out                            Investment of a Lifetime                 Research – The results of
                                             L                                   I                                    E                                     E                                       S
Andrew Scott discuss longevity                   Analysis – The geopolitical         our new City Wellbeing Index         Insight – How wellness                Insight – The residential               our Luxury Investment Index
                                                 issues set to dominate 2020                                              trends are shaping                    sectors attracting
                                             T                                   E   42                                   residential developments          S   private investors                   I   92

                                                 26                                  Charting the Luxury Airwaves                                                                                       Most Wanted
99                                               Follow the Money                    Data analysis – The most             58                                    76                                      Analysis – Stand-out luxury
                                             H                                   S                                                                          T                                       O
Databank                                         Special report – Transparency       popular private jet and              Next Neighbourhoods                   Repurposing Real Estate                 auction sales from 2019
In detail – Attitudes Survey                     and the movement of wealth          superyacht journeys                  Forecast – Residential                Insight – How wellness is
and wealth distribution numbers                                                                                           hotspots around the world         I   driving occupier demand             N   94

                                                                                     44                                                                                                                 It's in the Bag
106                                                                                  Green Skies, Green Waves             66                                    78                                      Interviews – Inside the
                                                                                                                                                            N                                       S
Our Global Expertise                                                                 Opinion – How the                    Lower for Longer                      Building Blocks                         world of luxury handbags
                                                                                     luxury travel industry               Forecast – Prime residential          Forecast – An expert guide to
108                                                                                  is going greener                     market price growth               G   global commercial property              98

Final Word                                                                                                                predictions for 2020                  investment hotspots                     Auction Top Tips

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WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
Meet the Authors
  The research team behind The Wealth Report
  share the things that inspire them – along with
  some of this edition’s key findings

                                Liam Bailey                                Flora Harley                                           Kate Everett-Allen                                                    Tom Bill                                                                                                     Liam Bailey                                               Flora Harley                                        Kate Everett-Allen                                             Tom Bill

                                                                                                                                                                              Kate is Head of International                                                                                                                               A former financial journalist,
                                                                                                                                                                              Residential Research. Having                                                                                                                                Gráinne was Head of UK
Andrew Shirley

                                                                                                             Flora Harley

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tom Bill

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dr Lee Elliot
                                                  As Knight Frank’s Global                                                                                                    established all four of our                                                                                                                                 Residential                   Research              at
                                                  Head of Research, Liam keeps                                                                                                global                    residential               indices,                                                                                                Knight Frank for more than                                                                                           Will is Head of Commercial
                                                  an eye on all things property,                                                                                              including the PIRI 100, Kate                                                                                                                                eight years. She is now Head                                                                                         Research at Knight Frank.
                                                  everywhere. Together with                                                                                                   specialises in understanding                                                                                                                                of Research at Zoopla. Gráinne                                                                                       He                 heads          up          a     multi-
                                                  Andrew Shirley, he shapes                                                                                                   how private wealth shapes                                                                                                                                   examines data and policy to                                                                                          disciplinary team of market
                                                  the            research          themes              in                                                                     international prime property                                                                                                                                create insights into trends in                                                                                       experts, focusing on the UK
                                                  The Wealth Report each year.                                                                                                markets.                                                                                                                                  Liam Bailey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Liam Bailey              residential markets.     Flora Harley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Flora Harley                                                                Kate Everett-Allen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Kate Everett-Allen             and EMEA regions.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Tom Bill Tom Bill

                               Andrew Shirley                            Gráinne Gilmore Liam Bailey                                  LeeLiam   Bailey
                                                                                                                                           Elliott  Flora Harley                                          Flora
                                                                                                                                                                                                    William     Harley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Kate Everett-Allen
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Matthews                                        Tom Bill
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Kate Everett-Allen                                            Tom Bill Andrew Shirley                                          Gráinne Gilmore                                            Lee Elliott                                           William Matthews
  Andrew is the editor of The                                                                                  Flora analyses the economics                                                                                                                                    Tom is a senior member                                                                                                As Head of Global Occupier
  Wealth Report – this is his                                                                                  and trends affecting global                                                                                                                                     of Knight Frank’s research                                                                                            Research at Knight Frank, Lee
                                                Liam Bailey

                                                                                                                                                                           Kate Everett-Allen

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Gráinne Gilmore

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            William Matthews
  12th edition. He also compiles                                                                               wealth markets. Before join-                                                                                                                                    team. He specialises in ana-                                                                                          focuses on changes in the
  the Luxury Investment Index                                                                                  ing Knight Frank, she worked                                                                                                                                    lysing the wider political and                                                                                        world of work – and how
  (page 90) and has a passion for                                                                              as an economist for KPMG                                                                                                                                        economic trends that will                                                                                             these might impact on owners
  Africa, where he once worked                                                                                 and             the     UK          government                                                                                                                  shape the future trajectory                                                                                           and occupiers of real estate.
  as an agronomist.                                                                                            after completing a masters in                                                                                                                                   of residential property prices                                                                                        He is the editor of (Y)OUR
                                                                                                               economics from the London                                                                                                                                       and sales volumes.                                                                                                    SPACE, Knight Frank’s flagship
                                                                                                               School of Economics.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  occupier research report.

                                                                              Liam Bailey      Liam Bailey                             Flora Harley    Flora Harley                                                  Kate Everett-Allen
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Kate Everett-Allen                         Tom Bill      Tom Bill                                        Andrew Andrew
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Shirley Shirley                                    Gráinne Gráinne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Gilmore Gilmore                                            Lee Elliott
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lee Elliott                                                   William Matthews
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         William Matthews
  I N S P I R AT I O N                            I N S P I R AT I O N                                         I N S P I R AT I O N                                           I N S P I R AT I O N                                                                             I N S P I R AT I O N                                       I N S P I R AT I O N                                       I N S P I R AT I O N                                      I N S P I R AT I O N
                                                                                          Andrew Shirley                               Andrew Shirley
                                                                                                                                               Gráinne Gilmore                                                      Lee Elliott
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Gráinne Gilmore                           Lee Elliott
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       William Matthews                               William Matthews

  The 100-Year Life, co-authored                  An Omelette and a Glass of                                   The Ascent of Money,                                   by      Despite ever greater diversity                                                                   Inside Bill’s Brain: Decoding                              Happy City by Charles Mont-                                Time and How to Spend It by                               Property                    Boom           by       Oliver
  by Andrew Scott (see page 15),                  Wine              by   Elizabeth               David         Niall Ferguson, who has pre-                                   and interconnectedness, we                                                                       Bill Gates is a Netflix docu-                              gomery looks at how urban                                  James Wallman is that rare                                Marriott was first published
  opened my eyes to the huge                      demonstrates her strength as                                 viously been interviewed for                                   continue to seek out like-                                                                       mentary that captures the                                  planning can promote social                                thing, a self-help book that is                           in 1967 and charts the colour-
  array of challenges and oppor-                  a stylist and the power of                                   The Wealth Report, offers a                                    minded thinkers in order to                                                                      essence of impact investing.                               cohesion                  and        happiness.            both intriguing and helpful.                              ful histories of the families
  tunities that a longer-living                   confidently expressed opinion                                fascinating window on the                                      validate our world view. In                                                                      It demonstrates how Gates is                               Highlights include examples of                             In an era of technological dis-                           and entrepreneurs who found-
  and – hopefully – healthier                     based on thorough knowledge.                                 history of wealth creation,                                    Rebel Ideas: The Power of                                                                        driven by the need to make a                               how small-scale changes – like                             traction, the book looks at how                           ed some of today’s biggest
  population will bring. — as                     It’s a reminder of the value                                 including how countries such                                   Diverse                    Thinking,                Matthew                                      positive difference and how                                creating a park or widening                                we can reconnect with our-                                names in property. For those
                                                  of good, spare, clear writing                                as India and China have gone                                   Syed argues that cognitive                                                                       he uses his wealth to achieve                              a cycle lane – can positively                              selves, focus on what matters,                            with                 an      interest             in     the
                                                  in a period of information                                   from poverty to wealth. — fh                                   diversity is a source of future                                                                  that aim. — tb                                             affect communities and neigh-                              and be more productive and                                makings of the industry, it’s a
                                                  overload. — lbAndrew Shirley Andrew Shirley                                                      Gráinne Gilmore
                                                                                                                                     Gráinne Gilmore                          competitive  advantage.
                                                                                                                                                                                       Lee Elliott Lee Elliott — kea                                       William Matthews
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             William Matthews                                                                             bourhoods. — gg                                            more contented. — le                                      must-must read. — wm

                    HK   $2M                                  US    $5TRN                                                   31,000                                                                     78%                                                                               US   $4.5TRN                                                          95M                                                 US   $1TRN                                                  US    $996BN
                                                              The estimated amount                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Value of commercial property
                                                              sitting in undisclosed                                        The number of additional                                            Percentage of prime                                                                      The size of the                                                  The number of people                                     The annual cost to the world                                transactions in 2019. Real
                 The price paid at auction                    bank accounts globally,                                       UHNWIs (those worth                                                 residential markets globally                                                             global wellness economy                                          aged 65 or over will nearly                              economy of depression                                       estate is an increasingly
                 in 2019 for an Hermès                        exposed by the new                                            US$30 million+) created                                             registering flat or positive                                                             according to the Global                                          double to 95 million in the                              and anxiety in terms                                        important part of many
                 Himalaya Birkin handbag.                     OECD transparency rule.                                       around the world in 2019.                                           price growth in 2019.                                                                    Wellness Institute.                                              US over the next 40 years.                               of lost productivity.                                       investors’ portfolios.
                 Find out more on page 93                     Find out more on page 26                                      Find out more on page 18                                            Find out more on page 48                                                                 Find out more online                                             Find out more on page 74                                 Find out more on page 76                                    Find out more on page 70

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WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
In the first edition of The Wealth Report, back in                                                  An equally important driver is the perceived need              For example, as more money pours into funds that

Decade of Virtue                                                  2007,    I    talked        about     the   rise
                                                                  This concept was based on the assumption that, if
                                                                                                                      of   plutonomy.                               to future-proof business. As BlackRock’s Larry Fink
                                                                                                                                                                    said in his 2019 letter to CEOs: “Attracting and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   allocate capital to ESG-focused companies, the logic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   that they will see higher returns over the long term is
                                                                  the rich were taking an ever-larger slice of the                                                  retaining the best talent increasingly requires a clear        questioned by some. Matt Levine in his Bloomberg
Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s Global Head of Research, identifies   economic pie, then investing in companies that                                                    expression of purpose.” Mr Fink felt certain this              column in December speculated that, if non-ESG-
and critiques the big theme dominating the agenda right now:      sold the things rich people bought – like yacht                                                   phenomenon would only grow as today’s younger                  compliant companies become relatively starved of
the seismic change being brought about through the expansion      builders and high-end real estate developers – was a                                              workers began to occupy senior positions, predicting           capital, we might assume that the cost of finance to
of impact investment                                              recipe for financial outperformance.                                                              that “the sentiments of these generations will drive           these businesses would increase and the concomitant
                                                                    Thirteen years later, and the dominant investment                                               not only their decisions as employees, but also as             return to the investor would also climb.
                                                                  trends that we’re covering in this edition are rather                                             investors, with the world undergoing the largest                 Or, rather more fundamentally, what happens if the
                                                                  less bling and considerably more virtuous: wellness;                                              transfer of wealth in history: US$24 trillion from baby        global economy slows? The enthusiasm for a kinder
                                                                  impact investing; and three letters that are having a                                             boomers to millennials”.                                       form of capitalism has emerged during a period of
                                                                  big impact – ESG.                                                                                   Changing sentiment is already having an impact               booming profits and record-breaking asset prices. ESG
                                                                    While investment in “wellness” assets and services                                              on investment decisions. Our own Attitudes Survey              advocates would counter this by noting that a
                                                                  promoting healthier lifestyles is merely a reflection                                             this year reveals that 45% of respondents believe              continuation of (non-ESG) “business as usual” risks
                                                                  of a market opportunity, the more seismic change for                                              wealthy     investors    are    becoming       increasingly    the ability to generate long-term profits, either due to
                                                                  investors is being brought about through the                                                      concerned about the impact the buildings they                  environmental degradation or activist policy-making.
                                                                  expansion of impact investment. This concept has                                                  invest in are having on the wider environment.                   Of all the criticisms of ESG, two issues stand out.
                                                                  evolved and become (at least partially) codified                                                  (See below for more detail.)                                   One is the need for clarity and transparency; the
                                                                  under the acronym ESG. Standing for environmental,
                                                                  social and governance, it represents no less than a
                                                                  fundamental redrafting of capitalism’s rulebook.                            The Attitudes
                                                                    In December, the Financial Times in London                                Survey                                                               DEFINITION                                                             DEFINITION

                                                                  claimed that 2019 was the year “capitalism went                             The 2020
                                                                  cuddly”. If so, then 2020 will be the year this new                         instalment of this
                                                                  altruism can expect to be held to account.                                  unique survey is
                                                                                                                                                                       Wellbeing                                                      Environmental, social & governance (ESG) criteria
                                                                    The doctrine that Milton Friedman propagated in                           based on re-
                                                                                                                                                                       The health of individuals – mental and physical –              A generic term used by investors to evaluate corpo-
                                                                  the early 1970s, that a company’s sole social                               sponses provided
                                                                                                                                                                       society as a whole, and the wider natural environ-             rate behaviour against a set of non-financial perfor-
                                                                  responsibility         is     to    produce        profits    for     its   during October
                                                                                                                                                                       ment. Growth in demand for a healthy outcome                   mance indicators including sustainable, ethical and
                                                                  shareholders, is increasingly being rejected by                             and November
                                                                                                                                                                       is driving innovation across the real estate sector.           corporate governance issues such as managing the
                                                                  corporate boards. In its place is a new vision in which                     2019 by 620 private
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      company’s carbon footprint and ensuring there are
                                                                  CEOs put “purpose” at the heart of their business                           bankers and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      systems in place to ensure accountability.
                                                                  models. Some have undertaken a bout of heavy lifting                        wealth advisors
                                                                  to achieve this: changing core business practices or                        who between them
                                                                  investing in low-carbon energy, for example. Others                         manage US$3.3
                                                                  have taken a more modest approach, displaying their                         trillion of private     Critically, there also appears to be a financial             other relates to who is best placed to make what are
                                                                  virtue       through        healthy    “green”      food     in     their   client wealth. The    rationale   for    embracing     ESG.     By    the   Global   increasingly becoming moral decisions.
                                                                  subsidised staff canteens, offering skills training to                      survey examines       Sustainable       Investment    Alliance’s     calculations,     The first issue points to a fairly fundamental
                                                                  employees or even, as the FT noted, signing open                            the factors that      funds managing US$31 trillion – a quarter of the               failing: that there is no single objective standard for
                                                                  letters supporting environmental or political causes.                       influence UHNWI       world’s total – apply some form of ESG screen to their         ESG. As a result, companies are currently being
                                                                    The trend towards a softer version of capitalism                          wealth creation,      investments. A growing body of research appears to             scored against a range of different and sometimes
                                                                  has been driven in part by a corporate desire to                            investment            validate such an approach, showing outperformance              conflicting metrics.
                                                                  rebuild the trust which many felt had been lost in the                      decisions and         by companies scoring well on ESG criteria. It is not             In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission
                                                                  aftermath of the global financial crisis, as low interest                   attitudes towards     yet clear, though, whether ESG promotes success or             (SEC) has begun asking pointed questions as record
                                                                  rates and the resulting asset price boom helped the                         philanthropy          whether successful companies embrace ESG.                      amounts flow into ESG funds, with a particular focus
                                                                  business world and the wealthy to flourish. In this                         and other wealth                                                                     on the criteria used to determine whether an
                                                                  context, corporate virtue signalling can be seen as a                       management and        Under scrutiny                                                 investment is socially or environmentally responsible.
                                                                  sensible defensive move, heading off interventions                          lifestyle trends.     Under these circumstances, it may seem mean-                   The need for clarity was made starkly apparent in
                                                                  promoted by politicians. As Alan Schwartz, chairman                         It is broken down     spirited to question the unqualified good that ESG             2018 when electric car maker Tesla received an
                                                                  of the investment bank Guggenheim Partners, put it                          by global region      appears to represent. If businesses are considering            environmental score well below that of traditional
                                                                  last year: “Throughout the centuries…when the                               and results are       their wider social and environmental impact, thereby           car makers, partly because of a lack of consistency
                                                                  masses think the elites have too much, one of two                           also available for    striving to create a win-win for all their stakeholders,       in the available data.
                                                                  things happens: legislation to redistribute wealth...or                     selected individual   what’s not to like? There are, however, some                     The potential for metrics to be misunderstood, or
                                                                  revolution to redistribute poverty.”                                        countries.            dissenting voices.                                             used for a purpose for which they were not intended,

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risks penalising good companies to the detriment            sure that an overwhelming number of them would
of employees and/or investors.                              choose the latter.”
   As SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated last              This issue of authority is critical, because without
year, corporations are being labelled “without              clarity on this point the same accusations that were
bothering much about facts and circumstances and            levelled against companies during the financial crisis
seemingly without caring about the unwarranted              are at risk of being repeated.
harm such labelling can engender…ESG letters over-            As Paul Singer, founder and head of fund manager
simplify complicated facts and may send companies           Elliott Management Corporation, argued in the FT
scrambling to take actions that neither achieve the         last year, it was risk-hungry managers of the big
broader social goals of ESG proponents, nor serve           banks acting in their own self-interest, rather than in
their shareholders well.”                                   the pursuit of profits for investors, which contributed
   The second issue is, who gets to decide? Is it           to that crisis, with catastrophic implications for
appropriate for companies or fund managers to be            shareholders, employees and the public.
making moral decisions on behalf of their investors,           These concerns would be more likely to dissipate
or would governments or individual investors be             if there was full transparency regarding who makes
better placed to be entrusted with that burden?             the decisions on ESG, with what information and
Warren Buffett went so far as to state last year that       against what metrics. But, again, who is best placed
it was wrong for companies to impose their views of         to provide this clarity? Ultimately, it must be
“doing good” on society. As he pointed out in an            governments and their regulators. Consequently, the

                                              DEFINITION
                                                                                  Changing sentiment is
                                                                           already having an impact on
                                                                         investment decisions. Our own
      Impact investment                                                       Attitudes Survey this year
      The term “impact investing” is used informally                    reveals that 45% of respondents
      by many in the investment community, but there is                    believe wealthy investors are
      increasing demand from investors to develop a                       increasingly concerned about
      global standard. Impact investing is generally held                 the impact the buildings they
      to describe investment that intentionally seeks                        invest in are having on the
      measurable social and environmental benefits.                                  wider environment

interview with the FT in 2019, “...corporate managers       steps being taken by the SEC in the US and the Bank
deplore governmental allocation of the taxpayer’s           of England in the UK, alongside the Task Force on
dollar, but embrace enthusiastically their own              Climate Related Financial Disclosures, to remedy the
allocation of the shareholder’s dollar.”                    information gap are to be welcomed.
   Hester Peirce’s complaint that “ESG is broad                Armed with such information, investors will be
enough to mean just about anything to anyone [and           able to make an informed choice. It is not enough to
that] the ambiguity and breadth of ESG allows               ask them simply to trust the judgment of managers
ESG experts great latitude to impose their own              and advisors. The most urgent requirement is the
judgments, which may be rooted in nothing at all            need to improve and standardise non-financial
other than their own preferences”, again points to the      measures that assess the impact companies have on
issue of who is making these decisions – and with           society and the environment.
what authority they are making them.                           Get this right and the hopeful vision that Larry
   Robert Shillman, chairman of Cognex, used his            Fink articulated will be more likely to become the
company’s last annual report to express the view that       new business as usual: “Purpose drives ethical
if fund investors were asked, “Do you want the board        behaviour and creates an essential check on actions
of directors and the managers of your companies             that go against the best interests of stakeholders...It
to spend time and energy on ESG or do you want              guides culture, provides a framework for consistent
them to spend all of their time and energy on               decision-making,      and   helps   sustain   long-term
increasing the value of your shares?”, he was “rather       financial returns for your shareholders.”

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Growing old, ageing, senescence, whatever you want          Wellcome, and its two permanent exhibitions are aptly
                                                                                      to call it, has long been considered part and parcel of     called “Medicine Man” and “Being Human”.
Jim Mellon at the Wellcome Collection

                                                                                      being human. So much so that medical science, un-             Going existential for just a moment as we pause in
                                                                                      til very recently, has largely been focused on treating     front of a display of ancient fertility amulets, I ask Jim
                                                                                      the symptoms of getting old, and has barely sought to       if he thinks this idea of subverting the ageing process,
                                                                                      mitigate the process itself.                                previously thought of as natural and inevitable, is some-
                                                                                        Jim Mellon is an investor helping to rip up that          how actually changing what it means to be human.
                                                                                      approach and his latest book, Juvenescence – Investing        It’s an interesting question, he concedes, but he is
                                                                                      in the Age of Longevity, offers a tantalising view of       keen to downplay any notions of seeking immortal-
                                                                                      where the human race might be heading and the               ity. “The point is, we are not trying to do cryogenics
                                                                                      opportunities available for those who, like him, believe    where you put people into an iced state for a long time,
                                                                                      there is money to be made from this nascent sector.         looking for a cure in the future. We’re not looking at

                                                                                                                                    INTERVIEW — ANDREW SHIRLEY
                                                                                                                                      PORTRAIT — GRAHAM LEE

                                                                                                                Medicine Man
                                                                                                  Is the quest for longer, healthier lives – arguably the main trend driving
                                                                                                 the burgeoning wellbeing industry – the next big opportunity for shrewd
                                                                                                     investors? And what will its impact be on individuals and society?
                                                                                                       The Wealth Report gets answers from those leading the charge

                                                                                        “This is the biggest money fountain that I have ever      taking the brain and putting it into a sort of hologram
                                                                                      seen,” he claims at the start of the book. “The longev-     or anything like that.
                                                                                      ity business has quickly moved from wacky land to             “All we are doing is continuing the paradigm of
                                                                                      serious science and within just a couple of decades         human existence of the past 200 to 300 years, where
                                                                                      we expect average life expectancy in the developed          there have been remarkable advances in sanitation,
                                                                                      world to rise to around 110.”                               antibiotics, vaccinations, infant mortality, less man-
                                                                                        Intrigued, I’ve arranged to interview Jim, who made       ual labour, and therefore fewer accidents at work, all
                                                                                      his name in the last millennium investing in mining         of which mean we are living longer. But now, for the
                                                                                      and property, at the Wellcome Collection in London.         first time, people have identified the actual pathways
                                                                                      I wanted to meet here for two reasons that resonate         of ageing and are able to influence them.”
                                                                                      with the subject-matter being discussed.                      But although living forever may not be in our grasp
                                                                                        The Collection is part of the Wellcome Trust, a           quite yet, the concept isn’t strictly confined to the
                                                                                      global foundation with investments of almost £27            world of science fiction. “There are creatures out there
                                                                                      billion that was founded by medical pioneer Henry           which are immortal, or as near as dammit immortal,”

                                        T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0   10                                                                           11             K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
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points out Jim, referring to simple organisms such as the         of senescent cells. There are now drugs that will be able                                                     “That’s another great question,” says Jim, who clear-         increase the likelihood of picking winners, I suggest. He
hydra. “All we’re trying to do is to replicate those path-        to remove those senescent cells and restore people to a                                                     ly knows how to keep an interviewer on side. “Neil, who         agrees, but adds that there is more to it than just learning
ways. It’s bio-engineering, but it's not gene therapy. It’s not   pre-frailty state. This is in human trials now.”                                                            I never met, seemed to have concentrated only on British        about the topic.
altering our genes, that’s coming later. That’s what will keep      So this goes beyond prevention and actually holds the                                                     technology, which is admirable, but there’s not enough of         “In the case of Juvenescence, I did the research by driv-
you, or your children, alive for 150-plus years. But what we      promise of turning back the clock, of reversing the age-                                                    it. He was doing stuff which I would consider to be probably    ing around the US, 8,000 miles in two months, and I met all
have today can keep us alive for 110 or 120 years.”               ing process, I venture, just to check I’m on the right wave-                                                overpriced: not that the science wasn’t good, but the price     these people. We just hit it at the time when the science was
   The pages of Juvenescence – defined as the state of being      length. Absolutely, Jim tells me, reinforcing his point                                                     he paid to go into these things was too high.                   catching up with the aspiration of all of us to live a longer
youthful or of growing young and also the name of the busi-       with an eye-catching example from one of the businesses                                                       “We’re not like that. We start these companies ourselves.     and healthier life. We became friends and colleagues with a
ness that Jim uses to “commercialise the science” behind          he has invested in.                                                                                         We’re the principal shareholders. We put money in at every      lot of these people, and as a result were able to do deals that
longevity – are littered with examples of the science, and          “In the first half of this year, not ten years out, we will                                               round of investment, so it’s our own money. Greg [Bailey, a     others weren’t able to do.”
the companies, behind it that will deliver these extra years,     have a product that will be in sick patients that will re-                                                  Juvenescence co-investor] and I have each invested US$15          Talking about deals, I ask Jim what he considers to be
some of them spectacularly complex. I ask Jim if he can           grow their liver in situ. We have found a technology that is                                                million in Juvenescence in hard cash. I wouldn’t say it’s a     his best investments so far in this area. “Greg and I were
distil them down to the areas that excite him most for the        implanted into a lymph node, of which we have hundreds,                                                     labour of love, but it’s very important to us to make sure      the early investors in a company called Medivation. It was

                                                                                                                                                                                There are now
                                                                                                                                                                                drugs that will

                                                                                                                 Lifecycle: Jim Mellon and Andrew Shirley discuss longevity
                                                                                                                                                                                be able to remove
                                                                                                                                                                                senescent cells
                                                                                                                                                                                and restore people
                                                                                                                                                                                to a pre-frailty state

benefit of those readers of The Wealth Report – not to men-       next to the liver, which will re-grow a brand new liver within                                              that we have commercial successful products, and we’re          worth about US$100 million when he brought investors in,
tion its editor – who don’t have a degree in biochemistry.        four or five months.                                                                                        going to do everything we can to avoid blowing money            including myself, and we sold it for US$14.5 billion. The
   “It’s a great question. All drug companies, including            “Now, you might say that can’t be true,” he continues,                                                    in a bad way.”                                                  Biohaven investment, the most recent one, four years ago,
Wellcome, where we’re standing at the moment, and which           perhaps noting the widening eyes of the person videoing                                                       And in terms of frauds like Theranos? “You could spot         was probably the most successful in terms of return. We
was one of the great British drug companies, treat the dis-       the interview. “But we’ve done it in 600 animals, including                                                 that quite easily, because she had people like Henry            owned 54% for US$3 million and it’s worth US$3 billion
eases of ageing, typically cancer, heart disease, respiratory     dogs and pigs, with 100% success. The FDA [the US Food                                                      Kissinger and George Shultz on her board. Both of them          now on the New York Stock Exchange.”
disease, Alzheimer’s, dementia, obesity and diabetes.             and Drug Administration, which licenses new drugs] has al-                                                  are in their 90s and know nothing about biotech. She had           The figures are impressive, but Jim is quick to emphasise
   “But what they’re treating are the things that are caused      lowed us to go straight to a phase two trial on sick patients.                                              no recognised biotech investors or people with a biotech        that it’s not all about returns. “From my own point of view
by ageing. You get cancer, you’re cured of cancer, you get        This is no longer science fiction, this is here and now.”                                                   background on her board, and she wouldn’t show anyone           the money will all go back to the charities that I support,
heart disease, you’re cured of heart disease, but something         Although the cutting edge of science sounds like a very                                                   the product.”                                                   because I’ve got enough money to live off. But we really
else will get you. The emerging commercial science of lon-        exciting place to be, I put it to Jim that it must also be a risky                                            However, Jim concedes that he won’t back a winner             want to make this a successful enterprise because then it
gevity treats the actual fundamental disease of ageing – the      environment for investors. Prior to our interview the UK                                                    every time. “This is complicated science, this is going to be   will attract more people, more companies, and there will
absolute top part of the waterfall.                               press has been full of stories about the collapse of former                                                 difficult, there will be multiple failures – but we only need   be many more therapies to help everybody to live longer,
   “I’ll give you an example. You and I, as we get older, will    star stock picker Neil Woodford’s investment fund, which                                                    two out of our fifteen to work.”                                healthier and happier lives. The more money there is, the
have more senescent cells. These are cells that are basical-      included a number of medical investments. The spectre of                                                      Routinely researching and writing about the subjects          more accelerated the science.”
ly in a state of limbo and they cause a lot of inflammation.      the Theranos blood-testing scandal still hangs over Silicon                                                 he invests in – previous science-based investment guides          In addition to his charitable work, Jim has also set up
When my dad, who’s 90, walks with difficulty, it’s because        Valley. How does he avoid such traps, I ask.                                                                include Fast Forward and Cracking the Code – must help          a non-profit organisation called The Longevity Forum in

T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0   12                                                                                                                                                                                                                      13            K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
conjunction with economist Andrew Scott, author of                                                                                  As discussed in the preceding pages,                                      What we’re going to have to start think-             to four days a week because I know, later,
The 100-Year Life (see panel opposite), to look at the wider
implications of longer lives on society and individuals.
                                                                     Today plant-based meat is                                    scientific advances could see average
                                                                                                                                  lifespans increase significantly. Received
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ing about is less of a hierarchical system,
                                                                                                                                                                                                           and more of an inter-generational sys-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   you're going to come back to five days.”

   In the current environment of super-charged ESG and the           huge, but we’re investing                                    wisdom views this as a potential burden                                  tem, where every generation is represent-               Wealth advisors
rapid spread of the “purpose over profit” mantra increasing-
ly espoused by business leaders, this approach seems to tick
                                                                     in non-animal cultured                                       on society. Professor Andrew Scott, who
                                                                                                                                  formed The Longevity Forum with Jim
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ed. We need to start thinking too about
                                                                                                                                                                                                           careers in general not as a ladder, but
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The role of the wealth advisor now isn’t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   really about wealth, it’s about, “How do
all the boxes. But in the past Jim has been at pains to stress       meats and derivatives                                        Mellon, disagrees, arguing that we should                                more like a lattice. Is there something I               you support the life you want?” Which is
that the duty of a company is only to its shareholders. Does
he still stick by that view, I wonder.
                                                                     like leather and milk                                        view longer healthier lives as a gift. But
                                                                                                                                  governments and business are still woe-
                                                                                                                                                                                                           can give the eldest child to run, that isn’t
                                                                                                                                                                                                           the company itself? It could be a founda-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   about wealth, of course, but it’s also about
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   health, and it’s about purpose.
   “Obviously I’m not investing in tobacco companies or                                                                           fully underprepared to reap the benefits.                                tion, or a block of property.                             Of course, there are more options,
arms companies or companies that are destroying the envi-                                                                         Here is his advice for the various readers                                  Of course, the other option is simply to             because we haven't had to deal with this
ronment – my two principal areas of investment are longev-                                                                        of The Wealth Report.                                                    admit that it's not possible. If I'm 50 and             longer life before. So, it’s a more bespoke,
ity and clean meat, or new agriculture – but I do hold to the
view that if you set up a company your responsibility is to
the shareholders, and from that will flow benefits for other
stakeholders. I really believe in that. However, what I do with
the money that comes from these investments is my affair.”
   One of my next questions was going to be what will he be
writing about next, but Jim has beaten me to it. From his
previous answer I get the impression it’s going to be some-                                                                                              LIVING A LONGER LIFE
thing to do with food and agriculture.
                                                                                                                                                     P R O F E S S O R A N D R E W S C O T T, A U T H O R O F T H O U G H T- P R O V O K I N G R E A D
   “Yes,” he confirms, but as you’d expect his interest, while                                                                              T H E 1 0 0 -Y E A R L I F E , O F F E R S S O M E T I P S O N H O W T O M A K E T H E M O S T O F L O N G E V I T Y
tapping into the climate change and animal rights dis-
course – “I personally don’t eat meat because of the cruelty
factor” – is some way ahead of the investment curve.

                                                                    “Today plant-based meat is huge, so Beyond Burger,            Fledgling wealth creators                                                my child is 25, I may have another 30 or                more customised approach than saying:
                                                                  Impossible Burger, and all that sort of stuff is taking off,    Don’t model yourself on your parent’s gen-                               40 years running this company. So, rath-                “You need this amount of money to stop
                                                                  but we’re investing in non-animal cultured meats and            eration; you’ve got to do things differently.                            er than grooming them to take over the                  working.” It’s asking: “What type of life
                                                                  derivatives like leather and milk. A few animal cells are       Being an entrepreneur, particularly in your                              company, could they be looking for                      do you want to support? And how do you
                                                                  fed and over time they grow to be meat, or they grow to be      20s, is great because you’re going to learn                              ways to expand the business in other                    go about instructing your wealth and
                                                                  fish, and they don’t need any antibiotics [livestock medica-    a lot, you’re going to learn about yourself                              dimensions and directions?                              your work to achieve that?”
                                                                  tion is a significant contributor to rising global antibiotic   and what you’re good at, and you’ve got
                                                                  resistance], they don’t have any hormones, they don’t have      time in a longer life to make mistakes, to                               Business owners                                         Property markets and developers
                                                                  any waste, they don’t have any cruelty, they don’t have any     educate yourself and to experiment and                                   Staff retention is going to be tricky be-               If I buy a house when I’m 30 or 35 and I own
                                                                  emissions. What’s not to like?”                                 find out what you want to do.                                            cause people are living multi-stage lives.              it for a long time I’m going to have a lot of
                                                                    But will vegetarians and vegans eat these new prod-                                                                                    In terms of HR you’re going to have to                  wealth tied up in it. That’s going to create
                                                                  ucts that Jim says will be on our shelves by the end of the     Head of the family                                                       have multiple entry and exit points and                 problems for other generations; you’re
                                                                  decade? “Not all vegetarians will accept it, but you’re not     The good news is, if you’re living longer,                               more flexible career paths.                             going to start seeing a lot more multi-
                                                                  killing the animal. It’s a bit like me taking a biopsy from     your wealth should accumulate for longer.                                   With our outdated three-stage mindset                generational housing developments.
                                                                  you. Am I doing you irreparable harm? No.”                      So, you’ve got more of it, but your family                               – education, work, retirement – everyone                  The other thing is that people are
                                                                    It seems ironic that we’re discussing a solution to a         is going to get bigger. There are massive                                focuses on graduate intake. I can’t under-              beginning to change their living patterns.
                                                                  major cause of antibiotic resistance in the home of a           challenges when you go from a three- to                                  stand why, because if you look at popu-                 Previously, people used to leave the city
                                                                  business that made much of its money from such drugs,           a four-generation household.                                             lation trends the larger group is made up               when they stopped working, and they’d
                                                                  but also appropriate that the interview seems to have come        If you’ve got a family firm, it gets really                            of those that are about to leave the work-              go to the coast or the countryside. You’re
                                                                  full circle, from one existential question to another.          complicated. Back when life expectancy                                   force, rather than come in. How do I keep               seeing many more people in their 70s and
                                                                    Nothing can be taken for granted anymore, but if Jim          was 75 or 80, you’d hand over your com-                                  them happy and engaged? Because you                     80s wanting to stay in the city, but cities
                                                                  Mellon is right and significant numbers of people are soon      pany to a 40-year-old. But if you’re living                              don’t want that experience to walk off.                 are not designed for older people, so we
                                                                  routinely living well into their 100s, the chances are that     to 100, do you hand it over to a 70-year-                                   It’s also less about money. I might say:             need new housing stock.
                                                                  in the future we’ll be having to answer even more of these      old? The person in charge is in charge for                               “I know you’ve got a young family and
                                                                  questions – and that people will be investing in sectors that   a lot longer, and that has the potential to                              you need more time. You’ve been work-                        R E A D M O R E O F P R O F E S S O R S C OT T ’ S I D E A S

                                                                  don’t even currently exist.                                     create all sorts of tensions.                                            ing for us long enough, you can go down                      AND INSIGHTS ONLINE

T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0   14                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15                    K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
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K E Y TA K E A W AY                                                                    22

                                                                                       Spotlight 2020
                                                                                       Analysis – The geopolitical
The world’s UHNWI population is forecast to rise                                       issues set to dominate 2020
27% over the next five years. However, the rapidly       18

changing geopolitical and regulatory environment,        Onwards & Upwards             26

along with shifting societal attitudes to wealth, will    Research – The inaugural     Follow the Money
require thoughtful reassessment of what it means to      results of the Knight Frank   Special report – Transparency
be wealthy. Start your journey here                      Wealth Sizing Model           and the movement of wealth
Global
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Data compiled by Knight Frank
 W                   The inaugural results of Knight Frank’s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Research from multiple sources.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            For more information, contact
                     new global Wealth Sizing Model                                                                                                     Canada
  E                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          flora.harley@knightfrank.com
                     suggest that geopolitical uncertainty is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sweden
  A                  failing to slow wealth growth

 Global
 wealth
  L
                                                                                                                                                                                                    UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Germany
  T                  W O R D S — F LO R A HA R L E Y                                                                                                                                                          Belgium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             S. Korea

                     D ATA M O D E L L I N G — M A I I A S L E P T C O VA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    +44%
 H                   G E O S PAT I A L A N A LY S I S — M I K E D E N I C O L A I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Japan
                                                                                                                                               US

 wealth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Iran                                  China
                                                                                                                                                                                                         France                                            Turkey                                India
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Switzerland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Asia’s forecast five-year

 Onwards
 We reveal the locations of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hong
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Italy                         Saudi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Kong                      UHNWI growth is double North
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Arabia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               America’s projected rate,
 ultra wealthy but also highlight
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Spain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             with high growth expected in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              India (+73%), China (+58%)
 forcasts which show dramatic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        and Indonesia

 & Upwards                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (+57%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Algeria
                                                                                                                                               Mexico                                                                                 Libya

 changes
We  revealin wealth
           the       distributions
               locations of the                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nigeria

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Singapore

 the near
ultra     future
      wealthy  but also highlight                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Asia tops regional forecast growth
 Rank       Country                  Individuals worth over US$30m                                                                                                                                                                                                            2019 UHNWI totals                       2019-2024 growth
forcasts which show dramatic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          103,335               Asia                         44%

changes in wealth distributions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mozambique                                                                                                       Indonesia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4,501          Africa                  32%

the  near
 Global
 World     future
        UHNWI
       UHNWI  distribution
             rankings                                                                             Mapped: number of UHNWIs                                                         Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Asia tops
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Asia tops regional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       regional forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  growth growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5,931 Australasia  30%
 Number of
 Selected   individuals
          countries andworth    over ordered
                         territories US$30mby rank                                                Countries and territories are scaled by the number
Rank Country           Individuals worth over US$30m                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2019 UHNWI totals            Russia    2019-2024 growth
                                                                                                  of individuals worth over US$30m who live there                                                                                                                                          10,363
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           & CIS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                23%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     103,335              Asia                    44%
                                    Individuals worth over US$30m
                                                                                                  Map key: colour corresponds to                                                                                                                                                       110,846            Europe               23%                     Australia
 1          US                                                                       240,575      UHNWI forecast five-year growth                                                                                                                                                          4,501  Africa                        32%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    North
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               249,900                                         22%
World
 2    UHNWI
      China rankings                                 61,587                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        America
 3          Germany                         23,078                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5,931 Australasia                    30%
Number of individuals worth over US$30m                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Middle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          14,178                             17%
 4          France                        18,776                                                   -15%   +0%                           +75%                                                                                                                                                         East
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10,363                               23%
 5          Japan                         17,013                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  & Latin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CIS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          14,190                             17%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   America
 6          UK                            14,367                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   110,846       Europe                      23%
17         Italy
          US                             10,701                                     240,575                                                                            Argentina
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          North
28         Canada
          China                         9,325      61,587                                                                                                                                                                                                                     249,900                                        22%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         America
39         Russia
          Germany                       8,924
                                         23,078                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Middle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          14,178                            17%
4 10       Switzerland
          France                        8,395
                                        18,776                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            East
5 11       Spain
          Japan                         6,475
                                        17,013                                           The                                                                                                                                                                                              14,190
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Latin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17%

                                                                                       US
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         America
6 12       India
          UK                            5,986
                                        14,367
7 13        South Korea
          Italy                         5,847
                                       10,701
8 16       Saudi Arabia
          Canada                        5,100
                                       9,325
                                                                                                                                          Economically, 2019 was outwardly a                dominates, with more than double the                                               According to our Attitudes Survey,                                      Over the next five years we forecast
9 17       Brazil
          Russia                        4,812
                                       8,924                              dominates the rankings with
1018       Australia
          Switzerland                   3,796
                                       8,395                              240,575 UHNWIs, more than                                       tumultuous year, with the International           UHNWI population of Europe.                                                      on average 23% of UHNWI investment                                    that global UHNWI numbers will grow
1119       Mexico
          Spain                       3,790
                                     6,475                                 Europe and Asia combined,                                      Monetary Fund reducing its forecast for             Asia is quickly closing the gap on                                             portfolios are made up of equities,                                   by 27%. Of the top 20 fastest growing
1220        Singapore
          India                       3,306
                                     5,986                                   accounting for almost
                                                                                                                                          global GDP growth from 3.5% in January            Europe and our figures predict that by                                           meaning that their performance makes                                  countries that we measure, six are lo-
                                                                                                                +6%
1321       Austria
          South Korea                 2,839
                                     5,847                                      half the global
1622       HongArabia
          Saudi Kong                  2,737
                                     5,100
                                                                                     total                                                2019 to just 2.9% in January 2020 –               2024 it will be the world’s second larg-                                         a large contribution to rising wealth.                                cated in Asia (led by India with 73%
1727       Turkey
          Brazil                      1,913
                                     4,812                                                                 growth in UHNWIs               a ten-year low.                                   est wealth hub, with forecast five-year                                            Residential property also accounts                                  growth), five are in Europe (led by Swe-
1828       New Zealand
          Australia                  1,812
                                    3,796                                                                     globally in
                                                                                                                 2019
                                                                                                                                            Despite this, the world’s UHNWI popu-           growth of 44%. However, even follow-                                             for a large proportion of total UHNWI                                 den with 47% growth) and three are in
1929       UAE
          Mexico                     1,681
                                    3,790
                                     1,594
                                                                                                                                          lation – those with a net worth of US$30          ing this heady rise Asia’s UHNWI cohort                                          wealth – almost a third, according to                                 Africa (led by Egypt with 66% growth).
 30
20         Norway
          Singapore                 3,306
2131       Ireland
          Austria                    1,343
                                    2,839                                                                                                 million or more – rose by 6.4%, according         will still only be half the size of North                                        the Attitudes Survey. Turn to page                                        This reflects the positive sentiment
2235       South
          Hong   Africa
               Kong                  1,033
                                    2,737                                                                                                 to our new Wealth Sizing Model. This is           America’s, which is forecast to grow by                                          48 for our latest data on how prime                                   captured in our Attitudes Survey, with

                                                                                          513,244
2738       Argentina
          Turkey                      831
                                    1,913
                                                                                                                                          borne out by the results of our Attitudes         22% over the same period.                                                        property fared worldwide in 2019.                                     55% of respondents expecting their
2844       Nigeria
          New Zealand                 724
                                    1,812
2945       Indonesia
          UAE                         675
                                    1,681                                                                                                 Survey, in which 63% of respondents said            The expansion in wealth during 2019                                              Heightened                 global            geopolitical           clients’ wealth to increase in 2020.
                                                                                      was the total number of UHNWIs
 50
30         Philippines
          Norway                      569
                                    1,594                                                                                                 their clients’ wealth had increased in            is unsurprising, given the strong growth                                         uncertainty contributed to a rise in                                  Those in North America were the most
                                                                                       worldwide in 2019. The +27%
3161        Monaco
          Ireland                     335
                                    1,343
                                                                                         five-year growth forecast                        2019, with only 11% reporting a decrease.         seen in many asset classes. Equity mar-                                          the value of “safe haven” assets: gold                                bullish – 77% are expecting a hike.
3566       Iceland
          South Africa                269
                                    1,033
                                                                                            would take the total
3870       Morocco
          Argentina                  215
                                    831                                                                                                     Globally, more than 31,000 additional           kets, including stock exchanges in the                                           hit a six-year high in September and,                                     On page 20, we look at some of the
                                                                                                 to 649,331
 113
44         Kenya
          Nigeria                    42
                                    724                                                                                                   UHNWIs were created in 2019, bring-               US, Germany and Australia, have seen                                             by the end of 2019, prices were some                                  key economic and political themes
 180
45          Zambia
          Indonesia                  5
                                    675
                                                                                                                                          ing the total to more than 513,200. As            double-digit growth, although the UK                                             16% higher than they had been 12                                      that could influence the fortunes of
50        Philippines               569
 Source: Knight Frank Research
                                    335
                                                                                                                                          our graphic shows, North America                  and Japan saw more modest returns.                                               months previously.                                                    UHNWIs this year – in either direction.
61        Monaco
66        Iceland                  269
70         Morocco                 215
  T H E W EKenya
113        A LT H R E P O R T – 2 042
                                   20                                   18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         19                      K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T

180       Zambia                   5
W                                                                     THE KNIGHT FRANK                                                                                             The global millionaire population                                                       The global billionaire population
                                                                                                                                                                                   continues to grow                                                                       is set to rise after a dip last year
E                                                                     W E A LT H S I Z I N G M O D E L                                                                                                                                            63.9m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2,616
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2,351 2,335
A                                                                                                                                                                                                                    50.0m
                                                                                                                                                                                                             46.9m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1,797
L                                                                                                                                                                                 39.4m
                                                                      Wealth has become a defining economic           When talking about net wealth, we now include
T
                                                                      issue, and a clear understanding of who         primary residences and second homes not
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Forecast                                                                          Forecast
H                                                                     holds it, how concentrated it is, how it is     owned primarily as investments, as this gives a
                                                                      spent and where it is moving in the world       more accurate representation of total wealth.
                                                                      is critical to understanding future global      Individuals pass wealth on via the places
World UHNWI rankings
                                                                      economic outcomes. That is why we have          they live, and borrow against them to fund
Number of individuals worth over US$30m
                                                                      chosen to invest in the creation of our         their investments. In addition, when house                   2014                        2018 2019                          2024                     2014                 2018 2019                               2024

Future gazing                                                         own proprietary Wealth Sizing Model.            prices are rising consumers can experience a
                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Knight Frank Research
Some of the highest and lowest                                                                                        positive wealth effect, supporting higher levels
1      India                         73%
World
forecastUHNWI
         growth inrankings
                    UHNWI populations                                 Now, for the first time, we can estimate the    of consumption, and – of course – vice versa.
3      Egypt                        66%
over the next
Number        five yearsworth over US$30m
         of individuals
4         Vietnam                                64%                  growth of wealth populations in over 200
6         China                                58%          240,575
                                                                      countries and territories globally in any
7         Indonesia              Five-year growth
                                             57%                                                                                                                                   Where
                                                                                                                                                                                   Where is
                                                                                                                                                                                         is wealth
                                                                                                                                                                                            wealth growing?
                                                                                                                                                                                                   growing?
8         Tanzania                               54%                  wealth bracket and run scenarios to help us     AND OUR
1         India                                      73%                                                                                                                           Wealth advisors'
                                                                                                                                                                                          advisors assessment
                                                                                                                                                                                                    assessment of
                                                                                                                                                                                                               of clients'
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  clients wealth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           wealth change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  change
          Sweden                                47%                   better understand risks and opportunities
                                                                                                                      S U R V E Y S AY S . . .
15
3         Egypt                                     66%
24        Romania                              42%
                                                                      for our clients.                                                                                                2019         2020 prediction
4         Vietnam                                  64%
38        New Zealand                         37%
6         China                                   58%
42        Malaysia                            35%
                                                            240,575                                                                                                                % who say wealth has decreased/will decrease                                     % who say wealth has increased/will increase
7
59
          Indonesia
          UK                                 31%
                                                  57%
                                                                      Measuring the world’s wealth                                                                                 Where is wealth growing?
8         Tanzania                               54%                                                                                                                                                                        1%          North                                                                                                                                 89%
61        Poland                            29%                                                                                      Results from our                              Wealth advisors assessment of clients wealth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3%    change America                                                                                                              77%
15        Sweden                                47%                   Taking established wealth estimation models
62        Singapore                         29%                                                                                      Attitudes Survey                                                                                              Indian
24        Romania                              42%                    (Davies et al. (2017)) as our starting point,                                                                   2019         202027%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        prediction                                                                                                      51%
64        Australia                         29%                                                                                                                                                                              10%                subcontinent                                                                                          73%

                                                                                                                                                             77%
38        New Zealand                         37%
68        Canada                            28%                       we have estimated levels of net wealth on                                                                    % who say wealth has decreased/will decrease                Asia (excl Indian    % who say wealth has increased/will increase
42        Malaysia                            35%                                                                                                                                                                       6%                                                                                                               67%
73        South Africa                     25%                        a location-by-location basis using balance                                                                                                               9%               subcontinent)                                                                         63%
59        UK                                 31%                                                                                                          of respondents                                                                1%           North                                                                                                                    89%
81        UAE                              24%
61        Poland                            29%                       sheet data, where available, on households’                                       say North American                                                            3%           America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Australasia                                                                                                77%81%
82        Spain                            24%                                                                                                                                                                                           0%                                                                                           61%
62        Singapore                         29%                                                                                                             wealth will                                                                              Indian
83        Russia                          23%                         financial and non-financial wealth.                                                                                                27%                                                                                                            51%
64        Australia                         29%                                                                                                                rise in                                                        10%   3%              Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                subcontinent                                                                                          73%       80%
85        Turkey                          22%                                                                                                                   2020                                                            8%.                (excl UK)                                                           50%
68        Canada                            28%                                                                                                                                                                                   6%           Asia (excl Indian
87        US                              22%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            67%
73        South Africa                     25%                        Where data was not available, estimates                                                                                                                   9%6%            subcontinent)                                                                         63%   71%
89        Mexico                          21%                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK
81        UAE                              24%                                                                                                                                                                                  9%                                                                                     50%
                                                                      were generated using econometric                                                                                                                              3%                                                                                                                            81%
91        France                          21%                                                                                                                                                                                                    Australasia
82        Spain                            24%                                                                                                                                                                              11%..     0%           Middle                                                                             61%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      63%
93        Brazil                         20%                          techniques. Utilising estimated Gini

                                                                                                                              Property
83        Russia                          23%                                                                                                                                                                               11%..                   East                                                              48%
97        Uganda                         20%                                                                                                                                                                                        3%             Europe                                                                                                       80%
85        Turkey                          22%                         coefficients, we then drew the wealth                                                                                                                                        Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (excl UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           13% 8%.                                                                      38%            50%
98        Zambia                         20%
87        US                              22%                         distribution curve for each location,                                                                                                 25%                                     & CIS                                                        44%
99        Philippines                    19%                                                                                                                                                                                     6%                                                                                                                71%
89        Mexico                          21%                                                                            makes up the largest proportion                                                                       9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     UK
                                                                      calibrating this with our own data as                                                                                      33%                                                                                             30%                   50%
100       Greece                         19%                                                                              of investment portfolios held                                                                                             Africa
91        France                          21%                                                                                                                                                                        18%                                                                                        43%
106       Ireland                       17%                           well as other industry standard sources.                 by UHNWIs. Equities                                                                          11%..                   Middle                                                                            63%
93        Brazil                         20%                                                                                                                                                                                11%..
107       Italy                         17%                                                                                                                                                                        19%                               Latin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     East                                                             48%     56%
97        Uganda                         20%                                                                                      comes second                                                             25%                                     America                                              38%
110       Switzerland                   17%                                                                                          at 23%                                                                            13%                          Russia                                              38%
98        Zambia                         20%
111       Germany                       16%                           This allows us to estimate the number                                                                                                25%
                                                                                                                                                                                             2019 & 2020 regional average                           & CIS                                                        44%
99        Philippines                    19%
117       Kenya                        14%                            of individuals in each location in the                                                                              12% saw33%
                                                                                                                                                                                                   wealth decrease in 2019                                                                                2020 global                     2019 global average
                                         19%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     30%
100       Greece                                                                                                                                                                            12% predict a decrease18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in 2020                          Africa                                                   average                      63% saw wealth increase
125       Nigeria                      13%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  43%
106       Ireland                       17%                           following wealth bands:                                                                                                                                                                                                             55% predict

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   40%+
127       Taiwan                       13%                                                                                                                                                                         19%                              Latin                                                    a wealth         56%         Source: The Wealth Report
107       Italy                         17%                           • 	HNWIs – those with net wealth
          Japan                       12%                                                                                                                                                                   25%                                    America                                              38% increase
133
110       Switzerland                   17%                                                                           UHNWI asset                                                                                                                                                                                                         Attitudes Survey
140       South Korea                 11%                               of US$1 million or more
111       Germany                       16%                                                                           allocations                                                            2019 & 2020 regional average                                                     respondents say
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          See Databank (page 99) for full
164       Thailand                   7%                               • 	UHNWIs – those with net wealth                                                                                  12% saw wealth decrease in 2019                                                 European, Middle Eastern            2020 global                 2019 global average
117       Kenya                        14%
166       Hungary                    6%                                                                               Proportion of the                                                     12% predict a decrease in 2020                                                   and UK wealth will                   average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          results of our Wealth Sizing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          63% saw wealth increase
125       Nigeria                     13%                               of US$30 million or more, and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Model and Attitudes Survey
171       Hong Kong                 5%                                                                                average UHNWI                                                                                                                                             stay the same                 55% predict

                                                                                                                                                             27%
127       Taiwan                      13%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         a wealth
176       Monaco                    3%                                • 	billionaires – those with net wealth        investment                                                                                                                                                   in 2020

                                                                                                                                                                              23%
133       Japan                       12%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        increase
                                                                                                                      portfolio invested

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           17%
177       Saudi Arabia              3%                                  of US$1 billion or more.
140       South Korea                 11%
201       Argentina                -4%                                                                                in each asset class

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11%
164       Thailand                   7%                                                                                                                      Property as an

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      8%
166       Hungary                    6%                                                                                                                      investment       Equities
                                                                      To forecast the number of individuals in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Bonds/Fixed
171       Hong Kong                 5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                5%
                                    3%
                                                                      each wealth band in the future, we have                                                                                                              income
176       Monaco                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Cash/
177       Saudi Arabia              3%                                drawn on data including predicted growth                                                                                                                                               Currencies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Private                                         3%                     Cryptocurrencies
201       Argentina                -4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      equity                    Collectables          Gold/
                                                                      in GDP, house prices, equity performance,                                                                                                                                                                                                                       precious
                                                                      interest rates and other asset classes that                                                                                                                                                                                                                     metals
                                                                                                                      Source: The Wealth Report
Source: Knight Frank Research                                         individuals hold.                               Attitudes Survey

T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0                 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      21                K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
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