WEALTH REPORT T H E - Knight Frank
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T H E W E A LT H R E P O RT THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON PRIME PROPERTY & INVESTMENT 2020 — 14TH EDITION
T 14th Edition Definitions • The Knight Frank Wealth Sizing Model — Our As Head of Knight Frank Private Office, I am new model created by our data engineering team delighted to welcome you to the first edition of H Editor UHNWI measures the size of HNWI, UHNWI and billion- The Wealth Report of this new decade. Andrew Shirley Ultra-high-net-worth individual – someone with aire cohorts in over 200 countries and territories. The next ten years have already been dubbed by E a net worth of over US$30 million including some the new “roaring twenties” – and I am optimistic Global Head Of Research their primary residence Third party data that, with many positives to look forward to, they will Liam Bailey live up to that soubriquet. HNWI Superyacht Intelligence One of the most exciting opportunities to my — W High-net-worth individual – someone with a With the industry’s largest in-house team mind is the growing focus on wellbeing I see among Written by net worth of over US$1 million including their of researchers and analysts, working alongside Knight Frank’s wealthy clients. This presents many E Knight Frank Research primary residence the most respected market commentators, the opportunities for readers of The Wealth Report, whether Superyacht Intelligence Agency is the most it’s the investment potential of the global demographic A Flora Harley Prime property respected source of market analysis, insight and trend towards longer, healthier lives – explored in James Culley The most desirable and most expensive property consultancy focused solely on this specialist detail in our Big Interview on page 10 – or the ability L Kate Everett-Allen in a given location, generally defined as the top sector. consultancy@superyachtintelligence.com of forward-thinking property investors and landlords Lee Elliott 5% of each market by value. Prime markets often to capitalise on demand for “healthy” workspaces T Maiia Sleptcova have a significant international bias in terms of WINGX that boost productivity, which we discuss on page 76. Mike Denicolai buyer profile Founded in 2011, WINGX Advance provides In parallel with this, “giving something back” is H Patrick Gower business intelligence for the global private increasingly important to the UHNWI community, and Tom Bill jet market spanning the entire supply chain, on page 86 we profile three fascinating philanthropists William Matthews Data sources from airports, operators and manufacturers whose work benefits a diverse range of causes. to industry investors and financial analysts. A central pillar of The Wealth Report, the results of R Marketing Numbers from Knight Frank’s proprietary office@wingx-advance.com our proprietary Wealth Sizing Model – unveiled on Carrie Russell research and from carefully selected third page 18 – reveal that wealth continues to be created E Robert Man parties lie at the heart of The Wealth Report’s around the world, especially in Asia’s economic hubs. Sarah Guppy findings. Some of the report’s key sources Key This growth in private capital is having a noticeable R O R Y P E N N — H E A D O F K N I G H T F R A N K P R I VAT E O F F I C E P Tom Smith are detailed below. impact on real estate markets globally. Welcome Providing real estate advice and transacting for These icons have been designed and positioned O Public relations Proprietary research to help you navigate The Wealth Report 2020 private clients has been central to our 124 years as Astrid Recaldin and all of its content. an independent partnership. With the world around R • The PIRI 100 — Now in its 13th year, the us rapidly evolving, Knight Frank continues to adapt Sub-editor Knight Frank Prime International Residential ONLINE CONTENT to our clients’ developing needs and aspirations for T Louise Bell Index tracks movements in luxury prices across high quality service and thought leadership. We want Sunny Creative the world’s top residential markets. R E L AT E D A R T I C L E S clients to be fully informed of future trends and the The index, compiled using data from our opportunities that we see in real estate from surfacing — research teams around the world, covers major AT T I T U D E S S U R V E Y R E S U LT S data, repurposing assets, continued urbanisation and Design & direction financial centres, gateway cities and second wealth preservation. Adam Evans home hotspots – both coastal and rural – as well To take just one example, our market-leading Private All Knight Frank contacts: Tom Evans as leading luxury ski resorts. Office team provides a single point of contact for pri- firstname.familyname@knightfrank.com • The Attitudes Survey — The 2020 instalment vate clients and family offices, serving their property Data visualisation is based on responses provided during October needs, from sourcing luxury homes in prime markets Matthew Rowett and November 2019 by 620 private bankers and to creating well-structured, diverse investment port- wealth advisors who between them manage folios across the wide range of residential, commercial Illustration over US$3.3 trillion of wealth for UHNWI clients. and alternative asset classes. For more information, Omar Aqil Special thanks to Alfa Bank, ANZ Bank Australia, please see the supplement in the back of this report. Cheryl Goh ANZ Bank New Zealand, Bank of Singapore, Citi We operate wherever our clients need us to be and Santi Zoraidez Private Bank, Crestone Wealth Management, our expertise spans the globe, connecting a far-reach- Stephen Cheetham CTBC Bank (Philippines) Corporation, ICEA LION ing network with local expertise. To allow us to pro- Asset Management, JBWere, Macquarie Private vide personal, consistent and discreet advice to Photography Bank, Maybank Philippines Inc, NCBA Group, private clients, we are delighted to see the Private Graham Lee Nedbank Private Wealth, RBC Wealth Manage- Office expanding into a number of key global wealth ment, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore, View The Wealth Report and properties hubs in 2020. If Knight Frank can be of any help to you, Print Sumitumo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd and UOB from around the world on your device please do get in touch. I hope you find the contents of Optichrome Private Bank for their participation. knightfrank.com/wealthreport The Wealth Report interesting and valuable. 1 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0 Contents 06 W 18 C 36 H 48 I 70 P 86 Decade of Virtue Onwards & Upwards The Big Apple Bounces Back Cities Shine Doing their Homework The Ultimate Investment Opinion – Liam Bailey Research – The inaugural Research – The latest results Research – The results of the Analysis – Private investors Interviews – Philanthropists E I O N A casts his eye over ESG results of the Knight Frank from our City Wealth Index PIRI 100, our unique Prime and the commercial on what drives them to give Wealth Sizing Model International Residential Index property market 10 A T 38 M V S 90 Medicine Man 22 The Pursuit of Happiness 54 74 Objects of Desire Interview – Jim Mellon and Spotlight 2020 Research – Findings from Inside Out Investment of a Lifetime Research – The results of L I E E S Andrew Scott discuss longevity Analysis – The geopolitical our new City Wellbeing Index Insight – How wellness Insight – The residential our Luxury Investment Index issues set to dominate 2020 trends are shaping sectors attracting T E 42 residential developments S private investors I 92 26 Charting the Luxury Airwaves Most Wanted 99 Follow the Money Data analysis – The most 58 76 Analysis – Stand-out luxury H S T O Databank Special report – Transparency popular private jet and Next Neighbourhoods Repurposing Real Estate auction sales from 2019 In detail – Attitudes Survey and the movement of wealth superyacht journeys Forecast – Residential Insight – How wellness is and wealth distribution numbers hotspots around the world I driving occupier demand N 94 44 It's in the Bag 106 Green Skies, Green Waves 66 78 Interviews – Inside the N S Our Global Expertise Opinion – How the Lower for Longer Building Blocks world of luxury handbags luxury travel industry Forecast – Prime residential Forecast – An expert guide to 108 is going greener market price growth G global commercial property 98 Final Word predictions for 2020 investment hotspots Auction Top Tips T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T — 2 0 2 0 2 3 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
Meet the Authors The research team behind The Wealth Report share the things that inspire them – along with some of this edition’s key findings Liam Bailey Flora Harley Kate Everett-Allen Tom Bill Liam Bailey Flora Harley Kate Everett-Allen Tom Bill Kate is Head of International A former financial journalist, Residential Research. Having Gráinne was Head of UK Andrew Shirley Flora Harley Tom Bill Dr Lee Elliot As Knight Frank’s Global established all four of our Residential Research at Head of Research, Liam keeps global residential indices, Knight Frank for more than Will is Head of Commercial an eye on all things property, including the PIRI 100, Kate eight years. She is now Head Research at Knight Frank. everywhere. Together with specialises in understanding of Research at Zoopla. Gráinne He heads up a multi- Andrew Shirley, he shapes how private wealth shapes examines data and policy to disciplinary team of market the research themes in international prime property create insights into trends in experts, focusing on the UK The Wealth Report each year. markets. Liam Bailey Liam Bailey residential markets. Flora Harley Flora Harley Kate Everett-Allen Kate Everett-Allen and EMEA regions. Tom Bill Tom Bill Andrew Shirley Gráinne Gilmore Liam Bailey LeeLiam Bailey Elliott Flora Harley Flora William Harley Kate Everett-Allen Matthews Tom Bill Kate Everett-Allen Tom Bill Andrew Shirley Gráinne Gilmore Lee Elliott William Matthews Andrew is the editor of The Flora analyses the economics Tom is a senior member As Head of Global Occupier Wealth Report – this is his and trends affecting global of Knight Frank’s research Research at Knight Frank, Lee Liam Bailey Kate Everett-Allen Gráinne Gilmore William Matthews 12th edition. He also compiles wealth markets. Before join- team. He specialises in ana- focuses on changes in the the Luxury Investment Index ing Knight Frank, she worked lysing the wider political and world of work – and how (page 90) and has a passion for as an economist for KPMG economic trends that will these might impact on owners Africa, where he once worked and the UK government shape the future trajectory and occupiers of real estate. as an agronomist. after completing a masters in of residential property prices He is the editor of (Y)OUR economics from the London and sales volumes. SPACE, Knight Frank’s flagship School of Economics. occupier research report. Liam Bailey Liam Bailey Flora Harley Flora Harley Kate Everett-Allen Kate Everett-Allen Tom Bill Tom Bill Andrew Andrew Shirley Shirley Gráinne Gráinne Gilmore Gilmore Lee Elliott Lee Elliott William Matthews William Matthews I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N I N S P I R AT I O N Andrew Shirley Andrew Shirley Gráinne Gilmore Lee Elliott Gráinne Gilmore Lee Elliott William Matthews William Matthews The 100-Year Life, co-authored An Omelette and a Glass of The Ascent of Money, by Despite ever greater diversity Inside Bill’s Brain: Decoding Happy City by Charles Mont- Time and How to Spend It by Property Boom by Oliver by Andrew Scott (see page 15), Wine by Elizabeth David Niall Ferguson, who has pre- and interconnectedness, we Bill Gates is a Netflix docu- gomery looks at how urban James Wallman is that rare Marriott was first published opened my eyes to the huge demonstrates her strength as viously been interviewed for continue to seek out like- mentary that captures the planning can promote social thing, a self-help book that is in 1967 and charts the colour- array of challenges and oppor- a stylist and the power of The Wealth Report, offers a minded thinkers in order to essence of impact investing. cohesion and happiness. both intriguing and helpful. ful histories of the families tunities that a longer-living confidently expressed opinion fascinating window on the validate our world view. In It demonstrates how Gates is Highlights include examples of In an era of technological dis- and entrepreneurs who found- and – hopefully – healthier based on thorough knowledge. history of wealth creation, Rebel Ideas: The Power of driven by the need to make a how small-scale changes – like traction, the book looks at how ed some of today’s biggest population will bring. — as It’s a reminder of the value including how countries such Diverse Thinking, Matthew positive difference and how creating a park or widening we can reconnect with our- names in property. For those of good, spare, clear writing as India and China have gone Syed argues that cognitive he uses his wealth to achieve a cycle lane – can positively selves, focus on what matters, with an interest in the in a period of information from poverty to wealth. — fh diversity is a source of future that aim. — tb affect communities and neigh- and be more productive and makings of the industry, it’s a overload. — lbAndrew Shirley Andrew Shirley Gráinne Gilmore Gráinne Gilmore competitive advantage. Lee Elliott Lee Elliott — kea William Matthews William Matthews bourhoods. — gg more contented. — le must-must read. — wm HK $2M US $5TRN 31,000 78% US $4.5TRN 95M US $1TRN US $996BN The estimated amount Value of commercial property sitting in undisclosed The number of additional Percentage of prime The size of the The number of people The annual cost to the world transactions in 2019. Real The price paid at auction bank accounts globally, UHNWIs (those worth residential markets globally global wellness economy aged 65 or over will nearly economy of depression estate is an increasingly in 2019 for an Hermès exposed by the new US$30 million+) created registering flat or positive according to the Global double to 95 million in the and anxiety in terms important part of many Himalaya Birkin handbag. OECD transparency rule. around the world in 2019. price growth in 2019. Wellness Institute. US over the next 40 years. of lost productivity. investors’ portfolios. Find out more on page 93 Find out more on page 26 Find out more on page 18 Find out more on page 48 Find out more online Find out more on page 74 Find out more on page 76 Find out more on page 70 T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0 4 5 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
In the first edition of The Wealth Report, back in An equally important driver is the perceived need For example, as more money pours into funds that Decade of Virtue 2007, I talked about the rise This concept was based on the assumption that, if of plutonomy. to future-proof business. As BlackRock’s Larry Fink said in his 2019 letter to CEOs: “Attracting and allocate capital to ESG-focused companies, the logic that they will see higher returns over the long term is the rich were taking an ever-larger slice of the retaining the best talent increasingly requires a clear questioned by some. Matt Levine in his Bloomberg Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s Global Head of Research, identifies economic pie, then investing in companies that expression of purpose.” Mr Fink felt certain this column in December speculated that, if non-ESG- and critiques the big theme dominating the agenda right now: sold the things rich people bought – like yacht phenomenon would only grow as today’s younger compliant companies become relatively starved of the seismic change being brought about through the expansion builders and high-end real estate developers – was a workers began to occupy senior positions, predicting capital, we might assume that the cost of finance to of impact investment recipe for financial outperformance. that “the sentiments of these generations will drive these businesses would increase and the concomitant Thirteen years later, and the dominant investment not only their decisions as employees, but also as return to the investor would also climb. trends that we’re covering in this edition are rather investors, with the world undergoing the largest Or, rather more fundamentally, what happens if the less bling and considerably more virtuous: wellness; transfer of wealth in history: US$24 trillion from baby global economy slows? The enthusiasm for a kinder impact investing; and three letters that are having a boomers to millennials”. form of capitalism has emerged during a period of big impact – ESG. Changing sentiment is already having an impact booming profits and record-breaking asset prices. ESG While investment in “wellness” assets and services on investment decisions. Our own Attitudes Survey advocates would counter this by noting that a promoting healthier lifestyles is merely a reflection this year reveals that 45% of respondents believe continuation of (non-ESG) “business as usual” risks of a market opportunity, the more seismic change for wealthy investors are becoming increasingly the ability to generate long-term profits, either due to investors is being brought about through the concerned about the impact the buildings they environmental degradation or activist policy-making. expansion of impact investment. This concept has invest in are having on the wider environment. Of all the criticisms of ESG, two issues stand out. evolved and become (at least partially) codified (See below for more detail.) One is the need for clarity and transparency; the under the acronym ESG. Standing for environmental, social and governance, it represents no less than a fundamental redrafting of capitalism’s rulebook. The Attitudes In December, the Financial Times in London Survey DEFINITION DEFINITION claimed that 2019 was the year “capitalism went The 2020 cuddly”. If so, then 2020 will be the year this new instalment of this altruism can expect to be held to account. unique survey is Wellbeing Environmental, social & governance (ESG) criteria The doctrine that Milton Friedman propagated in based on re- The health of individuals – mental and physical – A generic term used by investors to evaluate corpo- the early 1970s, that a company’s sole social sponses provided society as a whole, and the wider natural environ- rate behaviour against a set of non-financial perfor- responsibility is to produce profits for its during October ment. Growth in demand for a healthy outcome mance indicators including sustainable, ethical and shareholders, is increasingly being rejected by and November is driving innovation across the real estate sector. corporate governance issues such as managing the corporate boards. In its place is a new vision in which 2019 by 620 private company’s carbon footprint and ensuring there are CEOs put “purpose” at the heart of their business bankers and systems in place to ensure accountability. models. Some have undertaken a bout of heavy lifting wealth advisors to achieve this: changing core business practices or who between them investing in low-carbon energy, for example. Others manage US$3.3 have taken a more modest approach, displaying their trillion of private Critically, there also appears to be a financial other relates to who is best placed to make what are virtue through healthy “green” food in their client wealth. The rationale for embracing ESG. By the Global increasingly becoming moral decisions. subsidised staff canteens, offering skills training to survey examines Sustainable Investment Alliance’s calculations, The first issue points to a fairly fundamental employees or even, as the FT noted, signing open the factors that funds managing US$31 trillion – a quarter of the failing: that there is no single objective standard for letters supporting environmental or political causes. influence UHNWI world’s total – apply some form of ESG screen to their ESG. As a result, companies are currently being The trend towards a softer version of capitalism wealth creation, investments. A growing body of research appears to scored against a range of different and sometimes has been driven in part by a corporate desire to investment validate such an approach, showing outperformance conflicting metrics. rebuild the trust which many felt had been lost in the decisions and by companies scoring well on ESG criteria. It is not In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission aftermath of the global financial crisis, as low interest attitudes towards yet clear, though, whether ESG promotes success or (SEC) has begun asking pointed questions as record rates and the resulting asset price boom helped the philanthropy whether successful companies embrace ESG. amounts flow into ESG funds, with a particular focus business world and the wealthy to flourish. In this and other wealth on the criteria used to determine whether an context, corporate virtue signalling can be seen as a management and Under scrutiny investment is socially or environmentally responsible. sensible defensive move, heading off interventions lifestyle trends. Under these circumstances, it may seem mean- The need for clarity was made starkly apparent in promoted by politicians. As Alan Schwartz, chairman It is broken down spirited to question the unqualified good that ESG 2018 when electric car maker Tesla received an of the investment bank Guggenheim Partners, put it by global region appears to represent. If businesses are considering environmental score well below that of traditional last year: “Throughout the centuries…when the and results are their wider social and environmental impact, thereby car makers, partly because of a lack of consistency masses think the elites have too much, one of two also available for striving to create a win-win for all their stakeholders, in the available data. things happens: legislation to redistribute wealth...or selected individual what’s not to like? There are, however, some The potential for metrics to be misunderstood, or revolution to redistribute poverty.” countries. dissenting voices. used for a purpose for which they were not intended, T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T — 2 0 2 0 6 7 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
risks penalising good companies to the detriment sure that an overwhelming number of them would of employees and/or investors. choose the latter.” As SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated last This issue of authority is critical, because without year, corporations are being labelled “without clarity on this point the same accusations that were bothering much about facts and circumstances and levelled against companies during the financial crisis seemingly without caring about the unwarranted are at risk of being repeated. harm such labelling can engender…ESG letters over- As Paul Singer, founder and head of fund manager simplify complicated facts and may send companies Elliott Management Corporation, argued in the FT scrambling to take actions that neither achieve the last year, it was risk-hungry managers of the big broader social goals of ESG proponents, nor serve banks acting in their own self-interest, rather than in their shareholders well.” the pursuit of profits for investors, which contributed The second issue is, who gets to decide? Is it to that crisis, with catastrophic implications for appropriate for companies or fund managers to be shareholders, employees and the public. making moral decisions on behalf of their investors, These concerns would be more likely to dissipate or would governments or individual investors be if there was full transparency regarding who makes better placed to be entrusted with that burden? the decisions on ESG, with what information and Warren Buffett went so far as to state last year that against what metrics. But, again, who is best placed it was wrong for companies to impose their views of to provide this clarity? Ultimately, it must be “doing good” on society. As he pointed out in an governments and their regulators. Consequently, the DEFINITION Changing sentiment is already having an impact on investment decisions. Our own Impact investment Attitudes Survey this year The term “impact investing” is used informally reveals that 45% of respondents by many in the investment community, but there is believe wealthy investors are increasing demand from investors to develop a increasingly concerned about global standard. Impact investing is generally held the impact the buildings they to describe investment that intentionally seeks invest in are having on the measurable social and environmental benefits. wider environment interview with the FT in 2019, “...corporate managers steps being taken by the SEC in the US and the Bank deplore governmental allocation of the taxpayer’s of England in the UK, alongside the Task Force on dollar, but embrace enthusiastically their own Climate Related Financial Disclosures, to remedy the allocation of the shareholder’s dollar.” information gap are to be welcomed. Hester Peirce’s complaint that “ESG is broad Armed with such information, investors will be enough to mean just about anything to anyone [and able to make an informed choice. It is not enough to that] the ambiguity and breadth of ESG allows ask them simply to trust the judgment of managers ESG experts great latitude to impose their own and advisors. The most urgent requirement is the judgments, which may be rooted in nothing at all need to improve and standardise non-financial other than their own preferences”, again points to the measures that assess the impact companies have on issue of who is making these decisions – and with society and the environment. what authority they are making them. Get this right and the hopeful vision that Larry Robert Shillman, chairman of Cognex, used his Fink articulated will be more likely to become the company’s last annual report to express the view that new business as usual: “Purpose drives ethical if fund investors were asked, “Do you want the board behaviour and creates an essential check on actions of directors and the managers of your companies that go against the best interests of stakeholders...It to spend time and energy on ESG or do you want guides culture, provides a framework for consistent them to spend all of their time and energy on decision-making, and helps sustain long-term increasing the value of your shares?”, he was “rather financial returns for your shareholders.” T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T — 2 0 2 0 8 9 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
Growing old, ageing, senescence, whatever you want Wellcome, and its two permanent exhibitions are aptly to call it, has long been considered part and parcel of called “Medicine Man” and “Being Human”. Jim Mellon at the Wellcome Collection being human. So much so that medical science, un- Going existential for just a moment as we pause in til very recently, has largely been focused on treating front of a display of ancient fertility amulets, I ask Jim the symptoms of getting old, and has barely sought to if he thinks this idea of subverting the ageing process, mitigate the process itself. previously thought of as natural and inevitable, is some- Jim Mellon is an investor helping to rip up that how actually changing what it means to be human. approach and his latest book, Juvenescence – Investing It’s an interesting question, he concedes, but he is in the Age of Longevity, offers a tantalising view of keen to downplay any notions of seeking immortal- where the human race might be heading and the ity. “The point is, we are not trying to do cryogenics opportunities available for those who, like him, believe where you put people into an iced state for a long time, there is money to be made from this nascent sector. looking for a cure in the future. We’re not looking at INTERVIEW — ANDREW SHIRLEY PORTRAIT — GRAHAM LEE Medicine Man Is the quest for longer, healthier lives – arguably the main trend driving the burgeoning wellbeing industry – the next big opportunity for shrewd investors? And what will its impact be on individuals and society? The Wealth Report gets answers from those leading the charge “This is the biggest money fountain that I have ever taking the brain and putting it into a sort of hologram seen,” he claims at the start of the book. “The longev- or anything like that. ity business has quickly moved from wacky land to “All we are doing is continuing the paradigm of serious science and within just a couple of decades human existence of the past 200 to 300 years, where we expect average life expectancy in the developed there have been remarkable advances in sanitation, world to rise to around 110.” antibiotics, vaccinations, infant mortality, less man- Intrigued, I’ve arranged to interview Jim, who made ual labour, and therefore fewer accidents at work, all his name in the last millennium investing in mining of which mean we are living longer. But now, for the and property, at the Wellcome Collection in London. first time, people have identified the actual pathways I wanted to meet here for two reasons that resonate of ageing and are able to influence them.” with the subject-matter being discussed. But although living forever may not be in our grasp The Collection is part of the Wellcome Trust, a quite yet, the concept isn’t strictly confined to the global foundation with investments of almost £27 world of science fiction. “There are creatures out there billion that was founded by medical pioneer Henry which are immortal, or as near as dammit immortal,” T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0 10 11 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
points out Jim, referring to simple organisms such as the of senescent cells. There are now drugs that will be able “That’s another great question,” says Jim, who clear- increase the likelihood of picking winners, I suggest. He hydra. “All we’re trying to do is to replicate those path- to remove those senescent cells and restore people to a ly knows how to keep an interviewer on side. “Neil, who agrees, but adds that there is more to it than just learning ways. It’s bio-engineering, but it's not gene therapy. It’s not pre-frailty state. This is in human trials now.” I never met, seemed to have concentrated only on British about the topic. altering our genes, that’s coming later. That’s what will keep So this goes beyond prevention and actually holds the technology, which is admirable, but there’s not enough of “In the case of Juvenescence, I did the research by driv- you, or your children, alive for 150-plus years. But what we promise of turning back the clock, of reversing the age- it. He was doing stuff which I would consider to be probably ing around the US, 8,000 miles in two months, and I met all have today can keep us alive for 110 or 120 years.” ing process, I venture, just to check I’m on the right wave- overpriced: not that the science wasn’t good, but the price these people. We just hit it at the time when the science was The pages of Juvenescence – defined as the state of being length. Absolutely, Jim tells me, reinforcing his point he paid to go into these things was too high. catching up with the aspiration of all of us to live a longer youthful or of growing young and also the name of the busi- with an eye-catching example from one of the businesses “We’re not like that. We start these companies ourselves. and healthier life. We became friends and colleagues with a ness that Jim uses to “commercialise the science” behind he has invested in. We’re the principal shareholders. We put money in at every lot of these people, and as a result were able to do deals that longevity – are littered with examples of the science, and “In the first half of this year, not ten years out, we will round of investment, so it’s our own money. Greg [Bailey, a others weren’t able to do.” the companies, behind it that will deliver these extra years, have a product that will be in sick patients that will re- Juvenescence co-investor] and I have each invested US$15 Talking about deals, I ask Jim what he considers to be some of them spectacularly complex. I ask Jim if he can grow their liver in situ. We have found a technology that is million in Juvenescence in hard cash. I wouldn’t say it’s a his best investments so far in this area. “Greg and I were distil them down to the areas that excite him most for the implanted into a lymph node, of which we have hundreds, labour of love, but it’s very important to us to make sure the early investors in a company called Medivation. It was There are now drugs that will Lifecycle: Jim Mellon and Andrew Shirley discuss longevity be able to remove senescent cells and restore people to a pre-frailty state benefit of those readers of The Wealth Report – not to men- next to the liver, which will re-grow a brand new liver within that we have commercial successful products, and we’re worth about US$100 million when he brought investors in, tion its editor – who don’t have a degree in biochemistry. four or five months. going to do everything we can to avoid blowing money including myself, and we sold it for US$14.5 billion. The “It’s a great question. All drug companies, including “Now, you might say that can’t be true,” he continues, in a bad way.” Biohaven investment, the most recent one, four years ago, Wellcome, where we’re standing at the moment, and which perhaps noting the widening eyes of the person videoing And in terms of frauds like Theranos? “You could spot was probably the most successful in terms of return. We was one of the great British drug companies, treat the dis- the interview. “But we’ve done it in 600 animals, including that quite easily, because she had people like Henry owned 54% for US$3 million and it’s worth US$3 billion eases of ageing, typically cancer, heart disease, respiratory dogs and pigs, with 100% success. The FDA [the US Food Kissinger and George Shultz on her board. Both of them now on the New York Stock Exchange.” disease, Alzheimer’s, dementia, obesity and diabetes. and Drug Administration, which licenses new drugs] has al- are in their 90s and know nothing about biotech. She had The figures are impressive, but Jim is quick to emphasise “But what they’re treating are the things that are caused lowed us to go straight to a phase two trial on sick patients. no recognised biotech investors or people with a biotech that it’s not all about returns. “From my own point of view by ageing. You get cancer, you’re cured of cancer, you get This is no longer science fiction, this is here and now.” background on her board, and she wouldn’t show anyone the money will all go back to the charities that I support, heart disease, you’re cured of heart disease, but something Although the cutting edge of science sounds like a very the product.” because I’ve got enough money to live off. But we really else will get you. The emerging commercial science of lon- exciting place to be, I put it to Jim that it must also be a risky However, Jim concedes that he won’t back a winner want to make this a successful enterprise because then it gevity treats the actual fundamental disease of ageing – the environment for investors. Prior to our interview the UK every time. “This is complicated science, this is going to be will attract more people, more companies, and there will absolute top part of the waterfall. press has been full of stories about the collapse of former difficult, there will be multiple failures – but we only need be many more therapies to help everybody to live longer, “I’ll give you an example. You and I, as we get older, will star stock picker Neil Woodford’s investment fund, which two out of our fifteen to work.” healthier and happier lives. The more money there is, the have more senescent cells. These are cells that are basical- included a number of medical investments. The spectre of Routinely researching and writing about the subjects more accelerated the science.” ly in a state of limbo and they cause a lot of inflammation. the Theranos blood-testing scandal still hangs over Silicon he invests in – previous science-based investment guides In addition to his charitable work, Jim has also set up When my dad, who’s 90, walks with difficulty, it’s because Valley. How does he avoid such traps, I ask. include Fast Forward and Cracking the Code – must help a non-profit organisation called The Longevity Forum in T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0 12 13 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
conjunction with economist Andrew Scott, author of As discussed in the preceding pages, What we’re going to have to start think- to four days a week because I know, later, The 100-Year Life (see panel opposite), to look at the wider implications of longer lives on society and individuals. Today plant-based meat is scientific advances could see average lifespans increase significantly. Received ing about is less of a hierarchical system, and more of an inter-generational sys- you're going to come back to five days.” In the current environment of super-charged ESG and the huge, but we’re investing wisdom views this as a potential burden tem, where every generation is represent- Wealth advisors rapid spread of the “purpose over profit” mantra increasing- ly espoused by business leaders, this approach seems to tick in non-animal cultured on society. Professor Andrew Scott, who formed The Longevity Forum with Jim ed. We need to start thinking too about careers in general not as a ladder, but The role of the wealth advisor now isn’t really about wealth, it’s about, “How do all the boxes. But in the past Jim has been at pains to stress meats and derivatives Mellon, disagrees, arguing that we should more like a lattice. Is there something I you support the life you want?” Which is that the duty of a company is only to its shareholders. Does he still stick by that view, I wonder. like leather and milk view longer healthier lives as a gift. But governments and business are still woe- can give the eldest child to run, that isn’t the company itself? It could be a founda- about wealth, of course, but it’s also about health, and it’s about purpose. “Obviously I’m not investing in tobacco companies or fully underprepared to reap the benefits. tion, or a block of property. Of course, there are more options, arms companies or companies that are destroying the envi- Here is his advice for the various readers Of course, the other option is simply to because we haven't had to deal with this ronment – my two principal areas of investment are longev- of The Wealth Report. admit that it's not possible. If I'm 50 and longer life before. So, it’s a more bespoke, ity and clean meat, or new agriculture – but I do hold to the view that if you set up a company your responsibility is to the shareholders, and from that will flow benefits for other stakeholders. I really believe in that. However, what I do with the money that comes from these investments is my affair.” One of my next questions was going to be what will he be writing about next, but Jim has beaten me to it. From his previous answer I get the impression it’s going to be some- LIVING A LONGER LIFE thing to do with food and agriculture. P R O F E S S O R A N D R E W S C O T T, A U T H O R O F T H O U G H T- P R O V O K I N G R E A D “Yes,” he confirms, but as you’d expect his interest, while T H E 1 0 0 -Y E A R L I F E , O F F E R S S O M E T I P S O N H O W T O M A K E T H E M O S T O F L O N G E V I T Y tapping into the climate change and animal rights dis- course – “I personally don’t eat meat because of the cruelty factor” – is some way ahead of the investment curve. “Today plant-based meat is huge, so Beyond Burger, Fledgling wealth creators my child is 25, I may have another 30 or more customised approach than saying: Impossible Burger, and all that sort of stuff is taking off, Don’t model yourself on your parent’s gen- 40 years running this company. So, rath- “You need this amount of money to stop but we’re investing in non-animal cultured meats and eration; you’ve got to do things differently. er than grooming them to take over the working.” It’s asking: “What type of life derivatives like leather and milk. A few animal cells are Being an entrepreneur, particularly in your company, could they be looking for do you want to support? And how do you fed and over time they grow to be meat, or they grow to be 20s, is great because you’re going to learn ways to expand the business in other go about instructing your wealth and fish, and they don’t need any antibiotics [livestock medica- a lot, you’re going to learn about yourself dimensions and directions? your work to achieve that?” tion is a significant contributor to rising global antibiotic and what you’re good at, and you’ve got resistance], they don’t have any hormones, they don’t have time in a longer life to make mistakes, to Business owners Property markets and developers any waste, they don’t have any cruelty, they don’t have any educate yourself and to experiment and Staff retention is going to be tricky be- If I buy a house when I’m 30 or 35 and I own emissions. What’s not to like?” find out what you want to do. cause people are living multi-stage lives. it for a long time I’m going to have a lot of But will vegetarians and vegans eat these new prod- In terms of HR you’re going to have to wealth tied up in it. That’s going to create ucts that Jim says will be on our shelves by the end of the Head of the family have multiple entry and exit points and problems for other generations; you’re decade? “Not all vegetarians will accept it, but you’re not The good news is, if you’re living longer, more flexible career paths. going to start seeing a lot more multi- killing the animal. It’s a bit like me taking a biopsy from your wealth should accumulate for longer. With our outdated three-stage mindset generational housing developments. you. Am I doing you irreparable harm? No.” So, you’ve got more of it, but your family – education, work, retirement – everyone The other thing is that people are It seems ironic that we’re discussing a solution to a is going to get bigger. There are massive focuses on graduate intake. I can’t under- beginning to change their living patterns. major cause of antibiotic resistance in the home of a challenges when you go from a three- to stand why, because if you look at popu- Previously, people used to leave the city business that made much of its money from such drugs, a four-generation household. lation trends the larger group is made up when they stopped working, and they’d but also appropriate that the interview seems to have come If you’ve got a family firm, it gets really of those that are about to leave the work- go to the coast or the countryside. You’re full circle, from one existential question to another. complicated. Back when life expectancy force, rather than come in. How do I keep seeing many more people in their 70s and Nothing can be taken for granted anymore, but if Jim was 75 or 80, you’d hand over your com- them happy and engaged? Because you 80s wanting to stay in the city, but cities Mellon is right and significant numbers of people are soon pany to a 40-year-old. But if you’re living don’t want that experience to walk off. are not designed for older people, so we routinely living well into their 100s, the chances are that to 100, do you hand it over to a 70-year- It’s also less about money. I might say: need new housing stock. in the future we’ll be having to answer even more of these old? The person in charge is in charge for “I know you’ve got a young family and questions – and that people will be investing in sectors that a lot longer, and that has the potential to you need more time. You’ve been work- R E A D M O R E O F P R O F E S S O R S C OT T ’ S I D E A S don’t even currently exist. create all sorts of tensions. ing for us long enough, you can go down AND INSIGHTS ONLINE T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0 14 15 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
W E A L T H K E Y TA K E A W AY 22 Spotlight 2020 Analysis – The geopolitical The world’s UHNWI population is forecast to rise issues set to dominate 2020 27% over the next five years. However, the rapidly 18 changing geopolitical and regulatory environment, Onwards & Upwards 26 along with shifting societal attitudes to wealth, will Research – The inaugural Follow the Money require thoughtful reassessment of what it means to results of the Knight Frank Special report – Transparency be wealthy. Start your journey here Wealth Sizing Model and the movement of wealth
Global Data compiled by Knight Frank W The inaugural results of Knight Frank’s Research from multiple sources. For more information, contact new global Wealth Sizing Model Canada E flora.harley@knightfrank.com suggest that geopolitical uncertainty is Sweden A failing to slow wealth growth Global wealth L UK Russia Germany T W O R D S — F LO R A HA R L E Y Belgium S. Korea D ATA M O D E L L I N G — M A I I A S L E P T C O VA +44% H G E O S PAT I A L A N A LY S I S — M I K E D E N I C O L A I Japan US wealth Iran China France Turkey India Switzerland Asia’s forecast five-year Onwards We reveal the locations of the Hong Italy Saudi Kong UHNWI growth is double North Arabia America’s projected rate, ultra wealthy but also highlight Spain with high growth expected in India (+73%), China (+58%) forcasts which show dramatic and Indonesia & Upwards (+57%) Algeria Mexico Libya changes We revealin wealth the distributions locations of the Nigeria Singapore the near ultra future wealthy but also highlight Asia tops regional forecast growth Rank Country Individuals worth over US$30m 2019 UHNWI totals 2019-2024 growth forcasts which show dramatic 103,335 Asia 44% changes in wealth distributions Mozambique Indonesia 4,501 Africa 32% the near Global World future UHNWI UHNWI distribution rankings Mapped: number of UHNWIs Brazil Asia tops Asia tops regional regional forecast growth growth 5,931 Australasia 30% Number of Selected individuals countries andworth over ordered territories US$30mby rank Countries and territories are scaled by the number Rank Country Individuals worth over US$30m 2019 UHNWI totals Russia 2019-2024 growth of individuals worth over US$30m who live there 10,363 & CIS 23% 103,335 Asia 44% Individuals worth over US$30m Map key: colour corresponds to 110,846 Europe 23% Australia 1 US 240,575 UHNWI forecast five-year growth 4,501 Africa 32% North 249,900 22% World 2 UHNWI China rankings 61,587 America 3 Germany 23,078 5,931 Australasia 30% Number of individuals worth over US$30m Middle 14,178 17% 4 France 18,776 -15% +0% +75% East Russia 10,363 23% 5 Japan 17,013 & Latin CIS 14,190 17% America 6 UK 14,367 110,846 Europe 23% 17 Italy US 10,701 240,575 Argentina North 28 Canada China 9,325 61,587 249,900 22% America 39 Russia Germany 8,924 23,078 Middle 14,178 17% 4 10 Switzerland France 8,395 18,776 East 5 11 Spain Japan 6,475 17,013 The 14,190 Latin 17% US America 6 12 India UK 5,986 14,367 7 13 South Korea Italy 5,847 10,701 8 16 Saudi Arabia Canada 5,100 9,325 Economically, 2019 was outwardly a dominates, with more than double the According to our Attitudes Survey, Over the next five years we forecast 9 17 Brazil Russia 4,812 8,924 dominates the rankings with 1018 Australia Switzerland 3,796 8,395 240,575 UHNWIs, more than tumultuous year, with the International UHNWI population of Europe. on average 23% of UHNWI investment that global UHNWI numbers will grow 1119 Mexico Spain 3,790 6,475 Europe and Asia combined, Monetary Fund reducing its forecast for Asia is quickly closing the gap on portfolios are made up of equities, by 27%. Of the top 20 fastest growing 1220 Singapore India 3,306 5,986 accounting for almost global GDP growth from 3.5% in January Europe and our figures predict that by meaning that their performance makes countries that we measure, six are lo- +6% 1321 Austria South Korea 2,839 5,847 half the global 1622 HongArabia Saudi Kong 2,737 5,100 total 2019 to just 2.9% in January 2020 – 2024 it will be the world’s second larg- a large contribution to rising wealth. cated in Asia (led by India with 73% 1727 Turkey Brazil 1,913 4,812 growth in UHNWIs a ten-year low. est wealth hub, with forecast five-year Residential property also accounts growth), five are in Europe (led by Swe- 1828 New Zealand Australia 1,812 3,796 globally in 2019 Despite this, the world’s UHNWI popu- growth of 44%. However, even follow- for a large proportion of total UHNWI den with 47% growth) and three are in 1929 UAE Mexico 1,681 3,790 1,594 lation – those with a net worth of US$30 ing this heady rise Asia’s UHNWI cohort wealth – almost a third, according to Africa (led by Egypt with 66% growth). 30 20 Norway Singapore 3,306 2131 Ireland Austria 1,343 2,839 million or more – rose by 6.4%, according will still only be half the size of North the Attitudes Survey. Turn to page This reflects the positive sentiment 2235 South Hong Africa Kong 1,033 2,737 to our new Wealth Sizing Model. This is America’s, which is forecast to grow by 48 for our latest data on how prime captured in our Attitudes Survey, with 513,244 2738 Argentina Turkey 831 1,913 borne out by the results of our Attitudes 22% over the same period. property fared worldwide in 2019. 55% of respondents expecting their 2844 Nigeria New Zealand 724 1,812 2945 Indonesia UAE 675 1,681 Survey, in which 63% of respondents said The expansion in wealth during 2019 Heightened global geopolitical clients’ wealth to increase in 2020. was the total number of UHNWIs 50 30 Philippines Norway 569 1,594 their clients’ wealth had increased in is unsurprising, given the strong growth uncertainty contributed to a rise in Those in North America were the most worldwide in 2019. The +27% 3161 Monaco Ireland 335 1,343 five-year growth forecast 2019, with only 11% reporting a decrease. seen in many asset classes. Equity mar- the value of “safe haven” assets: gold bullish – 77% are expecting a hike. 3566 Iceland South Africa 269 1,033 would take the total 3870 Morocco Argentina 215 831 Globally, more than 31,000 additional kets, including stock exchanges in the hit a six-year high in September and, On page 20, we look at some of the to 649,331 113 44 Kenya Nigeria 42 724 UHNWIs were created in 2019, bring- US, Germany and Australia, have seen by the end of 2019, prices were some key economic and political themes 180 45 Zambia Indonesia 5 675 ing the total to more than 513,200. As double-digit growth, although the UK 16% higher than they had been 12 that could influence the fortunes of 50 Philippines 569 Source: Knight Frank Research 335 our graphic shows, North America and Japan saw more modest returns. months previously. UHNWIs this year – in either direction. 61 Monaco 66 Iceland 269 70 Morocco 215 T H E W EKenya 113 A LT H R E P O R T – 2 042 20 18 19 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T 180 Zambia 5
W THE KNIGHT FRANK The global millionaire population The global billionaire population continues to grow is set to rise after a dip last year E W E A LT H S I Z I N G M O D E L 63.9m 2,616 2,351 2,335 A 50.0m 46.9m 1,797 L 39.4m Wealth has become a defining economic When talking about net wealth, we now include T issue, and a clear understanding of who primary residences and second homes not Forecast Forecast H holds it, how concentrated it is, how it is owned primarily as investments, as this gives a spent and where it is moving in the world more accurate representation of total wealth. is critical to understanding future global Individuals pass wealth on via the places World UHNWI rankings economic outcomes. That is why we have they live, and borrow against them to fund Number of individuals worth over US$30m chosen to invest in the creation of our their investments. In addition, when house 2014 2018 2019 2024 2014 2018 2019 2024 Future gazing own proprietary Wealth Sizing Model. prices are rising consumers can experience a Source: Knight Frank Research Some of the highest and lowest positive wealth effect, supporting higher levels 1 India 73% World forecastUHNWI growth inrankings UHNWI populations Now, for the first time, we can estimate the of consumption, and – of course – vice versa. 3 Egypt 66% over the next Number five yearsworth over US$30m of individuals 4 Vietnam 64% growth of wealth populations in over 200 6 China 58% 240,575 countries and territories globally in any 7 Indonesia Five-year growth 57% Where Where is is wealth wealth growing? growing? 8 Tanzania 54% wealth bracket and run scenarios to help us AND OUR 1 India 73% Wealth advisors' advisors assessment assessment of of clients' clients wealth wealth change change Sweden 47% better understand risks and opportunities S U R V E Y S AY S . . . 15 3 Egypt 66% 24 Romania 42% for our clients. 2019 2020 prediction 4 Vietnam 64% 38 New Zealand 37% 6 China 58% 42 Malaysia 35% 240,575 % who say wealth has decreased/will decrease % who say wealth has increased/will increase 7 59 Indonesia UK 31% 57% Measuring the world’s wealth Where is wealth growing? 8 Tanzania 54% 1% North 89% 61 Poland 29% Results from our Wealth advisors assessment of clients wealth 3% change America 77% 15 Sweden 47% Taking established wealth estimation models 62 Singapore 29% Attitudes Survey Indian 24 Romania 42% (Davies et al. (2017)) as our starting point, 2019 202027% prediction 51% 64 Australia 29% 10% subcontinent 73% 77% 38 New Zealand 37% 68 Canada 28% we have estimated levels of net wealth on % who say wealth has decreased/will decrease Asia (excl Indian % who say wealth has increased/will increase 42 Malaysia 35% 6% 67% 73 South Africa 25% a location-by-location basis using balance 9% subcontinent) 63% 59 UK 31% of respondents 1% North 89% 81 UAE 24% 61 Poland 29% sheet data, where available, on households’ say North American 3% America Australasia 77%81% 82 Spain 24% 0% 61% 62 Singapore 29% wealth will Indian 83 Russia 23% financial and non-financial wealth. 27% 51% 64 Australia 29% rise in 10% 3% Europe subcontinent 73% 80% 85 Turkey 22% 2020 8%. (excl UK) 50% 68 Canada 28% 6% Asia (excl Indian 87 US 22% 67% 73 South Africa 25% Where data was not available, estimates 9%6% subcontinent) 63% 71% 89 Mexico 21% UK 81 UAE 24% 9% 50% were generated using econometric 3% 81% 91 France 21% Australasia 82 Spain 24% 11%.. 0% Middle 61% 63% 93 Brazil 20% techniques. Utilising estimated Gini Property 83 Russia 23% 11%.. East 48% 97 Uganda 20% 3% Europe 80% 85 Turkey 22% coefficients, we then drew the wealth Russia (excl UK) 13% 8%. 38% 50% 98 Zambia 20% 87 US 22% distribution curve for each location, 25% & CIS 44% 99 Philippines 19% 6% 71% 89 Mexico 21% makes up the largest proportion 9% UK calibrating this with our own data as 33% 30% 50% 100 Greece 19% of investment portfolios held Africa 91 France 21% 18% 43% 106 Ireland 17% well as other industry standard sources. by UHNWIs. Equities 11%.. Middle 63% 93 Brazil 20% 11%.. 107 Italy 17% 19% Latin East 48% 56% 97 Uganda 20% comes second 25% America 38% 110 Switzerland 17% at 23% 13% Russia 38% 98 Zambia 20% 111 Germany 16% This allows us to estimate the number 25% 2019 & 2020 regional average & CIS 44% 99 Philippines 19% 117 Kenya 14% of individuals in each location in the 12% saw33% wealth decrease in 2019 2020 global 2019 global average 19% 30% 100 Greece 12% predict a decrease18% in 2020 Africa average 63% saw wealth increase 125 Nigeria 13% 43% 106 Ireland 17% following wealth bands: 55% predict 40%+ 127 Taiwan 13% 19% Latin a wealth 56% Source: The Wealth Report 107 Italy 17% • HNWIs – those with net wealth Japan 12% 25% America 38% increase 133 110 Switzerland 17% UHNWI asset Attitudes Survey 140 South Korea 11% of US$1 million or more 111 Germany 16% allocations 2019 & 2020 regional average respondents say See Databank (page 99) for full 164 Thailand 7% • UHNWIs – those with net wealth 12% saw wealth decrease in 2019 European, Middle Eastern 2020 global 2019 global average 117 Kenya 14% 166 Hungary 6% Proportion of the 12% predict a decrease in 2020 and UK wealth will average results of our Wealth Sizing 63% saw wealth increase 125 Nigeria 13% of US$30 million or more, and Model and Attitudes Survey 171 Hong Kong 5% average UHNWI stay the same 55% predict 27% 127 Taiwan 13% a wealth 176 Monaco 3% • billionaires – those with net wealth investment in 2020 23% 133 Japan 12% increase portfolio invested 17% 177 Saudi Arabia 3% of US$1 billion or more. 140 South Korea 11% 201 Argentina -4% in each asset class 11% 164 Thailand 7% Property as an 8% 166 Hungary 6% investment Equities To forecast the number of individuals in Bonds/Fixed 171 Hong Kong 5% 1% 5% 3% each wealth band in the future, we have income 176 Monaco Cash/ 177 Saudi Arabia 3% drawn on data including predicted growth Currencies Private 3% Cryptocurrencies 201 Argentina -4% equity Collectables Gold/ in GDP, house prices, equity performance, precious interest rates and other asset classes that metals Source: The Wealth Report Source: Knight Frank Research individuals hold. Attitudes Survey T H E W E A LT H R E P O R T – 2 0 2 0 20 21 K N I G H T F R A N K .C O M / W E A LT H R E P O R T
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