The Timeline of Next - Cognizant
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The Timeline of Next
“The world is before you, and you need not take
it or leave it as it was when you came in.”
JAMES BALDWIN, novelist, poet, activist
In the decade to come, the world will be a much
different place, with some surprising new additions.
Call it “the perpetually new normal” — always
changing in reaction to whatever came just before.
To prepare for what’s ahead, we must consider not just the changes we see
now but also the new realities these changes will spawn further out into the
future. How will working from home recast the restaurant industry? Real estate?
Transportation? The design of cities? How will a year of homeschooling reshape
the feelings of this generation and the next about red-throated capitalism?
To formulate answers to these and many larger, more existential questions, we
need to think broadly, deeply and linearly and begin building hypotheses about
our future. This timeline is one way to do that.
In the midst of the global pandemic, we brought together a group of thought
leaders from Cognizant and our partners to extrapolate a vision of the
world of tomorrow. In this exercise, we explore the impact of “now” on the
future of education, work, economies and life itself.
Page forward and glimpse both what’s next and when’s next. We cite cutting-
edge research, invoke hard lessons from the past and envision a reality in
which new solutions to big problems will thrive.
While each essay is intriguing on its own, when seen together they convey
a visually moving and accurate pictorial of how our world is continuously
morphing and progressing over time. By thinking ahead and visualizing what’s
in store, we’re looking forward — literally and metaphorically — to what comes
next in our personal and professional lives.
3 / Timeline of Next
Index
6 20
Living Working
[ A ‘meet cute’ with technology. ] [T
he office will never be the same. ]
8 AL, Samantha and the
H 22 Virtual Sales Call: Real Results
Anthropomorphic Sound of the Future
24 Living at Work
10 Exploding the Nuclear Family
26 A Heads-Up on the New Office
12 It’s All in the Mind
28 15-Minute Spaces
14 Escaping the Matrix
16 Physician, Heal Thyself — Digitally
18 Machines of Loving Grace
30 36 54
Learning Economies About the authors
[ Education is now about breaking the rules. ] [T
ime for marketplace makeovers. ]
32 ‘Dear Noah, Welcome to the University 38 Surrender to the Rhythm
of Google’
42 Intergenerational War
34 You Say You Want a Revolution?
Class Dismissed 44 Capitalism 2.0
48 Not Pie in the Sky
“Sometimes I’ve believed as many
as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Through the Looking Glass
LEWIS CARROLL, novelist
5 / Timeline of Next
“Living well is the best revenge. If opportunity
doesn’t knock, build a door.”
The Sense of Humor
MA X EASTMAN, writer, poet, activist
Learning
Living
Working
Economies
Home is where the heart is, where the couch is, where
— the screen is? As many of us have clocked more time at home in the past year-plus
than ever before in our lives, we’ve also grown more reliant on our devices.
In the coming years, our lives will be defined by what we say to our devices — and what they
say back. Our health will be determined by the data we transmit to our caretakers and the
guidance streamed back to our apps and virtual assistants. In our dotage, we’ll be grateful
for the unflagging support of robots that tend to our every physical and psychological need.
As at-home life intensifies, we’ll look beyond the concept of the family unit, to pods, tribes
and kinships.
Most importantly, we’ll take stock of our newly intimate relationship with our devices and take steps to
right imbalances. Our collective psyche depends on it.
7 / Timeline of Next: Living
Soon, the voices won’t be just in our heads –
they’ll surround us in every piece of tech we use.
HAL, Samantha and the A
There’s a scene in the 2013 sci-fi which she responds: “You’re not,
romantic comedy Her that captures you’re talking to me.”
where artificial intelligence-powered
virtual assistants (VA) are heading. Set In a click or two, Apple and Amazon
just over the horizon in futuristic Los and Google (and every other tech
Angeles, the film chronicles the lonely vendor worth its salt) will have
life of techno-nerd Theodore Twombly, Samantha-like capabilities embedded
who makes a living writing personal as their UX, and digits will be well on
letters for people unable to effectively their way to becoming superfluous in
express themselves. a digital age.
Twombly acquires a new AI operating Clearly, it will take enormous
system designed to act as his VA. algorithmic smarts to imbue VAs with
Depressed and reeling from the anthropomorphic fidelity. But that’s
breakup of his marriage, Twombly the arms race of 2020-2025.
immediately falls head over heels for
his VA, Samantha. “I can’t believe I
am having a conversation with my
computer,” he reveals to Samantha
during their initial rendezvous. To
Anthropomorphic Sound of the Future
What the future sounds like evening — celebrities will, of course, As HAL, the seemingly omniscient
A world of Samanthas and Siris and monetize their velvet tones with digital supercomputer from the sci-fi thriller
Alexas (and every other old-fashioned rights management deals. 2001: A Space Odyssey warned us
Victorian name you care to resurrect when his cognition differed from his
And then, in a further click or three, human companion: “I’m sorry, Dave.
from the pages of Dickens and Hardy — VAs will truly read our minds — not
“Hey, Charity Picksniff — order my usual only finishing our sentences but also I’m afraid I can’t do that.” With more
pizza, will you?”) may seem unsettling at proactively anticipating our precise algorithmic thinking, VAs
first, but by mid-decade, they will be as that can countermand are not too
every need, want and desire (hopefully, far away. With a smile or a scowl, or
normal as ATMs, contactless payments within reason), even overruling
and in-car head-up displays. a countenance that augments their
us, where necessary — or at least purpose and conveys understanding
In another click or two, Samantha where human intelligence falls short that transcends the spoken word,
(or Charity) will change on-the-fly of the mark. e.g., in an entirely anthropomorphic
depending on our mood, circumstance way, their voices will fill our minds, and
and, of course, need. Women could opt our future.
for male voices, if desired. Men could
Alan Alper is Vice President of Cognizant’s
keep their female VAs with the lilting Global Thought Leadership Programs
intonation that rises at the close of each
statement that Siri made famous. Or
you’ll talk to a George (Clooney) in the
morning and a Nicole (Kidman) in the
9 / Timeline of Next: Living
Exploding the Nuclear Family
For 160 years, from the mid-1800s until Fast-forward to 2020, and in the midst With an eerie foreshadowing, David This was great for the economy: Every
about 2011, the average number of of another storm, the number of kids Brooks wrote an article in the March new household purchased its own
people in the average American and moving back in with their parents or 2020 edition of The Atlantic called, furniture, appliances, pots and pans,
European household steadily shrunk, parents moving in with their kids went “The Nuclear Family Was A Mistake.” In and a car (or two, and eventually four or
whittled down by industrialization, off the charts. Among the most tangible it, he noted that our modern domestic five) to motor into the city center. The
falling birth rates and a cultural shift things the coronavirus revealed was arrangements have “no shock explosion of households helped create
toward autonomy and individualism. how fragile family support systems were absorbers” when something goes a more dynamic and mobile society
In the wake of the Great Financial for so many people in the day-to-day wrong. Of course, in 2020 something — even as critical, invisible and unpaid
Recession, however, the trend began juggling of work, parenting, play and did go terribly wrong. labor within the household limited
reversing, with household size growing learning. With the on-again/off-again career opportunities for many women.
50% faster than overall population nature of schooling, more than one The dysfunction of families
growth. The economically insecure billion children globally fell behind The concept of the self-reliant, detached But now, that invisible labor is very
(the young, the unemployed or their expected development timetable, nuclear family is, of course, a relatively visible indeed. The choice between
underemployed, retirees) sought refuge and the mental health of parents modern invention, really only becoming working and parenting is stark,
in family groupings that provided shelter and caregivers began to deteriorate. mainstream after World War II with the especially for mothers. Many parents
from the storm. Even those with the luxury of working development of “suburbs” around the now find themselves assuming dual
remotely grappled with the sudden leafy edges of cities. Between 1950 and roles of parent and teacher — and often
difficulty — and moral quandary — 1970, for example, 83% of all population not performing well in either role.
of outsourcing childcare, cleaning and growth in the US occurred in the The calculus of a single, detached
cooking. suburbs. nuclear family unit doesn’t compute
anymore. And out of necessity, comes
invention.Perhaps it does take a village after all.
Who’s in your tribe? At heart, the family unit will always adapt
In the near future, an abundance of to economic and social change. But no
new family configurations will become family is an island, and it does perhaps
mainstream — from familiar variations take a village after all to raise new
like the multigenerational households generations ready and able to withstand
common in Asia and Africa, to new the existential shocks of the future. It’s
types of forged households built on not enough for households to cobble
what anthropologist Marshall Sahlins together an ecosystem of on-demand,
calls “kinships,” groupings formed borrowed or outsourced support —
around shared culture rather than we need a pack we can rely on. The
biology. The pandemic-inspired concept pandemic gives us the opportunity to
of “bubbles” created by families of redefine what that looks like.
school-aged children represent a Irene Sandler is a Vice President
conceptual foundation for household of Global Marketing at Cognizant
configurations, even after the pandemic
recedes.
11 / Timeline of Next: LivingIt’s All in the Mind
To keep ahead of artificial intelligence,
we need to optimize our real intelligence.
Every day for 10 weeks, professional While few of us will know the pressures
basketball player Paul George awoke of performing at the highest level of
at 7:00 AM for a daily COVID screening. our profession for a global audience
This was part of the National Basketball of millions of viewers, we can all relate
Association’s much lauded “bubble” to the burnout he expressed. The
approach to conducting business-as- prevalence of such feelings have
usual in the midst of very unusual times. risen so sharply among young people
The organization’s approach is the that some refer to millennials as the
best we’ve seen thus far for keeping a “Burnout Generation.” But it’s not just
workforce physically safeguarded from limited to this demographic. According
the perils of the pandemic. But what to an October 2020 Kaiser Family
about their mental health? Foundation survey, a majority of US
adults 18 and older (53%) said that
By week seven, George admitted the worry and stress related to coronavirus
toll that such a regimented life had has had a negative impact on their
taken on him. He began to suffer from mental health, up from 39% just a few
anxiety and depression under such months earlier.
restrictive living conditions. It was
affecting his mental wellness and his
performance on the court.Economic anxiety, climate anxiety and balance in the work-from-home world, With the combination of cultural shifts
device addiction are all combining including a “virtual commute” feature around the subject, resource allocation
in various forms to the detriment to create mental bookends for the and technological advancement, the
of our collective psyches. As our remote workday. It’s also partnering with future of mental health services will be
understanding of mental health meditation app Headspace to add a more accessible and effective than ever
continues to evolve, businesses will new “emotional check-in” feature. before. From Chief Purpose Planners
increasingly agree that ignoring it only defining the employee experience to
exacerbates the problem. Turning from Culligan Water has implemented AI-Assisted Healthcare Technicians
physical labor to knowledge work places well-being calls and provides stress using real-time biometric data from
even more importance on the mental management resources to help wearables, organizations will design the
wellness of the workforce. employees improve resiliency. Virgin jobs of the future with a thought toward
Trains in the UK advises managers safeguarding and strengthening their
Wellness for mind and body on how to support colleagues in need most valued assets: the minds of their
Companies like UPS have engaged and developed an app to provide employees.
in physical therapy routines and individualized mental health resources.
And Johnson & Johnson provides free Desmond Dickerson is a senior manager at
programming for years to alleviate Cognizant’s Center for the Future of Work
the physical toll that their workers therapy visits for employees. In the
experience on the job. What is the future, such offerings will be necessary
equivalent for workers’ mental fatigue? and expected across all industries.
Microsoft has announced new features
for its collaboration platform Teams
that aim to improve users’ work/life
13 / Timeline of Next: LivingEscaping the Matrix
Online all the time? Wired? Detox …
COVID-19 pushed us deeper into our The virtual is real
digital addictions. Internet use rose Digital acceleration will be good not just
70%, and social media traffic surged, in for business but also for the world. It will
some cases by 50%, compared with drive corporate productivity and profits,
pre-lockdown levels. Zooming came along with jobs and economic growth.
from nowhere to be the word of 2020. If harnessed correctly, it will promote
Is there any turning back? Are we all just sustainability and lead to medical
part of the Matrix now? breakthroughs.
Businesses think so; according to But for companies that neglect to
a recent study we conducted, 60% protect their staff from digital overload,
of businesses will accelerate digital it will lead to anxiety, depression and
transformation over the next one to two poor performance. And for those
years, 44% will shift physical jobs to individuals who undergo a digital
digital ones, and 32% will have more of overdose? Well, there’s no such thing
their staff work from home. as digital methadone.Rebalancing act
Here are four digital fail-safes that that will become commonplace as we emerge 3. Equip offices with recharge rooms and wellness spaces. During the first
from the pandemic and enter the next normal: wave of the virus, New York’s Mount Sinai Hospital converted a 3,000-square-
foot lab into a series of recharge rooms to help front-line healthcare workers
1. Modify the workweek. Organizations have already started to experiment with decompress. These rooms use plants, sunlight, multisensory experiences and
a shortened workweek to allow employees to unplug from technology. The other biophilic approaches to recreate natural settings. Companies will follow
four-day workweek has been tested by companies like Microsoft Japan, which this example by rethinking the full-office design to let outside air and nature in,
reported an increase in productivity of 40% when it gave employees Fridays off and disease out, while providing greater flexibility for new ways of working.
for a month. Having employees work fewer days also reduces company costs,
employee travel and carbon footprints. Even politicians are getting into the act. 4. Improve digital hygiene at the workplace. Companies will need to put more
The Spanish Más País party, for example, is lobbying for the government to give of their workers on “digital diets,” helping employees avoid excess digital
grants to companies that shorten the workweek. Some companies are going consumption while boosting collaboration and idea-sharing. Measures will
further, replacing expectations of time spent at work with measurements of include “no-tech” meetings and electronics-free rooms where workers leave
work delivered. their devices at the door; apps that enable workers to track their digital use;
regular work breaks away from screens; resources to help staff deal with
2. Encourage employees to disconnect. More companies are helping workers techno-complexity; buddy systems that allow workers to support each other
to unplug. Front App, a San Francisco-based startup, launched a program when detoxing; and workplace yoga and other activities to build “mindfulness.”
to award $200 to any employee who limits their screen time to less than 14
hours a month. Daimler allows its employees to auto-delete messages while The digital genie isn’t going back in the bottle anytime soon. But rebalancing
on vacation. More companies are prohibiting emails and texts after or before the online and offline is the hard work of the future — without some non-digital
work hours. Regulations, such as the “right to disconnect” in France, are downtime, minds and futures will be fried.
reinforcing the unplugging movement. Italy and Spain have already created Lou Celi is founder and CEO of ESI ThoughtLab
their own laws, and other countries, such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada
and India, are looking to follow suit.
15 / Timeline of Next: LivingPatient, Heal Thyself —
E ntering your local medical facility is like stepping back in time. You may
have gotten there in an Uber (ordered with a couple of screen taps) after
having a lunch delivered by DoorDash (with a couple of taps) after having
been on a Zoom all morning (after a couple of clicks). But walk through the
door of your doctor’s reception or ER, and you’re back in 1975, or 1950, or
1910, or 1850 ….
Starting soon (not a moment too
“Please can you fill out this form.” soon), healthcare will be in the middle
of a metamorphosis that by decade’s
“In triplicate.” end will make it as automatic and
“Can I see your insurance card again?” frictionless as our taxi rides and food
services and video calls. Unified virtual
“Please sign here, here and here.” and physical health experiences will be
the hallmark of future care anywhere,
“Oh, and here.”
with data, gathered virtually, available
“We’ll call you when the doctor’s ready ….” in the physical world (and vice versa).
When, 35 minutes later, you’re finally Two or three personal healthcare apps
admitted to see the doctor, the process supported by on-demand healthcare
starts again …. platforms will dominate the market,
competing on experience: the warmth
“So, what seems to be the problem?”
of their artificial intelligence (AI)
“Er, I just filled in a form with all the details.” personal health assistants and how
easily they help us make informed
“Well, why don’t you tell me again.” health decisions.
“OK …” In-home monitoring devices,
wearables and even tiny implants will
be sophisticated and commonplace,
streaming data to the apps so theyDigitally
The healthcare industry is far from healthy. The cure: a bracing dose of next-gen tech.
continually draw individualized Or the agent may prompt us to contact cancer or trace amounts of antibodies More care will follow standardized
portraits of our health data. Many of a physician or testing facility for follow- indicating an immune system disorder – “McHealth” procedures that are
the streaming devices will incorporate up. These will be as close as our nearest treatment can begin immediately. With affordable without insurance, just as
passive sensor technology and 5G pharmacy or grocery store clinic so we the digitization of technology, we will we pay for repairing wear-and-tear on
connectivity; once we choose to install a can fit the appointment into a regular receive much of the care in our homes our homes and autos. Health coverage
device, it will operate in the background, shopping trip vs. making it a special or at the pharmacy. In-home dialysis will be designed for catastrophic events
and we’ll hardly know it’s there. In doing event. is already available today, and major and care. In short, consumers will have
so, we won’t need to build and sustain medical centers are experimenting much of their care when and where
habits to benefit from the technology. We will own our personal health data with in-home delivery of complex, they want it, with the physical and virtual
regardless of where it originates. Apps high-acuity care. In five years, minimally experiences seamlessly intertwined, and
As healthy as your data lets you be will generate blockchain-based codes invasive surgeries will take place at the data from each readily available.
AI agents within the app’s platform will that represent our permission to share home.
monitor our data and immediately flag our clinical data and track who sees it In 2019, a time traveler from 1919 would
and analyze results outside our personal and how they use it. The codes will be Shopping for health have been entirely familiar with the
norms, including our sequenced as easy to use as debit and credit card Whether in-home or in-hospital care process and experience of going to her
personal genome. The virtual agent personal identification numbers (PINs). is required, AI-driven apps will enable local medical professional. By 2029, that
will text — or simply speak aloud — a Recommendations from the AI agent consumers to compare services, familiarity will be fading, and by 2039,
personalized recommendation, such as will guide test selection and results facilities and physicians, and select gone. The healthcare industry will be
making a specific dietary change based interpretation, which will upload to our the ones that meet their price and a modernized undertaking — fit, nay,
on how we metabolize food. chosen app and platform. quality parameters. Digitization and healthy for the rest of the 21st century.
If the same results indicate a problem is on-demand care anywhere, especially Trish Birch is SVP & Global Practice Leader,
brewing — say, early detection of colon in lower cost settings, will drive down Healthcare Consulting, at Cognizant
healthcare prices.
17 / Timeline of Next: LivingMachines of Loving Grace
As life expectancy continues to rise, meal tray is slapped down a couple
so do the challenges associated with of times a day, and a senior is left alone
our growing older population. In the to wander through the windmills of
next 30 years, the percent of the global their mind.
population over 60 is set to double. If
they’re lucky, these two billion people As in Robot & Frank, every senior
will remain capable and independent. If could do with an intelligent personal
they’re less lucky — and more typical — companion. In the eponymous 2012
they will come to rely on the kindness of movie, Frank, a retired thief, is given
their family, or strangers. a birthday gift by his son — a robot
companion to look after him. Initially
In the US, almost 1.5 million people suspicious, Frank warms up to his new
live in nursing homes — some of which pal when he realizes that Robot (never
are dreams, and some nightmares. The anthropomorphized with a name) is
difference lies in the quality of care — happy to help him carry out one last
which itself rests largely on the number assignment from his former career.
of staff employed. In the best-case Together they commit a burglary, and in
scenarios, nursing staff have time to sit the process, a bromance blossoms.
and chat with a resident and listen to an
anecdote for the 17th time. In the worst, aAs we age, nothing is more important than being in good hands. Increasingly,
these human hands will be supported by artificial ones.
A BFF for the elderly Of course, it’s not just robots that Surrounded by machines of loving
The residents of the Shin-tomi nursing have a big role to play in aging — with grace, seniors will rest in hands not
home in Tokyo aren’t looking to rob machine-learning-based software, quite human but more human than no
anyone (they want to remain residents, nurses, medical staff and other hands at all.
not inmates), but they’re very happy personnel will have accurate and
Andres Angelani is the CEO of Cognizant
with the robots that roam the corridors real-time information via “companion” Softvision
of their building, bringing food and apps. Next-gen software will analyze
laundry and doing the dusting, all facial expressions and subtle patient
allowing the human helpers to spend movements to better understand
more time bedside hearing that their needs, and provide healthcare
anecdote for the 18 time.
th professionals with timely information
exactly when it’s needed. With smart
Roughly 90% of nursing home patients software and hardware, AI will provide
who are able to walk need assistance huge benefits when it comes to better
or supervision. At 0.001 miles per hour, understanding nursing home residents
helping an old-timer to the bathroom — improving their mental and physical
can occupy a caregiver for half an hour. well-being, providing more accurate
Let Atlas help! Once you can dance treatments and, ultimately, making the
this well, it would be a breeze to shuffle golden years more golden.
along with Mrs. Bennet or Tanaka-san to
do the necessary.
19 / Timeline of Next: Living“If you think adventure is dangerous,
try routine: it is lethal.”
PAULO COELHO, novelistLearning
Living
Working
Economies
Once we ditched our commutes and uncomfortable
clothes, there was no going back. Now that our workplace isn’t confined by a particular
place, the idea of work is boundaryless.
Our appearance will be defined by our digital avatars. Our output will be
revealed at our augmented-reality-driven meetings through 3D graphics and
advanced analytics. When we do head into the office, it won’t be a cubicle
farm with a dingy breakroom but a multifunctional space fit for innovating,
hosting guests and partying with colleagues.
What we’ve learned is that work isn’t just about work — it’s about collaborating
and being collegial, and not just virtually. So even as we slough off the
workplace, we’ll also say hello to entirely new spaces that offer the comforts of
home, the social interactions of work, the immediacy of nature and a sense of
purpose, wellness and belonging.
21 / Timeline of Next: WorkingZoom is for amateurs — Oculus Quest 5 is for professionals.
Virtual Sales Call: Real Results
I just slipped on my new virtual reality As people join the VR-Zoom meeting, A multitude of media
headset and beamed into my 2:00 I note the avatars they each chose. As the meeting starts, I share the
VR-Zoom meeting with my sales team. Avatars say a lot about a team member’s business performance with the team
Today’s meeting is really important attitude toward their job and this through a 3D animation in the center of
given our third-quarter performance. I specific meeting. As I scan the room, the roundtable. Our latest sales results
need to motivate them to make a big a bubble pops up above each avatar, per region are shown colorfully on a
push for fourth-quarter revenue, so I’m sharing the individual’s latest sales map that hovers in front of everyone.
wearing my most professional avatar. results, projections and any actions they I then overlay the team’s revenue
My clothing is fresh and pressed, and owe me. I’m very surprised to see Bob projections on that, and my AI assistant
I make myself 10% taller just to show here. His status shows he’s on vacation, highlights them with a pulsing ring
some authority. I decide to use a cool and he’s already ahead of target. But his of color indicating confidence levels
King Arthur-style roundtable setting projected revenue is even higher, and in achieving the projections. We have
for this discussion so we all feel equal from his really sharp-looking avatar, I too many red regions, and even the
responsibility to improve our business. I can tell he wants to send a message Northeast region, highlighted in green,
think this is going to be a great meeting to everyone that he’s committed and is a concern because the confidence
for our business. overachieving. I send a private message level is shown as low. Carol, who owns
to Bob to thank him for his dedication. the Northeast, has been making high
projections for a while now, but this is
concerning.Instead of having everyone present As we wrap up the meeting, I remind
their status and plans, I turn to our AI the team what success will look like for
assistant and ask, “Which region needs them. Before we leave, Bob switches
the most focus?” Sure enough, over to his real image and location on
it identifies Carol’s region and presents a beach just to make us all smile. After
all the factors that indicate why there we end, my AI assistant publishes
is low confidence for meeting the the actions and new projections
projection. It also suggests that to fix to the entire team so we can track
this, we should raise prices 5%, dedicate our progress and ensure success
more time to clients and launch continuously.
a promotion tied to a major event
Bret Greenstein is Senior Vice President and
happening in three weeks to boost Global Head at Cognizant’s Data Practice
sales further. After Carol takes
these actions, the confidence level
immediately increases. If the confidence
level slips or has other issues, the
AI assistant will notify Carol and me
immediately.
23 / Timeline of Next: WorkingLiving at Work
Work’s not a place; it’s a verb.
Spurred by policy changes and public
health guidance, telehealth suddenly
became “a thing” in March 2020,
soaring 154% above 2019 levels. Even
with widespread vaccinations, doctors’
offices may never be as busy as they
once were. Going to the doctor’s
workplace won’t make sense when a
doctor’s work is simply a verb.
And what’s true for doctors will also be
true for most other bourgeois, non-
place-reliant work.
Writ large, this acceleration into an
untethered future of work will see the
phrase “working from home” seem
increasingly antiquated — language
from the before times. Soon, work will
be work, place will be place, and
the two will be increasingly independent
of the other.Pre-pandemic, we already saw “digital Not the ‘where’ but the ‘what’ Regardless, we do need to plan for major
nomads” comfortably working in So will WFH stay as high as 70%, as investments in home infrastructure:
cafes in Bali, a WeWork in Lima or on some companies are reporting, or go faster laptops and bandwidth, more
a plane, with 5G, Starlink and WiFi 6 down to under 10%? The answer will VPN and Zoom licenses, ergonomic
networks in hand, and Zoom, Teams, vary by industry, by country, by company, furniture. CIOs will have to face up to
Webex, GoToMeeting, Skype (actually, by role. Some employees have to be privacy, security and endpoints in
whatever happened to Skype?) all fired in the warehouse or on delivery routes. insecure locations around the world.
up, no slacking allowed, even in a world Others have home situations where All of this will add a level of complexity
of Slack. Some even started prepping WFH is miserable. Some are nervous we’ve never faced before.
with a TV-quality filming studio in the about crowds. Still others love that
basement. Sci-fi writer William Gibson famously
they have traded the commute for said, “The future is already here — it’s
Attitudes have not evolved quite as family time. just not evenly distributed.” Unevenly
rapidly, though. While “managing by We’re already diversifying employees distributed was a good description
walking around” worked well in the on so many other attributes — we of remote work 25 years ago. Now,
past, now, managing by outcomes is far can add a location attribute. Besides, hundreds of millions of workers and
more effective. Not only does this call we’ve learned to work differently managers have had a taste. It took
for trusting managers and self-driven during the pandemic. How many unbelievable acrobatics to get there in
workers; it also means eliminating software proposals in the future will a couple of weeks. Many are still getting
location bias. “Workers at home” have include multiple people demoing at a used to it. So, take it from this 25-year
long been considered “shirkers at home” prospect’s office? WFH veteran: living at work is not a bad
— now, that’s dinosaur talk. place to verb.
Vinnie Mirchandani is an advisor, author
and blogger covering IT innovation 25 / Timeline of Next: WorkingA Heads-Up on the New Office
Hint: When you do need to go there, you’ll actually want to.
COVID-19 has shown that “heads-down At the same time, though, our current Not just a place to work For some organizations, these three
work” can be done anywhere — typing, COVID-19 interregnum has shown In the future — maybe even the functions of the new office will be
coding, form-filling, et al. This has been that “heads-up work” is still best done summer of 2021 — an office will play contained within one space, say in
obvious to “future of” folks for years — face-to-face. While we’ve all coped withthree roles: a showroom, an R&D lab Hudson Yards or Canary Wharf for
many of whom (namely me and you endless video calls and the explosion and a party space. those who can (or want to) afford it.
dear reader) have been working out of in email and instant messaging, we can For others, (the majority) they will be
our homes for decades. For the majority all sense that there is still no substitute
The showroom will be a prestige place distributed among different spaces —
of workers, the forces of custom, inertia, for being “in the room” when we want to to impress clients, prospects, media and a single (fancy) floor of a townhouse in
conservatism and presenteeism has create, collaborate and close. analysts — “check us, we’re playas.” The Mayfair as showroom, a bare-floored
kept them stuck in their office cubicle. R&D lab will be where the secret sauce brick building in Shoreditch as lab, and
Given these new facts, the question is cooked — think Apple’s infamous the Porter Tun at the Brewery rented
But now, the penny’s dropped, and arises — assuming the vaccines are design lab, formerly overseen by Sir for the monthly get-together.
employees and employers alike have effective and we can leave our homes Jony Ive, where watches and phones
realized en masse that much bourgeois again one day (inshallah): What’s an and brain implants are dreamed of and In the near future, an office that sub-
white-collar work can get done from office for, and what should we do in it designed. The party space will be, well, optimizes these three functions in one
anywhere, and the idea that it must be when we’re there? (If the vaccines aren’t where the party’s at — monthly local “composite” space — a pretty ordinary
done in a cubicle in an office block an effective, and the virus further mutates, social/collaborative shindigs (rather small boardroom for the clients/
hour away from home is not strictly true. and we’re locked down forever, then all than the global/regional annual ones prospects, a beaten-up old sofa next
bets are off ….) that many large multinationals to the coin-operated drinks machine
traditionally hold) to develop the for R&D time, and a cubicle-filled open
“culture,” network and bond. floor with a DJ stuck in the corner for
the knees-up (i.e., 90% of current office
spaces around the world) — will beregarded as a relic from the before-
times. Hardly fit for purpose for our
brave new work.
The office is not dead, nor is the city,
but the daily suburban commute to
a cubicle will go the way of the Dodo in
the next 24 months, and only dodos and
dodo companies will maintain
that model.
The new office, pioneered by WeWork
before it blew itself up through avarice
and greed, will be a better place to do
the heads-up work that needs to be
done there. But it’s no place at all to do
the heads-down work that doesn’t.
Ben Pring co-founded and leads Cognizant’s
Center for the Future of Work
27 / Timeline of Next: Working15-Minute Spaces
The commute is dead. Good riddance.
Fighting your way through rush-hour traffic to get to the office
on-time is a feature of the past of work in pre-virus times. We don’t
have to trudge between train platforms and bus stations, or slowly
edge our way forward in bumper-to-bumper traffic anymore. We
move from bed to shower to kitchen for a caffeine hit, sit down
with our laptop or phone, and BANG!, we’re at work.
But …
Our bodies may be thanking us for the long overdue break from
the misery of the commute, but our brains aren’t, now that we
can work from anywhere/anytime — now that we have to work
anywhere/anytime/all the time.
Working from home, despite all the benefits, is proving incredibly
challenging for some. It’s difficult to avoid distractions – children,
chores, pets — at home. It’s easy to overwork, stretching your hours
to finish a project with no one around you to turn off the lights or
lock the building. Isolation and loneliness are creeping in, without
anyone to chat with in communal spaces, or to share a coffee with
on breaks.Just down the road a yoga studio and just about anything As our working lives become more
As working from home becomes else you can think of. They’re already isolated, these new spaces will
embedded deeply into our lives, and becoming a reality. US startup Reef become increasingly important in
remote office space takes over our is on a mission to build cities where creating a company culture. Instead
home space, where can we find our own everything people need can be of encouraging employees to sit alone
space? We’re going to need somewhere found within a short walk or bicycle behind screens, the new 15-minute
new — a third space outside of the ride. To this end, Reef is transforming spaces will provide a welcoming
home and the traditional office, its real estate network of more than environment that promotes social
where people can work and socialize, 4,500 parking lots and garages into interaction and breeds a sense of
prioritize well-being, and be part of the neighborhood hubs. It’s partnering belonging. Even as employees move
community without upping our risk of with other players for micro-fulfillment, from full work-from-home status in
contracting the virus. We need these e-bikes, pop-up clinics and urban the years and months ahead, we’re
spaces to be within a 15-minute walk farming. seeing the foundation for a new space
or bicycle ride/drive. Many people will revolution being built now. The question
In Saudi Arabia, the LINE is designed is, which 15-minute space will you be
use these new spaces to replace the as a 106-mile belt of communities
social networks previously built around working in before the decade is out?
connected without the need for cars or
the office. These spaces will work as roads. The plan is for residents to have Manish Bahl is a Cognizant Associate Vice
refueling centers for our minds and access to nature and all their daily needs President who leads the company’s Center for
bodies as we tackle our workloads. the Future of Work in Asia-Pacific
within a walking distance of five minutes.
These not-quite-work, not-quite-home An ultra-high-speed transit system
spaces could entail a hotel, a restaurant, ensures no journey will take longer than
a local watering hole, an art exhibition, 20 minutes.
29 / Timeline of Next: Working“A rat in a maze is free to go anywhere,
as long as it stays inside the maze.”
The Handmaid’s Tale
MARGARET AT WOOD, novelistLearning
Living
Working
Economies
Long ago, societies decided that learning took place within four walls. We
agreed that curricula should be based on age-old tenets, and that teaching models
should be one-way and instructor-led. Somewhere along the way, we bought into the
idea of (really expensive) four-year degrees that released highly indebted young talent
into the world.
All these models are breaking in the face of today’s realities. As learning has become less
classroom- and campus-based, our concept of it has changed. Sources of funding will shift
from endowments and federal loans, to Big Tech. Yellow highlighters will give way to video
game-like lessons and AI-driven personalized support. Output will be skills, not degrees.
Learning will become more fluid, democratized and flexible, better aligned with a complex
and fast-changing world.
As learning itself becomes more about engagement, collaboration, resourcefulness and
problem solving, the “classroom” will be life, itself.
31 / Timeline of Next: Learning‘Dear Noah, Welcome
to the University of Google’
In the wake of the pandemic and the The goal? To democratize learning. The
pivot to remote learning, many colleges how? By partnering and co-branding
are finding themselves in deep doo- with some of the biggest players in tech,
doo. With cash-strapped students and using state-of-the-art digital tools.
(and their parents) shelling out first-
class fare for cattle-class pedagogy, Welcome to the University of Google
university provosts and presidents are (or Amazon, Facebook, Apple … TikTok,
fighting back the outraged howls of etc., etc.).
their “consumers” with gritted teeth, Similar to land grants that launched
knowing only too well (as they admit to American institutional flagships like
themselves in the wee, wee hours) that the University of California at Berkeley,
the cash-cows of the past are no longer a “digital grant” will ensue (sourced
sacred and are in peril. by a 1% digital sales tax), underwriting
Spurred on by the iconoclastic, so- access to the highest quality distance-
tough-you-gotta-love-it tough love credentialing. As this new educational
of professional pontificators (and model becomes mainstream, it will
part-time professors) like NYU’s result in more affordable and faster
Scott Galloway, many universities and credentials, tightly aligned with fluid
colleges will use technology to get with employment markets and fine-tuned
the post-pandemic program and tear across a career(s). In time, skills will
down their walls. become the vernacular of the quad, not
the anachronism of a degree.Today’s ‘hedge funds with classrooms attached’
will be replaced by skills factories.
Getting out of the dorm room majority of students, gaining access
The coronavirus is galvanizing this to a credentialed skill or skills will be
change. The best colleges and the thing – similar to a latter-day GI Bill
universities will empower lecturers to enjoyed by their great-grandfathers and
engage in scaled experiments with grandmothers before them.
online media. Rote classroom activities By making the onramp to higher-ed
will give way to a fusion of lesson plans more fair and far more accessible
with videogame-like distance learning, through deep-pocketed alignment
all led by instructors with captivating with tech, we’ll be better able to
online personalities that foster far better grapple with a world awash with
student engagement than physical change (technological, societal, political,
classrooms alone ever did. ecological) and more complex and
At the same time, the change won’t more intense than ever before. In doing
mean turning the beautiful, venerable so, we’ll open 10X new opportunities
college campuses of yesteryear into for personal education and levels of
an educational “Rust Belt.” On the employment for billions, and harness
contrary, with a vastly broadened basis the collective genius in place to solve the
of scaled funding, it will allow those greatest issues of our time.
that cross over, post-COVID, to thrive. “Go UG! Go UG! Go UG!”
For those students who want a full
on-campus experience, it will still be Rob Brown is Vice President of Cognizant’s
Center for the Future of Work
available (still at a price). But for the vast
33 / Timeline of Next: LearningYou Say You Want A Revolution?
Class Dismissed
Ah, 2020, when one of the few things In much the same way that work has In addition to the bigger changes of
people agreed on was that teachers been forever altered, compliments of nomadic families and shifting friendship
don’t make enough money. COVID-19, so too has our perspective circles, other more subtle changes
on education. In the coming decade, will center around a new and improved
While we magically discovered our our views on classic education will be hybrid schooling model, informed
appreciation for teachers and the role seriously challenged, as will the concept by our learnings from the post-
of education, many families used the of the physical school building as a pandemic era.
global pandemic to try something new, place of learning.
such as embracing homeschooling The hybrid schooling model will typically
or bringing back tribal education in In the near future, learning experiences split the weekly learning cycle into three
the form of podding or teaming up won’t be limited to an 8-to-3 school days at home and two days in school or
with other families to share childcare, day, in-person classrooms and the will evenly divide students’ time between
education and socialization duties. occasional museum field trip. Instead, a home and school each day. This model
student’s time and place of learning will could help fulfill parental demands that
As we focus more than ever on the include remote destinations — even existed even before COVID-19, such as
tools and skills that kids will actually living abroad or visits with relatives, smaller class sizes, the opportunity to
need for what lies ahead — skills like wherever they reside. incorporate special-interest coursework
flexibility, grit, empathy, resourcefulness, centered on religious or cultural
resilience and collaborative problem preferences, a more focused learning
solving — we’re also rethinking exactly environment, less time wasted during
what school is and where learning the school day and more individualized
should take place. attention for students.Education is no longer by the book.
Rather than retreating entirely to performance, as well as their ability to Education visionary and technologist
homeschooling environments, hybrid shape young people into positive and Seymour Papert once defined the
schools will combine the benefits of contributing members of society with goal of education: “that each individual
parent-driven instruction with those social intelligence and creative thinking will come out with a sense of personal
delivered through traditional schooling as a chief focus. self-respect, empowerment and love for
environments. Students will be able to yourself, because from that grows all the
socialize with their peers on a regular An active learning model other loves: for people, for knowledge,
basis, as well as access expanded To excel in this new learning model, for the society in which you live.”
curriculum options. With fewer students will need to co-create the
objections and more diverse funding curriculum and the learning experience. This lesson will be the new hybrid
streams, additional families will truly With a project-based approach — in schooling mandate: The best learning
curate and personalize their children’s which learning happens in real and takes place when the learner takes
education. relevant settings — a common purpose charge and achieves a sense of
can be achieved when teachers personal control. By reimagining
Perhaps most important, the model will and students learn together. To get the place and time for education,
enable us to prioritize the development there, the learning environment must and seeing education in broader
of students’ emotional intelligence be designed to foster rich and deep terms, hybrid schooling will prepare
to contend with the challenges of emotional connections — with tomorrow’s leaders to rule tomorrow’s
learning. Whether it’s self-awareness, lots of room for experimentation, world.
mindfulness or mastering connections celebration and sharing. Fausta Ballesteros is Vice President of
with others, the attributes that hybrid Communications and Marketing and Head of
schooling educators can inculcate will New York Studio, Cognizant Softvision
form the basis of how we assess their
35 / Timeline of Next: Learning“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” SOREN KIERKEGA ARD, philosopher, poet, theologian
Learning
Living
Working
Economies
Through crisis and calamity, one truism remains:
Money still makes the world go around. It’s just that the way it’s done will soon look
a lot different.
In the face of growing inequity and mounting debt, capitalism will remain intact but will
incorporate mechanisms from other economic systems and labor constructs that address the
financial distress of the pandemic and take the pressure off future generations to pay for it.
Hard-hit industries like restaurants will adopt new business models that redefine their
value proposition and recover lost income. Businesses will find even more ways to turn
consumers’ personal data — even their heart rhythms — into profits. And societies will devise
entirely new and fungible sources of value, like carbon allowances or personal data exchanges.
As always, there will be money to be made. The systems for making and exchanging it, though,
will never be the same.
37 / Timeline of Next: EconomiesSurrender to the Rhythm
Rhythm
Rhythm
Ryhthm
Rhythm
Your heart is unique —
you always knew that, right?
Facial recognition was a trendy topic about a decade ago. The
idea of a machine being able to recognize you, speak to you and
personalize experiences for you while doing the same for every
other passerby — it was the stuff of Minority Report, Blade Runner,
1984 and 100 other dystopian visions.
Strange that we were all so suspicious.
But the land of the machines faced its own disaster when the pandemic struck
— all these humans were suddenly wearing masks. “Where’s the face?” “Cannot
compute.”
The problems with facial recognition as a biometric identifier go back further than
2020. Beyond the ethical debates, there were a number of practical challenges that
simply couldn’t be solved for.
At least as early as 2017, US Special Forces were already hunting for alternative approaches to
facial recognition. Reliable ID methods were (and are) critical for mission success. “What if the
subject now has a beard?” “What if they put on sunglasses?” “What if they paint their face?”Answer: Project Jetson military product that quickly gained
What if we could point a laser at a non-military uses.
person — turned sideways, sitting down, Going invisible
in a jacket — and simply recognize
Already, infrared lasers are everywhere.
them? What if their body itself was like
During the pandemic, you may have
a fingerprint — captured once,
had your temperature checked from
identifiable forever?
a tablet when walking into a building.
Consider that every person in the world When boarding a flight or entering a
has a unique heart rhythm. Combine hotel, an attendant might have scanned
infrared lasers with a vibrometer, a your forehead with a thermometer gun.
database and an algorithm built to Both show infrared lasers at work.
identify that rhythm, and you have
Even the iPhone is a Class 1 Laser
Jetson, a device that can detect an
Product – it has used infrared lasers
individual’s unique cardiac signature
for years, mostly for facial recognition.
with an infrared laser, brought to you by
When the iPhone 12 Pro came out in
the Pentagon.
2020, LIDAR was included, and your
The thing about lasers is, distance phone could suddenly scan the surface
doesn’t really matter — no Zooming of Mars ... or your bedroom. Either way.
required; masks optional. Biometric,
>>
perfectly accurate personal identification
based on heartbeat — just another
39 / Timeline of Next: EconomiesWe’ve become more and more For the consumer world, though, Hello, CardioID Applications will extend beyond retail.
accustomed to those boring, quiet wearables aren’t an option. Companies In the near future, you’ll be able to It could be used as a secure password
lenses projecting invisible light onto need to recognize people walking in the visit a store with infrared systems in system, or marketers could gain another
our world, onto us. As the contactless door, know their preferences, confirm place, be automatically logged in and metric on returning customers — a win
movement continues, more uses of that their identity and associate all of that begin having experiences that just feel for the business that consumers would
light will be explored. with a bank account. Nobody would put more relevant. Let’s call it CardioID. never notice.
on a bracelet to make this easier. Your signature wouldn’t be referenced
Even in 2020, heartbeat identification Consumers might be wary that such a
had already been in use for a few years Thankfully, NASA has made innovation against a name or any personally system could threaten their anonymity;
by major manufacturing and research here a bit simpler, with its HeartBeatID identifiable information — it’s more like however, in time, the security and
facilities, though the technology patent. Startups and the enterprise alike you’d been cookied. privacy implications could be covered
had early challenges. Here, security can easily license this technology and by extending regulations such as the
was critical, and constant authentication build solutions. GDPR — “by entering this establishment,
— made possible by wearables — you agree to ….”
was valued. So where will that get us?
In the near future, you’ll be able to visit a store with infrared systems in place,
be automatically logged in and begin having experiences that just feel more relevant.Here’s the thing with biometrics: For all intents and purposes, CardioID
They’re forever, immutable. This means will take our unique heart rhythms and
CardioID would be a highly secure turn them into something between
mechanism for seamlessly identifying a password and a personalizer — truly a
yourself. Couple CardioID with facial future with heart.
recognition, and you’ve got true
Clayton Griffith is the Director of Product
two-factor authentication for walking Marketing at Cognizant Softvision
into a store, grabbing what you want
and leaving, with payment automated
through a connection with your
bank account.
41 / Timeline of Next: EconomiesIntergenerational War – What Is It Good For?*
The young will pay for the errors of their elders. Or will they?
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, What to do? What policymakers usually Our Western “system” only works (it Thinking of tomorrow, today
anyone who questions the economic do – kick the can down the road and will become more and more obvious) In the next decade, a world will emerge
costs of the lockdown is seen as a expect the next generation to pick up when people feel they have a stake in in which every citizen receives a
nutter or an irritant. But the question of the tab. But, now, not so fast. “Nice try, its future. The ideas that have hardened monthly bitcoin deposit in their digital
who will pick up the tab for shattered Boomer. Your mess — you fix it. Not our into modern capitalist economies — wallet funded by a digital Tobin tax.
economies will only become more problem.” growth, accumulation, investment — Stress and health levels will drop as
pressing as the bug recedes and imply that tomorrow will be better than Universal Basic Income payments
survivors re-emerge from their cribs. Imagining the young would pay today. While pre-capitalist societies
the price for COVID is increasingly cover basic food and subsistence
Governments have eased trillions of looked to the past — to the Dreamtime, costs. People will focus on the work
dollars into the system to keep people unimaginable. Those born after 1980 paganism and old religions – capitalist
already face the scariest financial future that really matters — perhaps building
safe and economies afloat, but as societies look to the future — to new a social enterprise, using seed money
sure as night follows day, the ensuing of any generation since the Great inventions, broader horizons and
Depression. Debt levels are bound to channeled down from the world’s
recession will need trillions more. In greater abundance for everyone. But first global automation tax, expressly
the not too far-off future, the debt looks soar, while homeownership, decent with rising inequality, imminent climate designed to kickstart the international
to grow so huge that it doesn’t bear pensions and “careers” will all become crisis and a pandemic, the system is rife cooperative movement.
thinking about. totems from a bygone era, out of for another Bretton Woods moment: a
reach for vast swaths of the working new rules-based order that establishes
population. a fair, equitable and resilient system fit
for young and old in the modern age.You can also read
