The Savills Housing Sector Survey - Thinkhouse

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The Savills Housing Sector Survey - Thinkhouse
UK Residential – June 2019

 REPORT
                   The Savills Housing
Savills Research
                   Sector Survey 2019
                                                     In association with
The Savills Housing Sector Survey - Thinkhouse
Foreword

                                                                                                                       A renewed sense of purpose

                                                                                                                       There is more expectation on           of land remains the biggest single      Contents
                                                                                                                       the social housing sector than         factor impeding increased housing
                                                                                                                       at any time in recent memory.          delivery. Skills and organisational     4 Seven takeaways
                                                                                                                         First, pressure on new housing       capacity (exacerbated by Brexit),       In a rush? Here are the
                                                                                                                       delivery continues in the face of      remain a challenge, mostly so for       key findings from our
                                                                                                                       a slowing housing market and the       local authorities.                      housing sector survey.
                                                                                                                       uncertainty of Brexit. Along with        Unsurprisingly, lack of grant
                                                                                                                       this, and in the long shadow of        funding still inhibits development.     5-7 Drivers of change
                                                                                                                       the Grenfell tragedy, the Social       In the face of a more challenging       We examine four
                                                                                                                       Housing Green Paper, the Hackitt       environment for the cross-subsidy       major drivers to the
                                                                                                                       Review and the likely review of        model, there is a clear role for        housing sector: Brexit,
                                                                                                                       the Decent Homes Standard              government here.                        homelessness, older
                                                                                                                       have led to a sustained focus on         Partnerships have been active         persons’ housing and
                                                                                                                       compliance of existing stock.          in the sector and the clear message     modern methods of
                                                                                                                                                              from the survey is that this trend      construction.
                                                                                                                         But, the results from our 2019
                                                                                                                       survey reveal that there are           will continue. Whether these are
                                                                                                                                                                                                      8-9 Land availability
                                                                                                                       also exciting new opportunities        within the sector, with government
                                                                                                                                                                                                      There is greater activity
                                                                                                                       in the sector.                         bodies or with private partners,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      in land-led development,
                                                                                                                         Perhaps the most notable is          well-delivered partnerships
                                                                                                                                                                                                      but competition for land
                                                                                                                       the potential increase in delivery     spread risk, unlock opportunity         is intensifying.
                                                                                                                       from local authorities following       and accelerate delivery.
                                                                                                                       the lifting of the HRA debt cap.         Encouragingly, the strongest          10-11 Finding their place
                                                                                                                       Encouragingly, 70% of local            message from the research is the        Can local authorities and
                                                                                                                       authorities who responded to           renewed sense of social purpose.        For Profit Registered
                                                                                                                       our capacity survey are planning       This comes through emphatically         Providers bring higher
                                                                                                                       to increase their delivery of          in our survey and focus groups.         delivery and innovation
                                                                                                                       affordable homes – 25% expect          With such a shared drive toward         to the sector?
                                                                                                                       a big increase.                        common goals, we are optimistic
                                                                                                                         The rise of For Profit Registered    the sector will continue to innovate    12-14 Collaborations
                                                                                                                       Providers has also attracted much      and adapt to fulfil its critical role   Partnerships can open up
                                                                                                                       attention, both as an opportunity      in housebuilding and society.           opportunities, accelerate
                                                                                                                       and possible threat. Sage has                                                  delivery and reduce risk.
                                                                                                                       started to build real scale, and
                                                                                                                       L&G has entered the sector with                                                15 Contacts
                                                                                                                       big ambition. Our report shows
THE SAVILLS                   understand how the sector      about their development     discuss both surveys.
                                                                                                                       that 72% of respondents believe
                              feels about the scale of       plans and priorities,       The group represented a
HOUSING SECTOR                                                                                                         FPRPs have a role to play in solving
                              the housing crisis, housing    financial capacity and      cross-section of the sector                                          Robert Grundy
SURVEY 2019                                                                                                            the housing crisis providing they
                              priorities, and how well       issues, and the impact of   and the aim was to expand                                            Head of Housing
                                                                                                                       remain focused on tenant welfare.
                              the sector is responding.      policy changes. Data was    on any interesting results,                                          020 7409 5995
                                                                                                                           Modern methods of                  rgrundy@savills.com
This survey, in association                                  collected in March and      share experiences and
with Social Housing           The capacity survey            April 2019. We received     discuss issues outside the
                                                                                                                       construction also represent
magazine, is the result       This focused on senior         just over 130 housing       survey questions where
                                                                                                                       a big opportunity. They are
of two surveys and two        director-level employees       association responses       relevant. The participants    attracting significant investment
focus groups.                 at housing associations        (representing more than     are not identified due        and the sector will see an increase
                              and people in equivalent       half the total homes in     to the confidential and       in use over the next five years.
The sentiment survey          positions in local authority   the sector) and 120 local   sensitive nature of some        Against these exciting new
This was completed            housing teams. For the first   authority responses.        of the topics.                opportunities, many of the old         Luke Cross
by senior professionals       time, the capacity survey                                                                challenges remain.                     Editor, Social Housing
working in the housing        had questions focused          Focus groups                                                As the sector increasingly looks     020 7772 8468
sector and we received        on local authorities and       We invited a small group                                  to move from Section 106 to            socialhousing.co.uk
more than 500 responses.      housing associations.          from the capacity survey                                  land-led development, availability
The purpose was to            Respondents were asked         to two focus groups to

                                                                          2                                                                                                               3
Report overview                                                                                                                             Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brexit has had the biggest impact
                                                                                                                                                                                                           on construction industry capacity
                                                                                                                                                                                                           and operating costs, affecting the
                                                                                                                                                                                                           sector’s development activities

                 7 key findings                                                                                                              Drivers of change
                 New providers, partnerships and priorities. Here are the defining                                                            Which issues are rising up the housing priority list?
                 points that will shape the future of the social housing sector
                                                                                                                                              Words Josh Rose-Nokes

                                                                         X                                                                    1. Brexit                                       activities is now 33%. That is up from
                                                                             Home
                                                                                                                                              With the uncertainty of Brexit continuing       27% in last year’s survey.
                                                                             Pay rent
                                                                                                                                              to loom over the housing market,                   However, respondents agree that the
                                                                                                                                              respondents view Brexit in a more negative      capital markets seem largely unaffected,
                                                                             Services
                                                                                                                                              light than they did in 2018.                    with cheap debt readily available despite
                                                                             Maintenance
                                                                                                                                                 Brexit has had the biggest negative          the shadow of Brexit. They identify bigger
                                                                             Contact
                                                                                                                                              impact on construction industry capacity        challenges to funding, which, in the case
                                                                             Log out
                                                                                                                                              and operating costs, affecting the sector’s     of housing associations, are gearing and
                                                                                                                                              development activities. It has also driven      cash-flow capacity. Local authorities cite
                                                                                                                                              up operating costs in the sector, affecting     financial capacity as their top funding
                                                                                                                                              materials and labour prices. Our focus          barrier, an unexpected response, perhaps,
                                                                                                                                              groups feel that Brexit is exacerbating         given the abolition of the debt cap.
                 1. For the social good                                 4. Tenant engagement                                                  existing problems, such as retaining and
                 There is a renewed focus on social                     Issues surrounding tenant voice have climbed up the                   recruiting staff.
                 purpose within the sector, with 84%                    agenda. This year, 59% say tenant services have become                   The sector is more exposed than ever            Respondents agree that the capital
                 saying that delivering social rented                   an increased priority, compared with 34% in 2018.                     to housing market fluctuations, and                markets seem largely unaffected,
                 homes should be the sector’s top                                                                                             Brexit-related sentiment is having a negative
                 priority – up from 65% last year.                                                                                            impact on the housing market (see our              with cheap debt readily available
                                                                                           5. Higher standards                                2019 Spotlight: Mitigating Market Risk).           despite the shadow of Brexit
                                                                                           Improving standards for existing                   The proportion of respondents who are
                                                                                           residents has a greater emphasis –                 concerned that a Brexit-related market
                                                                                           78% point to increased investment                  downturn would affect their development
                                                                                           in health and safety over the past
                                                                                           two years. This has not impacted
                                                                                           development capacity as things                                                      Political influence To what extent do you think Brexit will
                                                                                           stand according to the focus groups.                                                impact on the following aspects of your organisation’s activities?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Key    Positive impact    No impact     Negative impact
                 2. Land in demand
                 78% of housing association respondents say             6. Local authority capacity
                                                                                                                                           Construction industry capacity
                 availability of land is a standout factor preventing   With the lifting of the HRA debt cap, local authorities are
                 the sector building more homes. That said, it’s a      expected to add significantly to new affordable housing
                 slight improvement on 84% in 2018. There is a clear,   delivery. Some 70% of local authorities that responded                            Operating costs
                 sustained appetite to be more active in strategic      plan to increase their delivery of affordable homes, while
                 land markets, with 46% of respondents planning         25% expect a big increase.                                           Demand for open market sale
                 to acquire strategic land in the next five years.                                                                             & shared ownership homes

                                                                                                                                                       Availability of staff

                                                                                                                                                        Financial capacity

                                                                                                                                      Number of people in need of housing
                                                                        7. Partnerships and collaboration
                 3. For Profit Registered Providers                     Partnerships will continue to play
                 Can For Profit Registered Providers                    an important role in accelerating                                                                      0%             20%                 40%              60%              80%                  100%
                 (FPRPs) help solve the housing                         delivery and spreading risk.                                                                                                            Proportion of respondents
                 crisis? Some 72% of respondents                        However, good governance and                                                                                                                                                    Source Capacity survey
                 believe they can. However, 65%                         a focus on long-term relationships
                 say FPRPs are less concerned with                      are vital. The partnerships being
                 tenant welfare than traditional RPs.                   most actively undertaken, planned
                 The message from the focus groups                      or considered by housing
                 is that FPRPs can have benefits as                     associations and local authorities,
                 potential innovators and disruptors.                   remain within the sector.

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Drivers                                                                                                                                                                   Drivers

                                                                                                                                         63%
                                                                                                                                         Of the 90,000 homeless
                                                                                                                                         households in the UK,
                                                                                                                                         63% are in London

                                        2. Homelessness                                        which are in London. A study by Crisis                              The private sector is also part of the                                                          New construction Proportion of development programme delivered by MMC
                                        Homelessness is one of the most visible                reports that more than 30% of statutory                          solution. It provides leased temporary and
                                        symptoms of the housing crisis. It has                 homelessness acceptances come from                               settled accommodation, and short-term                                                                                                                       Key   We don’t have a development programme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Less than 10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-100% 100%
                                        risen quickly up the domestic political                the private rented sector.                                       crisis relief housing to help local authorities
                                        agenda and become an increased priority                   That makes housing the homeless                               fulfil their legal responsibility. Almost half                                                                           8%                                                        5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5%
                                        for respondents since last year’s survey.              a complex policy issue, spanning both                            of respondents (47%) are building short-term                                                                                        6%                                   7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8%                                                          14%
                                        The proportion of respondents who place                the social and private rented tenures, and                       crisis relief housing, for example.
                                        housing homeless households as their top               welfare policy more generally. The response                         Our focus groups noted that longer-term
                                        priority has increased from 31% to 39%.                is typically shaped by both the political                        accommodation alone is rarely enough for
                                           According to MHCLG, there are more                  imperative and the legal responsibility,                         those who have been homeless for some time.
                                        than 90,000 homeless households living                 with both housing associations and local                         Additional services are needed to avoid
                                        in temporary accommodation, 63% of                     authorities invested in finding solutions.                       people living as if they were still homeless.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Plan to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Currently                                              using MMC
                                        Who do you think the sector should be trying to house? Three groups                                                                                                       4. Modern methods                                                      uses MMC                                                  in five
                                        stand out as clear priorities, but only homelessness has increased from 2018                                                                                              of construction                                                                                                               years’ time
                                 100%                                                                                                                                                                             Our capacity survey indicates that the
                                                                                                                                                                        Key    2018           2019                                                                                                                       38%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sector is moving towards more modern
                                 90%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  methods of construction (MMC). Some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  69% of respondents aim to use these                                                                                                                          31%
                                 80%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  methods to deliver between 10% and 50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  of their development programme in the
     Proportion of respondents

                                 70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  next five years. This is a big shift from
                                 60%                                                                                                                                                                              current utilisation.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The 5% of respondents who plan to                                        65%
                                 50%                                                                                                                                                                              deliver 100% of new homes through using
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MMC tend to be smaller with smaller
                                 40%                                                                                                                                                                              development targets.                                                                                                                        Source Capacity survey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MMC directly addresses some of the
                                 30%                                                                                                                                                                              challenges faced by the sector in terms of       drawn down earlier, reducing interest                  Those housing associations not in a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  shortage of materials, skills and construction   payments on capital to fund developments.           position to invest in their own manufacturing
                                 20%                                                                                                                                                                              capacity. Our focus groups suggest that             Some housing associations have their own         facilities will have to adapt their procurement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  offsite manufacturing is well suited to the      facilities and are at the forefront of utilising    routes to deliver MMC. Local authorities are
                                  10%                                                                                                                                                                             sector as it can speed up delivery and           MMC. Swan Housing, for example, opened              also pushing ahead. There is a pan-London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  increase the quality of new homes delivered.     its own vertically integrated modular factory       group of councils that is working to supply
                                  0%                                                                                                                                                                              Faster delivery means rental income is           in October 2017 and plans to build 600              200 modular temporary accommodation
                                                                Homeless

                                                                                   Working
                                                                                households

                                                                            market housing

                                                                                                     Older people*

                                                                                                                            Temporary
                                                                                                                              hardship

                                                                                                                                                                  Aspiring

                                                                                                                                                                 (currently
                                                                                                                                                                   renting)

                                                                                                                                                                                   but seek security
                                                                            unable to afford

                                                                                                                                                  Long-term
                                                                                                                                                 unemployed

                                                                                                                                                               homeowners

                                                                                                                                                                                 Private renters who
                                                                                                                                                                                  are happy renting,
                                            households

                                             needs etc)
                                             Vulnerable

                                          (elderly; with
                                                special

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  received more quickly and grant can be           homes a year.                                       homes by 2021.

                                                                                                                                                Note *Not surveyed 2018 Source Sentiment survey

                                        3. Older persons’ housing                              only 726,000 such homes are available                            particularly that which was built in the              Funding for social care provision
                                        Our survey shows that of all the forms of              (see our 2018 Spotlight: Retirement Living).                     1960s and 1970s. Of the 730,000 retirement        is limited, so delivering extra-care
                                        specialist housing provision, the sector has           There needs to be more focus on specialist                       housing units across the UK, 52% were built       housing is highlighted as a particular
                                        the greatest appetite to deliver retirement            delivery and recognition of the wider benefits                   or last renovated more than 30 years ago          challenge, especially when it is
                                        housing in volume. Some 77% of respondents             it can bring to an organisation. For example,                    (Elderly Accommodation Counsel, 2019).            competing for funds within                                                      Across all the forms of specialist housing
                                        expect to build homes targeted at the older            a specialist housing offer from providers                           High rates of obsolescence and an ageing       organisations. But there are successful
                                        persons’ segment.                                      can encourage existing tenants to ‘rightsize’.                   population appear to be behind the drive to       examples which are likely to act as models                                      provision, 77% of respondents expect to build
                                           Retirement housing is an increasingly               This helps with turnover of stock and takes                      deliver new purpose-built retirement stock.       for future delivery within this tenure.                                         homes targeted at the older persons’ segment
                                        important tenure. International benchmarks             pressure off tenant services.                                    With a desire to break a cycle of build-use-
                                        suggest we should be providing specialist                 A concern raised by our focus groups is                       dispose-rebuild, this requires developing
                                        housing for around 15% (1.2 million)                   that much of the existing older persons’                         stock with enough flexibility to meet
                                        of households aged 65 or over. However,                housing stock is not fit for purpose –                           evolving care requirements.

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Investing in land                                                                                                                                                 Investing in land

                                                                                        As larger providers move into local
                                                                                        markets, there is a greater risk of
                                                                                        housing associations outbidding each
                                                                                        other and artificially inflating land values

                 The plots thicken                                                                                                                                          Three-year review The proportion of HAs that hold strategic
                                                                                                                                                                            land has been consistent, but the volume they hold has increased

                 Housing associations are becoming more active in                                                                                                              Do you currently have investments in strategic land?
                 the land market. Trouble is, they’re not the only ones
                 Words Lydia McLaren

                 Availability of land continues to be a challenge.      Some 39% of associations already                  Survey respondents suggest that as larger
                 It’s the standout factor, with 78% of housing       have strategic land and 64% are seeking           providers move into local regional markets,               No                           Yes     No                          Yes         No                           Yes
                                                                                                                                                                                              2017                                 2018                                    2019            39%
                 association (HA) respondents citing it as the       to acquire some within the next five years,       there is a greater risk of housing associations           65%                          35%     65%                         35%         61%
                 main constraint on development. And, as the         a slight increase on last year. This marks        outbidding each other and artificially
                 range of players in the land market diversifies,    the continued ambition to move towards            inflating land values.
                 housing associations face more competition,         a strategic approach to land.                        Access to land is becoming more
                 which pushes up land values.                           Last year, we discussed the risk of            fundamental to the sector, with both housing
                    Housing associations are increasingly            competition for Section 106 stock within the      associations and local authorities actively
                 happy to take on land-led development as it         sector. This year, there is the same risk of      pursuing it. Faced with a shortage of land
                 gives them ownership over the development           competition, but it is now moving to the land     supply, partnerships and an enabling policy             If yes, how much?
                 process, and allows them to retain control          market. The increase in smaller sites sold to     focus – such as the recommendations in
                 over what is built and how it is built.             housing associations of between 50 and 100        the Letwin Review – are needed to help
                    The competition for Section 106 and some         units highlights the sweet spot of demand.        improve access to land opportunities.
                 high-profile issues with the quality of stock
                 coming through, have also encouraged some
                 providers to change their focus towards                  Land-led development gives HAs
                 land-led provision. With 33% of housing                  ownership over the process, and
                 association respondents using Section 106
                                                                          allows them to retain control
                 homes for 26%-50% of their development
                 programme, we expect to see this decline
                 as providers pursue land-led opportunities,
                 dependent on grant availability.
                    We have seen greater activity from housing
                 associations in the land market over the
                 past year. The majority of this is for small
                 sites between 50 and 100 units, with bidding
                 activity rising by 150% in the past two years,
                                                                                                                                                                                       More than 500 homes:               More than 500 homes:                      More than 500 homes:
                 as reported by Savills land agents.
                                                                                                                                                                                              26%                                 24%                                      34%
                                                                     Section 106 homes Proportion of housing association respondents                                                          2017                                2018                                     2019
                                                                     who use Section 106 homes in their development programme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source Capacity survey

                                                      Over 91%*

                                                        51-90%*

                                                        26-50%*                                                                                                             ESTATE                        estate regeneration has a         Despite estate              a pot of money for
                                                                                                                                                                            REGENERATION                  role to play in solving the    regeneration being a core      estate regeneration and a
                                                                                                                                                                            Driven by social purpose,     housing crisis. They feel      pillar of the sector, our      separate funding source for
                                                          11-25%*                                                                                                           estate regeneration offers    that development potential     focus group recognises         delivering new homes. They
                                                                                                                                                                            the scope to redevelop        in existing land and vacant    the vast complexities          also note a planning and
                                                      Up to 10%*                                                                                                            estates and improve           sites can be unlocked          and challenges involved.       housing policy gap around
                                                                                                                                                                            housing conditions,           through regeneration and       Regeneration is a long-        estate regeneration that
                                                                                                                                                                            creating new sustainable      that there is opportunity      term process that serves       inhibits activity. The debt
                   We don’t have a development programme
                                                                                                                                                                            communities. This can be      to increase density in         as a drain on finances and     cap removal could boost
                                                                                                                                                                            achieved by replacing         some sites. But the            resources. Balancing           local authority estate
                        We don’t acquire Section 106 homes                                                                                                                  existing poor-quality stock   message was clear:             viability with delivering      regeneration as it provides
                                                                                                                                                                            and tackling the stigma       post-Grenfell, the housing     the right outcome for          some much-needed funding
                                                                                                                                                                            of social housing.            crisis is considered much      residents is key.              firepower, but public policy
                                                                     0%        5%          10%          15%         20%           25%          30%           35%               From our survey, 91% of    more multi-faceted than           Our focus group believes    must provide more backing
                                                                                                               Percentage                                                   respondents believe that      building more homes.           that the sector requires       for the process.
                                                                                                      Note *Proportion of development that is S106 Source Capacity survey

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New entrants                                                                                                                            New entrants

                                                   More than 70% of local authorities indicate they

                                                                                                                                                                                         72%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            The percentage of respondents
                                                   plan to increase their delivery of homes for social                                                                                                      who believe FPRPs have a role
                                                   rent, affordable rent and shared ownership                                                                                                               to play in the housing crisis

Finding their place                                                                                                                                     For Profit Registered Providers
                                                                                                                                                        To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

Local authorities can now make a meaningful contribution to affordable housing. We                                                                                                                                  Proportion of respondents                    Key    Agree     Not sure    Disagree

look at their ambitions, plus the growing influence of For Profit Registered Providers
Words Lucian Cook
                                                                                                                                                                                    10%

Local authorities: sleeping                          Political pressures and cycles are cited        That suggests many of the most obvious
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    32%                                              29%
giants ready to re-engage?                        as constraining factors by our focus               development opportunities have been                                                                                                      37%
Not-for-profit housing associations have          groups. While local authorities often want         sold off and a more proactive approach                                                   25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              48%
been the engine room for new affordable           to build new homes regardless of political         is needed to identify future potential                      65%
housing delivery since the decline of local       allegiance, decisions can often be based           development sites.
authority housebuilding. However, with the        on short-term political interests, which              Other obstacles are similar to those
abolition of the Housing Revenue Account          may not marry well with longer-term                experienced by housing associations. But                                                                                                                           24%
(HRA) borrowing cap, local authorities            development programmes.                            where they differ most is the extent to which                                                                            31%
potentially have the financial firepower             Despite the lifting of the HRA borrowing        their organisational capacity is considered
to re-engage in housebuilding.                    cap, 61% of local authority respondents            a limiting factor. While 22% of housing
   More than 70% of the local authorities         cite financial capacity as the main funding        association respondents believe that this
                                                                                                                                                                FPRPs are as concerned with                        FPRPs will introduce innovative                 FPRPs will provide additional
who responded to our survey indicate              barrier. It may be that authorities are            acts as a major constraint on their ability                                                                   development and management
                                                                                                                                                               tenant welfare as not-for-profit                                                                affordable housing beyond what the
they plan to increase their delivery of           responding to the general austerity                to build more homes, the figure rises to                       registered providers                        strategies and systems to the sector            sector could deliver without them
homes for social rent, affordable rent and        affecting their budgets. It may be that            45% of local authorities.
shared ownership. More than 25% envisage          many have still to work through the full              Our focus groups feel that many
a big increase.                                   implications of the new flexibilities.             (though not all) local authorities have lost                                                                                                                                    Source Sentiment survey
   This reflects the ambitious development           It is also important to remember that           the expertise and experience needed to
programmes announced by many local                48% of local authorities do not have a housing     engage in significant housing delivery.
authorities. For example, Southwark aims          revenue account. Many need to develop              Concerns are expressed over their ability          For Profit Registered Providers                      Where FPRPs score well is in their ability         FPRPs that deliver housing at different
to deliver 11,000 new council homes by            a significant revenue stream and explore           to recruit skilled technical development           (FPRPs): disrupting the future                    to introduce innovative development and            price points and across different tenures
2043, while Ealing has adopted London’s           alternative models of specialist housing           staff within existing pay frameworks.              direction of the sector?                          their potential to deliver additional affordable   and through different mechanisms can
largest council housebuilding programme,          development companies. The lifting of                 Consequently, partnerships across               The amount of stock held by FPRPs has             housing by using institutional funding to          be supportive of traditional housing
targeting 1,138 genuinely affordable homes        the HRA borrowing cap has undoubtedly              local authorities, with registered providers       increased by 149% in the past year (albeit        boost overall capacity.                            associations and local authorities.
by March 2022.                                    opened up opportunity, time will tell if           and the private sector, are either ongoing,        from a low base of 873 units). This is leading       So, what is the role of FPRPs? The biggest      An example of this is traditional housing
                                                  they can capture it.                               planned or being considered over the next          to concerns that they are diverting funding       percentage increase in affordable housing          associations moving towards more
The obstacles                                        The most significant perceived                  five years by the majority of respondents.         from traditional housing associations and         delivery by FPRPs between 2017 and 2018 is         land-led development, giving FPRPs
Local authorities will need to adapt to           constraint on local authority development                                                             affecting pricing in the Section 106 market.      in the provision of low-cost home ownership.       a clear role to play in delivering Section
achieve their delivery ambitions and              is a lack of land, which is surprising given                                                          Press coverage has served to exacerbate this      Here, output rose 23% last year. It is a sector    106 homes.
contribute significantly to housing delivery.     the extent of their property holdings.                                                                public perception that FPRPs are changing         of the market that appears to be well-suited          The opportunity is to find more areas
                                                                                                                                                        the direction of the sector.                      to the FPRPs. It is also one which will            where FPRPs can provide additional
                                                                                                                                                           Despite this, 72% of respondents believe       assume heightened importance when Help             delivery, because, as one of our focus
                                                                                                                                                        that FPRPs have a role to play in solving         to Buy ends in 2023 (See our 2019 Spotlight:       group notes, “there is enough of
                                                                                                                                                        the housing crisis. Arguably, FPRPs have          Shared Ownership).                                 a housing crisis to go around”.
                                                  Local authorities                                                                                     challenged and refocused the sector, with
                                                  What are the top three funding barriers?                                                              respondents describing them as ‘alternatives
                                                                                                                                                        with a different agenda.’
                                                                                                   Key   Top barrier   2nd barrier     3rd barrier
                                                                                                                                                           Our focus groups are divided on the role of
                                                                                                                                                                                                             The biggest increase in affordable housing
                                                                                                                                                        FPRPs, but note a tendency within the sector         delivery by For Profit Registered Providers
 Financial capacity within the local authority
                                                                                                                                                        to view new players with scepticism. The             is in low-cost home ownership
                                                                                                                                                        results suggest much of this focuses on the
                                                                                                                                                        perceived tension between delivering housing
   Corporate treasury management strategy                                                                                                               as a social good and returns to investors. This
                                                                                                                                                        is perhaps best demonstrated by the fact that
                                                                                                                                                        65% of respondents to our sentiment survey
  Member appetite within the local authority                                                                                                            feel that FPRPs are less concerned with
                                                                                                                                                        tenant welfare than traditional providers.
                                                                                                                                                           Though FPRPs are subject to the same
                          There are no barriers                                                                                                         regulatory standards as other registered
                                                                                                                                                        providers, our focus groups also highlight
                                                  0%                20%                 40%              60%                  80%                100%   the need for them to demonstrate ongoing
                                                                                     Proportion of respondents                                          good governance and a social conscience that
                                                                                                                              Source Capacity survey    overrides a desire to maximise profit.

savills.com/research                                                            10                                                                                                                                      11
Partnerships                                                                                                  Partnerships

                                                                                       Over the past 12 months,
                                                                                       Homes England has
                                                                                       agreed strategic
                                                                                       partnerships with 23
                                                                                       housing associations

                 Competition or collaboration?                                                                       HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS
                                                                                                                     Partnerships with either other housing associations, local
                                                                                                                     authorities or private developers are being undertaken,
                 As challenges in the sector evolve, local authorities and housing associations are                  planned or considered in the next year by at least 70% of
                 increasingly looking at partnerships as a way to share resources, capacity and skills               housing associations. Over the next five years this rises to at
                                                                                                                     least 80%. Full mergers are less popular, but those considering
                                                                                                                     rises significantly between the one and five-year time frames.
                 Words Josh Rose-Nokes

                 A commitment to provide homes for those            five years. For both housing associations           Housing association partnerships The appetite to form different partnerships in the short and medium term
                 who need them in volatile political, economic      and local authorities, partnerships with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Key    Already doing   Plan to do so   Considering
                 and social times is a clear message from the       each other are being actively considered.
                 survey and focus groups. However, alongside           This was also a standout theme in the
                 a common purpose, there are, inevitably,           focus groups, with attendees describing
                 common challenges. Meeting those                   an appetite for partnerships. The potential                                    HA merger
                                                                                                                                            (in the next year)
                 challenges requires a much greater need for        for local authorities and housing
                 partnerships; for which there appears to be        associations to work more closely, not
                 a strong appetite.                                 only with each other but also with their
                                                                                                                                                   HA merger
                                                                    peers at a local or sub-regional level,
                                                                                                                                       (in the next five years)
                 The drivers                                        comes through strongly.
                 As we explain earlier in this report, housing         So, what are the benefits of a partnership?
                 associations are increasingly looking to move      For local authorities, it lies in providing
                 away from Section 106-led delivery. To do          access to resources, capacity and skills,
                                                                                                                       Partnership with institutional investor
                 so, they need to secure land supply at viable      and opening up shorter-term development
                                                                                                                                            (in the next year)
                 prices. Competition for land will intensify,       opportunities at scale.
                 particularly as the lifting of the HRA                For housing associations, partnerships
                 borrowing cap gives local authorities scope        enable the delivery of opportunities at scale
                                                                                                                       Partnership with institutional investor
                 to become more active in land markets.             while avoiding unnecessary competition.
                                                                                                                                      (in the next five years)
                    Land-led development also requires              This can include influencing local or sub-
                 skill sets which are not widespread in the         regional planning policy and infrastructure
                 sector. Organisations compete for the same         investment, and engaging effectively with
                 workforce and expertise. This has been an          local authorities and local government.
                 issue for housing associations for some time;                                                            Partnership with one or more HAs
                                                                                                                                           (in the next year)
                 local authorities will add to this pressure.       The role of the private sector
                    The availability of grant has improved,         Partnerships are already widespread
                 but remains low in a historical context and        within the sector and our analysis suggests
                 associations are faced with the challenge          that about £1 billion was invested in                 Partnership with one or more HAs
                                                                                                                                     (in the next five years)
                 that a slowing housing market presents to          joint ventures last year. This is likely an
                 cross-subsidised affordable delivery.              understatement, as accounting covers up
                    So, problems come, in part, from within the     off balance sheet activity to a degree.
                 sector. Encouragingly, the survey responses           Partnerships with the private sector
                 and focus groups suggest that solutions do, too.   have already had an important role and the            Partnership with one or more local
                                                                                                                                authorities (in the next year)
                                                                    survey and focus groups suggest they will
                 The opportunity                                    continue to do so. When they work well, they
                 We asked respondents about their                   spread risk and accelerate delivery. In the
                 likelihood to engage in partnerships               focus groups, the importance of long-term             Partnership with one or more local
                 during the next year and in the following          partnerships, focusing on repeat business,             authorities (in the next five years)

                                                                                                                         Partnership with private developer
                                                                                                                                          (in the next year)

                                                                                                                         Partnership with private developer
                                                                                                                                     (in the next five years)

                                                                                                                                                                  0%   10%        20%    30%        40%       50%         60%     70%        80%       90%        100%

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Proportion of respondents

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source Capacity survey

savills.com/research                                                              12                                                                                                           13
Partnerships

                                                 Strategic partners have secured around
                                                 £1.7 billion grant funding to deliver some
                                                 40,000 additional affordable homes

LOCAL AUTHORITIES
In the short term, for local authorities there is most appetite
for partnerships with other local authorities (almost 70%) and
private developers (over 70%). In the longer term, appetite
for partnerships with housing associations dramatically
increases by more than 30% and appetite for partnerships
with other local authorities falls by almost 20%.

  Local authority partnerships The appetite to form different partnerships in the short and medium term
                                                                                                    Key    Already doing    Plan to do so        Considering

      Partnership with one or more HAs
                       (in the next year)

      Partnership with one or more HAs
                 (in the next five years)

  Partnership with institutional investor
                       (in the next year)

  Partnership with institutional investor
                 (in the next five years)

                                                                                                                                                                                                Savills Residential Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                We provide bespoke services for landowners, developers, occupiers and investors across the
 Partnership with one or more local                                                                                                                                                             lifecycle of residential, commercial or mixed-use projects. We add value by providing our clients
 authorities (in the next year)
                                                                                                                                                                                                with research-backed advice and consultancy through our market-leading global research team

 Partnership with one or more local                                                                                                                                Savills Housing
 authorities (in the next five years)                                                                                                                              Robert Grundy                               Helen Collins                               Terry Frain                                 Joseph Larke                                Robert Pert
                                                                                                                                                                   Head of Housing                             Head of Housing                             Financial Consultant                        Head of Housing                             Head of Housing
                                                                                                                                                                   020 7409 5995                               Consultancy                                 020 7299 3070                               Division                                    Development and
                                                                                                                                                                   rgrundy@savills.com                         020 7409 8154                               tfrain@savills.com                          020 7409 9983                               Regeneration
     Partnership with private developer                                                                                                                                                                        hcollins@savills.com                                                                    jlarke@savills.com                          020 3107 5498
                      (in the next year)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           rpert@savills.com

     Partnership with private developer                                                                                                                            Savills Research
                 (in the next five years)
                                                                                                                                                                   Lucian Cook                                 Chris Buckle                                Josh Rose-Nokes                             Lydia McLaren                               Emily Williams
                                                                                                                                                                   Head of Residential                         Director                                    Associate Director                          Analyst                                     Associate Director
                                            0%     10%       20%        30%        40%        50%         60%      70%         80%         90%         100%        Research                                    020 7016 3881                               020 7409 5907                               020 3428 2939                               020 7016 3896
                                                                                                                                                                   020 7016 3837                               cbuckle@savills.com                         josh.rosenokes                              lydia.mclaren                               ewilliams@savills.com
                                                                                   Proportion of respondents
                                                                                                                                                                   lcook@savills.com                                                                       @savills.com                                @savills.com
                                                                                                                                          Source Capacity survey

a strategic approach and equal sharing of        Over the past 12 months, strategic            for a more flexible grant system. The key                           Survey Partner
risk and reward, is a strong message.            partnerships have been agreed with 23         features of strategic partnership funding are:                      Luke Cross
                                                 housing associations. Collectively, the       certainty; flexibility; and the ability to draw                     Editor, Social Housing
The role of government                           strategic partners have secured around        down grant against eligible cash spend.                             020 7772 8468
Beyond this, the government recognises the       £1.7 billion grant funding to deliver some       The message is clear. Partnerships are,                          www.socialhousing.co.uk
need to respond to the sector’s request for      40,000 additional affordable homes beyond     and will continue to be, hugely important
a more flexible grant system. Homes England      pre-existing delivery plans. This responds    in the sector and can open up opportunities,                        Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, UK, Europe, Asia-Pacific,
                                                                                                                                                                   Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not
has been active in forming partnerships.         to a long-term ask of housing associations    accelerate delivery and reduce risk.                                be published, reproduced or quoted, in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure
                                                                                                                                                                   its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited
                                                                                                                                                                   without written permission from Savills Research.

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