THE OUTLOOK FOR UK MAIL VOLUMES TO 2023 - PWC STRATEGY & ECONOMICS 15 JULY 2013 - NEOPOST ENTERPRISE ...
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PwC Strategy & Economics
The outlook for UK mail
volumes to 2023
15 July 2013Important notice This document has been prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (“PwC” or “we”) for Royal Mail Group and solely for the purpose and on the terms agreed with Royal Mail Group. We accept no liability (including for negligence) to anyone else in connection with this document. This document has been made publicly available for the purposes of general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this document without obtaining specific professional advice. Information in this document is obtained or derived from a variety of sources. PwC has not sought to establish the reliability of those sources or verify all of the information so provided. No representation or warranty of any kind (whether express or implied) is given by PwC to any person (except to Royal Mail Group under the relevant terms of the Engagement) as to the accuracy or completeness of the report, and, to the extent permitted by law, PwC, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this document or for any decision based on it. Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023 PwC 2
Objectives
PwC was asked to • Royal Mail Group commissioned PwC to provide an
independent view on the long-term outlook for UK mail
develop a view on
volumes
the long-term
outlook for UK mail • Our projections use information and analysis from a variety
of sources, including Royal Mail Group
volumes (letters
and parcels) • However, our conclusions have been reached independently.
Our projections are based on our own insights and analysis,
supported by an extensive programme of interviews, surveys
and industry research
• We have projected mail volumes (letters and parcels) on an
annual basis over the period 2013 to 2023
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 3We have made a number of simplifying assumptions about the
future market structure
Key underlying assumptions
1 We assume that the overall structure of the UK mail market (e.g. delivery chain and model) will not change significantly
over the projection period
We assume that additional regulatory change during the projection period will have a limited impact on the structure
2
and operations of the mail market. We assume there will be no material change to the Universal Service Obligation
3 We assume price changes will be marginally higher than RPI over the projection period
We have also used a number of macroeconomic assumptions in our modelling
Source 2013 2014 2015-2023
GDP growth, % p.a. Based on PwC
1.2 2.1 2.4
economic forecasts
Growth in number of Based on PwC and
1.0 1.0 1.0
households, % p.a. ONS projections
Source: PwC Economic forecasts, Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 4Our projection incorporates insights gained from extensive
customer interviews, surveys, independent research and
international comparisons
Applied PwC
Surveyed
Segmented mail commercial
into 20 major 2,000+ and economic
consumers
categories to expertise and
and 1,000+
identify key industry research
private and public
drivers from a range of
sector organisation
sources
Interviewed Used
100+ mail International
senders across benchmarks
all major mail
segments
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 5Section 1 Executive Summary Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023 PwC 6
Section 1 – Executive Summary
Key messages
1 3
UK mail volumes have declined since 2004 We expect the decline of letter volumes to continue but at a
slower rate over the projection period
• The mail delivered in the UK is highly varied and the total mailbag is highly • We expect the rate of e-substitution in letters to slow gradually over the
fragmented next 10 years. In the initial years of e-substitution consumers with a high
• UK total inland letter volumes declined by 3.1% p.a. from 2005 to 2008, propensity to switch move rapidly online, as do many lower-value
and by 6.3% p.a. from 2008-2013, as the economic downturn increased the communications
rate of decline • As time goes on, the remaining base becomes more skewed towards ‘paper-
• UK parcel volumes grew by 4.3% p.a. from 2005 to 2008 and by 3.7% p.a. loyal’ consumers and those being sent higher value communications. We
from 2008-2013, mainly reflecting increasing use of online shopping by expect demographic changes and technology evolution to have a less
consumers prominent impact on this segment
• A return to GDP growth as the recession ends is likely to increase overall
communication volumes, partially offsetting the declining share of letters
in overall communication, particularly for Direct Mail
• Declines in letter volumes will also continue to be partially offset by robust
growth of parcels traffic, driven by specific categories of online shopping
2 4
The main driver of mail declines has been electronic Our projection suggests letter volume declines of c.4% p.a.
substitution of paper communication and parcel growth of c.3% p.a. from 2013 to 2023
• The principal cause of the overall mail volume decline has been the • We therefore expect the overall UK inland mail volumes to continue to
substitution of paper communication by electronic methods decline albeit more slowly than we have seen historically
(e-substitution) - Letters: 5% p.a. decline 2013-18; 4% p.a. decline 2018-23
• However, the maturity of this transformation varies widely within different - Parcels: 3% p.a. increase 2013-18; 2% p.a. increase 2018-23
segments of the mail bag - Overall: 4% p.a. decline 2013-18; 3% p.a. decline 2018-23
- Some segments are already substantially online while others are just • Despite the slowing rate of decline in overall mail, these projections imply a
beginning this transition significant reduction from current levels of paper communication by 2023,
- The maximum likely level of electronic substitution also varies between as well as a substantial change in mix (we believe parcels will double their
segments depending on both recipients’ and senders’ attitudes to share of the mail bag to c.21%)
electronic communication. This is affected by a range of factors such as • We have identified a number of risks to our projections which might
internet access and age (mail recipients) and mail costs (mail senders) increase the rate of mail decline over the projection period. The potential
impact of these is illustrated in Section 5 of the report
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 7Section 1 – Executive Summary
UK inland letters and parcels market volumes - past, present, and
future
2005 2012 2023
c.19.7bn
c.13.8bn
items c.8.3bn
items
items
UK letters
market
Transactional mail
6% 6% 6%
9% 6% 6%
Direct mail
54% 50%
31% 32% 56% Publishing mail
38%
Social mail
UK parcels
market
c.1.3bn c.1.7bn c.2.3bn
items items items
Note: International mail volumes not included due to limited data availability for the historical period. Please refer to the later section for projections by mail segment
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023 •
PwC 8Section 1 – Executive Summary
Total inland mail volumes peaked in 2004 and have since declined,
with an acceleration in mail declines since the start of the recession
UK overall inland mail volumes, 1981-2012
250
1 2 3
1
Mail volumes peaked in 2004 after long
200 run growth of 3.7% p.a. between 1981
and 2004
Indexed mail volumes (1981=100)
150 2
From 2004, electronic substitution of
mail began to exceed macro driven mail
volume growth, leading to mail volume
100 declines of 2.6% p.a. from 2005 to 2008
3
Since the recession, macro factors (such
50 as GDP) have also driven lower mail
volumes with mail declines of 5.3% p.a.
from 2008 to 2012
0
2010
1983
1993
2003
2008
2009
1981
1984
1986
1988
1989
1991
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2004
2006
2011
1987
1997
2007
1982
1985
1992
1995
2002
2005
2012
1990
2000
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 9Section 1 – Executive Summary
We expect UK letter volume declines to continue, albeit at a slower
rate, while parcel volumes will continue to grow
Total inland letters historical and projected volumes, 2005-23
120
Indexed mail volumes
100
Forecast • We expect the rate of letter volume declines to
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR reduce over the projection period as a result of:
(2005=100)
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
80
(3.1%) (6.3%) (4.9%) (3.8%) - A return to the trend rate of GDP growth
60 resulting in increased overall communication
40 volumes (this will particularly affect Direct Mail
which is highly cyclical)
20
- Slowdown in letter volume declines in other
0 segments, such as financial statements, as a
2012
2015
2010
2006
2008
2009
2013
2016
2018
2019
2023
2011
2014
2021
2007
2017
2005
2022
2020
baseline of non-online users or less willing online
users is reached
Total inland parcels historical and projected volumes, 2005-23
Forecast
200 • The growth in parcel volumes is expected to continue
Indexed mail volumes
180
160 throughout the projection period
(2005=100)
140
120
• We expect some slow down in the rate of growth in
100 the later years, mainly due to:
80 CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
60 2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23 - The continued partial digital substitution of some
40 4.3% 3.7% 3.3% 2.1% product categories, especially Books
20
0 - The gradual slowdown in the growth rate of
2013
2014
2016
2018
2019
2011
2007
2017
2005
2012
2015
2022
2010
2020
2006
2008
2009
2023
2021
online shopping
Note: Total inland letter volumes inclusive of Transactional, Social, Direct Mail and Publishing mail volumes. International letter volumes not included due to limited data availability for the historical
period. Please refer to the later section for projections by mail segment
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 10Section 1 – Executive Summary
Our e-substitution scenario analysis suggests that in a negative
case, the total cumulative decline could be 5ppt below our base-case
by 2015, increasing to c.12ppt by 2023
Total inland mail projected scenarios, 2012-23
• We have modelled upside and downside e-
120 substitution scenarios to demonstrate the
potential impact on our projection of some of the
risks we have identified
100 • These scenarios are based on changing a number
of assumptions underlying our individual mail
segment projections to create high and low cases
for each mail segment
Indexed mail volumes (2012=100)
80 − These are not ‘worst case’ scenarios, but
represent plausible alternative outcomes
− Upside scenarios are based on factors such as
a larger baseline of consumers and businesses
60
retaining paper invoicing and slower
Government digital uptake while downside
scenarios are based on factors such as faster
adoption of paperless bank statements and
40
slower parcel volume growth
• We have used Monte Carlo analysis to illustrate
the range of possible outcomes from combining
20 these scenarios (reflecting the fact that it is
unlikely that all downsides will occur together)
• The scenarios do not include differing GDP
assumptions (illustrated later in the report) and
0 also exclude large one off events which could
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 significantly affect mail volumes. Examples of
these events are discussed in the ‘Main risks to
projection’ section of the report
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 11Section 2 Historical trends and context Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023 PwC 12
Section 2 – Historical trends and context
Historically mail volumes closely correlated with socio-economic
drivers such as GDP growth, but in recent years technology and e-
substitution have become important constraints on growth
Actual mail growth vs. modelled growth Illustrative • Historically econometric models have been good predictors of
mail growth. But from the early 2000s structural changes (such as
technology and e-substitution) have led to a gap between the
Modelled growth Actual growth modelled growth based on socio-economic factors and actual mail
10.0% growth, sometimes referred to as the "technology wedge”
• While we still expect socio-economic factors to be important
8.0%
drivers of mail in the future, forecasting models need to make
allowances for these significant and ongoing trends
6.0%
YoY growth (%)
4.0%
2.0%
“Technology wedge”
0.0%
83/84
88/89
01/02
04/05
99/00
82/83
85/86
87/88
92/93
95/96
97/98
98/99
02/03
90/91
93/94
00/01
03/04
05/06
07/08
86/87
96/97
06/07
81/82
84/85
91/92
94/95
89/90
-2.0%
-4.0%
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 13Section 2 – Historical trends and context
Other developed countries have also seen declines in mail volumes,
but at widely varying rates...
Letter volumes have been declining around the world, with wide Even before the declines started, letter volumes per head and the
variation in rates composition sent varied widely
Decline in inland addressed letter volumes per person Total inland addressed letter volume per person, 2005
from 2005 to 2011 (2005=100%) and 2011
110% 800
700
# of postal items per person
100% Germany
600
Finland 2005 2011
500
90% Sweden
France 400
80% Canada 300
Netherlands
200
United States
70% 100
United Kingdom
Norway 0
60%
Canada
Finland
France
United States
Netherlands
Kingdom
Germany
Norway
Denmark
Sweden
United
Denmark
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: Mail volumes for each country are submitted by postal operators and therefore may not be entirely comparable depending on survey methodologies, country data for
Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands adjusted based on assumed market share of largest postal operator
Source: IPC, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 14Section 2 – Historical trends and context
...this reflects different initial mail bags, cultural factors and
government policies in each country
Denmark Germany
• Denmark has seen one of the fastest declines in physical • In 2005, Germany had a lower level of mail items per capita
mail volumes than the UK and has experienced one of the slowest declines
among developed countries
• The c.50% decline in addressed inland mail between 2005
and 2011 was mostly the result of a decline in priority or • The composition of the German mail bag was very different
standard addressed mail from the UK. In 2005, Germany sent c.84 pieces of direct
mail per capita vs. 103 per capita in UK. Between 2005 and
• The main driver of the decline was the continued push by
2011, UK direct mail declined by c.24% while German direct
the government to move significant volumes of
mail declined by only c.11%. As a result, in 2011, both
communication online. The government is currently in the
countries sent c.75 pieces of direct mail per person
process of implementing an ambitious digital strategy to
make all government interactions paperless by 2015 • Physical transactional mail also appears to be preferred in
Germany as there is lower acceptance of ‘digital signatures’
• In addition, the government has given comparatively low
priority to the digitisation of government mail
Source: Royal Mail data, IPC, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 15Section 2 – Historical trends and context
The overall decline in mail in the UK has been driven by e-
substitution effects in many different mail categories
Total advertising
spend is lower than
Estimate of macro and e-substitution factors driving the decrease in mail its 2005 level,
volume, 2005-12 reducing spend on
Growth in parcel
delivery has offset 2% (3%) Direct Mail
5% (6%) Indicative
some letter volume 5% (5%)
decline
100% 2%
(2%) (3%)
In addition, Direct
(15%) Mail as a proportion
of advertising spend
The UK economy is (3%)
has declined, further
around 4% larger (1%) 76% reducing mail
than in 2005 volumes
driving an increase
in transactional
mail Impact of business price changes & DSA*
Volume 2005
Volume 2012
Other mail decline
Direct Mail economic impact
E-substitution of direct mail
Decline in social mail (e-sub & price)
Growth in parcels
Impact of growth in number of households
E-substitution of bank statements
E-substitution of invoices
E-substitution of newsletters
Other transactional mail decline
Transactional mail economic impact
Despite its high
The shift of profile, the impact of
business volumes social mail decline
towards has been relatively
Downstream Access low
providers (e.g. UK
Mail and TNT) has
reduced average
prices and so been
beneficial for E-substitution has occurred in
overall mail most of the mail categories and
volumes cannot be fully split into its
constituent parts
Note: *Increased usage of downstream access providers has decreased average prices paid over this period
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 16Section 2 – Historical trends and context
Most e-substitution is being caused by technologies which have
existed for several years rather than very recent innovations
First graphical HMRC launches You Tube 75% of UK has
web browser online Self home internet
Assessment 60% of UK
access
World wide web has internet
launched access 50% of UK
1st online using the
Phone bank Google internet daily
Fax Google
TV Amazon Adwords
E-bay Facebook iPhone
iPad
1990 2000 2010 2013
Many of the Email, PDF and electronic invoicing systems enable B2B electronic invoicing
technologies
currently The effects of recent
driving the Rich emails allow newsletter volumes to move online innovation e.g. 3D
major mail printing is not likely to
reductions Major banks launch online portals enabling paperless be felt until towards end
have existed statements of the plan at the
for a number earliest
of years
Pay-Per-Click enables growth in internet advertising
Recent technological enablers such as Social networks,
smartphones and tablets are expected to drive further
declines, e.g. impact on Direct Mail and magazines
Source: PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 17Section 2 – Historical trends and context
Different segments of the mail bag have declined (or grown) at very
different rates
UK mail volume split by application, 2005-12
5% 5% 5%
8% 8% 5%
7%
6% CAGR 2005-12
6% 7% 6%
7%
Proportion of total items (%)
8% 6% 6%
6% 6%
8% 5%
6% Social mail (3.9%)
9% 5%
30% 30% 10%
30%
29% 11%
28%
29%
Publishing (9.5%)
29%
29%
Parcels 4.1%
51% 50% 51% 51% 52% Direct mail (4.6%)
51% 50% 50%
Transactional (4.5%)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Note: International mail volumes not included due to limited data availability for the historical period. Please refer to later section for projections by mail segment; Historical parcel volumes have been
estimated using a combination of parcel volume datasets and parcel specific historical growth drivers
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
PwC 18Section 3 Factors influencing mail volumes Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023 PwC 19
Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
The e-substitution trend varies considerably between mail types,
with each in a different position on the ‘S-curve’
Mail e-substitution s-curve
Illustrative
Mail
Pre decline Early stage Main phase of Approaching Baseline
volumes
e-substitution decline baseline
Payments International
letters While the majority of
Invoicing mail volumes will
Government Publishing follow an ‘s-curve’, the
speed of decline and
Direct mail size of the baseline
will vary by
application
Financial
sector
Social
Mail remains the Mail begins to be Mail volumes Rate of decline Remaining mail Years
primary form of substituted by other rapidly decline as decelerates as users are those who
communication forms of other channels remaining mail users will not use
communication become increasingly have stronger substitute forms of
popular preferences for communication
physical mail
Source: PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 20Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
The steepness of the s-curve and level of the base is determined by a
balance of sender and receiver incentives
Sender incentives to e-substitute Incentives in example mail types
Higher Mail for information only Rapid e-substitution
Higher
High volume Personal
tax returns
Requires a response
Want prompt payment
Bank
About a high value transaction statements
Relative receiver
Lower To a high value customer demand for B2B
electronic insurance
certificates B2B
substitution
invoices
Receiver receptiveness to e-substitution B2C
invoice
Higher Mail item required quickly
B2B B2C
Response likely to be online Magazines insurance
certificates
Frequent or large mailing
Benefits
Has archive value Lower
Slow e-substitution
Aimed at lower income groups
Lower Higher
Lower Aimed at older groups Relative sender
incentive to encourage
Source: PwC analysis
electronic adoption
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 21Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
Consumers can be split into those who embrace online services,
those who do not use online services because they do not think they
are suitable, and those who have no internet access
c.80% of consumers are split between those who can and do use online services where
c. 20% of consumers currently have
possible and those who can but prefer not to. However, preferences for online services
limited access to online services
vary by mail segment
A significant proportion of consumers are A second group of consumers have the A smaller group of consumers have limited
increasingly using online services to ability to use online services but choose not access to the internet and therefore are
communicate to because: unable to use online services
55% of consumers prefer to use online
• They may prefer to keep paper records
services to interact remotely with UK Internet take-up and
government departments 34% of consumers who receive intentions, 2012
financial statements by post do so to
These consumers prefer to use online
keep paper records 15% Don't intend to get
services as they believe that they are more 4%
convenient. The services can be accessed at • They do not believe that online services Don't know if will get
anytime from anywhere with an internet are suitable for certain applications 79% Likely to get in next 12 months
enabled device
55% of consumers who receive online 42% of consumers who do not use Internet connection at home
financial statements state internet banking state the main
‘convenience’ as the main reason for reason is concern over security This proportion of non internet users is
stopping paper likely decline over time
Will continue to use
outlook
May convert to online Largely remain mail
Mail
online services and
services as systems users with some online
gradually reduce
develop service adopters
remaining mail received
Source: Ofcom Communication Market Report 2012, PwC surveys
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 22Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
While cost is the primary driver for most senders engaging in e-
substitution, the decision to move away from paper is not always
straightforward
Potential benefits of e-substitution Potential costs of e-substitution
Can offer long term cost Can generate hidden or unexpected costs
savings and cheaper
scalability Having the option to “Paper bill customers are much less likely to phone in with
choose channel increases billing enquiries than e-bill ones, the true cost of e-bills needs to
reflect the potential cost of phone enquiries”- Telco
customers’ satisfaction
Improves quantity and
quality of data collected Not all customers might be
ready to move online Physical mail is more
likely to be opened and
Can improve corporate image
Forcing e-substitution on read
“I prefer not to be inundated with catalogues at all, I just put them customers can annoy them
in the recycling bin while moaning about how many trees were
wasted” - Consumer
High initial IT investment required
“We thought we could do most of the client’s communication
Can provide real time
Can improve immediacy online, but systems constraints prevented them from going
information and live through with it - many firms don’t have the resources or
and ease of communication
updates appetite to do it” – Consultancy firm
Source: PwC interviews, PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 23Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
Demographic changes are likely to contribute to declines in postal
communication in the long term. However, we believe the impact
will be relatively small over the projection period
1 Demographic and behavioural drivers of mail 2
However, as a person ages, the
volumes volume of post they receive
The primary driver of mail
Share of transactional mail vs. share of increases due to the ‘complexity’ of
declines in the short to population, 2011
medium term is the life
1
changing behaviour within 35%
33% On average, older age groups
and across all age groups typically have greater numbers of,
All age groups increasingly 30% 1 and more complex, transactions
have access to the internet 27% 1 (e.g. Life insurance) and assets (e.g.
1 25% Houses, cars and bank accounts)
through a range of internet 25%
23%
enabled devices
21%
20% 3 In the longer term, demographic
Home Internet access by 20%
1
age, 2010-2012 17% change will have a gradual effect on
16%
90% 90% 88% 14% mail reduction, as older age cohorts
100% 15%
84% 86% 87% with more limited internet access
75%
80% 69% 64% make up a smaller proportion of
60% 51%
10% the population
40% 27%
23%
20%
0%
5% 4%
2 3 46% of over 65’s have home
internet access vs. 80% for the
16-24
75+
25-34
35-54
55-64
65-74
0%
16-24 yrs 25-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65+ yrs UK population in 2012
2010 2011 2012
% of transactional mail % of population
Source: Royal Mail data, Ofcom Communication Market Report 2012, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 24Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
While e-substitution has largely been negative for letters, parcel
volumes have benefitted from growth in online shopping
Growth of remote retail Rise of online
Parcel deliveries have been growing UK home shopping sales as % Remote retail spend
of total retail sales Online has been taking by channel, 2012
with the increasing uptake of
9% 10%
11% share from the more
% of retail sales
remote shopping 6% 7% 7% 8% 8%
traditional (offline) Mail order TV
Consumers are increasingly opting 12% 2%
remote ordering channels
for home shopping as it allows for such as mail and phone
2005
2012
2010
2006
2008
2009
2011
2007
convenient price and product range ordering and driving the
comparison overall remote retail Online
86%
category
“Some items and sizes are not available in store and it saves time to order
from home... Others like the anonymity of the process.”
Clothing & Footwear retailer
Digitisation
While the growth rate is slowing down, online is outperforming total retail
with last year’s annual online expenditure in the UK increasing by c.12.9%
UK consumer While the increased use of
compared to total retail growth of c.0.9% during the same time period e-book market, smart phones and tablets for
2007-12est leisure encourages impulse
Parcels have traditionally been delivered
“Click & Collect service is buying, it also fuels digital
to home or work places. More recently, CAGR 184% 261
getting more popular... It 2008-12est
substitution for some
Sales (£m)
customer collection models such as Click
is very convenient for the 138
categories such as Books,
& collect and lockers have been gaining 71
customer as they do not 27 Music & DVDs where c.30%
traction. These enhance flexibility, n/a 4
need to have someone at and 60% of remote deliveries
further increasing demand for remote
home to collect the parcel.”
2010
2012est
2008
2009
2011
2007
shopping respectively are already
Department store retailer digital
Source: Royal Mail data, Mintel, Verdict, PwC interviews, PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 25Section 3 – Factors influencing mail volumes
Price rises above inflation both reduce mail volumes in the short
term and can increase the future rate of e-substitution
International comparison of the estimated impact of 1% increase • International econometric comparisons indicate that a 1.0%
in real prices on aggregate mail volumes* increase in real prices leads to a 0.6% decline in mail volumes on
average
0
• Although price elasticity is low for total mail, some applications are
-0.2 more price sensitive than others, such as direct mail
-0.4
• There are low risks of price rises causing mail volume decline if
-0.6 future price increases are in line with inflation. We have
assumed future price increases to be marginally higher
Coefficient
-0.8
than RPI therefore further downside risks from price increases are
-1
limited
-1.2
• However, future price increases significantly above RPI could
-1.4
reduce volumes considerably. In addition, continued price
-1.6 increases would be likely to increase the pace of e-substitution as it
-1.8 makes electronic communication relatively more cost-efficient
-2 • We believe the interaction between e-substitution and price
US inland mail market
UK inland second class non-pre-sort
Finland Business to Consumer mail
UK inland transactional mail market
constitute an unknown downside risk to mail volumes
US standard-mail market
Switzerland inland mail
UK inland first class non-pre-sort
Finland Business to Business mail
US inland first-class mail
market
Note:*Price elasticities based on ‘own-price’ elasticities and hence do not take into account switching between products such as first class volumes moving to second class due to price rises in the
first class products
Source: Research papers as noted in the Appendix
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 26Section 4 Projections by mail segment Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023 PwC 27
Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
Our projection looks at the entire UK letter and parcel market,
including Royal Mail’s various competitors
Covered in our projection: the UK letter and parcel delivery market Not covered in
our projection:
International International
export import
Outward Inward
Collection Delivery Unaddressed
processing processing
advertising mail
Overnight express carriers, e.g. Yodel and Hermes
Irregular mail
Consumers products, e.g.
Royal Mail Royal Mail
Delivery Election mail
collection outward
Royal Mail offices
hubs sorting centre
inward
Business sorting centre Recipient
Food and Grocery
and public deliveries
Presorted
bodies
Down stream access Wholesale
companies, e.g. TNT and 2 man (items over
UK Mail 30kg) deliveries
By-pass, e.g. TNT London trial
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 28Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
We have projected mail volumes using both bottom-up and top-
down approaches
The top-down approach allows us to understand the macro The bottom-up approach allows us to understand the specific
drivers behind changes in mail use drivers behind changes in each mail segment
• Develop an econometric model of historical relationships between • 100+ interviews with large senders, 4 online surveys with c.3,000
mail volumes and drivers respondents (including consumer, business and public bodies),
desktop research and interviews with mail stakeholders
- Economic and cyclical factors (e.g. GDP, population etc.)
• Analyse each sub-segment of the mail bag to understand key
- Time trends to account for e-substitution and e-commerce
industry drivers and trends
trends
• Estimate the likely macro and e-substitution trends for each
- Price elasticity, i.e. sensitivity to changes in the price of letters
segment
and parcels
• Apply forecasts of the underlying drivers to produce a projection for
each of the main categories of mail
Triangulation and harmonization
of results
Integrated view
Overlays
Sensitivity analysis Short term risks Long term risks
Final projection
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 29Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
Our top down approach uses econometric models with time trends
to account for technology and e-substitution
E-substitution, linear and non-linear time trend*
We have considered two ways to include technological factors in our
econometric modelling
1. Analyse the impact of different 2. Estimate the shape and impact of
Illustrative
Letter volumes
Historical data
technological drivers for e- technology on mail volumes by
substitution, e.g. social media use including time trends in the
for social mail or online banking model (while remaining agnostic
penetration for financial mail. about what technology is driving
There are two limitations to this the trend). Different types of time
approach: trends (linear and non-linear)
can be used to estimate the shape
• Technology is continuously of the historical technology
evolving and so it is impossible to wedge and then applied to
Linear trend include an exhaustive list of the estimate future mail volumes
(best fit based on technological factors that might
historical data)
impact each mail type in the • The limitation of this approach is
future; that the past may not be a fair
representation of the future. For
• Forecasting how the selected example, a trend that has been
E-substitution
driver will evolve in the future is increasing historically may flatten
often as difficult as forecasting out or even start to decrease
Non-linear trend how mail volumes will evolve
(best fit based on
historical data)
Time
On balance, we believe that time trends provide the best way to create a
sensible and robust model
Note:*Most suitable shape of the time trend varies by application
Source: PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 30Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
Our bottom-up projection breaks down the mail bag into c.20 main
segments and looks at the drivers and outlook for each
UK inland and international mail volume by type, 2012
Social International
Transactional mail Direct mail Publishing mail Parcels
mail
100%
Other B2C
90%
Parcels
Newsletters
Other B2B
80%
Other C2X
Payments B2C
70%
Advertising
Invoices B2B B2C bills
60%
Key segments
Education
Central Local
+
Healthcare
50% Government Government
40%
Financial Services
Magazines
Other
30%
Financial Services Legal / Terms and Conditions Letters
B2B
20% Financial Services Catalogues
Insurance
10% Financial Services
statements
C2X
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Key mail type
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 31Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
These high level categories in turn break down into thousands of
different types of mail from different senders. Each of these types of
mail exhibits different growth dynamics
Total Mail
Government
Mail
Central Government
Transactional Mail
Not to Scale
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
PwC 32Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
Total inland letter volumes have been declining historically. The
contraction is expected to continue albeit at a slower rate year-on-
year
Total inland letters historical and projected volumes, 2005-23
Forecast
120
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
(3.1%) (6.3%) (4.9%) (3.8%)
100
Indexed mail volumes (2005=100)
80
60
Position on s-curve
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Above analysis exclusive of parcel, i.e. reflecting letter volumes only. International letter mail volumes not included due to limited data availability for the historical period. Please refer to the
later section for projections by mail segment
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 33Section 4 – Projections by mail segment
While letter volumes continue to fall, parcels will grow their share
of total inland mail volume
Total mail volume forecast by type, 2012-23
Forecast
100%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
90% Social mail
11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18%
80% 19% 19% 20% 21%
Publishing mail
70%
29% 28% 28% 28%
60% 28% 29%
Proportion (%)
29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% Parcels
50%
40%
Direct mail
30%
50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
20% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39%
Transactional mail
10%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: International mail volumes not included due to limited data availability for the historical period. Please refer to the individual section for projections
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 34Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Transactional Mail – Financial Services
Rapid decline in transactional mail volumes is expected to continue
before slowing down towards the end of the projection period
Transactional mail historical and projected volumes, 2005-23
Forecast
100
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
90
(2.5%) (6.2%) (5.4%) (4.5%)
80
Indexed mail volumes (2005=100)
70
60
50
40
Position on s-curve
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Excludes Royal Mail Large Letters (packets) which are included in parcel estimates
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 35Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Transactional Mail – Financial Services
Financial institutions have already captured many of the ‘quick
wins’ from e-substitution. Consequently substitution of the more
fragmented remainder will be slower
25% of transactional mail in the We expect growth in the penetration of online banking to slow in the
next five years as the remaining offline consumers become harder to “The direction banks
UK is sent by the top 5 banks, with convert are going in is about
other financial services companies communicating in
accounting for another 10% There will be a continued shift to paperless among online banking
users. The current 44% of consumers who state they will always want the medium of
to receive paper statements is likely to reduce over the projection choice. Paper is now
Statements constitute approximately period just one of a number
of media and we
half of mail sent by banks, 50% RBS changed from monthly to quarterly statements in Feb 2013 and
we expect other banks may follow suit. This will have a significant
have been very
of which is current accounts impact on current account volumes, but monthly credit card successful at
statements are seen as more important as they prompt payment and improving the
other statements are already sent less frequently online proposition”
Paperless current accounts are now Top five UK bank
c. 40% of the total We estimate that of the non-statement mail sent by financial services companies, around 30% is
Proportion of UK individuals difficult to substitute due to regulation (e.g. the requirement for a ‘wet’ signature) or is the delivery
registered for internet of a physical item (e.g. a credit card)
banking, 1998-2011
100% “As our digitisation increases it isn’t While the substitutable remainder is
80% straightforward that our letter volumes early on in its substitution S-curve, its
60% decrease. There’s baseline growth and a fragmented nature means the rate of
40%
significant amount of non-statement mail, e.g. decline is likely to be longer and flatter
20%
credit card renewals. Digitisation cannot offer than that of statements
0%
a viable substitute for many of these items”
2010
1998
2004
2006
2008
2002
2000
Top five UK bank
Source: British Banking Association Annual Abstract 2012, PwC interviews, PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 36Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Transactional Mail – Government
We expect Government mail volumes to decline faster than
historically driven by budgetary pressures and Central
Government’s Digital by Default strategy
The majority of Government mail is transactional in nature, relating We expect a continued decline in Government mail “We will
to services such as benefits and taxation volumes as a result of: continue to
We believe the Government sector as a whole is towards the beginning • Increased budgetary pressures. Government push for
of the s-curve with significant scope for further mail reductions surveys estimate the cost of a digital transaction more people
can be c.30x lower than a postal transaction to use
However, there are large variations as some government services have paperless as
achieved significant online penetration, while others are not expected • Demand for a better digital service for
it is so much
to substitute at all customers
cheaper”
However, in a number of areas, declines will be Local Authority
Central government mail sent to the limited by customer acceptance and technological
general population vs. vulnerable
groups (Illustrative)
challenges
46% of the • Many online services will need to seamlessly
“We are
constrained
public have used link to multiple government databases by what our
Sent to a government • Certain customer groups have more limited ICT can
vulnerable
groups online online access, e.g. only 46% of people aged 65 handle”
transactional Local Authority
and over have home internet access
service 83% Digital by Default
of Annual Self The Government’s Digital Strategy was released in November
Sent to Assessment forms
general 2012 to drive the development and use of online government
population were submitted services to reduce non-digital transactions (post, phone and face
online to HMRC to face meetings).
in 2011/12*
“Digital by Default is a major initiative which may accelerate the
post decline”
Central Government Department
Note: *Of on time Self Assessment submissions
Source: Royal Mail data, Central Government data, Digital Efficiency Report, Government Digital Strategy, Ofcom Communications Report 2012
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 37Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Transactional Mail – B2B mail
B2C companies are increasingly encouraging consumers to switch
to online communications to reduce costs. Rapid declines are
therefore expected to continue
Mail costs are an increasing focus Examples
of B2C businesses...
Billing
B2C businesses with large customer 53% of B2C businesses will encourage B2C invoicing continues to move online and
bases are increasingly seeking to their customers to switch to digital with a we expect significant mail declines in the
switch customers from paper to next 3 years as businesses develop their
digital interactions to reduce costs further16% planning to stop paper online billing processes
As a result we expect B2C businesses transactions at some point in the future “We are targeting a significant increase in
to significantly reduce mail usage the amount of online billing so the vast
over the next ten years majority is online”
“We will never get everybody online but
B2C Company
we are aiming for as many as possible to
cut down our mailing costs”
B2C company
...however, customer demand for
paper is likely to act as a
significant inhibitor
47% of B2C SMEs will continue to use Insurance
Businesses recognise that a mail because their customers will continue to Recent regulation changes allowed
proportion of their customer base will request paper insurance certificates to be sent
continue to prefer paper copies of electronically. Companies have plans to
transactions, predominantly for “We are dependent on customer move significant volumes online, but many
record keeping. As companies reach preferences and some will not switch off are held back by the IT investment
this baseline of paper customers, the paper billing as they like to file the bill” required. The largest impact is likely to be
rate of mail decline will reduce B2C company in the middle of the projection period
Source: PwC surveys, PwC interviews
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 38Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Transactional Mail – B2B mail
B2B transactional mail volumes are more fragmented than B2C,
but the inhibitors to substitution are lower
B2B mail is more fragmented and represents lower volume, Examples
higher value transactions than B2C mail. The printing and
Mail costs are mailing costs are usually a lower proportion of the overall Invoicing
generally less of a transaction or customer value than in B2C, reducing the
direct focus for B2B B2B invoicing is likely to follow a similar
incentive to reduce mail trend to B2C, with declines in the next few
companies than
B2C... years leading to a low baseline of businesses
...but lower barriers which prefer paper by the end of the
mean the mail projection
reduction is “Some businesses like to receive a one page
expected to paper summary for their accounts”
The barriers to reducing mail are lower, with less investment accelerate and B2B Invoicer
often required to allow online communication and a smaller decline to a smaller
base of businesses resistant to electronic interaction than the base
base of consumers
“If we’re insuring something for multimillions, like an ocean liner we Insurance
send fancy documents. We send a lot physically as it makes people feel
Rate of decline is lower than for consumer
like they have bought something valuable. It’s the bottom-end, mass
insurance, with relatively low demand for
markets that will go more online, like car insurance” paperless insurance in the marketplace.
Large Insurance Company
“There’s some element of demand, but we
haven’t seen a massive appetite”
B2B Insurance advisor
63% of B2B businesses
encourage their customers to switch to
digital vs. 53% for B2C
Source: PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 39Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Direct Mail
We expect direct mail volumes to stabilise towards the end of the
period. The weak economy was a major driver of the rapid declines
seen in recent years
Direct mail historical and projected volumes, 2005-23
Forecast
120
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
(2.7%) (6.1%) (2.9%) (1.3%)
100
Indexed mail volumes (2005=100)
80
60
Position on s-curve
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Excludes Royal Mail Large Letters (packets) which are included in parcel estimates
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 40Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Direct Mail
Historically, direct mail declined as a share of total advertising,
but it is likely to reach a new equilibrium level as internet
advertising matures
Total advertising expenditure follows GDP and is now recovering from
the recession. Direct mail declined along with total advertising, but also
1/3 of British consumers 47% of British retailers
lost share of marketing spend to fast growing online marketing. The still prefer to receive posted
use mail as a marketing
decline rate is slowing as online advertising matures and the economy catalogues rather than using
channel
recovers websites
Direct mail share of total advertising spend, 1982-2011
The companies that are most successful at using direct mail integrate it
25% with other channels to use all the available data to improve the
targeting and relevance of direct mail messages
Growth due to
20% improvements in printing “Direct mail is a relationship builder and for high-value customers it
quality and costs can demonstrate the value of the relationship”
Leading advertising agency
15% Return on investment (ROI) in direct mail is comparable with other
media and is becoming more measureable due to innovation in direct
mail response tracking
10%
“Direct mail is a massively important medium and it works”
Marketing consultant
5%
There remains a threat that new technologies such as mobile will upset
the balance of ROI in the industry again, but declining volumes
0% increase the attractiveness of direct mail as mailings stand out more
1982
1985
1992
1995
2002
2005
1990
2000
2010
1983
1984
1986
1988
1989
1993
1991
1994
1996
1998
1999
2003
2001
2004
2006
2008
2009
2011
1987
1997
2007
easily
“When volumes drop below a certain threshold some savvy marketers
will realise the channel is underutilised and ‘rediscover’ it”
Mailing house
Source: The Advertising Association/ WARC Expenditure Report, PwC interviews, PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 41Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Publishing Mail
The rapid decline in publishing mail in recent years was largely
driven by the majority of newsletters going online...
Publishing mail historical and projected volumes, 2005-23 Forecast
100
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
90
(9.1%) (9.4%) (5.0%) (3.0%)
80
Indexed mail volumes (2005=100)
70
60
50
40
Position on s-curve
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Excludes Royal Mail Large Letters (packets) which are included in parcel estimates
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 42Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Publishing Mail
... the publishing segment is now largely comprised of magazines,
which have proven more resilient to e-substitution, resulting in a
slower decline over the projection period
B2C magazines B2B magazines Newsletters
B2C Magazine subscription B2B Magazine subscription Estimated newsletter volumes
volumes 2007-12 volumes 2007-12 2007-12
Historical
100 200 800
trends
Items (m)
Items (m)
Items (m)
150 600
50 100 400
50 200
0 0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Consumer print magazine circulation Business media customers are Newsletters moved online very
declined by c.34% between 2007-2012 generally high value, paying much quickly, only 25% are still offline
but subscriptions grew by c.17% higher subscriptions than consumers “We switched about 2 years ago
and are targets for on-sell of data and because it was not cost-effective “
The uptake of digital editions has been
other services University
slower then expected and has not
replaced print “The print and distribution costs are
developments
This decline will slow towards the
a small percentage of our revenue end of the period as a baseline is
Digital brands generated an estimated
Current
per customer” reached of senders that see a benefit
15% of consumer magazine publisher Large B2B publisher
revenues in 2012 from newsletters sent physically,
The incentives for both the sender such as charities encouraging
“We believe digital subscriptions are and receiver to stop the print edition donation
attracting new customers and not are low so we expect declines to “We send newsletters to previous
replacing existing ones” continue to be relatively slow
Leading publisher
donors, to make them aware of the
Substitution will accelerate slightly but results of their help. Newsletters are
remain relatively slow costly but they will stay offline”
National charity
Source: Enders, Mintel, PwC Entertainment and Media Outlook, PwC interviews, PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 43Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Social Mail
Social mail volumes are not expected to decline radically in the next
10 years. While some contraction is expected, most of the electronic
substitution has already occurred
Social mail historical and projected volumes, 2005-23
Forecast
100
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
90
(1.9%) (5.3%) (3.8%) (3.2%)
80
Indexed mail volumes (2005=100)
70
60
50
40
Position on s-curve
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Excludes Royal Mail Large Letters (packets) which are included in parcel estimates
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 44Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Social Mail
Personal letter use has declined rapidly, but greetings cards are
more resilient and now represent the majority of social mail
Average social mail received per Split of social mail, 2012
person, 2006, 2009 & 2012 Innovation
18
Some decline in Social mail may be
16 Letters/
Postcards mitigated by innovative platforms that
13 20% drive usage of mail:
• Moonpig allows online design and
personalisation of cards
Greetings cards
80% • The TouchNote app sends
smartphone photos as postcards
2006 2009 2012
Social letters and postcards have been How will the number of cards you send
through the post this Christmas compare
Econometric drivers declining rapidly as consumers move to with last year?
the wide range of alternatives 65%
Historical relationships suggest social
Response frequency (%)
mail has a number of underlying Consumers are also sending fewer 16%
5% 8%
economic drivers such as number of greetings cards, but the decline is slower 2%
households, price and quality of as electronic alternatives have not
Increase significantly
Increase slightly
Decrease slightly
Decrease significantly
Stay the same
service. Price rises have contributed to gained wide acceptance
more than half of the decline in social
mail volumes during the last five years The overall decline in social mail is likely
to slow as the mix continues to move
towards greetings cards
Source: Royal Mail data, Ofcom Postal Tracker Q4 2012, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 45Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Parcels
Parcel volumes have been growing steadily and this is expected to
continue during the projection period
Parcels historical and projected volumes, 2005-23 Forecast
200
180
160
Indexed mail volumes (2005=100)
140
120
100
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2005-08 2008-13 2013-18 2018-23
80
Position on s-curve 4.3% 3.7% 3.3% 2.1%
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Includes Royal Mail Large Letters (packets), DSA parcels and couriers
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 46Section 4 – Projections by mail segment Parcels
Despite strong growth in B2C, overall growth in parcels is reduced
by the lower growth rates of B2B and C2X
Parcel projected volume growth by segment,2013-23 3 Business-to-consumer (B2C)
B2C B2B C2X TOTAL
3.7% • Increased uptake of online shopping
3.3%
3.0% via PC, tablet or smart phone is to
remain the key growth driver,
CAGR (%)
2.3%
2.0% 2.1%
1.8% especially in Clothing, Footwear and
1.0% Health & Beauty
“Online is growing but the growth rate
2013-18 2018-23 is slowing down” Health &
Beauty retailer
1 Consumer-to-consumer 2 Business-to-business (B2B) “Online growth is fast for clothing
/ business (C2X) where it has been encouraged by free
• The market is less exposed to the risks of digital
• Growth will be returns” Department store retailer
substitution because it is mainly composed of
mainly driven by
physical items that need to be delivered
online sales (e.g. 77% of • Volumes through traditional remote
eBay) • Volumes are expected to channels (mail, phone, store orders)
consumers grow at c.2-4% p.a. by 2023, 61% of are expected to continue declining and
• Social parcel think the trending with the improving retailers think represent a gradually smaller portion
volumes will number of UK economy click & collect of overall B2C volumes (now c.15%)
remain stable with parcels they will reach
only limited send will • The growing popularity of growth limits • Fulfilment of Music & DVDs, Video
population growth stay the Click & Collect and similar in 3-5 years Games and Books (c.40% of current
and behavioural same delivery formats will create or even parcel deliveries) will remain under
change expected an additional uplift in the earlier pressure until 2023 due to intensifying
medium term** digital substitution
Note: *Click and collect parcels transported by retailers’ own fleets; **As the Click & Collect delivery is within the retailer’s network, this drives the B2B market rather than B2C
Source: Royal Mail data, PwC interviews, PwC surveys, PwC analysis
Outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023
PwC 47You can also read
