The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition

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The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
The Office Property
Telescope
Investment & Financing Keys
Spain 2022
Expanded Edition

January 2022

Strategy and Transactions
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
2                                                                                       4             Financing
                                                                 ► Vacancy Rate in Madrid (9.7%) and Barcelona (8.6%)
                                                                   increasing at a higher pace due to the weak demand.
                                                                 ► High activity of New Supply & Refurbishments due
                                                                   to the current weak demand. 500,000 sq.m recently
                                                                                                                                                   Activity
                                                                   delivered in 2021 in Madrid and Barcelona.
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
                                             Supply &            ► Take-Up in Madrid and Barcelona stands at 360,000
                                                                                                                                      ► Spanish banks forced to focus on business
                                                                                                                                        district transactions but still flexible to compete
                                                                   and 325,000 respectively.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                            Demand              ► The 26 and 74 projects under construction in
                                                                                                                                        under the current circumstances.
                                                                                                                                      ► For International banks location is not a real
                                                                   Madrid and Barcelona to be delivered from 2022 to                    issue as long as the sponsor creditworthiness is
                                                                   2023 will cause a negative impact on rents expected                  high and vacancy risk remains under control
                                                                   to be partially compensated by high inflation.

1       Macro                                                                                                                         ► and Borrowing cost levelling off but still below
                                                                 ► Prime submarkets.- Net effective rents leakage                       than 2017.
                                                                   keep on widening progressively given the higher
        Overview                                                   incentives and other allowances provided by
                                                                   landlords.
                                                                                                                                      ► Alternative capital providers eager to
                                                                                                                                        structure junior / mezzanine financing tranches.

      Lopsided recovery expected

                                             3                                                                   5
         after COVID impact
              2021-2022                               Office Properties                                                                 Key Performing
► GDP expected growth: + 6.4% in 2022                 Investment Market                                                                 Indicators
  (vs. 5.74% 2021).
                                              ► EMEA region represents 33% of the worldwide Office                                  Key Indicators by areas in 2022
► Unemployment rate still high but
                                                Investment volume. International investors are currently
  decreases 156bps to 14.6% in 2021.
                                                overweighting Americas and Asia against Europe                                      Madrid                              Barcelona
► Exports will lead the recovery: Current
                                              ► Office Investment volume increased by 32% in Spain                                  Rent        Cap. Value              Rent       Cap. Value
  imports coverage rate levels off at 95%
                                                during 2021 (+€669m YoY Var.) and accounted for 27% of               Max. ►         40 (5%)     15,000 (-1%)            27 (4%)    9,818 (-6%)
                                                the total non-residential Real Estate investment, well

                                                                                                                              CBD

                                                                                                                                                                  CBD
► Consumer confidence: Plunges 12 points                                                                             Avg. ►         31 (-6%)    11,625 (-12%)           24 (-4%)   8,727 (-13%)
  since October, from 97 to 85 due to the       below the historical average.                                        Min. ►         26 (-10%)   9,750 (-16%)            20 (0%)    7,273 (-9%)
  new outbreaks of Covid.
                                              ► The overall high valuation of non-prime office properties is         Max. ►         16 (-6%)    3,657 (-1%)             24 (0%)    7,200 (25%)

                                                                                                                                                                  22@
                                                                                                                              DEC
► Madrid region steps up above the rest of      the main reason of the lower investment activity from 2017           Avg. ►         12 (-8%)    2,743 (1%)              22 (-4%)   6,600 (20%)
  the country as young people is moving to      to 2020. Value Added and Opportunistic investors still on            Min. ►         9 (-15%)    1,943 (-3%)             16 (0%)    4,800 (25%)
  the capital due to better labour              the chase of price correction to profit from the gloomy
                                                context.                                                                              Rent (€/sqm/mth) (YoY Var. %)   Cap. Value (€/sqm) (YoY Var. %)
  opportunities.

                                                                                                                                                                                            1 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
Once capital has been raised… there is a huge
                                                                      pressure to be allocated
                                                                      Investment allocation from pension funds is growing and growing
     The Office Property Telescope
     Spain 2022                             Investible stock of commercial Real                                         Avg. allocation to Real Estate
     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                      Estate ($trn)                                                               investments (%)

                                            40                                                                                10
Global assets under management, ~$trn       35
12
                                                                                                                                  9
                                            30
10                                          25                                                                                    8
8                                           20
6                                           15                                                                                    7

4                                           10
                                                                                                                                  6
2                                            5
0                                            0                                                                                    5
                                                     United        Europe          China          World                               Insurance     Private       Public
      2007
      2008
      2009
      2010
      2011
      2012
      2013
      2014
      2015
      2016
      2017
      2018
      2019
      2020
      2021

                                                     States                                                                            company    pension fund pension fund
           Dry powder   Allocated Capital
                                                               2000            2010           2021
                                                                                                                                                   2010        2021

“Dry Powder”
on the rise while investment
managers struggle to allocate
the equity efficiently
                                                                    $37trn                                   Global investible commercial stock
                                                                                                             has quadrupled in the past 21 years

                                            Source: Prekin, Oxford Economics, third party Real Estate international consultants                                               2 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
Despite high liquidity, office global investment
                                                               still cautious in 2021: €269bn
                                                               While rapid rental adjustment and valuation haircuts in the US due to COVID have
 The Office Property Telescope                                 attracted a bunch of avid value added and opportunistic investors. Overall
 Spain 2022                                                    sentiment is that Europe is still “overvalued”
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                                                     EMEA

                                                                                               33%
                                                                                                       Transactional volume
                                                                                                       €88bn (-2% vs. 2020)
                                                                                                       (40% in 2020 and 39% in
                                                                                                       2019)

                                                       Americas

Although it is high time to refurbish     39%          Transactional volume
                                                       €106bn (-42% vs. 2020)
                                                       (35% in 2020)
most of its office inventory, EMEA
region, with €88bn, seems to be loosing
momentum against other investment                                                                                     Asia Pacific
destinies
                                                                                                       28%            Transactional volume
                                                                                                                      €75bn (7% vs. 2020)
                                                                                                                      (25% in 2020)
                                          Source: RCA –Real Capital Analytics                                                                3 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
European CBD Offices Valuation “in the paradise”
                                                                                            Average Capital values in MAD and BCN are still climbing since 2013.

 The Office Property Telescope
 Spain 2022                              10 Year
                                           Bond
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                 (31st Dec. 2021)                      0.1%      0.9%        (0.3%)     0.4%        (0.3%)       (0.3%)     0.1%     (0.2%)      0.4%      0.1%       (0.0%)     1.0%        -        0.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cap. Values
                                   Yield 2021 – Dif. 10
                                            year bond
                                                                        244 bps   263 bps     300 bps    285 bps      310 bps      280 bps   387 bps   301 bps    265 bps   344 bps     304 bps   209 bps    n.a.      340 bps

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (€/sqm)
                                    Spread var. 20-21                   65 bps    62 bps       33 bps    70 bps       48 bps       68 bps    40 bps    43 bps     65 bps    85 bps      113 bps   63 bps     n.a.      155 bps
European Yield Chart (04-22E; %)   2021 Capital Values
                                              (€/sqm)
                                                                        36,800    42,042      18,667     10,182       18,214       18,480    16,150    15,789     13,161    9,000       10,200    19,355    17,829     7,520

7%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                €50k
                                                                                   7.1%

                                               Cap. Values Growth (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        .
                                                                        12.4%                                                                                                                                                           .

6%                                                                                                                                 10.3
                                                                                                                       4.2%                                                                       9.7%
                                                                                               2.4%                                          0.0%      3.5%                                                 16.5%

                                               2020 - 2021
                                                                                                                                                                  (0.3%)
5%                                                                                                        1.8%                                                                          2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                            11.4%                                      13.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  €10k
4%
        France       Germany                                                                                                                                                                                                      €0k

                                                                                   London

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lisbon
                                                                                                Munich

                                                                                                                                              Dublin

                                                                                                                                                                   Madrid
                                                                                                                       Frankfurt

                                                                                                                                    Berlin

                                                                                                                                                        Amster.

                                                                                                                                                                             Brussels

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Milan
                                                                         Paris

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Luxemb.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Vienna
                                                                                                          Barcelona
3%      Spain        UK
                                                  8%
        Italy
2%
                                                  7%
      2005

      2013
      2004
      2006
      2007
      2008
      2009
      2010
      2011
      2012
      2014
      2015
      2016
      2017
      2018
      2019
      2020
      2021
     2022E

                                                  6%

                                                  5%
Europe has experienced an
overall yield                                     4%
compression, that has                             3%
resulted in a considerable
increase in Capital                               2%
Values, while rents are
                                                  1% Min. 2007                                                        Max. 2009                   2021 Prime Yield (%)                  2022 Prime Yield (%)
wearing out
                                              Source: EY, Bloomberg                                                                                                                                                          4 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
Are office prices in Spain leveling-off?
                                                                                                                                                    Investors are still discriminating those who set the new trends against
                                                                                                                                                    the trailers
 The Office Property Telescope
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Pandemic
 Spain 2022
                                                                  2010                                                        2011                                                 2012                                                            2013                                                                    2014                                                                  2015                                                                 2016                                                                        2017                                                                                     2018                                                                            2019                                                                             2020                                                                   2021
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                              Bear Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bull Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Level - off
                                                              Real Comps < Theoretical                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Real Comps > Theoretical Cap. Values                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Real Comps =
                                                                    Cap. Values                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Theoretical Cap. Values
             2021 CRE Investment
             Breakdown:                             15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rental
                                                    14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 decrease
                 Logistics                          13
                   29%                              12
                                                    11
                                  Hotels
 Retail                                             10
                                   23%
  13%                                      €k/sqm    9
                                                     8
                                                     7
                                                     6
                                                     5
                                                     4
Office
                             Alternative             3
 27%                                                 2
                                 8%                                                  2 Years                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8 Years                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2 Years
                                                     1
                                                     0

 Spanish Office Investment

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sede de McKinsey
                                                                                                                                                                                         Pinar
                                                                                                                                                                               Leattad

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Torre Sabadell
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Project Sea
                                                                                                    Recoletos 3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Recoletos

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Genova 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Palacio de Miraflores

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Castellana, 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Castellana, 91
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Veazquez 123

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sede BNP Paribas

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Plaza de la Lealtad 2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Serrano, 67

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Velazquez, 34
                                                                                                                                                                  Av. Burgos

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Paseo Recoletos

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Castellana 55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Torre Cepes

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Movistar Centre
                                                                        Oquendo 23

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Principe Vergara

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aborro Corporacion

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Fernando el Santo, 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Velázquez, 108

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Claudio Coello, 123
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Paseo de la Habana, 3
                                                         Recoletos 33

                                                                                     Recoletos 22

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Monte Esquinza

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sede de Castrecas

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rios Rosas, 24

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tanger 73
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   P Castellana 42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           General Lacy, 23

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Francisco de Gervas, 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Urla Menendes next Mq
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Fernando el Santo,20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Manues de Falla 7
                                                                                                                  Edificio Edison

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Torre Espacio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Serrano 85
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sede del Deutsche Bank
                                                                                                                                                    Serrano 240
                                                                                                                                    Torre Picasso

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Fernando de Santo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Edificio de CaixaBank
 Market in 2021 started to
 show high volatility in
 transaction values where
 only super prime                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ¾ of this
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       transaction
 assets where able to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    s in BCN
 keep up                                                                                                          Top 5 annual Real Comps (€/sqm)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Theoretical Capital Value (€/sqm)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
European Investment Office Market:
                                                                               Transactions in Spain have not been material in Europe in 2021.

 The Office Property Telescope
 Spain 2022
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

           Spain accounted for 3% of
           the Total Office Investment                                                                                                                 €1.400m
           in Europe
                                                                                                                                      €1.026m
    Germany
                                 United                         €677m                           €739m             €765m
                                Kingdom
      24%
                                  22%

                                                              Media Works                      30 Fenchurch     ABN AMRO HQ         High Tech Campus   Four Frankfurt
                                           France               Munich                            Street                                Eindhoven        (Tower 1)
                                            14%                  Office                            Office            Office               Office           Office
 Other
 21%

         Norway                 Sweden
           3%                     8%
                  Netherlands            Spain
                      5%                  3%
                                                                 BUYER                            BUYER              BUYER               BUYER            BUYER
                                                            Union Investment,                  Brookfield AM     VolkerWessels,        GIC, Oaktree      Allianz RE
                                                                  Hines                                         Victory Advisors,
                                                                                               VENDOR
                                                                                                                 G&S Vastgoed                             VENDOR
                                                                 VENDOR                    Delancey, M. Safra                           VENDOR
                                                                                                 & CO                                  Ramphastos      Gross & Partner
                                                                                                                   VENDOR
  Pentagon                                                       Officefirst
                                                                                                                  ABN AMRO             Investment
  Portfolio
(#21 in European                                               95,998 sqm                       51,095 sqm        67,998 sqm          272,993 sqm       83,158 sqm
 Deals Ranking)
                                                    Source: EY, RCA – Real Capital Analytics                                                                          6 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
European Investment Office Market:
                                                                             Spain (€2,773m) accounted for 3% of total European Office
                                                                             Investment in 2021.
The Office Property Telescope
                                                                                                          Purchase
Spain 2022                                    #       Country                  Asset          GLA (Sqm)
                                                                                                          Price (€m)
                                                                                                                                          Buyer                              Vendor

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                              1    Germany       Four Frankfurt (Tower 1)      83,158       1,400      Allianz RE Germany, BVK                Gross & Partner
                                              2    Netherlands High Tech Campus Eindhoven     272,993       1,026      GIC, Oaktree                           Ramphastos Investments
                                                                                                                       VolkerWessels, Victory Advisors, G&S
                                              3    Netherlands ABN AMRO HQ                     67,998        765                                              ABN AMRO
                                                                                                                       Vastgoed
                                              4    UK            30 Fenchurch Street           51,095        739       Brookfield AM                          Delancey, M. Safra & Co
 European Initial Yields 2021                 5    Germany       Media Works Munich            95,998        677       Union Investment, Hines                OfficeFirst
                                                                                                                       Epargne Fonciere, Primonial REIM, La
                                              6    France        Shift                         45,999        626                                              Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield
                Prime Yield       Maximum                                                                              Francaise, EDF Energy
 Country                                      7    Germany       Pandion Officehome (Soul)     44,699        600       Union Investment                       Pandion
                      2021    last 10 years
                                              8    Switzerland Crown                           37,999        566       Deka Immobilien                        Pictet Group
 France              2.50%           4.75%
                                              9    Germany       Skyper                        53,899        550       HDI Versicherung                       Allianz RE Germany
 Germany             2.90%           5.15%
                                              10 UK              One Braham                    30,193        538       Union Investment                       KHI Holdings, Aldgate Developments
 UK                  3.25%           5.50%    11 UK              Times Square                  34,466        533       Generali Group                         Blackstone
 Spain               3.00%           6.80%    12 UK              2-3 Bankside                  35,116        511       Omnicom                                grundbesitz europa (DWS)
 Italy               3.00%           6.50%    13 France          Window                        44,199        505       Primonial REIM, Societe Generale SA    Oxford Properties Group, Hines
                                                                                                                                                              Ilmarinen, Immobilien Europa Direkt,
 For further information, please see          14 Germany         Victoriastadt Lofts           68,498        425       Signa Group
                                                                                                                                                              Schroder RE Invt Trust
 Chapter 3 (Key Investments and Financing     15 UK              Minster Building              27,406        411       Suntec REIT                            FREO Group, Ivanhoe Cambridge
 Drivers) in the full report                                                                                           Samsung SRA, SCPI Primopierre,
                                              16 France          Influence                     32,780        332                                              Tishman Speyer
                                                                                                                       Primonial REIM, EDF Energy
                                              17 Italy           Libeskind Tower               33,499        320       ENPAIA                                 Generali Immobiliare Italy
                                              18 France          Les Portes d Arcueil          44,734        300       SCPI PF Grand Paris - Perial           Gecina
Top 5 deals occurred in                       19 France          Keiko                         25,999        300       Macif                                  AXA IM - Real Assets
2021 amounted to                              20 UK              Athene Place                  13,775        300       Great Eagle Hldg Ltd                   Henderson Park,Endurance Land Ltd
€4,607m, being the most                       21   Spain         Pentagon Portfolio            50,218        280       KanAM                                  Axa
relevant in terms of                          36   Spain         Hermanos Revilla              121,131       189       Realia Business                        Hermanos Revilla
Purchase Price the                            40   Spain         Project Sea - Everis HQ       27,000        180       Allianz                                Meridia
acquisition of 1 of the                       78   Spain         One Parc Central              21,000        120       DWS Group                              Varde Partners
Four Frankfurt Tower                          79   Spain         Plaza de les Glories          21,499        120       IBA Capital Partners                   Hispania SA (Blackstone)
                                                   Source: EY, RCA – Real Capital Analytics                                                                                                7 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
Europe: Permanent capital “helping” private
                                                                       equity to make their investment returns
                                                                       Despite the pandemic headwinds, investors’ appetite prevails with several
  The Office Property Telescope                                        mega-deals
  Spain 2022
  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                        2021                                                             2021 Single Asset
                                                           Most Active Submarkets                                              Top Deals
                                                                                  Volume   Var. 21-20                                          Allianz RE
 European Top Buyers and Sellers                                                                                                                 acquired
 Last 24 months                                            London               € 8,272m      -22.7%
                                                                                                                                 Four Frankfurt (Tower 1)
 Top 5 Buyers                          Acq (€m)   Props.   Paris                € 7,631m      -51.7%                 €1,400m      83,200 sqm in Frankfurt
 Union Investment                       € 5,007      39
 DekaBank                               € 4,594      34    Munich               € 4,242m      -34.3%
                                                                                                                                           GIC, Oaktree
 Allianz                                € 3,691      15    Frankfurt am Main    € 3,671m      -25.7%                                             acquired
 Corem Prop. Group                      € 3,582     132                                                                               High Tech Campus
 SBB i Norden                           € 3,379     252    Berlin-Brandenburg   € 3,019m      -27.5%
                                                                                                                                               Eindhoven
                                                                                                                     €1,026m
                                                           Stockholm            € 1,713m      +14.2%                            272,993 sqm in Eindhoven
 Top 5 Sellers                         Acq (€m)   Props.
 Blackstone                             € 5,365      69                                                                     VolkerWessels, Victory Adv.
 Klovern AB                             € 3,592     133                                                                               & G&S Vastgoed
 BNP Paribas                            € 3,343      27                                                                                        acquired
 TLG Immobilien AG                      € 3,259     301                                                               €765m             ABN AMRO HQ
 Hemfosa Fastigheter                    € 2,627     210                                                                       67,998 sqm in Netherland
Source: RCA – Real Capital Analytics
                                                                                                                                           Brookfield AM
                                                                                                                                                 acquired
                                                                                                                      €739m             30 Fenchurch St.
Investment activity in European Office                                                                                              51,095 sqm in London
Properties was cut down to €89bn in
2020 (-35% compared to 2019) mostly                                                                                              Union Investment, Hines
driven by the high uncertainty resulting                                                                                                        acquired
from Covid-19                                                                                                                        Media Works Munich
                                                                                                                      €677m
                                                                                                                                    95,998 sqm in Munich
                                                                                                                                                   8 of 162
The Office Property Telescope - Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2022 Expanded Edition
2021 Spanish investment “on decade average”
                                                                    Investment volume in Office segment increased by +32% YoY due to the
                                                                    partial pandemic recovery suffered during the year.
 The Office Property Telescope
 Spain 2022
                                                   Total Office Investment Volume by Location (€bn)
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                                                                     4.3
                                                                                                                     4%
              2021 CRE Investment                            Other
              Breakdown:
                                                                                       3.5                                   +32%
                                                                                              3.4
                  Logistics                                  Barcelona                 4%
                                                                                               8%                   42%
                    29%                                                        3.0     17%
                                       Hotels                                                                                      2.8
 Retail                                                                        12%                           2.7
                                        23%                  Madrid                           25%
  13%                                                                                                        4%                     7%
                                                                                                      2.4
                                                                                                      4%     24%
                                                                               30%                                          2.1
                                                                                                                            6%
                                                                                                      35%
                                                                                                                            27%    59%
Office
 27%                             Alternative                                           79%
                                     8%                       1.2
                                                                                              67%                   54%
                                                              29%       0.8                                  72%
A total office pipeline investment volume of           0.7                     58%
                                                                        43%                           61%                   67%
€4,274m expected to be transacted in                  24%
                                                                                                                                   34%
                                                      24%     71%
Spain
               2,105        664      4,274            52%               57%
   1,506
                                                     2011     2012     2013    2014   2015    2016   2017   2018    2019   2020    2021
   Short    Medium Long Term TOTAL
   Term      Term                               Source: EY                                                                                 9 of 162
Who is playing the “office” game in Spain:
                                                              More room for value added strategies in 2022?

 The Office Property Telescope
 Spain 2022                                      Equity Out                                            Equity In
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Investment by typology in 2021:
     Madrid                  Barcelona

    30%       35%            36%
                                         47%

       35%                     17%

                    €m                      €m
Core               324   Core              774
Core+              324   Core+             275
Value Add          282   Value Add         585
            Core    Core+    Value Add

Financing shortage has
dragged higher risk
                                                 Debt
transactions (Value Add /
Opportunistic),
representing less than 40%
of total transacted
volume
                                                                                                                   10 of 162
Ownership understanding
                                                                                                                                      How to grow? There is a huge opportunity to take advantage of the
                                                                                                                                      obsolete stock as long as prices adjust
   The Office Property Telescope
   Spain 2022                                                                                                                                                                                                 (18%)
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Madrid & Barcelona office inventory
(m sqm)
        Barcelona

                                                                                                                    Market Share
        Madrid
                              18 19 19 19 19                                 19 19
                                                                                           20 20 21                                                       16.5 M sqm                                         3.7M sqm
                     18 18 18
15
       16 17                                                                                                                                                 (78%)

                                                                                                                    Total Inventory
                                                                                                                                                                 20.2 M sqm
2006
       2007
              2008
                     2009
                            2010
                                   2011
                                          2012
                                                 2013
                                                        2014
                                                               2015
                                                                      2016
                                                                             2017
                                                                                    2018
                                                                                           2019
                                                                                                  2020
                                                                                                         2021

  Spanish office market is                                                                                                                  Other landlords     IBA Capital       Starwood Capital
                                                                                                                                            Colonial            Pontegadea        Zambal Socimi
  highly fragmented, key
                                                                                                                                            Merlin Properties   Mutua Madrileña   Tristan Capital Partners
  players own 18% of GLA of
  the total inventory.
                                                                                                                Source: EY                                                                                              11 of 162
Madrid´s most of vacant space is located
                                                                                                                                                 between A1 and A2
  The Office Property Telescope
  Spain 2022                                                                                                                                                   A-1
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Most vacant        VACANT
                                                                                                                                                                                                     space location        SPACE
  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               CBD

 Vacant space in Madrid (k sqm)                                                                                                         M-40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               RBD

                                   Total                       Vacant                      Vacancy                                                                                                                              RC
 Zone                                                                                                                                      Castellana
                                   stock                       space                        rate %                                                                   M-40

                                                                                                                          A-6
Within                                                                                                                                                                                                                         DEC
                                      5,439                                  321                          5.9%
Calle – 30
                                                                                                                                                                                        A-2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               OUT
Outside
                                      8,635                           1,016                         11.8%
Calle – 30                                                                                                                                M-30

TOTAL                              14,074                             1,338                               9.5%                                                                                    New Inventory + Refurbishments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in 2023 – 2024
                                                                                                                                                                                              New Projects            New Projects
                                                                                                                                                                                  R-3         in 2023                 in 2024
                                                                                                                                 A-5                                                          254,541 sqm             132,631 sqm
       New Inventory trend 2009 – 2024 (sqm)*                                                                                                                                                 of potential GLA        of potential GLA
                                                                                                                                                        M-30
       *Excluding refurbishments
400k
                                                                                                                                                                            A-3

                                                                                                                                                                                                             +
300k
200k
100k
  0k
       2009
              2010
                     2011
                            2012
                                   2013
                                          2014
                                                 2015
                                                        2016
                                                               2017
                                                                      2018
                                                                             2019
                                                                                    2020
                                                                                           2021
                                                                                                  2022F
                                                                                                          2023F
                                                                                                                  2024F

                                                                                                                           Source: EY                                                                                                12 of 162
Madrid Letting Deals: Histogram 2017-2021
                                                         Number of letting deals according to the Rental Price interval

The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022                               Analysis letting deals in CBD and RBD by rental ranges (%)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                60%
                                         53%
                                 50%

                                 40%
                                                                             32%                           30%
                                 30%
                                                                                                                                                20%
                                 20%

                                 10%

                                  0%
                                                      22-25                       25-28                    28-32                     >32
                                                                           2017     2018       2019        2020          2021

                                         Analysis letting deals in CBD and RBD
                                             Low Range             Medium Range                                    High Range
                                 30%
                                                         MODE: -7%            MODE: -7%
                                 25%                     Growth YoY           Growth YoY
                                 20%

During 2021, prime               15%

rents (>32) have                 10%
been the top
                                  5%
beneficiaries
representing 20% of               0%
                                        22      23       24   25      26     27    28     29   30     31    32      33    34    35   36    37     38
total letting deals
                                                                           2017     2018       2019        2020          2021
                                Source: EY Analysis                                                                                                    13 of 162
Madrid CBD Leakage Analysis: 2018 vs 2021
                                                                       ERV vs. Passing Effective Rents “GAP” has significantly expanded from
                                                                       2018 to 2021 as landlords are struggling to defend occupancy
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022                                                                                           Avg.
                                                                      Median
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                                  Mode rent       effective          ERV        Leakage
                                                                       rent
                                                                                                      rent
ERV vs. average passing effective
rents GAP has increased from: -8%

                                                        2018
in 2018 to -18% in 2020 and -20% in 2021                              24.6 30.0 28.2 30.5                                          -8%
 35
                                                                     €/sqm/month €/sqm/month €/sqm/month €/sqm/month

 30
               -8%         -18%
                                        -20%

                                                        2020
 25
                                                                      26.0 24.0 26.9 33.0                                        -18%
 20                                                                  €/sqm/month €/sqm/month €/sqm/month €/sqm/month
          2018        2020         2021
             ERV        Avg effective rent              2021
c. 81% of the current passing rent
will optioned to break before 2024                                    26.0 24.5 24.8 31.0                                        -20%
             €8.6m
                         €6.1m       €31.9m                          €/sqm/month €/sqm/month €/sqm/month €/sqm/month
 €17.3m

  2022         2023       2024        Total                                Sample Size: 202 Observations -----   314,197 sqm
      c. 81%
                                               Source: EY Analysis                                                                             14 of 162
Madrid Vacancy – Chronic vacant inventory to
                                                                                                                                  be repositioned (even with positive net take up)
  The Office Property Telescope
  Spain 2022                                                                                                      In the Base Case, the office space in Madrid would be
                                                                                                                  occupied in 5.6 years (if considering 60% of net take-up). On                     Number of Years
  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                                                               the other hand, in the Base Case, Madrid office Market would                      Required to take-up the
                                                                                                                  need 16.7 years to take-up the vacant space, considering as                         total vacant space*
Madrid take-up evolution (sqm):                                                                                   net, the 20% of the total take-up space.

700.000
                                 Madrid Take Up (sqm)                                                                                                          450.000
600.000
                                                                                                                             Best Case=Max.Take-up
                                                                                                                                                                                                     5.0         7.4         14.9
500.000                                                                                                                                                         1.337.600
400.000

300.000                                                                                                                                                      400.000
                                                                                                                            Base Case=Avg. Take-up                                                   5.6         8.4         16.7
200.000                                                                                                                                                         1.337.600
100.000

     0                                                                                                                                                      360.000
                                                                                                                           Worst Case=Min. Take-up                                                   6.2          9.3        18.6
          2008
                 2009
                        2010
                               2011
                                      2012
                                             2013
                                                    2014
                                                           2015
                                                                  2016
                                                                         2017
                                                                                2018
                                                                                       2019
                                                                                              2020
                                                                                                     2021

                                                                                                                                                                1.337.600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           *
                                                                                                                                                                                                    60%          40%          20%
                                                                                                                                                     Take-up (sqm)     Vacant Space (sqm)
Current vacancy in Madrid                                                                                                                                                                          Conversion ratio from gross
stands at c. 1.3m sqm,                                                                                                                                                                               Take-up to net Take-up
which would take between 6                                                                                                                                                                    *Years that Market would need to occupy
                                                                                                                                                                                                 the total vacant space according to the
and 17 years to absorb                                                                                                                                                                      take-up in the best, worst and average case
at an average take-up rate                                                                                                                                                                  of the last years, considering 60%, 40% and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20% of Net Take-Up
                                                                                                            Source: EY Analysis                                                                                                    15 of 162
The arrival of hybrid worker is here… to stay?
                                                It is still to be seen how offices sill challenge the current context

The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
                                   US, after covid-19, how often would you like to have paid workdays at home?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                       Five     Four     Three      Two         One    Rarely

            Citizens

                                              31%              9%         14%         15%         11%           20%

Investors              Companies
                                                                                         Less than 3 days at home

            Workers
                                   People prefer going back to the office.
                                   The coworking spaces are too
                                   expensive for both the average
                                                                                          +45% of workers
Spanish “mileurista”               freelance individual and also Spanish
                                   companies.                                               prefer office
employee has not already
succeeded as a “worker”            Therefore, there is a real market for
from home                          companies that cannot afford an
                                   average CBD rental payment
                                                                                                                        16 of 162
What can be done with the high vacancy?
                                                                           Its time to think out of the box

   The Office Property Telescope
   Spain 2022
                                                                    1,338k vacant sqm
                                                                    in Madrid
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US, investors-owned laboratories, total
inventory (Q3 2021, ksqm and vacancy rate)
                            Total inventory ksqm   Vacancy rate %
        Boston                      2,769                5

 San Francisco                  2,155                    7

Raleigh-Durham            1,514                          8
     San Diego           1,245                           3
Washington DC          975                               3
      New York        790                                29
Denver-Boulder      539                                  20
   Philadelphia     520                                  7
        Seattle    372                                   8
   Los Angeles 204                                       20
  Source: JLL and EY Analysis

  $87bn lab industry
  investment will not
  take Real Estate for
  granted                                                           VACANT OFFICE STOCK
                                                                                                                     17 of 162
It is high time to open Madrid beyond Calle 30

                                                                          Madrid Nuevo Norte
 The Office Property Telescope
                                 Cuatro Torres
 Spain 2022
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Zoom out of Madrid city centre
   DEC                                                                     Santiago Bernabeu
   OUT
                                 Azca

                                 Colón

                                                                              Cibeles square

                                                 Atocha Railway Station

The challenge is to                                                             Retiro Park

make the most of                 Méndez Álvaro
Calle 30 and M-40
synergies
                                                                                               21 of 162
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                                22 of 162
New opportunity for mixed uses in the
                                                   southeast of Madrid
The Office Property Telescope
                                                   Atocha      Amazon                        Repsol      Campus
Spain 2022                                     Railway Station offices                       offices   Méndez Álvaro

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Méndez Álvaro Location

 A mixed-use concept with an
 excellent connection to take
 an outdated area to the
 next level.                    Residential
                                Tertiary use
                                                   Commercial
                                                   Cultural facilities
                                                                         Railway infrastructure
                                                                         Sports facilities
                                                                                                       Green spaces

                                                                                                                       23 of 162
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                                24 of 162
Campus Méndez Álvaro: the new “neighbourhood“
                                    Méndez Álvaro axis has become one of the fastest growing areas in recent years, adding value
                                    both for companies looking for new headquarters, and for those citizens looking for easy
                                    access by car or public transport.
The Office Property Telescope
                                                                                        Campus            Campus
Spain 2022                                   Cultural and        New                Méndez Álvaro      Méndez Álvaro
                                            sports facilities connections           Residential area    Offices area
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Campus Méndez Álvaro main floor

        Residential   Offices

The project, has been designed by
Estudio Lamela following
sustainability criteria and the
implementation of industrialized
solutions and processes.
                                                                                                                          25 of 162
Madrid will host the most relevant mixed used
                                       project in southern Europe
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Madrid Nuevo Norte Location

                                    1.2
                                Millions of sqm
                                                      81%                19%
                                                       Offices          Residential
                                of buildability

  The project which had
  been delayed for 30
  years is gathering
  momentum
                                                                                       26 of 162
Madrid Nuevo Norte first building
                                                             will be delivered in 2027
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                          Definitive approval     1 Implementation   initiative
                                                                     • Participation of more than
                                           of the modification               50% of the owners
                                           of the General Plan
                                                of Madrid
                                                                         •   Preparatory acts for future
                                                                             Compensation Boards               3    Urbanization
                                                                                                                    infrastructures             5   First building
                                                                                                                                                    delivered
Main objectives

 ❖   Strategic location                 2020               2021               2022              2023                2024                        2027
 ❖   Big scale of the project (5.6km)
 ❖   Variety of uses
 ❖   Best connections by railway and           Framework
     public transport                          agreement
                                                 signed
                                                                    2        Urban project and
                                                                             Compensation Boards                     4     Construction works

 ❖   Extend green areas and public
     facilities
 ❖   New Central Business District
                                          INVESTMENT AND RETURNS UNTIL 2040

                                                           €169m              +      €320m                 +   €306m                        €795m
                                                                                                                                            € 4.592/sqm
                                                           Acquisition          Land + infrastructure              Construction              Total cost
 A unique
 mixed-use                                                                     Yield on costs    7.25%
 hub in Europe
                                                                                                                                                                     27 of 162
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                                28 of 162
New 5.6 km from north to south that represent
                                                                              a great opportunity for Madrid
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Distribution of uses                                   Residential          Offices           Facilities

23.44%                                      76.56%
Private use                               Public use
                           11%

              34%                   11%

                     Total area
                    2,357k sqm       13%

                    19%       13%

The project opts for mixed uses                        Residential
                                                       Commercial
and aims to create a city that is                      Green spaces
bursting with life. The variety of uses                Sports facilities
                                                       Social, sanitary, educational facilities
will complement each other creating                    Private facilities
a 24/7 activity. This will prevent it                  Other facilities
                                                       Railway infrastructure
from becoming a commuter town.
                                                                                                                          29 of 162
Madrid Nuevo Norte is being built through a
                                                              social engagement framework
  The Office Property Telescope
  Spain 2022                                                     WHY?                                                 HOW?
  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                           The main goals pursued by this area are:            The Social Engagement Area allows to exploit the
                                                                                                  potential of the project in two ways:
Four domains                                  1   To integrate the neighbourhoods adjacent to
                                                  the Madrid Nuevo Norte project appropriately.
                                                                                                  1   To implement a strategy to adapt to social
                                                                                                      changes.
                                              2   To generate added social value for the
                                                  neighbourhoods connected to the project and         To minimise the negative consequences of
                                                  for the entire city of Madrid                   2   uncertainty.

                                                      SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT AREA PURPOSES
Green areas

                                                               WHAT?                                                 WHO?
                                              The five pillars underpinning Social Engagement     DCN (Distrito Castellana Norte) is the first Spanish
                                              Area action are:                                    company to create a Social Engagement Area to
                                                                                                  capitalise on inclusive and participatory urban
                                              1   Becoming familiar with understanding the
                                                  social dynamics of the neighbourhoods.
                                                                                                  planning. The Social Engagement is an area:

                                              2   Creating permanent two-way channels of          1   Structured.
                                                  communication.
Skyline including Madrid Nuevo Norte towers
                                              3   Enhancing the involvement of residents.         2   Coherent

                                              4   Finding common values.                          3   Permanent.
                                                  Incorporating the real need of the
                                              5   neighbourhoods into the Madrid Nuevo Norte      4   Integrated in the company.
                                                  project.

                                                                                                                                                         31 of 162
The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2020

                                WHAT IS
                                NEXT?
The Office Property Telescope
  Spain 2022
  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                         Offices             5.0
                                              The office market incoming trends have created the term Office
                                              5.0 which consider all the following points:

COVID PUSHING
TRANSFORMATION
The surge of Covid-19 has accelerated                                                       OPENNESS
digitalization of the office environment in
order to adapt to:                                                                       INCUSIVENESS
Working from home                                                                         SUSTAINABLE
Virtual meetings                                                                             DIGITAL
E-commerce                                                                               PRO - MOBILITY
                                                                                         CYBER SECURE
The increasing     reliance                                                                  HYBRID
on “apps” and other
technological platforms                                                               AUTONOMOUS CARS
in office buildings present a
potential gateway for
cybersecurity breaches
                                                                                                               33 of 162
Cybersecurity:
                                                        One building, two networks: IT and OT, two different environments

The Office Property Telescope
Spain 2022
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

      Key cybersecurity trends
                                                                    High-speed
                                                                     internet       Who manages building       Lightning
             1        Smart building data
                      analytics                      Wireless                         cybersecurity?
                                                                                                                            Elevators
                    Secure remote
                                                                                   What isolation controls
                                                                                      are in place?
           2        workers’
                    connections                                        Guest                                                        24/7 monitor
                                                                       access        What cybersecurity          HVAC sensors
                 Cloud data
                                                            VPN                       policies are there?
         3       protection
                                            IP Technology                            Who oversees BMS
                                                                                       operations?
               Worldwide 5G                                                                                                         Access
 5G    4                                                                                                             Fire
               implementation
                                                                    Interactive
                                                                                     When were security
                                                                       Media       measures last validated?
The increase of cyber attacks in recent           Audio and Video                     Has there been a
years has led companies to pay more                Conferencing                    building risk assessment?
                                                                                                                                 Video
attention to the cybersecurity, with                                                                                          Surveillance
a special focus on those unsecure                                        Digital                                 Energy
connections used by their                                               Signage                                Management
employees on and off side their HQs.
                                                                                                                                              34 of 162
For further information…
                                                                           Request the Expanded Edition
                                                                           Contents (+150 pages):
                                                                           1. Macro economic overview related to the office
                                                                              segment
                                                                           2. European office market performance
                                                                           3. Spanish office market understanding
                                                                           4. Madrid / Barcelona supply and demand analysis
                                                                                  •    New supply
                                                                                  •    Vacancy
The Office Property                                                               •
                                                                                  •
                                                                                       Rents
                                                                                       Take-up
                                                                           5. Office investment share and transactions pipeline in
Telescope                                                                     Spain
                                                                           6. Office financing market main drivers
Investment & Financing Keys                                                7. Detail of most active players and key financial
Spain 2022                                                                    terms offered
                                                                           8. Emerging trends within the office segment
#TheOfficePropertyTelescope                                                9. Office key investment factors

To request the expanded edition, please contact Javier García-Mateo, email: Javier.Garcia-Mateo.Morales@es.ey.com, telephone number: +34 659 900 215
                                                                                                                                                       35 of XX
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