THE NEW INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR EUROPE - CEPS Forum on the Future of European Industry
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TASK FORCE PROSPECTUS THE NEW INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR EUROPE CEPS Forum on the Future of European Industry March – June 2022
Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Industry 5.0 as a ‘North Star’ for the industrial strategy ............................................................... 3 Strategic autonomy and resilience of value chains ....................................................................... 7 Making the digital transition work for everyone ........................................................................... 9 Strategic autonomy in defence ..................................................................................................... 11 National resilience and recovery plans and the industrial policy ............................................... 13 One-off events ............................................................................................................................... 15 List of topics (March – June 2022) ................................................................................................ 16 Principles and guidelines for the Forum and its Working Groups ............................................. 17 Visit our page at Forum on the New Industrial Strategy for Europe Disclaimer: The proposed scope of the Working Groups of the Forum as presented in this Prospectus may be further defined in cooperation with Working Group sponsors. Cover image credit: https://www.vecteezy.com
Introduction Background On 10 March 2020, just as the Covid-19 pandemic was really starting to hit Europe, the European Commission launched a New Industrial Strategy for Europe, highlighting its overarching ambitions for the ‘twin transition’, a journey towards climate neutrality and digital transformation. The twin transition cuts across all EU policies and was presented as essential for promoting Europe’s competitive sustainability, as well as supporting the Commission’s ‘geopolitical’ ambitions by boosting the EU’s open strategic autonomy. However, the pandemic has prompted the EU to refocus its strategy, as expressed in the Commission’s May 2021 Communication on updating the EU’s industrial strategy. The need to ensure greater resilience has become the top priority for the EU institutions, alongside competitive sustainability and open strategic autonomy. Ensuring a resilient and sustainable post-pandemic recovery requires action on both the domestic and the external fronts. On the domestic front, key initiatives will include the systemic transformation of industry value chains; a sustainable approach to digitalisation; and a renewed focus on mitigating the impact of the pandemic on labour markets, accelerating the up- and reskilling of workers in sectors that are likely to have experienced the worst downturn. On the external front, the EU institutions will be called to carry out a careful and pervasive mapping of the EU’s strategic dependencies on other powers, especially in key technologies and raw materials, and to spur on the de-fragmentation of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) to strengthen the EU’s ability to act as a security provider in a deteriorating multilateral world order. One of the cornerstones of the EU’s post-pandemic industrial strategy will inevitably be found in the Resilience and Recovery Facility (RRF), which provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the EU and its Member States to pave the way for a coordinated transformation of the European economy. 1
CEPS Forum on the New Industrial Strategy for Europe Permanent Forum composed of five Working Groups and one-off events To support the European institutions in their quest for a resilient and sustainable post- pandemic recovery, CEPS has decided to set up a permanent Forum on the New Industrial Strategy for Europe, starting from February 2022 onwards. The Forum builds upon an extremely successful CEPS 2021 Task Force dedicated to the same topic. It adopts the same multi-stakeholder spirit and is open to all stakeholders, including institutions, businesses, academics and representatives of civil society. The Forum also adopts a similar multi-disciplinary, cross-sectoral approach. It is composed of five permanent Working Groups, dedicated to important transversal topics relating to the EU’s industrial strategy. One overarching Working Group will be dedicated to Industry 5.0 as a ‘North Star’ for the EU’s New Industrial Strategy. The four other Working Groups concern more specific themes: • Strategic autonomy and the resilience of value chains • Making the digital transition work for everyone • Strategic autonomy in defence • National resilience and recovery plans and the evolving industrial policy Each of these Working Groups is structured around three closed-door (online or hybrid) meetings to be held during each semester of the year. They will contribute concrete ideas and policy recommendations, translated into policy briefs and a Working Group final report, distilled from the Working Group’s contributions and discussions, desktop research and interviews. All Working Groups will reconvene in a plenary session at the end of the semester, i.e. in June and December, to take stock of the results of each stream of debate and to develop a consolidated list of policy recommendations. One-off events will also be organised as part of the Forum. For the first semester of 2022, they will cover aspects of the EU’s external action, namely: development and cooperation in line with the EU global gateway; and EU trade instruments against unfair practices. Additional details on the substantive coverage of the Working Groups and one-off events for the first semester 2022, as well as on participation in the Forum, are further developed in this Prospectus. For detailed information on fee rates for participation and sponsorship, please refer to our related Brochure. We would be very happy to welcome you onboard as a valued member of the Forum! 2
Industry 5.0 as a ‘North Star’ for the industrial strategy Background An essential element of a well-defined strategy is a ‘North Star’, i.e. a mission to be accomplished in the medium to long-term. The current EU's industrial strategy, as updated in May 2021, refers to different objectives, including resilience, competitive sustainability and the twin transition. We propose that the Industry 5.0 concept be further shaped and adopted as an overall framework for developing the objectives of the industrial strategy. In this perspective, we are organising four meetings on the key dimensions of the Industry 5.0 concept. Jobs and Skills 5.0 Strengthening the social resilience of the Member States, including through the promotion of policies for children and youth and the mitigation of the economic and social impact of the crisis, feature as one of the key objectives of the recently launched Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), as well as the European Pillar of Social Rights. Quality jobs and adequate skills are also a pre-condition for a successful European industrial strategy, which combines industrial competitiveness and social inclusion for a job-rich recovery. Up- and re-skilling policies, a strengthened vocational education and training system, adequate minimum wages, labour transition protection and effective social dialogue: how can these policies combine to successfully forge an industrial strategy that works for everyone? Digital transition 5.0 The digital transformation of industrial ecosystems is key to achieving long-term sustainability and resilience goals. It is essential, in this respect, that sufficient attention be given to the full technology stack, from infrastructure to microchips and edge/cloud architectures, suitable data governance and a human-centric approach to technologies such as Artificial Intelligence. Simply evoking the digital transformation as a pillar of the twin transition is not going to be sufficient. The EU industrial strategy should prioritise a fair distribution of value along supply chains, the empowerment of workers, meaningful R&D investment in key technologies, and competition rules that avoid value capture and create a more level playing field. Green transition 5.0 With the rapid rise of the EU ETS price, the investment case for transformational low-carbon technologies has improved. At the same time, the relative industrial competitiveness of climate neutral and high-carbon producers, both inside and outside the EU, becomes more important 3
– especially in the context of the ETS revision and CBAM proposal. Will the ETS allocation rules, carbon leakage risk mitigation, EU infrastructure finance and Member State industrial policies be sufficient to drive the increased deployment of climate neutral materials and industrial value chains? What should the role of sustainable product policies and carbon standards be? Will these policies also drive increased circularity? European Enterprise 5.0 A full transition to Industry 5.0 also requires a decentralisation at corporate level for the pursuit of the Green Deal and the Digital Economy. In this respect, sustainable corporate governance should be best translated into a new European enterprise model that is explicitly based on the principles of fairness, resilience and sustainability. Only in this way can industry truly become the real engine of the twin green and digital transition. Through this prism, how can one evaluate the different EU legal initiatives in the field? Is the EU on the right track for achieving its two overarching green and digital ambitions? Meeting topics 1. The need to strengthen the social resilience of the Member States for an industrial strategy that works for everyone 2. The digital transformation: an all-encompassing approach for long-term sustainability 3. Scaling-up climate neutral materials and green value chains 4. Sustainable corporate governance through the prism of the European enterprise model Relevant contacts Jobs and Skills Cinzia ALCIDI is Director of Research, Head of the Economic Policy Unit at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels and LUISS- School of European Political Economy- research fellow. Since November 2019 she is also the acting Head of the Jobs and Skills unit. Prior to joining CEPS, she worked at International Labour Office in Geneva and she taught International Economics at the University of Perugia (Italy). Her research activity includes international economics, macroeconomics, central banking and EU governance. Since 2015 she has been the coordinator of CEPS Academy Activities. She has experience in coordinating research projects and networks. She has published extensively on the economics and governance of the euro area crisis and participates regularly in international conferences. She holds a Ph.D. degree in International Economics from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva (Switzerland). 4
Digital transition Andrea RENDA is Part-Time Professor at the School of Transnational Governance of the European University Institute, in Florence (Italy). He is a Senior Research Fellow and Head of the CEPS unit on Global Governance, Regulation, Innovation and the Digital Economy (GRID). He is also Visiting Professor of Competition Policy and the Digital Economy at the College of Europe in Bruges (Belgium). He was a member of the EU High Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence. He is currently a member of the advisory group on Economic and Societal Impacts of Research (ESIR), for the European Commission, DG Research and Innovation; a member of the European Parliament's STOA international Advisory Board. He is a member of the OECD network of AI experts; and a member of the European Commission’s Expert Group on Smart Specialisation Strategies for Sustainability (S4). Green transition Vasileios RIZOS is a Research Fellow and Head of Sustainable Resources and Circular Economy at CEPS. He is an expert in various aspects of the circular economy and analyses regulatory and market barriers to the adoption of circular economy practices in Europe and beyond. Vasileios’ main research areas at CEPS include circular economy policies, industrial sustainability, green value chains, low-carbon transport and resource efficiency indicators. He was co-chair of the Circular Economy Task Force of the Think20 (T20) network that supported G20 activities under the German presidency 2016-17. Between 2016 and 2018 he was the coordinator of the CEPS Task Force on the Role of Business in the Circular Economy. Previously Vasileios worked in DG Environment at the European Commission and the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI). As a European Commission trainee he dealt with the implementation of the Waste Framework Directive and the use of economic instruments for improving resource efficiency across the EU. As a Project Officer at CEPI he worked on an assessment of producer responsibility schemes across Europe. He is the lead author of several publications on circular business innovation and policy instruments that can encourage the green market transition. Milan ELKERBOUT is a Research Fellow working in CEPS’ energy, resources and climate team in Brussels. His research focuses on EU climate policy, in particular the EU Emissions Trading System and industrial transformation. He has been closely involved in analysing previous EU ETS revision processes, as well as the role of the EU ETS in the larger EU climate policy mix. Other topics of interest include state aid control, Green Deal governance and industrial policy, and the impacts of Brexit. In 2019 and 2020, Milan was a visiting Mistra Fellow at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute in Stockholm. His academic background is in political economy and European Studies. 5
European enterprise model Malorie SCHAUS is a Research Fellow in CEPS’ GRID unit and Coordinator of the Hidden Treasures Programme and the Forum on the New Industrial Strategy for Europe. Her core research interests cover EU and international trade and investment law and economics, EU competition law and economics, as well as EU company law and corporate governance. Prior to joining CEPS, she worked as a company lawyer, and she has built experience through internships at the World Trade Organization (WTO), at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), at the Court of Justice of the European Union, and in an international law firm. She graduated in law from the University of Liège (Belgium) and the University of Maastricht (The Netherlands). She earned a LL.M. in International Economic Law from the Graduate Institute in Geneva (Switzerland). She holds a Ph.D. in WTO law from the European University Institute in Florence (Italy). 6
Strategic autonomy and resilience of value chains Background How important are global value chains for European trade and industrial policies? The first topic the Working Group will address is how strong the increase in imports of parts and components by firms and the increase in supplies of intermediate goods producers is for European economies. The group will review data sources that allow for the analysis of trade in output and value added, distinguishing for intermediate and final consumption goods. It will also take stock of firm level data which were of major importance for identifying the impact of outsourcing and the relocation of parts of the production process across borders. The second topic concerns the impacts of greater trade in intermediate goods. Expectations of the positive effects on productivity and growth have met with concerns about production losses due to supply chain disruptions and potential negative effects on social standards, income distribution, the environment and GHG emissions. The third topic of the Working Group concerns the consequences for trade policy. Given the contrasting assessments of the increase of outsourcing parts of intermediate goods production to foreign countries with lean logistics, trade policy is confronted with a wide and growing set of demands. This third focus of the Working Group will debate whether trade policy should take on charges outside its classical domain. Should trade policy take regulatory measures to avoid shortages in intermediate goods supplies, impose standards for inclusive trade and the environment and project/reflect foreign policy ambitions? Meeting topics 1. Current and foreseen challenges for global value chains: Implications for Europe 2. Partnerships and multilateral cooperation for the resilience of global value chains 3. Due diligence and sustainability requirements in value chains 7
Relevant contacts Andreas KOPP is a Senior Research Fellow at CEPS. He co-leads the GRID unit. He is also permanent member of the Investment Committee of the InvestEU Fund and board member of the Supervisory Board of the EIT Urban Mobility (Barcelona). He has done public policy research for more than 20 years, working for the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the OECD, the World Bank and the European Commission. He has a particular interest in the economics and policies of international trade and production location. He has worked extensively, in academic research and policy making, on fiscal policies and regulation to protect the environment and contain climate change. He has developed new methods to evaluate the impact of public investment on economic integration and agglomeration economies for the World Bank. As an external member of the Regulatory Scrutiny Board, he has gained in-depth knowledge on the functioning of EU institutions across all areas of EU policies. Andreas was a Postdoc researcher in the Economics Department of the University of California at Berkeley. He did a PhD in economics, studying at the European University Institute (Florence) and the University of Giessen. He was professor for macro- and regional economics at the Technical University of Dresden. Chiara DEL GIOVANE is a Research Assistant at CEPS. Before joining CEPS, she gained good knowledge in the area of international trade, European policies and economic research. She was an intern at the Permanent Mission of the European Union to the WTO, at the Economic Research and Statistics Division of the WTO and at the Permanent Mission of Italy to the WTO. Chiara holds a M.Sc. awarded cum laude in European Economy and Business Law from the University of Rome Tor Vergata (Italy), she studied as an Erasmus student at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Coimbra (Portugal) and she holds a bachelor’s in International Economics from the University of Rome Tor Vergata. Timothy YU-CHEONG YEUNG is a Researcher at CEPS. He is also an Associate Researcher at the Leuven Center for Empirical Jurisprudence of KU Leuven in Belgium. Expert in microeconomics and econometrics with more than four years of post-doctoral research experience, Timothy completed many research projects and published several academic papers in peer-reviewed journals, such as Journal of Comparative Economics and Constitutional Political Economy. His research interests cover law and economics, digital economics and EU institutions. He was invited to act as a member of the scientific committee of a book “Data Science for Economics and Finance: Methodologies and Applications” led and edited by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. Timothy was involved in the setting up of Governance Analytics/Chair of Governance and Regulation of Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University. He led several research projects and organised internal and also external seminars. His main tool of analysis is econometrics. He has extensive experience working with different types of datasets and different estimation methods. He is familiar with NLP (Natural Language Processing) text mining techniques, including topic modelling and word-embeddings. Timothy holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Toulouse School of Economics, a Master’s degree in Economics from The University of Hong Kong. 8
Making the digital transition work for everyone Background As the Von der Leyen Commission approaches its mid-term milestone, the time is ripe to analyse the plethora of new legislative initiatives that have been launched, as well as assess the consistency between them and the emerging EU industrial strategy. New initiatives include, among others: initiatives aimed at reducing the market power of large digital platforms and promoting fairer and more transparent commercial practices in online intermediation and content moderation (e.g. the Digital Services Act, the Digital Markets Act); initiatives aimed at fostering a transition from the free flow of all digital data, towards ‘managed data’, at least in specific industrial sectors or ecosystems, and more generally to ensure a fairer distribution of value along supply chains (e.g. the Data Governance Act, the upcoming Data Act, the GAIA-X project to be scaled up into a fully-fledged European Cloud Federation); measures aimed at ensuring human- and citizen-centric technology adoption and the protection of fundamental rights online (e.g. the AI Act, the EU’s emerging digital principles, the forthcoming review of the GDPR); and industrial policy measures aimed at fostering the EU’s excellence and competitiveness (industry alliances for edge/cloud/IoT, the flagship on Artificial Intelligence and the announced CHIPS Act that aims to promote European semiconductor production). Alongside the discussion on these initiatives, which portray an entirely new approach to the technology stack, it is important to debate whether the EU industrial strategy is taking the changing landscape of digital technologies sufficiently into account, as well as how different approaches to technology deployment can shape the future of industry. We propose to discuss how to incorporate a human-centric, resilient and sustainable vision of technology (in line with the Industry 5.0 paradigm) in industry transition pathways, by choosing a limited number of industrial ecosystems as an example. We would then discuss other possible measures, including both policy and spending measures, that can strengthen the interplay between the digital agenda and the industrial strategy. The overall idea behind our work is that digital technology should be approached as a means, not an end, and that as such, it should be deployed in the best possible way to enable Europe’s recovery and transition towards resilience and sustainability during the course of this decade. 9
Meeting topics 1. Emerging business models for the digital transformation of industrial ecosystems 2. Governance of data spaces: Getting oversight and enforcement mechanisms right for EU’s industrial data 3. The future of work in digitised value chain Relevant contacts Andrea RENDA is Part-Time Professor at the School of Transnational Governance of the European University Institute, in Florence (Italy). He is a Senior Research Fellow and Head of the CEPS unit on Global Governance, Regulation, Innovation and the Digital Economy (GRID). He is also Visiting Professor of Competition Policy and the Digital Economy at the College of Europe in Bruges (Belgium). He was a member of the EU High Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence. He is currently a member of the advisory group on Economic and Societal Impacts of Research (ESIR), for the European Commission, DG Research and Innovation; a member of the European Parliament's STOA international Advisory Board. He is a member of the OECD network of AI experts; and a member of the European Commission’s Expert Group on Smart Specialisation Strategies for Sustainability (S4). Rosanna FANNI is an Affiliate Researcher and Digital Forum Coordinator at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS). Her research assesses the governance of and through digital infrastructures by transnational actors. At CEPS, she co-edited a study assessing the impact of AI on EU fundamental rights and was Rapporteur for the Industrial Policy Taskforce in the Digital & Data Working Group. She was awarded a Fulbright Fellowship to study international cooperation in AI policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. She is also a Doctoral Researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) where she compares the regulation of digital identity systems in the Global South. Rosanna is interested in digital taxation, the use of technology in governance and diplomacy, sustainable computing as well as freedom and security in the digital domain. Clément PERARNAUD is a Researcher in the Global Governance, Regulation, Innovation, Digital Economy (GRID) unit at CEPS. He is also an associate researcher at the new Centre on Digitalisation, Democracy and Innovation (CD2I-VUB) in Brussels, a member of the working group on internet governance of the Center Internet et Société (CIS-CNRS, Paris) and expert curator for the Geneva Internet Platform (GIP, Geneva). Expert in negotiation processes, EU governance and digital policy-making with over eight years of professional experience, he has provided research and advisory services to various research institutions and universities. Clement hold a Ph.D. in political science from University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF). 10
Strategic autonomy in defence Background Differentiation, or what some have called the ‘negative starting point’ of integration, has always been the norm in EU defence policy. Driven by both endogenous and exogenous (f)actors, political leaders in the European Council are nevertheless mindful of the need for Member States to cooperate in more structured ways to better protect their citizens against security threats. To beef up Europe’s ‘strategic autonomy’, a term derived from the realm of defence, a package of harmonising measures has been developed with remarkable speed since 2016. Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) is the most prominent innovation in this field. Given the high levels of politicisation in defence, it is perhaps surprising that PESCO has produced the most inclusive expression of ‘enhanced cooperation’, even if it is the most flexible of the differentiated integration mechanisms provided for by the Treaties. This is largely the result of a German push for inclusivity, which prevailed over a French desire for a higher level of ambition. Monitored by the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the European Defence Agency (EDA), and increasingly driven by the Commission’s Directorate General for Defence Industry and Space (DG DEFIS), which manages the European Defence Fund (EDF), PESCO is supposed to be a force that generates ‘positive integration’ by de-fragmenting the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base; a multi-speed dynamic which will gradually provide the EU with the operational capacities needed to face a dramatically changed international context. This Working Group will build on empirical research by CEPS that maps the varied clusters of Member States and companies lining up behind different types of defence capability development projects (60 in total now). It will identify and analyse the dynamics across the microcosm of PESCO in light of the conditions for participation, the facilitation and oversight offered by EU institutional bodies, and the complementarity with NATO. In each case, policy recommendations will be distilled from desktop analysis, interviews, and discussions in the Working Group. The overarching question for all discussions and papers is whether the overall level of ambition in defence integration needs to be reviewed. The backdrop for the activities of the Working Group will be the threat analysis underpinning the Strategic Compass which is expected to be adopted in March 2022, and the outcomes of the EU Defence Summit which will convene during the French Presidency of the Council. 11
Meeting topics 1. Investment and inclusiveness: Towards a de-fragmentation of the European industrial market 2. Innovation: A forward-looking European defence technological and industrial ecosystem 3. Institutional interaction and integration: EU-NATO relations and political sustainability Relevant contacts Steven BLOCKMANS is Director of Research at CEPS. He is also a Professor of EU External Relations Law and Governance at the University of Amsterdam and editor-in-chief of the European Foreign Affairs Review. He is a frequent commentator on EU affairs for major media outlets and regularly briefs senior policy practitioners from the EU, its Member States and G20 country governments. He is the author of two books on EU relations with its neighbourhood and served as a rapporteur of task forces on European Defence Union (chaired by Javier Solana, 2015), EU Institutional Reform (chaired by Danuta Hübner, 2017) and the European External Action Service (chaired by Pierre Vimont, 2021). Dylan MACCHIARINI CROSSON is a Research Assistant in the EU Foreign Policy unit at CEPS. A young professional working on Common Foreign and Security Policy, the European Defence Union and transatlantic relations, he has carried out research and policy evaluation in both the professional and academic spheres. He has experience in data collection and analysis across EU countries, including conducting semi-structured interviews and carrying out surveys. Dylan holds an MA in European Affairs from Sciences Po (Paris) with a ‘Europe in the World’ specialisation. 12
National resilience and recovery plans and the industrial policy Background As a response to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the lingering effects on the European economy due to the 2008-10 financial crisis, the EU has launched an unprecedented economic recovery programme, NextGenerationEU (NGEU), aiming to tackle several key priorities: a) Economic recovery, from the twin financial and Covid-19 crises b) Resilience, to ensure that the EU and individual Member State economies can withstand changing global conditions through specific actions including: a. Structural reforms b. Environmental sustainability, by building an economy which integrates the externalities of economic actions c. Social sustainability, by integrating social justice c) The green transition, financing these changes to achieve both the climate goals and the ambitions listed above. One of the key innovations to come out of the NGEU programme is the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) which provides grants (EUR 312.5 billion) and loans (up to EUR 360 billion) to Member States upon the submission of a national recovery and resilience plan, which is first assessed by the Commission and then approved by the Council. The funds are borrowed on the financial markets and repayment will occur through the EU’s own resources (for grants) and directly from beneficiary Member States (for the loans). Now that most of the national recovery and resilience plans (NRRPs) have been approved by the Commission and the Council and disbursement has started, political attention is shifting towards implementation. Although a significant share of the funding is earmarked for investment that will directly impact industrial structures, supply chains and future transport and energy infrastructures, the RRF guidelines don’t seem to have given enough formal consideration to the EU’s wider industrial strategy. This Working Group will navigate the fundamental aspects of the recovery plans affecting the industrial sector, it will evaluate how aligned they are to the longer-term objectives of the EU for key industrial sectors, and it will ultimately provide key policy recommendations to both EU and national policymakers. The Working Group will be supported through the framework of the recently launched CEPS RRF monitor (www.rrfmonitor-ceps.eu) initiative. The CEPS researchers responsible are recognised as leading specialists in the governance of the RRF and other EU cohesion, innovation, and financial instruments. 13
Meeting topics 1. Is the European dimension of industrial policy hampered by an atomised approach taken in the national recovery and resilience plans? 2. Are the structural reforms proposed by key Member States through the RRF appropriate to achieve the goals of the EU’s wider industrial strategy? 3. What will the key investments and reforms be? Relevant contacts Jorge NÚÑEZ FERRER is a Senior Research Fellow at CEPS. He specialises in public finance, EU budgetary and financial instruments, and also works intensively on financial and strategic aspects of energy policies, smart cities and circular economy. Jorge has worked as an academic, EU Commission official and consultant for governments, the EU and international institutions. He is the author of numerous studies on the EU budget and financial instruments, as well as on innovation policy and smart cities. He is presently advising the European Court of Auditors and the European Parliament and he trains public officials for the European Institute for Public Administration. He has been an independent external advisor for the European Investment Bank and in 2016 he led the background study on EU resources for the High-Level Group on Own Resources chaired by Mario Monti. Jorge holds a PhD from Imperial College, University of London. Francesco CORTI is Adjunct Professor at the Department of Political and Social Science of the University of Milan and Associate Researcher at CEPS. Expert in European social and employment policies, EU budget, EMU governance, and Social Investment, Francesco provided research and advisory services to various Brussels-based think tanks and EU institutions. Francesco is a main contributor of the CEPS Recovery and Resilience Monitor project. He is also external expert at the European Court of Auditors and Eurofound. Francesco holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Milan. He served as policy advisor to a Member of the European Parliament in the ECON Committee between 2016 and 2019. 14
One-off events Development and cooperation: can the Global Gateway effectively respond to China’s Digital Silk Road? The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the launch of a new programme, the Global Gateway, during her last State of the Union speech, which aims to boost smart, clean and secure links in digital, energy and transport and strengthen health, education and research systems across the world. Seen as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and in particular the Digital Silk Road, the Global Gateway will rely on the ‘Team Europe’ approach and on a mixture of EU financial instruments, aiming to mobilise up to EUR 300 billion in public and private investments between 2021 and 2027. The ambition is to couple infrastructure deployment with democratic values and high standards, good governance and transparency, equal partnerships, green and clean, secure infrastructures that catalyse private sector investment. This one-off event will host a discussion on the current state of play regarding the Global Gateway programme, as well as ways to strengthen its role as an external pillar of the EU’s industrial strategy. Relevant contact: Andrea RENDA, Senior Research Fellow and Head of the GRID Unit, CEPS The EU’s fair trade instruments and the rules-based multilateral trading system: inevitable coexistence for the benefit of EU industry? The EU’s trade policy is aimed at supporting its open strategic autonomy. But what does it concretely mean in terms of the EU’s assertiveness against unfair trade practices? Fair trade is necessary to uphold the EU’s commitment to open and free trade. In this respect, the EU has recently proposed, adopted or upgraded different legal instruments on the screening of foreign direct investment (FDI), export controls, international procurement, anti-coercion, and foreign subsidies. However, this growing EU legal arsenal raises many important questions that are going to be addressed as part of this one-off event. What are its true rationales and what is necessary for open trade? What are the expected benefits for EU industry and the global level playing field? What are the risks for the rules-based multilateral trading system in terms of protectionism and retaliatory actions? Following the war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, an additional one-off event will discuss the related trade sanctions aimed at stopping the war, and their potential impacts on the EU industry and the rules-based multilateral trading system. Relevant contact: Malorie SCHAUS, Research Fellow, CEPS 15
List of topics (March – June 2022) INDUSTRY 5.0 AS A ‘NORTH STAR’ FOR THE INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY • The need to strengthen the social resilience of the Member States for an industrial strategy that works for everyone • The digital transformation: an all-encompassing approach for long-term sustainability • Scaling-up climate neutral materials and green value chains • Sustainable corporate governance through the prism of the European enterprise model STRATEGIC AUTONOMY AND RESILIENCE OF VALUE CHAINS • Current and foreseen challenges for global value chains: Implications for Europe • Partnerships and multilateral cooperation for the resilience of global value chains • Due diligence and sustainability requirements in value chains MAKING THE DIGITAL TRANSITION WORK FOR EVERYONE • Emerging business models for the digital transformation of industrial ecosystems • Governance of data spaces: Getting oversight and enforcement mechanisms right for EU’s industrial data • The future of work in digitised value chain STRATEGIC AUTONOMY IN DEFENCE • Investment and inclusiveness: Towards a de-fragmentation of the European industrial market • Innovation: A forward-looking European defence technological and industrial ecosystem • Institutional interaction and integration: EU-NATO relations and political sustainability NATIONAL RESILIENCE AND RECOVERY PLANS AND THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY • The atomised approach in the national recovery and resilience plans and its consequences for the EU’s overall industrial policy • The adequacy of the proposed structural reforms in key Member States and their compatibility with the EU’s overall industrial strategy • The key investments and reforms needed ONE-OFF EVENTS • Development and cooperation: can the Global Gateway effectively respond to China’s Digital Silk Road? • The EU’s fair trade instruments and the rules-based multilateral trading system: inevitable coexistence for the benefit of EU industry? • Trade sanctions against Russia: impacts on the EU industry and the world economic order 16
Principles and guidelines for the Forum and its Working Groups I – Forum participants The Forum on the New Industrial Strategy for Europe and its five different Working Groups and one-off events represent structured dialogues among industry representatives, policymakers, academics, civil society representatives and other relevant stakeholders. They will discuss core topics relating to the EU’s industrial policy in dedicated meetings, i.e., three closed-door meetings (online or hybrid) for each Working Group each semester, in particular over the period of February 2022 through June 2022 for the first semester, in order to produce policy briefs and a final report with policy recommendations. CEPS adopts a multi-stakeholder approach. Each Working Group is composed of a chair, a rapporteur(s), a possible sponsor(s), Forum members, including observers. The chair is an expert appointed by CEPS to steer the dialogue during meetings and to advise on the general conduct of the Working Group’s activities. The rapporteur(s) is a CEPS researcher or associate who organises the Working Group, conducts the research independently and drafts the policy briefs and the final report, in close cooperation with the chair. The sponsor(s) co-designs the meetings of a Working Group with the chair in terms of topics and expert speakers or presenters. All suggestions are considered by CEPS, but CEPS retains the final say in designing the programme and ensuring the quality of the meetings. In addition, the sponsor has the possibility to comment on the draft of the full report. The Forum members are any individuals, such as academics, policymakers, regulators, representatives of supervisory authorities, company representatives, representatives of trade associations/consumer interest groups/investors’ associations, who participate in the activities of the Forum in a personal capacity. They must have expertise in the topics discussed and provide input to the discussions through presentations and relevant material for the policy briefs and the final report. The observers to the Forum form a group of policymakers, academics, representatives of associations and independent experts, who may attend Forum meetings in an observer capacity, so they will not be required to provide a contribution (unless agreed otherwise). This group will also include speakers invited by CEPS to provide individual contributions to one or more meetings. The lists of Forum members and observers will be featured in the policy briefs, the final report and on the CEPS website. All Forum members attend the meetings in a personal capacity and do not necessarily endorse the recommendations of the policy briefs and the final report. 17
II – Methodology, policy briefs and final report A – Methodology The different Working Group meetings, the policy brief drafting process and the final report are based on the following methodology: EXPLORATION Background notes prepared by CEPS: A background note lays the foundation for the discussion that will take place during the meeting. It contains background information, fundamental aspects and key leading questions regarding the topic(s) discussed. It is submitted to the Forum members prior to the meeting. Contributions by speakers/discussion leaders: Speakers’/discussion leaders’ contributions to the meeting are made available beforehand. Consultations with Forum members: Forum members are invited to submit their input to the meeting in the form of a presentation or other relevant materials at least one week before the meeting. Forum members will have access to all the documents and presentations relating to each Working Group’s meetings. MEETINGS Each meeting is based on CEPS’ background note, contributions by speakers/discussion leaders and input by Forum members. Each meeting starts with short presentations by the speakers/discussion leaders, followed by the targeted presentations by Forum members and other invited experts in the general framework of a structured debate. Based on the preparation by each participant and the different interventions, we expect a lively debate on the topics to be discussed at the meeting. Forum members are expected to steer the research agenda of the Working Group’s meetings and the content of the active discussions. CEPS ensures that discussions during the meeting are balanced and evidence-based. Each meeting will last up to four hours. If necessary, a single meeting may be split into two half-days. CEPS expects Forum members to participate in a minimum of two of the three closed-door Working Group meetings. POLICY BRIEFS CEPS will draft the policy briefs and the Working Group final report in accordance & with the highest standards. The policy briefs and the final report are meant to FINAL REPORT contribute to the policy debate by presenting a balanced set of arguments. It is based on the input made by Forum members during each meeting and CEPS conducts the necessary independent research. Forum members are invited to comment and send their observations on the draft version of the policy briefs and the Working Group final report, including the policy recommendations. Forum members have the possibility to produce written contributions, subject to the rapporteur’s approval and editing. The Working Group’s final report will consist of 20 to 30 pages, including an average of 12 policy recommendations. Each Working Group’s final report will represent one chapter of the overall final report of the Forum for each semester. 18
B – Policy briefs and final report a – Objectives of the policy briefs and final report In addition to contributing to the policy debate by presenting a balanced set of arguments, the policy briefs and the final report seek to provide readers with a constructive basis for discussion. The rapporteur(s) will not seek to advance a single position or misrepresent the complexity of any subject matter. The policy briefs and the final report also fulfil an educational purpose, and it is therefore drafted in a manner that is easy to understand, with technical jargon fully defined and explained where necessary. b – Drafting the main text of the policy briefs and final report In the main text, the rapporteur(s) details the results of the research carried out independently in the framework of the Forum. The policy briefs and the final report will refer to the discussions during the meetings but also to available data and literature. Scientific literature may be cited. Forum members are not expected to endorse any reference to this literature. A general disclaimer is inserted to clarify this. Finally, the conclusions will be clearly presented. c – Use of data The policy brief and the final report features data that are considered both relevant and accurate by the rapporteur(s). The Forum members are encouraged to contribute with any data or propose any source of data that the rapporteur(s) considers as relevant. They may also question either the relevance or accuracy of any given data. After consultation with the chair, the rapporteur(s) may decide either to exclude this data or to mention these concerns in the main body of the text. d – Drafting the conclusion and recommendations The policy briefs and the final report will feature a set of policy recommendations, drawn up by the rapporteur(s), which are meant to reflect the whole Forum’s discussions during the semester. For a recommendation to be featured in the report, enough information needs to have been discussed in the open debates among Forum members. In all cases, the policy briefs and the report will seek to identify the points where there is some sort of common understanding of the issues discussed. Both policy recommendations and the content of the policy briefs and the final report will be summarised at the beginning of each document in the form of an ‘executive summary’. Forum members will be given the opportunity to review their Working Group’s contribution to the policy briefs and the final report and provide their input on each draft version. Nevertheless, the rapporteur(s) will be solely responsible for the content of the policy briefs and the final report. e – Launch of the semester-based final report All Forum members will be invited to the closing semester-based plenary dedicated to the launch of the semester-based final report. 19
CURRENT SPONSORS AND PARTNERS GENERAL CONTACT INFORMATION cepstaskforces@ext.ceps.eu Andrea RENDA Malorie SCHAUS Senior Research Fellow and Head of GRID, Research Fellow, CEPS CEPS Director of the Forum Coordinator of the Forum andrea.renda@ceps.eu malorie.schaus@ceps.eu +32 (0)494 44 33 16 +32 (0)2 229 39 42
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