The Need for U.S.-Australia Leadership to Counter China across the Indo-Pacific - ERIK M. JACOBS
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No. 36 • March 2021
The Need for U.S.-Australia
Leadership to Counter China
across the Indo-Pacific
ERIK M. JACOBS
The Need for U.S.-Australia
Leadership to Counter China
across the Indo-Pacific
Erik M. Jacobs
POLICY Paper 36Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 1
Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 2
Background .............................................................................................................................. 2
Current Standing ....................................................................................................................... 3
The U.S.-Australia Alliance .......................................................................................................... 3
Japan..................................................................................................................................................... 4
India...................................................................................................................................................... 5
Indonesia................................................................................................................................................ 6
Vietnam.................................................................................................................................................. 7
Singapore................................................................................................................................................ 7
New Forms of Cooperation......................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusion............................................................................................................................................... 9
Endnotes .............................................................................................................................................. 10Executive Summary
China’s trade retaliation against Australia, Indian There are opportunities for the U.S. and Australia to
border clashes, maritime harassment of Japan, and enhance cooperation with other potential regional
South China Sea military expansion have opened a partners — Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia —
window into how a Beijing-dominated Indo-Pacific may that are either hedging or approaching the changing
look. Regional governments are right to be concerned Indo-Pacific security dynamics in a more deliberative
about what a future of economic coercion, maritime fashion. However, progress will likely be incremental;
disputes, and contested resource rights and shipping with Japan playing a potentially prominent role. For
lanes may hold. instance:
The U.S. and Australia must leverage their strong • The U.S. and Australia should encourage Japan to
relationship to deepen existing partnerships, build build off its recent defence exports and transfers
nascent strategic ties, and find new ways to cooperate to the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia as a way
in the face of an aggressive China bent on exerting to develop Japan’s nascent defence production
itself across the Indo-Pacific region. The long-term industry while building capacity with these key
importance of these relationships is apparent in U.S. and Australian security partners in the
strategic outlooks coming out of both Washington and Southeast Asian region.
Canberra.
• Cooperation on maritime intelligence, surveillance
The existing U.S.-Australia Alliance should be a key and reconnaissance training would also strengthen
pillar underpinning an Indo-Pacific region free from the capacity of littoral states to defend sovereign
coercion and open to unhindered navigation and territory, with Southeast Asian states participating
overflight, with the reborn Quadrilateral Strategic in future Quad discussions on maritime security as
Dialogue (Quad) serving as another pillar. Prime a way to gradually encourage external balancing.
Minister Scott Morrison heralded the recent Quad
Future cooperation between the U.S., Australia and
leaders’ summit as a “new dawn” in the region. It is
other nations on pressing issues such as supply
now incumbent upon Australia and the U.S. to expand
chain integrity, advanced and emerging technologies,
partnerships to make this happen, starting with Japan.
critical minerals, and vaccines present additional
• Canberra and Washington should deepen ties opportunities to build new relationships with other
with Tokyo to include more defence training countries across the Indo-Pacific as they reconsider
opportunities, and track and share intelligence the national security risks of reliance on China.
on Chinese maritime operations in the East China Increased Australian energy exports to Japan also
Sea where incursions into Japanese waters have present an opportunity for trade diversification and
intensified. growth in the face of Beijing’s campaign of economic
coercion. However, as the Biden administration
• Australia, the U.S. and Japan should conduct more
is unlikely to rejoin the revamped Trans Pacific
intelligence-sharing with India in future Malabar
Partnership, Australia and other regional governments
Exercises, especially on Chinese activities in the
should deepen economic ties.
Indian Ocean and the Malacca Straits, while finding
ways to capitalise on India’s strategic location and
economic importance as Delhi re-evaluates its
approach to Beijing.
1Introduction
Background government’s calls for an international inquiry into the
origins of the COVID-19 coronavirus. Such coercion
Australia and the United States have been strong
could be harbinger of things to come for Australia and
allies for more than a century, fighting alongside
other nations, should China continue to aggressively
each other in every major conflict since World
assert itself across the region.
War I, working together in countless humanitarian
operations, and sharing deep economic and cultural Previous approaches welcoming China’s rise have
values that shape the free and open Indo-Pacific. sown the seeds for the current environment across
Recent developments have underscored the strategic the Indo-Pacific — in which a bullish China is
importance of this relationship for both countries, with comfortable to boldly challenge Australian sovereignty
the rapid economic, technological and military rise by releasing a list of 14 demands as preconditions for
of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Indo- opening up economic negotiations10 to end Beijing’s
Pacific at the top of the list. $50 billion trade offensive. Some opportunities exist
for Australian exporters to find alternative destinations
For decades, American presidents (with the exception
for their products in the face of Chinese tariffs, but
of Donald Trump) have referred to China’s rise as
building new trade networks will take time.
positive for America and the world1 while some of their
Canberra counterparts have gone as far as calling for While the Biden administration has been quick to
a “Pax Pacifica” to create a new order that acquiesces re-join international organisations from which Trump
China’s rise into the pre-existing U.S.-led security withdrew — notably the Paris Agreement on climate
and alliance structure in the region.2 Academics and change and the World Health Organisation — it has
policy leaders have echoed these sentiments, warning yet to act regarding trade agreements and China.
Australians of the economic risks of choosing sides Despite calls from business leaders to remove tariffs
between the U.S. and China as burgeoning trade with on Chinese goods,11 Biden’s early actions to maintain
China pitted deepening economic enmeshment with $350 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods12 as a part of
Beijing against the concerns of the well-established the “phase 1 deal”,13 his campaign statements that he
security and economic partnership between Canberra would not re-enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
and Washington. Through it all, China has played their in its present form,14 and the new administration’s
victim, with some commentators’ fear of “angering claims to support “Buy America”15 policies show that
Beijing” playing directly into the Chinese Communist a sweeping reversal of Trump’s China trade policy
Party (CCP)’s effective campaign of “discourse is unlikely in the short term. Adding to this is scant
control”3 on China-related policy and dialogue for the support from the broader American electorate to re-
past 30 years. join TPP, concerns about how the agreement could
As Australia’s economic ties with China deepened, harm domestic industry, the difficulty of negotiating
it has become Australia’s largest trade partner, and ratifying a deal of this magnitude when both
surpassing trade with the U.S here and for almost progressive and conservative House members are
every other nation in the region.4 China’s military sceptical of TPP, and the political capital required
and technological rise across the Indo-Pacific has to garner support of two-thirds of Senators for
equally advanced, underpinning a newly assertive ratification of the agreement. The Biden administration
and adventuristic regime that has militarised the should hence consider other ways to engage with
South China Sea, used militia fishing fleets to push Australia and other partners in the Indo-Pacific to
its claims, and now boasts the world’s largest navy address the economic and security challenges posed
as a key pillar in its pursuit of having a “world-class by China’s rapid rise.
military by 2049”.5 This paper will assess and address different ways
China’s “peaceful rise” has been anything but. With
6 Canberra can work with Washington as a part of
Beijing’s militarisation of the disputed South China broader coalition to counter Chinese aggression across
Sea,7 threats to shoot down an Australian aircraft the Indo-Pacific. While Beijing has initially backed off
carrying out freedom of navigation exercises,8 and when nations stood up to its bullying in areas such
updates to China’s defence white papers emphasising as in Japan’s Senkaku Islands and various South
the maritime domain,9 narratives around its rise China Sea territorial disputes, China’s provocative
began to shift in 2015. This has become even more measures often continue as time proceeds. It is
pronounced in the wake of China’s botched handling important for Australia, the U.S. and other likeminded
of the coronavirus pandemic and the virus’s spread nations to stand up in a more coordinated way as
to the rest of the world. Beijing has only ratcheted Beijing ratchets up its security and economic pressure
up its economic pressure on other nations, with across the region. With worldwide public opinion
Australian industry squarely in its sights. In keeping shifting against Beijing in the wake of the coronavirus
with its aggressive stance, Beijing has launched an pandemic,16 it is an opportunity for Washington and
all-out trade offensive on the Australian wine, meat, Canberra to cooperate and build new partnerships to
and coal industries, partly in response to the Morrison counter China’s assertiveness.
2Current Standing Beijing can be slow. The U.S.-Australia alliance and
other existing Indo-Pacific security relationships can
Australia has been a first mover in the region on
be a forum to work together with third countries in a
countering CCP influence at home, and although Prime
more coordinated and unified approach.
Minister Scott Morrison’s announcement in 2018 of
an additional $3 billion in spending to counter the
growing PRC presence in the Pacific Islands was made The U.S.-Australia Alliance
under different circumstances,17 it shows Canberra has
The U.S.-Australia Alliance has been one of the
been acutely aware of the threats posed by China’s
strongest security and intelligence relationships in
regional ambitions since well before the coronavirus
the world since the establishment of the Five Eyes
outbreak and current economic attacks on Australian
intelligence-sharing group during World War II and
industry. These attacks continue the recent trend of
the official signing of the Australia, New Zealand and
aggression that began with the freeze of top-level
United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) in 1951. In
meetings in 2018 following Australia’s passage of
nearly 70 years of alliance, the U.S. and Australia
anti-espionage laws18 and Beijing’s protests over
have built an architecture of intelligence-sharing and
Canberra’s decision to exclude Chinese telecom
coordination, military cooperation, and multilateral
companies ZTE and Huawei from its domestic 5G
frameworks across the region with the U.S.-Australia
networks in defence of national security and network
Alliance playing a central role. Both countries have
integrity. Unlike previous rows — in violation of the
also built military and intelligence cooperation and
2015 free trade agreement — China has targeted
coordination protocols and procedures through an
Australian export sectors in hopes of intimidating
array of longstanding training exercises, developing
and coercing Canberra into making policy changes by
defence relations with third countries across the Indo-
undermining support for the Morrison government.
Pacific.
Economic and security tensions have risen
Australia’s 2020 Defence Strategy Update21 and the
between Beijing and Washington on many of the
same issues, including China’s handling of the recently declassified U.S. Strategic Framework for
coronavirus pandemic and Trump’s efforts to correct the Indo-Pacific22 specifically mention U.S.-Australia
decades of Chinese trade malpractice and reduce relations and relationships with other countries such
U.S. dependence on China-based supply chains. as Japan and India as essential for the future of a
Washington has hit Beijing with $350 billion of tariffs free and open Indo-Pacific. Australia will spend A$1bn
on various goods, banned Huawei from its 5G network (US$770 million) on upgraded naval capabilities
development, and made great strides to diversify such as surface-to-air missiles, torpedoes, and land
and secure national security-related, medical and strike capabilities to project power and maintain
telecommunications supply chains. sea control,23 and the U.S. also continues to
modernise its forces. This spending takes place amid
China’s truculent actions have led to an China’s weaponisation of its economic heft and its
unprecedented drop in its international standing. unprecedented military build-up as it seeks to control
According to Pew Research’s 2020 polling,19 81% of the South China Sea while also claiming to have the
Australians held negative views of China, with 45%
world’s largest naval force.24
holding very negative views of China. Some 79%
of respondents also had zero confidence in Chinese The existing U.S.-Australia Alliance framework of
leader Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs. bilateral cooperation and high-level meetings and
These sentiments were echoed in the United States, agreements with other states — such as the Quad
where 73% held a negative view of China and 77% — should serve as an essential component of an
have zero confidence in Chairman Xi. The same can be organised attempt to counter China as it continues
said of Japan (86% and 84% respectively) and South to assert itself across the region in both security and
Korea (75% and 83% respectively).20 These results economic spaces. Morrison heralded the recent Quad’s
suggest popular will exists in many nations to counter leaders’ summit as a “new dawn”25 in the Indo-Pacific,
the threats posed by China, but hastening the speed and it is incumbent upon the U.S. and Australia to
of changes in some countries as they address internal work together to deepen existing partnerships to
political concerns and external balancing vis-à-vis make this happen, starting with Japan.
3Japan
Australian leaders have long hailed the importance of outside the existing Hokkaido ones34 would create
their relationship with the U.S. and Japan, with former further training opportunities, and sending Japanese
prime minister John Howard regarding the American units to Darwin for training exercises with American
alliance as a special national asset and Japan as and Australian troops offers great potential to build
Australia’s best friend in Asia.26 The tradition continues multilateral capabilities and enhance familiarity.
to this day —Morrison was the first foreign leader to On the naval side, continued participation in joint
meet new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga27 exercises and additional port calls would also build
— and working more closely with Japan in conjunction more familiarity and work towards more trilateral
with the U.S. provides the strongest opportunity for interoperability. While some call for Japan to join Five
deeper coordination to counter China’s actions across Eyes, there are various obstacles to such a move that
the Indo-Pacific. make Japan’s formal inclusion unlikely in the short-
term; but sharing maritime intelligence regarding the
The importance of Australia’s relationship with
East China Sea should be considered in this trilateral
Japan is specifically mentioned in the 2020 Defence
setting.
Strategic Update and both countries’ pre-existing
treaty alliances with the U.S. — together with their Japan’s strategic positioning along the East China
longstanding coordination in arenas such as the Sea provides the perfect opportunity for intelligence
Trilateral Strategic Dialogue (TSD) with the U.S. gathering and operational training. As a result, the
— serve as a blueprint for deepening bilateral and U.S. and Australia should work with Japan to use
trilateral ties.28 As the general population in both aerial drones such as the Boeing ScanEagle35 to
Australia and Japan have increasingly negative views build inter-familiarity with each country’s intelligence
of China across demographic groups,29 there may collection processes and approaches. If successful,
be popular support for moving more quickly towards this could be a stepping stone for Japan to engage
deepening defence relations across the region despite more fully with the broader Five Eyes group. In
various bureaucratic barriers. particular, the U.S. should work with Australia and
Japan in its new intelligence-sharing partnerships
Canberra and Tokyo have made great strides towards to monitor People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
creating a separate bilateral security relationship30 vessels, Chinese Coast Guard and other Chinese-
with the 2020 announcement, in principle, of a flagged vessels to better understand how they behave
Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA)31 , much to across the region.36 The International Maritime
China’s chagrin. Japan is no stranger to China’s Organisation database shows 64 registered Chinese
provocative military actions, most notably persistent survey vessels built in or after 1990, surpassing
violations of Japan’s airspace and exclusive economic the United States’ 44 and Japan’s 23,37 so there will
zone (EEZ) in the East China Sea’s Senkaku Islands,32 be many opportunities in this region. Japan has a
so deepening defence ties, coordination, and specific history of standing up to Chinese activities around the
intelligence sharing with Tokyo regarding Chinese Senkaku Islands, and China has stood down38 in past
actions in Japanese waters is a natural conclusion. disputes and encounters involving China Coast Guard
Australia’s decision to re-join the U.S. and India-led vessels. Despite this, Chinese incursions into Japanese
Malabar Exercises, of which Japan is a permanent waters persist and Japan has sought to upgrade its
member, in 2020 for the first time since former prime domestic capabilities to address this threat.
minister Kevin Rudd withdrew in the face of Chinese
Australia and the U.S. should encourage Japan to
pressure in 2008, and the strong relationship between
continue to develop its defence industry export
PM Morrison and PM Suga, show the promise for
capabilities to Southeast Asian nations as a way to
deeper trilateral defence relations between Canberra,
both build capacity with other states in that region
Washington and Tokyo — a welcome development
and to build Japan’s domestic defence production
after Australia’s decision to choose French-made
industry. This would be a welcome development in
submarines ahead of Japanese-made submarines for
the region and would build off Japan’s recent defence
its fleet in 2016.33
exports and transfers to the Philippines, Vietnam and
With an RAA in place, there are many possibilities for Indonesia. These nations are key U.S. and Australian
deeper defence and intelligence cooperation between security partners in the region and represent a great
the three countries. Exchanges of air squadrons opportunity for multilateral cooperation in the longer-
between Australia and Japan for additional exercises term.
4On the economic front, Japanese companies have Coordinating efforts with Japan can also make a
taken some of the strongest measures to increase difference for foreign direct investment in the Indo-
supply chain assurance and production security as Pacific. Australia’s recent pledges of money to support
a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Tokyo has various Pacific states makes this another area of
incentivised Japanese companies to onshore their natural cooperation alongside the U.S. to invest in
manufacturing and production capabilities based friendly nations to counter rising PRC influence in the
in China to secure supply chains, and has paid 87 islands — several states have changed diplomatic
companies as of December 2020 to onshore or recognition to Beijing from Taipei in recent years —
move production to Southeast Asia.39 Japan’s new and ensure a potentially independent Bougainville
ambassador to Australia has said Tokyo would like does not become a Chinese vassal state.
to help Australia alleviate its dependence on China.40
Japan could be a destination for additional Australian The U.S., Australia, and Japan have a robust trilateral
coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), hydrogen,41 and relationship with a long history of cooperation and
wine exports as Chinese trade punishments continue coordination on key security and intelligence issues
and the new Biden administration changes its across the Indo-Pacific in fora such as the TSD, and
approach to energy production. The U.S. and Australia their relationship helps underscore regional stability.
should also work with Japan and other countries, such Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was
as Taiwan, to create more robust and secure supply acutely aware of the importance of building this
chains free of Chinese inputs for critical emerging relationship and famously included India as one of the
technologies and telecommunications networks. four points of Asia’s ‘democratic security diamond’ in
This kind of collaboration would align with a new a 2012 speech.43 Relations with India will also play a
Biden administration executive order on supply chain critical role in countering China across the Indo-Pacific
resiliency.42 in the years to come.
India
The significance of strategic relations with India in relations and has been a point of concern for Delhi
both the U.S. and Australia is evidenced by India’s when considering deeper cooperation with Canberra.45
inclusion in the strategic calculations for both the After rejecting Australian participation in the
Australian Defence Force and the Pentagon. India’s Malabar Exercises in 2017, India allowed Australian
strategic importance will only grow as it continues participation in 2020 — the first time since 2008, and
to modernise and as China increases its investment a major step forward for defence coordination with
activities in the Indian Ocean region as a part of India. Should exercises and drilling continue in future
the One Belt One Road (BRI) program. Fortunately, Malabar Exercises, Australia, the U.S., and Japan
various mechanisms are already in place in the current should work to conduct more intelligence-sharing with
U.S.-led alliance to facilitate deeper relationships with India specifically regarding Chinese activities in the
like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific. Indian Ocean and the economically-critical Straits of
Malacca.
The Malabar Exercises represent the best opportunity
for Australia to work with the U.S. and India to The Quad faced similar challenges to the Malabar
deepen coordination and counter China across the Exercises following Australia’s withdrawal in 2008.
Indian Ocean. First held in 1992 as a bilateral exercise The Trump administration revived the Quad in 2017,
between the U.S. and Indian navies, Australia, and all four countries have met at various levels
Japan, and Singapore joined in 2007 for a large- since; holding ministerial-level meetings in 2019
scale exercise in the Bay of Bengal. These naval drills and 2020 and including South Korea and Vietnam
offered the opportunity to develop practices and in coronavirus-related meetings in 2020. In March
procedures for complex manoeuvres — a necessity 2021, the Quad held its first leaders meeting, showing
for joint force operations. Rudd withdrew Australia the growing importance to the group’s members of
from the Malabar Exercises and the diplomatic- addressing pandemic responses, security issues, and
tracked Quad due to Chinese diplomatic protests in stability in a free and open Indo-Pacific.46 The U.S.
2008.44 This decision dealt a blow to Australia-India and Australia should encourage more participation by
5Southeast Asian states in these meetings as a way to Australian coal industry. Unfortunately for the rest
gradually encourage external security balancing and of the energy sector, increased exports would likely
offer opportunities for inclusion in maritime security be limited to coal; India is not a major destination
and intelligence-related discussions. for Australian LNG exports (Japan receives more
than 90%) and there has been little movement on
Australia should also consider new ways of deepening
exporting uranium to India49 since the initial shipment
economic ties with India as an alternative to reliance
in 2017.50
on the Chinese market, especially with respect to
current trade tensions. Working with India and In the past, India has been unwilling to choose
updating vaccine production facilities in Victoria sides between the U.S. and China, yet recent deadly
to manufacture mRNA vaccines47 would produce Sino-Indian clashes on the Himalayan border may
long-term secure supply chains outside the current represent an important inflection point in relations
system — which relies on supplies from China. India’s and could shift the Indian public’s view on China
growing population also represents a potential market and influence Delhi’s strategic approach. Current
diversification opportunity, especially among the conditions present a strong rationale for Canberra
young urban middle class.48 India is one of the top and Washington to deepen defence and intelligence
destinations for Australian coal exports, which should relations with India while also building off the reborn
be increased if China continues its attacks on the Malabar Exercises and Quad framework.
Indonesia
Indonesia is Australia’s nearest neighbour, the largest its external alignment towards the U.S., and the
democracy in the Muslim world, and should play Indonesian military being a primarily land-based force,
a pivotal role in a U.S. and Australia-led approach may make swift policy changes unlikely. Slower steps
to building Indo-Pacific partnerships to counter in the maritime space could play a role, especially
China. Traditionally, the island nation has taken a given Indonesia’s stance on the Natuna Islands and
strong stance regarding the importance of Asian the increasing number of Chinese maritime incursions
regionalism,51 and the signing of the Joint Declaration in Indonesian waters.
on a Comprehensive Strategic Relationship between
In light of the discovery of Chinese Haiyi underwater
Australia and Indonesia in 201852 shows promise for
drones in Indonesian waters,58 the U.S., in conjunction
deeper ties in this realm despite Indonesia labelling
with the Royal Australian Navy and Coast Guard,
the defence relationship between the two nations as
should move to solidify and deepen intelligence,
“expendable”53 in 2013.
surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) training
Indonesian leadership took one of the highest-profile operations and work together to share intelligence
stands in the region against Chinese aggression when with Indonesia related to Chinese vessel activities
President Joko Widodo hosted a cabinet meeting throughout Indonesian waters. Inviting Indonesian
aboard an Indonesian warship off the South China observers to attend larger exercises in the region is
Sea’s Indonesian-controlled Natuna Islands after one way to deepen ties and would build off recent
Chinese vessels made claims to the islands and U.S. exports of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and
attempted to drill for natural gas there54; and said helicopters to Jakarta for reconnaissance in the South
there was no reason to negotiate with China on fishing China Sea.59 The export of aftermarket Japanese
in Natuna waters.55 Widodo called for strengthening coast guard vessels is another way for Jakarta to
of the military after this event; Australia and the U.S. deepen ties with partners in the region to enhance its
represent natural partners to make this happen. But capabilities to defend territorial sovereignty. Japanese
Indonesia has been reticent to choose sides between
Prime Minister Suga visited Indonesia and Vietnam
U.S. and Chinese interests, with the Indonesian
late 2020, and announced planned meetings of
foreign minister calling tensions between the U.S. and
foreign and defence ministers to accelerate talks on
China “worrying” as recently as September 2020.56
the transfer of defence equipment and technology.60
Australia names Indonesia as a relationship vital Following through on this would be the second export
to regional stability in the 2020 Defence Strategic deal for the Japanese defence-related export industry,
Update and Force Structure Plan,57 which calls for and is a great opportunity to work with Indonesia on
deeper coordination, interoperability, and training in the issue while increasing Japan’s capabilities and
conjunction with the U.S. But various internal political building off its recent sales to the Philippines and
pressures, Indonesia’s reticence to definitively shift Vietnam.61
6Vietnam
Vietnam has a history of confronting China in the U.S. due to Vietnam’s proximity to China, economic
South China Sea, notably in the 2014 crisis where relationship with China, and approach to foreign policy
China eventually withdrew an oil rig placed in relationships. That said, deepening ties with the U.S.
Vietnamese-claimed waters near the Paracel Islands.62 and Australia in the ISR and training categories would
In 2020, Vietnam submitted diplomatic notes to the be a positive step forward for Vietnam as it addresses
UN to protest Chinese actions in the South China Sea. Chinese challenges to its sovereignty and strengthens
Vietnam has deepened defence ties with the U.S. in its bases in the region by ensuring it can strike
recent years, most notably entering a comprehensive Chinese facilities.64 Washington and Canberra should
partnership in 2013,63 acquiring six UAVs from the work with Tokyo to encourage transfers of Japanese
U.S. Department of Defense for $9.7 million in equipment to Hanoi to bolster Vietnamese capabilities,
2019, allowing U.S. carrier visits in 2018 and 2020, find ways to build familiarity and practices, monitor
and participating in the maritime Rim of the Pacific Chinese Coast Guard and naval vessels in the South
Exercise (RIMPAC) as an observer in 2018. These China Sea, and share intelligence as Chinese vessels
and aircraft incur on Vietnamese territory. Vietnam’s
developments presaged Vietnam’s participation in the
purchase of six ScanEagle drones from the U.S.
coronavirus-focused 2020 Quad meeting and the 2018
presents an opportunity for cooperation in the near-
upgrade of the Australia-Vietnam security relationship
term, as does the 2018 agreement signed between
to the strategic partnership level.
Canberra and Hanoi to find ways for deeper economic
Vietnam still lacks some technical capabilities and and security engagement through 2023,65 and the
walks a fine line regarding deepening ties with the export discussions with Japan.
Singapore
Australia has recognised Singapore’s strategic as Talisman Sabre in a way similar to South Korea
importance since its founding in 1965, and was the and India66 or increase cooperation in amphibious
first nation to establish diplomatic relations with the operations such as the Trident Exercises. Increased
island city-state. More recently, the two nations signed maritime intelligence cooperation, ISR collection and
a Joint Declaration of Strategic Partnership in 2015 coordination, and training with Australian forces in the
and an updated defence training agreement in 2020. Straits of Singapore, are other ways to cooperate.
Currently, Singaporean forces have access to train on
However, Singapore has a delicate line to tow
Australian soil in various locations for up to 25 years;
regarding cooperation with the U.S. and Australia
the new agreement represents an opportunity for
vis-à-vis its ties with China. Similar to Indonesia,
Singaporean troops to train with U.S. forces in Darwin
Singaporean leaders have expressed concerns about
and could open the door for broader exercises with
tensions between Beijing and Washington, indicating
U.S. Navy rotational deployments to Singapore.
they have not chosen to externally balance or shift
Building experience and interoperability with troops towards the U.S. or other U.S.-backed partners
already on the ground in Australia is one way to over China — at least in the short term. As a result,
deepen cooperation, but more could be done in this working with the U.S. and Australia in a less formal
space. As a first step, the Singaporean Air Force could way on targeted issues such as maritime surveillance
be invited to participate in Exercise Black Dagger with and intelligence-sharing on various shipping lanes
the U.S. and Australian Air Forces, building off their may be an effective way for Singapore to gradually
2016 observer role. Singaporean forces could also deepen ties with Washington and Canberra in hopes of
observe other U.S.-Australia joint operations such building broader, more enhanced ties.
7New Forms of Cooperation
To build resilience, the U.S. and Australia should Board (FIRB)’s powers in mid-2020, including a $0
coordinate and work with Taiwan to develop secure monetary threshold for state-owned enterprises,
supply chains in the semiconductor and micro- which went into effect in January 2021.72 Japan also
processing space, free of Chinese inputs. The Biden strengthened and revised its foreign investment laws
administration should continue to pursue the Trump in 2020, lowering the threshold of notifying regulators
administration’s “clean networks” approach — of of foreign ownership from 10% to 1% in 558
which Australian carrier Telstra is a member67 — as an designated firms and regulated sectors, and adding
alternative to a China-dominated telecommunications medical devices to a list of national security-related
space. technologies.73
In addition, the U.S. and Australia should work with To the extent possible, while protecting proprietary
Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and other like-minded business information, the U.S., Australia, and Japan
nations to develop standards-setting regimes for should work together and share information about
emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the different types of investments Chinese firms
5G, and the next iteration of telecommunications are making in their high-technology, defence, and
technologies. The Chinese government has stated national security sectors. This could take place under
a goal to have great influence over technology the guise of the critical- and emerging-technology
standards setting by 203568 and has succeeded working group announced as a part of the Quad
in gaining senior leadership roles in international leaders’ meeting joint statement.74 Sharing such
technology institutions such as the International business intelligence could inform the three countries
Telecommunications Union (ITU).69 Preventing China where China may be heading in terms of investing
from achieving its goal of setting global technology in next generation technologies, expose the risks of
standards would be a major strategic setback for intellectual property theft and exfiltration, and raise
Beijing and slow the global adoption and development awareness of potential vulnerabilities in the private
of China-based technologies. sector — especially as it pertains to China’s new
intelligence law.
Another possible area for cooperation and coordination
between the U.S., Australia, and other partners is Enhanced cooperation and review of PLA-affiliated
foreign investment. The U.S. has screened foreign students attending advanced degree programs at U.S.
investments in areas of national security concern and Australian universities may be another way to
since the 1970s through the Committee on Foreign protect advanced research and development projects
Investment in the United States (CFIUS), run by the in both nations. China has threatened to discourage
U.S. Department of Treasury. In September 2020, the students from studying in Australia in a further
Department revised some of its regulations pertaining escalation of its economic punishment,75 while U.S.
to certain critical technology transactions.70 Australia universities continue to have high-profile cases of PLA-
has also strengthened its foreign investment laws in affiliated research arrests in recent months — which
recent years, drawing consternation from Beijing71 should raise concerns about espionage at universities
after strengthening the Foreign Investment Review in both the U.S. and Australia.
8Conclusion
China’s recent actions have opened a window into While Tokyo and Delhi stances have continued to
how a Beijing-dominated Indo-Pacific may look, and move towards the U.S. and Australia as threats
nations are right to be concerned about what a future from China have increased, governments in Jakarta,
of economic recriminations, maritime border disputes, Hanoi, and other states have voiced their concerns
and contested resource rights and shipping lanes may about China’s actions while not fully balancing their
hold. approach to China. There are opportunities for the
U.S. and Australia to build cooperation with these
The confluence of these factors has compelled the
nations, but progress will likely be incremental, with
U.S. and Australia to build upon their decades-long
Japan playing a potentially prominent role.
defence alliance and intelligence partnership to
deepen existing strategic relationships with Japan On the economic and technological side, all countries
and India and find new ways to forge strategic ties in the region should look for opportunities to develop
with nations in the Indo-Pacific to ensure the region new export opportunities to build markets and supply
remains free and open. As a new U.S. Indo-Pacific chains outside Chinese control, especially in the
Command report calls for an increase of $27 billion high technology sector. There is little support at the
of defence spending between 2022 and 2027, there grassroots level for the U.S. to join TPP, so leaders
may be many possibilities to build deeper defence and countries should seek solutions to deepening
ties between Washington and Canberra across economic ties outside a sweeping regional trade bloc.
the region.76 Working together at higher strategic
Neither Washington nor Canberra can allow
levels with trusted partners like Japan and India will
themselves or their partners to become supplicants of
augment the capabilities of the U.S. and Australia to
Beijing, and seamless coordination between the two
counter Chinese aggression in the region, especially
in conjunction with a broader approach in the Indo-
from a security standpoint. At the same time, deeper
Pacific is imperative to counter China’s aggression
coordination may provide opportunities for new export
and ensure peace and stability across the region.
markets for impacted Australian sectors while also
Deepening pre-existing relationships, building nascent
presenting a way to build new supply chains free of
strategic ties, and finding new ways to cooperate, will
critical Chinese inputs.
thus be critical for the future of a free and open Indo-
Pacific.
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