The Monthly Metals Index: Eight MMIs rise as buyers vie for supply, monitor for peaks
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MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 1 of 16 The Monthly Metals Index: Eight MMIs rise as buyers vie for supply, monitor for peaks March 2021
MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 2 of 16
Table of Contents
1. Introduction/Overview/Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs
2. Aluminum MMI - March 2021
3. Copper MMI - March 2021
4. Stainless MMI - March 2021
5. Raw Steels MMI - March 2021
6. Rare Earths MMI - March 2021
7. Automotive MMI - March 2021
8. Construction MMI - March 2021
9. Renewables/GOES MMI - March 2021
10. Global Precious Metals MMI - March 2021
11. A Note on MetalMiner's Price Outlooks and Benchmarking Capability
MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 3 of 16
Introduction and Overview
To help you understand month-to-month metal price trends across industries and within specific metal markets, MetalMiner
issues the Monthly Metals Index (MMI) reports on 10 subindexes:
• Aluminum
• Copper
• Stainless
• Raw Steels
• Rare Earths
• Automotive
• Construction
• Renewables
• Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel
• Global Precious Metals
How MetalMiner Shapes the MMI Reports
Many indexes bear little resemblance to what you actually pay for the range of metals you buy. MetalMiner uses the following
guidelines to ensure index relevance:
1. Each index represents a basket of metals or raw materials (depending on the category, e.g. coking coal, scrap and iron
ore for steel prices) that impact the cost structure for that particular metal market.
2. The inputs reflect the global market for that commodity, with the goal of more accurately representing underlying global
price trends.
3. We’ve added three key industry verticals — Automotive, Construction and Renewables — that impact multiple metal
markets, as metal prices often depend upon the underlying demand for various industries (e.g. steel prices relate to
construction industry activity).
How You Can Use the Monthly MMI
Use this report as an economic indicator, much like the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) or the BLS Producer Price
Index (PPI), for forecasting, predictive analytics and tracking which commodities have the greatest volatility.
MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 4 of 16
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outlook (MMO) report including:
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• Tin
• Copper
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• Nickel
It’s the most accurate forecast in the business, and here’s why: MetalMiner does NOT predict the future.
Instead, MetalMiner analysts constantly monitor metals and influencing markets, interpret movement and issue buying
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as knowing when and how to react.
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MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 5 of 16
Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs
One-Year MMI Trends
Renewables*
MMI Index Value (Jan. 2012 baseline =100)
Automotive
Global Precious Metals
Aluminum
Construction
Raw Steels*
Copper
Stainless Steel
Rare Earths
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. *Renewables and Raw Steels MMIs restated for May to map the underlying markets more effectively.
After eight indexes posted gains last month, this month again saw eight MMI indexes rise.
Only the GOES and Global Precious MMIs backtracked this month.
Steel prices continue to move upward, but the pace of the increases has slowed somewhat.
However, prices remain on a firm upward trajectory. US three-month HRC, for example, rose by
over 17% in February.
In its Q1 guidance released March 12, U.S. Steel touted the steel market's fundamentals in
backing up its bullish view.
"Solid market fundamentals, low steel supply chain inventories, continued consumer-driven
demand, and pent-up infrastructure demand has us increasingly bullish," U.S. Steel President
and CEO David B. Burritt said.
Elsewhere, eyes are on China's latest Five-Year Plan, which could have impacts on the
country's massive aluminum and steel sectors. While any environmentally driven efforts
from Beijing won't take hold overnight, MetalMiner's Stuart Burns explained that the plan's
environmental targets could contribute to a tightening supply market narrative.
Copper, meanwhile, recently reached a nearly 10-year high before pulling back. Copper mine
production slipped in 2020, but GlobalData forecast production to rise by 5.6% this year.
Copper's fundamentals, for now, appear strong, with robust demand and still constrained
supply.
US auto sales have continued to post decent numbers so far this year. Despite inclement
weather around the country in February, LMC Automotive and J.D. Power forecast February
sales would rise by 3.3% year over year (when adjusting for differences in selling days.
However, automakers continue to grapple with a semiconductor shortage, which the Biden
administration identified as a critical challenge in the recent executive order on supply chains.
— Lisa Reisman, Executive Editor, MetalMiner
MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 6 of 16
Monthly Aluminum MMI Rises 6.3%
Aluminum
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 6.3%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) picked up 6.3% for this month’s reading, as the
Lower Your China aluminum sector could get a price boost from the 14th Five-Year Plan. Furthermore,
Aluminum Spend the Department of Commerce made anti-dumping and countervailing duty determinations on
aluminum sheet.
China’s 14th Five-Year Plan
By virtue of its having the largest aluminum and steel sectors in the world, China also faces a
massive pollution problem.
Particularly given coal’s ongoing prevalence in the country, pollution is a problem Beijing is
Know When to Buy seeking to solve.
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While some might question if the latest five-year plan goes far enough on climate, it is, at
least, a step in the right direction.
As MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns explained vis-a-vis steel, the impact of the plan will be similar
for aluminum.
In short, it could mean a tightening of supply and potentially rising prices in the medium term.
“The environmental targets are part of the new Five Year Plan and, as such, will evolve over
the coming years rather than be applied over coming months,” Burns noted regarding the
plan’s impact on aluminum.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Aluminum MMI collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a unique
view into aluminum price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Aluminum
MMI, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at:
info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 7 of 16
Monthly Copper MMI Gains 12.6%
Copper
Jan 2012 Baseline = 100
MMI
February to
March
Up 12.6%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) picked up by 12.6% for this month’s reading, as the
copper price surged to a 10-year high last month.
Copper price rise
The copper price picked back up in February after China’s Lunar New Year celebration (a
traditionally slower time of year for economic activity in the country).
The LME three-month price surged to $9,563 per metric ton, reaching an approximately 10-year
high.
Since then, however, the price has pulled back. The three-month price closed Thursday at
$9,048 per metric ton.
“This is a classic overbought market in which traders sought to take some profits,” MetalMiner
CEO Lisa Reisman explains. “With the exception of tin, all of the non-ferrous metals traded
down. And though nickel looks weaker (as does lead), most of the non-ferrous metals remain in
their uptrend, as does the ferrous metals complex.”
Earlier today, MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns touched on the trajectory of oil prices. As readers of
our Annual Outlook — for which we released our March update earlier this week — know, oil
prices are a key economic factor MetalMiner considers when analyzing commodities markets.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Copper MMI collects and weights 12 global copper metal price points to provide a unique
view into copper price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Copper MMI,
how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at)
agmetalminer (dot) com.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 8 of 16
Monthly Stainless MMI Moves Up 4.3%
Stainless
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 4.3%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Stainless Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 4.3% for this month’s reading, as news of
Lower Your a supply deal by China’s Tsingshan Holding Group helped push the nickel price downward.
Stainless Spend Nickel price falls on Tsingshan supply deal news
The nickel price, like most other base metals, surged through the first two-thirds of February.
The LME nickel price reached as high as $19,722 per metric ton as of Feb. 21.
From there, however, the price dropped, particularly after news of supply deals by China’s
Tsingshan Holding Group.
Tsingshan will provide a total of 100,000 metric tons of nickel matte to Huayou Cobalt and
Know When to Buy CNGR Advanced Material, Reuters reported.
GET YOUR REPORT “Nickel’s narrative has largely been predicated on a shortage of battery-grade metal driven by
EV demand,” MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns explained earlier this month.
“However, Tsingshan’s supply contract and capacity announcements suggest there will be
sufficient supply. As a result, the nickel market reflected a sharp rethink of the deficit view.
“Demand undoubtedly remains robust for nickel. Its medium- to longer-term outlook remains
positive on the back of stainless and battery demand.”
A price drop at some point was expected. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Stainless MMI collects and weights 12 global stainless and nickel price points to provide
a unique view into stainless price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the
Stainless MMI, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a
note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 9 of 16
Monthly Raw Steels MMI Gains 2.0%
Raw Steels
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 2.0%
Index Value
Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndX.
The Raw Steels Monthly Metals Index (MMI) ticked up 2.0% for this month’s index reading,
as the pace of steel price rises has started to slow.
Steel price gains appear to slow
Steel price rises have continued, much to the chagrin of buyers battling for hard-to-get supply.
However, the pace of the price gains has started to slow.
“The percentage of increase week over week seems to be getting smaller,” said Don Hauser,
MetalMiner vice president of business solutions. “This may be a sign the peak is near. Short
term, it is likely going to continue to rise, just at a slower pace. Steel prices may remain
supported unless/until new production capacity comes back onstream, and some will get added
this year.”
Overall, it’s a difficult time for buyers.
“Unforecasted material is still nearly impossible to find unless it’s by chance,” Hauser added.
“Even forecasted material can be difficult to receive on time.”
Capacity utilization hits 77.4%
Speaking of supply and the steel price, steel capacity utilization reached 77.4% for the week
ending March 6, the American Iron and Steel Institute reported.
The US steel sector churned out 1.76 million net tons of steel during the week, up 0.3% from
the previous week but down 0.3% year over year. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Raw Steels MMI collects and weights 13 global steel and raw material price points to
provide a unique view into global steel price trends over a 30-day period. For more information
on the Raw Steels MMI, please drop us a note at: info@agmetalminer.com.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 10 of 16
Monthly Rare Earths MMI Surges 10.6%
Rare Earths
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 10.6%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Rare Earths Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 10.6% for this month’s reading.
Lynas Rare Earths reports half-year results
Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., the largest rare earths firm outside of China, recently
reported its half-year results.
For the half-year ending Dec. 31, 2020, Lynas reported net profit of $40.6 million. That
compared with net profit of $3.9 million in the same six-month period in 2019.
Furthermore, it reported EBITDA of $80.6 million during the second half of 2020, up from $44.2
million during the equivalent period the previous year.
“This half year demonstrated our ability to achieve strong results across all key financial
metrics, while running production at 75% of Lynas NEXT rates,” Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze
said. “Despite ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and logistics/supply chain systems
due to the effects of the pandemic, Rare Earths market settings were favourable and pricing
for Rare Earths materials improved. We demonstrated our ability to capitalise on this upside
during the period, with cost of sales maintained at $150.8m while achieving an increase in sales
revenue to A$202.5 million.”
The half-year report also offered updates on several projects.
“Progress on Lynas 2025 projects continued,” the financial report stated. “A number of project
milestones were achieved and critical path items secured for the Kalgoorlie facility during the
period."
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Rare Earths MMI collects and weights 14 global rare earth metal price points to provide a
unique view into rare earth metal price trends over a 30-day period.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 11 of 16
Monthly Automotive MMI Moves Up 7.1%
Automotive
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 7.1%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Automotive Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 7.1% this month, as US auto sales
were strong in February.
US auto sales
Ford Motor Co. reported its February US retail auto sales reached 163,520 vehicles, down
1.8% year over year.
Ford truck sales increased 10.2% year over year. Meanwhile, SUV sales ticked up 0.2%. Ford
car sales fell 56.5%.
Ford’s estimated retail share in February reached 12%, up from 11.7% last year.
“Share gains came from trucks and new product offerings of Bronco Sport and the fully electric
Mustang Mach-E,” Ford said.
Honda sales overall fell 11.4% to 106,328 vehicles. However, the automaker reported its best-
ever February for Honda truck sales. Truck sales rose 5% year over year.
Electric vehicles (EVs) still represent a small percentage of Honda’s total sales. Nonetheless,
the automaker reported EV sales rose 96.2%, with deliveries nearing 8,000 vehicles.
Nissan, which moved to quarterly reporting last year, in January reported Q4 2020 sales in the
US fell 19.3% year over year.
US auto sales growth in February
Late last month, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive forecast sales growth in February.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Automotive MMI collects and weights 7 metal price points used in automotive production to
provide a unique view into automotive metal trends over a 30-day period.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 12 of 16
Monthly Construction MMI Rises 3.2%
Construction
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 3.2%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Construction Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 3.2% this month, as January 2021
construction spending picked up.
Construction spending
US construction spending in January reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,521.5
billion, the Census Bureau reported this week.
The January rate marked an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. Furthermore, the
January rate rose 5.8% compared with January 2020.
Private construction rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,160.0 billion.
Within private construction, residential construction rose 2.5% to $713.0 billion in January.
Nonresidential construction ticked up by 0.4% to $447.0 billion.
Meanwhile, US public construction spending rose 1.7% to $361.5 billion. Educational
construction dipped 0.1% to $89.9 billion. Highway construction rose 5.8% to $107.8 billion.
ABI moves up but remains low
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), released monthly by the American Institute of Architects,
reached a January reading of 44.9.
The January reading marked an increase from 42.3 the previous month. However, any reading
less than 50 indicates a contraction in billings.
Meanwhile, the design contracts index moved up from 47.0 to 48.8.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Construction MMI collects and weights 9 metal price points used within the construction
industry to provide a unique view into construction industry price trends over a 30-day period.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 13 of 16
Monthly Renewables MMI Picks Up 4.2%
Renewables
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
MMI
February to
March
Up 4.2%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com *Index had been recalibrated in May 2017 to better account for cobalt price fluctuations
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Renewables Monthly Metals Index (MMI) picked up 4.2% for this month’s MMI reading,
as Rio Tinto announced plans to build a new tellurium plant and cobalt prices are surging.
(Editor’s note: This report also includes the MMI for grain-oriented electrical steel, or GOES.)
Rio Tinto to build tellurium plant
Miner Rio Tinto recently announced plans to build a tellurium plant at its Kennecott mine in
Utah.
Tellurium is used in solar panels in the form of cadmium telluride, a semiconductor.
“With abundant natural resources, Utah is ideally positioned to help supply the critical minerals
essential to maintain American manufacturing competitiveness,” Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said
in a prepared statement. “Rio Tinto’s smelter at Kennecott is one of only two that is capable
of producing copper and other critical minerals. The new tellurium plant is another valuable
contribution to critical mineral independence and energy security in the U.S.”
Rio Tinto plans to invest $2.9 million to set up the plant.
“The minerals and metals we produce are essential to accelerate the transition to renewable
energy,” Rio Tinto Kennecott Managing Director Gaby Poirier said.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE (INCLUDING GOES ANALYSIS), MORE CHARTS
AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Renewables MMI collects and weights 8 metal price points over a 30-day period.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 14 of 16
Monthly Global Precious MMI Falls 0.7%
Global Precious
Jan 2012 Baseline =100
Metals MMI
February to
March
Down 0.7%
Index Value
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) dipped 0.7% for this month’s index value,
as gold prices have continued to slide.
Lower Your
Price Risk Gold price dips below $1,700/oz
Amid economic uncertainty and turbulence, many turn to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
However, the gold price has been on the decline since August.
The gold price reached an August peak of $2,035 per ounce. The price fell below $1,800
around Thanksgiving before recovering to around $1,950 at the start of the year.
Since then, gold has come back down, falling to $1,698 per ounce on Monday.
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US dollar regains some strength; treasury yields gain
The US dollar and the gold price are generally inversely correlated.
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As such, the US dollar has shown some strength of late.
The dollar index reached 92.30 on Monday and is up 2.64% in the year to date.
In other indicators of strength, the 30-year treasury yield reached 2.31% on Monday, up from
1.66% to start the year. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield reached 1.59% on Monday, up from
0.93% to start the year.
Meanwhile, as we’ve noted previously, other factors potentially weighing on gold include
adoption of cryptocurrency by some investors. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Global Precious Metals MMI® collects and weights 14 global precious metal price points to
provide a unique view into precious metal price trends over a 30-day period.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 15 of 16
Compare Your Quotes to the Market
BASIC ANALYSIS RESULTS
MATERIAL: 304 2B Coil/0.038-0.060 mm
PRICE: $1.43 on 01/01/2018 equates to a normalized price
of $1.57 on 08/29/2018
MATCHING: 896 % PAYING MORE: 45.41%
UNIQUE BUYERS: 747 % PAYING SAME: 12.34%
% PAYING LESS: 42.25% MEDIAN: $1.57/lb
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MetalMiner is North America’s largest metals information site. This go-to resource for metal-buying
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operated under management company Azul Partners Inc.MMI | © MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. 16 of 16
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