THE MARKET FOR UAV TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES - 2020-2024 BY PHILIP BUTTERWORTH-HAYES AND TIM MAHON EDITION 3.01 MARCH 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
SAMPLE THE MARKET FOR UAV TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES 2020-2024 BY PHILIP BUTTERWORTH-HAYES AND TIM MAHON EDITION 3.01 MARCH 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
Contents – V3.01 Executive summary 4 Introduction to the report 6 1. UTM – Different approaches to defining the concept 12 1.1 The elements that make up a UTM system 12 1.2 The US vision: NASA’s UTM 17 1.3 The European Union vision – U-space 26 1.4 China’s UOMS concept 42 1.5 Japan’s Aerial Industrial Revolution 44 1.6 Nanjing Technical University’s UTM concept 46 1.7 ONERA’s Low Level RPAS Traffic Management system (LLRTM) 47 1.8 Technology provider and other UTM concepts 48 1.9 A6 Alliance 52 2. A growing demand for services 55 2.1 Overview of high-level forecasts for commercial drone operator 55 services by sector, value, geography and platform numbers 3. A country-by-country and regional guide to programmes creating 67 the procedures and protocols required for UTM Introduction 67 3.1 Africa 67 3.2 Australasia 73 3.3 Europe 76 3.4 Far East 114 3.5 Latin America and the Caribbean 132 3.6 Middle East 135 3.7 North America 138 4. The role of regulators, certification and standards agencies – likely 164 scenarios for developing the regulatory framework for UTM 4.1 The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 164 4.2 European agencies 169 4.3 National regulatory bodies, drone councils and JARUS 182 4.4 Standards organisations 188 4.5 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) 199 4.6 Industry trade associations 200 5. Financing UTM 204 5.1 Different approaches to financing UTM systems 204 The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
6. Current and emerging technologies 218 6.1 Drone registration 220 6.2 Geo-fencing 224 6.3 Surveillance, tracking and identification 230 6.4 Sense-and-avoid 246 6.5 Communications 255 6.6 Block chain 264 6.7 Parachute systems 267 6.8 Integrated counter-UAS systems 269 7. Market forecasts for growth in the global UTM market – by value, 279 geographic demand and sector 7.1 How UTM services are currently being implemented worldwide 279 7.2 The developing role of UTM service providers 283 7.3 Air navigation service providers and UTM business opportunities 294 7.4 UTM market forecasts by value, geographic demand and sector 297 8. The Urban Air Mobility UTM market 300 8.1 Introduction to the UAM market 300 8.2 Governmental and inter-governmental urban air transport research and collaborative programmes 322 Appendices Appendix one: July 2019 EASA draft U-space regulations 329 Appendix two: An index of UTM service providers 347 Appendix three: Drones Amsterdam Declaration 365 Appendix four: The EU standards roadmap for commercial drone Operations 368 Appendix five: ANSI Standardisation Roadmap 371 “The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024” is written by Philip Butterworth- Hayes and Tim Mahon and published by Unmanned Publications Ltd, located at 61 Davigdor Road, Hove BN31RA, UK. Telephone +44 1273 724 238. Email: philip@unmannedairspace.info. Additional material is supplied by Tim Mahon. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Infringements of the above right will be liable to prosecution under UK criminal law. While every care has been taken in the compilation of this report to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication (March 2020), the publisher cannot be held responsible for any error or omission or any loss arising therefrom. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
Introduction to the report
At the start of March 2020, the global UTM industry faces several emerging
challenges.
Among the key challenges are:
• Complex draft regulatory proposals in the European Union (EU) and USA,
which threaten to stifle competition and pose serious question marks to long
term business plans
• The need to form relationships with telecom service providers which will lead
to the exploitation of 5G capabilities and the development of new services
but reduce possible revenue streams
• Delays to the timetable for UTM development by States and ANSPs
• Continuing uncertainties over the technical capabilities of core UTM
technologies, as highlighted in research programmes on both sides of the
Atlantic.
• Continuing uncertainties over clear revenue streams for start-up UTM service
providers.
• Continuing uncertainties over national security agency requirements for
rogue drone detection to be integrated within UTM services.
• Integrating low level UTM networks within ANSP digital airspace management
systems from 0ft to near-space, including addressing issues of managing
drone flights into flight levels of 60,000ft and higher
At the same time, considerable progress has been in moving UTM from a research
concept to an operational system, especially in countries such as Poland, Belgium,
Monaco and Haiti.
Twenty-two countries around the world have signed contracts UTM service providers
to introduce elements of a national UTM system and as the momentum of urban air
mobility (UAM) continues to build it seems likely that this new, urban UTM sector will
eventually become the most profitable sector of the entire UTM market – but not
until 2030.
While the momentum behind the establishment these system – whether on a city,
local, national, regional or global basis – is being generated largely by commercial
drone operators whose business plans rely on the establishment of such a system to
cut package delivery costs, by up to 40% in some instances, there is also recognition
that a fatal accident involving a drone and member(s) of the public would have
severe consequences for the timescale and regulatory input into the creation of
UTM systems worldwide.
There has been a culture clash between commercial drone operator pioneers
whose entrepreneurial business instincts have been at odds with the conservative,
safety-first priorities of government aviation-safety regulators. Within most UTM
concepts drone operators are given a much wider role in ensuring the safe
separation of their platforms from other UAS or obstacles than aircraft operators are
in the ATM world. The pioneers of drone delivery services (in Iceland, Canada,
Australia and the USA) have developed their operations with UTM as integrated
service, rather than a stand-alone function operated by a third party and regulated
by a federated regulator. Operations are of course regulated but through the
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.infoSection two: A growing demand for services
2.1 Overview of high-level forecasts for commercial drone operator services,
by sector, value, geography and platform numbers
Professional aerospace market forecast companies are still showing wide variations
in the predications for the civil UAS market over the next few years – from 12%
compound annual growth rates to over 40%.
According to DroneDeploy’s February 2020 state of industry survey, drones “are
poised for rapid scale and growth in 2020 and the decade ahead”. Drone Deploy
surveyed 140 customers across 10+ industries to find out how they use drones and
the benefits they provide.
According to the survey, “90% of respondents expect to increase or maintain their
spend on drones and drone software in 2020. Over half (53%) expect to increase
and 37% expect to spend the same amount. Almost a quarter (23.3%) of
respondents expect that spend to grow by more than 50%. Only 5% thought it would
decline.
When it comes to applications: “Protection against risks of all kinds drives 69% of use
cases, including increased safety (29%), risk management (21%), and compliance
(19%). Nearly two-thirds of respondents said that they use drones to “improve
operations” and “increase productivity”. The top three motivators for investing in
drones were desires for increased productivity (68%), improved operations
(66%), and reduced cost(56%).
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.infoCustomers of DroneDeploy noted the top three benefits were innovation (59%), increased efficiency/speed (57%), and cost-effectiveness (50%). Benefits following closely behind were competitive advantage (44%), improved customer relationships (35%), and safety (25%). DroneDeploy also noted the survey shows the “businesses do not adopt new technology as rapidly as consumers. Companies take deliberate steps to ensure technology is secure, that it will bring quantifiable ROI, and that it will be adopted easily by employees. But consumers aren’t the main opportunity for drone businesses: the CNBC piece reports that the consumer sector will make up just 17% of the drone market in 2020. Rather, the untapped potential for drones lies beyond hardware, hype, and the consumer sector. Businesses, more than ever, are finding value in drone software and in the data generated by the software.” DroneDeploy conducted the survey in December 2019 via an online survey form to its active customers from a sample of over 145 companies across 10+ industries in English. Respondents are paying members of DroneDeploy’s leading drone data platform. In 2020, worldwide shipments of Internet of Things (IoT) enterprise drones will total 526,000 units, an increase of 50% from 2019, according to market forecaster Gartner, Inc. Global shipments are forecast to reach 1.3 million units by 2023. Enterprise drone shipments “The construction sector is an early adopter of drones, which causes construction monitoring to be the largest use case by shipments worldwide across the forecast,” said Kay Sharpington, principal analyst at Gartner. “Shipments are estimated to reach 210,000 drones in 2020, and more than double by 2023. Drones are taking The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
Section three - A country-by-country and regional guide to programmes creating the procedures and protocols required for UTM 3.1 Australasia The Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) has delayed its proposed drone registration system until mid-2020 in order to allow for industry consultation on fees. Legislation was passed in July 2019 to introduce mandatory drone registration and accreditation requirements in Australia, with consultation on fees due to start in late 2019. The changes introduce new requirements for businesses and recreational flyers and will introduce a cost to register a drone, so CASA said it would consult on the proposed fees ahead of the scheme’s introduction. To provide industry and households with adequate time to participate in the consultation of the fees, the scheme is now expected to commence in phases from mid-2020. The rules will require all drone flyers to gain an accreditation – that is, watch an online video and successfully answer a short quiz to demonstrate they understand the drone safety rules – or hold a remote pilot licence. A statement by the Australian Association for Unmanned Systems (AAUS) said the association fully supports the introduction of registration and accreditation but added the cost needs to be fair and proportionate. It is proposed that people will need to be 16 years or older to register a drone, with younger people to be supervised by a person over 18 years old who is accredited. The online process of drone registration and accreditation is estimated to take about 15 minutes for most people to complete. In April 2019 CASA introduced technical requirements for Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA). The new rules are contained in the Part 101 (Unmanned Aircraft and Rockets) Manual of Standards (MOS) 2019. Primarily they effect commercial and professional RPA pilots and operators, however, most of these rules will not come into effect for another 12 months. This is to ensure industry is ready, particularly RPA training organisations. CASA is currently developing guidance material to help with the transition, including advisory circulars and templates. Importantly, two rules have taken effect immediately. The first is the introduction of specific requirements for the on-going approval of extended visual line of sight (EVLOS) operations; the second is the requirement for a buffer between any RPA and any controlled airspace above it. The other rules due to commence in 12 months include training and competency standards for remote pilot licences (RePL) and standing approvals for certain kinds of operations near aerodromes. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
Meanwhile, Thales and Telstra, an Australian mobile network provider, have agreed to partner on low altitude airspace management systems for manned and unmanned vehicles, such as helicopters, drones and autonomous flying taxis. “The ambition is to create a robust digital communications network infrastructure using Telstra’s expertise, to underpin the navigation and surveillance ecosystem needed to safely manage low altitude airspace,” according to a company press release. “Thales and Telstra’s prototype air traffic control platform, called Low Altitude Airspace Management (LAAM) is capable of integrating manned and unmanned traffic, and will include automated drone flight approvals and dynamic airspace management. This collaboration will foster the development and growth of new products, services and innovations. The two companies are currently working on a prototype system. In October 2017 Google parent company Alphabet’s Wing began trialling merchant deliveries in Australia. Following the launch in April 2019 of the first Australian commercial drone delivery service, Wing announced plans on 31 July 2019 to expand operations into one of the fastest growing communities in Australia, the Queensland city of Logan. CASA Corporate Communications Manager, Peter Gibson said that for each new location a drone delivery operator wants to service they need to apply to CASA for approvals. In the case of Wing, who already have approvals for Canberra, he said it will not be a new approval but a variation to the existing one. CASA has a set of regulations in place for commercial drone operations but what is most likely needed for drone delivery are certain exemptions from these rules, such as “the ability to fly within 30 metres of a person”. In New Zealand the national air navigation service provider Airways New Zealand has set up a commercial company AirShare to manage UTM operations throughout the country. The UTM system has been fully integrated into the country’s ATM system since 2015. More recently, AirShare entered into an agreement with Dubai’s Exponent to provide a new generation of UTM technology and has expanded its service to include visual line of sight (VLOS) flight authorisations and tracking in both controlled (around airports) and uncontrolled (everywhere else) airspace. Drone operators can plan and log flights with AirShare anywhere in New Zealand to determine where they can legally fly, apply and receive flight approvals, and get awareness about other airspace users. This includes information on landowner approvals – in New Zealand, drone operators may often need to understand the approvals process for flying drones beneath 400ft over some areas of the country where local authorities, national parks, conservation organisations and others have authority for low level airspace. The company has developed Android and iOS mobile apps to access the UTM system, on a free basis – though the company plans to introduce charges for some of its services from 2020. The UTM system is integrated with the Leidos ATM system, enabling approved flights into controlled airspace to be incorporated into the ATCs dashboard as an electronic flight strip. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
In February 2020 AirShare released an updated version of the AirShare app which is available for download to help drone users to fly safely in New Zealand. AirShare 2.0 is designed for easier flight planning and provides quick access to airspace and landowner advisories. Other features include wind and weather information, live location broadcast to other drone users in the vicinity, and historical flight data. According to the company, only 30 minutes notice is required to receive automatic provisional authorisations in most of controlled airspace. This includes areas more than 4km from the controlled aerodrome for flights up to 400 ft, and up to 200ft in areas within 4km of an aerodrome if you are not operating on an aircraft approach path or an area where air traffic is commonly routed. Users can log onto AirShare to see where they can fly, file a flight plan and more easily gain approvals. The app provides proximity and surveillance data that creates better situational awareness. Automated text alerts are sent for boundary infringements. AirShare is one of the building blocks that will support safe UAV management for New Zealand. Airways is also looking to systems that will ensure aerodrome safety and a trial of drone detection technologies at Auckland Airport is ongoing. Meanwhile in February 2020 the New Zealand Government announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding with urban air mobility company Wisk (https://www.urbanairmobilitynews.com/air-taxis/boeing-and-kittyhawk-launch-wisk- company-to-develop-the-cora-air-taxi/) to support a transport trial of the company’s Cora air taxi in Canterbury, according to Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. This is reported to be the world’s first autonomous air taxi/airspace integration trial. The specific details regarding the trial parameters, timeframes, and the proposed routes are currently being developed in collaboration with local partners. In October 2018 UNICEF reported that the Vanuatu Government awarded two international drone companies, Swoop Aero and Wingcopter, with commercial contracts to trial the use of drones to bring lifesaving vaccines to children living in remote rural islands. Two contracts were awarded to Swoop Aero Pty Ltd of Melbourne, which will cover vaccine delivery to health facilities on Epi and the Shepherd Islands as well as Erromango Island. Wingcopter Holding GmbH & Co. KG of Darmstadt, Germany, was awarded the third contract to deliver vaccines to facilities on Pentecost Island. The first phase of the drone trials took place during the week of 3-7 December 2018 when these two drone companies tested the viability of delivering vaccines to inaccessible areas. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
5.0 Financing UTM 5.1 Different approaches to financing UTM systems The December 2019 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) from the FAA setting out potential charging mechanisms for UTM service suppliers for remote drone ID services has underlined the principle that tactical UTM service providers will have to rely on “added extras” rather than “core services” covered by user fees for much of the future revenue sources. The FAA assumes each entity operating a UAS would be required to subscribe to a Remote ID USS at an average rate of USD2.50 per month or US30 per year. If these costs were applied to the current fleet of drones this would have generated USD241.72 million – or around USD28.34 million a year. Given that the FAA expects there to be nine UTM service suppliers (USS) qualified as FAA partners in the first year of operations this suggests subscription costs will be able to finance only a small portion of the remote ID service being offered by USSs. The number of new and renewed Remote ID USS subscriptions is approximately USD3.1 million for part 107 operators and USD5.7 million for recreational flyers. The potential commercial operator market in the USA is around 116,000 entities (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-drones/u-s-agency-requires-drones-to-list-id- number-on-exterior-idUSKCN1Q12O9) who will provide the main clientele for UTM services. According to December 2019 FAA figures there are 1,509,617 drones registered in the USA, 420,340 commercial drones registered, 1,085,392 recreational drones registered and 160,748 remote pilots certified. While USS companies will already have established relationships with this community how will they define their own unique selling points over their competitors? As the FAA will not provide payment for the development or operation of Remote ID USS products or services it anticipates that “the Remote ID USS would recoup the costs of providing services either through the sale of subscriptions for remote identification services, online advertising, or “value added” services that can be purchased from the service provider.” But which added value services and would these be produced by the USS or in partnerships? Unless they have already done so, UTM service providers will need to build scalable strategic partnerships with internet service providers and mobile phone companies in ways that everyone can make money The proposed rule would require persons operating UAS with remote identification to transmit the remote identification message elements to a Remote ID USS over the internet. For most USS this is not a technical problem. But it becomes a business issue as the FAA appears to require UTM to be based on increasing numbers of scalable, certified telecommunications services (“The FAA anticipates that in the future, third parties may develop mobile phone applications for law enforcement use…the FAA anticipates that some UAS manufacturers will also be Remote ID USS. In those cases, The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
6.4 Sense-and-avoid (SAA)
Compared to the issues of tracking/identification and communications, developing
appropriate sense-and-avoid technologies appears a relatively easy task. First, there
is a plethora of commercial sense-and-avoid systems for drones now entering the
market. Second, there are fewer major industry v regulator issues impacting this
sector than there in other sub-sectors – either the technology will work after it has
been assessed, or it will not.
The NASA/FAA research team subgroup working on:
• Effectiveness of operational coordination through sharing intent information in
combination and in contrast to active avoidance, and through SAA
capabilities;
• Considering relative performance of both navigation and SAA capabilities;
• Analysing the trade-space between sensing and detection capability of UA
versus the UA’s capability to manoeuvre;
• Evaluating technology options for sharing positioning information in use cases.
Potential considerations for radio frequency and network capacity,
interoperability, density of operations, priority of positioning information on
technology, reliability, etc. Exploring industry-wide solutions sets for near-term
and longer-term operations;
• Exploring options for reporting on issues pertaining to SAA. Document best
practices for operators and capture any recommendations for regulator
macro-collection efforts, and
• Evaluating operational corrective processes. With consideration for SAA,
investigate data collection processes that could be used to take lessons
learned to reinforce operational compliance. Potential considerations for
data exchange between operator and UA manufacturer.
Flight Test Series 6 (FT6), at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center in California is
part of its work to assist the FAA develop regulations to allow the integration of UAS
into the National Airspace System (NAS).
The UAS Integration in the NAS project is managing the three-monthlong flight tests
that are scheduled between September and November 2019.
According to NASA, FT6 will focus on low size weight and power (SWaP) sensors for
Detect and Avoid (DAA) operations in controlled airspace to inform the FAA through
the RTCA Special Committee DAA Working Group on the phase 2 minimum
operational performance standards for DAA and air-to-air radar.
FT6 will use the TigerShark Block 3 XP, a NAVMAR Applied Sciences
Corporation (NASC), Group 3 UAS with a wingspan of 21.9 feet for the final test
series. The TigerShark features a payload capacity of 95 lbs. and a maximum
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.infoendurance of 12 hours. The TigerShark XP has been modified with a unique smoke system to help intruder aircrew visually acquire the aircraft during flight tests and a nose structure to integrate Honeywell’s radar system. The Digital Active Phased Array, or DAPA-Lite radar system, is a new technology compared to previous flight series. The radar system consists of three small radar panels whose radar beams can be electronically steered to point in different directions without the need of moving antennas. The three panels are arranged to provide a wide horizontal field of view. “The radar system is cutting-edge technology with panels small enough to be carried on a smaller UAS, but still have enough range to see and avoid other aircraft,” said FT6 DAA Principal Investigator Michael Vincent. “Our goal for FT6 is to challenge the effectiveness of our DAA system and Honeywell’s radar system as we develop performance standards of unmanned aircraft being integrated in our national airspace system.” A primary objective for the project team is to characterize Honeywell’s DAPA-Lite radar to determine its effectiveness and its range and accuracy. The team will be testing what the radar can actually detect with its low size weight and power radar system. The DAPA-Lite radar will provide the data to the DAA system to determine the distance, bearing and elevation between the UAS and other aircraft. The DAA system will then use the information from the radar system to determine which flight path to take to maintain safe separation. FT6 will help establish the minimum operational performance standards for DAA systems for UAS in the NAS. The system must alert the pilot in a timely manner when a conflict occurs and determine which display elements the pilot needs to be aware of in order to guide the TigerShark away from potential danger. Three intruders will be used during the flight tests each representing a different common size aircraft that a UAS may encounter in the NAS, the King Air B200, T- 34C and TG-14 Motor Glider. Some flight tests will require an intruder aircraft to fly on the same path head-on toward the TigerShark with a safety separation buffer. This particular encounter will demonstrate the effectiveness of the DAA alerting system and what type of guidance it will recommend to avoid the intruder. The flight series includes 150 encounters in 26 flights, which consists of six radar characterization flights, 12 DAA scripted encounter flights and eight full mission encounter flights. Each full mission encounter flight will feature a different pilot that is naïve to the FT6 objectives and encounters to gather accurate data on how a pilot will react and respond to the systems. Pilots will fly a simulated UAS mission and interact with an air traffic controller and other traffic (live and virtual) in the airspace. The pilot will be tasked with using the DAA system to avoid live aircraft that the DAPA-Lite radar detects. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
“Every decision we have made for FT6 was a result of what we have learned in previous flight tests,” added Vincent. “Our journey through each flight test series has been instrumental in the hopes of allowing unmanned aircraft to enter unsegregated airspace in the near future. FT6 will be a big factor on how we can safely integrate unmanned aircraft.” NASA’s participation includes Armstrong, and researchers from Ames Research Center in California, and Langley Research Center in Virginia. Meanwhile, several different flying encounter scenarios were tested using manned and unmanned aircraft at the New Mexico State University (NMSU) Physical Science Laboratory test site at Jornada Experimental Range from 16-18 July 2019. The flight tests are part of a US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) project to examine “Small UAS Detect and Avoid Requirements Necessary for Limited Beyond Visual Line of Sight Operations: Separation Requirements and Testing”. The range is one of seven FAA-approved unmanned Aircraft Systems test sites designated to test airborne, ground-based, visual/optical systems, radar and acoustic technology solutions. Two types of UAS, a multi-rotor and a fixed wing, fitted with detect and avoid equipment, and two manned, NMSU vehicles, the CTLS Light Sport aircraft and Spyder Ultralight aircraft, which posed as the intruder aircraft, were used in the flight testing. An AI-based autonomous collision avoidance system from Iris Automation called Casia was used on the UAS to detect manned aircraft and respond with an avoidance manoeuvre. Considerations for encounter scenarios included safe separation distances between vehicles of at least 100 feet in lateral separation and 250 feet in vertical separation. The vehicles conducted tests at different encounter angles and cross patterns. Flights were conducted at two altitudes: 100 feet for the UAS and 500 feet for the manned along with 400 feet for the UAS and 650 feet for the manned. The testing assessed when the Iris system was triggered and its limits. Flight information on both the UAS and manned vehicles was collected, and the research team is due to plot together the information to show the encounters in the coming weeks. NMSU then plans to provide the FAA with details about the performance of the technology. FAA UAS technical project lead Bill Oehlschlager said: ““We have several more flight test events before we actually come up with a comprehensive plan, but we are using each flight test event to further expand the data we need to collect and how the operations need to run. We are using each incremental step to collect more data and make it safer for when we actually do this testing.” Officials present for the testing included NMSU personnel, FAA sponsors, FAA technical leads, FAA interns, Iris Automation flight personnel, industry representatives, UND and UAF personnel. As one of 15 core universities for the FAA UAS Center of Excellence, NMSU is also working with the University of North Dakota, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Kansas The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
State University and Mississippi State University on the research project. NMSU, UND and UAF are each hosting flight testing on detect and avoid solutions. In this research area, NMSU is evaluating the requirements for an airborne or ground- based Detect and Avoid system compatible with small UAS (55 pounds and less) operating in limited portions of the National Air Space to comply with the regulations and not increase the risk to other aircraft or people on the ground, beyond what is currently in effect. Additionally, NMSU is accessing the requirements for software along with what are the most feasible airborne or ground-based sensors. In terms of industry research, in May 2018 AirMap and Wing report they have successfully demonstrated a solution to safety-critical airspace deconfliction challenges as part of the ongoing NASA-UTM trials. AirMap joined Wing and ANRA technologies to test TCL3 concepts, including failover recovery, remote identification, dynamic weather conditions, contingency planning, and USS-to-USS communication for multiple drone operations. According to AirMap: “During the trial, AirMap provided UTM services to a senseFly eBee and an Intel Aero, while Wing powered separate Intel Aeros, a DJI Inspire, and their own delivery drone. AirMap and Wing UTM systems successfully planned and de-conflicted flight plans within the same airspace using an open source, distributed, peer-to-peer system to perform a multitude of missions, including surveys and package delivery in close proximity. Throughout the flights, AirMap and Wing UTM systems demonstrated inter-USS communication such as real-time telemetry and notifications to ensure compliance and safety across the entire multi-USS UTM environment. “Inter-USS communication is among the most technically challenging of capabilities demonstrated in TCL3,” said AirMap. “At scale, drones will be operating simultaneously in a wide variety of commercial applications like search-and-rescue, industrial inspection, and logistics. In these applications, drones will be operating in shared dimensions, connected to a variety of USS platforms. These USS platforms need to be able to talk to each other to manage drone traffic safely and efficiently in congested airspace. The technology demonstrated in TCL3 serves as a foundation for information exchange between USSs to enable a cooperative and scalable low- altitude airspace system.” Thus research led to the announcement in June 2018 at the GUTMA annual conference in Madrid that five UAS service suppliers (USSs) have joined together under the sponsorship of Google’s Wing to develop a global, grid-based USS-USS open-source communications platform, called InterUSS Platform ™ as a first stage in de-conflicting drone flights anywhere in the world, no matter which USS has the authority for UTM operations in a particular country or area. The system divides the world into 750m grids; when a drone connected to a UTM platform provided by AirMap, Altitude Angel, PrecisionHawk, Skyward, Unifly and Wing enters the grid a message will be sent to other USS operators to alert them. The system uses the Apache License permissive free software, to allow de-confliction operations to take place on a machine-to-machine basis, using the algorithms The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
developed by each service provider, and will be opened up to new partners in the coming months, with Global UTM Association (GUTMA) providing support in this area. Meanwhile, the EUROCAE standards team plans to deliver tactical mitigation standards against conflicting traffic for RPAS operating under IFR and VFR in all airspace classes by September 2018. JARUS is also working on a document that describes the methods to derive design objectives for DAA systems based on airspace requirements. In November 2019 NASA’s Langley Research Center started using FLARM traffic awareness and collision avoidance technology in its Pathfinder drone UTM project. The goal of Pathfinder is to take separate UTM projects and combine them into a single autonomous concept to enable vehicles to fly and communicate with other autonomous vehicles in the airspace. “Pathfinder was conceived as a way to perform a graduation exercise for a lot of the UTM projects we developed over the years,” said Lou Glaab, assistant branch head for the Aeronautic Systems Engineering Branch in Langley’s Engineering Directorate and Pathfinder project manager. Part of that graduation exercise is the Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems (ICAROUS). “We’re testing things like ICAROUS, which is an autonomous sense and avoid flight management system for unmanned systems, as well as Safe-2-Ditch, which is an autonomous safe landing or autonomous crash management system,” said Glaab. FLARM is being used as part of ICAROUS both to avoid manned aircraft as well as other drones. “To operate autonomously you need several capabilities, especially in the UAS domain,” said Swee Balachandran, research engineer. “You need to be able to make decisions to avoid other intruders in the air space, stay clear from no-fly zones, or inside a no-fly zone the UAV should know how to get out of it and to re-route itself around obstacles and no-fly areas.” Balachandran also said that these functionalities are essential to operate autonomously without human intervention. ICAROUS supports this concept with formal verification. “Every algorithm that you develop goes through a rigorous mathematical process and we have certain properties, and we ensure the algorithms satisfy those properties so that it is safety-critical and you don’t see unwanted behaviours in flight,” said Balachandran. In August 2018 uAvionix and Flarm Technology announced a partnership to collaborate on Electronic Conspicuity (EC) and Detect and Avoid (DAA) solutions for manned and unmanned aircraft. uAvionix specialises in ADS-B, Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR) transponders, and GNSS position sources for manned and unmanned aircraft. Flarm specialises in situational awareness and active DAA solutions for general aviation and unmanned aircraft. Both companies offer products for installation and portable use together with modern display systems such as Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) applications. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
The companies plan to incorporate their respective technologies into one another’s products and to develop and sell interoperable solutions for these markets across the world. The companies also plan to collaborate on UAS remote identification standards and solutions. Flarm’s Open eID Standard, the electronic identification standard published globally, is being trialled in Europe for DAA and remote identification purposes, a key enabler for UTM frameworks like U-space. uAvionix’s DroneAware® system is being tested as a component of the NASA UTM TCL3 demonstrations as well as three of the UAS Integration Pilot Programs in the US. “As the airspace becomes more and more crowded, it is increasingly important to integrate existing electronic conspicuity solutions into interoperable platforms. ADS-B and Flarm are the two dominating GNSS-based solutions in use today” said Christian Ramsey, President uAvionix. “Combining Detect and Avoid and remote ID solutions for both manned and unmanned traffic will enable the safe and efficient integration of all traffic in the same airspace and keep the responsibility where it should be: with the pilot,” said Daniel Hoffmann, General Manager Flarm Technology. A month later, uAvionix announced the release of its 1090nano, a 1090MHz ADS-B single chip solution for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) ADS-B transceivers and detect and avoid (DAA) applications. In early 2017, uAvionix introduced its T-UAT, a dime-sized 978MHz single chip which has become the cornerstone for all of uAvionix’s 978MHz ADS-B solutions, for both manned and unmanned solutions, including the recently TSO certified skyBeacon. When paired with the T-UAT, the 1090nano will offer dual-band ADS-B receiver functionality at a size, weight, and power (SWaP) never before achieved. “1090nano isn’t just the latest addition to our expanding product line,” said Paul Beard, uAvionix’s chief executive officer, “It represents another affordable safety- enhancing solution, like T-UAT in 2017 and the recently TSO- certified skyBeacon, which we’ve been able to develop thanks, in no small part, to the significant financial backing of two major investors, Playground Global and Airbus Ventures,” Beard said. “Both T-UAT and 1090nano chipsets are capable of transmitting ADS-B messages at very low power, at a range of 0.01-0.25W, which translates to roughly 1-10 miles,” Beard added. “Our plans for 1090nano include incorporation into current and future certified 1090MHz Mode C and S transponders, as well as low power detection and avoidance solutions for UAS. We introduced a Patent Pending concept we dubbed Inert and Alert In March of 2018 that offers low power, spectrum saving and safety solutions. The release of 1090nano further broadens this concept.” Also in August 2018 Echodyne announced it had received Federal Communications Commission (FCC) certification for its EchoFlight radar, an airborne detect and avoid radar designed for integration into a wide-variety of UAS platforms. “For organisations seeking authorisation to operate beyond visual line of sight or autonomously, EchoFlight radar is a significant step forward for UAS mission safety,” says a company statement. According to Eben Frankenberg, CEO of Echodyne: “Our compact, solid-state, lightweight yet powerful radar offers the ability to scan large volumes of airspace and track other aircraft with sufficient range to maintain safety.” The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
In October 2018 Raytheon reported it was close to completing the safety case for the company’s Ground Based Detect and Avoid (GBDAA) system, used by the US Air Force and also demonstrated at Springfield-Beckley Municipal Airport in Ohio. The ground-based detect and avoid (GBDAA) capability uses existing air traffic data from multiple sources to provide Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) operators with a real-time display of aircraft in the surrounding airspace. GBDAA alerts operators to potential conflicts with neighbouring aircraft and recommends avoidance manoeuvres for UAS in the event of a conflict. The US Air Force has used GBDAA in place of ground observers or chase aircraft at Cannon Air Force Base in New Mexico to allow safe passage of UAS to a military operations area via civil airspace since 2014. Raytheon is currently installing the equipment at Beale Air Force base in California to eliminate a temporary flight restriction area, followed by Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota. A mobile version of the equipment was recently deployed in Ohio to help accelerate the safe integration of drones into the national airspace: Here, GBDAA supports small UAS operating beyond visual line of site (BVLOS) in an area that extends some 200 square miles. The Volpe Centre is supporting deployment of the mobile version of GBDAA for the joint project between US Air Force Research Labs and the State of Ohio. The programme is building a safety case for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and providing a mobile common centre able to respond in the case of a natural disaster. The main component of GBDAA is a modified FAA terminal automation system equipped with Raytheon’s Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS) that ingests and displays surrounding aircraft to a UAS operator. GBDAA leverages existing NAS radar equipment and infrastructure to locate surrounding aircraft and can also take feeds from infill radar designed to track small UAS. Conflicts are brought to the attention of the controller using three levels of alert with visual and audio alarms. The mobile unit features also a data link capability that enables position data based on GPS information to be sent by UAS operators to the command unit. Raytheon believes GBDAA can help support their safe integration into national airspace and enable both manned and unmanned aircraft to follow the most direct and safe routes. Replacing the need to fly in segregated airspace could also help to reduce the size of restricted military areas. Also in November, Aerobits Poland signed a strategic co-operation agreement with Flarm Technology Ltd., specialist in the production of anti-collision systems for general aviation. The aim of this agreement is the miniaturisation of fused Flarm and ADS-B technology together with its transfer into unmanned systems. The scope of the actions also includes development of high-sensitivity stations for the ground infrastructure and sub-miniature OEM modules, incorporating in its structure three technologies: GNSS/ADS-B/FLARM. “Those new solutions are critical to integrate unmanned traffic management (UTM) with air traffic management (ATM). Aerobits already cooperates with UTM suppliers such as DroneRadar and Unifly by providing transponders and ADS-B infrastructure necessary to develop, test and implement the U-space concept. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
In December 2018 Unmanned Systems Technology reported that the Northeast UAS Airspace Integration Research Alliance (NUAIR) had announced the successful demonstration of a new Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS) for small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). “The first-of-it-kind test flights for ACAS sXu (the newest member of the ACAS X family designed specifically for small unmanned aircraft) were held at Griffiss Airport in Rome, New York,” says the news site. “The system is a smaller and more compact version of the next generation ACAS X, an airborne collision avoidance system now under development for large passenger and cargo-carrying aircraft. The tests showed the system has the unique ability to detect and avoid other aircraft, both manned and unmanned. The flight tests were a collaboration between AiRXOS, a GE venture, Fortem Technologies, GE Aviation, GE Global Research, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, the FAA TCAS Program Office, AX Enterprize, the New York UAS Test Site in Oneida County and NUAIR Alliance. “During flight, detect and avoid capabilities use information from airborne and ground-based sensors to make pilots aware of potential collision risk and provide guidance to ensure a safe outcome. The ACAS sXu system is specifically designed to do this by providing back-up collision avoidance to provide an additional layer of safety beyond existing air traffic control systems and flight procedures. “These features are key toward commercialisation of UAVs and urban air mobility. Furthermore, the ACAS tests specifically showed that the system could be run as an airborne system, as well as a cloud-based system inside of the unmanned aircraft systems traffic management (UTM) architecture, with similar detect and avoid abilities.” Also in December 2018 Boeing conducted a flight experiment to test the concept of expanding radar capabilities to UAS at the headquarters of Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing subsidiary, in Manassas, Va. The addition of an airborne radar to Boeing subsidiary Insitu’s Inexa Access – Ground Detect and Avoid system creates a common operating picture that enables UAS operators to better visualise the surrounding air traffic and ensure they stay well clear of other aircraft. The Boeing team equipped an Aurora Centaur optionally-piloted aircraft with a small radar to serve as a UAS surrogate mimicking Insitu’s ScanEagle3. Using a second Centaur and Cessna 172 as “intruder” aircraft within the same airspace, the team flew collision-type flight profiles and recorded the data. GPS data from all three aircraft allowed the team to determine the accuracy of the aircraft location data derived from the airborne radar. The radar technology used in this experiment comes from Fortem Technologies, Inc., a Salt Lake City, Utah-based company developing advanced radar systems for unmanned and manned aircraft. Boeing HorizonX Ventures invested in Fortem to support the growth of its airspace awareness solutions that ensure safe operations of UAS. In April 2019 Kongsberg Geospatial announced it had developed IRIS UxS Fleet Control Station technology to enable multiple drones to be monitored and controlled simultaneously by a single operator and provides real-time calculation of aircraft separation, airspace monitoring alerts and communications line-of- sight prediction to enable detect and avoid for safe BVLOS operations. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
According to the company the IRIS FCS integrates a variety of real-time data feeds including ADS-B, local radar and National Airspace Feeds to calculate “detect and avoid” warnings. IRIS provides real-time 2D and 3D visualization of airborne track and weather data, as well as geo-fencing capabilities. IRIS UAS is an airspace situational awareness system developed to provide Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) operators with the necessary situational awareness to safely operate multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Beyond Visual Line-of-Sight (BVLOS). The platform presents users with 2D and 3D map and terrain data, aeronautical information such as aerodrome locations, obstacles and airspace, and real-time data from sensors, cameras, and weather data sources – all integrated within a single, common operating picture display. The IRIS UxS technology provides enhanced BVLOS situational awareness to MicroPilot autopilot users flying multiple UAS per operator. MicroPilot develops and manufactures autopilots for fixed, rotary wing and hybrid UAVs, including the triple redundant MP21283X. Also in April 2019 uAvionix announced a partnership with CubePilot, designer and manufacturer of “the Cube” autopilot for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) – to integrate ADS-B IN receive capability into its Carrier Board. The new Carrier Board, available in July this year, integrates uAvionix’s custom ADS-B silicon for 1090MHz ADS-B reception for worldwide Detect and Avoid (DAA) functionality. CubePilot, which proudly uses the open- source ARDUPILOT platform, previously provided plug-and-play functionality for several uAvionix ADS-B IN and OUT products, including PingRX, Ping2020i and Ping1090i. Support for these products is retained in the new design, allowing for 978MHz ADS-B reception or integration of ADS-B OUT functionality. “With this integration, UAS operators will be able to see nearby ADS-B OUT enabled aircraft on ARDUPILOT’s Mission Planner, allowing the Remote Pilot in Command (RPIC) with timely notification to take the necessary actions to remain well clear,” said a company press release. According to Christian Ramsey, uAvionix President. “We believe that ADS-B IN functionality should be a requirement for every DAA system for UAS operations over people or Beyond Visual Line of Sight, and meeting that requirement should not be cost prohibitive.” The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
7. Market forecasts for growth in the global UTM market – by value,
geographic demand and sectors
Table twenty-two: UTM service providers and commercial contracts with ANSPs, civil
aviation authorities
UTM service
Date Client Country Contract details
supplier
Public launch of the
Exponent Portal
software which
Dubai Civil allows DCAA officials
April 2016 Exponent Aviation Dubai and other local
Administration authorities to track
the location, speed
and height of
drones.
2017
UTM deployment
July Unifly DFS Germany with mobile app in
July 2017
The AirMap UTM
platform is deployed
in Kansas where
Kansas drones will be
Department mobilised for disaster
August AirMap of USA recovery, search-
Transportation and-rescue,
(KDOT) agriculture,
construction,
package delivery,
and more.
Temporary UTM set
States of
up in wake of
August/September AirMap Texas and USA
hurricanes Harvey
Florida
and Irma
A contract to
Kongsberg Public produce an
September Canada
Geospatial Services and Emergency
Procurement Operations Airspace
Management
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.infoCanada System (EOAMS) for
(PSPC) evaluation by
Canadian
government
agencies for safely
managing drones at
emergency and
disaster scenes.
Approval to give
commercial drone
operators instant
Federal access to controlled
October Skyward Aviation USA airspace with the
Administration Low Altitude
Authorisation and
Notification
Capability (LAANC)
Launch of
Danish
“Droneluftrum” app
Transport,
centred on
October Unifly Construction Denmark
interactive map
and Housing
based on Unifly
Authority
software
Approval to give
commercial drone
operators instant
Federal access to controlled
November AirMap Aviation USA airspace with the
Administration Low Altitude
Authorisation and
Notification
Capability (LAANC)
Drone operators use
AirMap’s iOS and
Android apps to
request airspace
approvals required
Airways New New by New Zealand’s
December AirMap Civil Aviation
Zealand Zealand
Authority at
Christchurch,
Queenstown, and
Wanaka airports,
and on public lands
in the Christchurch
City, Selwyn, and
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.infoQueenstown Lakes
District Council,
including parks and
reserves.
Chiba City is the first
city in Japan to
Rakuten deploy the Airspace
December Chiba City Japan
AirMap Management
Dashboard from
Rakuten AirMap.
UTM deployment
December Unifly Austrocontrol Austria
with mobile app
2018
Belgocontrol Launch of
and the droneguide.be, a
March Unifly Belgian Civil Belgium digital platform
Aviation based on Unifly
Authority software.
Approval to give
commercial drone
operators instant
Federal access to controlled
March Wing Aviation USA airspace with the
Administration Low Altitude
Authorisation and
Notification
Capability (LAANC)
Approval to give
commercial drone
operators instant
Federal access to controlled
Rockwell
March Aviation USA airspace with the
Collins
Administration Low Altitude
Authorisation and
Notification
Capability (LAANC)
Deutsche The UTM system is
March DFS Germany
Telecom based on the DFS
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.info7.1 UTM market forecasts by value, geographic demand and sectors – 2019-
2023
Table twenty-three: Comparing market forecasts
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Shipments of Gartner 351.5 525.6 730.9 976.7 1,271.6 -
commercial
drones Dec (50%) (39%) (33%) (30%)
2019
(CAG)
Total drone IDC - USD16.3 USD21.7 USD28.9 USD38.5 USD51.3
expenditure Jan
2020 (33.3%) (33.3%) (33.3%) (33.3%) (33.3%)
(USD billion)
(CAG)
Commercial Teal USD4.9 USD 5.5 USD6.2 USD7.0 USD7.9 USD8.9
drone
expenditure Jun (12.6%) (12.6%) (12.6%) (12.6%) (12.6%)
(USD billion) 2019
(CAG)
Total drone Azoth - - - - - -
expenditure
Jan
CAG 2019
between
2019-2024
43.1%
US civil FAA 400 545 711 789 - -
drone fleet –
base Apr (36.2%) (30.4%) (10.9%) (8.3%)
forecasts 2019
(000s)
(CAG)
Commercial Tractica 2.0 2.85 4.0 5.0 7.25 9.0
drone
hardware Oct (42.5%) (40.3%) (25.0%) (45.0%) (25.0%)
and 2019
software
(USD billion)
CAGR
The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020
www.unmannedairspace.info8. The Urban Air Mobility UTM market 8.1 Introduction to the UAM market The first global, detailed, city-by-city analysis of urban air mobility investment costs, revenue potential and infrastructure requirements has been completed by Washington DC-based corporate and strategic financial consultancy NEXA Advisors. NEXA has researched detailed infrastructure requirements for 74 cities around the world which are most likely to pioneer urban air mobility operations. The upfront infrastructure investments for UAM heliports, vertiports, mega‐ports and airport landing sites – including passenger services, security and UAS traffic management services – will require more than USD30 billion in capital between today and 2040 but will generate direct income of around USD 318 billion, say the report authors, and total direct and indirect income of around USD600 billion. The team estimates that there will be approximately 1.29 billion passengers flying the analyzed services in the 74 cities within the 20 year forecast period. There will be an initial foundation service period followed by an “Inflection Point” when the market starts to accelerate steeply brought about by increasing use of automation. “Operator revenues brought about from substantial passenger demand of about 1.3 billion passenger flights yield USD244 billion across all 74cities,” says the report. This represents a 20 year average ticket price of USD188 per passenger. “A capital investment along with operating costs for UAM and AUTM infrastructure is estimated to be about USD31.9 billion. eVTOL vehicle sales should surpass USD41 billion, representing many tens of thousands of vehicles.” “The full potential of UAM will be achievable only with higher levels of automation of eVTOL flight, dynamic airspace access through geofencing, UATM oversight, sense‐ and‐avoid surveillance and vehicle interoperability,” continues the study. “It is not difficult to visualize that cockpit automation will be necessary to improve the safety of flight, and drive costs – and ticket prices – down. The Inflection Point for the industry will occur in multiple phases toward the end of the first decade….However, the ability of vehicle manufacturers to demonstrate and certify safe automated flight to greater than [10‐9] is a critical milestone, and as this will require logging hundreds of thousands of demonstration flight hours, starts now (and it has already begun).” The study includes a detailed city-by-city infrastructure planning analysis using satellite imagery and the ArcGIS geographic information system produced and maintained by ESRI. For each city infrastructure costs have been analysed and forecast, as well as potential passenger numbers (see below). NEXA has detailed the costs of developing and implementing ground infrastructure and UTM services in the individual cities. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.01 March 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info
You can also read
