THE INFLUENCE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ON THE PREPARATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND OF THE TERRITORY FOR DEFENSE
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International Conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION Vol. XXVII No 1 2021 THE INFLUENCE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ON THE PREPARATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND OF THE TERRITORY FOR DEFENSE Gabriel MĂNESCU, Sebastian-Emanuel STAN ”Nicolae Bălcescu” Land Forces Academy, Sibiu, Romania manescug@yahoo.com, sebastian.stan@armyacademy.ro Abstract: The paper reviews the main factors relevant to the preparation of the economy and territory for defense as well as the main developments of military applications of disruptive technologies. The brief presentation of some of these technologies, as well as the exemplification with certain data regarding their use, come to outline the need to constantly adapt defense policies to the new trends in this field. Keywords: disruptive technologies, defence policy, economical power, military power 1. Introduction As a component of national security, the Preparing the territory to ensure the preparation of the economy and territory for conditions necessary to defend its integrity defense is based on the provisions of the in time of war is not a novel issue. The Constitution, laws and documents on experience of the wars has shown that, national defense planning and, last but not since ancient times, there have been least, the obligations that our country has concerns about the material resources assumed through international treaties and needed to sustain military conflicts, that agreements. According to Art.2 of Law no. they should be accumulated in time and 477/2003 on the preparation of the national preserved on the territory, in districts hard economy and the territory for defense, “the to reach for the enemy, near likely areas of preparation of the national economy and fighting. Thus, in the feudal era, on the the territory for defense includes the set of territory of our homeland, the necessary measures and actions that are established means for defense against invaders were and carried out in peacetime, in order to kept in fortresses usually built near the use the economic and human potential of country’s borders, which played a special the country, fin order to address the needs role in the great anti-Ottoman battles of defense and ensure the continuity of carried out under the leadership of the economic and social activities in case of brilliant voivodes Mircea cel Bătrân, Stefan mobilization or war”[1]. cel Mare, Mihai Viteazul and others, serving as strongholds in the fight to defend 2. Organization and Preparation of the the territorial integrity and the national Territory for Defense Needs existence of our people and aimed to From the point of view of the conditions for preserve weapons, ammunition, food, defense, the land presents extremely varied medicine and other means necessary for conditions, from the natural obstacles, popular resistance. formed by the hydrographic network, DOI: 10.2478/kbo-2021-0031 © 2015. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 License. 204
orographic barriers, and forested lands and From the point of view of natural up to anthropic buildings with exclusive conditions, the axiom remains that the destination. heavily rugged and forested lands are easier Natural conditions can be favorable or to defend, even with reduced forces in the restrictive factors in terms of defense needs. face of a formidable enemy. The organization and preparation of the The case of the harassment of German territory for defense is conditioned by three troops in the former Yugoslav space by J.B. essential factories, namely: Tito during World War II is one of the most natural conditions; eloquent examples of efficient land use. the state and economic structure of a Extreme climatic conditions are established territory and the infrastructural as repulsive and hostile factors for invading conditions; troops. In parallel with the weakening of the evolution of fighting technique and the fighting potential, the Russian winter defense policy. was a reliable ally in stopping the German It is well-known that intramountaneous invasion of Moscow during World War II. territories, accessible by peaks or passes, American soldiers during the Vietnam War can be more easily defended by the had an additional enemy in the high punctual and safe nature of the placement temperature and humidity and the of roads from a possible invasion. unstoppable invasions of mosquitoes. Defending passes has always been a In the current situation of Romanian army’s priority in state defense policy. Invasion involvement on the anti-terrorist front in troops can be caught in ambushes, and a Afghanistan or the establishment of calm small number of attack forces can and reconstruction of Iraq, the soldiers completely decimate the troops and the complain mostly not about the perfidy and invasion technique. strength of the enemy, but more often about Water crossings, with low banks and the unbearable heat and desert dust. shallow waters, are speculated for the The economy of the states is dualistic, in crossing of troops and combat equipment. the sense that it satisfies both civil needs That is why, as a rule, such points are par excellence, but also military needs. strongly defended. During wars, a large part of the productive The forested territories are formidable forces are converted to support the war (the shelters for manpower and fighting transition from production for civilian equipment. The organization of the defense needs to military production). In many in a forested field is favored by the cases, no distinction can be made between possibilities of masking and sheltering the civilian and military production (e.g. food troops and fighting equipment and by the industry, textile industry, etc.). obstacle posed by the tree trunks in the way The territorial concentration of the of motorized means of combat and population, of production and their ammunition. supporting infrastructures (railroads, roads, The forest offers the most effective means canals, channels, airports, lines for the of masking troops in advancing and transportation of electricity, gas and oil retreating actions, in parallel with sheltering main avenues, water accumulations, etc.) is then in the dark of night. also a factor of remarkable territorial Numerous examples are known from the strength and a vulnerability factor that time of the second world conflagration, requires additional and diversified defense when whole units in daytime marches were measures. decimated by machine guns from low- Logically, strong and modern economies altitude aircraft. allocate more substantial funds for defense. The more advanced the economy, the more 205
sophisticated, diversified and effective the transforming disruptive technologies into fighting technique. Strong economies military capabilities will provoke a support warring states more effectively. paradigm shift in international relations Anthropic structures support the defense and security studies” [3]. needs from the perspective of their Military specialists and politico-military destination, type and the materials from analysts are united in the belief that the which they are built. most important military technologies with disruptive potential are biotechnology, 3. Disruptive technologies artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons The concept of disruption is not a new one, systems, hypersonic weapons, directed being initially characteristic of the field of energy weapons and quantum technology. electrical engineering. Harvard professor Of course, some of these, for example Clayton Christensen widely publicized the biotechnologies, artificial intelligence and disruptive potential and especially that of quantum technology, can in many cases be disruptive innovation in his book The of the dual-use type, but in this paper we Innovator’s Dillemma, published more than aimed to highlight only their military two decades ago, in which he describes aspects. disruption as “a new concept radically Biotechnology is “the field which exploits changing the foundation of competition in biological sciences in order to develop new an industry” [2]. According to Christensen, technologies, some with very serious there are two main types of technological implications for national security” [4]. innovations: sustainable and disruptive. If the general public agrees with these and Sustainable innovations are introduced to is aware of the benefits of this technology maintain a direction of past performance, in various fields, the recent pandemic crisis preferred by most consumers. In contrast, generated by the SARS-Cov 2 virus, comes disruptive innovations introduce a to overshadow and ridicule the results of different value proposition on the market, decades of research. And this is due to the even if the product's performance is lower, failure of any organization / state to assume at least on short term. the factors that led to its emergence, the As expected, the concept of disruption was lack of transparency and procrastination in quickly assimilated into almost all sectors communicating the results of investigations, of economic, social, political and military the delayed or disproportionate response of life. state institutions and, last but not least, Precisely due to the ability to manifest in moral aspects / ethics. various fields of activity and to the impact Certainly, one of the best known areas with they entail, disruptive technologies are the disruptive potential is that of artificial subject of studies and analyzes of intelligence (AI) which can be defined as "a institutions involved in their development machine capable of imitating the cognitive or which have identified direct / indirect functions which we conventionally threats. associate with humans and create human- The disruptive military technology is “an level knowledge" [5]. AI is used at a large- improved or completely new technology scale, with military applications, such as which is capable of fundamentally changing C4ISR, cyber operations, military logistics the traditional models of security and systems, semi-autonomous and autonomous defence. The impact of these technologies weapons systems, etc. Lately we have will be in the necessity to redefine classic witnessed an unprecedented development of security strategies, modify military the phenomenon called "deep fake", based doctrines, adapt operational context or on AI and which has the ability to replicate even the logic of war. Furthermore, in "target environments" and which has the 206
role of providing a distorted picture of with the aim of inducing strong perceptions reality in order to undermine trust in the with potential for a credible distortion of state authorities in charge of ensuring the objectivity needed in major decision defense and national security of the other moments. areas vital for the survival of the state. Of A practical example, which combines the course, this phenomenon is not new either, potential of AI with the development of but the approach and the channels through flight systems, is that of drones, which are which it is achieved is novel, the ability to able to take certain decisions independently. bypass the established filters is innovative, Their evolution is shown in figure no. 1. Figure 1: Brief history of UAV’s development [6] In support of the above, we must specify nautical miles and, especially that there that relatively recent facts come to illustrate have been no reports of ships that raise the capabilities of UAVs. In July 2019, suspicions about capabilities to use these several US Navy destroyers were systems in the area. maneuvering when, during the night, The autonomous lethal weapons will be “a swarms of small drones harassed military category of weapons systems which can ships. The event was not a singular one, as identify, engage and destroy targets without such events were reported and recorded in human intervention. In the configuration of the ship's logs and in the following nights. such weapons we find advanced What US military officials consider calculations, analysis and decisions systems; worrying is the fact that the presence of sensors which can observe, identify and these UAVs has been reported at great classify an object as hostile, as well as target distances from the shore, at over 160 guidance equipment. Their autonomy will 207
allow them to operate in difficult We consider that for our investigative environments for long-distance approach, the presentation of these communication, command and control capabilities of disruptive technologies are means” [7]. Although these systems are more than eloquent. As new information on highly desirable by the armed forces, the development of these technologies fortunately they have not yet been equipped becomes available, we will be able to make with them, due to concerns about their much more detailed predictions about the control or more specifically whether the configuration of possible conflicts. systems will be able to provide sufficient credible guarantees that they will comply 4. Conclusions with the rules of engagement in combat and We are witnessing unprecedented with the laws of war that apply to the people. technological developments that Some of the most current weapons systems significantly influence every aspect of life. with disruptive potential are hypersonic If we refer strictly to the military aspects, weapons. The fierce competition between the implementation of new technologies, Russia, the USA and China for supremacy especially the disruptive ones, we notice in this field is well known, the first of these that they can influence / change not only the states having, according to some military physiognomy of future conflicts, but also analysts, at least two years ahead of their the current power relations. Investing in competitors. These systems will be able to state-of-the-art technologies can bring carry explosive charges, including nuclear, double benefits. On the one hand, the with speeds up to five times the speed of economy of the states will benefit because sound and at distances of 2-3000 km, all production processes / systems will depending on their launch system, which benefit from the advantages offered by AI gives them a high degree of protection by increasing efficiency and productivity against interception and, at the same time, and by becoming sustainable. On the other an increased probability of hitting the hand, as economic power increases, so does target. “Russia has stated that its Kh-47M2 the military power of the state. From this Kinzhal is a hypersonic missile which has a article it can be deduced with certainty that range of 3,000 km, also taking into account the first two factors that influence the the flight autonomy of its carrier aircraft, if defense potential of a state are canceled by it is launched from the supersonic Tu-22M3 the development of new weapons systems bomber, and 2,000 km if its launched from that incorporate different disruptive a MiG-31K fighter jet, the configuration on technologies. Of course, politico-military which the first tests took place. Among the decision-makers will take into account the missile’s potential targets are static or influences of new technologies in mobile objectives, either terrestrial or developing defense policies that best naval” [8]. correspond to the legitimate interests of the state. References List [1] http://legislatie.just.ro/Public/DetaliiDocument/47873 [2] Christensen, C. The Innovator’s Dillemma, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts, 1997Surname Initial(s). Book title. Edition - if available. Place: Publisher; Year. [3] Iancu, I. The new dictionary of defence: disruptive technologies, Defence & Security Monitor, 2019. Available from:https://en.monitorulapararii.ro/the-new-dictionary-of- defence-disruptive-technologies-1-23277 [4] Idem 208
[5] Idem [6] Badea, D., Mănescu, G., Iancu, D., Bucoveţchi, O., Dinicu, A. “Civilian – military interferences in the management of research for the security and defense field”, The 9th International Conference on Manufacturing Science and Education - MSE 2019, Sibiu, June 5 – 7, 2019, Romania, DOI: 10.1051/matecconf /20192901 MSE 2019 13001 3001 [7] Iancu, I. Op. cit. [8] Idem 209
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