The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield
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The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Introduction This study presents a business case for two improvements, estimated to cost up to $3 billion, proposed rail improvements in the Connecticut would boost speed, reliability, and access. Valley region: the completion of the bi-state The East-West Rail project in Massachusetts Hartford Line and implementation of the East- would connect Springfield to Worcester and West Rail project in Massachusetts. These Boston, and potentially westward to Pittsfield. improvements, which intersect at the traditional These services nominally exist today, but regional crossroads of Springfield Union Station, with only one train in each direction (Amtrak’s would connect to other current and future rail Lakeshore Limited), unreliable performance, and improvements in New England. The analysis uncompetitively slow speeds—about an hour presented here examines the economic potential of the Hartford-Springfield region and the ability of Figure 1: Metro Hartford-Springfield enhanced passenger rail service to help achieve and the Northeast that potential. Worcester NY This report presents the study’s background Boston and key findings in a narrative format. A longer Springfield and more detailed analysis, including the documentation of all assumptions, methods, Hartford and results, is available in the accompanying New Haven Technical Appendix. The Hartford Line, a regional rail service New York connecting New Haven, Hartford, and Springfield, NJ J opened in 2018, following a significant investment in the corridor’s rail infrastructure and rolling MD KEY stock.1 The work remaining to be done includes Northeast Mega Region electrification, additional rolling stock, a Northeast Corridor (NEC) replacement of the Connecticut RiverVA Bridge at Counties Windsor Locks, double-tracking of key segments, Metro Hartford-Springfield five new or relocated stations, and upgrading Northeast Corridor (NEC) the downtown Hartford rail viaduct. These Rail Line 21st century Inland Route he analysis presented here examines the T economic potential of the Hartford-Springfield region and the ability of enhanced passenger rail service to help achieve that potential. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 1
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 longer than driving in mid-day conditions. While to the Northeast Corridor and other US metro several alternatives remain in play, an investment areas, Hartford-Springfield has undergone in the $4 billion range would cut nearly an hour a prolonged period of low rail use and low off the Springfield-Boston trip, enable at least overall rail/transit use--both in general and 10 round trips per day, and provide comfort and among those who work in information, finance, reliability. In Boston, the train would stop not only and professional services jobs. These are the at South Station, with its instant connections to jobs that are particularly attracted to rail/transit the Red and Silver Lines and much of downtown connectivity elsewhere in the Northeast. accessible on foot, but at the key destinations 3. A structural shortfall. Since 1990, annual of Back Bay, the Longwood Medical Area job growth in Metro Hartford-Springfield (Lansdowne Station), and the future multimodal has lagged far behind that of the Northeast hub at West Station.2 Corridor as a whole, representing about Together, the East-West Line and the completed 130,000 jobs not created. Job growth has Hartford Line would reconstitute a 21st century been particularly weak in the key sectors version of the old Inland Route—regular train of information, finance, and professional service from Boston to New York via Worcester, services, accompanied by aging housing Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven—which the stock, slow housing construction, and slow region has lacked for decades. It would create a population and wage growth. In short, Metro regional network of great versatility and economic Hartford-Springfield has fallen structurally potential, combining intercity service all along the behind the rest of the Northeast Corridor. corridor with high-frequency, transit-like. service in the Hartford-Springfield core.3 The key findings of The Economic Opportunity this study may be summarized as follows. 4. Missing growth sector jobs. Conservatively, some 20,000 to 40,000 jobs in information, Decades of Disinvestment finance, and professional services are 1. A distinct and consequential region. “missing” from Metro Hartford-Springfield Metro Hartford-Springfield is a distinct and due to the lack of regional and intercity rail consequential economic region, with a connectivity. With rail connectivity restored, population of 1.6 million, a GDP of $120 billion, these jobs, which have fueled growth 20 colleges and universities, two historic elsewhere in the Northeast, can be attracted downtowns, and New England’s second over time. largest airport. As a metro area, it would 5. Transit-oriented development. Between rank among the 40 largest in the US. Nearby New Haven and Worcester, the Inland Route Worcester and New Haven have combined rail improvements would serve 16 existing metro populations of 1.8 million. Yet the and future stations. Recent and planned Hartford-Springfield economy is isolated and development in these station areas suggests lagging. a strong market of interconnected residential 2. A gap in the rail/transit network. Metro communities, employment centers, and public Hartford-Springfield lost most of its intercity destinations. A capacity analysis reveals an rail service, starting in the 1970s. Compared aggregate station area potential of about 20 Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 2
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 million square feet of commercial development economy in response to climate change, and a and 30,000 housing units gravitation to smaller, well-connected cities in response to COVID-19—would reinforce and 6. Economic benefits far in excess of costs. amplify the outcomes projected in this report.4 Together, these two outcomes—the gradual attraction of 20,000-40,000 “missing” Context: A Region Structurally professional service jobs and the construction Behind of station-area development—account for an estimated $47 to $84 billion in directly This study defines Metro Hartford-Springfield as generated regional GDP over 30 years, a region of three contiguous counties: Hartford including $27 to $48 billion in wages. An County in Connecticut, and Hampden and additional $15 to $21 billion of indirect and Hampshire Counties in Massachusetts.5 As shown induced GDP is estimated as well in Figure 1, Metro Hartford-Springfield is part of the Northeast Corridor (NEC) served by Amtrak The compactness of Southern New England and several regional rail providers, as well as creates a natural market for regional and intercity the larger northeast mega-region stretching from rail. Two emerging trends--a decarbonizing FIGURE 1 Total jobs index Figure (1980 =2:100, Totalpercent Jobs Index (1980 growth = baseline) over 100), Percent Growth Over Baseline 160 150 Corridor excluding Boston, D.C., N.Y.C. counties Northeast Corridor 140 Hartford, Hampden, Hampshire 130 120 110 100 90 80 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘18 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2020 SOURCE: BEA, 2020 Figure 3: Growth Comparison (Compound Annual growth Rate, 2010-2019) Region GRP Population Jobs Wages Metro Hartford-Springfield 2.9% 0.04% 0.83% 2.08% Northeast Corridor 4.0% 0.38% 1.43% 2.34% Northeast Megaregion 3.8% 0.42% 1.29% 2.29% Source: EMSI, 2020 Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 3
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 metropolitan Boston to metropolitan Washington oriented development as a strategy for new DC with over 50 million residents. A core finding is infill housing. that, when compared to the rest of the Northeast • As shown in Figure 3, the net result is low Corridor, Metro Hartford-Springfield has fallen growth, not only in jobs but in Gross Regional significantly behind in economic performance. Product, population, and wages—a structurally • Compared to job growth in the Northeast lagging regional economy compared to the Corridor as a whole (1.1% annually) since larger Northeast. 1990, Metro Hartford-Springfield has followed a slower growth trajectory (0.6% annual job Connectivity: Transit, Regional growth); representing about 130,000 jobs not Rail, Intercity Rail created across Metro Hartford-Springfield Is the gap in economic performance and since 1990. This gap is illustrated in Figure 2. trajectory related to rail service? A majority of • In contrast with peer metro regions (NEC and key NEC regional markets benefit economically nationally), and despite established strength from a combination of traditional public transit in insurance and related service industries, (buses and, in major metropolitan centers, rapid Metro Hartford-Springfield is defined by weak transit); commuter rail (or as it is increasingly job creation across information, finance, and called, regional rail) in the Boston, New York, professional services (including insurance, in Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington which employment has actually declined). metropolitan areas; and intercity rail linking key NEC cities. For brevity and consistency, • Constrained employment growth goes hand- the combination of local bus or rapid transit, in-hand with an abundance of older housing commuter or regional rail, and intercity rail is stock compared to NEC averages and referred to in this study as “rail/transit”. significantly slower pace of new residential construction since 2010. The lack of new The Metro Hartford-Springfield region suffered a housing construction, as well as constraints degradation of passenger rail service in the 1970s created by “missing middle” housing, create and 1980s, coincident with its regional economic a drag on workforce availability and is one decline. Metro Hartford-Springfield was hurt, like reason other cities have embraced transit other parts of the Northeast Corridor, by long-term decline and disinvestment in general and by the recession of 1988-90 in particular, and then by The absence of robust, the Great Recession of 2008. An asset that might have helped the region recover and diversify well-used rail service (and that did help other NEC cities recover) was missing—rail connectivity. constitutes a major Hartford and Springfield stand out as mid-sized cities with regional rail service only at the “starter” gap in the region’s level and minimal, low-performance intercity service. The Hartford Line opened in 2018; its transportation network. strong start, although overshadowed by the Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 4
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Figure 4: Comparative Rail/Transit Use Industry Sector Metro Hartford- NEC Transit Ridership Shares Springfield Growth Growth Growth Growth Metro US NEC Since Since Since Since H-S Average 2000 2010 2000 2010 Ag, Const, Mfg, Wholesale, -0.8% 0.4% -0.4% 0.3% 1.6% 2.7% 15.6% Transportation, Utilities Information, Finance, 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 2.7% 7.7% 29.4% Professional Services Education and Healthcare 1.4% 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 2.6% 4.7% 20.6% Retail Trade 0.1% -0.3% 0.4% -0.1% 4.2% 4.5% 21.5% Other Services 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.0% 4.9% 22.9% Arts, Entertainment 1.4% 0.3% 2.2% 1.4% 6.9% 7.0% 29.3% Local, State, Federal -0.4% -0.2% 0.4% -0.2% 1.3% 5.1% 22.0% Government Source: US Census ACS, 2019; EMSI pandemic, provides an encouraging preview of • Information, finance, and professional this market’s potential. services constitute key growth sectors in the Northeast Corridor and mega-region. Two clear The absence of robust, well-used rail service comparisons are evident in Figure 4. First, as constitutes a major gap in the region’s noted previously, job growth in these sectors, transportation network. Connections are while robust in the Northeast Corridor as a missing—not only to Boston and New York but whole, has been minimal in Metro Hartford- to the regional hub cities of Massachusetts and Springfield. Equally important is the difference Connecticut and to the local transit systems in how these workers commute to their jobs. operated by the Connecticut Department of In the NEC, 30% of workers in these sectors Transportation (CTDOT) and the Pioneer Valley rely on rail/transit, and the US average is 7.7%. Transit Authority (PVTA). Local bus ridership But in the Hartford-Springfield region, only generated by regional rail connections is minimal 2.7% of workers in information, finance, and in these two systems. professional services rely on rail/transit. Put • US Census journey to work data highlight the simply, these sectors are fueling job growth challenge. Between 2000 and 2016, while a in the Northeast Corridor, are attracted to growing share of NEC workers were using rail/ markets with strong rail/transit systems, and transit (an increase from about 20% to 23%), display high rail/transit mode shares. In Metro Metro Hartford-Springfield worker transit use Hartford-Springfield, these same sectors are remained limited to available CTDOT and not growing, and their existing workforces use PVTA bus service and decreased from 3.1% to rail/transit at strikingly low levels. 2.8% over the same period. Even if we exclude • While economic underperformance in the New York City (with its uniquely high rail/transit Hartford-Springfield region has a number mode share), rail/transit ridership across the of causes, our analysis found that missing NEC remains significantly higher (above 12%) regional rail access has led to a jobs gap in than in the Hartford-Springfield region.6 the key growth sectors of Information, Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 5
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 finance, and professional services. This via rail/transit, only 12% of low-income Hartford- gap is estimated at between 20,000 and Springfield area commuters utilize rail/transit. 40,000 positions that should have located Lower income residents are less able to access (or stayed) in the Metro Hartford-Springfield regional opportunity afforded to other NEC region since 1990 but didn’t, due to limited residents, linked to faster commutes and higher regional rail access. This finding rests on a wages. There is a regional employment market statistical analysis of US counties and metro of more than 2.5 million jobs within 50 miles of areas, focused on the relationship between Hartford and Springfield, but for area residents, the creation of jobs in the relevant sectors rail access to those jobs remains very limited. and levels of regional rail/transit use, including Rail/transit not only helps workers get to jobs; whether regional or commuter rail is present.7 it makes their lives more affordable in general. When white-collar industry is concentrated in Data from the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey places with good regional rail service, this creates confirm that households with access to rail/ an opportunity for higher-paid “choice riders” as transit can reduce their aggregate transportation well as transit-dependent workers in those same spending, freeing up dollars for housing, food, industries to commute by train. This is a locational and entertainment. incentive that Hartford-Springfield currently lacks. The Regional Market: A Series The study also reveals glaring equity impacts of Concentric Circles associated with limited regional rail/transit connectivity. While more than 33% of NEC From the perspective of Metro Hartford- residents under the federal poverty line commute Springfield, the rail market to be served by the proposed Hartford Line and East-West Figure 5: A Market of Concentric Circles improvements can be seen as three concentric circles: • The “bull’s-eye” of Hartford, Springfield, and their shared resource, Bradley International Airport; GREENFIELD WORCESTER • Worcester and New Haven—major regional METRO SPRINGFIELD BOSTON centers “one ring out” on the historic PITTSFIELD Inland Route; BRADLEY • Metropolitan Boston and New York. HARTFORD Hartford-Bradley-Springfield. Together, the two cities and their immediate hinterland NEW HAVEN represent a distinct and consequential METRO NEW economic location in the Northeast Corridor. YORK Metro Hartford-Springfield’s economic attributes include a combined population of 1.6 million, a combined Gross Domestic Product of $120 Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 6
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 billion, 20 colleges and universities, two historic future congestion. Some workers may choose to downtowns 25 miles apart on I-91, and New commute from Metro Hartford-Springfield to the England’s second-largest international airport. two great metropolitan areas, especially if their Its flat job growth notwithstanding, Metro Hartford- post-pandemic work environment is a hybrid one Springfield would rank among the top 40 US in which physical trips to the workplace are no Metropolitan Statistical Areas in total employment. longer daily. Metro Hartford-Springfield has an opportunity to emerge not merely as a bedroom In 2019, on the eve of the pandemic, Bradley community but as an economic place in its own International Airport handled seven million right, generating rail trips as both an origin and passengers, and its owner/operator, the a destination. Connecticut Airport Authority, was planning for ten million. Bradley is located halfway between An enhanced Hartford Line providing more Springfield and Hartford, barely 12 miles from frequent, more reliable all-day regional service each downtown. While Bradley’s master plan would connect Metro Hartford-Springfield’s encourages increased use of transit and rail by labor markets, businesses, and innovators to passengers and airport workers, transit/rail also each other. With the two Union Stations and has a key role to play with respect to airport- intermediate stops at Windsor, Windsor Locks/ related economic development. The potential for Bradley, and Enfield, high-performance regional industrial and commercial growth at Bradley, and rail would act as a bi-directional transit spine, downtown transit-oriented development (TOD) in helping to unify this compact regional market. Windsor Locks, its “front door” and rail gateway, New Haven and Worcester. With frequent, high- is discussed below. performance service along a modernized Inland Metro Hartford-Springfield is roughly equidistant Route, Worcester—New England’s second largest from New York and Boston—close enough at city—would become more accessible not only 80-120 miles to lie in both spheres of influence, to Springfield, but to Hartford, New Haven, and but distant enough to need frequent, reliable New York City as well. New Haven would be close passenger connectivity that does not rely not only to Hartford, but to Springfield. There are exclusively on automobiles, given current and significant TOD opportunities, existing and planned, The economic benefits of high-performance rail service include labor market connectivity; business connections for innovation and other synergies; and the enhancement of tourism, entertainment, cultural, and other non-work destination activities. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 7
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 in the Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, and New The economic benefits of high-performance Haven station areas, with easily envisioned rail service include labor market connectivity; synergies among them. business connections for innovation and other synergies; and the enhancement of tourism, The markets “one ring out” from the Hartford- entertainment, cultural, and other non-work Bradley-Springfield core also include the Pioneer destination activities. What fuels these benefits Valley north of Springfield, where pilot rail service is not simply mitigation of future highway currently reaches Holyoke, Northampton, and congestion, but the need to decarbonize the Greenfield.8 These communities—and their economy, which will place a premium on regional several institutions of higher learning—are proximity and compactness. Moreover, one of the integral to the “Knowledge Corridor” branding that commonly anticipated post-COVID adjustments is Connecticut and Massachusetts have sought to a gravitation to smaller, well-connected cities. associate with the Hartford Line. The proposed Hartford Line improvements would lay the If you can commute easily between Hartford and foundation for improved infrastructure and service Springfield, or live in Windsor Locks and work in extending past Springfield. Worcester, or live in Holyoke and work in Hartford Figure 6: Station Area TOD Capacity, One-Mile Radius Commercial square footage Housing Units Jobs WORCESTER UNION STATION 2,400,000 4,500 4,000 SPRINGFIELD UNION STATION 5,000,000 9,300 8,300 BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS PALMER 650,000 1,800 1,100 ENFIELD 40,000 100 100 NEW WINDSOR LOCKS 1,182,000 3,200 2,000 WEST HARTFORD WINDSOR 77,500 200 100 827,000 2,300 1,400 HARTFORD UNION STATION 2,400,000 4,500 4,000 NEWINGTON 750,000 2,000 1,200 BERLIN 1,470,000 4,000 2,400 CONNECTICUT HAMDEN/NORTH HAVEN MERIDEN 172,000 500 300 900,000 2,500 1,500 WALLINGFORD 487,000 1,300 800 NEW HAVEN STATION/STATE ST. 3,400,000 6,300 5,700 Existing stations NEW YORK Proposed stations Sub-total, existing stations 16,600,000 33,800 27,600 Sub-total, proposed stations 3,200,000 8,700 5,300 GRAND TOTAL 19,800,000 42,500 32,900 Source: AECOM Analysis, based on CoStar, Urban Footprint, MassINC Transformative TOD Analysis SOURCE: URBAN FOOTPRINT, COSTAR, AECOM ANALYSIS Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 8
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 or New Haven; or if you can run a business in That said, station area development is critical. Springfield and routinely make day trips to New The station area TOD opportunity lies in both jobs York or Stamford or Boston; or if your business at and housing, destinations and origins, particularly Bradley International Airport can attract workers with the labor market connectivity achievable from Wallingford and Palmer—all by train, without through frequent rail service. The Hartford- the expense of car ownership or the future Springfield region has an aging housing stock roadway congestion that will come with growth— and sluggish residential construction, relative to that’s a competitive advantage for the region. the NEC as a whole; this is both a cause and a symptom of weak employment growth. Residential Development Nurtured by TOD has a key role to play. Passenger Rail In assessing the TOD potential of a station area, For regional and intercity rail, the traditionally four factors come into play: connectivity, physical defined station areas are the tip of the iceberg. capacity, market fundamentals, and jurisdictional Development linked to passenger rail has a support. The quantitative analysis undertaken catchment area much larger than a quarter- for this study and summarized in Figure 6 is a or half-mile “walkshed”; people drive to regional rail station-by-station estimate of buildout capacity stations or get there by bus, by bicycle, within a one-mile radius, based on land availability by employer shuttle or district shuttle. Moreover, the but adjusted to reflect market fundamentals economic impact of connectivity inside and outside (existing population and employment density, the region is felt beyond individual development rent levels, recent development activity) and our projects or even development districts. understanding of station-specific connectivity and jurisdictional support. It relies on data providers including CoStar and Urban Footprint, as well The station area TOD as past studies, including a MassINC 2018 effort focused on the promise and potential of opportunity lies in transformative TOD in Massachusetts’ Gateway Cities, which include Springfield and Worcester.9 both jobs and housing, The projection of a robust future TOD capacity destinations and is consistent with real-world planning and development in the affected station areas. The origins, particularly next few pages provide a brief summary of the TOD “story” in the four major Inland Route cities. with the labor market Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven are legacy rail cities, each with a historic Union connectivity achievable Station around which regional and intercity mobility and station area land use were organized. through frequent Rather than the one-mile radius used for our statistical capacity analysis, these narratives, rail service. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 9
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 each with a map showing recent developments In recent years, a wave of reinvestment has and key future opportunities, focus on the half- occurred within the station’s walkshed, including mile closest to the station. two transformative, district-scale, public-private initiatives. Worcester Commons, a failed Worcester downtown shopping mall, is being redeveloped as the multi-building, mixed-use City Square. Worcester has gained frequent regional rail And the Canal District, an old industrial area service to Boston, with 16 round trips each south of the station, is reemerging as a mixed-use weekday (pre-COVID) plus the daily Amtrak neighborhood anchored by Polar Park, the new Lakeshore Limited in each direction. The home of the Boston Red Sox’ top minor-league Worcester Line is the second busiest in the affiliate. Both efforts have been supported by the MBTA commuter rail system, with about 9,300 state’s TOD-focused MassWorks infrastructure people making the round trip each weekday— grant program, and City Square relied on a significant increase in ridership since 2012. Massachusetts’s version of tax increment About 1,300 people board daily in Worcester, financing11. There have been several loft-style including some “reverse” commuters for whom apartment developments, including adaptive reuse Worcester is a work destination.10 The MBTA and new construction. One loft building—the Edge has made track and service improvements and at Union Station—offers off-campus apartments is planning a third track project to improve for Worcester’s nine colleges. Downtown has also frequency and reliability by eliminating freight seen development of hotels, a multiuse center for conflicts. Like Springfield, Hartford, and New Quinsigamond Community College (“20 Franklin”), Haven, Worcester is an “eds and meds” city, and an in-town market.12 with 12 colleges and universities in the area, including the University of Massachusetts Medical In its 2018 study of the potential for transformative Campus and its associated biotech research park, TOD in Massachusetts’ Gateway Cities, MassINC and several hospitals. included Worcester as one of four intensive case studies. Through an analysis of vacant and Worcester Union Station is on the eastern underutilized property, MassINC estimated that edge of downtown and is a regional hub for rail, with an aggressive public strategy and optimal the Worcester Regional Transit Authority bus buildout, Union Station’s half-mile walkshed could network, and intercity bus carriers. The station’s accommodate nearly 24,000 net new residents potential TOD area is effectively cut in half by (a nine-fold increase at that time) and nearly 7,000 I-290, with established residential and institutional net new jobs (a one-third increase), achieving neighborhoods and an intermodal freight yard to a model TOD balance of 50% population, its east. But the districts to the west, north, and 50% jobs.13 south of Union Station have attracted significant reinvestment. The DCU Center (Worcester’s Springfield hockey, basketball, and concert venue) preceded the restoration of rail service but has become The revitalization of Downtown Springfield is a an important rail destination. St. Vincent’s work in progress. A cornerstone achievement is Hospital, opened in 2000, is the station’s major the restoration of Union Station itself. Located on institutional neighbor. Main Street at the northern end of downtown, the Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 10
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Figure 7: Worcester Union Station Area TOD Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes. station reopened in 2017—a $100 million public- Congressional delegation, is not only a catalyst private investment that includes the corporate project for downtown, but an opportunity for robust headquarters of Peter Pan Bus Lines, the offices rail-to-transit connections in the regional labor of a major local architectural firm, and retail for market. passengers and the general public. The bus A revived Union Station has already led to the terminal is the hub not only for Peter Pan, but conversion of two historic buildings to residential for the Pioneer Valley Transit Authority’s bus lofts and the proposed conversion of a third transit system. The gap in the regional mobility immediately east of the station, and two loft network was embodied by the decades-long developments along nearby Chestnut Street. The abandonment of Union Station. Its renewal, with new headquarters for Way Finders, a regional coordinated support of the city, state, PVTA, and Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 11
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Figure 8: Springfield Union Station Area TOD Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes. housing agency and the planned restoration of the (in the face of the pandemic) has yet to occur. The historic Paramount Theatre and Massasoit Hotel City is advancing a coordinated strategy for the are in properties across Main Street from the “impact district” encompassing the Mass Mutual station complex. Center, MGM Springfield, historic Court Square, and the streets and blocks woven through them.14 A half-mile south of Union Station, the $950 The casino, in addition to its on-site hotel, million MGM Springfield Casino opened in is planning a boutique hotel in the adjoining 2018. Designed to generate foot traffic on Main historic building at State and Main Streets. Street, the casino is diagonally across the street Residential loft development has begun, and from MassMutual Center, Springfield’s hockey, additional such projects are being promoted basketball, concert, and convention venue. by the City, including the adaptive reuse of the Although the casino attracted 10,000 visitors per historic Court Square hotel. day before COVID-19, the desired catalytic effect Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 12
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Springfield’s four downtown parks have been walking distance; a new neighborhood, Downtown renovated, enhancing a pedestrian network North, is developing around the ballpark. The that connects Union Station to other parts of Convention Center complex and the University downtown. This includes the restoration of of Connecticut Hartford Campus, one of nine Pynchon Plaza, the pedestrian link between the colleges and universities in Metro Hartford, are in MGM/MassMutual Center district and Springfield’s the downtown, just outside Union Station’s half- cultural hub, the Museums Quadrangle. mile radius. Springfield’s other regional destinations—the Three major revitalization strategies—all Basketball Hall of Fame and several colleges consistent with the principle of dense, walkable and universities—are beyond the Union TOD—are being pursued. One is to introduce Station walkshed but still in the core of Greater a significant amount of multifamily housing to Springfield, accessible by train and local last- enliven the downtown and create a greater mile connections. balance between jobs and housing. The Capital In its 2018 Transformative TOD study, MassINC Region Development Authority (CRDA), in estimated that the Springfield Union Station area partnership with the City of Hartford and other could accommodate 13,000 net new residents agencies, has spearheaded an initiative to create (more than quadrupling its population) and nearly 2,000 downtown units through new construction 3,000 net new jobs (a 20% increase), achieving and adaptive reuse. Since 2013, that initial goal a 50-50 balance of population and employment.15 has been met; the 17 residential projects shown in MassINC attributes nearly half of this station- Figure 9 represent nearly 1,800 units completed, area buildout capacity to “higher occupancy”— under construction, or financed.17 Most of these reinvestment in parcels that, while not vacant, developments fall within a half-mile of Union have significantly underutilized building stock Station, and several are in the station’s immediate or extensive surface parking. This condition foreground in the blocks framed by Asylum, Allyn, is especially evident in the blocks between High, and Ann Ucello Streets. the station and I-291 (labeled the “Station A second strategy is iQuilt, a public-private Foreground” in Figure 8) and the “TDI District” partnership to enhance and interconnect (where the state’s Transformative Development Downtown Hartford’s parks, cultural institutions, Initiative for Springfield is focused).16 and streetscape. Consisting of both physical investments and institutional communication and Hartford programming, iQuilt includes short, medium, and Union Station is on the western edge of long-term elements. Downtown Hartford. Its half-mile walkshed The third strategy is to reknit the larger downtown, contains the State Capitol, office buildings, which is split by the aging, deteriorating I-84 the historic downtown core, a critical mass viaduct and the adjoining railroad tracks—a of civic and cultural institutions, and Bushnell barrier to walkable, transit-oriented investment. Park, Hartford’s central open space. Both the A decade-long planning effort concluded that the XL Center (Hartford’s hockey, basketball, and viaduct should be replaced, either partly or fully concert venue) and Dunkin Donuts Park (its underground, in the next two decades. Either minor league baseball field) are within short alternative would require realigning the railroad Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 13
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Figure 9: Hartford Union Station Area TOD Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes. tracks a short distance to the west and creating now finds itself at the intersection of a half a new Union Station. The opportunity, illustrated dozen major city-building initiatives. One is the in the city-state Capital Gateway Concept Plan, remaking of the station itself. In 2020, the state includes restoring the truncated street grid, and City agreed to collaborate on a TOD-driven creating several large development parcels, and partnership for Union Station and its adjacent extending the station’s TOD footprint west, north, properties, including mixed-use development, and south.18 new retail, an enhanced multimodal rail/bus hub, and a commuter park-and-ride solution New Haven consistent with that vision.19 Directly across the street, the City hopes to realize a privately New Haven has two train stations in the urban developed, mixed-income residential community core, barely a half-mile apart. Union Station, of several hundred units on the site of the isolated from the urban fabric for decades, demolished Church Street South apartments. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 14
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Further west, but still in the walkshed of Union and unlock 10 acres of developable land at the Station, is Parkside Crossing, a multi-phase, convergence of downtown, Yale-New Haven mixed-income development of 600 units. Hospital, and the Hill neighborhood. Reclaiming this land will create dense, walkable new Union Station is also adjacent to Downtown development in the station walkshed. Immediately Crossing, the state initiative to convert the east of the Downtown Crossing alignment is the expressway portion of Route 34 into an urban site of the demolished New Haven Coliseum, boulevard, restore the interrupted street grid, Figure 10: New Haven Station Area TOD Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 15
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 now a 4.5-acre parking lot, where “275 South (Most of this land lies outside the one-mile radius Orange”—a dense, mixed-use, transit-oriented covered by this study’s TOD capacity analysis, development including 500 apartments— reinforcing that for regional rail, even a mile is is planned. a conservative gauge of a station’s potential zone of influence.) The non-profit Bradley Across the railyard from Union Station is Long Development League, a consortium of the four Wharf, where plans call for continued industrial towns and leading businesses, markets these use as well as new commercial, residential, and opportunities; since 2010, state law has offered tourism opportunities. With improved pedestrian corporate excise and local property tax incentives connections and an effective all-day shuttle, this to manufacturing, research and development, emerging district would become part of the Union information services, and other airport-related Station district.20 businesses that invest in the Development Zone.23 State Street, by contrast, is a walk-in station Windsor Locks is Bradley’s front door. The Town sandwiched between the historic downtown has undertaken a downtown TOD initiative, core and the Wooster Square neighborhood. It organized around the state’s commitment to serves the existing transit-supportive land use replace and relocate the Hartford Line station fabric as well as new infill development, including to a strategic Main Street riverfront site. A TOD two apartment projects, immediately adjacent, study prepared for the Town in 2013 identified a with over 500 units. State Street is also within market for several hundred units of multi-family walking distance of Downtown Crossing and just housing and up to 88,000 square feet of new a quarter-mile from the planned Coliseum site commercial space. In 2020, the Town began redevelopment.21 Together, the combined station seeking a development partner for a mixed-use areas include multifamily developments that are site alongside the new station.24 recently completed, under construction, or in the pipeline totaling nearly 2,000 units.22 The Town and the Connecticut Airport Authority are planning a robust shuttle service to connect Other Corridor Communities the new Windsor Locks Station to the Bradley terminals. A broader “district shuttle”, solving the This TOD narrative is rounded out with a look at first-mile/last-mile connection between the station four of the smaller corridor communities: Windsor and the Airport Development Zone, would make Locks (in its own right and as the “last-mile” Bradley’s long-term economic development rail- gateway to Bradley International Airport), Meriden, accessible to the Hartford-Springfield core as West Hartford, and Palmer. well as other Inland Route and Knowledge Bradley International Airport and Windsor Corridor markets. Locks. The state-enabled Bradley Airport Meriden. Meriden, a city of 60,000 located Development Zone, located in the towns of halfway between Hartford and New Haven, is a Windsor Locks, Windsor, Suffield, and East historic center of manufacturing and industrial Granby, contains 2000 acres of developable land, design. It is an existing stop on the Hartford Line with an estimated net new buildout capacity of 20 and an example of the potential for TOD in smaller million square feet of industrial and commercial rail communities. The City of Meriden, with state space—nearly double the existing inventory. support, embarked on a multi-faceted TOD Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 16
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 strategy over the last decade, including an on- The TOD capacity analysis prepared for this study going real estate market analysis, TOD-friendly suggests that West Hartford and the future station zoning, and the solicitation of developers for key just to its south in Newington could accommodate city-owned sites. substantial mixed-use development, at a scale appropriate to their town center contexts. The Two catalytic public investments were undertaken: West Hartford housing authority has already Meriden’s new train station and, directly across advanced two multifamily projects in the combined the street, the conversion of a 14-acre brownfield Hartford Line/BRT corridor; the larger, at 616 New property into a central park known as Meriden Park Avenue, adjoins a CTfastrak station and is Green. Each of these projects included private within walking distance of the future train station.26 residential development, and several additional multifamily projects have been developed in the Palmer. Palmer, Massachusetts, is the only immediate vicinity of the station. In all, nearly 400 proposed station stop on the East-West Rail line units have been developed, along with ground- between Springfield and Worcester. A historic level retail and public amenities organized around industrial community known as “the Town of the Green and the train station. The TOD capacity Seven Railroads”, Palmer is still a rail crossroads, analysis undertaken for this study suggests where the CSX and Central Vermont intersect in that Meriden’s station area could accommodate Depot Village. Both lines are busy freight carriers, several hundred units more, as well as a modest and Amtrak’s Lakeshore Limited passes through increment of commercial space. (but does not stop) on the CSX track. Union Station, an H. H. Richardson original building, West Hartford. West Hartford is one of the five lives on as a restaurant and landmark. proposed new stations on the Hartford Line, along with Newington, Enfield, North Haven, and While Depot Village is largely built out at the Hampden. West Hartford has three stops on the scale of a small town center, there is ample existing CTfastrak bus rapid transit line(BRT); underutilized land available for TOD. Palmer’s the one at the strategic intersection of Flatbush Community Plan identifies Depot Village, as well Avenue and New Park Avenue is the location of as an expanse of undeveloped woodland along the future rail station. This station area straddles Route 32 just north of the village, as strategic the boundary between West Hartford and development sites.27 The Town commissioned Hartford; part of the station site and much of the a TOD study in 2017, and the University of potential development are on the Hartford side. Massachusetts Center for Economic Development has undertaken a separate study, citing both the The City of Hartford, the Town of West TOD potential and regional mobility needs as Hartford, and CRCOG have been planning justifications for a passenger station.28 for transformative TOD, with an eye toward the expansive areas of low-density industrial, Palmer’s location in the regional mobility network retail, and auto-oriented uses in the immediate amplifies its TOD potential, from a commercial/ station area.25 This pattern is replicated around industrial as well as a residential standpoint. other existing and proposed suburban stations, Depot Village adjoins the only Massachusetts particularly those between Hartford and Turnpike exit in a 24-mile stretch, and three New Haven. regional highways—Routes 20, 32, and 181— Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 17
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 intersect here. Palmer is the gateway to a 21-town Households, businesses, and governments are area that includes the University of Massachusetts connected in a complex web of interdependent at Amherst. Developable land is inexpensive relationships based on producing, selling, by regional standards, and public policy favors purchasing, and taxing goods and services. An passenger rail service and an economic initial change in one of these creates ripple effects development strategy associated with it. through the others. Initial impacts tend to create revenues at other firms and employment for Economic Impacts, Benefits, residents and associated income, as well as tax and Costs revenues to state and local governments referred to as fiscal impacts. Figure 11 summarizes Economic and fiscal impacts can be described anticipated direct costs associated with planned as the sum of economic activity within a defined rail improvements. While costs are presented in geographic region resulting from an initial change 2020 dollars, the effort presumes that required in the economy. In concept, initial changes construction would unfold over a five- to ten-year spur subsequent indirect and induced activities. future period. Figure 11: Estimated Construction Costs for Regional Rail Improvements Source: AECOM Analysis; CTDOT; MassDOT Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 18
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 In the context of these estimated costs, Figure 12 In terms of direct benefits (in 2020 dollars), while summarizes anticipated direct benefits associated proposed infrastructure costs ($6.7 to $9.7 billion) with the proposed rail infrastructure investment, are consequential, anticipated economic benefits specifically: are dramatic, with: • Attraction of new jobs in the information, • between $47 billion and $84 billion in finance, and professional services sectors regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across the Metro Hartford-Springfield region. linked to new jobs in professional services as Reflective of a five- to ten-year rail construction well as jobs supported by TOD construction period, the projected creation of 20,000 to investment; and 40,000 new jobs will be incremental, achieved • fiscal benefits payable to local and state over a 30 year future period. While jobs are government in Connecticut and Massachusetts shown for Year 30, wage and output benefits estimated at between $3.8 billion and $5.4 are presented as 30-year cumulative totals. billion over 30 years (assuming present value at • Construction of future transit oriented current tax rates). residential and commercial development, In addition to direct benefits, we have also based on the cumulative, station-by-station estimated (in Figure 13) the broader indirect TOD capacity estimate shown previously. The and induced economic benefits, using input/ economic impact of this projected construction output multipliers from EMSI.29 Indirect impacts reflects detailed assumptions regarding floor have been estimated for TOD development area ratios and construction costs, as outlined and regional jobs in information, finance, and in the main report. While costs are presented in professional services, across Connecticut and 2020 dollars, unit absorption is expected over Massachusetts. By Year 30, the annual GDP a 30 year forecast period. Construction period attributable to this indirect and induced economic jobs are presented as full-time equivalents. activity is estimated to be in the range of $15 billion to $21 billion. The proposed rail improvements would bring 20,000 to 40,000 professional services jobs, extensive transit-oriented development, and $47 to $84 billion in new regional GDP over 30 years. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 19
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Figure 12: Estimated Direct Benefits Due to Regional Rail Improvements, Current $US 2020 Direct Benefits, Present Value Conservative Aggressive Direct Economic New Regional Jobs, 30 Years 20,000 40,000 Benefits, New Regional Cumulative New Wages, 30 Years $20,094,000,000 $40,187,000,000 Jobs, Linked to Transit Improvements Cumulative New Regional GDP, 30 Years $35,428,000,000 $70,856,000,000 Transit Oriented TOD Construction Jobs (Full-Time 97,000 115,000 Development New Equivalent) Construction Investment, Cumulative Construction Wages $6,799,000,000 $7,463,000,000 Present Value Cumulative Construction Investment $11,332,000,000 $13,422,000,000 Fiscal Implications Cumulative Property Taxes, 30 Years $2,770,000,000 $3,290,000,000 Cumulative Income Taxes, 30 Years $1,055,000,000 $2,110,000,000 Total Fiscal Benefits $3,825,000,000 $5,400,000,000 Total Benefits, New Professional Services Jobs 20,000 40,000 Cumulative, 30 Years New Construction Jobs 97,000 115,000 New Regional GDP $46,760,000,000 $84,278,000,000 New Fiscal Benefits $3,825,000,000 $5,400,000,000 Source: AECOM Analysis Figure 13: Estimated Indirect / Induced Benefits Due to Regional Rail Improvements, Current USD Indirect and Induced Benefits Conservative Aggressive Indirect / Induced Jobs, Year 30 32,000 63,000 Economic Benefits, New Total Wages, Year 30, Present Value $1,621,000,000 $3,242,000,000 Regional Jobs, Linked to Transit Improvements Regional GDP, Year 3, Present Value $3,521,000,000 $7,041,000,000 Transit Oriented Jobs, Year 30 133,000 158,000 Development New Total Wages, Year 30, Present Value $5,268,000,000 $6,240,000,000 Construction Investment, Present Value Regional GDP, Year 3, Present Value $11,628,000,000 $13,772,000,000 Total Benefits, Year 30 Jobs, Year 30 165,000 221,000 Total Wages, Year 30, Present Value $6,889,000,000 $9,482,000,000 Regional GDP, Year 30, Present Value $15,149,000,000 $20,813,000,000 Source: AECOM Analysis, EMSI Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 20
Endnotes April 2021 Endnotes 5. As defined by the US Census, the Hartford and Springfield metropolitan areas include 1. The Hartford Line currently provides 16 parts of seven counties, extending from the weekday round trips between New Haven and Vermont border to Long Island Sound. For Hartford, 11 of which continue to Springfield. purposes of this report, the three core counties The 16 trips are a total, comprising eight (Hartford, Hampden, and Hampshire) better operated by the Connecticut Department reflect the potential influence of the proposed of Transportation and eight by Amtrak, at rail improvements. identical prices and with interchangeable ticketing. The bi-state Hartford Line enabled 6. Data are from the Census’ American more frequent, reliable, and speedy service; Communities Survey (ACS) data series and Amtrak agreed to add two trips to its schedule represent a combination of bud, subway, and to honor the Hartford Line regional rail regional rail, and intercity rail. tickets. 7. The analysis estimates 22,000 jobs at the 2. Alternatives 4 and 4/5 have preliminary conservative end of the scale; that number is estimated costs of $3.9 and $4.6 billion, rounded down to 20,000. respectively; they would reduce the 8. The Valley Flyer runs from New Haven to Springfield-Boston trip time, with intermediate Greenfield; the Vermonter from New York to stops, to an hour 40 minutes and an hour 30 St. Albans, VT. Both are operated by Amtrak minutes. See the MassDOT East-West Rail in partnership with the affected states; as of Feasibility Study (January 2021), East-West 2021, they amount to three daily trains in each Passenger Rail Study - Final Report - Chapter direction. 1 - Executive Summary (mass.gov). 9. Massachusetts Institute for a New 3. See the Inland Route analysis in the 2016 Commonwealth (MassINC), Daniel Hodge Northern New England Intercity Rail Initiative and Ben Forman, The Promise and Potential (NNERI) study, NNEIRI Study Summary of Transformative TOD in Gateway Cities; (mass.gov). https://2gaiae1lifzt2tsfgr2vil6c-wpengine. 4. As noted in the East-West Rail Study Final netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ Report released by MassDOT in January TTOD-Report.pdf. 2021, the existing ridership demand modeling 10. See https://www.mass.gov/lists/2018- analysis does not (and cannot) capture the commuter-rail-counts; counts are from 2018, potentially transformative effect of intercity and the last full pre-COVID year. regional rail as part of an integrated regional development agenda. A long-term ridership 11. For MassWorks, see http://www.mapc. analysis under such a scenario is beyond the org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MWIP_ scope of this report as well, but we can begin Presentation-2017.pdf. This program was to frame the regional growth implications of also used to provide state support for the enhanced rail connectivity. restoration of Springfield Union Station, described below. The state’s tax increment Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 21
Endnotes April 2021 program for infrastructure finance is District I-84 viaduct, railroad realignment, and Union Improvement Financing (https://www. Station relocation in the context of the broader massdevelopment.com/what-we-offer/real- Greater Hartford Mobility Study, which will estate-services/technical-assistance/district- evaluate the tunneling alternative (http://www. improvement-financing). i84hartford.com/index). 12. For a full description, see https://www. 19. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new- worcesterchamber.org/economic-development/ haven/union-station-centennial-brings-65- projects-underway/. million-transit-oriented-development-deal/ 13. MassINC, Daniel Hodge and Ben 20. https://www.newhavenct.gov/gov/depts/ed/ Forman, The Promise and Potential of current/long_wharf.htm Transformative TOD in Gateway Cities; 21. The State of Connecticut provides competitive https://2gaiae1lifzt2tsfgr2vil6c-wpengine. TOD planning and implementation grants to netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ municipalities. New Haven received funding TTOD-Report.pdf. for both of its station areas, including a major 14. https://www.springfield-ma.gov/planning/ planning grant for the Long Wharf district fileadmin/user_upload/Blueprint_2020.pdf and its connection to Union Station. Other Hartford Line grants have gone to Hartford, 15. MassINC, ibid. West Hartford, Windsor, Windsor Locks, 16. TDI is a multi-faceted planning and Enfield, and Meriden. See https://portal.ct.gov/ implementation program run by the OPM/IGPP-MAIN/Grants/RGTOD-Grant- Massachusetts Development Finance Program/2015-TOD-Planning-Grant, https:// Agency (Mass Development) https://www. www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/ct-tags-11m- massdevelopment.com/what-we-offer/key- for-20-tod-projects, and https://portal.ct.gov/ initiatives/tdi/tdi-districts/springfield. DECD/Content/Community-Development/03_ Funding_Opportunities/Transit-Oriented- 17. CRDA’s housing initiative and projects are Development-Fund. described at https://crdact.net/project_ categories/housing/. A few projects located 22. For recent summaries, see https:// outside the frame of the map bring the total www.newhavenct.gov/gov/depts/ed/ over 2,000. current_initiatives.htm and https://www. newhavenindependent.org/index.php/archives/ 18. The I-84 Viaduct Study identified a partially entry/new_developments/. lowered and capped alignment for I-84, resulting in the Capital Gateway Concept Plan 23. http://www.bradleydevelopment.com/About_ (see http://www.i84hartford.com/documents/ Us/; http://www.bradleydevelopment.com/ pac/PAC-mar-2019/Capital%20Gateway%20 Customer-Content/WWW/CMS/files/BADZ- Concept%20Plan.pdf and https://www.courant. Backgrounder-March-2016.pdf com/business/hc-biz-capital-gateway-hartford- 24. https://windsorlocksct.org/wp-content/ i84-20190418-bsieod54u5evndsys3nywyt6gm- uploads/2020/09/WL-TOD_Vol-1_FINAL. story.html). In 2020, the state decided to step pdf; https://windsorlocksct.org/wp-content/ back from a preferred alternative and place the Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 22
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