The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield

Page created by Oscar Sharp
 
CONTINUE READING
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield
April 2021

The Economic Benefits of
Regional Rail Investment
in Metro Hartford-Springfield
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                                    April 2021

Introduction
This study presents a business case for two                   improvements, estimated to cost up to $3 billion,
proposed rail improvements in the Connecticut                 would boost speed, reliability, and access.
Valley region: the completion of the bi-state
                                                              The East-West Rail project in Massachusetts
Hartford Line and implementation of the East-
                                                              would connect Springfield to Worcester and
West Rail project in Massachusetts. These
                                                              Boston, and potentially westward to Pittsfield.
improvements, which intersect at the traditional
                                                              These services nominally exist today, but
regional crossroads of Springfield Union Station,
                                                              with only one train in each direction (Amtrak’s
would connect to other current and future rail
                                                              Lakeshore Limited), unreliable performance, and
improvements in New England. The analysis
                                                              uncompetitively slow speeds—about an hour
presented here examines the economic potential
of the Hartford-Springfield region and the ability of         Figure 1: Metro Hartford-Springfield
enhanced passenger rail service to help achieve               and the Northeast
that potential.
                                                                                                      Worcester
                                                                            NY
This report presents the study’s background                                                                             Boston
and key findings in a narrative format. A longer                                  Springfield
and more detailed analysis, including the
documentation of all assumptions, methods,                                                              Hartford

and results, is available in the accompanying
                                                                                                      New Haven
Technical Appendix.

The Hartford Line, a regional rail service                                             New York

connecting New Haven, Hartford, and Springfield,                                  NJ
                                                                                   J
opened in 2018, following a significant investment
in the corridor’s rail infrastructure and rolling
                                              MD
                                                                                                KEY
stock.1 The work remaining to be done includes
                                                                                                Northeast Mega Region
electrification, additional rolling stock, a
                                                                                                Northeast Corridor (NEC)
replacement of the Connecticut RiverVA     Bridge at
                                                                                                Counties
Windsor Locks, double-tracking of key segments,
                                                                                                Metro Hartford-Springfield
five new or relocated stations, and upgrading
                                                                                                Northeast Corridor (NEC)
the downtown Hartford rail viaduct. These
                                                                                                Rail Line
                                                                                                21st century Inland Route

 he analysis presented here examines the
T
economic potential of the Hartford-Springfield
region and the ability of enhanced passenger
rail service to help achieve that potential.
Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                                      1
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                              April 2021

longer than driving in mid-day conditions. While                   to the Northeast Corridor and other US metro
several alternatives remain in play, an investment                 areas, Hartford-Springfield has undergone
in the $4 billion range would cut nearly an hour                   a prolonged period of low rail use and low
off the Springfield-Boston trip, enable at least                   overall rail/transit use--both in general and
10 round trips per day, and provide comfort and                    among those who work in information, finance,
reliability. In Boston, the train would stop not only              and professional services jobs. These are the
at South Station, with its instant connections to                  jobs that are particularly attracted to rail/transit
the Red and Silver Lines and much of downtown                      connectivity elsewhere in the Northeast.
accessible on foot, but at the key destinations
                                                              3. A structural shortfall. Since 1990, annual
of Back Bay, the Longwood Medical Area
                                                                 job growth in Metro Hartford-Springfield
(Lansdowne Station), and the future multimodal
                                                                 has lagged far behind that of the Northeast
hub at West Station.2
                                                                 Corridor as a whole, representing about
Together, the East-West Line and the completed                   130,000 jobs not created. Job growth has
Hartford Line would reconstitute a 21st century                  been particularly weak in the key sectors
version of the old Inland Route—regular train                    of information, finance, and professional
service from Boston to New York via Worcester,                   services, accompanied by aging housing
Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven—which the                   stock, slow housing construction, and slow
region has lacked for decades. It would create a                 population and wage growth. In short, Metro
regional network of great versatility and economic               Hartford-Springfield has fallen structurally
potential, combining intercity service all along the             behind the rest of the Northeast Corridor.
corridor with high-frequency, transit-like. service in
the Hartford-Springfield core.3 The key findings of           The Economic Opportunity
this study may be summarized as follows.
                                                              4. Missing growth sector jobs. Conservatively,
                                                                 some 20,000 to 40,000 jobs in information,
Decades of Disinvestment
                                                                 finance, and professional services are
1. A distinct and consequential region.                          “missing” from Metro Hartford-Springfield
   Metro Hartford-Springfield is a distinct and                  due to the lack of regional and intercity rail
   consequential economic region, with a                         connectivity. With rail connectivity restored,
   population of 1.6 million, a GDP of $120 billion,             these jobs, which have fueled growth
   20 colleges and universities, two historic                    elsewhere in the Northeast, can be attracted
   downtowns, and New England’s second                           over time.
   largest airport. As a metro area, it would
                                                              5. Transit-oriented development. Between
   rank among the 40 largest in the US. Nearby
                                                                 New Haven and Worcester, the Inland Route
   Worcester and New Haven have combined
                                                                 rail improvements would serve 16 existing
   metro populations of 1.8 million. Yet the
                                                                 and future stations. Recent and planned
   Hartford-Springfield economy is isolated and
                                                                 development in these station areas suggests
   lagging.
                                                                 a strong market of interconnected residential
2. A gap in the rail/transit network. Metro                      communities, employment centers, and public
   Hartford-Springfield lost most of its intercity               destinations. A capacity analysis reveals an
   rail service, starting in the 1970s. Compared                 aggregate station area potential of about 20

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                              2
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                                         April 2021

      million square feet of commercial development                economy in response to climate change, and a
      and 30,000 housing units                                     gravitation to smaller, well-connected cities in
                                                                   response to COVID-19—would reinforce and
6. Economic benefits far in excess of costs.
                                                                   amplify the outcomes projected in this report.4
   Together, these two outcomes—the gradual
   attraction of 20,000-40,000 “missing”
                                                                   Context: A Region Structurally
   professional service jobs and the construction
                                                                   Behind
   of station-area development—account for
   an estimated $47 to $84 billion in directly                     This study defines Metro Hartford-Springfield as
   generated regional GDP over 30 years,                           a region of three contiguous counties: Hartford
   including $27 to $48 billion in wages. An                       County in Connecticut, and Hampden and
   additional $15 to $21 billion of indirect and                   Hampshire Counties in Massachusetts.5 As shown
   induced GDP is estimated as well                                in Figure 1, Metro Hartford-Springfield is part of
                                                                   the Northeast Corridor (NEC) served by Amtrak
The compactness of Southern New England
                                                                   and several regional rail providers, as well as
creates a natural market for regional and intercity
                                                                   the larger northeast mega-region stretching from
rail. Two emerging trends--a decarbonizing
FIGURE 1
Total jobs index
Figure
(1980 =2:100,
          Totalpercent
                Jobs Index (1980
                       growth    = baseline)
                              over 100), Percent Growth Over Baseline

160

150                     Corridor excluding Boston, D.C., N.Y.C. counties
                        Northeast Corridor
140                     Hartford, Hampden, Hampshire
130

120

110

100

 90

 80
      ‘80   ‘82   ‘84    ‘86   ‘88   ‘90   ‘92   ‘94   ‘96   ‘98     ‘00    ‘02    ‘04   ‘06   ‘08    ‘10   ‘12   ‘14   ‘16   ‘18

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2020                                                                    SOURCE: BEA, 2020

Figure 3: Growth Comparison (Compound Annual growth Rate, 2010-2019)

       Region                                     GRP                Population                Jobs               Wages
       Metro Hartford-Springfield                 2.9%                     0.04%               0.83%               2.08%
       Northeast Corridor                         4.0%                     0.38%               1.43%               2.34%
       Northeast Megaregion                       3.8%                     0.42%               1.29%               2.29%

Source: EMSI, 2020

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                                         3
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment - in Metro Hartford-Springfield
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                             April 2021

metropolitan Boston to metropolitan Washington                    oriented development as a strategy for new
DC with over 50 million residents. A core finding is              infill housing.
that, when compared to the rest of the Northeast
                                                                • As shown in Figure 3, the net result is low
Corridor, Metro Hartford-Springfield has fallen
                                                                  growth, not only in jobs but in Gross Regional
significantly behind in economic performance.
                                                                  Product, population, and wages—a structurally
 • Compared to job growth in the Northeast                        lagging regional economy compared to the
   Corridor as a whole (1.1% annually) since                      larger Northeast.
   1990, Metro Hartford-Springfield has followed
   a slower growth trajectory (0.6% annual job                Connectivity: Transit, Regional
   growth); representing about 130,000 jobs not               Rail, Intercity Rail
   created across Metro Hartford-Springfield
                                                              Is the gap in economic performance and
   since 1990. This gap is illustrated in Figure 2.
                                                              trajectory related to rail service? A majority of
 • In contrast with peer metro regions (NEC and               key NEC regional markets benefit economically
   nationally), and despite established strength              from a combination of traditional public transit
   in insurance and related service industries,               (buses and, in major metropolitan centers, rapid
   Metro Hartford-Springfield is defined by weak              transit); commuter rail (or as it is increasingly
   job creation across information, finance, and              called, regional rail) in the Boston, New York,
   professional services (including insurance, in             Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington
   which employment has actually declined).                   metropolitan areas; and intercity rail linking
                                                              key NEC cities. For brevity and consistency,
 • Constrained employment growth goes hand-
                                                              the combination of local bus or rapid transit,
   in-hand with an abundance of older housing
                                                              commuter or regional rail, and intercity rail is
   stock compared to NEC averages and
                                                              referred to in this study as “rail/transit”.
   significantly slower pace of new residential
   construction since 2010. The lack of new                   The Metro Hartford-Springfield region suffered a
   housing construction, as well as constraints               degradation of passenger rail service in the 1970s
   created by “missing middle” housing, create                and 1980s, coincident with its regional economic
   a drag on workforce availability and is one                decline. Metro Hartford-Springfield was hurt, like
   reason other cities have embraced transit                  other parts of the Northeast Corridor, by long-term
                                                              decline and disinvestment in general and by the
                                                              recession of 1988-90 in particular, and then by

The absence of robust,                                        the Great Recession of 2008. An asset that might
                                                              have helped the region recover and diversify

well-used rail service                                        (and that did help other NEC cities recover) was
                                                              missing—rail connectivity.

constitutes a major                                           Hartford and Springfield stand out as mid-sized
                                                              cities with regional rail service only at the “starter”
gap in the region’s                                           level and minimal, low-performance intercity
                                                              service. The Hartford Line opened in 2018; its
transportation network.                                       strong start, although overshadowed by the

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                             4
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                           April 2021

Figure 4: Comparative Rail/Transit Use

 Industry Sector                     Metro Hartford-                  NEC            Transit Ridership Shares
                                      Springfield
                                    Growth       Growth      Growth       Growth    Metro       US         NEC
                                    Since        Since       Since        Since     H-S       Average
                                     2000         2010        2000         2010
 Ag, Const, Mfg, Wholesale,          -0.8%        0.4%        -0.4%         0.3%     1.6%       2.7%      15.6%
 Transportation, Utilities
 Information, Finance,               0.1%         0.0%        0.7%          1.1%     2.7%       7.7%      29.4%
 Professional Services
 Education and Healthcare            1.4%         0.6%        1.7%          0.9%     2.6%       4.7%      20.6%
 Retail Trade                        0.1%        -0.3%        0.4%          -0.1%    4.2%       4.5%      21.5%
 Other Services                      0.3%         0.3%        0.6%          0.3%     2.0%       4.9%      22.9%
 Arts, Entertainment                 1.4%         0.3%        2.2%          1.4%     6.9%       7.0%      29.3%
 Local, State, Federal               -0.4%       -0.2%        0.4%          -0.2%    1.3%       5.1%      22.0%
 Government

Source: US Census ACS, 2019; EMSI

pandemic, provides an encouraging preview of                    • Information, finance, and professional
this market’s potential.                                          services constitute key growth sectors in the
                                                                  Northeast Corridor and mega-region. Two clear
The absence of robust, well-used rail service
                                                                  comparisons are evident in Figure 4. First, as
constitutes a major gap in the region’s
                                                                  noted previously, job growth in these sectors,
transportation network. Connections are
                                                                  while robust in the Northeast Corridor as a
missing—not only to Boston and New York but
                                                                  whole, has been minimal in Metro Hartford-
to the regional hub cities of Massachusetts and
                                                                  Springfield. Equally important is the difference
Connecticut and to the local transit systems
                                                                  in how these workers commute to their jobs.
operated by the Connecticut Department of
                                                                  In the NEC, 30% of workers in these sectors
Transportation (CTDOT) and the Pioneer Valley
                                                                  rely on rail/transit, and the US average is 7.7%.
Transit Authority (PVTA). Local bus ridership
                                                                  But in the Hartford-Springfield region, only
generated by regional rail connections is minimal
                                                                  2.7% of workers in information, finance, and
in these two systems.
                                                                  professional services rely on rail/transit. Put
 • US Census journey to work data highlight the                   simply, these sectors are fueling job growth
   challenge. Between 2000 and 2016, while a                      in the Northeast Corridor, are attracted to
   growing share of NEC workers were using rail/                  markets with strong rail/transit systems, and
   transit (an increase from about 20% to 23%),                   display high rail/transit mode shares. In Metro
   Metro Hartford-Springfield worker transit use                  Hartford-Springfield, these same sectors are
   remained limited to available CTDOT and                        not growing, and their existing workforces use
   PVTA bus service and decreased from 3.1% to                    rail/transit at strikingly low levels.
   2.8% over the same period. Even if we exclude
                                                                • While economic underperformance in the
   New York City (with its uniquely high rail/transit
                                                                  Hartford-Springfield region has a number
   mode share), rail/transit ridership across the
                                                                  of causes, our analysis found that missing
   NEC remains significantly higher (above 12%)
                                                                  regional rail access has led to a jobs gap in
   than in the Hartford-Springfield region.6
                                                                  the key growth sectors of Information,

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                           5
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                            April 2021

   finance, and professional services. This                   via rail/transit, only 12% of low-income Hartford-
   gap is estimated at between 20,000 and                     Springfield area commuters utilize rail/transit.
   40,000 positions that should have located                  Lower income residents are less able to access
   (or stayed) in the Metro Hartford-Springfield              regional opportunity afforded to other NEC
   region since 1990 but didn’t, due to limited               residents, linked to faster commutes and higher
   regional rail access. This finding rests on a              wages. There is a regional employment market
   statistical analysis of US counties and metro              of more than 2.5 million jobs within 50 miles of
   areas, focused on the relationship between                 Hartford and Springfield, but for area residents,
   the creation of jobs in the relevant sectors               rail access to those jobs remains very limited.
   and levels of regional rail/transit use, including
                                                              Rail/transit not only helps workers get to jobs;
   whether regional or commuter rail is present.7
                                                              it makes their lives more affordable in general.
When white-collar industry is concentrated in                 Data from the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey
places with good regional rail service, this creates          confirm that households with access to rail/
an opportunity for higher-paid “choice riders” as             transit can reduce their aggregate transportation
well as transit-dependent workers in those same               spending, freeing up dollars for housing, food,
industries to commute by train. This is a locational          and entertainment.
incentive that Hartford-Springfield currently lacks.
                                                              The Regional Market: A Series
The study also reveals glaring equity impacts
                                                              of Concentric Circles
associated with limited regional rail/transit
connectivity. While more than 33% of NEC                      From the perspective of Metro Hartford-
residents under the federal poverty line commute              Springfield, the rail market to be served
                                                              by the proposed Hartford Line and East-West
Figure 5: A Market of Concentric Circles
                                                              improvements can be seen as three
                                                              concentric circles:

                                                                • The “bull’s-eye” of Hartford, Springfield,
                                                                  and their shared resource, Bradley
                                                                  International Airport;
                           GREENFIELD

                                     WORCESTER                  • Worcester and New Haven—major regional
                                                 METRO
                           SPRINGFIELD           BOSTON           centers “one ring out” on the historic
PITTSFIELD
                                                                  Inland Route;
                           BRADLEY
                                                                • Metropolitan Boston and New York.
                           HARTFORD

                                                              Hartford-Bradley-Springfield. Together,
                                                              the two cities and their immediate hinterland
                    NEW HAVEN                                 represent a distinct and consequential
      METRO
       NEW                                                    economic location in the Northeast Corridor.
      YORK
                                                              Metro Hartford-Springfield’s economic attributes
                                                              include a combined population of 1.6 million,
                                                              a combined Gross Domestic Product of $120

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                            6
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                          April 2021

billion, 20 colleges and universities, two historic           future congestion. Some workers may choose to
downtowns 25 miles apart on I-91, and New                     commute from Metro Hartford-Springfield to the
England’s second-largest international airport.               two great metropolitan areas, especially if their
Its flat job growth notwithstanding, Metro Hartford-          post-pandemic work environment is a hybrid one
Springfield would rank among the top 40 US                    in which physical trips to the workplace are no
Metropolitan Statistical Areas in total employment.           longer daily. Metro Hartford-Springfield has an
                                                              opportunity to emerge not merely as a bedroom
In 2019, on the eve of the pandemic, Bradley
                                                              community but as an economic place in its own
International Airport handled seven million
                                                              right, generating rail trips as both an origin and
passengers, and its owner/operator, the
                                                              a destination.
Connecticut Airport Authority, was planning for
ten million. Bradley is located halfway between               An enhanced Hartford Line providing more
Springfield and Hartford, barely 12 miles from                frequent, more reliable all-day regional service
each downtown. While Bradley’s master plan                    would connect Metro Hartford-Springfield’s
encourages increased use of transit and rail by               labor markets, businesses, and innovators to
passengers and airport workers, transit/rail also             each other. With the two Union Stations and
has a key role to play with respect to airport-               intermediate stops at Windsor, Windsor Locks/
related economic development. The potential for               Bradley, and Enfield, high-performance regional
industrial and commercial growth at Bradley, and              rail would act as a bi-directional transit spine,
downtown transit-oriented development (TOD) in                helping to unify this compact regional market.
Windsor Locks, its “front door” and rail gateway,
                                                              New Haven and Worcester. With frequent, high-
is discussed below.
                                                              performance service along a modernized Inland
Metro Hartford-Springfield is roughly equidistant             Route, Worcester—New England’s second largest
from New York and Boston—close enough at                      city—would become more accessible not only
80-120 miles to lie in both spheres of influence,             to Springfield, but to Hartford, New Haven, and
but distant enough to need frequent, reliable                 New York City as well. New Haven would be close
passenger connectivity that does not rely                     not only to Hartford, but to Springfield. There are
exclusively on automobiles, given current and                 significant TOD opportunities, existing and planned,

The economic benefits of high-performance
rail service include labor market connectivity;
business connections for innovation and other
synergies; and the enhancement of tourism,
entertainment, cultural, and other non-work
destination activities.
Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                            7
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                                                             April 2021

in the Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, and New                             The economic benefits of high-performance
Haven station areas, with easily envisioned                                  rail service include labor market connectivity;
synergies among them.                                                        business connections for innovation and other
                                                                             synergies; and the enhancement of tourism,
The markets “one ring out” from the Hartford-
                                                                             entertainment, cultural, and other non-work
Bradley-Springfield core also include the Pioneer
                                                                             destination activities. What fuels these benefits
Valley north of Springfield, where pilot rail service
                                                                             is not simply mitigation of future highway
currently reaches Holyoke, Northampton, and
                                                                             congestion, but the need to decarbonize the
Greenfield.8 These communities—and their
                                                                             economy, which will place a premium on regional
several institutions of higher learning—are
                                                                             proximity and compactness. Moreover, one of the
integral to the “Knowledge Corridor” branding that
                                                                             commonly anticipated post-COVID adjustments is
Connecticut and Massachusetts have sought to
                                                                             a gravitation to smaller, well-connected cities.
associate with the Hartford Line. The proposed
Hartford Line improvements would lay the                                     If you can commute easily between Hartford and
foundation for improved infrastructure and service                           Springfield, or live in Windsor Locks and work in
extending past Springfield.                                                  Worcester, or live in Holyoke and work in Hartford

Figure 6: Station Area TOD Capacity, One-Mile Radius

                               Commercial square footage                      Housing Units                Jobs

                                                                              WORCESTER UNION STATION
                                                                            2,400,000      4,500          4,000
                                    SPRINGFIELD UNION STATION
                                5,000,000        9,300      8,300                                                BOSTON

                                     MASSACHUSETTS
                                                                 PALMER     650,000       1,800           1,100
                               ENFIELD
                   40,000       100           100                 NEW WINDSOR LOCKS 1,182,000                   3,200        2,000

               WEST HARTFORD                                        WINDSOR      77,500           200             100
         827,000       2,300          1,400
                                                                HARTFORD UNION STATION 2,400,000                 4,500         4,000
                       NEWINGTON
            750,000         2,000        1,200                  BERLIN 1,470,000        4,000           2,400
                                    CONNECTICUT
             HAMDEN/NORTH HAVEN                                  MERIDEN     172,000        500            300
         900,000       2,500          1,500
                                                         WALLINGFORD       487,000      1,300            800

                                                     NEW HAVEN STATION/STATE ST.
                                                    3,400,000      6,300       5,700                                    Existing stations
       NEW YORK
                                                                                                                        Proposed stations

                                Sub-total, existing stations        16,600,000          33,800              27,600
                               Sub-total, proposed stations          3,200,000            8,700                5,300
                                              GRAND TOTAL           19,800,000          42,500              32,900

Source: AECOM Analysis, based on CoStar, Urban Footprint, MassINC Transformative TOD Analysis
                                                                             SOURCE: URBAN FOOTPRINT, COSTAR, AECOM ANALYSIS

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                                                             8
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                          April 2021

or New Haven; or if you can run a business in                 That said, station area development is critical.
Springfield and routinely make day trips to New               The station area TOD opportunity lies in both jobs
York or Stamford or Boston; or if your business at            and housing, destinations and origins, particularly
Bradley International Airport can attract workers             with the labor market connectivity achievable
from Wallingford and Palmer—all by train, without             through frequent rail service. The Hartford-
the expense of car ownership or the future                    Springfield region has an aging housing stock
roadway congestion that will come with growth—                and sluggish residential construction, relative to
that’s a competitive advantage for the region.                the NEC as a whole; this is both a cause and a
                                                              symptom of weak employment growth. Residential
Development Nurtured by                                       TOD has a key role to play.
Passenger Rail
                                                              In assessing the TOD potential of a station area,
For regional and intercity rail, the traditionally            four factors come into play: connectivity, physical
defined station areas are the tip of the iceberg.             capacity, market fundamentals, and jurisdictional
Development linked to passenger rail has a                    support. The quantitative analysis undertaken
catchment area much larger than a quarter-                    for this study and summarized in Figure 6 is a
or half-mile “walkshed”; people drive to regional rail        station-by-station estimate of buildout capacity
stations or get there by bus, by bicycle,                     within a one-mile radius, based on land availability
by employer shuttle or district shuttle. Moreover, the        but adjusted to reflect market fundamentals
economic impact of connectivity inside and outside            (existing population and employment density,
the region is felt beyond individual development              rent levels, recent development activity) and our
projects or even development districts.                       understanding of station-specific connectivity and
                                                              jurisdictional support. It relies on data providers
                                                              including CoStar and Urban Footprint, as well
The station area TOD                                          as past studies, including a MassINC 2018
                                                              effort focused on the promise and potential of
opportunity lies in                                           transformative TOD in Massachusetts’ Gateway
                                                              Cities, which include Springfield and Worcester.9
both jobs and housing,                                        The projection of a robust future TOD capacity

destinations and                                              is consistent with real-world planning and
                                                              development in the affected station areas. The

origins, particularly                                         next few pages provide a brief summary of the
                                                              TOD “story” in the four major Inland Route cities.

with the labor market                                         Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven
                                                              are legacy rail cities, each with a historic Union

connectivity achievable                                       Station around which regional and intercity
                                                              mobility and station area land use were organized.

through frequent                                              Rather than the one-mile radius used for our
                                                              statistical capacity analysis, these narratives,

rail service.
Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                          9
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                           April 2021

each with a map showing recent developments                   In recent years, a wave of reinvestment has
and key future opportunities, focus on the half-              occurred within the station’s walkshed, including
mile closest to the station.                                  two transformative, district-scale, public-private
                                                              initiatives. Worcester Commons, a failed
Worcester                                                     downtown shopping mall, is being redeveloped
                                                              as the multi-building, mixed-use City Square.
Worcester has gained frequent regional rail
                                                              And the Canal District, an old industrial area
service to Boston, with 16 round trips each
                                                              south of the station, is reemerging as a mixed-use
weekday (pre-COVID) plus the daily Amtrak
                                                              neighborhood anchored by Polar Park, the new
Lakeshore Limited in each direction. The
                                                              home of the Boston Red Sox’ top minor-league
Worcester Line is the second busiest in the
                                                              affiliate. Both efforts have been supported by the
MBTA commuter rail system, with about 9,300
                                                              state’s TOD-focused MassWorks infrastructure
people making the round trip each weekday—
                                                              grant program, and City Square relied on
a significant increase in ridership since 2012.
                                                              Massachusetts’s version of tax increment
About 1,300 people board daily in Worcester,
                                                              financing11. There have been several loft-style
including some “reverse” commuters for whom
                                                              apartment developments, including adaptive reuse
Worcester is a work destination.10 The MBTA
                                                              and new construction. One loft building—the Edge
has made track and service improvements and
                                                              at Union Station—offers off-campus apartments
is planning a third track project to improve
                                                              for Worcester’s nine colleges. Downtown has also
frequency and reliability by eliminating freight
                                                              seen development of hotels, a multiuse center for
conflicts. Like Springfield, Hartford, and New
                                                              Quinsigamond Community College (“20 Franklin”),
Haven, Worcester is an “eds and meds” city,
                                                              and an in-town market.12
with 12 colleges and universities in the area,
including the University of Massachusetts Medical             In its 2018 study of the potential for transformative
Campus and its associated biotech research park,              TOD in Massachusetts’ Gateway Cities, MassINC
and several hospitals.                                        included Worcester as one of four intensive
                                                              case studies. Through an analysis of vacant and
Worcester Union Station is on the eastern
                                                              underutilized property, MassINC estimated that
edge of downtown and is a regional hub for rail,
                                                              with an aggressive public strategy and optimal
the Worcester Regional Transit Authority bus
                                                              buildout, Union Station’s half-mile walkshed could
network, and intercity bus carriers. The station’s
                                                              accommodate nearly 24,000 net new residents
potential TOD area is effectively cut in half by
                                                              (a nine-fold increase at that time) and nearly 7,000
I-290, with established residential and institutional
                                                              net new jobs (a one-third increase), achieving
neighborhoods and an intermodal freight yard to
                                                              a model TOD balance of 50% population,
its east. But the districts to the west, north, and
                                                              50% jobs.13
south of Union Station have attracted significant
reinvestment. The DCU Center (Worcester’s
                                                              Springfield
hockey, basketball, and concert venue) preceded
the restoration of rail service but has become                The revitalization of Downtown Springfield is a
an important rail destination. St. Vincent’s                  work in progress. A cornerstone achievement is
Hospital, opened in 2000, is the station’s major              the restoration of Union Station itself. Located on
institutional neighbor.                                       Main Street at the northern end of downtown, the

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                          10
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                          April 2021

Figure 7: Worcester Union Station Area TOD

Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes.

station reopened in 2017—a $100 million public-               Congressional delegation, is not only a catalyst
private investment that includes the corporate                project for downtown, but an opportunity for robust
headquarters of Peter Pan Bus Lines, the offices              rail-to-transit connections in the regional labor
of a major local architectural firm, and retail for           market.
passengers and the general public. The bus
                                                              A revived Union Station has already led to the
terminal is the hub not only for Peter Pan, but
                                                              conversion of two historic buildings to residential
for the Pioneer Valley Transit Authority’s bus
                                                              lofts and the proposed conversion of a third
transit system. The gap in the regional mobility
                                                              immediately east of the station, and two loft
network was embodied by the decades-long
                                                              developments along nearby Chestnut Street. The
abandonment of Union Station. Its renewal, with
                                                              new headquarters for Way Finders, a regional
coordinated support of the city, state, PVTA, and

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                         11
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                         April 2021

Figure 8: Springfield Union Station Area TOD

Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes.

housing agency and the planned restoration of the             (in the face of the pandemic) has yet to occur. The
historic Paramount Theatre and Massasoit Hotel                City is advancing a coordinated strategy for the
are in properties across Main Street from the                 “impact district” encompassing the Mass Mutual
station complex.                                              Center, MGM Springfield, historic Court Square,
                                                              and the streets and blocks woven through them.14
A half-mile south of Union Station, the $950
                                                              The casino, in addition to its on-site hotel,
million MGM Springfield Casino opened in
                                                              is planning a boutique hotel in the adjoining
2018. Designed to generate foot traffic on Main
                                                              historic building at State and Main Streets.
Street, the casino is diagonally across the street
                                                              Residential loft development has begun, and
from MassMutual Center, Springfield’s hockey,
                                                              additional such projects are being promoted
basketball, concert, and convention venue.
                                                              by the City, including the adaptive reuse of the
Although the casino attracted 10,000 visitors per
                                                              historic Court Square hotel.
day before COVID-19, the desired catalytic effect

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                        12
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                          April 2021

Springfield’s four downtown parks have been                   walking distance; a new neighborhood, Downtown
renovated, enhancing a pedestrian network                     North, is developing around the ballpark. The
that connects Union Station to other parts of                 Convention Center complex and the University
downtown. This includes the restoration of                    of Connecticut Hartford Campus, one of nine
Pynchon Plaza, the pedestrian link between the                colleges and universities in Metro Hartford, are in
MGM/MassMutual Center district and Springfield’s              the downtown, just outside Union Station’s half-
cultural hub, the Museums Quadrangle.                         mile radius.
Springfield’s other regional destinations—the
                                                              Three major revitalization strategies—all
Basketball Hall of Fame and several colleges
                                                              consistent with the principle of dense, walkable
and universities—are beyond the Union
                                                              TOD—are being pursued. One is to introduce
Station walkshed but still in the core of Greater
                                                              a significant amount of multifamily housing to
Springfield, accessible by train and local last-
                                                              enliven the downtown and create a greater
mile connections.
                                                              balance between jobs and housing. The Capital
In its 2018 Transformative TOD study, MassINC                 Region Development Authority (CRDA), in
estimated that the Springfield Union Station area             partnership with the City of Hartford and other
could accommodate 13,000 net new residents                    agencies, has spearheaded an initiative to create
(more than quadrupling its population) and nearly             2,000 downtown units through new construction
3,000 net new jobs (a 20% increase), achieving                and adaptive reuse. Since 2013, that initial goal
a 50-50 balance of population and employment.15               has been met; the 17 residential projects shown in
MassINC attributes nearly half of this station-               Figure 9 represent nearly 1,800 units completed,
area buildout capacity to “higher occupancy”—                 under construction, or financed.17 Most of these
reinvestment in parcels that, while not vacant,               developments fall within a half-mile of Union
have significantly underutilized building stock               Station, and several are in the station’s immediate
or extensive surface parking. This condition                  foreground in the blocks framed by Asylum, Allyn,
is especially evident in the blocks between                   High, and Ann Ucello Streets.
the station and I-291 (labeled the “Station
                                                              A second strategy is iQuilt, a public-private
Foreground” in Figure 8) and the “TDI District”
                                                              partnership to enhance and interconnect
(where the state’s Transformative Development
                                                              Downtown Hartford’s parks, cultural institutions,
Initiative for Springfield is focused).16
                                                              and streetscape. Consisting of both physical
                                                              investments and institutional communication and
Hartford
                                                              programming, iQuilt includes short, medium, and
Union Station is on the western edge of                       long-term elements.
Downtown Hartford. Its half-mile walkshed
                                                              The third strategy is to reknit the larger downtown,
contains the State Capitol, office buildings,
                                                              which is split by the aging, deteriorating I-84
the historic downtown core, a critical mass
                                                              viaduct and the adjoining railroad tracks—a
of civic and cultural institutions, and Bushnell
                                                              barrier to walkable, transit-oriented investment.
Park, Hartford’s central open space. Both the
                                                              A decade-long planning effort concluded that the
XL Center (Hartford’s hockey, basketball, and
                                                              viaduct should be replaced, either partly or fully
concert venue) and Dunkin Donuts Park (its
                                                              underground, in the next two decades. Either
minor league baseball field) are within short
                                                              alternative would require realigning the railroad

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                         13
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                         April 2021

Figure 9: Hartford Union Station Area TOD

Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes.

tracks a short distance to the west and creating              now finds itself at the intersection of a half
a new Union Station. The opportunity, illustrated             dozen major city-building initiatives. One is the
in the city-state Capital Gateway Concept Plan,               remaking of the station itself. In 2020, the state
includes restoring the truncated street grid,                 and City agreed to collaborate on a TOD-driven
creating several large development parcels, and               partnership for Union Station and its adjacent
extending the station’s TOD footprint west, north,            properties, including mixed-use development,
and south.18                                                  new retail, an enhanced multimodal rail/bus
                                                              hub, and a commuter park-and-ride solution
New Haven                                                     consistent with that vision.19 Directly across
                                                              the street, the City hopes to realize a privately
New Haven has two train stations in the urban
                                                              developed, mixed-income residential community
core, barely a half-mile apart. Union Station,
                                                              of several hundred units on the site of the
isolated from the urban fabric for decades,
                                                              demolished Church Street South apartments.

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                        14
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                       April 2021

Further west, but still in the walkshed of Union              and unlock 10 acres of developable land at the
Station, is Parkside Crossing, a multi-phase,                 convergence of downtown, Yale-New Haven
mixed-income development of 600 units.                        Hospital, and the Hill neighborhood. Reclaiming
                                                              this land will create dense, walkable new
Union Station is also adjacent to Downtown
                                                              development in the station walkshed. Immediately
Crossing, the state initiative to convert the
                                                              east of the Downtown Crossing alignment is the
expressway portion of Route 34 into an urban
                                                              site of the demolished New Haven Coliseum,
boulevard, restore the interrupted street grid,

Figure 10: New Haven Station Area TOD

Source: AECOM; for specific projects, see listing following endnotes.

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                      15
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                           April 2021

now a 4.5-acre parking lot, where “275 South                  (Most of this land lies outside the one-mile radius
Orange”—a dense, mixed-use, transit-oriented                  covered by this study’s TOD capacity analysis,
development including 500 apartments—                         reinforcing that for regional rail, even a mile is
is planned.                                                   a conservative gauge of a station’s potential
                                                              zone of influence.) The non-profit Bradley
Across the railyard from Union Station is Long
                                                              Development League, a consortium of the four
Wharf, where plans call for continued industrial
                                                              towns and leading businesses, markets these
use as well as new commercial, residential, and
                                                              opportunities; since 2010, state law has offered
tourism opportunities. With improved pedestrian
                                                              corporate excise and local property tax incentives
connections and an effective all-day shuttle, this
                                                              to manufacturing, research and development,
emerging district would become part of the Union
                                                              information services, and other airport-related
Station district.20
                                                              businesses that invest in the Development Zone.23
State Street, by contrast, is a walk-in station
                                                              Windsor Locks is Bradley’s front door. The Town
sandwiched between the historic downtown
                                                              has undertaken a downtown TOD initiative,
core and the Wooster Square neighborhood. It
                                                              organized around the state’s commitment to
serves the existing transit-supportive land use
                                                              replace and relocate the Hartford Line station
fabric as well as new infill development, including
                                                              to a strategic Main Street riverfront site. A TOD
two apartment projects, immediately adjacent,
                                                              study prepared for the Town in 2013 identified a
with over 500 units. State Street is also within
                                                              market for several hundred units of multi-family
walking distance of Downtown Crossing and just
                                                              housing and up to 88,000 square feet of new
a quarter-mile from the planned Coliseum site
                                                              commercial space. In 2020, the Town began
redevelopment.21 Together, the combined station
                                                              seeking a development partner for a mixed-use
areas include multifamily developments that are
                                                              site alongside the new station.24
recently completed, under construction, or in the
pipeline totaling nearly 2,000 units.22                       The Town and the Connecticut Airport Authority
                                                              are planning a robust shuttle service to connect
Other Corridor Communities                                    the new Windsor Locks Station to the Bradley
                                                              terminals. A broader “district shuttle”, solving the
This TOD narrative is rounded out with a look at
                                                              first-mile/last-mile connection between the station
four of the smaller corridor communities: Windsor
                                                              and the Airport Development Zone, would make
Locks (in its own right and as the “last-mile”
                                                              Bradley’s long-term economic development rail-
gateway to Bradley International Airport), Meriden,
                                                              accessible to the Hartford-Springfield core as
West Hartford, and Palmer.
                                                              well as other Inland Route and Knowledge
Bradley International Airport and Windsor                     Corridor markets.
Locks. The state-enabled Bradley Airport
                                                              Meriden. Meriden, a city of 60,000 located
Development Zone, located in the towns of
                                                              halfway between Hartford and New Haven, is a
Windsor Locks, Windsor, Suffield, and East
                                                              historic center of manufacturing and industrial
Granby, contains 2000 acres of developable land,
                                                              design. It is an existing stop on the Hartford Line
with an estimated net new buildout capacity of 20
                                                              and an example of the potential for TOD in smaller
million square feet of industrial and commercial
                                                              rail communities. The City of Meriden, with state
space—nearly double the existing inventory.
                                                              support, embarked on a multi-faceted TOD

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                           16
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                           April 2021

strategy over the last decade, including an on-               The TOD capacity analysis prepared for this study
going real estate market analysis, TOD-friendly               suggests that West Hartford and the future station
zoning, and the solicitation of developers for key            just to its south in Newington could accommodate
city-owned sites.                                             substantial mixed-use development, at a scale
                                                              appropriate to their town center contexts. The
Two catalytic public investments were undertaken:
                                                              West Hartford housing authority has already
Meriden’s new train station and, directly across
                                                              advanced two multifamily projects in the combined
the street, the conversion of a 14-acre brownfield
                                                              Hartford Line/BRT corridor; the larger, at 616 New
property into a central park known as Meriden
                                                              Park Avenue, adjoins a CTfastrak station and is
Green. Each of these projects included private
                                                              within walking distance of the future train station.26
residential development, and several additional
multifamily projects have been developed in the               Palmer. Palmer, Massachusetts, is the only
immediate vicinity of the station. In all, nearly 400         proposed station stop on the East-West Rail line
units have been developed, along with ground-                 between Springfield and Worcester. A historic
level retail and public amenities organized around            industrial community known as “the Town of
the Green and the train station. The TOD capacity             Seven Railroads”, Palmer is still a rail crossroads,
analysis undertaken for this study suggests                   where the CSX and Central Vermont intersect in
that Meriden’s station area could accommodate                 Depot Village. Both lines are busy freight carriers,
several hundred units more, as well as a modest               and Amtrak’s Lakeshore Limited passes through
increment of commercial space.                                (but does not stop) on the CSX track. Union
                                                              Station, an H. H. Richardson original building,
West Hartford. West Hartford is one of the five
                                                              lives on as a restaurant and landmark.
proposed new stations on the Hartford Line,
along with Newington, Enfield, North Haven, and               While Depot Village is largely built out at the
Hampden. West Hartford has three stops on the                 scale of a small town center, there is ample
existing CTfastrak bus rapid transit line(BRT);               underutilized land available for TOD. Palmer’s
the one at the strategic intersection of Flatbush             Community Plan identifies Depot Village, as well
Avenue and New Park Avenue is the location of                 as an expanse of undeveloped woodland along
the future rail station. This station area straddles          Route 32 just north of the village, as strategic
the boundary between West Hartford and                        development sites.27 The Town commissioned
Hartford; part of the station site and much of the            a TOD study in 2017, and the University of
potential development are on the Hartford side.               Massachusetts Center for Economic Development
                                                              has undertaken a separate study, citing both the
The City of Hartford, the Town of West
                                                              TOD potential and regional mobility needs as
Hartford, and CRCOG have been planning
                                                              justifications for a passenger station.28
for transformative TOD, with an eye toward
the expansive areas of low-density industrial,                Palmer’s location in the regional mobility network
retail, and auto-oriented uses in the immediate               amplifies its TOD potential, from a commercial/
station area.25 This pattern is replicated around             industrial as well as a residential standpoint.
other existing and proposed suburban stations,                Depot Village adjoins the only Massachusetts
particularly those between Hartford and                       Turnpike exit in a 24-mile stretch, and three
New Haven.                                                    regional highways—Routes 20, 32, and 181—

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                          17
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                           April 2021

intersect here. Palmer is the gateway to a 21-town            Households, businesses, and governments are
area that includes the University of Massachusetts            connected in a complex web of interdependent
at Amherst. Developable land is inexpensive                   relationships based on producing, selling,
by regional standards, and public policy favors               purchasing, and taxing goods and services. An
passenger rail service and an economic                        initial change in one of these creates ripple effects
development strategy associated with it.                      through the others. Initial impacts tend to create
                                                              revenues at other firms and employment for
Economic Impacts, Benefits,                                   residents and associated income, as well as tax
and Costs                                                     revenues to state and local governments referred
                                                              to as fiscal impacts. Figure 11 summarizes
Economic and fiscal impacts can be described
                                                              anticipated direct costs associated with planned
as the sum of economic activity within a defined
                                                              rail improvements. While costs are presented in
geographic region resulting from an initial change
                                                              2020 dollars, the effort presumes that required
in the economy. In concept, initial changes
                                                              construction would unfold over a five- to ten-year
spur subsequent indirect and induced activities.
                                                              future period.

Figure 11: Estimated Construction Costs for Regional Rail Improvements

Source: AECOM Analysis; CTDOT; MassDOT

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                          18
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                           April 2021

In the context of these estimated costs, Figure 12            In terms of direct benefits (in 2020 dollars), while
summarizes anticipated direct benefits associated             proposed infrastructure costs ($6.7 to $9.7 billion)
with the proposed rail infrastructure investment,             are consequential, anticipated economic benefits
specifically:                                                 are dramatic, with:

 • Attraction of new jobs in the information,                   • between $47 billion and $84 billion in
   finance, and professional services sectors                     regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
   across the Metro Hartford-Springfield region.                  linked to new jobs in professional services as
   Reflective of a five- to ten-year rail construction            well as jobs supported by TOD construction
   period, the projected creation of 20,000 to                    investment; and
   40,000 new jobs will be incremental, achieved
                                                                • fiscal benefits payable to local and state
   over a 30 year future period. While jobs are
                                                                  government in Connecticut and Massachusetts
   shown for Year 30, wage and output benefits
                                                                  estimated at between $3.8 billion and $5.4
   are presented as 30-year cumulative totals.
                                                                  billion over 30 years (assuming present value at
 • Construction of future transit oriented                        current tax rates).
   residential and commercial development,
                                                              In addition to direct benefits, we have also
   based on the cumulative, station-by-station
                                                              estimated (in Figure 13) the broader indirect
   TOD capacity estimate shown previously. The
                                                              and induced economic benefits, using input/
   economic impact of this projected construction
                                                              output multipliers from EMSI.29 Indirect impacts
   reflects detailed assumptions regarding floor
                                                              have been estimated for TOD development
   area ratios and construction costs, as outlined
                                                              and regional jobs in information, finance, and
   in the main report. While costs are presented in
                                                              professional services, across Connecticut and
   2020 dollars, unit absorption is expected over
                                                              Massachusetts. By Year 30, the annual GDP
   a 30 year forecast period. Construction period
                                                              attributable to this indirect and induced economic
   jobs are presented as full-time equivalents.
                                                              activity is estimated to be in the range of $15
                                                              billion to $21 billion.

The proposed rail improvements would bring
20,000 to 40,000 professional services jobs,
extensive transit-oriented development, and
$47 to $84 billion in new regional GDP over
30 years.
Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                            19
The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield                               April 2021

Figure 12: Estimated Direct Benefits Due to Regional Rail Improvements, Current $US 2020

                               Direct Benefits, Present Value                     Conservative      Aggressive
Direct Economic                New Regional Jobs, 30 Years                        20,000            40,000
Benefits, New Regional         Cumulative New Wages, 30 Years                     $20,094,000,000   $40,187,000,000
Jobs, Linked to Transit
Improvements                   Cumulative New Regional GDP, 30 Years              $35,428,000,000   $70,856,000,000
Transit Oriented               TOD Construction Jobs (Full-Time                   97,000            115,000
Development New                Equivalent)
Construction Investment,       Cumulative Construction Wages                      $6,799,000,000    $7,463,000,000
Present Value
                               Cumulative Construction Investment                 $11,332,000,000   $13,422,000,000
Fiscal Implications            Cumulative Property Taxes, 30 Years                $2,770,000,000    $3,290,000,000
                               Cumulative Income Taxes, 30 Years                  $1,055,000,000    $2,110,000,000
                               Total Fiscal Benefits                              $3,825,000,000    $5,400,000,000
Total Benefits,                New Professional Services Jobs                     20,000            40,000
Cumulative, 30 Years           New Construction Jobs                              97,000            115,000
                               New Regional GDP                                   $46,760,000,000   $84,278,000,000
                               New Fiscal Benefits                                $3,825,000,000    $5,400,000,000

Source: AECOM Analysis

Figure 13: Estimated Indirect / Induced Benefits Due to Regional Rail Improvements, Current USD

                               Indirect and Induced Benefits                      Conservative      Aggressive
Indirect / Induced             Jobs, Year 30                                      32,000            63,000
Economic Benefits, New         Total Wages, Year 30, Present Value                $1,621,000,000    $3,242,000,000
Regional Jobs, Linked to
Transit Improvements           Regional GDP, Year 3, Present Value                $3,521,000,000    $7,041,000,000
Transit Oriented               Jobs, Year 30                                      133,000           158,000
Development New                Total Wages, Year 30, Present Value                $5,268,000,000    $6,240,000,000
Construction Investment,
Present Value                  Regional GDP, Year 3, Present Value                $11,628,000,000   $13,772,000,000
Total Benefits, Year 30        Jobs, Year 30                                      165,000           221,000
                               Total Wages, Year 30, Present Value                $6,889,000,000    $9,482,000,000
                               Regional GDP, Year 30, Present Value               $15,149,000,000   $20,813,000,000

Source: AECOM Analysis, EMSI

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                               20
Endnotes                                                                                               April 2021

Endnotes                                                  5.    As defined by the US Census, the Hartford
                                                                and Springfield metropolitan areas include
1.   The Hartford Line currently provides 16
                                                                parts of seven counties, extending from the
     weekday round trips between New Haven and
                                                                Vermont border to Long Island Sound. For
     Hartford, 11 of which continue to Springfield.
                                                                purposes of this report, the three core counties
     The 16 trips are a total, comprising eight
                                                                (Hartford, Hampden, and Hampshire) better
     operated by the Connecticut Department
                                                                reflect the potential influence of the proposed
     of Transportation and eight by Amtrak, at
                                                                rail improvements.
     identical prices and with interchangeable
     ticketing. The bi-state Hartford Line enabled        6.    Data are from the Census’ American
     more frequent, reliable, and speedy service;               Communities Survey (ACS) data series and
     Amtrak agreed to add two trips to its schedule             represent a combination of bud, subway,
     and to honor the Hartford Line regional rail               regional rail, and intercity rail.
     tickets.
                                                          7.    The analysis estimates 22,000 jobs at the
2.   Alternatives 4 and 4/5 have preliminary                    conservative end of the scale; that number is
     estimated costs of $3.9 and $4.6 billion,                  rounded down to 20,000.
     respectively; they would reduce the
                                                          8.    The Valley Flyer runs from New Haven to
     Springfield-Boston trip time, with intermediate
                                                                Greenfield; the Vermonter from New York to
     stops, to an hour 40 minutes and an hour 30
                                                                St. Albans, VT. Both are operated by Amtrak
     minutes. See the MassDOT East-West Rail
                                                                in partnership with the affected states; as of
     Feasibility Study (January 2021), East-West
                                                                2021, they amount to three daily trains in each
     Passenger Rail Study - Final Report - Chapter
                                                                direction.
     1 - Executive Summary (mass.gov).
                                                          9.    Massachusetts Institute for a New
3.   See the Inland Route analysis in the 2016
                                                                Commonwealth (MassINC), Daniel Hodge
     Northern New England Intercity Rail Initiative
                                                                and Ben Forman, The Promise and Potential
     (NNERI) study, NNEIRI Study Summary
                                                                of Transformative TOD in Gateway Cities;
     (mass.gov).
                                                                https://2gaiae1lifzt2tsfgr2vil6c-wpengine.
4.   As noted in the East-West Rail Study Final                 netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/
     Report released by MassDOT in January                      TTOD-Report.pdf.
     2021, the existing ridership demand modeling
                                                          10.   See https://www.mass.gov/lists/2018-
     analysis does not (and cannot) capture the
                                                                commuter-rail-counts; counts are from 2018,
     potentially transformative effect of intercity and
                                                                the last full pre-COVID year.
     regional rail as part of an integrated regional
     development agenda. A long-term ridership            11.   For MassWorks, see http://www.mapc.
     analysis under such a scenario is beyond the               org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MWIP_
     scope of this report as well, but we can begin             Presentation-2017.pdf. This program was
     to frame the regional growth implications of               also used to provide state support for the
     enhanced rail connectivity.                                restoration of Springfield Union Station,
                                                                described below. The state’s tax increment

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                         21
Endnotes                                                                                               April 2021

      program for infrastructure finance is District           I-84 viaduct, railroad realignment, and Union
      Improvement Financing (https://www.                      Station relocation in the context of the broader
      massdevelopment.com/what-we-offer/real-                  Greater Hartford Mobility Study, which will
      estate-services/technical-assistance/district-           evaluate the tunneling alternative (http://www.
      improvement-financing).                                  i84hartford.com/index).
12.   For a full description, see https://www.           19.   https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-
      worcesterchamber.org/economic-development/               haven/union-station-centennial-brings-65-
      projects-underway/.                                      million-transit-oriented-development-deal/
13.   MassINC, Daniel Hodge and Ben                      20.   https://www.newhavenct.gov/gov/depts/ed/
      Forman, The Promise and Potential of                     current/long_wharf.htm
      Transformative TOD in Gateway Cities;
                                                         21.   The State of Connecticut provides competitive
      https://2gaiae1lifzt2tsfgr2vil6c-wpengine.
                                                               TOD planning and implementation grants to
      netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/
                                                               municipalities. New Haven received funding
      TTOD-Report.pdf.
                                                               for both of its station areas, including a major
14.   https://www.springfield-ma.gov/planning/                 planning grant for the Long Wharf district
      fileadmin/user_upload/Blueprint_2020.pdf                 and its connection to Union Station. Other
                                                               Hartford Line grants have gone to Hartford,
15.   MassINC, ibid.
                                                               West Hartford, Windsor, Windsor Locks,
16.   TDI is a multi-faceted planning and                      Enfield, and Meriden. See https://portal.ct.gov/
      implementation program run by the                        OPM/IGPP-MAIN/Grants/RGTOD-Grant-
      Massachusetts Development Finance                        Program/2015-TOD-Planning-Grant, https://
      Agency (Mass Development) https://www.                   www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/ct-tags-11m-
      massdevelopment.com/what-we-offer/key-                   for-20-tod-projects, and https://portal.ct.gov/
      initiatives/tdi/tdi-districts/springfield.               DECD/Content/Community-Development/03_
                                                               Funding_Opportunities/Transit-Oriented-
17.   CRDA’s housing initiative and projects are
                                                               Development-Fund.
      described at https://crdact.net/project_
      categories/housing/. A few projects located        22.   For recent summaries, see https://
      outside the frame of the map bring the total             www.newhavenct.gov/gov/depts/ed/
      over 2,000.                                              current_initiatives.htm and https://www.
                                                               newhavenindependent.org/index.php/archives/
18.   The I-84 Viaduct Study identified a partially
                                                               entry/new_developments/.
      lowered and capped alignment for I-84,
      resulting in the Capital Gateway Concept Plan      23.   http://www.bradleydevelopment.com/About_
      (see http://www.i84hartford.com/documents/               Us/; http://www.bradleydevelopment.com/
      pac/PAC-mar-2019/Capital%20Gateway%20                    Customer-Content/WWW/CMS/files/BADZ-
      Concept%20Plan.pdf and https://www.courant.              Backgrounder-March-2016.pdf
      com/business/hc-biz-capital-gateway-hartford-
                                                         24.   https://windsorlocksct.org/wp-content/
      i84-20190418-bsieod54u5evndsys3nywyt6gm-
                                                               uploads/2020/09/WL-TOD_Vol-1_FINAL.
      story.html). In 2020, the state decided to step
                                                               pdf; https://windsorlocksct.org/wp-content/
      back from a preferred alternative and place the

Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM                                       22
You can also read